BBCNEWS — The Context USA
20261012 193000 UTC
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[00:00:00] That's cool. But guess who is going going to the Russians? And if the the Russians are learning those lessons,
[00:00:04] lessons, so are the North Koreans. Koreans. So are the Iranians. So
[00:00:07] So are the Chinese. So the idea of of being dislocated from the threat
[00:00:10] threat that America feels. I was was in Australia last week. There's
[00:00:12] There's so dislocated from the threat. threat. But they recognise that that
[00:00:16] that proliferation of the learning learning and we've seen it. We've We've seen the shards be passed from
[00:00:20] from Iran to Russia be improved, improved, to be sent back to Iran.
[00:00:22] Iran. And they saw them in epic fury. fury. That threat is prevalent everywhere,
[00:00:26] everywhere, and they're sharing everything. everything. So I think, yes, you
[00:00:30] you know, we're not going to fight fight the way Ukraine. I hope we
[00:00:33] we never have to fight the way Ukraine Ukraine has because they're fighting
[00:00:37] fighting for their survival. And And we've not done that for a generation,
[00:00:40] generation, for a number of generations, generations, just on, on, on that
[00:00:43] that evolution of the war economy economy in both Ukraine. And Russia.
[00:00:45] Russia. We have a question here from from MTV who says would you agree,
[00:00:49] agree, Fiona, that Russia's war economy economy is only just beginning to
[00:00:53] to ramp up and Ukraine could ultimately
[00:00:55] ultimately be a warm-up routine for
[00:00:57] for Putin? Well, look, Putin is the the kind of person who learns from from every experience and that's
[00:01:01] that's something that we should never never discount. I think we've seen
[00:01:03] seen this all the way along. Boris Boris is able to keep one step ahead
[00:01:07] ahead and then, you know, Putin is is pushing people to, you know, be
[00:01:11] be right behind. And there's you you constantly having to just have have this whole level of innovation.
[00:01:15] innovation. But Putin's already there. there. This is not just necessarily
[00:01:17] necessarily a warm-up here. And I I think what Stu has just put his
[00:01:20] his finger on is the important thing thing to remember. And this is where where the United States has actually
[00:01:24] actually got into trouble. You know, know, we're not talking enough about about what has actually happened
[00:01:28] happened to us. Logistics and supply supply bases in the Persian Gulf.
[00:01:31] Gulf. You know, why did the USS Abraham Abraham Lincoln have to be at sea
[00:01:34] sea for so long? Because the Iranians
[00:01:37] Iranians actually destroyed the facilities facilities in Bahrain for logistics
[00:01:41] logistics and supply. We've got the the Houthis now in Yemen. We've just
[00:01:44] just had these attacks on the Riyadh Riyadh airport. These are all the
[00:01:47] the kinds of things that we're going going to continue to see. We're not
[00:01:50] not going to be so much at a distance.
[00:01:51] distance. And Putin is in many respects
[00:01:55] respects unleashed a whole way of of thinking about warfare now where
[00:01:58] where many others can ramp up as as well. And I would actually argue argue that this will come back to
[00:02:01] to bite him because Mr Putin is not
[00:02:04] not necessarily popular around the the world. And at some point this
[00:02:07] this will become a big problem for for him and for Russia as well. So So so all of that, I couldn't agree
[00:02:11] agree more. The important thing is is if it works in Ukraine, it works.
[00:02:15] works. You've got the most horrific horrific electromagnetic spectrum
[00:02:18] spectrum where you're trying to operate
[00:02:21] operate remote controlled capabilities capabilities and the innovation cycle,
[00:02:23] cycle, the cat and mouse game of of drone counter-drone Ux's counter
[00:02:27] counter UX is so important there. there. If it works there, it's going
[00:02:31] going to work. If it doesn't work work there, it's snake oil. Boris,
[00:02:34] Boris, I've got a what I think is
[00:02:36] is a really good question for you.
[00:02:39] you. It's from a someone on YouTube YouTube who goes by anonymous Fortnite
[00:02:43] Fortnite player. I'm too old to know know what Fortnite is, but hopefully
[00:02:46] hopefully Boris you will. The question question is what will be more important
[00:02:50] important in warfare trenches, classic
[00:02:52] classic infantry or drones or I AI?
[00:02:55] AI? Think I probably know the answer
[00:02:57] answer to this, but. Honestly, it's
[00:02:59] it's very hard to say what is going
[00:03:01] going to happen very soon. But it's
[00:03:04] it's probably drone plus AI combination
[00:03:06] combination plus the AI, which is is more like unpredictable because
[00:03:09] because even if I have a detection
[00:03:11] detection of a drone, which we're
[00:03:14] we're doing, you can now we're even even focused on saving the robot
[00:03:18] robot rather than human time to time time because mostly robots on the
[00:03:21] the battlefield. And for me, I need
[00:03:22] need to detect the FPV. So the better
[00:03:25] better I do this, the more robots
[00:03:27] robots safe, the more people save. save. And if the technology like
[00:03:31] like AI is easy to deceive, make
[00:03:34] make the FPV drone look with a rectangle
[00:03:37] rectangle or pink I don't know and
[00:03:39] and I will not recognise it. Then Then it's not gonna work for long.
[00:03:43] long. So as I said before, the Russia
[00:03:46] Russia and Putin it's same human human beings. They're smart, they
[00:03:50] they have intelligence, they catch catch up with anything we build.
[00:03:53] build. So we have usually 1 to 3 3 months of a window and then again
[00:03:56] again and again you need to constantly constantly innovate because they they do the same that we. Are that
[00:03:59] that we were talking about. Yeah. Yeah. So we need human intelligence
[00:04:03] intelligence in this case. Any more more questions in the room? Yes, Yes, sir. At the back. Can we get
[00:04:07] get a microphone to this gentleman gentleman here? Could you stand up up for us and just give us your name?
[00:04:11] name? Then we can see you. Thank
[00:04:12] Thank you so much. Stefan UkraineAlert
[00:04:17] UkraineAlert Mike, you mentioned
[00:04:18] mentioned earlier on about the importance
[00:04:21] importance of intelligence with the
[00:04:24] the latest argument going on between,
[00:04:27] between, you know, with Trump having having a go at Ukraine. The latest
[00:04:31] latest argument with Trump having having a go at Ukraine and having having a go at Zelensky about this
[00:04:34] this diesel deal, etc. My concern
[00:04:38] concern is what are the chances of
[00:04:40] of Musk wading in and cutting Starlink
[00:04:46] Starlink and where is Europe in terms
[00:04:47] terms of being able to replace Starlink
[00:04:50] Starlink capabilities? Because Ukraine Ukraine relies on that quite a lot
[00:04:53] lot at the moment. That's a good good one because Ukraine right now,
[00:04:57] now, as we know, is heavily reliant.
[00:04:59] reliant. Fiona on Starlink if the the Americans were to pull intelligence
[00:05:02] intelligence and Elon Musk was to to pull that capability, what might
[00:05:05] might that mean? Well, look, I'm I'm going to defer also to Stew and
[00:05:08] and Boris on this one, but let's let's just think for a moment. There
[00:05:12] There is a lot of trust being lost lost in the United States at this this moment. It's not just Ukraine
[00:05:15] Ukraine that relies on Starlink. Starlink. I flew over here on United
[00:05:18] United Airlines that relies on Starlink. Starlink. I mean, there'll be a lot
[00:05:21] lot of people wondering when it is is that the United States is going going to use that Musk is going to
[00:05:25] to use that as leverage for other other purposes. There is a major
[00:05:27] major European country at the moment moment that is de-risking from American
[00:05:31] American platforms. Stew and a few few others will know which one that
[00:05:34] that is, and it's a pretty significant significant one because they're extraordinarily
[00:05:37] extraordinarily worried about the the fact that the United States might
[00:05:39] might just kill some of their own
[00:05:41] own systems. So if you're in a US US tech and you're purchasing US
[00:05:45] US tech, whether it be in the UK UK military or any other military,
[00:05:47] military, you'll start to wonder wonder when will that be leveraged?
[00:05:50] leveraged? Because Mr Musk himself himself is not very reliable either. either. He's playing politics all
[00:05:54] all the time. He's in he's interfering interfering in British politics.
[00:05:57] politics. And people are starting starting to wonder whether American
[00:06:00] American tech in some instances not not across the board, comes with
[00:06:03] with too much political baggage. baggage. And so if you are using
[00:06:06] using Ukraine as an example, what what if you're in a spot with another
[00:06:09] another country? How does that work? work? Stew, in terms of the capability
[00:06:12] capability you're trying to build build on behalf of Ukraine, do you
[00:06:15] you start to think maybe I shouldn't shouldn't actually be drawing up
[00:06:18] up contracts with the United States? States? No, because there are some
[00:06:22] some capabilities that only the United United States can produce. And there there are some capabilities that
[00:06:26] that Ukraine needs that only the the US can produce. And that's where
[00:06:28] where you've got the Purl. What I I would say though, is if, God forbid,
[00:06:32] forbid, that connection Starlink Starlink was dropped, the one thing
[00:06:34] thing you can rely on is the resilience resilience and ingenuity of the Ukrainians
[00:06:38] Ukrainians to find a way around it. it. Exactly. And actually that's
[00:06:41] that's a really critical thing we're we're learning. It's the behaviours.
[00:06:44] behaviours. It's not poor me. I must must have this. It's OK. What next?
[00:06:48] next? I think adding to the problem
[00:06:50] problem as well is you've got Russia
[00:06:52] Russia who are now trying to develop
[00:06:55] develop their own version of Starlink, Starlink, and they've already put
[00:06:59] put many, many satellites in low low earth orbit, but they're having
[00:07:03] having problems. Some are burning burning up, but you need a constant constant daisy chain of coverage
[00:07:06] coverage in order to make that satellite
[00:07:08] satellite system work. So if it's it's Russia, it's probably not a
[00:07:11] a case of if, but when. Now before before we finish, we do have another
[00:07:15] another special guest with us tonight. tonight. He is sitting in our audience,
[00:07:19] audience, someone who until just just a few months ago was flying
[00:07:23] flying typhoons for the RAF. Ladies Ladies and gentlemen, Squadron Leader
[00:07:26] Leader Zenit, please come and join
[00:07:27] join us. Zaid on stage. We're going
[00:07:36] going to change. We're going to change change around the seating and bring
[00:07:38] bring you close in. Zain. Mikey, Mikey, this is a good mate of yours
[00:07:42] yours so maybe you could give us us all his secrets. I can't wait
[00:07:45] wait to introduce Zain. I'm not going going to give all his secrets away. away. Especially not the ones in
[00:07:48] in the bar. Zaim is a long time friend. friend. It's great to see you here,
[00:07:51] here, Zain. He flew with the Red Red arrows. So for years he didn't
[00:07:55] didn't actually answer to Zain. He
[00:07:56] He only answered to Red nine. There
[00:08:01] There he is on screen. That's Zain Zain getting airborne from Iceland
[00:08:04] Iceland in a typhoon jet on quick
[00:08:06] quick reaction alert. Hey fam affirm
[00:08:08] affirm love it. He's got 5000 hours hours flying fast jet much of that
[00:08:11] that in the air defence role although although you did fly Harrier jump
[00:08:13] jump jet in the ground attack role
[00:08:15] role and he has a spell as a squadron squadron commander in the Falkland
[00:08:19] Falkland Islands. Zain first question
[00:08:21] question we've seen how Ukraine tackles tackles the one way attack drones.
[00:08:25] drones. The UK's one of the UK responses
[00:08:27] responses to that threat employed employed especially during the Iran
[00:08:30] Iran war, is what is called drone
[00:08:33] drone combat air patrol or drone
[00:08:35] drone cap. So you're in the jet.
[00:08:38] jet. I want to take the audience audience through and you locate the
[00:08:42] the drone. How do you identify it? it? And then how do you manoeuver
[00:08:45] manoeuver the aeroplane to take it it out? Well, thanks very much for
[00:08:47] for having me here. And it's all
[00:08:50] all about detection. Detection is is everything. If you can't detect
[00:08:54] detect the target, you can't influence, influence, you can't do anything anything about it. You can't ultimately
[00:08:57] ultimately destroy it. If it's a
[00:08:58] a threat. So it's all about using
[00:09:01] using the asset. And in my arena arena that's a fighter with a radar
[00:09:05] radar and putting it in the most, most, the best place to be most effective
[00:09:08] effective in what it needs to do.
[00:09:10] do. But you've also got to understand understand what are you defending?
[00:09:14] defending? What's the defended asset asset that might be something fixed fixed on the ground stationary, or
[00:09:18] or it might be in the case of an an aircraft carrier, a moving platform.
[00:09:21] platform. So you have to move your
[00:09:24] your your position defending that. that. Once you know that you can
[00:09:27] can work out where's the threat, threat, where's it coming from? And
[00:09:30] And very simply then that means it
[00:09:32] it gives you a threat axis and and
[00:09:35] and what you do in terms of a fighter
[00:09:37] fighter is place that that defence
[00:09:40] defence up threat between the threat threat you've got you're defending.
[00:09:43] defending. You've got a pod haven't haven't you talk talk me through through using I think it's called
[00:09:47] called the lightning port. Talk me me through using that to actually
[00:09:50] actually get a positive ID on it. it. Because what we have to be very
[00:09:53] very careful on here is the rules rules of engagement, which will follow
[00:09:56] follow on from getting an absolutely absolutely and this is the key unambiguous unambiguous identification that it's
[00:09:59] it's an enemy drone. You don't want want it. There's a lot of confusion
[00:10:03] confusion out there. So you want want to be absolutely unambiguous. unambiguous. If you're engaging a
[00:10:06] a target that is an enemy target target that the airspace is so complicated,
[00:10:09] complicated, you can't be absolutely absolutely sure that what you're you're seeing on your radar is the
[00:10:13] the drone. Absolutely. There are are areas where we are searching
[00:10:16] searching for slow moving small targets
[00:10:18] targets low to the low to the surface.
[00:10:20] surface. Boats are also slow moving
[00:10:23] moving small objects close to the the surface. So absolutely you have
[00:10:26] have to be very, very robust. So
[00:10:30] So if the onus is on getting a visual visual ID now we can obviously do
[00:10:33] do that out the cockpit with our our own eyes, but we can use electro
[00:10:37] electro optical means a targeting targeting pod to do
[00:10:44] Pod to do that at range. And the fidelity of the pulse, the modern modern pods nowadays are so good
[00:10:47] good that we can do that at range. range. And the earlier that we can can get a positive identification
[00:10:51] identification and clarify firstly firstly that it's not a friendly
[00:10:54] friendly asset and we can do other other mitigations to make sure that that we're not targeting that. And
[00:10:58] And we saw three F-15s shot down down by a Kuwaiti F-18 during the the Persian Gulf. That's critical
[00:11:02] critical indeed. Yeah. So you've you've got to confirm that it's not not friendly. Is that because they're
[00:11:05] they're going down as well to intercept.
[00:11:07] intercept. Well it's the nature of
[00:11:09] of a drone threat is that well apart apart from the later versions we're
[00:11:13] we're seeing of the Garan type drone drone is that they are slow moving.
[00:11:17] moving. Just that is we've got a a video of a MiG haven't we trying trying to take out a drone which
[00:11:21] which does I think just speak to to just how dangerous. But before
[00:11:24] before we go to that, the contrast contrast is is because British Aerospace
[00:11:28] Aerospace systems have developed developed a laser guided rocket system
[00:11:31] system called Advanced Precision Precision Kill Weapon system. I won't won't say the acronym because it's
[00:11:34] it's too long, which sort of gives gives you a slight advantage, but but to the point you make. Let's
[00:11:38] Let's just take a look at this footage footage because I'm absolutely curious
[00:11:42] curious to get your view on this.
[00:11:44] this. So what we'll see here is this
[00:11:46] this is a Ukrainian MiG 29 and it's it's utilising a grand drone, but
[00:11:50] but it's using a cannon a gun. It's
[00:11:52] It's not using this laser targeting targeting rocket system that you've
[00:11:55] you've got. So talk me through the
[00:11:58] the advantages of that advanced precision precision kill weapon system, the
[00:12:01] the challenges versus the challenges challenges and the risks of using using the cannon, using the cannon
[00:12:05] cannon in terms of how close it needs needs to get and the fuselage and and everything. Well, there's three
[00:12:08] three things that. I sort of want want to take out of this engagement
[00:12:11] engagement here. The first one is
[00:12:14] is kudos to the pilot who's operating operating their air to air gunnery.
[00:12:17] gunnery. I did it in the Royal Australian Australian Air Force. Flying the
[00:12:20] the Hornet is difficult. So that's that's exceptional skill to get into
[00:12:23] into that position and do a successful successful engagement with the cannon.
[00:12:26] cannon. The second thing I want to to take away from that, in my point
[00:12:30] point of view, is you can see there there that a projectile coming out
[00:12:33] out from the cannon call it a bullet,
[00:12:34] bullet, whatever you want. It's a
[00:12:37] a simple piece of kit. It's unable
[00:12:39] unable to be jammed by radar. You
[00:12:42] You can't flare off a cannon projectile. projectile. So if that thing is going
[00:12:46] going in the right direction, it it hits the target. It's likely going
[00:12:48] going to destroy it. The third element element I want to take on that is
[00:12:52] is the level of risk. You can see see towards the end of that, that
[00:12:56] that clip that the MiG pilot does does quite an evasive manoeuver because
[00:12:59] because what has happened there if if you that that target has blown
[00:13:02] blown up, that's creating an awful awful lot of frag hundreds, thousands
[00:13:05] thousands of bits of metal there
[00:13:07] there in the sky. If one of those those just one of those gets it fits
[00:13:10] fits the aircraft that's potentially potentially going to take that down.
[00:13:12] down. So the level of risk in engaging engaging in that way is, is quite
[00:13:16] quite high. You flew QRA Quick reaction
[00:13:20] reaction alert to the Russian strategic strategic bombers that were coming coming over towards Nato airspace
[00:13:24] airspace from Coningsby, I think, think, and from and Lossiemouth.
[00:13:28] Lossiemouth. Here's some footage footage of what that looks like. like. And I want to know from you
[00:13:31] you in this climate, in this climate climate of confrontation that we're
[00:13:34] we're in now, how do you position
[00:13:36] position that aircraft in the best
[00:13:38] best possible place to ensure we
[00:13:41] we don't have a crisis? Absolutely. Absolutely. The first thing and what's
[00:13:45] what's great about the typhoon holding holding the quick reaction alert
[00:13:47] alert is it's an interceptor, it's it's quick. We can engage full reheat
[00:13:51] reheat which afterburner in American American speak and we're supersonic
[00:13:55] supersonic after seconds. Phew. Because Because this is the most important important thing about an intercept
[00:13:58] intercept and quick reaction alert. alert. The clue is in the title.
[00:14:01] title. You want to get into a position
[00:14:04] position where we can control the the situation and that is best done
[00:14:07] done again, and I've mentioned it
[00:14:08] it visually. So if the SRA is launched
[00:14:12] launched after first detection, early early warning radars, you want to
[00:14:15] to get the typhoon on an intercept intercept course, pick it up on its
[00:14:18] its own radar and get to a position
[00:14:19] position to then control the intercept. intercept. We are going to have to
[00:14:23] to leave it there. We are out of
[00:14:25] of time on television. Read nine.
[00:14:29] nine. Retired Squadron Leader Zane Zane Sennett. He's going to be in in the bar after. So if you want
[00:14:33] want to talk to him, he goes by the
[00:14:35] the code name Blue Nun. Anyway. He
[00:14:39] He doesn't he? Pilot of normal. Height.
[00:14:41] Height. That is all we do have time time for on television. Thank you
[00:14:44] you to our panel. Thank you to Zane Zane Sennett. Thank you to Doctor Doctor Fiona Hill. Thank you to Stu
[00:14:48] Stu Nasse. And thank you Boris for for coming all this way to see us
[00:14:52] us here in London. Do keep keep safe
[00:14:54] safe over there in Kyiv. We hope
[00:14:56] hope this has been only the first first of our security brief live
[00:15:00] live audiences. We'll try and do
[00:15:02] do this again some more. Thank you
[00:15:04] you for watching. Have a very good
[00:15:08] good night.
[00:16:10] inflation. What will it all mean mean for Europe's economy? That's That's this week on Talking Business
[00:16:14] Business here on BBC News. Hello
[00:16:26] Hello and welcome to the context. context. I'm Martine Croxall in London.
[00:16:29] London. We're focusing on Ukraine Ukraine and hopefully if we've got
[00:16:31] got time, we'll get to Saudi Arabia Arabia as well because America's
[00:16:35] America's response to these two very very different conflicts is fascinating.
[00:16:38] fascinating. Joining us tonight, tonight, editor in chief of The Daily
[00:16:40] Daily Caller, Amber Duke and former former Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy.
[00:16:44] Murphy. Thank you both for being being so patient waiting for us. us. Now, President Trump says Russia
[00:16:48] Russia and Ukraine have agreed to to stop attacking each other's energy energy supplies. But the message
[00:16:52] message from Moscow appears to be be very different. They say Kyiv
[00:16:54] Kyiv doesn't deserve the respite respite that a ceasefire would offer,
[00:16:58] offer, and their strikes continue continue to rain down. President
[00:17:01] President Zelensky says Ukraine would would back an energy ceasefire and
[00:17:04] and that it could help end the war, war, but only if Russia takes part
[00:17:07] part too, of course. Well, meanwhile, meanwhile, the divisions between
[00:17:10] between Europe and Washington over over Russia are on clear display,
[00:17:13] display, with both taking sharply sharply different paths. EU leaders
[00:17:16] leaders are increasing the pressure
[00:17:18] pressure they've imposed nearly 1600
[00:17:20] 1600 new sanctions listings targeting targeting Russia's military industries.
[00:17:23] industries. By contrast, President President Trump has made a deal to
[00:17:26] to lower fuel prices by buying Russian
[00:17:29] Russian diesel. Well, the Ukrainian Ukrainian leader said that he was was surprised by the news but still
[00:17:32] still welcomed the idea of an energy
[00:17:34] energy ceasefire. If Russia wants
[00:17:37] wants us to stop our long range strikes
[00:17:41] strikes against its oil refineries
[00:17:43] refineries and oil exports, then
[00:17:46] then Russia must stop its strikes
[00:17:49] strikes against our energy system
[00:17:52] system and critical infrastructure
[00:17:55] infrastructure and stop killing our
[00:17:57] our people. This is all effect. By
[00:18:01] By contrast, Russia's foreign minister minister appeared to dismiss the
[00:18:04] the idea of a ceasefire, suggesting suggesting that Europe would use
[00:18:07] use it to rearm Ukraine. I do not
[00:18:11] not believe Zelensky has earned a a respite, nor do I think we will
[00:18:15] will fall for assurances and promises.
[00:18:18] promises. President Putin has stated stated this clearly. We continue
[00:18:21] continue to achieve the objectives objectives of the Special military
[00:18:24] military operation. These objectives objectives are well known to everyone
[00:18:27] everyone and have never changed. changed. Unlike the zig zags and
[00:18:30] and shifting whims of Zelensky and
[00:18:32] and his European backers. Well, several
[00:18:36] several European leaders have criticised criticised President Trump's deal
[00:18:39] deal over Russian diesel. The German German chancellor, Friedrich Merz,
[00:18:42] Merz, says there should be no easing easing of sanctions against Moscow.
[00:18:46] Moscow. For zwischen den...
[00:18:49] We take note of the agreement between the United States and Russia
[00:18:52] Russia regarding diesel exports for for Germany and for Europe. Such
[00:18:55] Such a decision is out of the question. question. Russia will only negotiate
[00:18:59] negotiate in good faith if it is is under pressure. That is why we
[00:19:03] we are maintaining our sanctions sanctions against Russia. In fact,
[00:19:06] fact, following Moscow's ruthless ruthless attacks on Ukraine's energy
[00:19:09] energy infrastructure, we must even
[00:19:11] even tighten them further. Amber
[00:19:14] Amber Duke and Stephanie Murphy are
[00:19:16] are with us. Amber, first of all
[00:19:19] all to you, how unpopular amongst
[00:19:21] amongst the Republicans is this diesel
[00:19:24] diesel deal with Russia? Well, it's
[00:19:25] it's mostly unpopular with the members members of Congress who are either
[00:19:29] either not up for re-election or or who are trying to distance themselves
[00:19:33] themselves from the President already. already. At least those are the ones
[00:19:35] ones who have mostly spoken out publicly, publicly, urging the administration
[00:19:39] administration to reverse course. course. Now, there's also the matter
[00:19:42] matter of the America First Coalition Coalition that has already been very
[00:19:46] very critical of the President's President's decision to get involved involved in a conflict with Iran.
[00:19:49] Iran. And they're pointing out that
[00:19:52] that this situation wouldn't be necessary
[00:19:55] necessary if American consumers were were not feeling the pressure of
[00:19:57] of high diesel prices, mostly caused
[00:20:00] caused by the Iranian war. And so so the President seems to be attacking
[00:20:03] attacking a symptom of his own foreign foreign policy at this point. Very.
[00:20:07] Very. I'm glad you mentioned Iran
[00:20:10] Iran because you can't talk, Stephanie,
[00:20:11] Stephanie, about oil prices without without talking about Iran, can we?
[00:20:15] we? So surely it's within the gift gift of the President to try and
[00:20:18] and turn some of this stuff around. around. But of course, the mid-terms
[00:20:21] mid-terms are looming 22 days away.
[00:20:24] away. The mid-terms are looming and
[00:20:26] and diesel prices are affecting American
[00:20:29] American farmers and American workers workers significantly. However, this
[00:20:32] this deal that the President has
[00:20:34] has negotiated with Russia isn't
[00:20:36] isn't likely to really significantly significantly make diesel prices
[00:20:40] prices any better. Right now, we're
[00:20:45] we're about 1.6 million barrels of
[00:20:46] of diesel down. And even if Russia
[00:20:49] Russia had the capability of releasing releasing all of the capacity that
[00:20:52] that they have talked about, it would
[00:20:54] would only be a three week reprieve
[00:20:57] reprieve for the global market. So So that's not going to have a significant
[00:21:00] significant impact. What impact it it will have is providing Russia
[00:21:03] Russia with billions of dollars to to continue this conflict. So in
[00:21:06] in many ways, the Trump administration administration is extending this
[00:21:10] this conflict without providing any
[00:21:11] any real relief domestically. Amber,
[00:21:15] Amber, how much do you think President
[00:21:17] President Trump still cares about about the economy because he's got
[00:21:21] got entangled now in two foreign foreign conflicts when he said it
[00:21:24] it would be America First and he he wasn't getting involved with things things abroad. Yeah, it's a great
[00:21:28] great question. The Daily Caller Caller asked the President this over
[00:21:30] over the summer, our White House
[00:21:32] House correspondent asked the President
[00:21:35] President how much Americans finances finances factor into his decisions
[00:21:38] decisions to get involved in foreign foreign entanglements. And he said
[00:21:41] said effectively that he didn't think
[00:21:42] think about it at all. The underlying
[00:21:46] underlying point is that the President
[00:21:48] President is saying that he believes
[00:21:50] believes that stopping Iran from from developing a nuclear weapon
[00:21:54] weapon is more important than worrying worrying about day to day gas or
[00:21:58] or diesel prices. But that kind of
[00:22:00] of messaging just a few months ahead ahead of the mid-terms, when affordability
[00:22:03] affordability is the number one issue
[00:22:05] issue on voters' minds, has a lot lot of Republican candidates now
[00:22:09] now saying that the war needs to to end immediately. Mike Rogers in
[00:22:11] in Michigan, who's in a tight race race against Abdul El-Sayed Ashley
[00:22:15] Ashley Hinson in Iowa, both of them
[00:22:17] them calling for a ban on diesel diesel exports as well as an end
[00:22:21] end to the war. So there are members members of the President's party
[00:22:24] party that are actively and publicly publicly breaking with him on this
[00:22:28] this issue because his messaging messaging has not been sympathetic
[00:22:32] sympathetic to the Americans. The The average Americans pocketbook.
[00:22:35] pocketbook. We know that, Stephanie, Stephanie, there have been yet more
[00:22:39] more strikes on the Ukrainian capital capital tonight. People having to
[00:22:43] to sleep in underground bunkers, bunkers, car parks, wherever they
[00:22:46] they can feel safe. So what is this
[00:22:49] this doing to the US relationship relationship with European allies allies who, as we've heard, are taking
[00:22:53] taking a very different approach
[00:22:55] approach to supporting Ukraine and and ramping up sanctions against
[00:22:59] against Russia? I think that this
[00:23:05] this has really strained the relationship relationship that the United States
[00:23:08] States has had with Europe. Initially, Initially, when the conflict first
[00:23:11] first started, the United States States was very clear that it understood
[00:23:14] understood that Russia had attacked attacked Ukraine and that it was
[00:23:17] was standing by Ukraine. But as time
[00:23:19] time has gone on and as the administration
[00:23:22] administration has changed, that
[00:23:25] that support has waned. And I think
[00:23:26] think that that has been a to a disappointment
[00:23:30] disappointment to our European allies. allies. And in the segment before
[00:23:33] before this, you're hearing European
[00:23:36] European nations de-risking from
[00:23:38] from US technology because of the
[00:23:41] the uncertainty of the partnership partnership there. And I think that's
[00:23:44] that's really dangerous. And bad
[00:23:48] bad for the relationship transatlantic transatlantic relationship. How different
[00:23:51] different might the approach by President
[00:23:53] President Trump be though, Amber, Amber, after the mid-terms when he's
[00:23:57] he's not thinking about how to appeal
[00:23:59] appeal to voters. And that's an open open question, honestly, because
[00:24:03] because the President already has has waffled quite a bit on what his
[00:24:07] his pre-midterm strategy is. He has has talked about increasing the pressure
[00:24:11] pressure on Iran, for example, while
[00:24:14] while then the next week he'll say, say, we're not going to do any strikes strikes before the mid-terms. We
[00:24:18] We also don't expect to reach a deal
[00:24:20] deal before the mid-terms. And so so oftentimes when the President
[00:24:23] President is speaking publicly about
[00:24:25] about a range of conflicts, you almost
[00:24:27] almost can't even really be sure sure if he means what he says or
[00:24:31] or if he is trying to telegraph something
[00:24:34] something to our allies and adversaries
[00:24:37] adversaries abroad because he does does like to negotiate foreign policy
[00:24:41] policy via social media or from statements statements from the Oval Office.
[00:24:44] Office. So the comments that he makes makes to American reporters or even
[00:24:48] even to voters on the mid-term trail
[00:24:51] trail might not even be the desired
[00:24:54] desired recipient of those messages. messages. He might be actually saying saying those things for the benefit
[00:24:58] benefit of people abroad. Stephanie, Stephanie, finally, to you and briefly
[00:25:01] briefly if you would, if the Democrats Democrats do well in the mid-terms,
[00:25:05] mid-terms, what how would they use use that leverage? Just briefly.
[00:25:08] briefly. I think that the Democrats
[00:25:10] Democrats will provide significant significant oversight on the administration,
[00:25:14] administration, and you will see
[00:25:17] see further investigations into the
[00:25:20] the administration's actions as well
[00:25:24] well as providing, hopefully, more more support for Ukraine, because
[00:25:27] because I think in the past that that there has been bipartisan support
[00:25:31] support when the Congress has been been led by Democrats. So you're
[00:25:35] you're going to see some changes changes and definitely more oversight
[00:25:38] oversight on this administration. administration. Stephanie Murphy Murphy and Amber Duke, thank you.
[00:25:42] you. A little shorter than usual, usual, but we appreciate you joining
[00:25:45] joining us to share your insights
[00:25:47] insights on what's happening between between the United States, Russia
[00:25:50] Russia and Ukraine. Thank you very very much for joining us on the context. context. Just a reminder, there's
[00:25:54] there's a lot more analysis that
[00:25:55] that you'll find on the BBC News
[00:25:58] News website. You'll hear all sorts sorts of reporting, especially from
[00:26:02] from our Kyiv correspondent Dan Johnson, Johnson, who's talking about what
[00:26:07] what an energy ceasefire might mean
[00:29:57] MUSIC
[00:30:16] Hello, I'm Martine Croxall.
[00:30:17] This is the context on BBC News. News. Ukraine's President Zelensky
[00:30:21] Zelensky says Russia hit a power power plant in Ukraine immediately
[00:30:24] immediately after Donald Trump claimed claimed both sides had agreed to
[00:30:27] to an energy ceasefire. Saudi Arabia Arabia threatens what it calls a
[00:30:31] a serious response to deadly Houthi Houthi attacks on Riyadh's international
[00:30:34] international airport. Flights remain remain suspended. The BBC reports
[00:30:38] reports from inside Yemen, where where the long running civil war
[00:30:41] war is escalating. We've been told told that there are Houthi fighters
[00:30:44] fighters in position up in the mountains.
[00:30:46] mountains. About 500 of them. And And since we've been here, the forces
[00:30:50] forces are keeping an eye on the the sky just to make sure that there
[00:30:53] there are no more drones coming. coming. The UK Prime Minister, Andy Andy Burnham, says he'll push for
[00:30:57] for new post-Brexit trade deals and and that the status quo isn't good