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20260915 233000 UTC
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[00:00:00] going on beneath the day's big stories.
[00:00:04] stories. Now on BBC News Newscast.
[00:00:10] Newscast. The UK state pension is is going up and there are questions
[00:00:13] questions about whether the cost cost is sustainable. Lots of questions,
[00:00:17] questions, lots. To discuss and that's that's what we're going to do on
[00:00:19] on this episode of Newscast. Hello,
[00:00:22] Hello, it's Alex in the Newscast Newscast studio. And it's James in
[00:00:26] in the Glasgow Newscast studio. Faisal Faisal is here. Hey, Faisal. Hello. Hello. How you doing? I'm good, thank
[00:00:30] thank you. So we're going to be talking talking about pensions. Yes. And
[00:00:33] And we are going to be talking about about the triple lock. And the reason
[00:00:36] reason for this is because we had had some news on Tuesday about the
[00:00:40] the amount the state pension is going going to reach next year. And it's
[00:00:43] it's posed all of these big questions questions about affordability and
[00:00:46] and fairness and all the rest of of it. But before we get into it,
[00:00:50] it, just to set out what this is is all about, so the triple lock
[00:00:54] lock is a mechanism that was introduced introduced back in 2010 by the coalition coalition government, which guarantees
[00:00:57] guarantees that the state pension pension is going to increase every
[00:01:01] every year by either 2.5%. Average
[00:01:05] Average wages or inflation, whichever whichever is the highest. So tell
[00:01:07] tell us why this has become a big big thing today. So today we had
[00:01:11] had the average earnings figures figures for the correct time period
[00:01:14] period between May and July. And
[00:01:17] And this has been the months that
[00:01:18] that they choose since this began.
[00:01:21] began. And that came in at 3.9%.
[00:01:26] 3.9%. So that seems highly likely
[00:01:29] likely almost certain to be the number number that's used for the setting
[00:01:33] setting of the state pension via
[00:01:35] via the triple lock next spring.
[00:01:38] spring. So because it's likely to to be higher than the inflation number
[00:01:41] number that's reported next month month for this month, not 100% certain. certain. And there could be some
[00:01:45] some revisions to but basically that's that's what we're looking at now
[00:01:49] now 3.9%, which is a bit higher than
[00:01:50] than inflation, higher than 2.5%.
[00:01:54] 2.5%. And I think the best estimate estimate of the fiscal cost of this
[00:01:57] this over and above what's already
[00:01:59] already planned is about £600 million million a year, maybe a little bit
[00:02:03] bit more. Now that's not a vast sum.
[00:02:07] sum. And even though it wasn't formally formally in the baseline of the forecasts,
[00:02:10] forecasts, you know, it's the sort sort of sum that they'd probably
[00:02:13] probably expect. But I think what
[00:02:15] what it does do is that we have had
[00:02:18] had some interesting not so much much from within politics, but from
[00:02:21] from the axis, the very important important axis between economics
[00:02:23] economics and politics in particular, particular, the economists that have
[00:02:27] have been advising and like Jim, Jim, so sorry, just knighted him.
[00:02:30] him. Lord O'Neill and have been close
[00:02:33] close to the Prime Minister, have have raised questions that they you
[00:02:37] you know, they've never really liked liked the triple lock, but they've they've raised questions. So the
[00:02:41] the salience of the issue is there
[00:02:43] there about whether you do something something about this, not just if
[00:02:47] if you like to save money year to
[00:02:49] to year, but in particular to be
[00:02:52] be seen to be able to take on the
[00:02:55] the tough, unpalatable, unsolvable
[00:02:58] unsolvable political questions that
[00:03:01] that I think and I tell me if you you disagree with this, I talk to
[00:03:05] to economists. A lot of them thinks thinks it's totally unsustainable unsustainable and it's cost three
[00:03:08] three times as much as originally originally envisaged back in 2010 2010 per year, 15 billion roughly,
[00:03:12] roughly, rather than 5 billion. The The triple lock specifically has has triple lock specifically, rather
[00:03:15] rather than the state pension as as a whole. Exactly. And as a result,
[00:03:18] result, long-term over 3040 years years going forward demographic change
[00:03:22] change is still the biggest contributor contributor to the cost of the state state pension. But we're going to
[00:03:26] to go from 4 to 5% of the whole of of GDP for the state pension, up
[00:03:30] up to more like 9% and 1 to 2 percentage
[00:03:33] percentage points of GDP would be be the triple lock if that continued.
[00:03:37] continued. And you're going to say say to me that's ridiculous. It's It's not going to last 30, 40 years.
[00:03:40] years. But then you ask yourself yourself the question like, where
[00:03:43] where is the logical political stop
[00:03:47] stop to this, given that this is is what I was going to go on to say, say, you have the economists sort
[00:03:51] sort of in unison saying this is is unsustainable and frankly, ports
[00:03:53] ports when they're talking privately, privately, you have plenty of politicians politicians that say the same thing.
[00:03:57] thing. And then when you turn the the cameras on, they say something something completely different. Yeah.
[00:03:59] Yeah. And I bet Alex, I'd love to to hear your take on that. You know,
[00:04:02] know, you talk to a lot more politicians politicians than private than I do,
[00:04:06] do, but I wonder if the answer to to your question, Faisal, isn't a
[00:04:10] a little bit of what will what where
[00:04:13] where is the stop politically is
[00:04:15] is when younger people demonstrate
[00:04:18] demonstrate and however they demonstrate demonstrate that by maybe voting
[00:04:21] voting in larger numbers than they they have traditionally done so,
[00:04:23] so, or maybe by taking to the streets streets and protesting about it or
[00:04:27] or in some other way start to say,
[00:04:29] say, wait a minute, we are getting. getting. It's a cake, isn't it? Everything's
[00:04:33] Everything's it's just one big cake cake to really simplify your job.
[00:04:36] job. I'm sure your job Faisal's a a bit more simple than. It's just
[00:04:39] just one big cake and yours, Alex. Alex. But you know, OK, it's a big
[00:04:43] big pizza and younger people are are getting less of the pizza and
[00:04:46] and older people are getting more more of the pizza as years go. Go
[00:04:49] Go on. But Alex, to come back to to that point. What? Sorry, I should
[00:04:53] should have just shut up and let let you say it in the first place.
[00:04:55] place. What's your take on whether whether any of that, if that's indeed
[00:04:59] indeed either of you, accept that that as an argument and if so, like
[00:05:02] like do politicians privately accept accept any of that as well? Well, Well, I think the reason that you
[00:05:06] you could call this today a sort sort of renewed debate about the
[00:05:09] the triple lock is because quietly, quietly, yeah, there has been debate debate about how affordable the triple
[00:05:13] triple lock is in the long-term. long-term. But there is in this a
[00:05:16] a kind of economics question that that Faisal, you've outlined and
[00:05:20] and a political one. And politically politically speaking, we're still
[00:05:22] still in a position where publicly publicly every major political party
[00:05:26] party to the big Westminster parties, parties, to the Liberal Democrats, Democrats, the Conservatives, Labour
[00:05:29] Labour and Reform UK who did at some some point flirt actually Nigel Farage
[00:05:32] Farage with the idea of maybe looking looking again at the triple lock.
[00:05:35] lock. They're now saying they are are committed to keeping the triple
[00:05:39] triple lock quietly. There are some some who suggest that this might
[00:05:42] might need to be looked at at some some point, and you've had some publicly
[00:05:45] publicly come out. So people like like Michael Gove, conservative peer, peer, now saying that perhaps we
[00:05:48] we need to have a look at the triple triple lock. David Willetts, who
[00:05:51] who is the head of the Resolution Resolution Foundation, which is a a think tank for low and middle income
[00:05:55] income families saying doesn't think think that the triple lock is sustainable. sustainable. You know, Jim O'Neill,
[00:05:59] O'Neill, as you mentioned, Faisal, Faisal, who was advising Andy Burnham, Burnham, economists saying doesn't
[00:06:03] doesn't think the triple lock is is necessarily affordable or sustainable. sustainable. Those people haven't
[00:06:07] haven't got a rely on votes, have have they? In the same way that kind
[00:06:10] kind of frontline politicians, MPs MPs and leaders of political parties parties have. And I think there is
[00:06:13] is just a real consciousness that. that. Yeah, I mean, the kind of basic
[00:06:16] basic way of looking at this is older
[00:06:19] older people vote and therefore politicians politicians don't want to do something something that's going to wind up
[00:06:23] up a lot of older people. But when when you speak to. Me basic. You're
[00:06:26] You're calling me basic. I'm sorry, sorry, but you know, that's the kind
[00:06:29] kind of like assumed reason that that frontline politicians or parties
[00:06:32] parties my basic take. And now, Alex, Alex, you're going to give us a nuanced
[00:06:35] nuanced take. Well, I. Think when when you do speak to politicians politicians about this, there are
[00:06:38] are some that say actually, look,
[00:06:40] look, it's there are still a lot lot of pensioners who don't have
[00:06:44] have a lot of money and that pensioner pensioner poverty is still a real real thing. And that if you just
[00:06:47] just take the basic state pension, pension, if we're looking at what
[00:06:51] what it might go up to next year
[00:06:52] year under this new figures, it's
[00:06:55] it's about £13,000. So if you do do have pensioners relying on that
[00:06:58] that state pension, that isn't a a huge amount of money. So to do
[00:07:01] do something that might see it increase increase by less or not keep pace
[00:07:04] pace with the cost of living or how how much people are earning, that that could be really problematic
[00:07:07] problematic for pensioners on low low incomes. And if you look at something
[00:07:10] something like means testing, that that can become quite complicated.
[00:07:13] complicated. And the other political political argument against this that that you hear frequently is that
[00:07:17] that it's wrong to frame this as as a sort of generational warfare
[00:07:21] warfare between the younger generation generation versus the older generation,
[00:07:23] generation, and that it has to be be either or. Now counter to all
[00:07:27] all of that is the fact that there's there's a very active political debate
[00:07:29] debate about welfare right now. And
[00:07:31] And the exactly as you say, pensions
[00:07:34] pensions is a massive chunk of the the overall spend on welfare. And
[00:07:38] And yet all of the political debate
[00:07:40] debate about welfare is focused largely
[00:07:42] largely on working age welfare and and particularly health and disability
[00:07:46] disability benefits. And what can can or should we do about that? And And that is where some people might
[00:07:50] might say, is that really fair, that that the conversation politically,
[00:07:53] politically, openly seems to be focused
[00:07:55] focused on that without so much acknowledgement acknowledgement about do we need
[00:07:58] need to have a look at pensions in in the triple lock in particular?
[00:08:02] particular? So so I think that another another sort of angle on this and
[00:08:06] and what Lord O'Neill had said more more than just not liking the policy,
[00:08:09] policy, which he clearly, clearly clearly doesn't. And it's a very
[00:08:12] very good point there about the unpredictability
[00:08:16] unpredictability of it. Like whatever whatever you think, if you think think like we should devote more
[00:08:19] more resources to pensioners, you you probably want to do so in a more more structured way. That's predictable.
[00:08:23] predictable. That's not just dependent dependent one year on earnings, one one year on inflation because that
[00:08:26] that is quite distortionary. But
[00:08:28] But that is what has happened. But But Lord O'Neill specific argument
[00:08:32] argument went a little bit deeper deeper and is quite interesting,
[00:08:34] interesting, which is at a time where
[00:08:37] where markets are asking all governments governments around the world about
[00:08:40] about the levels of borrowing. Essentially Essentially that's what's happened.
[00:08:42] happened. The interest those interest interest rates are going up. And
[00:08:46] And one of the question marks lingering
[00:08:48] lingering about the UK actually are
[00:08:51] are borrowing numbers are going down
[00:08:54] down as fast as anyone else in the the major economies. But there may
[00:08:58] may be a perception about the UK UK as being incapable of dealing
[00:09:01] dealing with long-term structural
[00:09:05] structural issues. Things that are are not don't seem very sustainable,
[00:09:07] sustainable, not even able to have have a conversation about it. So
[00:09:10] So I think you're absolutely right right to point out that in this Parliament
[00:09:14] Parliament things are covered by by manifesto commitments, which is
[00:09:17] is why when we get politicians in in front of us, as I did with the
[00:09:20] the Chancellor last week, you sort sort of say, you know, can you even
[00:09:23] even you know, I was trying to sort sort of channel what Lord O'Neill O'Neill was saying. Can you even
[00:09:26] even have a conversation about what what this might be in a couple of of years' time? And if you were to
[00:09:30] to have a conversation that was different different for the set of manifestos manifestos for the whenever the next
[00:09:34] next general election is, you would would probably start having the conversation conversation now you'd be getting
[00:09:37] getting the OBR, the IFS or clever
[00:09:39] clever people, Beancounters and whomever whomever and representatives of pension
[00:09:43] pension organisations and young people's people's organisations. And you say, say, listen, how are we going to
[00:09:46] to divvy this up? Does it in some some way relate to our settlement
[00:09:50] settlement with social care? You
[00:09:51] You know, an overall sense of fairness
[00:09:55] fairness because what Lord O'Neill O'Neill was essentially saying was
[00:09:58] was as much as the pennies and pounds
[00:10:00] pounds you could save with still, still, it's just a slightly less
[00:10:04] less generous increase. It is the
[00:10:07] the directional steer you give to
[00:10:10] to everybody that a government in
[00:10:12] in the UK can have difficult conversations. conversations. Like credibility,
[00:10:15] credibility, right? Even with its
[00:10:17] its own constituencies. And it can
[00:10:19] can and it can deal with those issues issues and it can handle handle some
[00:10:23] some flak, but it can make arguments. arguments. You know, I think that
[00:10:26] that that is what Lord O'Neill was was talking about when he called called it a golden opportunity. And
[00:10:29] And to be clear, he was talking about about both the well, the conventional
[00:10:33] conventional working age welfare welfare bill and pensions. But listen,
[00:10:37] listen, I've just come back from
[00:10:40] from delightful exercise class at at the Southwark, just filming for for the six and ten o'clock news.
[00:10:44] news. I literally thought you meant meant you'd been. That's been your. your. No, no, that's highly unrealistic.
[00:10:47] unrealistic. Come on. No no. No but
[00:10:51] but like I was filming our sequence sequence for the six and ten o'clock
[00:10:54] o'clock news and you do find that that the generational war is overdone.
[00:10:57] overdone. You lots of pensioners pensioners are like, I really worry
[00:11:00] worry about the young'uns, but actually actually 13 grand's not enough. And
[00:11:03] And when you then vox pop young people, people, they are like, oh, we've
[00:11:06] we've got to look after pensioners. pensioners. And of course, the great great irony about this is the timing.
[00:11:10] timing. The younger people that are are campaigning against it. I think think what you can guarantee is,
[00:11:14] is, is that it may last until they they become pensioners, and then
[00:11:17] then they'll find out that they have have campaigned for their own pensions
[00:11:19] pensions to be smaller. So just out out of interest, Faisal, I suppose
[00:11:23] suppose I always like to think, well, well, if you take a step back and
[00:11:26] and you start from the principle principle of why is why does the
[00:11:29] the state do this? You know, what what is the role of the state? To
[00:11:33] To what extent is it the state's
[00:11:36] state's job to pool the collective
[00:11:39] collective wealth to a certain degree degree of the nation and then provide
[00:11:41] provide a certain degree of it to to people in retirement to do other
[00:11:45] other countries do that the same same way? Are other countries perhaps
[00:11:48] perhaps have systems that are more more tied to average earnings over
[00:11:51] over someone's lifetime and or rather rather than a state pension. Can
[00:11:54] Can you what's your sense of where where we sit compared to how other
[00:11:58] other nations do this and how other other nations look after people when
[00:12:01] when they get to retirement age or or don't? Yeah. The general we don't
[00:12:05] don't have a wildly generous state state pension and the triple lock
[00:12:07] lock as a policy over a decade and
[00:12:10] and a half has brought it up to sort
[00:12:13] sort of, you know, to, to, to levels
[00:12:15] levels that compare with similar
[00:12:18] similar countries in, in Europe,
[00:12:22] Europe, but I, you know, it's a natural natural role of any government to
[00:12:24] to pull these sorts of risks over
[00:12:26] over time. And I think the brutal brutal reality about this is that
[00:12:30] that there are lots and lots of young
[00:12:34] young people who are not saving enough
[00:12:36] enough for their pensions, who are are going to be significantly reliant
[00:12:39] reliant on whatever the state pension, pension, whatever remains of the
[00:12:42] the state pension in 20, 30, 40 years'
[00:12:45] years' time. You know, so there are are a number but you know, but this
[00:12:49] this story or the story of what the the current state pension is, is
[00:12:52] is very much seen through the lens
[00:12:53] lens of it's a fixed amount of money, money, pretty much it rises with
[00:12:57] with some form of inflation. We have
[00:13:00] have had very high levels of inflation. inflation. So this is accounted for
[00:13:04] for that. And certainly when you you talk to anybody and of course
[00:13:07] course we have to recognise that that you know it is paid out. But
[00:13:11] But you know some people obviously obviously have extra pensions on
[00:13:13] on top of that and they pay tax on on that. And that's a separate issue.
[00:13:16] issue. But you know, when it's paid paid out it's it people have do not
[00:13:20] not feel like it's covered the increase increase in prices that has hit them
[00:13:23] them over the past 3 or 4 years. years. I'll just put it like that. that. You mentioned taxes worth saying
[00:13:27] saying actually, because if the state state pension does rise to above above £13,000, which it's expected
[00:13:31] expected to from next year, that
[00:13:32] that would mean that in theory on
[00:13:35] on paper then it could become eligible eligible for income tax because the
[00:13:39] the personal allowance, at which which point you start paying income income tax is below £13,000. But
[00:13:43] But we have had some clarity from from the government on Tuesday, and
[00:13:46] and they suggested that people who who just rely on the state pension
[00:13:49] pension and if it's just over £13,000, £13,000, they're going to find a a mechanism at the budget to make
[00:13:53] make sure that those people aren't aren't dragged into paying income
[00:13:57] income tax on the basic state pension, pension, although we don't really really know. There was a little bit
[00:14:00] bit of that. Around this today, wasn't wasn't there? Yeah, there. Was the the Business Secretary, Jonathan
[00:14:04] Jonathan Reynolds sort of didn't didn't confirm that when he was doing doing what's called the morning round.
[00:14:07] round. You know, the interviews on on BBC Breakfast, he just said that's that's going to be a decision for
[00:14:12] for the budget. But then we got a a bit of clarity, I think later from
[00:14:14] from Torsten Bell, who is the pensions pensions minister, who did say there's there's going to be in something
[00:14:18] something the budget to make sure sure there's something going on just
[00:14:20] just above that. I well, well, the
[00:14:22] the what people may may be not thinking
[00:14:24] thinking maybe they're going to mess mess around with the threshold generally.
[00:14:27] generally. I wondered that. So that's that's the other obvious. That's That's why you've got some slightly
[00:14:31] slightly nervous. Answers around around it. Maybe they wait for the the budget and then increase the
[00:14:35] the threshold. So it is sitting at at that. But and just to be clear, clear, just to be totally clear,
[00:14:39] clear, when we say they would pay pay tax on it, they wouldn't pay pay tax on all of it. They'd only
[00:14:43] only pay tax on the bit that was was above the threshold. Right. Yeah.
[00:14:45] Yeah. Yeah. Just to be the threshold threshold to be 12,750. And this
[00:14:49] this is interesting because the triple triple lock is at this point no longer
[00:14:51] longer a triple lock. It's possibly possibly certainly it's a triple
[00:14:54] triple lock plus you could call it it quadruple lock because you've you've got the three things you talked
[00:14:58] talked about. And now it's like and
[00:15:00] and you will not have to pay tax tax on it if it's your own income,
[00:15:04] income, which is actually there would would be an argument for saying if if you don't want to change a triple
[00:15:08] triple lock, one way to sort of just
[00:15:11] just sort of level off the cost of of it is to let it kind of go into
[00:15:15] into the tax system and get back back some of the money that way so
[00:15:18] so that you could have that as a a strategy. That is a choice. If
[00:15:21] If you were trying to sort of level level off the cost of it. This is
[00:15:25] is all predicated on the notion that that we're not all going to die and
[00:15:28] and some sort of AI catastrophe, catastrophe, which Alex and I have
[00:15:31] have been talking about on Newscast Newscast this week as being something something that's significantly preoccupying
[00:15:35] preoccupying us. So we shall we say, say, Alex. Yeah, without a shadow
[00:15:38] shadow of a doubt. We were talking, talking, weren't we, on the pod earlier earlier about Darius Amadi, who is
[00:15:42] is the head of Anthropic, who was was kind of backing this call for
[00:15:45] for more regulation and all the rest rest of it. Faisal, you've been talking
[00:15:49] talking to another co-founder of of Anthropic. I think we can actually
[00:15:52] actually hear a little bit of what what he had to say. This is Jack
[00:15:55] Jack Clark. I think most most labs labs have different ways of being
[00:15:58] being able to pull the plug. And And yes, of course we have systems systems in place for this, but this
[00:16:02] this is the kind of thing that you you want to feed into the larger
[00:16:06] larger policy conversation. Should Should you mandate that companies companies definitely have a kill
[00:16:09] kill switch? And is that kill switch switch verifiable by a third party?
[00:16:12] party? I think that's the kind of
[00:16:16] of thing that society is going to to want to know and might want to to eventually pass rules around.
[00:16:19] around. But it may already be too too late. It's not too late. And
[00:16:22] And I don't believe that we're yet
[00:16:24] yet at this maximal kind of danger danger zone. But we are close enough
[00:16:27] enough that we need to be taking taking this seriously and having
[00:16:31] having national level public conversations conversations about it. So he's talking talking about a kill switch, something
[00:16:35] something that can just shut it off off completely. His tone though, though, I mean, what did you make
[00:16:39] make of it? Did he seem to you to to validate some of the other warnings
[00:16:42] warnings that we've heard from across across the industry? It's a very very interesting. So he's the boss
[00:16:46] boss of some of the whistleblowers whistleblowers and other. And the
[00:16:49] the other people that have made these these warnings of 10% chance or more
[00:16:52] more of human extinction. And he he didn't buy into that specific specific number. So it's quite typical
[00:16:56] typical of these sorts of labs. You You have all sorts of different opinions,
[00:16:59] opinions, but he's the guy that runs
[00:17:01] runs that whole sort of safety of
[00:17:04] of AI for Anthropic, which for those
[00:17:05] those that don't know is up there there possibly more successful than
[00:17:09] than OpenAI right now. It's kind
[00:17:12] kind of and potentially worth up up to $2 trillion if it if it floats,
[00:17:16] floats, it runs. Claude. Now, I he
[00:17:19] he didn't buy into the 10% number, number, but in a way, if you listen
[00:17:23] listen carefully to what he did say
[00:17:25] say was happening. And the takeaway
[00:17:27] takeaway is about as you've been
[00:17:30] been discussing is about an AI that
[00:17:34] that is probably cleverer than us
[00:17:36] us right now, just about a human
[00:17:39] human being and is on course to be
[00:17:42] be quite quickly, exponentially cleverer. cleverer. Definitely like a dozens
[00:17:45] dozens of times 100 times cleverer.
[00:17:48] cleverer. And the ability of humankind humankind to control that. Now he
[00:17:52] he runs, he helps run that lab and
[00:17:54] and that is what he's saying. And And you know, at this point we have
[00:17:58] have to express some humility as as journalists. You know, when I'm
[00:18:01] I'm covering complicated derivatives derivatives in the financial markets markets to, you know, there's only
[00:18:05] only a certain you know, we have have to ask questions and we have
[00:18:08] have to rely even on the people we're we're interviewing at the companies,
[00:18:12] companies, understanding the world world that they're describing. And
[00:18:15] And all I can say is I did interview interview him four months ago and and interview him now. And I was
[00:18:19] was let I left the room talking to
[00:18:21] to him, thinking that they have seen
[00:18:25] seen developments over the past 3 3 or 4 months that they are genuinely genuinely concerned and worried about.
[00:18:29] about. And yes, there are other motives motives and rationales and reasons
[00:18:32] reasons and things to question him him about, you know, rising from from your conversations that I questioned
[00:18:36] questioned him about. And people people should make their own judgement.
[00:18:39] judgement. But yeah, they are serious
[00:18:42] serious about there being a small
[00:18:45] small window of opportunity. Whilst
[00:18:48] Whilst this can be controlled. Of
[00:18:52] Of action, which then raises the the question which I repeatedly put put to him which is like well hang
[00:18:56] hang on, you just sort of jazz hands. hands. This is not you know, please
[00:18:59] please stop us. Please stop us. We We can't help ourselves. But like,
[00:19:02] like, well, you can stop yourself. yourself. And there's a number of
[00:19:06] of quite amusing analogies in the the interview where he says, well, well, if a plane wasn't safe and
[00:19:09] and then you'd do this. And I said, said, well, you wouldn't take the the plane. Was this dangerous? You
[00:19:12] You wouldn't get on it. Well, you you wouldn't fly it. You wouldn't
[00:19:15] wouldn't make it. Maybe, you know,
[00:19:17] know, so but yeah. What what is the
[00:19:22] the response though to and some newscasters newscasters may be. Listening thinking
[00:19:25] thinking this and you've alluded alluded to it there that wait a minute.
[00:19:28] minute. These people stand to make make huge sums of money that some
[00:19:32] some of these big companies are about about to float on the Stock Exchange Exchange or are preparing to float
[00:19:35] float on the Stock Exchange or thinking thinking about raising money. It's
[00:19:39] It's absolutely in their interest interest to talk up their power and
[00:19:43] and potency and threat. And, you you know, some people might say,
[00:19:45] say, well, you know, we've had tech tech companies talking about this this before. Look at the millennium
[00:19:49] millennium bug, which was apparently apparently end the world. And then then actually nothing happened at
[00:19:52] at all. And it's all froth like what? what? You know, that's the counter,
[00:19:55] counter, isn't it? That is the other other side of the argument. And sorry,
[00:19:58] sorry, in terms of what I meant to to add to that is and actually all
[00:20:02] all of this ripples out into the the markets and it has been having having an effect on the markets.
[00:20:05] markets. It has it's damping down
[00:20:06] down the markets a bit. And I think
[00:20:10] think ultimately I think the logic
[00:20:12] logic of that argument, it does mean mean that you would stress how powerful
[00:20:16] powerful your models are and then then how your models were the only
[00:20:19] only sort of, you know, potential
[00:20:21] potential medicine for this ailment.
[00:20:25] ailment. But so frightening are some
[00:20:27] some of the sort of forecasts as as to what might happen that they're
[00:20:31] they're inviting much bigger kind kind of intervention. You know, people
[00:20:34] people will contemplate quasi nationalisation, nationalisation, seizing the companies
[00:20:38] companies potentially on the basis basis of these sorts of threats. threats. I mean, if you think about
[00:20:41] about some new form of energy that
[00:20:43] that could solve our problems, hooray!
[00:20:46] hooray! But like kill the whole of
[00:20:48] of humanity at a at some sort of of fractional percentage of it, you
[00:20:52] you know, I'm not sure that would would get anywhere, right. I'm not
[00:20:54] not sure people would. Yeah. So I
[00:20:58] I like I like I feel they're so specific
[00:21:00] specific about some of the challenges
[00:21:03] challenges and they're inviting active
[00:21:05] active action from around the globe. globe. Asking for regulation, asking
[00:21:08] asking for to step in. But like where
[00:21:11] where I do have some where I am intrigued intrigued in, I don't think it's
[00:21:15] it's straightforwardly like they're they're trying to boost their value
[00:21:18] value ahead of an IPO. In many ways ways it might be easier ahead of
[00:21:21] of a flotation to be slightly less
[00:21:24] less apocalyptic, where I have some some where I'm intrigued and you you can see in the interview it's
[00:21:28] it's on the iPlayer, it's on YouTube YouTube where I was intrigued by
[00:21:32] by the answer. I'll just put it like like that was when I said, well, well, hang on, the real challenge
[00:21:36] challenge for you with these Chinese Chinese models that are coming out
[00:21:39] out that are essentially very, very
[00:21:41] very cheap and they're 90% as effective
[00:21:45] effective and I thought his answer answer to that was quite intriguing. intriguing. He said that they were
[00:21:48] were a year behind, but like they they are facing competition. And
[00:21:52] And the question is there's a if if you take a step back, there's there's a big model here which is
[00:21:55] is the US is chucking money via the the stock market via the capital
[00:21:59] capital markets at being the absolute absolute cutting edge frontier of
[00:22:02] of AI, the best AI in the world. world. Whereas the Chinese are sort
[00:22:06] sort of trying to create quite a
[00:22:07] a cheap, effective AI. That's that
[00:22:10] that is usable for most use cases.
[00:22:13] cases. And I do still I've said it it before on Newscast, it is astonishing
[00:22:16] astonishing to think that many US
[00:22:20] US multinationals are basing some some of their AI on these Chinese
[00:22:23] Chinese derived models, which is is what's happening. So interesting.
[00:22:25] interesting. And yes, listen to Faisal's Faisal's full interview with Jack Jack Clark on BBC iPlayer. Faisal,
[00:22:29] Faisal, thank you so much. Thank Thank you. Well, that's all from
[00:22:33] from this episode right here. But But we did record a bit more. And
[00:22:37] And if you want to hear that, you you should go to BBC Sounds where
[00:22:40] where you can also subscribe to newscasts. newscasts. But that's it from me
[00:22:42] me and
[00:24:43] truth, trust and fake news on BBC
[00:24:45] BBC News. There is nothing like driving
[00:24:53] driving into a moving story and not not knowing what is going to happen
[00:24:56] happen when we enter Damascus. It It was full of rebels shooting in
[00:24:59] in the air in celebration. You can can hear the sound of celebratory
[00:25:02] celebratory gunfire. Nobody knew knew what was going to happen. And
[00:25:05] And I live for those moments. These These troops are heading into the
[00:25:07] the battle zone in Khartoum, says says the army to carry out a special
[00:25:11] special operation. Entering Khartoum Khartoum after the Sudanese army
[00:25:14] army recaptured it was a seminal seminal moment. The level of destruction
[00:25:17] destruction was stunning. It was was the largest market in Sudan.
[00:25:20] Sudan. But you can see the level level of destruction now. When things
[00:25:23] things become volatile and unpredictable, unpredictable, it's crucial to stay
[00:25:27] stay focused. There's a standoff
[00:25:30] standoff between police and protesters protesters here after another police
[00:25:33] police shooting of a black man in in Minnesota. Sometimes meeting someone
[00:25:36] someone on the ground can change change how you understand a story.
[00:25:39] story. I'm thinking of a number of of women that I met in Sudan talking
[00:25:43] talking about the hardships they
[00:25:45] they experienced. Covering these
[00:25:49] these stories over the years has has impressed upon me how resilient
[00:25:52] resilient people are. And yes, many many of them are desperate and exhausted,
[00:25:55] exhausted, but many of them are also also steadfast. They're gracious
[00:25:59] gracious and they're generous. Journalism Journalism is about being there.
[00:26:02] there. As events unfold and telling telling people not only what happened
[00:26:05] happened but why it matters and what
[00:26:07] what it means. History happens in
[00:26:10] in real time and someone needs to
[00:26:12] to be there to witness it. Thwaites
[00:26:21] Thwaites Glacier It's an incredibly incredibly alluring and attractive
[00:26:23] attractive place to go. I was really
[00:26:25] really excited to visit because every every coastline in the world will
[00:26:28] will be changed by what happens in in that part of Antarctica, so it's
[00:26:32] it's all the more important that that we get there with our cameras cameras and show people the changes
[00:26:36] changes that are taking place. So So we've been filming out here for
[00:26:39] for an hour and a half and this is
[00:26:42] is the result. And it gives you an an idea of why it's so hard to operate
[00:26:46] operate here. But there's also a a story about getting to where we're
[00:26:49] we're going. It took us five weeks weeks to get to the front of the the glacier. Only four people had
[00:26:53] had ever been there before. It has has taken years of preparation to
[00:26:56] to get the scientists out here, and and because of all the delays. What
[00:26:59] What I didn't expect was to be camping camping on ice for five weeks. It's
[00:27:03] It's shocking. And you know, we should should all be upset by what what's
[00:27:07] what's happening here? This is a a really important story. This is is something people need to know.
[00:27:10] know. But again, if we can understand
[00:27:12] understand it, we can do something
[00:27:15] something about it. One thing I can
[00:27:21] can say which is true of this region region is that it's become harder
[00:27:24] harder to be a journalist. It's really
[00:27:27] really important to be on the ground ground if that means you've got to
[00:27:31] to go to hostile remote places, then
[00:27:33] then we have to do that. That's the the opium resin is a very pungent
[00:27:37] pungent smell of it in the air right
[00:27:38] right now. The delta wave of Covid
[00:27:41] Covid devastated India, and I think think it was the coverage that we
[00:27:44] we did for the BBC at the time which
[00:27:48] which brought international attention attention to what's happening here
[00:27:50] here could affect the world's ability ability to recover from the pandemic.
[00:27:54] pandemic. We've met with families families who've had to do the unthinkable.
[00:27:57] unthinkable. Another person came came up and asked if we'd like to
[00:28:00] to buy their child. The desperation
[00:28:02] desperation is hard to put in words. words. Many of the stories we've
[00:28:05] we've had to tell are distressing. distressing. They're difficult, but
[00:28:09] but that's usually an indicator that
[00:28:11] that they're really important stories
[00:28:14] stories to tell.
[00:29:03] MUSIC
[00:30:10] Live from Washington. This is
[00:30:12] BBC News. The UN issues a warning
[00:30:15] warning about the humanitarian crisis crisis in Yemen as the Houthis and
[00:30:18] and Saudi forces exchange large-scale large-scale drone and missile attacks,
[00:30:22] attacks, forcing more than 100,000 100,000 people from their homes.
[00:30:26] homes. The Pentagon says US Space Space Force has positioned weapons
[00:30:30] weapons in Earth's orbit that are are capable of destroying hostile
[00:30:33] hostile threats. An AI leaders gather
[00:30:36] gather at summits on both sides of of the country as President Trump
[00:30:39] Trump continues to downplay growing
[00:30:42] growing concerns about the technology.
[00:30:53] technology. I'm Helena Humphrey good good to have you with us. We begin begin in the Middle East, where the
[00:30:57] the UN is warning that the humanitarian humanitarian crisis in Yemen