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[00:00:02] Now on BBC News. The latest
[00:00:04] business news from across the globe.
[00:00:06] globe. Business Today. MUSIC
[00:00:17] MUSIC Oil Oil under pressure. Energy chiefs chiefs pull out of a major gathering
[00:00:20] gathering in Riyadh after Iran backed
[00:00:22] backed Houthis attack the main airport.
[00:00:25] airport. Also tough choices being being made for finance ministers
[00:00:28] ministers as they meet in Bangkok.
[00:00:30] Bangkok. As the head of the IMF warns
[00:00:32] warns countries to rein in the spending
[00:00:34] spending as debts and borrowings
[00:00:37] borrowings surge. And not just a
[00:00:39] a pretty face. Research on the financial
[00:00:41] financial boost coming from the UK's UK's beauty sector. But could it
[00:00:45] it also give a much needed facelift
[00:00:47] facelift to Britain's high streets?
[00:00:52] streets? Hello there and welcome welcome to Business Today.
[00:00:59] Today. I'm Lukwesa Burak oil prices. We have to start here don't don't we? And they remain volatile
[00:01:02] volatile at the moment, hovering hovering at around $106 a barrel
[00:01:05] barrel as those tensions continue continue to rise following deadly
[00:01:08] deadly attacks in Saudi Arabia, including
[00:01:10] including a strike on Riyadh Airport Airport itself, fresh incidents in
[00:01:14] in the Strait of Hormuz have also also heightened fears of disruptions
[00:01:18] disruptions to oil exports. Amanda
[00:01:21] Amanda Rastovic is the senior forecasting forecasting analyst at Expana Markets,
[00:01:25] Markets, and she says that without without a resolution, the outlook
[00:01:29] outlook for the winter looks pretty
[00:01:31] pretty bleak. Before the you know,
[00:01:33] know, the crisis in the issue with
[00:01:35] with Iran started about 17% of crude
[00:01:38] crude was moving by pipeline. Now
[00:01:40] Now we they have increased that to
[00:01:43] to 40%. But that is finite. You cannot
[00:01:46] cannot just lay more pipe and move move more crude oil. So as the Houthis,
[00:01:50] Houthis, you know, begin to target target more of that infrastructure,
[00:01:53] infrastructure, we could see this this take a step back, which is really
[00:01:57] really unfortunate because we've we've just started to see, you know,
[00:02:00] know, oil flows get back to pre-crisis
[00:02:03] pre-crisis levels. So to have this, this, you know, tensions flaring
[00:02:07] flaring again really adds a whole whole 'nother level of risk to the
[00:02:11] the movement of commodities throughout throughout that area. And as we,
[00:02:14] we, you know, have winter looming.
[00:02:16] looming. We're also really focusing
[00:02:18] focusing on how much LNG is getting getting out of the Gulf as well.
[00:02:22] well. You know, they produce about
[00:02:26] about 30% of fertiliser and moving
[00:02:29] moving LNG through that area. And And as we get into these colder months,
[00:02:32] months, we're going to really start
[00:02:34] start seeing, I fear, a price increase,
[00:02:37] increase, probably a quite shocking shocking increase. And then we're
[00:02:40] we're going to have another one come come next spring when farmers start
[00:02:44] start to buy fertiliser and LNG as
[00:02:47] as well. And this is just it's becoming becoming a vicious cycle until we
[00:02:50] we can get all of this cleared up.
[00:02:53] up. There's several avenues that that are going to be really affected
[00:02:57] affected by this, especially coming
[00:02:58] coming into the winter season. Now
[00:03:01] Now to us academics Robert E Hall Hall and Michael Woodford have been
[00:03:05] been awarded this year's Nobel Prize Prize for economics. The pair received
[00:03:08] received the prestigious award for
[00:03:10] for their development of new macroeconomic macroeconomic models, which are used
[00:03:14] used by central banks and governments governments around the world along
[00:03:18] along with the title Nobel Laureate.
[00:03:20] Laureate. Each winner receives $1.2
[00:03:24] $1.2 million. Well, my colleague colleague Michelle Fleury saw her
[00:03:27] her earlier. She's back on the show
[00:03:30] show and Michelle, the pair won the the prize for the work that they've
[00:03:34] they've been doing in helping to to take instability out of the financial
[00:03:37] financial world. But what's actually actually new or rather what have
[00:03:41] have they tweaked? Yeah, I mean,
[00:03:43] mean, so first of all, I think they
[00:03:45] they have to share the 1.2 million.
[00:03:48] million. Still not bad but but they they do have to share to share that
[00:03:52] that prize money. I mean this goes
[00:03:54] goes back to economic theory for
[00:03:57] for years everyone relied on, on on kind of Keynesian theory. And
[00:04:00] And it was this idea that you would would persuade policymakers that
[00:04:03] that sometimes you need to stimulate
[00:04:07] stimulate demand and other times times you need to try and slow down
[00:04:11] down growth by raising rates. But
[00:04:14] But what has happened is that their
[00:04:16] their research has kind of helped,
[00:04:19] helped, if you like, address some
[00:04:21] some of the volatility that we've we've seen, some of the kind of how
[00:04:25] how to smooth out some of the ups
[00:04:27] ups and downs that are associated associated with the economic cycle
[00:04:30] cycle and to kind of fine tune some
[00:04:33] some of that Keynesian philosophy. philosophy. And so on the one hand,
[00:04:35] hand, you've got Robert Hall, his
[00:04:37] his work focused on demand and on on households. In other words, how
[00:04:41] how are they decide to make purchasing purchasing decisions? Some of that
[00:04:45] that has to do with the money they they have in their pocket, but some
[00:04:48] some of it has to do with what they they think they will make in the
[00:04:51] the future. In terms of income. Michael
[00:04:54] Michael Woodford, on the other hand, hand, from Columbia University, he
[00:04:56] he was focused on the supply side. side. So for example, how businesses
[00:05:00] businesses might set their prices prices for goods. And historically, historically, if you look at businesses,
[00:05:04] businesses, they try and kind of of plan months and months ahead when
[00:05:07] when they're making an item ordering, ordering, you know, all the inputs
[00:05:10] inputs and all of that. And so they they set prices that they think will
[00:05:13] will cover their costs. Now you look look at where we are right now today,
[00:05:16] today, for example, with all of these these supply shocks and some of that
[00:05:19] that kind of planning has been thrown
[00:05:21] thrown out the window. But it was
[00:05:24] was this idea that they came up with with that you should look ahead and
[00:05:28] and therefore policy makers should should communicate clearly their
[00:05:31] their plans in advance. And now we're
[00:05:33] we're kind of seeing a bit of a sort
[00:05:36] sort of shift away from that in terms terms of if you look at the central
[00:05:39] central bank here in the United States, States, we've got Kevin Warsh, who's
[00:05:42] who's the governor there, and he he says, actually he doesn't want want to communicate plans early.
[00:05:46] early. He wants to kind of refer
[00:05:50] refer revert back to an earlier system system where actually you kind of
[00:05:52] of keep your cards pretty close to to your chest. So interesting timing
[00:05:56] timing here from the Nobel Prize. Prize. Yeah. Very quickly, I mean,
[00:05:58] mean, gone back to the 1970s to today.
[00:06:01] today. But Michelle, very quickly, quickly, I mean, compared to the
[00:06:04] the data they had in the 1970s, the
[00:06:07] the data they have now, I mean, they're they're spoilt for choice. These
[00:06:10] These are vast data sets. They are
[00:06:13] are vast data sets. And obviously
[00:06:16] obviously some of that is then what
[00:06:18] what do you do with it. And so it's
[00:06:21] it's this kind of research that helps helps you sort of refine up to a
[00:06:24] a point. But as we've seen with geopolitical geopolitical shocks, even the best
[00:06:28] best laid plans, even all of that
[00:06:30] that data can kind of get sort of
[00:06:32] of thrown into disarray by, by sort
[00:06:35] sort of events, as they say, events. events. Indeed, indeed, lots of events.
[00:06:39] events. Michelle, thank you very very much indeed. That's all we can
[00:06:42] can say these days. Events. OK, well,
[00:06:45] well, let's go to events in Thailand Thailand because global finance chiefs
[00:06:48] chiefs are gathering for another another event. It is the International
[00:06:52] International Monetary Fund and World World Bank annual meetings that are
[00:06:54] are taking place. And while soaring
[00:06:57] soaring energy prices pile the pressure pressure on economies all around
[00:07:01] around the world, AI investment has
[00:07:02] has been labelled as a slow moving
[00:07:05] moving tsunami, impacting around around 40% of jobs worldwide and
[00:07:09] and also a key driver to rising inflation.
[00:07:11] inflation. If we look at US price
[00:07:14] price gauges so far this year, we've
[00:07:16] we've seen software and accessories
[00:07:19] accessories really drive a predominant predominant force in those inflationary
[00:07:23] inflationary pressures because we we are seeing very tight supply demand
[00:07:26] demand dynamics. There's this robust
[00:07:28] robust demand for AI, but we just just are not seeing supply being
[00:07:31] being able to keep up with that. that. And that's coming through in
[00:07:35] in prices. We think about semiconductors semiconductors compute in particular.
[00:07:39] particular. So even though AI in
[00:07:41] in the long run is likely to be disinflationary, disinflationary, I think we're seeing
[00:07:44] seeing that add to this broader inflationary
[00:07:47] inflationary mix. So that's one factor factor that that we are going to
[00:07:50] to see. You know governments focus
[00:07:52] focus on. But as well there's also
[00:07:55] also concerns around regulation, regulation, around the growth impact
[00:07:58] impact of AI. So a number of factors
[00:08:00] factors I think to keep to keep certainly certainly members busy this week.
[00:08:03] week. OK. We're going to stay with
[00:08:06] with AI and the President of Microsoft
[00:08:07] Microsoft has told the BBC that work
[00:08:10] work on AI regulation needs to start start immediately. He was speaking
[00:08:14] speaking on the BBC's Big Boss Interview
[00:08:16] Interview podcast, saying that the
[00:08:18] the current system just is not working.
[00:08:21] working. We should always worry that
[00:08:23] that regulation can become too heavy-handed.
[00:08:26] heavy-handed. It can slow innovation innovation and I think President
[00:08:28] President Trump is right to remind
[00:08:31] remind us to think about even worry
[00:08:33] worry about those concerns. But right
[00:08:35] right now I'd argue that AI is moving
[00:08:38] moving forward faster than the speed speed of safety. That's not good
[00:08:42] good for the protection of the public. public. It's not even good for the
[00:08:46] the industry itself. And usually usually what happens and you take
[00:08:49] take I'll just say our Congress in in the United States, if a product
[00:08:53] product moves faster than the speed
[00:08:54] speed of safety accidents happen
[00:08:57] happen and then Congress moves faster faster than the speed of thought.
[00:09:00] thought. And then you just end up up with a dynamic where everything
[00:09:04] everything comes to a halt. I don't don't think that should be our goal
[00:09:07] goal either. AI is an extraordinary extraordinary resource to grow the
[00:09:11] the economy, to solve societal problems, problems, or at least help. Let's
[00:09:14] Let's strike the right balance. OK?
[00:09:17] OK? Beauty is more than skin deep
[00:09:19] deep because new research from the
[00:09:22] the British Beauty Week and Oxford Oxford Economics has shown us that
[00:09:25] that the sector actually contributes
[00:09:29] contributes £28.3 billion to the
[00:09:30] the UK economy, and it supports nearly
[00:09:34] nearly 600,000 jobs. Boosting confidence confidence encourages social connection
[00:09:37] connection and also helping to bring
[00:09:39] bring customers and spending to local local high streets. Well, Millie
[00:09:43] Millie Kendall is CEO of the British British Beauty Council and Millie,
[00:09:46] Millie, you joined us now. Thank Thank you very much for your time.
[00:09:49] time. Thank you. So all those benefits benefits then what do you want of
[00:09:53] of the government for your sector? sector? I mean, I think recognition
[00:09:57] recognition of an industry that contributes contributes almost £30 billion to
[00:10:01] to the economy is vital. And that's that's more than aerospace. But I
[00:10:05] I think that people sort of take take for granted that the beauty
[00:10:08] beauty industry is just fluffy stuff stuff that girls play with. I mean,
[00:10:11] mean, essentially it's an economic economic driver. We employ almost
[00:10:15] almost like you said, 600,000 people
[00:10:17] people up and down the country. Its
[00:10:20] Its beauty is available in every
[00:10:23] every postcode, pretty much everybody everybody gets up every morning, morning, has a shower, brushes their
[00:10:26] their teeth and leaves the house
[00:10:28] house looking and feeling good. OK.
[00:10:31] OK. Is it beauty? Is it well-being
[00:10:33] well-being or is it a luxury? Oh,
[00:10:35] Oh, no. It's definitely I mean, actually
[00:10:38] actually in the report that we did did with Oxford Economics, The Impact
[00:10:41] Impact of Beauty report, only 7%
[00:10:44] 7% of the respondents and this was was a nationwide survey by YouGov
[00:10:48] YouGov actually thought that beauty
[00:10:50] beauty was a luxury. Only 7% thought
[00:10:52] thought it was a luxury. That's of
[00:10:54] of 93% the population know that it's
[00:10:56] it's an everyday essential. Why is is it essential? Millie, let's go
[00:11:00] go straight to why? Because this this jumped out at me when I looked
[00:11:04] looked at your data. I instantly
[00:11:06] instantly thought loneliness, the the loneliness. Is really important.
[00:11:09] important. I mean, 86% of the respondents
[00:11:13] respondents go to the high street street predominantly because they they have booked a hair and beauty
[00:11:17] beauty appointment. That's really
[00:11:19] really important. 42% of young men,
[00:11:22] men, when they go to visit a service service provider, that's a hair or
[00:11:26] or beauty service provider, they they are going there because that
[00:11:29] that might be the only conversation conversation they've had in a week.
[00:11:33] week. It's really important for us
[00:11:35] us to be recognised for the community community and you know, we're anchors
[00:11:39] anchors of the high street. OK. It's It's interesting, isn't it? It's
[00:11:42] It's maybe something that AI can't
[00:11:45] can't touch in its current form in in terms of those social connections.
[00:11:49] connections. So where does the so so where does the beauty industry
[00:11:51] industry then sit when it comes to
[00:11:54] to reviving the high street? Because
[00:11:56] Because in terms of profitability profitability that supply chain,
[00:11:59] chain, you know, a lot of these products products are actually made in Asia.
[00:12:02] Asia. Millie. Well, there's a lot lot of products made in Europe as
[00:12:05] as well. So there's a lot of products products made all over the world.
[00:12:09] world. Essentially the hair and beauty beauty salons are part of our supply
[00:12:12] supply chain. They need a lot of of help because obviously they are
[00:12:15] are footing the bill for the space space that they rent for the rates
[00:12:19] rates and all the additional taxes taxes were a labour intensive industry.
[00:12:22] industry. That's very important to to understand. You know, you as you
[00:12:26] you said, you know, AI is not going going to replace your hairdresser. hairdresser. So we need to be able
[00:12:30] able to employ people and we need need to be able to afford to employ
[00:12:32] employ them. So I think that's really
[00:12:35] really critical. And we do make products
[00:12:38] products here in the UK that we sell sell locally, but products are made
[00:12:42] made all over the world. OK. And And yeah, yeah. Sorry. Millie Kendall
[00:12:46] Kendall thank you very much indeed. indeed. Thank you. Yeah. We all love
[00:12:50] love a natter don't we? At the hairdressers.
[00:12:52] hairdressers. Well do stay with us us here on BBC News because plenty
[00:12:55] plenty more coming up shortly. Ben
[00:12:58] Ben is standing by. MUSIC
[00:14:19] how social media has shaped the story. story. It's all on The Media Show
[00:14:23] Show on BBC News. MUSIC
[00:14:37] Being able to inspire someone
[00:14:39] is always the greatest joy. I saw
[00:14:42] saw Souza one time at the Grammys Grammys and she said that she studied studied some of my songs for their
[00:14:46] their songwriting and I thought that that that was the biggest compliment
[00:14:48] compliment ever. My support for Ukraine
[00:14:52] Ukraine is unwavering. It is 100%
[00:14:55] 100% when the big names talk, they
[00:14:57] they talk to us.
[00:15:09] Hello there, I'm Ben Brown and
[00:15:11] you're watching BBC News and a BBC BBC investigation has revealed that
[00:15:15] that the world's biggest accountancy accountancy firm helped falsify documents
[00:15:19] documents that allowed the former former Chelsea Football Club owner
[00:15:23] owner Roman Abramovich to hide his
[00:15:30] Wealth and to evade tax. BBC Panorama has uncovered hundreds of of documents that were backdated backdated by the Russian billionaires
[00:15:34] billionaires advisers. Many were were drawn up with the help of Deloitte,
[00:15:37] Deloitte, while Roman Abramovich Abramovich denies any wrongdoing.
[00:15:40] wrongdoing. Deloitte says it complied
[00:15:42] complied with applicable laws. Richard.
[00:15:46] Richard. Things have changed for for Roman Abramovich. He has been
[00:15:50] been sanctioned because of his links links to Vladimir Putin. He's been
[00:15:53] been forced to sell his beloved Chelsea
[00:15:57] Chelsea and now revelations from from inside his financial empire. empire. If