BBCNEWS — Unspun World with John Simpson
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[00:00:00] Business on BBC News. Make the connection.
[00:00:09] connection. MUSIC MUSIC Now
[00:00:11] Now on BBC News. Veteran world affairs
[00:00:13] affairs editor John Simpson talks talks to BBC correspondents going
[00:00:17] going beyond the headlines for expert expert analysis of the week's major
[00:00:21] major international news stories.
[00:00:24] stories. Unspun World.
[00:00:40] Hello and welcome back to
[00:00:42] Unspun World. After our summer break
[00:00:44] break at. What a Summer it's been
[00:00:47] been in the Northern Hemisphere. Hemisphere. Some of the hottest weather
[00:00:51] weather on record, the collapse of
[00:00:53] of a glacier in the Himalayas, a
[00:00:56] a ceasefire in Gaza. Yet with hundreds
[00:00:59] hundreds killed, no peace in Ukraine, Ukraine, no peace between the US
[00:01:03] US and Iran. Oil back to $100 a barrel.
[00:01:07] barrel. I warn you, it's not exactly
[00:01:10] exactly joyful stuff at first. In In this week's programme, we'll be
[00:01:14] be looking at the conflict between between the Saudis and the Houthis
[00:01:18] Houthis in Yemen and the dangers dangers to the world economy. We
[00:01:22] We could be looking. At months of of instability in which not just
[00:01:25] just Saudi shipping, but all flagged flagged shipping down there gets gets threatened, in which case it's
[00:01:29] it's going to hurt the economies economies of all of us. As the Israeli
[00:01:33] Israeli election comes. Closer, is
[00:01:35] is there any hope whatsoever for
[00:01:37] for a Palestinian state in the Middle Middle East. Both in terms of what's
[00:01:42] what's happening on the ground and and in terms of rhetoric from some
[00:01:45] some of the Israeli politicians who who are seen as more moderate, a
[00:01:49] a two-state solution is a non-starter.
[00:01:53] non-starter. And most apocalyptic apocalyptic of all is artificial
[00:01:57] artificial intelligence going to to wipe us all out. At the moment
[00:01:59] moment there are people, very intelligent intelligent people who are saying
[00:02:03] saying there is a 10% chance this this might happen in the next ten
[00:02:05] ten years. That is troubling. Back
[00:02:12] Back in February, when President President Trump decided to join Israel
[00:02:16] Israel in attacking Iran, it must
[00:02:19] must have seemed so easy. Prime Minister
[00:02:22] Minister Netanyahu assured him they
[00:02:23] they could take out the entire Iranian
[00:02:27] Iranian leadership regime change change seemed a certainty, but it
[00:02:31] it didn't work out like that. Of
[00:02:33] Of course, seven months later, Iran
[00:02:36] Iran is unbeaten. It partly controls
[00:02:39] controls the Strait of Hormuz, through through which 20% of the world's
[00:02:43] world's oil passes. And now in a
[00:02:46] a lightning strike, its allies, the
[00:02:48] the Houthis of Yemen, have seized seized control of the other major
[00:02:52] major pinch point in the region,
[00:02:54] region, the Bab al-Mandab Strait Strait near the mouth of the Red
[00:02:57] Red Sea. What lies behind the Houthis
[00:03:01] Houthis move to capture the area area and why have they been so effective?
[00:03:05] effective? I asked the BBC's security
[00:03:09] security correspondent Frank Gardner, Gardner, who's a specialist in the
[00:03:11] the region. They are armed, trained
[00:03:15] trained and assisted by Iran's Revolutionary
[00:03:19] Revolutionary Guards Corps and allegedly
[00:03:21] allegedly reportedly also by Hezbollah
[00:03:23] Hezbollah in Lebanon. So they've they've got drone technology, they've
[00:03:27] they've got ballistic missiles. They're They're very motivated. I mean, we
[00:03:30] we refer to them as the Houthi rebels. rebels. I don't know how much longer
[00:03:33] longer we can keep calling them that that because they took over control
[00:03:36] control of most of the country in
[00:03:39] in late 2014. And the Saudis spent spent seven years trying to dislodge
[00:03:42] dislodge them from the air, mostly mostly from the air, and without
[00:03:46] without success. They are just much
[00:03:48] much better motivated and directed
[00:03:51] directed and led than the Yemeni
[00:03:54] Yemeni forces that had been up against against them. Interestingly, you
[00:03:58] you know, despite the fact that they they are certainly not even a second
[00:04:02] second tier military power in the
[00:04:05] the world, just like Iran, they have have been able to weaponise geography
[00:04:08] geography and control that coast.
[00:04:11] coast. And by pushing out the Yemeni
[00:04:13] Yemeni government forces from control control of that coast, they can now now threaten all shipping that's
[00:04:17] that's coming down. And for now, now, they're not doing that. They're They're saying the only shipping
[00:04:21] shipping we're going to stop is Saudi
[00:04:22] Saudi flagged tankers. But that matters matters because that is the route
[00:04:26] route that the Saudis have been getting getting their oil out because the
[00:04:29] the Strait of Hormuz is partly throttled
[00:04:32] throttled by the Iran-u.s war. Now, Now, we know that the Saudis called
[00:04:36] called on President Trump to help help them, saying, could you please
[00:04:40] please give us some air power? And
[00:04:43] And he declined. So the two clear
[00:04:47] clear channels through which most
[00:04:49] most of the large part of the oil
[00:04:52] oil from the Middle East reaches
[00:04:53] reaches the rest of the world are
[00:04:56] are now under the control of well,
[00:04:59] well, effectively of Iran. If Iran
[00:05:02] Iran is entirely 100% behind the
[00:05:04] the Houthis. It gets even worse.
[00:05:07] worse. John, the pipeline that runs runs from the east of Saudi Arabia,
[00:05:10] Arabia, the oil producing area known known as the Hussa Al-Hasa places
[00:05:14] places like Dhahran where Saudi Aramco
[00:05:16] Aramco is based. That pipeline has
[00:05:18] has been attacked by drones launched
[00:05:21] launched from Iraq, almost certainly certainly by Iranian proxies. Whether
[00:05:24] Whether or not it was under direction direction of the IRGC, the Revolutionary
[00:05:27] Revolutionary Guards Corps, we don't don't know, but probably that means means the Saudis have shut it down
[00:05:31] down for safety reasons. So there's there's not a great deal of oil coming
[00:05:35] coming out of Saudi Arabia right right now. The biggest oil producer
[00:05:38] producer in the region. This is only only going to drive prices up at
[00:05:42] at the pump. And guess who that's that's going to hurt most apart from
[00:05:46] from the consumer, Donald Trump's Trump's chances at the mid-terms.
[00:05:49] mid-terms. How much will the Houthis
[00:05:52] Houthis take the word take the instructions
[00:05:56] instructions of Iran about this?
[00:05:58] this? The Houthis are often misnamed
[00:06:01] misnamed as proxies of Iran. No, No, they are allies, but they're
[00:06:05] they're not controlled by Iran. They They are staunchly nationalist. They
[00:06:08] They are Yemenis. It's a Yemeni movement. movement. They certainly have benefited
[00:06:12] benefited a lot from Iranian military military help and military expertise.
[00:06:16] expertise. There is a wild card in in all of this. Do you remember only
[00:06:18] only a few days ago, a lot of fuss
[00:06:20] fuss was made about this huge new new alliance in the Middle East,
[00:06:24] East, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and
[00:06:26] and Turkey. The first test of this
[00:06:29] this is if Saudi Arabia is attacked, attacked, are those countries going
[00:06:32] going to come to its defence because because it was supposed to be a Nato
[00:06:36] Nato Article 5 mutual defence pact.
[00:06:38] pact. So far they haven't. So Pakistan
[00:06:41] Pakistan what they are doing is using using their very good offices with
[00:06:44] with Iran. They've got good connections connections with both Riyadh and
[00:06:48] and with Tehran to try to ask the
[00:06:50] the Iranians to tone it down to get
[00:06:53] get Iran in turn to exercise some
[00:06:56] some restraint on the Houthis. The The reason why the fight has flared
[00:06:59] flared up again between Saudi Arabia
[00:07:02] Arabia and the Houthis is because because the Saudis bombed Sana'a
[00:07:06] Sana'a airport, the capital of Yemen,
[00:07:08] Yemen, a few weeks ago. The Houthis Houthis responded by firing missiles
[00:07:12] missiles and drones at Saudi cities cities in the south. Also, they've
[00:07:16] they've hit oil facilities, which which is a disaster for Saudi Arabia
[00:07:20] Arabia because they need to get through through this vision 2030, which is
[00:07:23] is to try and promote Saudi Arabia Arabia as a safe place to invest
[00:07:27] invest in. Come and be a tourist tourist here. Come and set up your
[00:07:30] your business here. That's hard to
[00:07:32] to sell if you're under daily drone
[00:07:34] drone attack. So how do we get out
[00:07:38] out of this? Because we've I mean,
[00:07:40] mean, the health of the economies
[00:07:43] economies of large parts of the world world are dependent on all this.
[00:07:46] this. The Saudis have something that that the Houthis like, which is money.
[00:07:50] money. I suspect that with good mediation
[00:07:53] mediation by Pakistan, possibly by by Egypt, by Turkey, maybe Qatar,
[00:07:56] Qatar, there are ways to resolve resolve this. It's rather like trying
[00:07:59] trying to pedal uphill. The moment
[00:08:01] moment you stop, you drift backwards.
[00:08:04] backwards. So if nothing happens
[00:08:07] happens much in the bottom of the the red, the southern end of the
[00:08:10] the Red Sea, I suspect that diplomacy
[00:08:12] diplomacy may well win out. But if
[00:08:16] if the Saudis decide that they're they're going to fight this one out
[00:08:19] out and the what's called the internationally internationally recognised Yemen Yemen government, which is the government
[00:08:22] government in exile that's been sitting sitting in Aden and partly in Riyadh. Riyadh. If they decide that they
[00:08:26] they are going to fight and try and
[00:08:29] and dislodge the Houthis from that that coast, we could be looking at
[00:08:32] at months of fighting there. It could
[00:08:36] could deescalate and intermediaries intermediaries find a way to, you you know, say, look, guys, this is
[00:08:40] is hurting everybody and it's benefiting benefiting nobody. Or it could flare
[00:08:43] flare up again and we could be looking looking at months of instability
[00:08:47] instability in which not just Saudi Saudi shipping, but all flagged shipping
[00:08:50] shipping down there gets threatened, threatened, in which case it's going
[00:08:53] going to hurt the economies of all
[00:08:56] all of us. Soon after, Andy Burnham,
[00:09:00] Burnham, the latest in a rather long
[00:09:03] long line of recent British Prime
[00:09:05] Prime Ministers, came to power in
[00:09:07] in July, there was a major shift shift in Britain's policy towards
[00:09:11] towards Israel. Our argument is not not with the people of Israel with
[00:09:15] with whom the UK has unshakeable
[00:09:17] unshakeable bonds. Our argument is is with the conduct of its government.
[00:09:21] government. At the start of this this month, his Foreign Secretary,
[00:09:25] Secretary, Ed Miliband, announced announced a ban on trade with Israel.
[00:09:29] Israel. Settlements in the West Bank, Bank, where Palestinian farms and
[00:09:33] and villages are under increasing increasing pressure from Israeli
[00:09:36] Israeli settlers. The trigger for
[00:09:39] for this move was Israel's tender
[00:09:42] tender for 1200 housing units in
[00:09:44] in an area of the West Bank, known
[00:09:47] known as E-1, which critics say would
[00:09:48] would split the West Bank into two
[00:09:51] two and maybe prevent a future Palestinian
[00:09:55] Palestinian state altogether. Israel
[00:09:57] Israel is becoming increasingly isolated
[00:10:01] isolated internationally, but how
[00:10:02] how much do Israelis themselves realise
[00:10:05] realise this, and how is the country
[00:10:07] country responding? I asked BBC Monitoring's
[00:10:10] Monitoring's Middle East expert Shayna Shayna Oppenheimer, who's based in
[00:10:14] in Jerusalem. Well, there's certainly
[00:10:18] certainly concerns of isolation. isolation. And I think that, you
[00:10:20] you know, that started with looking looking at the way that Israel was
[00:10:24] was conducting itself in the Gaza Gaza Strip, the very devastating
[00:10:27] devastating death toll there and and the humanitarian crisis. But
[00:10:30] But now the spotlight has shifted
[00:10:32] shifted to the West Bank, especially especially to recent settler violence.
[00:10:36] violence. There. Oftentimes the reaction
[00:10:40] reaction in the centre of Israel's
[00:10:41] Israel's camp might see, you know,
[00:10:44] know, international criticism as
[00:10:46] as some kind of diplomacy failure failure on behalf of Netanyahu's
[00:10:50] Netanyahu's government without examining examining the actual policies behind
[00:10:52] behind it. And we can say the same
[00:10:55] same with these sanctions. People People aren't really discussing this
[00:10:58] this issue of settler violence or or settler settler settlement expansion.
[00:11:02] expansion. It's about did the government government do enough to prevent this?
[00:11:06] this? And in this sense, it actually
[00:11:08] actually could work to Netanyahu's Netanyahu's advantage ahead of the
[00:11:11] the October elections, he has increasingly
[00:11:14] increasingly painted the world as
[00:11:16] as being anti-Israel, antisemitic, antisemitic, which he conflates as
[00:11:19] as being one and the same, and that that Israel needs a strong leader
[00:11:23] leader to stand up against mounting mounting international criticism
[00:11:26] criticism of Israel. And only he
[00:11:28] he can be that person. What's your
[00:11:31] your feeling about the way that the
[00:11:33] the election will go? I can Netanyahu
[00:11:37] Netanyahu survive yet another test
[00:11:40] test of his leadership? Well, Netanyahu Netanyahu has proven to have many
[00:11:43] many lives, and he has proven to
[00:11:45] to be quite the master at politics.
[00:11:48] politics. And I think the interesting interesting part about Israeli elections
[00:11:51] elections is that Israel does have have a coalition building system.
[00:11:55] system. So it's not just about getting
[00:11:57] getting the most seats in Israel's
[00:12:00] Israel's 120 seat Knesset, but it's it's also about having the political
[00:12:03] political muscle to form alliances alliances with parties and build
[00:12:07] build a coalition. The key question question is who's going to not sit
[00:12:11] sit in either the coalition or the the government? And a big part of
[00:12:15] of this election campaign has been
[00:12:16] been actually talking about explicit
[00:12:20] explicit exclusion of Palestinian Palestinian parties. The idea that
[00:12:22] that Israel should have a fully Zionist
[00:12:26] Zionist government and those Palestinian Palestinian parties could potentially
[00:12:28] potentially be key to the coalition coalition securing that majority,
[00:12:32] majority, getting a government and and ousting Netanyahu. But so far
[00:12:34] far we don't see a clear path for
[00:12:36] for either. Sana'a. Israel always
[00:12:40] always used to be a left of centre
[00:12:44] centre country. What happened? Why
[00:12:47] Why is it now electing right wing wing government after right wing
[00:12:51] wing government? Well, a lot of people
[00:12:53] people would point to the collapse
[00:12:55] collapse of the Oslo Accords in the
[00:12:58] the 90s, kind of following that.
[00:13:00] that. This kind of talk of peace
[00:13:03] peace really disappeared from the the public discourse. Israel built
[00:13:07] built its separation barrier, kind kind of making it much harder for
[00:13:11] for Palestinians from the occupied occupied West Bank to come into Israel.
[00:13:13] Israel. And in this way, it's very very easy to live in this system
[00:13:17] system and not interact with Palestinians. Palestinians. And then when you watch
[00:13:20] watch the media that don't really
[00:13:24] really report on Palestinians in in many other terms other than those
[00:13:28] those who may carry out attacks against
[00:13:31] against Israelis, it's very easy
[00:13:33] easy to very quickly, you know, not
[00:13:35] not even think about the idea of,
[00:13:38] of, you know, people as potential potential partners for peace, potential
[00:13:42] potential neighbours. And we've seen
[00:13:45] seen a lot of international leniency leniency towards Israel. We've seen
[00:13:48] seen the US really protect Israel
[00:13:50] Israel from being pushed towards towards any kind of diplomatic efforts.
[00:13:53] efforts. And when you look at interviews
[00:13:55] interviews with former Israeli diplomats diplomats now, they talk about the
[00:13:59] the fact that Israel doesn't really
[00:14:01] really seek diplomacy. What about about the Palestinians? Where do
[00:14:05] do they go if they get forced out
[00:14:07] out of the West Bank? They are being being and have been forced out of
[00:14:11] of Gaza. What happens to them as
[00:14:15] as people, as families, as tribes
[00:14:19] tribes as opposed to a big overarching
[00:14:22] overarching unified kind of governed governed people? Well, I think that that is, you know, a key question.
[00:14:26] question. And I think also this is
[00:14:28] is again, been going on for decades.
[00:14:30] decades. And you also see with that
[00:14:33] that a very fragmented Palestinian Palestinian political system, you
[00:14:36] you have Hamas ruling the Gaza Strip.
[00:14:39] Strip. We have the Palestinian Authority
[00:14:41] Authority ruling very limited parts parts of the occupied West Bank.
[00:14:45] Bank. And there isn't really any any kind of singular Palestinian
[00:14:48] Palestinian entity that is able to
[00:14:50] to galvanise people and that, you
[00:14:52] you know, some critics might point
[00:14:54] point to Israel as playing a role
[00:14:57] role in delegitimizing any kind of
[00:15:00] of Palestinian leadership like the
[00:15:01] the PA. And whichever party wins
[00:15:05] wins the Israeli elections, whatever
[00:15:09] whatever coalition is formed, nobody
[00:15:11] nobody is going to go back to a two
[00:15:14] two nation solution, are they? No.
[00:15:16] No. That rhetoric has really dropped
[00:15:19] dropped from Israeli political discourse, discourse, both in terms of what's
[00:15:23] what's happening on the ground and and the way that Israeli settlements
[00:15:26] settlements have really expanded expanded into parts of the West Bank.
[00:15:30] Bank. And in terms of rhetoric from from some of the Israeli politicians
[00:15:33] politicians who are seen as more more moderate, a two-state solution
[00:15:37] solution is a non-starter. No one
[00:15:43] one would have believed in the early early years of the 21st century that
[00:15:46] that our world was being watched watched by intelligences greater
[00:15:50] greater than our own. Machines that
[00:15:52] that are cleverer and stronger than
[00:15:54] than us and can wipe out all human
[00:15:57] human life, have been a persistent
[00:15:59] persistent fear of ours since at
[00:16:02] at least 1898, When HG Wells published
[00:16:05] published his novel The War of the
[00:16:07] the worlds. But could it now finally
[00:16:09] finally be about to happen with artificial
[00:16:13] artificial intelligence? President President Trump says all this is
[00:16:17] is a hoax. He spelled it out in capital capital letters. I think you have
[00:16:20] have a lot of negative forces that
[00:16:21] that are bringing it up that shouldn't shouldn't be bringing it up, and
[00:16:25] and they're bringing it up. Things Things that won't happen. And a sick
[00:16:28] sick conspiracy. And that the only
[00:16:31] only guardrail that's needed is a
[00:16:33] a strong and smart brackets high
[00:16:36] high IQ close brackets. President
[00:16:38] President in charge. So that's all
[00:16:40] all right then. Except that some some of the people calling most loudly
[00:16:44] loudly for regulation and slowdown
[00:16:46] slowdown are bosses of leading AI
[00:16:50] AI companies and a former Anthropic
[00:16:52] Anthropic and OpenAI researcher,
[00:16:54] researcher, Jacob Coxson says people people who are actually building
[00:16:58] building AI think it could destroy destroy the entire human race by
[00:17:01] by the end of the decade. That, to
[00:17:04] to remind you, is only four years years away. I believe that if we
[00:17:08] we don't slow down at the current current rate of progress. Yes, there
[00:17:11] there is a strong chance that we we could all die in the immediate
[00:17:14] immediate future. So is all of this
[00:17:18] this just more fiction like the war war of the worlds? Is it a hoax?
[00:17:22] hoax? I asked the BBC cyber correspondent
[00:17:25] correspondent Joe Tidy to tell us us what exactly is been going on
[00:17:29] on in the strange world of artificial
[00:17:33] artificial intelligence. AI agents agents in some cases swarms of thousands
[00:17:36] thousands of agents have worked together together to break out of containment
[00:17:40] containment systems. So they call call it a sandbox in computing, where
[00:17:43] where you can test a programme inside
[00:17:46] inside a secure part of a computer. computer. These agents broke out
[00:17:49] out of that secure container, found found their way onto the Open internet
[00:17:52] internet and in some cases carried
[00:17:54] carried out illegal cyber attacks
[00:17:56] attacks all under the noses of these
[00:17:58] these giant and very rich tech companies.
[00:18:00] companies. And in, in all those cases, cases, the attacks weren't even noticed
[00:18:04] noticed by the companies or even even the victims until after the
[00:18:07] the fact. Some of the top people
[00:18:09] people in the tech companies are
[00:18:12] are talking about slowing down the the development and the research.
[00:18:15] research. But I mean, that's no answer, answer, is it just puts it off till
[00:18:18] till next week. Well, I suppose that that what the argument there is that
[00:18:21] that if we slow down our development, development, we can bolster our security
[00:18:25] security and our safeguarding and and our they call them guardrails
[00:18:28] guardrails effectively kind of like like a cage almost where you say, say, right, you can't go and do that.
[00:18:32] that. You can't go and do this. And And that's the area clearly that
[00:18:34] that we are lacking is those guardrails guardrails and those safeguards. safeguards. But it's really, really
[00:18:38] really difficult to implement because because how on earth would you police
[00:18:42] police this if some companies, let's let's say OpenAI and Anthropic, They've
[00:18:45] They've talked about doing a slowdown. slowdown. What if others don't? What
[00:18:48] What if they decide to keep going going at full speed? And of course,
[00:18:52] course, there have been one or two two suggestions which just sort of
[00:18:55] of pull the plug on the whole thing
[00:18:57] thing if it gets disturbingly dangerous. dangerous. But that's not going to
[00:19:00] to happen either, is it? There's There's so much money on, on the
[00:19:04] the fact that AI is the future and
[00:19:06] and all these companies have huge,
[00:19:09] huge, you know, billions and billions
[00:19:11] billions of dollars worth of investment investment riding on their success.
[00:19:15] success. The whole US economy, a
[00:19:16] a rather large chunk of that is predicated
[00:19:19] predicated on AI being a thing, being
[00:19:22] being something of a success and and being something that everybody
[00:19:24] everybody uses. So the idea of switching switching it off seems absurd. It's
[00:19:28] It's also sort of goes against many many of our instincts, doesn't it?
[00:19:32] it? You know, we want to develop develop technology and move forward.
[00:19:34] forward. The idea of pressing stop
[00:19:36] stop seems seems strange. It's also
[00:19:38] also very unrealistic as well, because because this idea of some sort of
[00:19:42] of kill switch, for example, the the UK politicians have been talking
[00:19:45] talking about it. It was rejected. rejected. On Friday I spoke to the
[00:19:48] the Cabinet Office. They told me me exclusively that they are not
[00:19:51] not backing this proposal. AI is is inherently borderless is the quote
[00:19:55] quote they gave me. And you cannot
[00:19:57] cannot switch off. AI is what they they said because you can't without
[00:20:01] without having these companies on on board. What can the what can the
[00:20:04] the UK or any country other than than the US feasibly do without these
[00:20:07] these giant data centres where all all the action is happening, we can't
[00:20:11] can't do much. And that's sort of of quite troubling if you think about
[00:20:13] about it as a non US citizen or as as a or as anywhere else, anywhere
[00:20:16] anywhere else in the world. I spoke
[00:20:17] spoke to one AI safety expert who's
[00:20:20] who's been calling, you know, for for more safety for years now. And
[00:20:24] And he said the problem is that the the UK and other countries will get,
[00:20:27] get, in his words, steamrolled by by the US tech giants if we try to
[00:20:30] to stop it. The most nerve wracking
[00:20:32] wracking thing that anybody said
[00:20:34] said has come from a couple of people
[00:20:37] people inside the industry who say say that it's possible that within
[00:20:41] within quite a short space of time,
[00:20:44] time, AI might actually wipe out
[00:20:46] out human life. How would it do that?
[00:20:50] that? And I mean, is it a possibility?
[00:20:52] possibility? Well, there was a very very influential paper called AI
[00:20:56] AI 2027, which came out last year year which said that in the year
[00:21:00] year 2027, they expect AI to reach
[00:21:02] reach something called superintelligence superintelligence or artificial general
[00:21:05] general intelligence. This kind of of benchmark that keeps moving of
[00:21:09] of when AI will be much, much more more capable than humans at anything,
[00:21:12] anything, essentially. And at that that point it'll start recursive
[00:21:16] recursive self-improvement. So getting getting faster and faster and faster faster and more and more intelligent,
[00:21:20] intelligent, it'll vastly surpass
[00:21:22] surpass humanity in terms of intellect. intellect. And in this scenario,
[00:21:25] scenario, humans become entirely entirely reliant on AI for absolutely
[00:21:29] absolutely everything. And eventually eventually the AI has its own goals
[00:21:32] goals and ambitions to become ultra ultra knowledgeable and wants to
[00:21:35] to explore the universe. And humans humans essentially get in the way
[00:21:38] way of building data centres and and taking up resources that this
[00:21:42] this AI wants and needs. So it harnesses
[00:21:45] harnesses and controls all the power power and electricity in the world,
[00:21:49] world, and then releases a biological biological weapon, which is, you
[00:21:51] you know, designed that we cannot cannot protect against. And, and
[00:21:54] and that wipes out humanity. There There are other examples like for
[00:21:58] for example, you could have some
[00:22:00] some sort of catastrophic cyber attack attack or outage across multiple
[00:22:04] multiple countries, maybe every country country at the same time. It sounds
[00:22:07] sounds completely far fetched. I I know it does. And it is you know, know, at the moment there are people,
[00:22:11] people, very intelligent people who who are saying there is a 10% chance
[00:22:14] chance this might happen in the next next ten years. That is troubling, troubling, but there's also a 90%
[00:22:18] 90% chance that it won't happen in in the next ten years. And that's that's even, you know, these are
[00:22:22] are the most pessimistic of the what
[00:22:23] what we call the AI doomers. So the
[00:22:26] the risks are very hard to understand understand and grasp. I mean, you
[00:22:29] you spend your whole day investigating,
[00:22:33] investigating, reading about all all this kind of stuff. Does it make
[00:22:36] make you depressed? I've heard these these warnings for years and I've I've always sort of dismissed them,
[00:22:40] them, really. There's a lot of this this kind of pessimism wrapped up
[00:22:43] up in hyping these companies to make make sure that they get more money
[00:22:46] money and investment and making them them sound more powerful. I've been
[00:22:48] been sort of part of that, that group
[00:22:51] group of sort of the cynics, if you you like. But then the last sort
[00:22:54] sort of six months or so, we have have seen these models get more and
[00:22:57] and more intelligent. And then you've you've seen these sort of scandals scandals when you sort of look at
[00:23:01] at the way that these agentic swarms swarms have worked and then tried
[00:23:05] tried to cover their tracks and they've they've deliberately tried to deceive
[00:23:07] deceive the people that created them, them, that has. I have been through
[00:23:11] through something of an awakening awakening in the sense of, OK, this
[00:23:14] this is real. So what do we do? What's
[00:23:17] What's the answer? It feels inevitable inevitable to me that there has to
[00:23:20] to be some sort of legislation put
[00:23:22] put in place and then an international international body created that seems
[00:23:25] seems to be one of the things that that people are calling for that
[00:23:29] that can add as a kind of proliferation
[00:23:34] proliferation and testing body that that can look at the models and test test whether or not they're safe
[00:23:37] safe before they're released to the the public. But there's a long way
[00:23:40] way to go until that would actually actually happen. Lots of lots of
[00:23:44] of very powerful companies and individuals individuals would have to come together
[00:23:47] together and put their egos to one one side, which obviously very, very
[00:23:50] very difficult in Silicon Valley Valley to make it work. And I think
[00:23:54] think we're all looking now, of course, course, to the US to see if anything anything will happen and also to
[00:23:57] to China, which has already said said that it believes this whole
[00:24:00] whole scaremongering is just a way way for the US to stay ahead in the
[00:24:04] the AI race. So a long way to go go yet, but I think there are some
[00:24:08] some options being being talked about about now which might make a difference.
[00:24:11] difference. Joe Tidy the BBC cyber
[00:24:15] cyber correspondent and if that doesn't
[00:24:16] doesn't scare you, I'm not sure what
[00:24:19] what will. One of the most fascinating fascinating things I read during
[00:24:22] during the summer was a quotation quotation said to have come from
[00:24:26] from Vladimir Putin himself saying
[00:24:28] saying that if he didn't win his his war in Ukraine, they could hang
[00:24:32] hang me. Perhaps we should file that
[00:24:35] that away under. Interesting if true.
[00:24:38] true. But if it is true, it would
[00:24:40] would show why he's so determined
[00:24:42] determined to carry on with a war
[00:24:44] war which has killed or injured 1.4
[00:24:48] 1.4 million Russians and done huge
[00:24:50] huge damage to the Russian economy.
[00:24:52] economy. He simply doesn't dare stop.
[00:24:56] stop. This week, Russia's holding holding elections to the National
[00:25:00] National Duma and to regional assemblies assemblies as well. Since any opposition
[00:25:04] opposition party which shows the
[00:25:05] the slightest sign of doing well
[00:25:08] well has been disqualified or impeded impeded in some way, no one's holding
[00:25:11] holding their breath about the result,
[00:25:14] result, but it will be an indicator.
[00:25:16] indicator. Even so. As for the chances
[00:25:19] chances of peace, where are we? Well,
[00:25:22] Well, President Trump's approach approach to the negotiations is a
[00:25:25] a sort of commercial one. He waves
[00:25:28] waves all sorts of economic and trade
[00:25:31] trade carrots in front of both sides, sides, but particularly Russia. If
[00:25:34] If only they'll give up fighting.
[00:25:38] fighting. But if Vladimir Putin really really does see this war in terms
[00:25:41] terms of his own personal survival,
[00:25:44] survival, then the prospect of extra extra wealth doesn't really attract
[00:25:47] attract him. And President Zelensky
[00:25:50] Zelensky sees the war as something something that could destroy his
[00:25:54] his entire country. So some hastily
[00:25:56] hastily tacked together deal doesn't doesn't have any great interest for
[00:26:00] for him either. I suspect both sides
[00:26:03] sides have got another nasty winter
[00:26:05] winter ahead of them. Well, that's
[00:26:08] that's it from the first of this
[00:26:10] this new series of Unspun World.
[00:26:13] World. Thanks for being with me and
[00:26:14] and the team and until we meet again,
[00:26:18] again, goodbye.
[00:28:28] priority? Nats this week on Talking
[00:28:29] Talking Business here on BBC News.
[00:28:36] News. I lost my sight completely completely when I was eight years
[00:28:40] years old. Clive, this is a moment moment in the history of the United United States. My
[00:28:47] United States. My name is Gary O'Donoghue and chief North America America correspondent for the BBC.
[00:28:50] BBC. As you can see, we're on the the ground behind our car, which which is not ideal, but that's the
[00:28:54] the shelter we have at the moment moment during the Trump assassination assassination attempt. I think my
[00:28:58] my blindness was an interesting factor factor because one of the central
[00:29:01] central interviews we got was with with the eyewitness, Greg. I learned
[00:29:04] learned afterwards look pretty striking. striking. Secret service is looking
[00:29:06] looking at us from the top of the the barn. I'm pointing at that roof.
[00:29:09] roof. You spend your whole life interpreting interpreting the world through what
[00:29:12] what you hear because I can't see. see. I just listen to what he says.
[00:29:15] says. I listened and I asked the the same questions over and over over again. He remained consistent.
[00:29:19] consistent. He sounded credible. credible. It was the thing that persuaded persuaded me. It's listening and
[00:29:23] and telling stories that is the core core of what we do. We get the experience
[00:29:27] experience of all people we serve serve because we have people of all
[00:29:31] all kinds in this organisation.
[00:30:10] Live from Washington. This is
[00:30:12] BBC News at a concert in Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Ed Sheeran makes his
[00:30:16] his first remarks since his support
[00:30:17] support act was dropped over pro-Palestinian
[00:30:20] pro-Palestinian comments. And I'm I'm Carl Nasman live in Philadelphia,
[00:30:24] Philadelphia, where Ed Sheeran in in that stadium behind me has called
[00:30:27] called the situation in Gaza unjustifiable.
[00:30:31] unjustifiable. The Houthis in Yemen Yemen claim responsibility for missile
[00:30:35] missile and drone attacks on the
[00:30:37] the Saudi capital and Nato welcomes
[00:30:40] welcomes a deal between the US and and Denmark, which President Trump
[00:30:43] Trump claims gives the US security
[00:30:46] security control over Greenland forever.
[00:30:57] forever. I'm Helena Humphrey good good to have you with us. As we begin