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[00:00:03] MUSIC
[00:00:16] Hello and welcome to The
[00:00:17] Context USA, our first in a series series of special programming from
[00:00:21] from our studios here in Washington, Washington, DC I'm Sumi Somaskanda.
[00:00:24] Somaskanda. And I'm Caitriona Perry Perry ahead this hour. It's the vote
[00:00:28] vote that could drastically change change the course of politics here
[00:00:30] here in the US and maybe around the
[00:00:32] the world. We're focusing on what
[00:00:35] what else the 2026 midterm
[00:00:38] elections. I'm not thinking about about myself on this election. I'm
[00:00:41] I'm thinking about the whole community. community. We should all be together
[00:00:45] together in the community as one
[00:00:47] one and try to vote for our best
[00:00:50] best interests, which is not the the current administration. As you
[00:00:53] you know, this is the last day before before the midterm elections. The
[00:00:56] The most important midterm, I believe
[00:00:59] believe in our lifetime. We'll discuss discuss those critical midterm elections
[00:01:03] elections with our panellists in in studio tonight. Joel Rubin, who
[00:01:05] who worked in the Obama administration administration as deputy assistant
[00:01:08] assistant to the Secretary of State,
[00:01:10] State, and Angie Wong, a Miami Republican Republican Executive Committee woman.
[00:01:14] woman. Welcome to you both.
[00:01:26] Hello and welcome to The Context USA. Well, there's only one
[00:01:29] one show in town here in the US this this week. It's got me and sue me
[00:01:32] me in the studio together. And our our panel here in real life with
[00:01:35] with us because just in a few hours, hours, millions of voters will head
[00:01:38] head to the polls in the 2026 midterm midterm elections. That's right.
[00:01:42] right. This week, The Context USA USA is at the heart of the story.
[00:01:45] story. We're going to hear from our our correspondents right across the the country, and we'll analyse it
[00:01:49] it here on set with our panel of of experts, the policies and politics
[00:01:52] politics might start here in Washington, Washington, in the Capitol, but their
[00:01:55] their impacts are felt all the way way out to the furthest corners of
[00:01:59] of this country. And this election election on Tuesday will help paint paint the picture of how Americans
[00:02:03] Americans feel about their country country and those who run it. At
[00:02:06] At stake here, of course, is who who will hold the balance of power
[00:02:10] power in this building we're looking looking at here on Capitol Hill,
[00:02:12] Hill, the US Congress, all 435 seats
[00:02:15] seats in the House of Representatives Representatives are up for grabs,
[00:02:19] grabs, and 35 of the 100 Senate seats.
[00:02:23] seats. Democrats look well positioned
[00:02:24] positioned to retake the House, but
[00:02:27] but opportunities in the Senate are are grabbing plenty of attention.
[00:02:30] attention. And plenty of that will will come from who else? This man
[00:02:34] man President Trump's name is not not on the ballot, but the remaining
[00:02:37] remaining two years of his presidency presidency could be transformed by
[00:02:41] by the results of this election. election. Now we're going to be crisscrossing
[00:02:44] crisscrossing the country this hour hour because our correspondents are
[00:02:47] are all in position ahead of the the big day tomorrow. But first,
[00:02:50] first, let's get an initial thought thought from our panellists, Joel
[00:02:53] Joel Rubin and Angie Wang. We're We're normally chatting down the
[00:02:56] the line at you, so it's lovely to to have you here in person. Lots Lots to talk about. We've lots of
[00:03:00] of time. But just a first quick thought thought from both of you. How do
[00:03:03] do you think your respective parties parties are fixed ahead of tomorrow? tomorrow? Joel the Democrats yeah.
[00:03:06] yeah. Catrin Nye I think we're poised poised to take the House. I think
[00:03:10] think there's a quite likely possibility possibility of taking the Senate.
[00:03:14] Senate. I hedge a little bit because because as a Democrat, we're known
[00:03:17] known to kind of get over get overhyped
[00:03:20] overhyped and overinflate our odds. odds. But I feel like the winds are
[00:03:23] are at our backs right now. We've
[00:03:25] We've seen even in the last few days,
[00:03:28] days, a lot of momentum, significant significant turnout in early voting,
[00:03:31] voting, which does matter. That means means that on election day, when
[00:03:34] when voters are targeted to get them them out, there are less that need
[00:03:37] need to be pulled out of their homes homes to go vote, which means we
[00:03:40] we can have a more efficient operation operation on the ground. And its
[00:03:43] its turnout that's going to determine determine who wins this election. election. So momentum is in a good
[00:03:46] good place right now for Democrats. Democrats. Not to suggest you're
[00:03:49] you're pulling anyone out of their their homes, not. Physically too
[00:03:52] too much, just knocking on the door.
[00:03:54] door. Angie, what about the Republicans? Republicans? Yeah, we were feeling feeling really confident about a
[00:03:58] a week ago and then just having some some phone conversations with leadership.
[00:04:01] leadership. It looks as though the the House may be lost to Republicans.
[00:04:05] Republicans. And already President President Trump is already sounding sounding a little defeatist over
[00:04:09] over the weekend. He's saying he's he's going to be Mister Veto. He's
[00:04:11] He's reminding everyone that he can can veto anything. He's still president
[00:04:15] president for the next two years. years. So even if we lose control
[00:04:18] control of the House, we still might might have the Senate. I think that's
[00:04:21] that's still in play. One of the the things that I'm looking forward
[00:04:24] forward to seeing how the independent independent vote has changed. We
[00:04:27] We were very, very confident in Florida Florida that we were our plus everything
[00:04:30] everything and almost every single single district. But then you have
[00:04:34] have this 22 to 24% independent vote vote that could swing it really both
[00:04:37] both ways. So I think you're going going to see that in multiple states states tomorrow. OK. Great. First
[00:04:40] First thoughts there, Angie and Joel, Joel, much more to talk about with
[00:04:43] with both of you. But as we said, said, midterms are often a referendum
[00:04:47] referendum on the President. And And President Trump has been speaking speaking today. Here's what he's
[00:04:51] he's been saying in just the last
[00:04:52] last few moments. And you want to
[00:04:56] to this was the. The joints that
[00:05:01] that were here that we took out, out, they were put in there a long
[00:05:03] long time ago and we took that out
[00:05:07] out and Obama and Biden put in much
[00:05:09] much of it. But it was all very defective defective material. And that's one
[00:05:13] one of the reasons it leaked so badly.
[00:05:14] badly. So we removed all of this.
[00:05:17] this. This was put in it was not
[00:05:19] not very high quality material wouldn't
[00:05:22] wouldn't last very long. OK, Angie,
[00:05:25] Angie, I have to ask, is that the the closing message you wanted to to hear from the President? It's
[00:05:29] It's clear the President does not not want to talk about the midterms. midterms. He wants to talk about
[00:05:32] about pool construction. I would would not lead with that, especially especially when the whole entire
[00:05:36] entire world is watching your closing closing message. But he wants to
[00:05:39] to talk about construction and leaks
[00:05:42] leaks and the leaks. It's not the the right message. He should really really close with a strong closure,
[00:05:46] closure, which I've always seen him him do, and maybe he'll do it later
[00:05:49] later on. But this whole weekend weekend has been a mess. It really
[00:05:52] really he's kind of in and out of of campaigns, not campaigns, rallies,
[00:05:56] rallies, not rallies. I think the the President is really preparing preparing for November 4th, what
[00:06:00] what he's going to be doing the day
[00:06:02] day after. Joel. Yeah. Look, I mean, mean, when the President does not
[00:06:05] not want to talk about the election, election, it means he's looking at at his internal polls and realises
[00:06:09] realises it is a bad election for for him. And quite frankly, the American
[00:06:12] American people, they don't want want to hear about the President
[00:06:15] President spending money on reflecting
[00:06:17] reflecting pools or arches or ballrooms. ballrooms. And that feeds into the
[00:06:20] the narrative that Democrats have have been constructing this cycle,
[00:06:23] cycle, which is that there is a sort
[00:06:26] sort of a corruption and a distraction distraction in the White House, and
[00:06:29] and they're not focused on the issues issues that matter to the American
[00:06:32] American people, like affordability, affordability, like health care. care. And those are issues that Democrats
[00:06:35] Democrats are running on quite strongly. strongly. I do want to add also on
[00:06:38] on Angie's good point about independence
[00:06:40] independence in 2020 for Latino voters voters and young voters went towards
[00:06:44] towards President Trump and they they are flipping in this election.
[00:06:48] election. That could be very determinative determinative of who wins both chambers. chambers. OK, we're going to talk
[00:06:52] talk about all of those points because because we've got a correspondents correspondents in position across
[00:06:55] across the country. We'll be hearing hearing exactly what voters are thinking.
[00:06:58] thinking. So do stay with us for for that. Around the world and across across the
[00:08:01] in our bio data. Join me. Paul Carter Carter for tech for Japan. From east
[00:08:05] east to West on BBC News. Welcome
[00:08:13] Welcome back to The Context USA now
[00:08:15] now the cost of living is the key key issue ahead of Tuesday's vote,
[00:08:19] vote, and it's been impacted by decisions decisions taken far from America's
[00:08:22] America's shores. Indeed, for voters voters in Ohio and Iowa, the war
[00:08:25] war in Iran and Donald Trump's tariffs tariffs are hitting close to home
[00:08:28] home as they are in many other parts parts of the country. Higher fuel
[00:08:32] fuel bills are squeezing household household budgets. Taxes on imports,
[00:08:35] imports, push up equipment costs costs for farmers and trade disputes
[00:08:39] disputes threaten their overseas overseas sales. Let's get a sense
[00:08:41] sense of how all of this is playing playing out in various different
[00:08:44] different corners of the US our correspondent correspondent Tom Bateman is in Ohio
[00:08:47] Ohio for us and our correspondent
[00:08:49] correspondent Samira Hussain is with
[00:08:52] with voters in Iowa. All right, let's
[00:08:55] let's start first in Ohio with Tom
[00:08:58] Tom Bateman there. Tom, just tell tell us about how the cost of living
[00:09:01] living question has been playing
[00:09:02] playing there, where you are. Well,
[00:09:06] Well, remember, Sumi, that Ohio has
[00:09:08] has been a Republican dominated state state throughout the entire Trump
[00:09:12] Trump era. Pretty much. You know,
[00:09:15] know, the party holds the two US
[00:09:17] US Senate seats nearly all the seats
[00:09:19] seats in the House of Representatives Representatives representatives and
[00:09:23] and the governor's mansion. But what what we're increasingly seeing here,
[00:09:26] here, if the opinion polls are to to be believed, if the sense of momentum
[00:09:29] momentum that the Democrats think think they have with them here is
[00:09:31] is that they think they can break break that monopoly tomorrow and
[00:09:35] and take a Senate seat and help to
[00:09:37] to try and flip the House of Representatives
[00:09:40] Representatives and even the race race for the governor. Now, here
[00:09:43] here in the city of Columbus, this
[00:09:45] this is Franklin County. It's a heavily
[00:09:48] heavily Democratic voting part of of town. We were out for just before
[00:09:52] before the deadline, actually to to early in-person voting just to
[00:09:55] to get a sense of how people are
[00:09:58] are feeling in what has been, say,
[00:10:01] say, officials, a really big surge
[00:10:03] surge in early voting. People are
[00:10:05] are dying. People are starving. They're
[00:10:08] They're starving. You don't know know whether to buy gas or get a
[00:10:12] a piece of Bologna, a slice of bread.
[00:10:16] bread. I've just been waiting maybe maybe like a little over an hour.
[00:10:19] hour. Why was it important for you you to come and vote today? Change,
[00:10:22] Change, change. I'm so sick of what's what's going on right now. It's insane.
[00:10:26] insane. Prices have not gone down.
[00:10:27] down. Wars have not stopped. They've
[00:10:32] They've continued and we just have have to. We have to work on taking
[00:10:36] taking first steps to get back to
[00:10:39] to what we you know, we just need need to change. This is not the right
[00:10:43] right direction. Senate seat here here between the incumbent Republican.
[00:10:47] Republican. Now the race for the the Senate here between the incumbent
[00:10:51] incumbent Republican Jon Husted and and his Democratic challenger Sherrod
[00:10:54] Sherrod Brown. That's been a pretty
[00:10:57] pretty acrimonious race in different different ways. It gives you a sense
[00:10:59] sense really, of how bitterly fought fought things here are. And I think
[00:11:03] think one of the reasons why President President Trump has been to Ohio
[00:11:06] Ohio three times already during this
[00:11:08] this campaign and also the Vice President President closing the campaign for
[00:11:11] for the Republicans here with a rally rally in the state just in the last
[00:11:14] last few hours. And, Tom, just quickly
[00:11:16] quickly before we let you go, how how much are voters there who you've
[00:11:20] you've been speaking to linking that that cost of living question to some
[00:11:24] some of the foreign policy decisions
[00:11:25] decisions like the war in Iran? Yeah,
[00:11:29] Yeah, I think it's absolutely fundamental. fundamental. I mean, that first woman woman you heard from there at the
[00:11:33] the polling place who was talking talking about, you know, having to
[00:11:36] to choose between buying gas or buying
[00:11:39] buying bread, said after that that that this was fundamentally about,
[00:11:42] about, in her view, not sending people people to war because it costs money
[00:11:45] money to do that. And we've heard heard that repeatedly. Really, I
[00:11:48] I was just talking to a corn farmer
[00:11:52] farmer out just outside Columbus Columbus here in rural Ohio, who
[00:11:55] who said she voted for Donald Trump
[00:11:57] Trump three times in all three presidential presidential elections that he ran.
[00:12:00] ran. But she was undecided now how how to vote tomorrow, largely because,
[00:12:04] because, she says of that soaring soaring cost of diesel, but also
[00:12:06] also because actually of another another really significant issue
[00:12:09] issue here that is playing out in in the election, which is data centres.
[00:12:13] centres. This state has had a huge huge proliferation of them, as you you know, some you've been talking
[00:12:17] talking to people here as well. That
[00:12:19] That feels like it's also increasingly increasingly an issue in this midterm
[00:12:23] midterm election. OK. Tom will of of course be following all your reporting
[00:12:27] reporting through polling day itself. itself. Tom Bateman there in Ohio.
[00:12:29] Ohio. Well, let's get on our campaign
[00:12:31] campaign bus and head from Ohio over
[00:12:33] over to Iowa and we can speak to
[00:12:36] to our correspondent there. Samira Samira Hussain Samara, this issue
[00:12:39] issue of cost of living, the working working poor as they're known people
[00:12:42] people who have jobs but are still still struggling to put food on their
[00:12:46] their tables, petrol in their cars. cars. Are you seeing that play out
[00:12:48] out in Iowa as well? I mean, the
[00:12:52] the cost of living is certainly a
[00:12:55] a massive issue for voters here in
[00:12:57] in this state. And specifically I'm
[00:12:59] I'm in Dubuque, Iowa at a food pantry. pantry. And of course, people here
[00:13:03] here have been discussing the cost cost of living and just how much
[00:13:07] much more expensive groceries are. are. You know, the director of the
[00:13:10] the food pantry here talked about
[00:13:13] about how she has seen an increase
[00:13:16] increase of 20% in the last year year of people coming here. And for
[00:13:19] for many of them, it is in fact first
[00:13:22] first time clients, you know, being
[00:13:24] being forced here because they can't
[00:13:26] can't make ends meet. And especially
[00:13:29] especially for seniors where they're they're on fixed incomes, any kind
[00:13:32] kind of increase to the price of of gasoline, to the price of energy
[00:13:36] energy bills, to the price of food
[00:13:38] food has a real huge impact on those those that are living on a fixed
[00:13:42] fixed income. And smear. Those impacts
[00:13:46] impacts are magnified as well. When When you look at the farming community
[00:13:49] community in Iowa, in other states states nearby like Kansas and so
[00:13:52] so on, farmers facing all of the the challenges you've described,
[00:13:55] described, plus extra issues around around the markets they can sell
[00:13:58] sell into farm machinery, diesel.
[00:14:03] diesel. It's a huge issue. You know,
[00:14:05] know, you might see the cost of living
[00:14:08] living here in a very immediate kind
[00:14:10] kind of way. And for farmers it is
[00:14:13] is an on a much larger scale. So
[00:14:15] So I was actually at a farm just just outside of Dubuque, about half
[00:14:19] half an hour away from here. And And I was speaking with two farmers
[00:14:22] farmers and they both grow some corn
[00:14:24] corn and soybean, but their big money-maker
[00:14:27] money-maker is really cattle. And And one farmer was talking about
[00:14:30] about President Trump's decision
[00:14:32] decision to allow imports of beef
[00:14:34] beef from Argentina. And just how how much of an impact that had on
[00:14:38] on his bottom line that has him quite
[00:14:41] quite angry. And he's certainly looking
[00:14:43] looking to see some kind of change change in government. We happen to
[00:14:46] to be on the farm of his cousin,
[00:14:49] cousin, who also raises cattle, and
[00:14:51] and he says that, look, I have always always been a conservative. That
[00:14:55] That is, you know, the way that I
[00:14:57] I have voted. But he really was not
[00:15:00] not happy with the tone of this election.
[00:15:02] election. And for him, the big issue
[00:15:05] issue was the size of America's national national debt. And he lamented the
[00:15:09] the fact that no one on the campaign campaign trail, be it Republican
[00:15:13] Republican or Democrat, are talking talking about just how much debt
[00:15:16] debt the United States is carrying. carrying. Remember, that's a sensitive
[00:15:19] sensitive issue for farmers. For For farmers, they need to balance
[00:15:22] balance their books all the time.
[00:15:24] time. And so the idea that their
[00:15:27] their country is carrying on with with this enormous amount of debt
[00:15:30] debt has them very concerned. OK.
[00:15:33] OK. Thank you very much. That's Samira Samira Hussain in Iowa. Earlier we
[00:15:37] we heard from Tom in Ohio. We'll We'll hear from more of our correspondents correspondents a little bit later
[00:15:41] later in the programme. Let's bring bring our panel back in then. Angie
[00:15:43] Angie and Joel. Angie, I'll start start with you. What Katrina and
[00:15:47] and I have also seen on the road road is voters connecting the tariff
[00:15:51] tariff of President Trump and also also the war in Iran to some of those
[00:15:54] those higher costs that our correspondents correspondents are reporting on.
[00:15:57] on. How have you seen Republicans Republicans trying to take on the
[00:16:00] the messaging around this ahead of of these midterms? I think when we we do the autopsy for the midterm
[00:16:04] midterm elections, we're going to to see that the Trump administration
[00:16:07] administration has done a terrible terrible job at actually telling
[00:16:10] telling us what's going on with Iran. Iran. We've got no objectives. We
[00:16:13] We don't have an end game. It's just just all Americans see are just higher
[00:16:17] higher gas prices everywhere. So So I think if it was communicated
[00:16:21] communicated better, people, Americans Americans would take that on. If If they understood that there was
[00:16:24] was an end game in three, 4 or 5
[00:16:27] 5 months' time. You know, right now
[00:16:28] now they're being asked to take on on an economic hardship with no end
[00:16:32] end date. And I think we're going going to see a referendum on that
[00:16:35] that tomorrow. But hasn't President President Trump told Americans from from the outset and most recently
[00:16:39] recently in the last few weeks that, that, you know, there are higher
[00:16:42] higher fuel prices? You know, he he said famously, I don't care about
[00:16:46] about the midterms. I care about about making sure that Iran doesn't
[00:16:48] doesn't have a nuclear weapon. So So he's kind of linked those himself.
[00:16:52] himself. And there are some Americans Americans who can take that on, right.
[00:16:56] right. For a couple of cents more more in the gas pump and some that that can't. I think the ones that
[00:17:00] that can't are really voting and and really showing how they're going
[00:17:02] going to be voting in this election. election. You know, right now the
[00:17:06] the hardship if it was short-term, short-term, we would certainly take take it on in trade for national
[00:17:10] national security. But we just don't don't know when this ends. Joel,
[00:17:13] Joel, I want to put that to you. you. Do Democrats actually have an
[00:17:16] an answer to any of these issues? issues? We have heard the very clear
[00:17:19] clear message President Trump has has made the cost of your life higher.
[00:17:22] higher. But Democrats certainly will will have to if they win control control of the House and perhaps
[00:17:26] perhaps the Senate have some sort sort of agenda to deliver to those
[00:17:30] those voters. Democrats will have
[00:17:32] have an agenda, but ultimately it's it's still going to be the President's
[00:17:36] President's call. So I think what what Democrats are arguing here is
[00:17:38] is that first and foremost, do not not trust the policies that he's
[00:17:41] he's enacting, be it on tariffs,
[00:17:43] tariffs, be it on the war with Iran.
[00:17:45] Iran. Those are increasing your prices prices at the pump diesel fertiliser.
[00:17:49] fertiliser. And by the way, we should should mention that the people who
[00:17:52] who are getting hurt hardest in the the heartland are his voters. And
[00:17:56] And these are now many districts districts where Democrats could pick
[00:17:59] pick up red Senate seats that Donald Donald Trump won just two years ago.
[00:18:03] ago. So I think Democrats are going going to make the argument. Maybe Maybe they'll put bills forward about
[00:18:07] about ending the war in Iran, about about cutting prices, ending tariffs.
[00:18:10] tariffs. It's still going to be Donald Donald Trump's decision on whether
[00:18:13] whether or not to follow that. But But there will be a counter and a
[00:18:17] a contrast made. I've been in Kansas,
[00:18:19] Kansas, spoken to some of these farmers farmers who are Republicans who are
[00:18:22] are solid Donald Trump voters, and and maybe they're toying with not
[00:18:26] not voting for him this time around, around, Joe, but can Democrats hang
[00:18:28] hang on to them beyond this kind
[00:18:31] kind of reaction to what you're talking talking about? Angie, of the pain
[00:18:35] pain at the prices. I mean, this this is the always the push and pull
[00:18:38] pull within the Democratic the Democratic Democratic Party and democracy in
[00:18:41] in general, which is to be a majority. majority. One has to get to the moderate
[00:18:45] moderate voters. And so now they're they're going to be moderate voters voters in the party. We have already
[00:18:49] already seen we've seen this for
[00:18:51] for the last year very rise of a
[00:18:53] a very strong far left in blue districts. districts. So there's going to be
[00:18:56] be a major competition on Capitol Capitol Hill about the direction
[00:18:59] direction of the party, the policies policies we're going to pursue. So
[00:19:01] So it's an open question about holding holding on to those voters, because because you're going to see a lot
[00:19:05] lot of battles internally. What lessons lessons do you think Angie can be
[00:19:09] be learned from Republicans from from this election? Because we've
[00:19:11] we've already seen some Republican Republican candidates, let's say,
[00:19:14] say, distance themselves a bit from from President Trump and their messaging messaging saying, I think the Iran
[00:19:18] Iran war should end today or tomorrow. tomorrow. I think that we should
[00:19:21] should look at these tariffs against against Canada, for example. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we're going to have
[00:19:25] have to do a lot of soul searching searching the day after. And I think
[00:19:29] think that President Trump understands understands that he's even come out
[00:19:31] out on AP to say he's done a terrible
[00:19:34] terrible job messaging on the economy. economy. He's talked about stock
[00:19:38] stock prices and how great the stock stock market is doing. That's not
[00:19:40] not going to help a 23-year-old voter
[00:19:42] voter or someone who has a farm because because they just care that their
[00:19:45] their credit cards are maxed out out and that they don't have, you
[00:19:48] you know, a huge debt. And how are are they going to pay their mortgages mortgages and how are they going
[00:19:52] going to pay just general basic costs costs of living? President Trump
[00:19:56] Trump and and some Republicans have have not really addressed those issues
[00:19:59] issues to the point where they really really feel authentic. I think that,
[00:20:02] that, you know, we're going to have have to really kind of go back to
[00:20:05] to the whiteboard and see how we're we're going to address that for
[00:20:09] 2018. And if I can give you an immediate immediate example, it's going to to happen, is that we're going to
[00:20:11] to see a spike in health care premiums premiums by 13% under the Affordable
[00:20:15] Affordable Care Act early next year. year. So Democrats are certainly certainly going to put bills for
[00:20:19] for it to end that spike and to try try to subsidise, again, Americans
[00:20:22] Americans health care. And if they they get that through the Congress Congress and they put it on the President's
[00:20:26] President's desk, he's going to have have to decide is he going to veto veto that and risk the ire of the
[00:20:30] the voter, or is he going to follow follow the Democrats lead where they they get a political win? But the
[00:20:33] the American people ultimately get get a win at the pocketbook? What
[00:20:36] What do you see happening in that that scenario, Angie? I know President President Trump has been speaking
[00:20:39] speaking about I'll be the veto, veto, veto, veto president, but will
[00:20:43] will he have an eye on what happens happens to the party in 28 when he's
[00:20:46] he's not there? Oh he must. I mean, mean, we're looking at Ohio right
[00:20:48] right now. We have to win Ohio. Otherwise Otherwise JD Vance may not have a
[00:20:51] a clean pathway to winning in 28.
[00:20:54] 28. So I think that is the President President going to compromise on
[00:20:57] on things. I think his team has to to go back and really look, if the
[00:21:00] the health care plan makes sense sense for all Americans, sure. But
[00:21:03] But he's already doing his Trump Trump RX and he's doing all other
[00:21:06] other things to bring down the cost cost of living. You know, people
[00:21:08] people don't see the long-term mechanisms mechanisms of what the Trump administration
[00:21:12] administration has done. They want want quick fixes. And maybe that
[00:21:15] that could be something that he might might have to give in to. That's That's really interesting point you
[00:21:18] you make there about JD Vance because because of course, the seat that's
[00:21:21] that's up in Ohio is a special election election for his seat. If that's
[00:21:25] that's lost, does that put his possible
[00:21:27] possible candidacy under threat then? I certainly think so. If he he can't win in his own home state,
[00:21:31] state, that's going to be a really, really, really big mess. And we you
[00:21:35] you know, the Republicans may have have to kind of rethink what who's
[00:21:38] who's going to be on that ticket? ticket? Wow. Fascinating. Well great great thoughts. We're going to come
[00:21:41] come back to both of you in just just a moment. Now, we touched on
[00:21:45] on early voting at the top of the the show. And indeed, Angie and Joel
[00:21:48] Joel have both mentioned it. So let's let's have a quick look at some of
[00:21:51] of the numbers. Already 57 million
[00:21:55] million Americans have cast their their ballots. That's according to
[00:21:58] to the University of Florida's election election lab. They keep track of
[00:22:01] of all the data. That is more than
[00:22:05] than 45.9 million of the early votes
[00:22:08] votes in the 2022 midterms. And of of those who have cast their votes
[00:22:11] votes early this year, 43% are registered
[00:22:15] registered Democrats and just under under 32% are Republicans. Now that's that's how they're registered. We
[00:22:19] We don't know if that's how they they actually cast their votes. We
[00:22:22] We don't have access to that kind kind of data until the votes are
[00:22:25] are counted. But in several key states, states, the share of registered Democrats
[00:22:29] Democrats has increased in the early early vote in comparison to previous
[00:22:32] previous elections. Now in Kansas,
[00:22:34] Kansas, for instance, 41% of early early voters are registered with
[00:22:38] with the Democratic Party. That's
[00:22:41] That's compared to 32% in the 2024 2024 general election. In Texas,
[00:22:45] Texas, we've seen a record 7.7 million
[00:22:48] million people voting early in 2022.
[00:22:50] 2022. For comparison, that number
[00:22:52] number was just under 5.5 million. million. So let's come back to the
[00:22:56] the panel because we were just talking talking about, let's say, voter enthusiasm
[00:23:00] enthusiasm and these record numbers numbers for early voting. And I want want to start with you because Florida,
[00:23:04] Florida, where you are based, has has also seen some really interesting interesting early voting numbers.
[00:23:07] numbers. What are those numbers telling telling you? Historic numbers. People
[00:23:10] People are voting like it's a presidential presidential election. We're seeing
[00:23:13] seeing both sides really drum out out the votes, and I'm happy to see
[00:23:16] see it. We're usually Democrats like
[00:23:19] like to front load and we see a lot lot of mail in ballots and early
[00:23:21] early voting. Republicans have kind kind of taken over that as well that
[00:23:25] that whole game. Will we still have have enough Republicans on election election day? We'll see. But what
[00:23:29] what I'm really, really worried about
[00:23:31] about is the unaffiliated, the independent
[00:23:34] independent votes because we're talking talking 22 to 24% who are registered
[00:23:38] registered independents now and who
[00:23:40] who are they? A lot of Jewish voters
[00:23:42] voters that were once Democrats moved moved into the independent column,
[00:23:46] column, a lot of Hispanics that were
[00:23:47] were once Republicans moved into into the independents. And that's
[00:23:51] that's I'm talking mainly for Florida. Florida. We don't know how they're
[00:23:54] they're going to vote. It could be
[00:23:55] be a split ticket. I'm hearing from
[00:23:58] from various state committee people people that it is a split ticket.
[00:24:02] ticket. So Florida, I thought it it was a red wall. We might have
[00:24:05] have some surprises tomorrow. Wow. Wow. Watch it here. First. The days
[00:24:08] days of when it was a swing state, state, which wasn't that long ago.
[00:24:11] ago. But even in Texas, the early early vote that's been cast there,
[00:24:14] there, Joel, is 90% of the total total turnout in the last set of
[00:24:18] of midterm elections. Are you reading reading that as a good day for Democrats?
[00:24:21] Democrats? Well, Texas is the white white whale for the Democratic Party.
[00:24:25] Party. We really, really believe believe we can get it this time.
[00:24:27] time. This time, this time this might might be the time Talarico has been
[00:24:30] been ahead. The whole the whole season. season. And even Beto O'Rourke about
[00:24:34] about I guess eight years ago when
[00:24:36] when he ran, he came close a few few points behind, but he was never
[00:24:40] never ahead in the polls, Talarico Talarico said. In the polls, tremendous
[00:24:43] tremendous fundraising. Paxton is is not popular in the Republican
[00:24:46] Republican Party. We've seen a lot lot of splits there. Karl Rove, George
[00:24:49] George W Bush's top adviser, is voting
[00:24:51] voting for Talarico. So that could could be a win. And again, what I
[00:24:55] I said earlier, the Latino vote, vote, especially in South Texas,
[00:24:58] Texas, I mean, that is going Democratic Democratic now in a way that it did
[00:25:02] did not two years ago. Well, just just quickly on that, we just have
[00:25:04] have about a minute left. If you
[00:25:08] you look at that enthusiasm, Democrats Democrats do tend to turn out for
[00:25:11] for early voting. So are you convinced convinced that that early voting
[00:25:14] voting advantage, perhaps an advantage advantage against we don't know how how people cast their ballots, will
[00:25:17] will stand up on election day. This
[00:25:21] This is the hedge that I have, but but also the opportunity, which is
[00:25:24] is if we can get enough early votes votes in. That means that when you
[00:25:28] you look at who are the less frequent frequent voters on election day,
[00:25:31] day, then the Democratic turnout turnout machine can go to them and and not have to worry about those
[00:25:35] those who are higher propensity voters voters and try to get them out to
[00:25:38] to the polls rather than seeing us us cannibalising our vote for the
[00:25:41] the early vote. I think this is the the year where the enthusiasm opportunity
[00:25:45] opportunity is real, and that means means that tomorrow people are going
[00:25:48] going to have to get out to the polls polls and there's going to be a lot
[00:25:51] lot of mobilisation on the ground. And Andy, just very briefly, briefly, are you worried about Republicans
[00:25:54] Republicans staying home entirely? entirely? No, no. I think Republicans Republicans are coming out. I think
[00:25:58] think we keep Texas. I'm going to to go against Joel on this one. We'll
[00:26:01] We'll battle it out. It's a dollar dollar on us. Alamo there. Yeah,
[00:26:05] Yeah, well we'll talk about lots
[00:26:06] lots of other parts of the US in
[00:26:09] in just a moment. So do stay with with us. And Joy Yang and Joel Rubin
[00:26:13] Rubin and you at home do stay with
[00:26:15] with us here on The Context USA on on BBC News. We'll be hearing from
[00:26:18] from many other parts of the country, country, including Michigan, where
[00:26:22] where there is a very, very hot Senate Senate race playing out there between
[00:26:25] between the Democrat Abdul El-Sayed
[00:26:28] El-Sayed and the Republican challenger, challenger, Congressman Mike Rogers,
[00:26:32] Rogers, and the cat that was said said amongst the pigeons yesterday yesterday as well. That's right.
[00:26:35] right. Real controversy on the Democrat Democrat side of the aisle, which
[00:26:38] which we're going to be talking about about here, of course, with Joel
[00:26:41] Joel and with Angie, with Congresswoman Congresswoman Haley Stevens endorsing
[00:26:45] endorsing the Republican Mike Rogers Rogers instead of her fellow Democrat.
[00:26:48] Democrat. There's a lot to unpack unpack there, but certainly Michigan Michigan is going to be one of those
[00:26:52] those states to watch in the Senate. Senate. As we look at Congress there,
[00:26:56] there, it's all about who will control
[00:26:58] control that building there in Congress Congress after the election. So we'll
[00:27:01] we'll be right back in just a few few moments. Stay with us here on on The Context
[00:30:39] gains. Follow our coverage right
[00:30:41] right here on BBC News. MUSIC
[00:30:57] Will voters strengthen Donald Trump's hand or change the