BBCNEWS — Verified Live
20260917 140000 UTC
522 transcript segments
Original Broadcaster Captioning (Enhanced)
Data courtesy of The GDELT Project (https://www.gdeltproject.org/), from the Internet Archive TV News Archive.
Machine transcription. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a verbatim quotation record.

[00:00:02] MUSIC
[00:00:12] Live from London. This is BBC News.
[00:00:18] News. King Charles urges Silicon Silicon Valley bosses to develop
[00:00:20] develop sufficient controls for AI
[00:00:22] AI amid fresh calls for safeguards safeguards from another senior tech
[00:00:27] tech figure. Those in our world who
[00:00:30] who value deeply our humanity and
[00:00:32] and its vital moral component are
[00:00:35] are anxiously seeking your reassurance
[00:00:38] reassurance that we will not lose lose control of our destiny or our
[00:00:42] our souls. We're essentially seeding
[00:00:45] seeding a new silicon species which which will no doubt compete with
[00:00:49] with us for resources. Buckingham Buckingham Palace is in a war of
[00:00:53] of words with Princess Diana's brother brother over his controversial memoir
[00:00:57] memoir about her life and death.
[00:00:59] death. South African police say they they found a ninth woman killed near
[00:01:04] near Johannesburg in a spate of murders, murders, causing fear and outrage
[00:01:07] outrage in the country. The Bank
[00:01:09] Bank of England holds interest rates
[00:01:12] rates at 3.75%. We'll assess the
[00:01:14] the state of the global economy as as the Iran war pushes continues
[00:01:18] continues to push up energy costs.
[00:01:21] costs. And the boss of the social social media company Snapchat tells
[00:01:24] tells the BBC the firm would be willing willing to implement time limits
[00:01:28] limits for teenagers.
[00:01:40] Hello and welcome to BBC News. King Charles has urged tech bosses
[00:01:44] bosses to develop a sufficient means
[00:01:46] means of controlling artificial intelligence intelligence before, in his words,
[00:01:50] words, it's all too late. His warning warning while hosting a gathering
[00:01:53] gathering of AI executives in Scotland, Scotland, follows the latest alert
[00:01:57] alert about the rapidly developing developing technology. Microsoft's
[00:02:00] Microsoft's AI chief has told the the BBC he believes the world is
[00:02:03] is seeing the development of a new
[00:02:05] new silicon species that could compete compete with humans. We'll bring
[00:02:08] bring you more of that interview interview here in just a moment.
[00:02:12] moment. But addressing representatives representatives from some of the the world's biggest AI developers,
[00:02:16] developers, including Nvidia, Google, Google, DeepMind, OpenAI, Anthropic
[00:02:19] Anthropic and others, the King said said he believed in ensuring humanity
[00:02:23] humanity remains sacred. The substantive substantive discussions are taking
[00:02:26] taking place privately, but here's here's what some of the King was
[00:02:29] was saying as he opened today's meeting.
[00:02:33] meeting. AI is already showing its
[00:02:35] its immense capacity to improve and
[00:02:38] and save life. For example, in the
[00:02:41] the field of life sciences and medicine.
[00:02:44] medicine. Yet those who have created
[00:02:47] created these technologies are now now increasingly warning that AI
[00:02:51] AI risks developing darker capacities,
[00:02:54] capacities, perhaps even to take
[00:02:57] take life. And in this regard, if
[00:02:59] if I may say so, there seems urgency
[00:03:03] urgency in adequately considering
[00:03:05] considering the existential dangers dangers of such technologies falling
[00:03:08] falling into the wrong hands. Well,
[00:03:11] Well, the CEO of Microsoft AI has
[00:03:15] has told BBC Radio 4 this is a warning warning shot moment in the development
[00:03:18] development of AI, and there's every every risk that we might lose control
[00:03:22] control of it unless it's regulated,
[00:03:25] regulated, resulting in Silicon Valley Valley species competing with humans.
[00:03:28] humans. I think that if we all create
[00:03:31] create AI's that are able to act
[00:03:34] act autonomously, that can define define their own objectives, that
[00:03:37] that can earn money, that can own
[00:03:40] own assets, that could run businesses,
[00:03:42] businesses, we're essentially seeding seeding a new silicon species, which
[00:03:46] which will no doubt compete with with us for resources no matter how
[00:03:50] how much it cares about humanity
[00:03:51] humanity and loves us, which is,
[00:03:54] is, I think, Anthropic's intention.
[00:03:56] intention. I think that is a mistaken mistaken and misguided, but we have
[00:04:00] have to empirically test it. And And so if they believe that this
[00:04:03] this is a safer route to developing developing AI's, then they have to
[00:04:06] to share the data to prove that.
[00:04:08] that. We've just witnessed a watershed
[00:04:10] watershed moment in the development development of AI and a model that
[00:04:14] that was being trained by OpenAI
[00:04:18] OpenAI inadvertently hacked into
[00:04:20] into Hugging Face, which is a public
[00:04:22] public website that runs evaluations
[00:04:25] evaluations and benchmarks for testing
[00:04:27] testing these agents. The swarm of
[00:04:30] of agents co-ordinated together.
[00:04:33] together. They organised themselves themselves into hierarchies. They
[00:04:36] They created a division of labour, labour, and so they've developed
[00:04:39] developed very, very complex behaviour.
[00:04:41] behaviour. Now the good news is this
[00:04:44] this was OpenAI developing a model
[00:04:47] model deliberately with the guardrails guardrails turned off. Well, with
[00:04:50] with me is our AI correspondent Marc
[00:04:52] Marc Cieslak. And Mark, this summit summit couldn't be more timely with
[00:04:56] with an avalanche of warnings that that we've had. Yeah. AI has been been making headlines all summer
[00:05:00] summer for all the wrong reasons. reasons. AI agents going rogue and
[00:05:03] and breaking out of their training training environments. And just days
[00:05:06] days before the King's Summit, Anthropic's Anthropic's own CEO Dario Amodei,
[00:05:09] Amodei, alongside Sam Altman of OpenAI OpenAI and Elon Musk, called for
[00:05:12] for a slowdown in the development development of AI. We've had safety
[00:05:16] safety researchers at these companies companies posting publicly that they they believe there's more than a
[00:05:19] a 10% chance AI could kill all humans
[00:05:23] humans within a decade. Some industry
[00:05:25] industry observers, though, say that that this apocalyptic AI talk is
[00:05:29] is actually marketing intended to to increase the valuation of these
[00:05:32] these companies as they prepare for
[00:05:34] for mega IPOs. Hype or not? These
[00:05:37] These warnings seem to have struck struck a real chord across the globe.
[00:05:41] globe. And massive questions now
[00:05:43] now about how you can slow progress. progress. Can you slow progress?
[00:05:47] progress? How you regulate? Yeah. Yeah. Regulation now regulation is
[00:05:50] is an incredibly controversial subject
[00:05:53] subject in AI circles. President President Trump recently said the
[00:05:56] the US already has enough regulatory
[00:05:58] regulatory and criminal powers to to hold AI companies accountable,
[00:06:02] accountable, and that more guardrails guardrails would undermine American
[00:06:05] American competitiveness. The reality
[00:06:06] reality is that the US doesn't have
[00:06:09] have one comprehensive rule or law law like the EU does. Regulations
[00:06:13] Regulations spread across existing existing laws, different federal federal agencies and different states.
[00:06:16] states. That's why we're seeing a a bit of a split at the moment. Some
[00:06:19] Some of the biggest AI companies companies are calling for more safety
[00:06:22] safety measures for a variety of
[00:06:23] of reasons. Some of them no doubt doubt commercial, but also we've
[00:06:27] we've got the White House saying saying that this there's a bigger
[00:06:30] bigger risk that if they have greater,
[00:06:33] greater, greater regulation, they'll they'll fall behind China. And exactly
[00:06:36] exactly on that point, you have an an American President who says, basically
[00:06:39] basically we just have to win AI.
[00:06:41] AI. And where are the Chinese, the the massive competitor in this race
[00:06:45] race in all of this conversation? conversation? Well. China has a massive
[00:06:48] massive amount of capability that that perhaps the West doesn't have
[00:06:51] have in certain arenas. And when when it comes to AI for a very, very
[00:06:55] very long time, it was thought that that the Chinese was a considerable
[00:06:58] considerable distance behind in terms terms of technology. That now isn't isn't the case. A lot of industry
[00:07:02] industry observers say that there's there's more or less parity between
[00:07:05] between Western technology and Chinese Chinese technology. They've caught caught up very, very fast and they
[00:07:09] they are incredibly capable. And And it's being framed in Western
[00:07:13] Western circles as a new Cold War, War, if you like, or a new arms race.
[00:07:16] race. The country that controls AI
[00:07:18] AI will have a leading position in in the world moving forward. Mark,
[00:07:21] Mark, thanks for taking us through through all of that. Much more on
[00:07:25] on that summit a little later. Now Now Buckingham Palace is in a war
[00:07:28] war of words with Earl Spencer, the the brother of the late Diana, Princess
[00:07:32] Princess of Wales, over his controversial controversial memoir about her life
[00:07:35] life and death. In the book, Earl Earl Spencer claims that soon after
[00:07:38] after Diana died, Charles told him
[00:07:40] him that she would be soon forgotten. forgotten. In an unusually strong
[00:07:44] strong response, the palace has hit hit back, saying the pain of fraternal
[00:07:48] fraternal grief can cloud reason reason and colour memory. Here's
[00:07:50] Here's our senior royal correspondent
[00:07:53] correspondent Daniela Relph. It is is the content of Earl Spencer's
[00:07:56] Spencer's book about his sister that that has driven Buckingham Palace
[00:07:59] Palace to issue an unusually robust
[00:08:01] robust response. Earl Spencer writes
[00:08:03] writes of a row with the King back back in 1997, when the King was Prince
[00:08:07] Prince of Wales after he challenged challenged him on the decision to
[00:08:10] to allow Princes William and Harry Harry to walk behind their mother's
[00:08:14] mother's coffin at her funeral, something something he said his sister would
[00:08:17] would not have wanted. Earl Spencer
[00:08:19] Spencer claims the King replied angrily
[00:08:21] angrily saying that Diana would be
[00:08:23] be forgotten soon enough. The response
[00:08:25] response from Buckingham Palace a a sign of the fury behind palace
[00:08:29] palace walls. An official spokesman
[00:08:31] spokesman said while we do not comment
[00:08:33] comment on books as a matter of principle,
[00:08:37] principle, His Majesty is mindful mindful that the pain of fraternal
[00:08:40] fraternal grief can cloud reason, reason, affect judgement and colour
[00:08:44] colour memory in ways others do not
[00:08:46] not recognise. Even many years after
[00:08:49] after such a loss. Not since the
[00:08:51] the late Queen's statement that recollections recollections may vary after the
[00:08:54] the Duke and Duchess of Sussex's Sussex's interview with Oprah Winfrey
[00:08:58] Winfrey has a royal statement packed
[00:09:00] packed so much punch. With King Charles, Charles, we are seeing a monarch
[00:09:03] monarch doing things differently. differently. I think we are seeing seeing an age of greater transparency
[00:09:07] transparency with the monarchy in in many ways, with a King who has
[00:09:10] has disclosed that he has cancer cancer and is undergoing treatment
[00:09:14] treatment and a King who we know
[00:09:16] know feels things. His great empathy, empathy, great compassion. And I
[00:09:19] I would imagine this is incredibly incredibly upsetting for him. And
[00:09:22] And he has decided that he wants wants to respond. We are hearing
[00:09:25] hearing more from the palace, I think, think, than we ever have done. The
[00:09:29] The relationship between the Royal Royal family and the Spencers has
[00:09:32] has never really recovered since since the funeral of Princess Diana.
[00:09:36] Diana. In his eulogy to his sister,
[00:09:38] sister, Earl, Spencer was openly openly critical of the royals. It
[00:09:41] It caused lasting damage. It's been
[00:09:46] been a challenging few weeks for for the royal family, many of whom
[00:09:49] whom will be out on official duty
[00:09:53] duty today. As will Prince Harry.
[00:09:55] Harry. He'll be in London for an an awards dinner for the Invictus
[00:09:59] Invictus Games for wounded military
[00:10:00] military personnel. His first public
[00:10:03] public charity engagement since moving moving back to the UK with his wife
[00:10:06] wife and children. Come on you. Come
[00:10:09] Come on. The return of Harry and and Meghan has brought with it a
[00:10:13] a degree of drama over their security, security, the safety of their children
[00:10:16] children on the school run and speculation
[00:10:19] speculation over why they have come
[00:10:21] come back to the UK. The return of
[00:10:24] of Sussexes really is shows just
[00:10:27] just how much they run out of road
[00:10:30] road in Montecito. And they had run run out of road, do you think? Totally
[00:10:33] Totally run out of road. They seem
[00:10:35] seem to be unable to just simply
[00:10:39] simply quietly and with composure composure examine their options and
[00:10:42] and follow a route. You know, they
[00:10:44] they they crash into things, you
[00:10:47] you know, all the time. My husband
[00:10:48] husband loves bagpipes. All of these
[00:10:52] these engagements have been planned planned well in advance. But with with Harry and Meghan now back in
[00:10:56] in the UK, the days where we see see the working royals out on the
[00:11:00] the same day as the non-working ones
[00:11:02] ones will become more common. Daniela
[00:11:06] Daniela Relph, BBC News. Well, let's let's speak live to the historian
[00:11:09] historian and broadcaster Doctor Doctor Tessa Dunlop. Tessa, welcome welcome here to the programme. What
[00:11:13] What do you make of this? There's
[00:11:17] There's a tragic predictability to
[00:11:18] to it. It is pitiful that a woman
[00:11:22] woman beloved by so many somebody
[00:11:26] somebody ephemeral, volatile, a seeker seeker of pain, someone who personified
[00:11:30] personified love and loss and above
[00:11:33] above all was a woman, a woman's
[00:11:37] woman's woman is being fought over over her legacy, which will be 30
[00:11:39] 30 years her death next year. Of
[00:11:41] Of course, the anniversary by two
[00:11:44] two establishment men, both of whom
[00:11:47] whom I think should carry their burden
[00:11:48] burden of guilt for much of the or
[00:11:51] or latterly in the latter days of of Diana. The pain in her life. And
[00:11:55] And in fact you could add to that that list of men who are sort of
[00:11:59] of besmirching or fighting over her her legacy. Even Piers Morgan to
[00:12:01] to throw in a third one who was recently recently talking about how his Diana's
[00:12:05] Diana's mother used to ring him up up when she was drunk and then, of
[00:12:08] of course, her two sons. Well, William William doesn't say anything because
[00:12:11] because of his position within the the Constitution, but I'm sure we
[00:12:15] we will hear more from Harry over over the next year and it. There
[00:12:19] There is something. Yeah, grimly grimly predictable about it, I'm
[00:12:21] I'm afraid. What did you make of
[00:12:23] of the wording of the response? In
[00:12:27] In effect, regulations may vary. vary. I mean, Earl Spencer is an
[00:12:31] an assiduous writer and note taker. taker. Your assessment of the basic
[00:12:35] basic defence put out by the Palace? Palace? Well, as an oral historian,
[00:12:37] historian, I spend most of my time
[00:12:41] time talking to individuals and their their recollections predominantly predominantly but not only of World
[00:12:45] World War II. And I can assure you you that recollections always vary.
[00:12:48] vary. Often people contradict themselves.
[00:12:52] themselves. So I heard this morning morning a correspondent from the
[00:12:55] the times saying only the two charleses charleses know who's telling the
[00:12:57] the truth. Actually, no. Both will will be firmly entrenched in his
[00:13:01] his idea that his truth is the correct
[00:13:03] correct one. So I'm not questioning questioning their integrity in that
[00:13:06] that respect, but I did find it unprecedented
[00:13:10] unprecedented and surprising the the lengths to which the King went
[00:13:13] went to. He didn't just say recollections
[00:13:15] recollections may vary. He cited cited fraternal grief. He could have
[00:13:18] have been talking, of course, about about his own two sons. Forgive me me for spotting the irony there.
[00:13:22] there. He also referred to clouding
[00:13:24] clouding reason, affecting judgement,
[00:13:26] judgement, colouring memory. So this
[00:13:29] this is a monarchy in the brace position position for more to come, because because of course the serialisation
[00:13:33] serialisation will go over a few few days and the book's going to
[00:13:37] to land next week. But for what?
[00:13:39] what? Cause what? What is the end end game of this? And of course there's
[00:13:42] there's a long, very long history. history. Arguably the Spencers are
[00:13:46] are a far finer English aristocratic aristocratic family way back when
[00:13:50] when the Tudor times making their their fortune in wool, have often often crossed swords with the royal
[00:13:54] royal family. Of course, what makes makes our royal family so anomalous
[00:13:58] anomalous today is we have consistently consistently since the end of the
[00:14:01] the Second World War, removed the the edifice of aristocracy taken
[00:14:05] taken from them, their privileges privileges basically forced them them to open up their homes, which
[00:14:09] which of course Charles Spencer has has done, etc so the level there
[00:14:12] there is no level playing field. field. You've got this extraordinary extraordinary well protected, very
[00:14:15] very rich royal family and you've you've got the likes bizarrely of
[00:14:18] of Charles Spencer feeling like the
[00:14:21] the underprivileged one weaponising weaponising and monetising his sister's
[00:14:24] sister's legacy and casting himself
[00:14:26] himself very much against the House
[00:14:28] House of Windsor. Just a final thought thought because as you said, the the book is being serialised. We
[00:14:32] We are probably going to have days
[00:14:35] days of stories that the Palace may may or may not respond to, but what
[00:14:39] what do you make of the timing of of this? More broadly, you have Harry
[00:14:42] Harry and Meghan back in the UK that
[00:14:45] that controversy around the letter letter that was circulated. I mean,
[00:14:48] mean, the Palace is having to navigate navigate on, on several fronts, isn't
[00:14:50] isn't it? Yeah. Again, much of this
[00:14:53] this I think was unavoidable. Some Some people, I think would be fair
[00:14:56] fair to point out that, well, Charles
[00:14:59] Charles remained or retained his his never complain, never explain
[00:15:03] explain line when it came to Harry Harry and his explosions, but has
[00:15:06] has rewritten the rules for his one one time brother in law. But yeah,
[00:15:09] yeah, Harry is out and about. He's He's a loose cannon. I think much
[00:15:12] much of that could have been cleared cleared up if there'd been some kind
[00:15:16] kind of olive branch offered, but but there hasn't been, and I suspect
[00:15:20] suspect word on the ground suggests suggests and even from Meghan's photo
[00:15:23] photo dump suggests that Harry, while while perhaps not closely aligned
[00:15:27] aligned to his uncle, I'm sure he he won't relish the fact that the the serialisation has taken place
[00:15:30] place in the Daily Mail. I think think they are perhaps working more
[00:15:34] more closely together than the Palace Palace would like. Perhaps the publication
[00:15:37] publication this year, one year ahead ahead of Diana's anniversary, is
[00:15:41] is because there is talk of a Harry Harry documentary or something a
[00:15:45] a larger form of memorialisation memorialisation from her youngest
[00:15:48] youngest son this time next year. year. Tessa Dunlop. We have to leave
[00:15:51] leave it there. But thank you for for joining us on today's programme. programme. Thanks for your time.
[00:15:55] time. Thank you. We're going to take take a short break around the world
[00:16:58] high for Republicans and Democrats and for the American people. people. For the latest, follow us
[00:17:01] us on The President's Path here on
[00:17:02] on BBC. News. Welcome back. Now the
[00:17:11] the Bank of England has held interest
[00:17:14] interest rates at 3.75%. Despite Despite this week's announcement announcement of rising inflation.
[00:17:18] inflation. Six members of the bank's bank's Monetary Policy committee
[00:17:21] committee voted to hold rates, while while the other three voted to increase
[00:17:25] increase to 4%. Here's our economics
[00:17:27] economics editor Faisal Islam. They
[00:17:30] They have not followed. Other major major central banks which have raised
[00:17:33] raised rates. They've held it at
[00:17:36] at 3.75% on the same split of the the nine member committee that we
[00:17:39] we had before, 6 to 3. And the essential essential reason is that they recognise
[00:17:42] recognise rising pressures from energy. energy. But they say that for now,
[00:17:45] now, the rest of the economy hasn't hasn't sort of percolated out into
[00:17:48] into the rest of the economy and
[00:17:51] and effectively that they're going going to wait until they can see
[00:17:55] see that it might feed into wages wages before they act. Now, three
[00:18:03] Now, three members of the committee thought actually we've we've seen enough rates should go
[00:18:06] go up. This is an inevitability that that it will percolate through the the rest of the economy. Six didn't.
[00:18:09] didn't. So we got a similar decision decision to what we got in July, July, despite the fact that energy
[00:18:13] energy prices have gone up considerably considerably since then. But I should should say and it gets a bit complicated
[00:18:16] complicated this. But it is important. important. There was also another
[00:18:19] another move made today on how the
[00:18:21] the Bank of England deals with its
[00:18:25] its huge stock of government debt. debt. It essentially acquired lots
[00:18:28] lots of government debt during crises,
[00:18:31] crises, and it's been trying to sell
[00:18:33] sell that down quite calmly at a
[00:18:35] a time when the government, governments governments around the world have
[00:18:38] have also been trying to sell debt. debt. And we've seen and we've talked
[00:18:41] talked a lot about how we've seen seen high interest rates effective
[00:18:45] effective for governments, what they they have done today, the bottom bottom line and there are lots of
[00:18:49] of complexities. But let me just just you'll be hearing a lot about about this today. The bottom line
[00:18:53] line is they have paused the auctions.
[00:18:55] auctions. The Bank of England does
[00:18:57] does of its stock of government debt. debt. They still say that they will
[00:19:01] will sell it, but effectively they're
[00:19:03] they're going to keep like a significant significant portion back to cover
[00:19:07] cover their issuance of bank notes. notes. That's new news. We didn't
[00:19:10] didn't know that they were going going to do that. They're going to
[00:19:13] to sell them at a slightly slower
[00:19:15] slower rate. And then when they do
[00:19:17] do sell them, they have asked the
[00:19:19] the government essentially to swallow
[00:19:21] swallow that up. Now they say that
[00:19:24] that this is entirely their decision.
[00:19:27] decision. But the net effect of all
[00:19:29] all of this is that right now, when
[00:19:31] when we had expected the bank to
[00:19:33] to announce a programme of selling
[00:19:37] selling its government debts, it it won't be doing so at least for
[00:19:40] for a few months. And I think that that comes as a bit of a surprise
[00:19:43] surprise to the markets. It is complicated. complicated. Now they say this is
[00:19:47] is not because we have seen stressed stressed government markets, but but like I think there'll be a few
[00:19:50] few questions about this. They say say there's also questions about
[00:19:53] about how this may or may not help
[00:19:56] help the government finances to some some degree. It gets quite complicated
[00:19:59] complicated in terms of the accounting, accounting, but that is the news news that markets will be responding responding to. Obviously everyone
[00:20:03] everyone back home is thinking what's what's going to happen to interest interest rates? What's going to happen happen to mortgage rate, what's going
[00:20:07] going to happen to growth? The other other detail that I thought was quite quite interesting in here was that
[00:20:10] that the Bank of England is now projecting
[00:20:14] projecting that growth in this quarter, quarter, which it thought would basically
[00:20:17] basically be flat 0.1% will be 0.4%.
[00:20:21] 0.4%. Again, nothing to write home home about and hardly a triumph,
[00:20:24] triumph, but considerably more resilient resilient than had been expected.
[00:20:27] expected. Faisal Islam at the Bank Bank of England. Well, yesterday yesterday of course, we had that
[00:20:31] that increase to us interest rates. rates. It comes as rising fuel costs
[00:20:35] costs a result of renewed hostilities hostilities in Iran and Saudi Arabia
[00:20:38] Arabia now are pushing up rates of of inflation right around the world.
[00:20:42] world. Well, those rising energy energy costs are fuelling anger and
[00:20:46] and fears of shortages globally, globally, putting strains on transport
[00:20:49] transport systems, haulage companies, companies, shipping and everyday
[00:20:52] everyday people facing rocketing
[00:20:53] rocketing energy costs from Syria
[00:20:56] Syria to Guatemala, Portugal to France. France. People have in the last week
[00:20:59] week taken to the streets to protest
[00:21:02] protest against the rising fuel costs. costs. Well, let's speak now to Nick
[00:21:05] Nick Butler, former head of strategy strategy at BP. He was also a former
[00:21:08] former political adviser to Gordon Gordon Brown, is now a visiting professor
[00:21:11] professor at King's College London.
[00:21:13] London. Nick Butler, welcome here
[00:21:15] here to BBC News. So that is the
[00:21:18] the backdrop. Unless the conflict conflict in the Middle East cools
[00:21:22] cools is the price of just about about everything going to go up.
[00:21:25] up. Well good afternoon. I'm afraid afraid that is right. And you see
[00:21:29] see the prices rising already because
[00:21:32] because these costs have been increasing increasing already through the last
[00:21:35] last month or so. Now they've gone
[00:21:39] gone up a level more. I think that
[00:21:42] that will just push on inflation. inflation. And I was surprised by
[00:21:45] by the bank decision on interest interest rates. I think it's noticeable
[00:21:48] noticeable that nobody on the MPC MPC has a background in the energy
[00:21:52] energy industry or actually know
[00:21:54] know what's happening. This is both
[00:21:57] both oil and gas and then oil products, products, which are short because
[00:22:01] because the refineries in, in the the Gulf are blocked in can't produce
[00:22:05] produce or have been damaged. And And that feeds through to fertilisers
[00:22:07] fertilisers and food supply and through
[00:22:11] through naphtha and petrochemicals. petrochemicals. Yes, we're in for
[00:22:13] for a surge of inflation. And I think
[00:22:16] think we unfortunately have to be be ready for that. You've described
[00:22:20] described what is happening now as as an oil shock. We're seeing it
[00:22:23] it now. But this conflict has been
[00:22:25] been going on since February. Why Why haven't we felt all of this a
[00:22:29] a little earlier in the cycles? I I think it's very clear that the
[00:22:33] the reason is there have been cushions.
[00:22:35] cushions. The cushion is that the the International Energy Agency released
[00:22:38] released a very large amount of stocks stocks onto the market over the last
[00:22:42] last six months. And the Chinese,
[00:22:45] Chinese, who had heavy stocks, high
[00:22:46] high stocks built up over the previous
[00:22:49] previous year, decided to cut their
[00:22:51] their imports. So demand was new.
[00:22:54] new. Demand was much lower than it it could have been. But that's come
[00:22:58] come to an end now because you can't
[00:23:00] can't use stocks twice. The stock stock levels around the world are
[00:23:04] are now at pretty low levels, and
[00:23:07] and the Chinese have started importing
[00:23:09] importing again. And so it's just
[00:23:12] just a simple balance of supply and
[00:23:14] and demand. Demand is is now going going up. The stocks are not there
[00:23:18] there to cover it. And the supply
[00:23:22] supply particularly because of this this attack on the pipeline across
[00:23:25] across Saudi Arabia, it looks to to be down for at least the next
[00:23:28] next few weeks. So we're seeing the
[00:23:32] the impacts on inflation that translating
[00:23:34] translating into interest rates for for everyone sitting at home when
[00:23:38] when it comes to energy prices through
[00:23:41] through the winter. If there's no no sort of resolution pause in this
[00:23:45] this Middle East conflict, what is is the likely impact given already already what we've seen with oil
[00:23:49] oil prices, gas prices? Well, there
[00:23:51] there was one fairly authoritative
[00:23:54] authoritative forecast put out, I
[00:23:56] I think yesterday of the energy price
[00:23:58] price cap going up by £400. That
[00:24:01] That would be in January. And that
[00:24:04] that was, I think, prepared before before these latest events. So I
[00:24:06] I think that that is a minimum of
[00:24:09] of what the price increase will be. be. And I imagine now the government
[00:24:13] government is having to look very very carefully at how they're going
[00:24:15] going to protect particular sectors
[00:24:17] sectors health service, food supply
[00:24:20] supply and also how they're going going to protect businesses that
[00:24:22] that are heavily dependent on, on
[00:24:25] on energy costs. So it you can see
[00:24:29] see these price increases coming coming and it's not going to be very
[00:24:32] very comfortable, I'm afraid. You've You've got all the pressures of the
[00:24:35] the bond markets and debt to throw
[00:24:39] throw into a growing equation. What
[00:24:41] What are we talking about in terms
[00:24:43] terms of the timeline here? When When does this crunch really kick
[00:24:47] kick in for global economies unless unless there's progress in stopping
[00:24:50] stopping what we're seeing in the the Middle East? Well, it is kicking
[00:24:53] kicking in already. As you mentioned, mentioned, the people around the
[00:24:57] the world noticing the sudden increase
[00:24:59] increase in prices that have in their
[00:25:02] their in countries where it is really
[00:25:05] really very difficult to cover those
[00:25:08] those costs. These are not rich people
[00:25:10] people at all. And now we've got
[00:25:13] got petrol up over 170. We've got
[00:25:16] got diesel up over 190. We've got
[00:25:18] got the oil price well over 100 now
[00:25:21] now for several days. It will feed
[00:25:23] feed through gradually over the next
[00:25:26] next few weeks, but each time people people go to the garage they will
[00:25:29] will find prices are higher than
[00:25:32] than they were last week. Well, I I hope you're wrong, but I guess
[00:25:35] guess I hope I'm wrong too. But it it looks unlikely. But Nick Butler,
[00:25:39] Butler, great to have you on the the programme. Thank you so much
[00:25:41] much for providing that
[00:25:46] analysis. Thank you. Now in Russia, Russia, tomorrow is the start of of three days of voting in the country's country's parliamentary election,
[00:25:49] election, the first since Russia's Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
[00:25:53] Ukraine. Critics dismissed the vote vote as neither free nor transparent.
[00:25:56] transparent. But the Kremlin is expected expected to use it to claim that
[00:25:58] that the country is united behind behind the policies of President
[00:26:02] President Putin from Moscow. Here's Here's our Russia editor, Steve Rosenberg.
[00:26:05] Rosenberg. Ultimate power in Russia
[00:26:07] Russia lies right here in the Kremlin. Kremlin. But just across the road
[00:26:11] road there is a parliament, the Duma,
[00:26:14] Duma, and it's election time. So So what is a parliamentary election
[00:26:17] election like now in Russia? Well,
[00:26:20] Well, on TV we've seen election debates
[00:26:24] debates sort of none of the candidates
[00:26:25] candidates turned up for this one.
[00:26:28] one. And there has been some campaigning. campaigning. We caught up with the
[00:26:32] the Communist Party chief at a bakery. bakery. At times, though, it's been
[00:26:36] been hard to tell the difference difference between the ten parties
[00:26:39] parties that have been allowed onto onto the ballot. None of them criticise
[00:26:42] criticise President Putin or the
[00:26:44] the war in Ukraine. And if the political
[00:26:47] political process feels rather orchestrated, orchestrated, keep in mind that the
[00:26:50] the political system in Russia is
[00:26:51] is often referred to as managed democracy,
[00:26:54] democracy, where the Kremlin does does the managing and I think the
[00:26:57] the Kremlin will try to use this this election to claim that the country
[00:27:01] country is united behind the President
[00:27:03] President and behind the war. There
[00:27:07] There are some individual candidates candidates in some seats calling
[00:27:09] calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Ukraine. But their party, which is
[00:27:13] is called Yabloko and which is anti-war, anti-war, isn't allowed to take part
[00:27:17] part in this election as a party party in its own right. It was struck
[00:27:20] struck off the ballot by the Supreme
[00:27:24] Supreme Court, 50 miles from Moscow. Moscow. We didn't see much sign of
[00:27:27] of an election. There were few banners, banners, few election posters. But
[00:27:30] But from chatting to people, there there was every sign that the war
[00:27:34] war is front and centre of people's
[00:27:37] people's minds. I want a peaceful
[00:27:40] peaceful life, Yulia told. Me. I'd
[00:27:44] I'd like to live in a peaceful country, country, says Polina, so that you
[00:27:47] you don't have to worry that a drone drone will fall down in front of
[00:27:50] of you. But expectations are low
[00:27:53] low that this election will bring
[00:27:55] bring peace any closer. Steve Rosenberg
[00:27:59] Rosenberg with that report, we're we're going to. Take a short break. break. When we're back, we'll have
[00:28:02] have more on the A summit with King King Charles. Also the
[00:29:35] temperatures peaking into the mid
[00:29:36] mid 40s. Take care.