BBCPERSIAN — broadcast
20260806 093000 UTC
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[00:00:21] It is designed in such a way that both
[00:00:25] on the entry route and in parts of the
[00:00:28] exit route. Commercial ships will pass through
[00:00:32] Iran's territorial waters.
[00:00:36] Eyes are on the impending announcement of a pact between Iran
[00:00:39] and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, under the shadow of
[00:00:43] Trump's threats. Tehran says old routes will be
[00:00:47] closed and the new one will also be
[00:00:50] temporary. We ask two political analysts whether
[00:00:53] the upcoming agreement on the Strait of Hormuz can be
[00:00:57] considered a strategic victory for Iran or if this
[00:01:00] is just the beginning of a new phase of confrontation
[00:01:13] decrease in US arms reserves and
[00:01:16] Washington's denial. Has the shortage of missiles and
[00:01:20] missile defense systems changed Trump's strategy in the war with
[00:01:24] Iran?
[00:01:25] Speculation
[00:01:34] about the selection of the next Secretary-General of the United
[00:01:37] Nations. Four women and three men, including Rafael
[00:01:41] Grossi, are candidates to succeed
[00:01:45] Guterres. It must be determined which of them has
[00:01:48] a better chance of both getting the majority vote and not being
[00:01:52] opposed by any permanent
[00:01:53] members.
[00:02:16] Tehran and Muscat have reached an understanding on
[00:02:20] the geographical coordinates of the shipping lane in the Strait
[00:02:23] of Hormuz, and a joint statement will be released
[00:02:27] soon. Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for
[00:02:31] the Foreign Ministry, however, has emphasized that this agreement
[00:02:34] does not mean the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz. He has
[00:02:38] called US actions one of the main obstacles. Kazem Gharibabadi,
[00:02:41] Deputy for International Affairs at the Ministry, also said the new
[00:02:45] agreement with Oman regarding the new shipping lane will increase
[00:02:49] passage through Iran's territorial waters. This is happening as US
[00:02:53] President Donald Trump has again threatened military
[00:03:00] he has gained the upper hand in the Strait of Hormuz case
[00:03:14] ship that was attacked and sunk yesterday at
[00:03:17] the mouth of the Red Sea were those who had
[00:03:20] superficial injuries. All
[00:03:23] 13 Indian and Yemeni
[00:03:27] crew members were rescued. Today,
[00:03:30] the Houthis also attacked a Saudi oil
[00:03:34] tanker. It was the eighth Saudi
[00:03:37] oil tanker to be targeted since the Houthi threat
[00:03:41] began two
[00:03:42] weeks ago.
[00:03:45] We condemn this attack. This ship was hit by a boat
[00:03:48] full of explosives at a point about 13 nautical miles
[00:03:52] southwest of Hodeidah. Attacking merchant ships in the Red
[00:03:56] Sea is an attack on Yemen and the people of Yemen. In the Strait,
[00:04:01] one or more ships were attacked and set on fire here
[00:04:05] off the coast of Oman. Satellite images show
[00:04:09] a large fire that may be related to a ship that was attacked
[00:04:13] here yesterday, a Liberian-flagged cargo ship. An attack
[00:04:17] in which one of the crew members was reported
[00:04:20] missing. The Strait
[00:04:24] is now at
[00:04:25] the center
[00:04:29] of trilateral talks between Iran, Oman,
[00:04:33] and the US. The Iranians contacted
[00:04:36] me and very politely requested a conversation,
[00:04:40] and I accepted. I said, let's bring this
[00:04:44] agreement to fruition. But what matters is action, not
[00:04:46] words. If they are not willing to agree, it will not
[00:04:50] be good for them. American sources told the
[00:04:53] Axios website that in the ongoing negotiations,
[00:04:57] it has been considered that ships will enter
[00:05:01] the Strait of Hormuz from Iran's coastal waters and exit
[00:05:04] from Oman's coastal waters. During the 30 days that these
[00:05:08] arrangements are supposed to be temporarily in effect,
[00:05:11] the mines in the middle part of the Strait will be cleared
[00:05:15] so that ships can then pass through the middle part.
[00:05:18] This has jeopardized the national security of the Islamic Republic
[00:05:22] of Iran. The Iranian side says talks with Oman have made good
[00:05:25] progress, provided that the US does not interfere. Right
[00:05:29] now, I can say the latest situation is that
[00:05:32] almost all
[00:05:35] the issues that were raised,
[00:05:38] including the map of transit routes, entry routes, and
[00:05:42] the maritime traffic itself,
[00:05:45] and those side understandings with Oman, because
[00:05:49] it's not just a map, these are almost
[00:05:52] fundamental understandings reached
[00:05:55] with Oman. The Iranian Foreign Minister,
[00:05:59] who went to Karbala yesterday for the Arba'een ceremony,
[00:06:03] is now scheduled to go to Pakistan on Friday to continue
[00:06:07] his mediation by exchanging messages between Iran
[00:06:11] and the US. Although the Foreign Ministry spokesperson
[00:06:15] now says there are no plans for this trip.
[00:06:19] The opening of the Strait of Hormuz is now under
[00:06:22] discussion in exchange for lifting the naval
[00:06:25] blockade of Iran, and probably a return to the
[00:06:28] Islamabad agreement.
[00:06:37] political analyst. Ms. Mohammadi believes that the US should
[00:06:41] not be trusted, and that Iran should seek lasting peace
[00:06:45] through victory, not through surrender. Alireza
[00:06:48] Namvar Haqiqi is also with us. Mr. Namvar Haqiqi believes
[00:06:51] that Iran should strengthen the existing memorandum of
[00:06:55] understanding with common interests and confidence-building measures,
[00:06:58] including ending hostilities with Israel. Ms. Mohammadi,
[00:07:02] let's start with you. Do you think that what has been
[00:07:06] announced so far (which hasn't been finalized yet)
[00:07:10] is a victory for Iran at this stage, or
[00:07:13] could it be the beginning of a new round of confrontation
[00:07:16] and bargaining? You see, the result
[00:07:20] of these negotiations that are leading to
[00:07:23] this understanding, these talks, is not yet clear,
[00:08:12] if we are to go by the official announcement, in my opinion,
[00:08:16] these negotiations are not between Iran and Oman
[00:08:19] due to a variety of reasons, due to a variety
[00:08:22] of reasons that define the relations of Iran and
[00:08:26] America and, on the other hand, the region, including
[00:08:29] Oman, with America. We are conducting negotiations
[00:08:32] under the supervision of America,
[00:08:36] and the Omani side is in contact with America at
[00:08:39] all times. Do you still give Iran the upper hand here?
[00:08:43] Yes, I give Iran the upper hand because America
[00:08:46] has resorted to various methods. Right now,
[00:08:50] the fact that Iran is talking to Oman,
[00:08:53] and you know that a couple
[00:08:56] of months ago, (I won't say exactly when), America was putting
[00:09:00] pressure on Oman to cut ties with Iran. The advantage
[00:09:04] Oman has is that its position, its
[00:09:07] political and strategic
[00:09:10] position, differs from
[00:09:13] other countries in the region, especially Iran.
[00:09:16] It has never succumbed to American threats. It hasn't
[00:09:20] cut ties. This doesn't mean that Oman is capable
[00:09:23] of exercising independent will from America
[00:09:27] in the region. It doesn't want to,
[00:09:29] and it doesn't have the
[00:09:32] ability. Therefore, to the extent that America
[00:09:36] is willing to compromise in the face of Iran and
[00:09:40] Iran's demands, and to the
[00:09:43] extent that America abandons its bullying, it can
[00:09:46] be said that America has retreated and Iran has
[00:09:50] achieved victories. Mr. Namvar, how do you see the
[00:10:06] the Islamic Republic, of course, successfully resisted
[00:10:10] the 40-day war, and
[00:10:14] the policy that Mr. Trump
[00:10:16] initially intended to achieve complete surrender
[00:10:20] or unconditional surrender was not successful. But that
[00:10:23] memorandum of understanding, in my opinion, that memorandum of
[00:10:27] understanding itself was a victory for Iran. But the important
[00:10:30] thing is for Iran to move towards its realization, not
[00:10:34] to take actions that will disrupt that memorandum of understanding.
[00:10:37] Why? Because the concessions and benefits
[00:10:41] that it gains from that memorandum will be canceled. You see, in the memorandum
[00:10:45] of understanding, you had oil sales exemptions
[00:10:49] that had legal, economic, and banking annexes.
[00:10:52] This didn't even happen in the JCPOA. It didn't happen,
[00:10:55] meaning that in the JCPOA, over a period of 10 years,
[00:10:59] the amount of Iran's oil sales gradually increased, and
[00:11:03] then it took seven or eight months due to banking issues. This
[00:11:07] has solved this in one go, which is very important. Well,
[00:11:10] the Islamic Republic didn't realize this, or those who
[00:11:14] have other interests, because there are factions in the Islamic
[00:11:18] Republic that don't want the issue to be resolved. The second
[00:11:21] point is that the requirements and consequences of this
[00:11:25] memorandum of understanding go towards two strategic
[00:11:27] issues that Iran's foreign
[00:11:30] policy has tried to act against. One of them
[00:11:33] is the issue of America and Israel. The requirement of
[00:11:37] this memorandum of understanding is that you must abandon hostilities
[00:11:41] with Israel. That's its first clause. And the second is
[00:11:45] the normalization of relations with Israel and America.
[00:11:48] Because you demanded the lifting of primary sanctions,
[00:11:52] bringing in $300 billion in business. Well, the Americans
[00:11:55] must be behind this. As far as
[00:11:58] I understand, you are saying that insisting on controlling
[00:12:02] the Strait of Hormuz
[00:12:14] end will reach the end. He who looks at the end must
[00:12:17] start at the beginning." You see, the strategic benefit
[00:12:21] of this memorandum is the lifting of primary sanctions. It is
[00:12:25] for Iran to be able to attract $300 billion in
[00:12:28] investment and to be able to enter a new
[00:12:31] era of peace for development. If the government
[00:12:35] wants to adopt any other strategy besides this,
[00:12:39] Iran will definitely enter a chronic period of endless
[00:12:42] wars and even widespread wars, which will jeopardize
[00:12:45] the integrity and future of the country. Therefore,
[00:12:48] this insistence on the Strait of Hormuz, which, if you
[00:12:52] pay attention, even the Chinese oppose, the Chinese
[00:12:55] did not support Iran. And the international community has
[00:12:59] a problem because during the war, they understood that yes, America
[00:13:03] attacked, and because of America's attack, they closed
[00:13:06] the Strait. But now, these actions are based
[00:13:09] on arguments that don't even have a basis in
[00:13:13] international law. That is, you cannot justify these
[00:13:17] actions in any game, and most importantly, from a political
[00:13:30] these current negotiations to be about the memorandum
[00:13:34] of understanding. As Mr.
[00:13:36] Haqiqi said, there were
[00:13:40] some good points in it, and in my interview with
[00:13:44] you, I think I said at the time that this
[00:13:48] memorandum of understanding had no validity.
[00:13:50] You saw that the clause was a sign
[00:13:54] of Iran's victory. Accepting this meant that America
[00:13:58] would sign that we would not interfere with Lebanon
[00:14:02] and Syria. This first clause was violated
[00:14:05] in the first hour, it was actually sensed. The tolerance of Iran in the face
[00:14:09] of the violation of that memorandum of understanding, which
[00:14:13] in my opinion had no basis, was to lower the price
[00:14:16] of oil a bit and to put Iran's actions to
[00:14:20] the test. Well, clause 5 of that memorandum
[00:14:22] was violated. After the first
[00:14:26] clause was violated by America's
[00:14:29] ally in the very first
[00:14:32] hour, clause 5 was also violated, and that memorandum
[00:14:36] of understanding, in my opinion, has no validity. And those
[00:14:39] who are pursuing it now do not mean that Iran is
[00:14:43] pursuing that memorandum of understanding. 300 million
[00:14:46] dollars, well, these are myths that we even
[00:14:50] say about American Trump, let alone America.
[00:14:52] The history of going back on words and promises,
[00:14:56] and Mr. Haqiqi talks about international laws
[00:14:59] and that this action of Iran has no legal validity.
[00:15:03] In a world where the ruler of its order is this
[00:15:06] American who goes and hits the president of a country
[00:15:09] and brings him, who assassinates the leader
[00:15:12] of a country and all its top officials,
[00:15:16] which is unprecedented in the history of international
[00:15:20] laws, and proudly says, "I did this,"
[00:15:23] talking about international laws and how others look
[00:15:27] at us, how the world looks at us,
[00:15:42] the United States and these negotiations
[00:15:45] about the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz,
[00:15:48] even though it hasn't been like that until now,
[00:15:52] today America's hostile behavior towards Iran
[00:15:55] has reached a point where the Strait of Hormuz
[00:15:59] is a weapon in Iran's hand, and it should not lose
[00:16:03] it. If the result of these negotiations is what is
[00:16:06] being said now, that it is temporary, like the memorandum
[00:16:10] of understanding, then we don't oppose it, and we shouldn't.
[00:16:14] I don't oppose any negotiations. I am pessimistic
[00:16:17] about the result, but I would never do this. Now
[00:16:21] that the world has come to this and international
[00:16:25] laws are invalid, I think you are probably against
[00:16:29] this view.
[00:16:32] Yes, Ms. Maliheh Mohammadi, you are
[00:16:35] like a swordsman with eyes.
[00:16:39] A swordsman strikes with his hand, and there is no
[00:16:42] outlook for exiting the crisis. You see, the main issue
[00:16:46] is that we must see what costs this
[00:16:49] created situation has for Iran. Iran is currently
[00:16:53] under a naval blockade. This blockade
[00:16:57] is causing huge economic damage to Iran. Iran's
[00:17:00] oil sales are facing challenges. Iran's pension
[00:17:04] funds are facing a crisis. Look at the oil pension
[00:17:07] fund now. This fund was the richest fund in Iran.
[00:17:11] Now it owes $19 billion to the development
[00:17:14] fund. And now the oil
[00:17:18] company is in debt, and its accounts have
[00:17:21] been blocked. This situation means you have 5 million
[00:17:24] unemployed due to the consequences of war, and
[00:17:28] this trend is increasing, meaning it's not even
[00:17:31] decreasing. So, continuing this economic
[00:17:34] blockade will lead to Iran's ruin. The second
[00:17:38] point that needs to be considered is the social
[00:17:42] crises resulting from this, meaning society is in a state
[00:17:45] of suspension. Will there be war or not? Because you
[00:17:49] cannot keep society in such a state, especially when
[00:17:53] society needs to have hope for the future, attract
[00:17:57] investment, and look forward. Well, the third
[00:18:00] point is society, which is young and wants to build
[00:18:04] its future. The third point that they don't pay attention
[00:18:08] to is that this memorandum of understanding is good.
[00:18:11] Well, you finally have to write a memorandum of understanding
[00:18:14] that ends these hostilities. This
[00:18:18] memorandum is good, it has ambiguities. The ambiguity
[00:18:21] of its first clause was that Israel did not sign
[00:18:25] it. It is not clear what should be done if something
[00:18:29] happens. We said at the time that ambiguities should
[00:18:32] be resolved. Its fifth clause also has ambiguities
[00:18:36] regarding the Persian Gulf and enrichment. The important
[00:18:39] thing is to resolve these ambiguities and to strengthen
[00:18:43] relations. One way that can build trust and reduce
[00:18:47] tensions is for Iran to bring up the issue
[00:18:51] of normalizing relations as a priority. The gentlemen
[00:18:54] who wrote this text say that in the end, they
[00:18:58] want to normalize relations, while in my opinion,
[00:19:01] they can give them the key to the embassy right now.
[00:19:05] These are confidence-building measures. The second point
[00:19:09] is about Israel. You see, if Iran wants to continue
[00:19:12] the strategy of destroying Israel, you know that we
[00:19:16] will be in this war forever. The way is to go behind
[00:19:20] the Arab peace plan, Saudi Arabia and other
[00:19:23] countries. The third point is that you must define
[00:19:27] common interests that encourage people towards peace, not
[00:19:31] war. The fourth point that Ms. Mohammadi does
[00:19:34] not pay attention to is that, yes, America violates
[00:19:37] the law and acts against international laws. But
[00:19:41] now, your solution is force. You want to change the rules
[00:19:44] of the game by force. Well, in the game of
[00:19:47] force, you will not lose. Look at the experience of
[00:19:51] small powers or medium
[00:20:25] point is that resistance is in defense and that
[00:20:28] society accepts that your solution is the right
[00:20:31] solution. The majority of society is looking for
[00:20:35] understanding and negotiation. They do not believe that
[00:20:38] they should always be at war with America. Very
[00:20:42] briefly, Ms. Mohammadi, please, I need to give
[00:20:44] both of you time again. Ms. Mohammadi, quickly,
[00:20:48] please. I don't know what to do with
[00:20:52] these statements that Mr. Haqiqi makes and constantly accuses
[00:20:55] the other side of not paying attention. This country is being
[00:20:59] violated because force is bad, but
[00:21:01] for a smaller country, surrendering is good. Let
[00:21:05] them surrender. What will happen to Iran after
[00:21:09] surrendering? Others have done
[00:21:12] this. They surrendered, gave up their weapons.
[00:21:15] The Iranian people have experienced all of this.
[00:21:17] And the fact that Mr. Haqiqi
[00:21:50] so decisively speaks for the majority of the
[00:21:53] Iranian people, thinking he knows what the majority
[00:21:57] thinks, is really a question, because
[00:22:00] in our society we have an active majority,
[00:22:04] meaning we have active, passive, indifferent,
[00:22:07] opposing, and supporting groups. The group that
[00:22:11] is currently present in the political and social arena
[00:22:14] of Iran, Mr. Haqiqi.
[00:22:18] This memorandum of understanding
[00:22:39] is not Iran's surrender. Iran's primary sanctions are
[00:22:43] being lifted. This is the first time since the
[00:22:47] revolution that the issue of lifting Iran's primary
[00:23:20] sanctions has been included
[00:23:29] the same things about enrichment. You see,
[00:23:31] we told them about enrichment back when Dr. Milani
[00:23:35] wrote an article saying to give up enrichment,
[00:23:39] lift primary sanctions,
[00:24:02] I am going to have to cut you off there.
[00:24:05] Thank you very much to both of you for joining us.
[00:24:09] These disagreements exist and we hope that we can
[00:24:13] talk more about these issues in future opportunities.
[00:24:16] Maliheh Mohammadi and Alireza Namvar Haqiqi, both analysts
[00:24:20] of Iranian political affairs. New reports from
[00:24:23] American media and research centers indicate a significant
[00:24:27] decrease in the reserves of some of America's most
[00:24:31] important missiles during the
[00:24:39] portion of its long-range and precision missile reserves.
[00:24:42] The Center for Strategic and International Studies also
[00:24:46] estimated that US missile defense system reserves
[00:24:50] have severely decreased. But exactly which missiles
[00:24:54] has the US used, and can this issue affect Washington's
[00:24:57] military capability in future crises? Baran Abbasi
[00:25:01] has gone to find answers to these questions. Are
[00:25:04] US missile reserves running out? An exclusive
[00:25:07] Reuters report says the US military has used
[00:25:11] a significant portion of its reserves of some
[00:25:14] types of long-range and precision missiles
[00:25:18] during the war with Iran. This is the moment
[00:25:21] of firing a short-range surface-to-surface missile
[00:25:24] known as ATACMS, the US Army's tactical missile.
[00:25:28] Three informed sources on US arms reserves said
[00:25:32] that almost all of these missiles were used during
[00:25:35] the war in Iran. The US Army is phasing
[00:25:39] out ATACMS missiles and gradually replacing them
[00:25:41] with newer missiles called PrSM, which can be
[00:25:45] seen being launched here. According to Reuters,
[00:25:48] the reserves of this missile have been limited from
[00:25:52] the beginning due to its
[00:25:53] newness, and a significant
[00:25:56] portion of it has been used. These missiles are
[00:25:59] used for precise attacks on targets at very
[00:26:03] long distances, and the price of each is
[00:26:07] more than one million dollars.
[00:26:09] The reason for the depletion of these reserves, according
[00:26:12] to American sources, is that Donald Trump preferred
[00:26:16] to use these missiles instead of high-risk
[00:26:20] options like sending manned bombers into Iranian
[00:26:23] airspace. But the issue is not
[00:26:27] just surface-to-surface missiles. According to
[00:26:31] one Reuters source,
[00:26:35] the US has used about half of its Tomahawk
[00:26:38] cruise missile reserves since the start of the
[00:26:41] war. Tomahawk is a naval weapon and is usually
[00:26:45] launched from vessels. It is one of America's
[00:26:49] most important tools for attacking distant and highly
[00:26:52] protected targets. However, the main concern may be
[00:26:56] related to defense systems. Last week, the Center
[00:27:00] for Strategic and International Studies estimated that
[00:27:03] about two-thirds of America's Patriot missile defense
[00:27:07] systems have also been used since the start of
[00:27:10] the war in March until August 5th. Also,
[00:27:14] the number of THAAD missile system missiles has decreased
[00:27:17] by 40 to 50 percent compared to the start of
[00:27:21] the war. Patriot and THAAD are used to identify
[00:27:24] and destroy incoming projectiles such as
[00:27:28] ballistic missiles and are among America's most important defense systems.
[00:27:34] However, Washington denies
[00:27:36] reports about its arms
[00:27:39] reserves. The White House, quoting Donald Trump in a statement,
[00:27:42] said: "We have more weapons
[00:27:46] than anyone else in the world and far more than
[00:27:50] we need. Our defense industry companies are currently
[00:27:53] producing more ammunition than ever before, and
[00:27:57] in addition, they are expanding their factories and equipment
[00:28:01] at an unprecedented rate." However, American media
[00:28:04] say that warnings from Donald Trump's military
[00:28:08] advisors about the state of US arms reserves
[00:28:11] caused him to decide to stop attacks against
[00:28:14] Iran. Although he himself said
[00:28:18] he wants But if reports about
[00:28:22] the depletion of arms reserves are true, it
[00:28:26] means that the US no longer has the
[00:28:29] ability to continue the war. Not
[00:28:33] necessarily. As Donald Trump said, the US
[00:28:36] can produce these missiles again. Also,
[00:28:40] the Reuters report says the US military has
[00:28:44] collected part of its needed weapons from reserves
[00:28:47] it had in various parts of the world.
[00:28:51] But analysts warn that the ability to replace
[00:28:55] these weapons may not be as fast as
[00:28:59] their consumption in a major war. Therefore,
[00:29:03] if the US gets involved in an all-out
[00:29:07] war with Iran again, the depletion of these
[00:29:16] riskier operations involving Analysis at the Hudson Institute, how
[00:29:20] serious the issue of America's ammunition shortage
[00:29:22] is.
[00:29:26] The main problem and challenge is not the current war
[00:29:30] can lead to bomb deployment. The main
[00:29:38] challenge
[00:29:41] is intercepting ballistic missiles fired from Iran towards
[00:29:45] Israel or the Persian Gulf countries.
[00:29:48] Israel has its own defense systems, but
[00:29:52] the Gulf countries specifically rely on US defense
[00:29:55] systems. The situation becomes more dangerous when
[00:29:59] the US enters a war with Russia or China, because
[00:30:03] at that point, the need for ammunition will be incredibly
[00:30:06] higher and much more than the current stock
[00:30:09] of the most advanced American weapons.
[00:30:13] Well, if these reports are confirmed, of course,
[00:30:17] the American side says there is no such
[00:30:20] shortage, but if it is even partially true,
[00:30:24] then it can be predicted
[00:30:26] that, for example, the US government and the US army
[00:30:30] will be forced to change their strategy. in this war.
[00:30:34] That is, in a way,
[00:30:38] in order to carry out its operations,
[00:30:41] it will be forced to use
[00:30:44] perhaps more risky methods?
[00:30:46] بکنه؟
[00:30:51] Again, if the current conflict with Iran is not
[00:30:55] a significant threat to American forces.