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20260807 010000 UTC
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[00:19:49] which has fed humanity for millennia and not only
[00:19:52] affects our wallets, but plays
[00:19:55] a huge role in the global economy. Sergey
[00:19:58] Viktorovich Kiselyov, Doctor
[00:20:02] of Economic Sciences, Head of the Department of Agroeconomics
[00:20:05] of the Faculty of Economics of Moscow, Lomonosov State University, will help
[00:20:08] us understand this topic. Hello, Sergey Viktorovich. Hello. If
[00:20:12] we had a time machine, to what period would we need to travel
[00:20:15] to observe firsthand how
[00:20:19] wheat stopped being just a food product, and
[00:20:23] its cultivation, and especially trade, began to
[00:20:26] directly influence the development of states,
[00:20:30] the establishment of trade routes, well, and even the course
[00:20:33] of historical events? Well, I think these are very early
[00:20:36] periods. Because civilization grew on
[00:20:40] grain crops, let's say, during Stolypin's reforms Russia, as
[00:20:44] you know, this is generally considered the peak of the Russian
[00:20:47] Empire's heyday, the year, with which we always...
[00:21:20] well, yes, these were revenues for the state, so in
[00:21:23] the conditions of peasant Russia, when
[00:21:27] often the peasants themselves might not have had enough bread, but we still
[00:21:31] sold bread, with the exception, of course, of individual years
[00:21:34] there were, when there were very severe crop failures, well,
[00:21:38] look, Sergey Viktorovich, if we abstract from specific figures,
[00:21:41] let's say, Russia produced 100% of grain,
[00:21:44] what part of this went for export, how much 10, 15,
[00:21:48] 20?
[00:22:20] as they say, worth its weight in gold, in fact, that is, it is a convertible
[00:22:23] asset, wheat, well, you see,
[00:22:26] it's also very interesting that constant
[00:22:29] shifts are happening, if we talk about tsarist Russia, as
[00:22:33] you said, then rye was in the first place,
[00:22:35] not wheat, and rye bread was
[00:22:39] more popular, now where in Russia, yes, we are talking about
[00:22:43] Russia, yes, but gradually, now,
[00:22:46] for example, rye sowings are gradually decreasing, it is no longer as
[00:22:50] popular as wheat, wheat is in the first place now, unequivocally,
[00:22:54] if we talk about exports, yes, and then
[00:22:57] barley, barley is also important, as an important
[00:23:01] crop, but rather it is not for nutrition, but for
[00:23:05] animal feed, there is barley, uh-huh, there is
[00:23:08] a very strict division in oil, there is WTI - light
[00:23:12] oil, light grades, there is Arabian oil, there is
[00:23:15] a world benchmark grade, Brent, there is heavy oil, from which
[00:23:18] fuel oil is produced, from which kerosene is produced,
[00:23:21] aviation, diesel fuel, is there
[00:23:24] a similar division in wheat, and what is Russia's place in
[00:23:28] this division from the point of view of production, what do we grow? We mainly
[00:23:32] grow so-called
[00:23:35] soft wheat, is that good or bad? We grow what
[00:23:39] is in demand for our products, not what grows,
[00:23:43] you see, the thing is, for example, there is, there is so-called hard
[00:23:47] wheat, yes, in addition to soft wheat, if there is such a difference? What is the difference?
[00:23:50] Hard wheat is mainly used for
[00:23:54] pasta products, that is, it does not boil down as much, let's say, that
[00:23:58] is, is it easier to grow or is it harder to grow, harder
[00:24:01] to grow, yes, soft, well, soft wheat also
[00:24:04] differs, there are very different varieties, there are,
[00:24:08] there are so-called strong varieties, which are, which are
[00:24:12] more like, how to say, in terms of
[00:24:14] high quality,
[00:24:18] well, but what is currently...
[00:24:20] demanded on the market is not always high-quality grain,
[00:24:24] specially even I talked to traders and I personally
[00:24:27] discussed this topic with other colleagues,
[00:24:31] why, for example, do we currently have a lot of fourth
[00:24:34] grade, we sell fourth grade wheat, not third or
[00:24:38] second, the answer is very simple, the higher the number, the lower
[00:24:42] the grade, the lower the quality, yes, yes,
[00:24:45] that is, first grade, second grade is very little, third, fourth
[00:24:48] grade, fifth grade. also exists, and what is your answer?
[00:24:51] The answer is that it is in demand, that is
[00:24:55] the first thing, and the second, it is effective in terms of the ratio of costs
[00:24:58] and price, the demand is absolutely market-driven, market for soft
[00:25:02] wheat, but also of sufficiently high quality, but also for soft
[00:25:06] wheat of the fourth and a little bit of the third, and it is already
[00:25:09] naturally used as a food product, that is, bread is produced from it, as a food
[00:25:13] product, yes, bread is used, yes, you see, baking has also
[00:25:16] changed, there are enhancers.
[00:25:20] Enhancers of what, tell me a little bit about taste enhancers, there are
[00:25:24] enhancers for the dough to
[00:25:27] rise, for everything else, so there are
[00:25:30] various, various, so to speak, additives that are used
[00:25:34] for when making bread. How much
[00:25:37] Asia and the Far East, well, these Asian countries, primarily,
[00:25:40] probably not even China, but let's say,
[00:25:43] Indonesia, Vietnam, maybe South Korea, how much are they
[00:25:47] importers or exporters? In this case,
[00:25:50] of grain, how much is wheat really in demand there? Well,
[00:25:53] our main buyers of our
[00:25:56] grain, yes, are traditionally Egypt, Turkey,
[00:25:59] China, this trio, I would name
[00:26:03] these countries as the main buyers of our
[00:26:07] and who else besides China in Asia? In Asia,
[00:26:10] well, you know, there are already other neighboring countries, like
[00:26:14] Vietnam, for example, but it's all smaller there, with Vietnam it's
[00:26:18] developing, there are also discussions
[00:26:21] of this topic, to generally increase
[00:26:25] cooperation with Vietnam, other Asian countries
[00:26:28] like Thailand are increasing, this
[00:26:31] direction of the Global South is very relevant
[00:26:35] and in demand now, I think it will continue to develop
[00:26:38] and strengthen, well, I think that in the first place, Africa, probably, plays
[00:26:42] the role of a buyer of grain crops, well, Africa
[00:26:45] less, you know, now it is developing, yes, African
[00:26:48] countries are developing, but Africa less. It is an absolutely accurate
[00:26:52] fact that in the sixties, seventies,
[00:26:55] when there was not enough grain for
[00:26:59] themselves, the Soviet Union was forced to export wheat.
[00:27:02] countries of the socialist bloc, and
[00:27:05] developing its influence on the same Africa, on Latin
[00:27:08] America, using this as a tool of, well, soft,
[00:27:12] let's call it, although it is, well, yes, soft power, this is connected with
[00:27:16] the fact that indeed Russia, being
[00:27:20] a country that produced, provided itself with bread and
[00:27:24] even sold something, not something, as you said, 25%, in the Soviet
[00:27:27] Union the situation changed, the reason was this, now,
[00:27:31] how much does it play... the role of wheat export as that very
[00:27:34] soft power of influence, besides oil, hydrocarbons,
[00:27:37] yes, besides
[00:27:40] geopolitics, besides weapons,
[00:27:44] how much does wheat stand in the same row with these assets,
[00:27:48] let's call them such global and strategic now, well,
[00:27:52] you know, I personally did not evaluate it from these positions, I can only
[00:27:56] say that wheat is
[00:27:59] a very important export
[00:28:02] commodity for us, we always monitor both the harvest
[00:28:06] of wheat, we track, so to speak,
[00:28:09] assessments are constantly made, how much
[00:28:13] we will produce, produce, this year, especially, there were
[00:28:17] possible prospects that there might not be a very
[00:28:21] good harvest, and assessments were constantly made of how much
[00:28:24] grain we would produce, 125 million tons,
[00:28:28] 135 million tons were produced, 140 million
[00:28:31] tons, right? How does a person track this, there are some rough
[00:28:35] parameters, for example, there's a quick winter, a cold
[00:28:38] winter, a snowy winter, a quick spring, can an ordinary person
[00:28:42] try to estimate, now there is talk about favorable
[00:28:45] conditions for
[00:28:49] growing grain crops, now there was a lot of snow, there was
[00:28:53] a lot of snow and the snowmelt is going normally, so
[00:28:57] to speak, moisture remains in the soil, this is
[00:29:00] important for further growth, and...
[00:29:32] grain-producing, well, wheat-producing regions in southern Russia,
[00:29:36] of course, the Krasnodar Territory, Voronezh Oblast, these are very large
[00:29:39] producers, yes, but in
[00:29:42] Siberia, for example, Novosibirsk produces about 1
[00:29:45] million tons of grain, which is also a lot, yes, Omsk Oblast
[00:29:49] produces quite a lot, Tyumen Oblast also produces quite a lot,
[00:29:53] several, up to several million tons of grain are collected, Altai
[00:29:57] Krai also collects, maybe the yield is not very
[00:30:00] high, but the scale. The ideas are quite large, and
[00:30:04] there are about millions and millions
[00:30:07] of tons collected, and Siberia also produces quite
[00:30:11] large grain harvests,
[00:30:14] if you take, say, the last, well, 10
[00:30:18] years, yes, from the point of view of weather conditions, as we say,
[00:30:21] favorable for the harvest, unfavorable for
[00:30:24] the harvest, how many years were unfavorable for the harvest,
[00:30:28] well, in recent years I think we have been relatively lucky, with
[00:30:32] the weather. with the weather, yes, by the way, the last few years - this is
[00:30:35] four, the last few years - this can be said from the twentieth year, from
[00:30:39] the twentieth year, if you look at
[00:30:42] the chains of influence of the initial
[00:30:45] price of wheat on bread, pasta, of course, on
[00:30:48] flour too, here, probably, well, no, probably a direct
[00:30:52] path, on everything else
[00:30:55] on the same meat, on
[00:30:58] poultry, on...