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[00:00:08] MUSIC
[00:00:11] Live from London. This is BBC News.
[00:00:17] News. President Zelensky says Washington Washington has to make Russia respect.
[00:00:20] respect. An energy cease fire announced
[00:00:22] announced by Donald Trump after Russian
[00:00:24] Russian strikes hit Ukrainian infrastructure
[00:00:26] infrastructure overnight. It was
[00:00:29] was clear that Putin does not read
[00:00:34] read through social. And he is cheeky.
[00:00:36] cheeky. Drones follow a different different set of instructions. These
[00:00:40] These are live pictures from the the Warsaw Security Conference. Donald
[00:00:43] Donald Tusk, the Polish Prime Minister, Minister, speaking there and we're
[00:00:47] we're due to hear from the Supreme Supreme Allied commander of forces
[00:00:50] forces in Europe from Nato due to to speak shortly. We'll bring you
[00:00:53] you that speech live. Saudi officials
[00:00:56] officials say one person has been been killed and nearly a dozen others
[00:01:00] others injured in the latest attack attack on Riyadh's international
[00:01:03] international airport by the Iran Iran backed Houthi group from Yemen.
[00:01:06] Yemen. As America's mid-term elections elections loom, a special report
[00:01:10] report into why data centres powering powering the AI boom are becoming
[00:01:14] becoming a political flashpoint.
[00:01:17] flashpoint. Big night planned. And And Robert Patterson tells the BBC
[00:01:21] BBC why he took on the role of a
[00:01:24] a journalist who helps expose child
[00:01:26] child predators in his new film Primetime.
[00:01:39] Primetime. Hello and I'm Annita McVeigh. McVeigh. Welcome to BBC News Now.
[00:01:42] Now. Volodymyr Zelensky says Ukraine Ukraine is ready to respect the energy
[00:01:46] energy cease fire announced by President
[00:01:49] President Trump at the weekend. If If Russia does the same. The Ukrainian
[00:01:52] Ukrainian president was addressing addressing the Warsaw Security Forum
[00:01:55] Forum after Russia carried out more more deadly attacks in Ukraine's
[00:01:58] Ukraine's second largest city, Kharkiv.
[00:02:01] Kharkiv. If Russia wants us to stop
[00:02:05] stop our long range strikes against
[00:02:07] against its oil refineries and oil
[00:02:10] oil exports, then Russia must stop
[00:02:12] stop its strikes against our energy
[00:02:17] energy system and critical infrastructure
[00:02:20] infrastructure and stop killing our
[00:02:22] our people. This is only fair. We
[00:02:26] We haven't heard anything definitive definitive from Moscow, but Kremlin
[00:02:30] Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has has told reporters that contacts
[00:02:34] contacts are continuing around an an energy cease fire. President Zelensky
[00:02:37] Zelensky also made an appeal directly directly to the United States. Europe
[00:02:41] Europe is not the source of the problems.
[00:02:43] problems. Europe is not the one making
[00:02:47] making everything more difficult. difficult. Most importantly, we need
[00:02:50] need people in America every morning morning when the day in Europe is
[00:02:54] is already moving toward evening
[00:02:57] evening to really see what is happening,
[00:03:00] happening, to see the truth. We want
[00:03:04] want peace and we are ready to work
[00:03:06] work together with America and with
[00:03:09] with everyone else to end this war.
[00:03:11] war. And we need to feel that same
[00:03:18] same unity from America. America America is without question the strongest
[00:03:21] strongest country in the world, and and it's important that America uses
[00:03:25] uses its strengths to make the world
[00:03:27] world a better place. President Zelensky
[00:03:30] Zelensky said Russia deliberately deliberately hit power plants and
[00:03:33] and civilian areas following President President Trump's announcement on
[00:03:36] on Sunday. This footage shows damage damage from an industrial site near
[00:03:40] near the capital Kyiv, and overnight overnight there have been more strikes
[00:03:43] strikes targeting infrastructure, infrastructure, causing power outages
[00:03:46] outages in a number of cities, including
[00:03:48] including Kharkiv, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia. And let's speak now
[00:03:51] now to our Ukraine correspondent correspondent Dan Johnson, who's
[00:03:54] who's in Kyiv. Dan, hello to you. you. Does it feel like there is an
[00:03:57] an energy cease fire there right
[00:04:01] right now? Not to the residents of
[00:04:03] of Kyiv who have been suffering power power outages sporadically over the
[00:04:07] the past week or more now, and they they are still living with that reality.
[00:04:10] reality. Some of that is planned. planned. They've been scheduled power
[00:04:14] power outages to try to preserve preserve electricity, but that has
[00:04:17] has left people in the cold, in the the dark and sometimes without water
[00:04:20] water because power is needed to to pump that to some of the tower
[00:04:24] tower blocks where people live in in apartments. There's also been
[00:04:27] been disruption to public transport. transport. The metro trains have have ground to a halt at times. The
[00:04:31] The trolley buses are frozen up on on the roads and had to be towed
[00:04:35] towed back to the depot. So everybody
[00:04:36] everybody here knows the reality
[00:04:39] reality of the impact of Russia's Russia's attacks on the energy network,
[00:04:42] network, and they know how grim that that could have been if they continue
[00:04:46] continue through the winter months. months. They've lived through it
[00:04:48] it for four years now. They know know when it gets really bitterly
[00:04:51] bitterly cold, just how desperate desperate life can be without electricity.
[00:04:54] electricity. It's why so many people people consider leaving big cities,
[00:04:58] cities, perhaps even leaving Ukraine Ukraine altogether for the winter.
[00:05:01] winter. So the hope will be that that this will make a positive difference. difference. And Zelensky said this
[00:05:05] this morning he hoped it was a step step towards potentially de-escalating
[00:05:08] de-escalating wider issues in the the war. But will Russia respect
[00:05:11] respect it? Has Russia actually signed signed up? No commitment from them
[00:05:15] them yet? And with his speech a couple couple of hours ago, Dan, do you
[00:05:18] you think President Zelensky is really really trying to shift the pressure pressure onto President Putin to
[00:05:22] to also agree to this energy cease
[00:05:24] cease fire? And if he doesn't, to
[00:05:27] to pressure the US to do something
[00:05:30] something about it? Yeah. President
[00:05:33] President Zelensky seems to have have although he was taken by surprise surprise by Donald Trump's announcement
[00:05:37] announcement yesterday. And he made made that clear this morning that
[00:05:39] that this came out of the blue, that that he had not agreed to it. As
[00:05:42] As Donald Trump said, he seems to to have taken the pragmatic approach approach that this is what he'd been
[00:05:46] been calling for. It's what Ukraine Ukraine needs. So therefore he's
[00:05:49] he's going to sign up to it. He's He's going to adopt it and abide
[00:05:52] abide by it. But he needs the Russians
[00:05:53] Russians to respect it too. And he
[00:05:57] he believes that will require American American pressure. So that's what what he's called for. He's trying
[00:06:00] trying to rebuild a relationship relationship with Donald Trump that's
[00:06:03] that's been fractious anyway, but but particularly difficult over the
[00:06:07] the past couple of days when Donald Donald Trump announced that deal
[00:06:10] deal with Vladimir Putin to allow allow Russia to sell diesel again.
[00:06:14] again. Vladimir Volodymyr Zelensky Zelensky said that that showed weakness
[00:06:17] weakness by the Americans. And Donald Donald Trump responded to that, saying saying that Zelensky should clear
[00:06:21] clear off that there should be elections elections for a new president. So
[00:06:24] So that relationship has to be restored.
[00:06:26] restored. Zelensky's hope is that
[00:06:28] that this can be a positive move
[00:06:31] move in terms of preserving his country's country's energy infrastructure, infrastructure, but that it may have
[00:06:34] have wider implications that he may may be able to take a step towards
[00:06:38] towards ending the war. If that's that's not possible, I think Zelensky
[00:06:40] Zelensky is at least trying to put put himself in a positive position
[00:06:43] position as an honest broker where where he's not the one to blame if
[00:06:47] if this ceasefire is not respected, respected, the expectation amongst
[00:06:50] amongst Ukrainians is even if this this positive step is a reality,
[00:06:54] reality, it doesn't mean an end to to the war. In the short-term, the the attacks will continue. We've
[00:06:57] We've seen that this morning with with repeated air raids on Kyiv and
[00:07:00] and on other cities to Russia has has got a whole barrage of drones
[00:07:04] drones and missiles, which presumably presumably it will now redirect to
[00:07:08] to other targets. And Dan, briefly,
[00:07:09] briefly, as long as President Trump
[00:07:12] Trump has this diesel deal with Russia, Russia, do Ukrainians really hold
[00:07:15] hold out any hope of the US administration
[00:07:18] administration applying any additional
[00:07:20] additional pressure to the Kremlin?
[00:07:24] Kremlin? Well, they're doubtful about about that because of Donald Trump's
[00:07:27] Trump's past track record, the way way that he always seems to fall
[00:07:31] fall on the side of Vladimir Putin Putin whenever there's a choice to
[00:07:34] to be made over this war and the the fact that he's not criticised
[00:07:38] criticised the Russians for seemingly seemingly breaching that energy ceasefire
[00:07:42] ceasefire already. So the Ukrainians Ukrainians are very circumspect about
[00:07:46] about Donald Trump and his attitude attitude towards their country. But
[00:07:49] But I think they see the best thing thing they can do for the time being
[00:07:52] being is to fall in behind their their president to support this,
[00:07:55] this, to cease their attacks on Russia's
[00:07:57] Russia's oil infrastructure in hope hope that Russia will see the benefits
[00:08:01] benefits to itself from this deal deal and respect it. But they know
[00:08:05] know the cost. If this isn't respected, respected, they know there's a difficult
[00:08:09] difficult winter ahead and that that that will only mean the war continues continues and potentially puts them
[00:08:13] them at even greater risk. OK, Dan,
[00:08:15] Dan, thank you very much for that.
[00:08:18] that. Dan Johnson in Kyiv. Well, Well, Ukraine, as you would expect,
[00:08:21] expect, is a major focus at the Warsaw Warsaw Security Forum. We've already
[00:08:25] already heard from President Zelensky. Zelensky. Of course, you saw some some clips of him. And in the next
[00:08:29] next few minutes, as we look at these
[00:08:31] these pictures from inside the main main room at the forum there we will
[00:08:35] will be hearing from the Supreme Supreme Allied commander of forces
[00:08:38] forces in Europe that is US General
[00:08:43] General Alexis, and he is expected
[00:08:45] expected to warn Russia of the alliance's
[00:08:48] alliance's ability to counter any any attack. So that's going to be
[00:08:51] be very much chiming with the warnings
[00:08:54] warnings from European leaders of of threats from Russia. We've heard
[00:08:57] heard it from President Zelensky Zelensky this morning saying don't
[00:09:01] don't underestimate the threat to to your countries. We know Russia
[00:09:03] Russia is planning many hybrid attacks, attacks, he said. And recent comments
[00:09:07] comments from other European leaders, leaders, for example, Chancellor
[00:09:10] Chancellor Mertes, the German leader, leader, saying European security
[00:09:13] security is at stake in Ukraine and
[00:09:16] and we will bring you that speech
[00:09:18] speech as soon as it begins. But But first to our other main story.
[00:09:22] story. Yemen's Houthi rebels have have renewed their warnings against
[00:09:25] against using airports in Saudi Arabia.
[00:09:27] Arabia. It comes after two deadly deadly strikes on Riyadh's main international
[00:09:31] international airport in as many many days. Saudi officials say one
[00:09:34] one person was killed and 11 wounded
[00:09:36] wounded in an attack on King Khalid Khalid International Airport on Sunday,
[00:09:40] Sunday, the day before 13 people people were killed and more than
[00:09:44] than 300 injured in a missile strike. strike. The deadliest attack on Saudi
[00:09:47] Saudi soil in more than a decade.
[00:09:50] decade. The Houthis, who are backed backed by Iran, say they are targeting
[00:09:54] targeting Saudi Arabia over its support support for government forces in
[00:09:57] in Yemen's civil war. Let's speak speak now to Mohammed Ali Harris,
[00:10:01] Harris, the foreign editor at The The National. He's speaking to us
[00:10:04] us from Abu Dhabi in the United Arab
[00:10:06] Arab Emirates. Mohammed, welcome
[00:10:09] welcome to the programme. How much much pressure is the Saudi Crown
[00:10:12] Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Salman under right now to find a
[00:10:15] a way to respond to the Houthis?
[00:10:19] Houthis? Well, this is certainly certainly turning into a defining defining moment in the history of
[00:10:22] of Saudi Arabia and probably a turning
[00:10:25] turning point in GCC relations to to the attack that killed 13 people
[00:10:28] people on Saturday is the biggest biggest attack in Saudi Arabia since
[00:10:32] since more than a decade when Isis Isis was claiming bombings in the
[00:10:36] the kingdom. It is also the largest largest attack by a foreign power
[00:10:40] power in from a foreign country against against Saudi Arabia. So there is
[00:10:43] is definitely a lot of pressure on on the Saudi crown prince, on the
[00:10:47] the Saudi government and on the Saudi Saudi army too. We've heard the Saudis
[00:10:51] Saudis speak up today and explain explain that Saudi Arabia is a very
[00:10:54] very vast country and you cannot cannot defend against every missile
[00:10:58] missile and every drone. And so even even if you protect the borders,
[00:11:02] borders, there are missiles that that cannot be intercepted at some
[00:11:05] some time. So the pressure is growing.
[00:11:09] growing. And as the attacks multiply, multiply, we will see more reaction
[00:11:12] reaction from the Saudis. And we we are expecting more action in Yemen.
[00:11:15] Yemen. They have started to claim
[00:11:19] claim operations against the Houthis. Houthis. Dozens of operations on on a daily basis. But maybe in the
[00:11:22] the next few hours or the next few few days, we'll see more surgical
[00:11:25] surgical operations. The pressure pressure is growing. You say is the
[00:11:29] the Houthis confidence also
[00:11:34] growing? Oh, absolutely. Causing Causing a massive casualty incident
[00:11:37] incident in Saudi Arabia, forcing
[00:11:39] forcing the airport to close, attacking attacking other airports and oil
[00:11:43] oil facilities. This is definitely definitely something that the Houthis
[00:11:46] Houthis were seeking and wanted to to happen. But it's not only Houthis
[00:11:50] Houthis that are gaining from this. this. It's also Iran because the
[00:11:53] the Houthis, as you mentioned at at the beginning, are backed by Iran.
[00:11:56] Iran. They are Iranian proxy. And
[00:11:59] And they when they escalate every every time Iran felt pressure from
[00:12:02] from the US or felt that there is
[00:12:04] is a war resuming, resuming, the the Houthis escalated more against
[00:12:08] against the Saudi, which is a major major US ally. So it's not only the
[00:12:11] the Houthis, but it's only Iran benefiting benefiting and putting more pressure
[00:12:14] pressure on the US through Saudi Saudi Arabia. What are the implications
[00:12:18] implications for Saudi's neighbours, neighbours, the wider region? Well,
[00:12:22] Well, this is like I said at the the beginning, it's could be a major
[00:12:26] major turning point also for GCC GCC relations and for other countries.
[00:12:30] countries. We've heard the Emiratis Emiratis say today, Doctor that this
[00:12:33] this attack on Saudi Arabia means means that the UAE and other Gulf
[00:12:37] Gulf countries are being attacked attacked too, because the security
[00:12:39] security of Saudi Arabia is very very tightly related and linked to
[00:12:43] to the security of other countries countries in the region. We've also
[00:12:46] also heard the Saudis say a few days
[00:12:49] days ago that the security of the
[00:12:51] the Gulf is one security and cannot
[00:12:54] cannot be divided. So we'll definitely
[00:12:56] definitely see more action from joint
[00:13:00] joint action from the GCC leaders leaders and GCC countries. There
[00:13:03] There is a GCC Gulf mechanism that
[00:13:07] that requires or that indicates that
[00:13:09] that GCC countries have to act together.
[00:13:11] together. It has been activated twice twice before, once in Kuwait during
[00:13:15] during the Gulf War and once in Bahrain
[00:13:17] Bahrain when there were protests.
[00:13:20] protests. So will we see the Saudis
[00:13:22] Saudis asking for this mechanism mechanism to be activated again?
[00:13:25] again? It's yet to be seen, but the the pattern and the path is that
[00:13:29] that we're seeing more more push
[00:13:32] push towards a collective GCC reaction. reaction. OK. Mohammed Ali Harris,
[00:13:35] Harris, thank you very much for your your thoughts on that developing
[00:13:39] developing story today. Now, let
[00:13:41] let me just remind you that we will
[00:13:43] will be going momentarily to Warsaw,
[00:13:45] Warsaw, where Nato Supreme commander
[00:13:48] commander of forces in Europe, US
[00:13:50] US General Alexis Grynkiewicz, has has just begun to speak. We're going
[00:13:53] going to take you to that in just just a moment. He is expected to
[00:13:56] to warn Russia of the Nato alliances
[00:14:00] alliances ability to counter any any attack from Russia. As President
[00:14:03] President Zelensky there at the forum forum and other European leaders
[00:14:06] leaders in recent days have warned
[00:14:08] warned of a variety of threats from
[00:15:12] And is Europe ready? The security.
[00:15:18] Europe ready? The security. Brief live with an audience here
[00:15:19] here on BBC News. This is BBC News.
[00:15:24] News. You are watching Nato Supreme
[00:15:26] Supreme commander of forces in Europe, Europe, Alex Grynkiewicz speaking
[00:15:29] speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum. Forum. Let's listen. In strength
[00:15:33] strength in the case of Nato, that's that's the strength of 32 nations
[00:15:37] nations together. One essential strength
[00:15:39] strength of our alliance is decision decision advantage. We sense and
[00:15:43] and see the environment through a
[00:15:45] a sophisticated layering of intelligence intelligence provided by Multi-source
[00:15:48] Multi-source collection assets that that deliver tremendous amounts of
[00:15:51] of data. We use this data to develop
[00:15:54] develop crucial insights using advanced advanced algorithms to make sense
[00:15:58] sense of these inputs. The key output output is a deep understanding of
[00:16:01] of the strategic and operational operational environment. This means
[00:16:05] means the alliance is unlikely to to be caught by surprise. We will
[00:16:09] will see if an attack is coming, coming, giving us time to assess
[00:16:13] assess and rapidly position our forces.
[00:16:15] forces. In doing so, we aim to deter.
[00:16:17] deter. But these movements also prepare
[00:16:19] prepare us to deny any potential potential attack, including those
[00:16:22] those aimed at seizing and holding holding Nato territory as a fait
[00:16:26] fait accompli. In short, they prepare prepare us to execute our most sacred
[00:16:30] sacred task the defence of our people
[00:16:32] people and our territory to help help us accomplish this task, we
[00:16:35] we developed our theory of victory victory in recent days. Some have
[00:16:38] have called it a plan, but it's not, not, at least not in the military
[00:16:42] military sense of the word. Rather, Rather, our theory of victory provides
[00:16:46] provides the alliance a common vision vision for how we win in deterrence
[00:16:50] deterrence and defence. It provides provides my commander's intent to
[00:16:53] to help us focus our militaries on on the key tasks we must accomplish
[00:16:57] accomplish in combat, and how we we must demonstrate the ability to
[00:17:00] to do these in order to deter. And And it is grounded in a clear eyed
[00:17:04] eyed view of the threats we face
[00:17:06] face and the lessons of modern warfare
[00:17:08] warfare from Ukraine and in the Middle
[00:17:10] Middle East. As such, my theory of
[00:17:13] of victory is simple we will block
[00:17:15] block the initial attack. If the the attack persists, we will blunt
[00:17:19] blunt it and prevent enemy advance advance and if required, we will
[00:17:23] will break the enemy's forces and and the operational warfighting system
[00:17:26] system that is arrayed against us
[00:17:29] us to block our land. Forces will
[00:17:31] will move to dominate any enemy assault assault at the point of contact through
[00:17:35] through manoeuver we will fix the the enemy formations and deny the
[00:17:38] the seizure of alliance territory. territory. Land based forces will
[00:17:42] will attack the enemy and destroy destroy his advancing forces. But
[00:17:45] But they won't be doing this alone. alone. Our air forces and navies
[00:17:48] navies working in concert with our our space and cyber forces will rapidly
[00:17:53] rapidly gain freedom of manoeuver manoeuver with air and maritime superiority
[00:17:56] superiority rapidly secured in and and over the battle space, these
[00:18:00] these forces will bring mass and and precision to bear, denying the
[00:18:04] the enemy the ability to hold their
[00:18:07] their ground. Following this initial
[00:18:09] initial block. We will blunt any any ongoing or follow on offensive
[00:18:13] offensive actions against us using using advanced sensors, autonomous
[00:18:17] autonomous systems and multi-domain multi-domain forces, we will deny deny the attacker the ability to
[00:18:21] to generate momentum or gain the the initiative. Synchronised employment
[00:18:24] employment of multi-domain effects effects down to the tactical level
[00:18:27] level will overwhelm enemy formations formations in contact and their advance
[00:18:31] advance if it's continuing at all
[00:18:33] all at this point, will falter further
[00:18:37] further should the adversary choose choose to press the attack or commit
[00:18:39] commit his reserves, we will break break the warfighting system engaged
[00:18:43] engaged against us. This includes includes not just the attacking force
[00:18:47] force itself, but anything and everything everything that supports, sustains
[00:18:50] sustains or controls that force. force. To do this, we will lay our
[00:18:54] our high end and highly effective effective precision munitions with
[00:18:58] with an overpowering mass of affordable affordable and scalable systems.
[00:19:02] systems. We will apply constant and
[00:19:04] and unyielding pressure both kinetic
[00:19:06] kinetic and non-kinetic. We will
[00:19:09] will do this across and through domains
[00:19:12] domains land, air, sea space and and cyberspace. Doing this will break
[00:19:15] break the enemy system and defeat
[00:19:17] defeat it in detail. Enemy formations
[00:19:20] formations will be starved of replenishment. replenishment. Any enemy commanders
[00:19:23] commanders will be unable to control control their forces and enemy forces
[00:19:27] forces and support capabilities will
[00:19:29] will be reduced and destroyed. In
[00:19:31] In executing what I've outlined above, above, we are not seeking to impose
[00:19:35] impose a strategic defeat on our
[00:19:38] our adversary, nor do we need to
[00:19:40] to do so. Rather, we are only seeking
[00:19:43] seeking to stop any attack in its its tracks to deny the ability to
[00:19:47] to seize and hold our territory. territory. Achieving this requires
[00:19:50] requires the tactical and operational operational defeat of the forces
[00:19:53] forces being employed against us.
[00:19:55] us. But no more. We break the warfighting warfighting system attacking us in
[00:19:59] in order to render it unable to continue
[00:20:01] continue that attack or as Clausewitz
[00:20:03] Clausewitz would put it, we force force it to culminate, meaning we
[00:20:07] we degrade it to the point where where it's no longer able to perform
[00:20:10] perform its warfighting functions. functions. It is this aspect of our
[00:20:14] our theory of victory, a theory grounded grounded in decisive action. But
[00:20:17] But action always in pursuit of a a denial defence in accordance with
[00:20:21] with DDA that allows us to maintain
[00:20:23] maintain a favourable position with with respect to escalation. Since
[00:20:26] Since we only need to attack the the system that is attacking us.
[00:20:29] us. And since we are only doing this this to prevent it from achieving
[00:20:33] achieving its goals, we have no need
[00:20:36] need and no incentive to escalate. escalate. This means the burden of
[00:20:39] of escalation would rest squarely squarely upon the aggressor. They
[00:20:43] They and they alone would bear the
[00:20:45] the full moral, political and strategic strategic weight of deciding whether
[00:20:49] whether to do so. And here we must
[00:20:51] must ensure the adversary also knows knows that we have the advantage
[00:20:54] advantage that escalation will only
[00:20:56] only worsen his position both militarily
[00:20:59] militarily and politically, and should should an adversary threaten escalation
[00:21:03] escalation by sabre rattling, or or should one actually decide to
[00:21:06] to escalate during conflict, it will
[00:21:08] will not fracture our alliance. Instead,
[00:21:11] Instead, it will only bind us more more tightly. Together. We should
[00:21:15] should take comfort in our ability ability to deliver mass effects and
[00:21:18] and the implicit warning that we we could match any enemy, move up
[00:21:22] up the escalation ladder. The same same factor should also give pause
[00:21:26] pause to any adversary seeing an
[00:21:28] an alliance united, strong and ready, ready, they should quickly realise
[00:21:31] realise the military calculus of
[00:21:33] of escalation is too high. So given
[00:21:37] given this theory of victory, this this vision of how we win, where
[00:21:41] where do we go from here across the
[00:21:44] the Alliance, we're taking steps steps to operationalise this theory
[00:21:46] theory and maximise the readiness readiness of our forces. If attacked,
[00:21:50] attacked, we are ready to fight tonight. tonight. But we are not complacent.
[00:21:53] complacent. We will continue to prepare prepare and rehearse each and every
[00:21:56] every day and will be more ready ready tomorrow and even more ready
[00:21:59] ready the day after that. Preparing Preparing ourselves to fight according
[00:22:03] according to this theory of victory victory is first of course, about
[00:22:06] about winning in defence. But demonstrating
[00:22:08] demonstrating our readiness is also also central to preventing conflict,
[00:22:12] conflict, showing we are ready to to execute according to our theory
[00:22:15] theory of victory is also is thus
[00:22:17] thus also key to winning in deterrence
[00:22:20] deterrence and as a defensive alliance alliance it should be clear to all all that maintaining effective and
[00:22:24] and credible deterrence is precisely
[00:22:26] precisely where we want to be. Every
[00:22:30] Every activity, every exercise and and every zloty, euro, dollar, lira,
[00:22:34] lira, pound or kroner that we invest
[00:22:37] invest contributes to this. Our theory theory of victory allows us to focus
[00:22:40] focus these efforts to demonstrate demonstrate we're ready to block
[00:22:44] block blunt and break. So our forward
[00:22:47] forward land forces on the eastern eastern flank will exercise and demonstrate
[00:22:50] demonstrate their ability to block block any attack. Our air and maritime
[00:22:54] maritime forces will exercise and and demonstrate our ability to gain
[00:22:56] gain and maintain freedom of manoeuver manoeuver and deliver multi-domain
[00:22:59] multi-domain effects. To further further blunt any attack, we will
[00:23:03] will invest in both high end and and affordable long range precision
[00:23:06] precision strike capabilities, sensor sensor networks and warfighting cloud
[00:23:09] cloud to reinforce our ability to
[00:23:12] to break any adversary warfighting warfighting system to render it impotent
[00:23:15] impotent and unable to continue the the attack. Our combined investments
[00:23:18] investments in readiness and capabilities
[00:23:20] capabilities help prepare us to defend. defend. But more importantly, they
[00:23:24] they are also our best means for for avoiding having to do so. Our
[00:23:28] Our first goal is deterrence avoiding
[00:23:30] avoiding conflict. But if that deterrence
[00:23:33] deterrence is gained by that, deterrence deterrence is gained by demonstrating
[00:23:35] demonstrating our strength and communicating
[00:23:38] communicating our resolve without
[00:23:40] without provocation. Nato does not not seek war with anyone. Indeed,
[00:23:44] Indeed, as the overall commander commander of Nato's operational forces,
[00:23:47] forces, implementing the theory of of victory I've described today would
[00:23:51] would require me to issue orders orders that I hope to never give.
[00:23:54] give. Our alliance exists to preserve preserve peace. But let there be
[00:23:58] be no doubt should war come, we will
[00:24:01] will block blunt any attack and then
[00:24:04] then if it does not cease, we will will break the forces conducting
[00:24:07] conducting aggression against us. us. We're rehearsed and we're ready
[00:24:11] ready and we'll be more ready today.
[00:24:13] today. More ready tomorrow and every
[00:24:16] every day after that we stand here here together in Poland today, stronger
[00:24:20] stronger than ever, united in our our common vision of a more balanced,
[00:24:22] balanced, more ready and more lethal lethal alliance. We know how we will
[00:24:26] will fight if a fight comes to us
[00:24:28] us and we know we will win. And together together we will ensure that any
[00:24:32] any adversary who considers attacking attacking our alliance reaches the
[00:24:34] the only conclusion that matters.
[00:24:37] matters. Today is not the day. So So thank you very much and I look
[00:24:41] look forward to our discussion.
[00:24:54] Thank you, thank you general. I
[00:24:56] think there's so much to talk about
[00:24:59] about here. But let me start by saying,
[00:25:02] saying, as we have only 15 minutes. minutes. Let me start by asking the
[00:25:05] the most obvious question. This theory
[00:25:07] theory of victory has been around around for quite some time, at least
[00:25:11] least a year. I know people in classified classified rooms have heard this
[00:25:15] this theory before. Why have you
[00:25:19] you decided to go public now and
[00:25:21] and why here in Warsaw? Well, thanks. thanks. We have been working on this
[00:25:25] this theory of victory for quite quite a while. There have been various
[00:25:28] various versions of it that have
[00:25:32] have come come together. We finalised finalised it about three months ago
[00:25:35] ago in the final version that exists exists in the classified format.
[00:25:38] format. The reason for going public, public, I think, is I tie it to the
[00:25:42] the security environment that we we talked about this morning with with the amount of activity that's
[00:25:46] that's going on in terms of sabotage
[00:25:47] sabotage and arson, I think our populations
[00:25:50] populations around the alliance are are a bit nervous. And what I want
[00:25:54] want to do is assure the 1 billion billion citizens of our alliance
[00:25:57] alliance that we've got this. We We know what we need to do. We know
[00:26:00] know how we would do it. And it's it's going to take all of us working
[00:26:03] working together. But we've got this
[00:26:05] this equally. I want others to know know who might be thinking about
[00:26:09] about doing harm against us, that that we've got this and that they'd
[00:26:13] they'd better not take any shot at at the alliance because again, we
[00:26:16] we know exactly what we're going going to do in deterrence and defence,
[00:26:19] defence, and we know exactly how how we'll handle any challenge to
[00:26:21] to our alliance. Should someone again again be foolish enough to try to
[00:26:25] to attack our territory? You're saying saying we've got this? So let me
[00:26:28] me challenge you on this. Does your
[00:26:31] your theory assess a situation in
[00:26:34] in which we have a war on two fronts,
[00:26:36] fronts, not only here in the European European theatre, but actually a
[00:26:40] a potential other theatre in the the Asia Pacific where the United
[00:26:44] United States forces might be entangled entangled in big actions. What happens
[00:26:47] happens then? Yeah, it absolutely absolutely does account for that.
[00:26:50] that. And in fact, it must. And that's that's one of the reasons why we
[00:26:53] we took so much time going through
[00:26:54] through this. We had a very useful
[00:26:57] useful from a military observation observation standpoint, look at this.
[00:27:01] this. When we had conflict ongoing ongoing in the Middle East at the the same time as the conflict in
[00:27:05] in Ukraine. And it gave us real insight insight on what the stresses on our
[00:27:08] our warfighting system would be and and how we needed to adapt it. So So some of the things in the theory
[00:27:12] theory of victory, like depending depending on large amounts of affordable
[00:27:15] affordable mass to pair with our our high end precision weapons, are are part of the things that we've
[00:27:19] we've learned here that we are going going to need to use kind of a high,
[00:27:22] high, low mix of capabilities in in order to achieve the things that that we need to do. So it absolutely
[00:27:26] absolutely does account for that.
[00:27:27] that. It accounts for the, the investments
[00:27:31] investments that we're making in in high end capabilities, but is
[00:27:33] is also posits that we need to ensure ensure we're equally investing in
[00:27:36] in those, those lower end capabilities capabilities and allies are doing doing that. You're doing that right
[00:27:40] right here in Poland and it's fantastic
[00:27:42] fantastic to see. We do have this.
[00:27:45] this. So you're talking about the the Middle East conflict. And I think
[00:27:48] think the first lesson learned is
[00:27:50] is how small are our stockpiles?
[00:27:52] stockpiles? Do you think that we
[00:27:54] we are improving? We can see that that Ukraine has major issues in
[00:27:58] in buying missiles, for example, example, for interceptors, for Patriot
[00:28:02] Patriot systems. Even when we have have the money, we simply cannot
[00:28:05] cannot find them anywhere. When will
[00:28:08] will we be prepared? You know, as as I said, we're prepared now. Now
[00:28:11] Now could we be better prepared? prepared? Absolutely no military military commander is ever going
[00:28:14] going to tell you they don't want want more of everything. And I'm
[00:28:17] I'm not going to be the first to to ever say that. So the investments
[00:28:20] investments that we're making right right now, and particularly the investments investments in our industrial base,
[00:28:24] base, not just to deliver capability capability but to sustain a fight
[00:28:27] fight as it's ongoing, as we've seen seen in Ukraine over the last several
[00:28:30] several years. That's a that's really really important for our industry industry reps here to understand
[00:28:34] understand is we need not just the the delivery of the initial capability,
[00:28:37] capability, but the to keep it going going over time. And I would tell
[00:28:40] tell you, you know, we I look very very carefully at the stockpiles
[00:28:43] stockpiles across the alliance. I'm I'm very comfortable with what we we have available today, and I know
[00:28:47] know we'll continue to improve
[00:28:52] it. And when you look at what's happening happening today in Ukraine, when when you look at this fall, I know
[00:28:56] know that the theory of victory is is about the alliance. It's about
[00:28:59] about an attack. And of course, deterring
[00:29:01] deterring such an attack from our our perspective, from Russia. But
[00:29:04] But the war in Ukraine is going to
[00:29:07] to determine how much stronger or or weaker Russia is going to be.
[00:29:10] be. It is at the moment determining
[00:29:12] determining this. What is your assessment
[00:29:15] assessment of the situation in Ukraine,
[00:29:17] Ukraine, both on the battlefield battlefield and across the society?
[00:29:21] society? Of course, energy, infrastructure infrastructure and all critical infrastructure
[00:29:25] infrastructure that Ukraine has. has. What should we be expecting expecting in the next few weeks and
[00:29:28] and months? You know, the Ukrainians Ukrainians have done an amazing job
[00:29:31] job over the last several months
[00:29:33] months in particular, really throughout throughout all of 2026. The front
[00:29:37] front line is is largely stabilised.
[00:29:40] stabilised. And that that's a huge,
[00:29:43] huge, you know, kudos to the fighting fighting spirit of the Ukrainians, Ukrainians, their innovative spirit
[00:29:47] spirit and what they've been able able to do on that front line despite
[00:29:51] despite the differences in manpower manpower and the differences in resources resources that might be available.
[00:29:54] available. So we ought to we really really ought to laud them. And I
[00:29:58] I do admire what they've been able able to do. That's the front line.
[00:30:01] line. There are other places that that we need to look at, and that's that's the long range strikes. And
[00:30:05] And we talked about this a little little bit this morning. And President
[00:30:09] President Zelensky mentioned this, this, you know, the continued attacks
[00:30:12] attacks on energy infrastructure infrastructure that are intended intended to make it hard on the civilian
[00:30:15] civilian population and try to break break the will of the Ukrainian people. people. That's going to make for
[00:30:19] for a very hard winter. I will also also say it's probably not going
[00:30:23] going to work if we have you know, know, people have underestimated underestimated the Ukrainians since
[00:30:27] since the beginning of this conflict. conflict. I'm not going to make that that mistake again. They're going
[00:30:30] going to get through this winter. winter. They're going to come out
[00:30:32] out of it with more resolve and more more fight. Ultimately, I hope that
[00:30:36] that we can I hope that we can end
[00:30:38] end this conflict and achieve a lasting
[00:30:42] lasting peace. But if we can't, I I know the Ukrainians are going to
[00:30:45] to continue to fight. You and Nato
[00:30:53] Nato have, of course, been observing observing what's happening in Ukraine
[00:30:56] Ukraine for the last five years. years. How would the theory of