BBCNEWS — The Presidents Path
20260920 103000 UTC
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[00:00:01] Make the connection. MUSIC
[00:00:17] This is BBC News. And now a
[00:00:19] weekly dynamic discussion on the
[00:00:22] the US presidency. The President's
[00:00:25] President's Path. It's kind of like like you have this close relationship
[00:00:28] relationship between the US and Canada, Canada, and Canada is now sort of
[00:00:31] of trying to make it into an open open relationship, if you like. It
[00:00:35] It wants to have, you know, good
[00:00:38] good relations with the EU, perhaps perhaps with China as well, because
[00:00:41] because it can't depend on the US US market. Will it be then a benefit
[00:00:45] benefit for Canada? We don't know know what the price of entry is for
[00:00:49] for an associate membership. And And then down the road, does that
[00:00:52] that impact in any way the trading trading relationship with the US..
[00:00:56] US.. Canadians that
[00:01:01] That live in these communities? Some of them think that that's all
[00:01:04] all well and good, but at the same same time, the relationship with with the US really needs to be mended
[00:01:08] mended because, you know, we're going going to be neighbours no matter matter how good or bad this relationship
[00:01:11] relationship is, is going to be.
[00:01:17] be. Hey guys, good to see you again. again. It's been another busy week. week. I feel like we were talking
[00:01:21] talking about AI for much of
[00:01:25] it. We were talking about AI and and we were talking about a united
[00:01:27] united Ireland that President Trump Trump called for on his trip back
[00:01:31] back to my native homeland at the the start of the week. So it just
[00:01:34] just shows you never know what this this president is going to call for
[00:01:38] for or not call for, as the case
[00:01:39] case may be. The artificial intelligence intelligence discussion is absolutely
[00:01:43] absolutely blown everything out of of the water this week, hasn't it? it? I mean, it feels like we've been
[00:01:47] been talking about AI every day. day. And I think we will continue
[00:01:50] continue probably to do so in the the weeks to come. But another one
[00:01:53] one of those stories that really really caught my eye and certainly
[00:01:55] certainly for you guys as well, this
[00:01:57] this week is just that continuing
[00:02:00] continuing feud between the US and
[00:02:02] and Canada and what that has created
[00:02:05] created in terms of, let's say, not
[00:02:07] not new alliances, but stronger alliances alliances elsewhere in the world.
[00:02:10] world. And we saw Canada's Prime Prime Minister Mark Carney heading
[00:02:13] heading to Strasbourg to speak to
[00:02:15] to the European Parliament and an an announcement of something pretty
[00:02:19] pretty unusual, which is that the the EU wants Canada to be what's
[00:02:22] what's called an associate member. member. And nobody seems to know
[00:02:26] know exactly what that means. Yeah, Yeah, it was a real plot twist, wasn't
[00:02:28] wasn't it? It's like it's Canada,
[00:02:30] Canada, the 51st state or the 28th
[00:02:34] 28th member state. As the case may
[00:02:35] may be. And that suggestion from
[00:02:38] from Ursula von der Leyen in her her speech that there be this associate
[00:02:42] associate member offer on the table. table. Really interesting, though
[00:02:44] though we haven't heard what the the EU member states feel like about
[00:02:48] about that. And even Mark Carney, Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister,
[00:02:51] Minister, when he was talking about about it in his speech, he didn't
[00:02:54] didn't actually say, oh yes, please, please, I'll take that very much.
[00:02:57] much. You know, he was kind of vague vague about it as well. I thought.
[00:03:00] thought. Of course we don't actually actually know what exactly this could
[00:03:04] could entail. In his speech in Strasbourg, Strasbourg, Mark Carney laid out
[00:03:06] out kind of a number of economic economic and political ways this
[00:03:10] this could work. Also, students going going back and forth. But I mean,
[00:03:13] mean, it really is kind of a shot shot across the bow for the Trump
[00:03:17] Trump administration. And even in in Mark Carney's speech, he seemed
[00:03:21] seemed to kind of repeatedly refer refer to President Trump without without actually referring to him
[00:03:24] him saying, you know, the threat threat of tariffs has been weaponised
[00:03:28] weaponised and that there's a need need for kind of a new order, a new
[00:03:31] new geopolitical order in the world. world. All of that is very kind of
[00:03:35] of pointedly at Trump, given the the kind of deterioration in relationships.
[00:03:38] relationships. We saw this year. year. All pointedly without saying
[00:03:41] saying President Trump's name. I I thought it was interesting when when Ursula von der Leyen, the commission
[00:03:45] commission president, was speaking speaking the day before that, she
[00:03:48] she said, this is not an alliance alliance against anyone. It is a
[00:03:51] a closer partnership. And that's that's something Mark Carney said
[00:03:54] said in his speech as well to the the European Parliament, which was
[00:03:58] was a stronger Canada and a more more independent and resilient Canada
[00:04:01] Canada makes it a better partner partner to every other country in
[00:04:05] in the world that it shares a partnership partnership with. And it's very clear
[00:04:09] clear here that that message is directed directed at President Trump, but
[00:04:11] but they went to great lengths to to really stress the fact that this
[00:04:15] this was about their partnership partnership growing stronger in a a way we're not exactly sure, of
[00:04:18] of course, what the contours of that that look like without pulling away
[00:04:22] away from the US but the reality reality is we've talked in previous
[00:04:26] previous weeks on this podcast about about just how tense things are between
[00:04:29] between the US and Canada right now, now, and you can't help but think
[00:04:33] think this is a product of that.
[00:04:34] that. And it really enraged President President Trump, didn't it? You know,
[00:04:38] know, he has a trade war going on on with Canada. But at the same time,
[00:04:41] time, he doesn't want them cosying cosying up with anybody else. And
[00:04:45] And he had his usual threat, which which is tariffs all around. If this
[00:04:49] this goes ahead. So I thought that that was quite interesting as well.
[00:04:52] well. And you know it's kind of like like you have this close relationship
[00:04:55] relationship between the US and Canada. Canada. And Canada is now sort of
[00:04:59] of trying to make it into an open open relationship, if you like. It
[00:05:02] It wants to have, you know, good
[00:05:05] good relations with the EU, perhaps perhaps with China as well, because
[00:05:09] because it can't depend on the US US market. But it raises a point
[00:05:12] point of where does this leave Canada Canada after President Trump? I mean,
[00:05:16] mean, if it makes sort of very deeply
[00:05:19] deeply entrenched arrangements with with the EU, with the UK, with China,
[00:05:23] China, with whoever else, and then
[00:05:26] then should there be a president president who is not of the sort
[00:05:29] sort of tariff persuasion like Donald Donald Trump is after Donald Trump,
[00:05:32] Trump, what happens then? How do
[00:05:34] do you unroll or unravel those arrangements? arrangements? I think ultimately,
[00:05:38] ultimately, even if this does happen happen and the EU and Canada are
[00:05:40] are more closely linked economically,
[00:05:42] economically, it doesn't really change change the geography of the issue
[00:05:46] issue for Canada in the US that Canada
[00:05:49] Canada might want to be closer to to the EU, but they still share a
[00:05:52] a very, very long border with the the US many communities on both sides
[00:05:55] sides of that border have businesses businesses that go back and forth. forth. And just, you know, having
[00:05:59] having looked at some of the initial
[00:06:02] initial commentary coming from Canadians, Canadians, you know, Canadians that
[00:06:05] that live in these communities, some some of them think that that's all all well and good. But at the same
[00:06:09] same time, the relationship with with the US really needs to be mended
[00:06:12] mended because, you know, we're going going to be neighbours no matter
[00:06:14] matter how good or bad this relationship
[00:06:16] relationship is, is going to be. be. Yeah, I think that's a great
[00:06:20] great point. What does this all look look like after President Trump? Trump? I guess that very much depends
[00:06:23] depends on who's in the White House. House. Right. But I found it interesting.
[00:06:26] interesting. You know, the Canadians Canadians themselves are wondering
[00:06:30] wondering what a closer relationship relationship with the EU will mean. mean. Will that mean more trouble
[00:06:33] trouble with the US.? And I was speaking speaking in our programmes to a Conservative
[00:06:36] Conservative MP from Canada, so not not from Mark Carney's party. And
[00:06:40] And he was saying, well, you know, know, I have to see the contours
[00:06:43] contours of what this agreement would would be if it is just words and
[00:06:46] and vibes, what does that get us? us? And he said, I get the sense sense or we get the feeling that
[00:06:50] that not everything is rainbows and and unicorns over in the EU either.
[00:06:54] either. So are we trading kind of of one difficult partnership for
[00:06:57] for another and are we going to be be trapped in it? And they certainly certainly want to see more from Mark
[00:07:00] Mark Carney, which of course Mark Mark Carney has said, you know, anything
[00:07:04] anything would be put to the Canadian Canadian parliament. But it's not
[00:07:06] not entirely clear what that anything
[00:07:08] anything would be yet. And I just just wonder, you know, will it be
[00:07:12] be then a benefit for Canada? We We don't know what the price of entry
[00:07:15] entry is for an associate membership. membership. And then down the road,
[00:07:19] road, does that impact in any way way the trading relationship with
[00:07:23] with the US.? And if Canada has really
[00:07:25] really strong trading ties with China,
[00:07:27] China, you mentioned and that has has become a hindrance, as we know,
[00:07:31] know, in negotiations with the US US then does that really imperil
[00:07:34] imperil that relationship down the the road? I thought it was really
[00:07:37] really telling that President Trump's Trump's kind of initial reaction reaction when he was asked about
[00:07:41] about this by reporters on the tarmac tarmac a couple of days ago when
[00:07:44] when he was coming back from his
[00:07:48] his speech, his anger seemed in some some ways a lot more pointed at the
[00:07:51] the European Union. I mean, he threatened threatened tariffs on them and to
[00:07:54] to cut trade with the European Union
[00:07:56] Union in certain sectors. So I mean, mean, what one suspects that at least
[00:07:59] least some of the EU member states
[00:08:01] states think this actually might
[00:08:06] might cause some many, many problems problems in addition to whatever whatever benefit comes from that
[00:08:09] that relationship with Canada. So So it's a really interesting trade trade off and kind of an interesting
[00:08:13] interesting move from the EU's part, part, especially to try to smooth smooth over that relationship with
[00:08:17] with the White House as things are. are. It's also about the precedent
[00:08:21] precedent that this might set right, right, because if you say that Canada
[00:08:24] Canada can be an associate member member of the EU, what does that
[00:08:27] that mean for other countries? There There hasn't been this concept of
[00:08:30] of an associate member before. There's There's only member member states
[00:08:33] states and you have to be on the the continent of Europe to qualify.
[00:08:37] qualify. That's very clear. You have have the UK obviously post-Brexit.
[00:08:41] post-Brexit. There have been suggestions suggestions that the UK might like like to be an associate member that's
[00:08:44] that's been ruled out in the past past because like I say, you're on
[00:08:48] on the continent of Europe. You're You're either a member or you're
[00:08:50] you're not and we won't go back over over that painful chapter of history
[00:08:53] history that we're still living through. through. So, you know, if Canada
[00:08:57] Canada gets a special deal, where
[00:08:59] where does that leave any other nation? nation? Not on the continent of Europe
[00:09:03] Europe for special deals as well. well. And then, you know, do you
[00:09:06] you have questions about how the
[00:09:09] the Common Market is then undermined undermined for the existing member
[00:09:13] member states? If there's extra Canadian Canadian fish, for example? What
[00:09:17] What does that mean for fish products
[00:09:19] products inside the EU for meat for for so on. So I can see, you know,
[00:09:23] know, it was really interesting that that Ursula von der Leyen floated
[00:09:26] floated this, but I want to see how
[00:09:29] how much sort of consultation or or detail has there been behind the
[00:09:32] the scenes with the member states states for what this looks like and
[00:09:35] and what the impact would be? Yeah. Yeah. Because certainly something
[00:09:37] something we know about the EU is
[00:09:39] is that it is also riddled with incredible incredible bureaucracy. So to imagine
[00:09:43] imagine what it would take to get get some sort of concrete form of
[00:09:46] of an associate membership through through the member states is just,
[00:09:49] just, you know, another entire process. process. But I was thinking about about the big picture here, which
[00:09:53] which is a point that Mark Carney Carney has made previously that,
[00:09:56] that, you know, Canada sees some some of its most important relationships
[00:09:59] relationships as being based on values. values. And that's something that
[00:10:01] that he pointed out in his speech speech in Ursula von der Leyen did
[00:10:05] did in hers as well. We've talked talked about the fact that that's
[00:10:07] that's not how President Trump approaches approaches his trading deals, his
[00:10:11] his relationships. It's about transactions.
[00:10:14] transactions. And if it is seen as as a slight to President Trump, you
[00:10:17] you know, how will he react? Yes, Yes, he could threaten more tariffs,
[00:10:20] tariffs, but you get the sense that that the Trump administration is
[00:10:23] is not at all bothered by this whole
[00:10:25] whole middle powers, these alliances alliances on values because they
[00:10:29] they see them as not particularly particularly effective, especially especially in a world of heavyweights
[00:10:33] heavyweights like the US and China China and perhaps Russia. And so,
[00:10:36] so, you know, maybe President Trump Trump might be angry about this,
[00:10:40] this, but what real impact it will will have that he sees or his administration
[00:10:43] administration sees, I wonder if if they really care. And it will
[00:10:46] will be some time before it comes comes into force. Like you mentioned, mentioned, Sue me. The bureaucracy,
[00:10:50] bureaucracy, by the time this moves moves through all the various bodies
[00:10:53] bodies in the EU, President Trump Trump probably would be out of office
[00:10:56] office by the time, you know, even even fast track EU systems take at
[00:11:00] at least a year, if not longer. I I mean, we look at the term free
[00:11:04] free trade deal that's still sort sort of winding its way through the
[00:11:07] the various parts of the European
[00:11:09] European Union. But when you're talking
[00:11:11] talking about values and when I was was thinking about this partnership,
[00:11:15] partnership, if you like, you see
[00:11:16] see that Canada is much more strongly
[00:11:19] strongly aligned with the EU than
[00:11:22] than the US on some of the big geopolitical geopolitical issues of our time,
[00:11:26] time, it recognised the state of of Palestine as most EU member states
[00:11:29] states have. The US has not. It has
[00:11:32] has put an import ban in on goods
[00:11:36] goods coming from the occupied Israeli Israeli territories in the West Bank,
[00:11:39] Bank, as many EU countries have done,
[00:11:41] done, the US has not. So there's there's all these other sort of ways
[00:11:45] ways that Canada is actually now
[00:11:47] now much closer to the EU than it
[00:11:50] it is to its next door neighbour. I think at the same time,
[00:11:52] time, at least here domestically, domestically, President Trump's detractors
[00:11:55] detractors will, more than any other other issue, will point to the trade
[00:11:58] trade and tariffs issue and talk
[00:12:00] talk of the 51st state. Of course, course, as kind of having pushed
[00:12:04] pushed Canada even further into the
[00:12:07] the EU's orbit ideologically and and politically than they were before.
[00:12:11] before. I just don't know of, you you know, particularly many Americans
[00:12:15] Americans that aren't personally personally affected, perhaps those
[00:12:17] those on the border will really get
[00:12:21] get that interested in the kind of of the geopolitical aspects of it
[00:12:24] it rather than just the day to day day economics. But it's certainly
[00:12:27] certainly something I think a lot lot of Democrats and over the next
[00:12:30] next two and a half years will be be hearing quite a lot about how how President Trump pushed Canada
[00:12:34] Canada away from the people who dislike dislike him. Those geopolitics are
[00:12:38] are playing out for average Americans, Americans, though. I mean, I think think about the fact that, you know,
[00:12:42] know, where I'm from in upstate New
[00:12:43] New York, there is a lot of cross-border
[00:12:47] cross-border traffic and my of course, course, my beloved Buffalo Bills
[00:12:50] Bills play the Canadian national national anthem for their home opener.
[00:12:53] opener. Of course, alongside the
[00:12:57] the Star Spangled Banner. But that that was the first time that that that happened. And that's because
[00:13:00] because there are a lot of Canadian Canadian fans who come to see the
[00:13:03] the Buffalo Bills. And I've just just been seeing numbers of the drop
[00:13:06] drop in Canadian tourists. You know, know, there are many who go down down to Florida, for example, in
[00:13:09] in the winter. And that is something something that is noticeable not
[00:13:12] not just in border states. Right.
[00:13:14] Right. And so if you ask the average average American, do they see Canada
[00:13:18] Canada and Canadians as enemies? enemies? I think you might have quite quite a few people scratching their
[00:13:21] their head, even if they are supporters supporters of President Trump and
[00:13:24] and do believe in what he says is is levelling the playing field. So
[00:13:27] So I think the impact will in that that way play out in a way that Americans
[00:13:30] Americans feel. And it's hard to to reverse that punter power if you
[00:13:34] you like, isn't it? You know, customers customers start going to the Caribbean
[00:13:38] Caribbean instead of Florida for for their holidays or companies start
[00:13:41] start doing business. There doesn't doesn't have to be a formal agreement
[00:13:44] agreement with the EU, but for companies companies to just shift their export
[00:13:47] export deals themselves to European European companies rather than to
[00:13:51] to American companies, if that's that's not working out, it becomes
[00:13:53] becomes them very difficult to unpick unpick and unwind that when things
[00:13:57] things get better because they will will get better. I'm sure, as you you were saying, Bernie, you know,
[00:14:01] know, the next door neighbour status
[00:14:03] status will not change. So the fences
[00:14:05] fences will have to be mended. But
[00:14:07] But one does wonder about kind of of the reputational damage among
[00:14:11] among Canadians now I think even, even, you know, going forward, even even long after President Trump is
[00:14:15] is gone, there'll be an acknowledgement acknowledgement that maybe the US
[00:14:17] US isn't always going to be as very
[00:14:21] very neighbourly place in every regard. regard. And I think that kind of
[00:14:23] of is going to be built into Canada's Canada's long-term planning in the
[00:14:27] the future. I do wonder how this this all will play out for Mark Carney,
[00:14:31] Carney, the Prime Minister. We've We've talked about this before, but
[00:14:34] but at some point and you know, I I asked this question a few times
[00:14:36] times to a few analysts and Canadian
[00:14:38] Canadian guests. Can any of these
[00:14:41] these associate memberships or perhaps perhaps new trading agreements that
[00:14:43] that Canada will have going forward forward offset that relationship
[00:14:46] relationship with the US and it can't can't that's very clear. I mean,
[00:14:50] mean, it the US is by far Canada's Canada's biggest trading partner.
[00:14:53] partner. And so at some point, the
[00:14:56] the economic side of it will start start to bite in Canada. And that
[00:14:59] that will be where, you know, you you have to see whether Prime Minister
[00:15:02] Minister Carney remains as popular popular as he has been and whether whether it pushes the Canadians back
[00:15:05] back to the table with the US., which which they say they are open for
[00:15:09] for negotiations, just ones that that are fair. And of course, the
[00:15:11] the other thing is the trade agreement agreement that's in existence there.
[00:15:14] there. The US Mexico-canada agreement. agreement. It's still in place for
[00:15:17] for the guts of another ten years, years, like the negotiations that
[00:15:20] that have fallen apart are about
[00:15:23] about renewing it beyond that term. term. So notwithstanding the impact
[00:15:26] impact of tariffs, a lot of the other
[00:15:29] other regulations are still in place place and a lot of the pain that's
[00:15:32] that's been experienced so far is
[00:15:36] is actually customer boycotts. I I mean, we saw that with the alcohol
[00:15:39] alcohol as well before there was
[00:15:40] was ever a mention of tariffs. Canadians
[00:15:43] Canadians just stopped buying and
[00:15:46] and the shops stopped stocking Californian Californian wine and Kentucky bourbon
[00:15:49] bourbon and all of those things. things. They sort of voted with their their feet. I think unfortunately
[00:15:53] unfortunately that's all the time time we have for now, even though though this is obviously a very meaty
[00:15:57] meaty topic. Indeed it is. And we we will be talking