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[00:00:02] And now on BBC Persian TV, the war? current affairs.
[00:00:28] Numerous reports of. Significant depletion of
[00:00:32] US arms and Washington's denial. Will the shortage of missiles
[00:00:35] and missile defense systems change Trump's strategy
[00:00:39] in the war with Iran? Let's
[00:00:42] see in Ukraine. Was what they say
[00:00:45] was a mistake really a mistake? If we look
[00:00:49] at the multi-layered conflict between Iran and Ukraine after a
[00:00:53] an Iranian ship was targeted in the Caspian Sea, two
[00:00:56] drone powers facing each other on several fronts.
[00:01:03] Warning about an unprecedented decline in Iran's birth rate.
[00:01:07] What role does the economic crisis play? Increased
[00:01:10] urbanization and greater independence for women. To what extent has it been
[00:01:14] effective?
[00:01:17] Hello and welcome to this week's Reporters program.
[00:01:21] Recent reports from American media
[00:01:24] and research centers indicate a significant
[00:01:28] decrease in the reserves of some of the most important US missiles.
[00:01:30] in the war with Iran. Reuters, in an exclusive report, states that
[00:01:34] the US military has used a considerable portion
[00:01:38] of its long-range and precision missile reserves.
[00:01:41] The Center for Strategic and International
[00:01:45] Studies has also estimated that the reserves of missile defense
[00:01:48] systems in the US have severely decreased. But
[00:01:52] which missiles exactly has the US used, and could
[00:01:55] this issue affect Washington's military capability
[00:01:59] in future crises? Baran Abbasi has sought
[00:02:02] answers to these questions.
[00:02:04] Are US missile
[00:02:07] stockpiles running out?
[00:02:10] An exclusive Reuters report says the US
[00:02:13] military has used a significant portion of its stockpiles
[00:02:17] of certain types of long-range and precision
[00:02:20] missiles during the war with Iran. This is the moment a short-range
[00:02:24] surface-to-surface missile, known as the US Army's
[00:02:28] tactical missile, Three sources
[00:02:32] familiar with US arms stockpiles said that during
[00:02:35] the war with Iran, almost all of these missiles were used.
[00:02:39] The US Army is phasing out ATACMS missiles
[00:02:42] and gradually replacing them with newer missiles
[00:02:46] called PrSM, the launch of which is seen
[00:02:50] here. According to Reuters, the stockpiles
[00:02:53] of these missiles were initially limited due to their
[00:02:56] newness, and a significant portion of them has been used.
[00:03:00] These missiles are used for precise attacks on targets
[00:03:04] at very long distances, and the cost of each one
[00:03:08] is over $1 million. The reason for the reduction
[00:03:11] in these stockpiles, according to US sources, is that Donald Trump
[00:03:15] preferred to use these missiles instead of riskier options
[00:03:19] like sending manned bombers into Iranian airspace.
[00:03:22] However,
[00:03:24] the issue is not limited to surface-to-surface missiles.
[00:03:28] According to a Reuters source, the US has used about half
[00:03:32] of its Tomahawk cruise missile stockpiles
[00:03:36] since the war began. Tomahawk is a
[00:03:39] naval weapon and is usually launched from ships. It is
[00:03:43] one of the US's most important tools for attacking distant
[00:03:46] and heavily defended targets. However, the main concern
[00:03:50] might be related to defense systems. Last week, the Center
[00:03:54] for Strategic and International Studies estimated that from the
[00:03:58] beginning of the war in March
[00:04:00] about two-thirds of the US's Patriot interceptor missiles
[00:04:03] were also used. Also, the number of THAAD system
[00:04:06] missiles has decreased by 40 to 50 percent
[00:04:10] compared to the beginning of the war. Patriot and THAAD are used
[00:04:14] to detect and destroy incoming projectiles like
[00:04:17] ballistic missiles and are among the most important US
[00:04:21] defense systems. Of course, Washington denies reports
[00:04:25] about its arms stockpiles. The White House, in a statement
[00:04:29] quoting Donald Trump, said: "The US has more weapons
[00:04:32] than anyone else in the world, and much more than it needs.
[00:04:36] Our defense industry companies are currently producing more
[00:04:40] ammunition than ever before, and alongside that, they are
[00:04:43] expanding their factories and equipment at an unprecedented rate."
[00:04:47] However, American media say that warnings from Donald
[00:04:51] Trump's military advisors about the state of US
[00:04:55] arms stockpiles caused him to decide to halt attacks
[00:04:58] against Iran. Although he himself said he wants to give
[00:05:02] diplomacy another chance. But if reports about the depletion
[00:05:05] of arms stockpiles are true, it means that the US
[00:05:08] no longer has the capability to continue the war. Not necessarily.
[00:05:13] As Donald Trump has said, the US can produce these missiles again.
[00:05:17] Also, the Reuters report says the US
[00:05:20] military has gathered some of the weapons it needs from
[00:05:24] stockpiles it had in various parts of the world. However,
[00:05:28] analysts warn that the ability to replace these weapons
[00:05:31] might not be as fast as their consumption in a major
[00:05:35] war. Therefore, if the US gets involved
[00:05:38] in a full-scale war with Iran again, the depletion of these
[00:05:41] stockpiles could create a serious problem.
[00:05:45] For example, Donald Trump might be forced to order
[00:05:48] riskier operations involving American pilots.
[00:05:52] A bigger concern is that the US might get involved
[00:05:55] in a war with Russia or China simultaneously with the Iran
[00:05:59] war, and no longer have enough stockpiles to defend its forces and allies.
[00:06:03] This concern is not just about the number of missiles.
[00:06:06] Patriot and THAAD are crucial for defense against missile
[00:06:10] attacks. ATACMS, PrSM, and others also allow
[00:06:13] the US to target distant targets from a safe distance.
[00:06:17] Therefore, their extensive use could also affect
[00:06:20] the US's deterrence capability. And all of this seems
[00:06:24] to have made the most powerful military force in the US
[00:06:28] decide to strike a balance between three things: continuing
[00:06:31] operations against Iran, maintaining defensive
[00:06:34] capability against other threats, and rebuilding its arms
[00:06:38] stockpiles. Tensions between Iran and Ukraine
[00:06:42] escalated after Ukraine's recent attack on an Iranian ship
[00:06:45] in the Caspian Sea. Now, Mohsen Rezaei, military advisor
[00:06:49] to Iran's leader, has said that after this incident, the
[00:06:53] Islamic Republic intended to attack three points in Ukraine.
[00:06:56] Tehran is also unhappy with Ukraine's help
[00:06:59] to regional countries to repel Iranian drone attacks. Islamic
[00:07:03] Republic officials claim that Ukraine has also made
[00:07:07] an appearance in Iraq, according to them, for sabotage.
[00:07:10] Kyiv has also been angry about Iran's military support for Russia for years.
[00:07:14] Parham Ghobadi reports on the multi-layered conflict
[00:07:18] between Iran and Ukraine.
[00:07:20] Iran and Ukraine, two countries whose
[00:07:24] drone industry has gained global
[00:07:27] recognition, are now at odds. The victim
[00:07:31] is this young Iranian sailor, Nima Moradi.
[00:07:34] The child will be reunited with
[00:07:35] his mother.
[00:07:38] His body was buried yesterday in his hometown, Bandar Anzali.
[00:07:42] He was killed in a Ukrainian attack. According
[00:07:45] to Tehran, it was a commercial ship. But Volodymyr
[00:07:49] Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, has a different
[00:07:52] opinion. In long-range attacks in the waters of the Caspian
[00:07:55] Sea, we have achieved very good results. Specifically,
[00:07:57] these attacks targeted ships that were involved in transferring
[00:08:01] military cargo from Iran. Also, a warship.
[00:08:05] The New York Times, citing Iranian and Western sources,
[00:08:09] said that Tehran had prepared for a retaliatory attack
[00:08:12] on a Ukrainian port, but a wave of diplomatic
[00:08:16] efforts prevented it. It was not clear
[00:08:20] which port, but for example, the distance from Tabriz
[00:08:23] to the port of Odesa in Ukraine is about 1500
[00:08:27] kilometers, within reach of Iranian missiles.
[00:08:31] In any case, after the talks between the foreign ministers
[00:08:34] of Iran and Ukraine, it seemed that the tension had subsided.
[00:08:38] to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic says that the issue of Iran's retaliation
[00:08:43] is still pending. Because we had prepared to hit three points
[00:08:47] in Ukraine, but then they said we made a mistake.
[00:08:50] Since we are not really seeking war, we don't want to start
[00:08:53] a war. Now, the response to Ukraine has been ruled out, but we are
[00:08:57] investigating both issues. We'll see in Ukraine
[00:09:00] if what they say was a mistake, was indeed a mistake.
[00:09:04] If it was a mistake, there will be consequences.
[00:09:06] For
[00:09:10] years, Kyiv has said that Iranian drones fired
[00:09:13] by Russia are killing Ukrainians and destroying their homes.
[00:09:17] And it's not just drones. According to the US
[00:09:20] Department of Defense, Iran has also sent ballistic
[00:09:24] missiles to Russia. An accusation that Iran has rejected.
[00:09:28] Now Ukraine says that with the start of the US-Israel
[00:09:32] war with Iran, Moscow has come to Tehran's aid.
[00:09:34] I will order our intelligence agencies
[00:09:38] to share the information we have about new Russian
[00:09:42] aid to the Iranian regime with our allies. We have witnessed
[00:09:46] Russia conducting intensive satellite surveillance
[00:09:50] over the Persian Gulf countries and US military bases in the region.
[00:09:54] These satellite images were then provided to Iran.
[00:09:57] At the same time, there is clear coordination between Russian
[00:10:01] satellite images and Iranian attacks. Both before attacks to help
[00:10:05] plan operations, and after attacks to assess the extent of damage.
[00:10:08] However, Tehran's problem with Kyiv is not just Iran's military
[00:10:12] support for Russia. During the 40-day war and the start
[00:10:16] of Iranian attacks on countries in the Persian Gulf region,
[00:10:19] Volodymyr Zelensky went on a regional tour to help these countries.
[00:10:23] Ukraine has been able to build drones in these years
[00:10:27] that can hunt attacking drones instead of using expensive
[00:10:30] missiles. Now, Iran claims that
[00:10:34] Ukraine has military advisors throughout the region,
[00:10:38] including in Iraq, Iran's backyard. This is not a matter of
[00:10:42] popular mobilization units. There are cells
[00:10:45] linked to Ukraine. Now, Ukraine
[00:10:49] has stationed training teams in some countries in the
[00:10:51] region, including in northern Iraq, in the Emirates, in Bahrain,
[00:10:55] in Kuwait, in Saudi Arabia, in
[00:10:58] Syria. The excuse for this is that
[00:11:01] they want to set up training teams related to drones and so on.
[00:11:05] These have now been deployed. Even before the recent war,
[00:11:08] such meetings had angered the Islamic Republic.
[00:11:11] Despite these political alignments, the two
[00:11:15] sides have not yet clashed. But the danger
[00:11:18] exists. The danger of entangled wars,
[00:11:22] more actors getting involved, and the blurring of conflict
[00:11:25] lines from the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea
[00:11:29] to the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz,
[00:11:32] the Caspian Sea, and the Black Sea.
[00:11:36] Parham Ghobadi, BBC. Iranians today have a lower
[00:11:39] birth rate than 70 years ago. According to data from
[00:11:42] the Statistical Center of Iran, the birth rate in Iran
[00:11:46] has reached its lowest level in contemporary history.
[00:11:50] Studies show that the country's population grew rapidly
[00:11:53] before the revolution. The growth rate peaked
[00:11:57] in the late 1970s, but after that,
[00:12:01] except for a slight increase in the 1990s and 2000s,
[00:12:04] the birth rate declined sharply. What does the population
[00:12:07] growth chart of Iran in the last 70 years show?
[00:12:11] More details in a report by Siavash
[00:12:14] Ardalan.
[00:12:17] There was a time when Iranians gave birth to two and a half
[00:12:20] million babies in one year. Demographically,
[00:12:23] in the late 1970s, Iran was at its peak.
[00:12:26] As if with the start of the revolution, a wave of births
[00:12:30] began. Population growth had started in the 1960s,
[00:12:34] but it peaked in 1978 and reached its highest
[00:12:37] level in Iranian history in 1980.
[00:12:40] Compare that to today. Iran's population growth
[00:12:44] has reached its lowest level.
[00:12:47] With people engaged in war and sanctions,
[00:12:50] economic poverty and despair about the future,
[00:12:53] one cannot talk about having children. However,
[00:12:56] the reality is that the reason for population
[00:13:00] decline is not necessarily economic problems, but
[00:13:03] rather the lack of knowledge and tools
[00:13:07] for population control.
[00:13:10] Deprived provinces like Sistan and Baluchestan, South Khorasan,
[00:13:13] and Kerman have the highest birth rates in Iran.
[00:13:17] What has caused Iran, like many other countries
[00:13:20] in the world, to face a population crisis,
[00:13:24] is above all the rising level of literacy,
[00:13:27] the financial independence of women, and the development of urban culture.
[00:13:31] After the war with Iraq, and during the presidency
[00:13:34] of Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran launched a broad
[00:13:38] population control program and successfully implemented
[00:13:41] one of the most successful family planning projects.
[00:13:45] I believe in population growth. One of the rare instances
[00:13:49] where Ali Khamenei, the former leader of Iran, called it a wrong
[00:13:53] decision and even blamed himself.
[00:13:55] During Ahmadinejad's presidency, the tables turned and
[00:13:59] policies changed. From that time until the end
[00:14:02] of Ahmadinejad's term, the birth rate in Iran
[00:14:06] increased very gently. But since
[00:14:09] 2015, it has been
[00:14:11] in free fall. Today, Iran has a middle-aged
[00:14:15] population. In 30 years, one-third of Iran's
[00:14:18] total population will be elderly. Government experts
[00:14:21] predict that in 15 years,
[00:14:25] the country's population growth will become negative.
[00:14:27] UN experts say that negative growth
[00:14:31] will occur in another 35 years.
[00:14:33] In any case, Iran may
[00:14:37] one day see a population of 100 million people,
[00:14:41] but only for a short period and in an
[00:14:44] aging society. Like Japan, Russia,
[00:14:47] and European countries that are currently
[00:14:50] grappling with a population crisis.
[00:14:54] Siavash.
[00:14:57] The US President's remarks about canceling new
[00:15:01] attacks on Iran caused the global oil market to
[00:15:04] start last week with a price drop. The price of
[00:15:08] a barrel of North Sea Brent crude oil, which was
[00:15:11] around $91 at the end of trading last Friday,
[00:15:14] fell to about $83 last Monday.
[00:15:17] Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Ministry said that
[00:15:21] in negotiations with Oman, the country is seeking to
[00:15:25] create a single route in the Strait of Hormuz for
[00:15:29] commercial ships, which would replace the two northern
[00:15:32] and southern routes of recent months. Behrang
[00:15:35] Tajdin.
[00:15:37] Some of the largest oil producers in the Persian Gulf, such
[00:15:41] as Iraq, are facing problems with their exports. But
[00:15:44] the very fact that the US did not attack Iran caused the
[00:15:48] oil market to start the working week with a price
[00:15:51] drop. We saw that the headline
[00:15:55] of resuming negotiations caused oil prices to fall by about
[00:15:58] 6. We don't know where these talks will lead. This
[00:16:01] has become a weekly cycle, and oil prices only react
[00:16:05] to headlines, not
[00:16:15] the start of the US-Israel war with Iran, which has stopped.
[00:16:17] Efforts to create a safe passage
[00:16:21] for ships off the coast of Oman in the southern
[00:16:25] strait have been fruitless due to Iran's opposition
[00:16:29] and military threat. This was also contrary to
[00:16:32] Article 5 of the memorandum of understanding,
[00:16:35] and the route was unsafe and dangerous in terms
[00:16:38] of environmental issues, as well as the threat
[00:16:41] it posed to Iran's national security. Some of the ships
[00:16:45] that used this route were even carrying military equipment.
[00:16:49] Under the cover of these giant ships,
[00:16:52] some frigates were passing through. During
[00:16:55] this period, negotiations have focused on
[00:16:59] the southern route, which
[00:17:02] is a route that passes through the waters of Oman, and the northern
[00:17:05] route, which passes through
[00:17:08] the territorial waters of Iran, being converted
[00:17:11] into an intermediate route that will ensure
[00:17:14] the considerations and interests of every coastal
[00:17:17] state. Besides military attacks, the exorbitant
[00:17:21] cost of insurance and the issue of sanctions have also
[00:17:24] made the prospect of a quick reopening of Hormuz
[00:17:28] uncertain. Right now,
[00:17:31] even the discussion of the strait's traffic returning
[00:17:35] to pre-war levels is not on the table. The concern
[00:18:07] The insurance market is already involved and has sent a strong
[00:18:11] message to the shipping industry that paying
[00:18:14] fees to Iran will invalidate your insurance policy
[00:18:18] due to the risk of sanctions and paying money to a sanctioned
[00:18:21] entity. Meanwhile, the Frankfurt stock
[00:18:25] index, one of the world's largest stock markets,
[00:18:28] reached its highest historical figure. A sign
[00:18:32] that at least some financial markets are not
[00:18:36] as sensitive to the Iran war and the energy
[00:18:39] market crisis. Behrang Tajdin, BBC.
[00:18:42] In a few weeks, the United Nations
[00:18:45] will have to elect a new Secretary-General
[00:18:49] for a five-year term. Many say it is time
[00:18:53] for a woman to lead the organization for the first
[00:18:56] time. Bahman Kalbasi, our correspondent in New York,
[00:19:00] reports on the selection process and the competitors
[00:19:04] who have more time. It may
[00:19:37] take several weeks. First,
[00:19:41] each member state of the UN can nominate a candidate
[00:19:45] for this post. This
[00:19:48] time, fewer than 10 countries have nominated individuals.
[00:19:51] The expectation is that they will have a background in diplomacy
[00:19:55] and management of international institutions. Then,
[00:19:58] the Security Council will review the work experience
[00:20:02] and abilities of these individuals. Who will be the next UN Secretary-General
[00:20:06] will be decided here. At the venue of the Security
[00:20:09] Council meetings at the United Nations,
[00:20:13] these non-permanent members
[00:20:16] of the Council, 10 countries with white ballots,
[00:20:19] and the permanent members of Britain, Russia, China,
[00:20:22] the United States, and France with red ballots, will express
[00:20:26] their opinions on the six or seven individuals who have
[00:20:30] been nominated for Secretary-General. But it must be determined
[00:20:34] which of them has the best chance to both get the majority
[00:20:37] vote and not face opposition from any of the permanent
[00:20:41] members. This process will continue in this hall for several
[00:20:45] weeks until a nominee
[00:20:46] emerges.
[00:21:20] We have been accepted as an effective mediator. This is
[00:21:23] the role that the UN must
[00:21:25] play.
[00:21:33] The United Nations has had nine Secretaries-General
[00:21:36] to date, all men. These are their pictures
[00:21:40] on silk tapestries donated by Iran at one
[00:21:43] of the entrances to the UN headquarters in New York.
[00:21:46] Many countries believe that this time, a woman
[00:22:40] will be nominated for the General Assembly, where all
[00:22:43] countries have the right to vote. Although this last step is symbolic,
[00:22:47] as it is expected that representatives of most
[00:22:50] countries will vote in favor of the nominated
[00:22:53] individual.
[00:22:56] The tenth Secretary-General of the United Nations, who after
[00:22:59] his election will immediately face the super crises of ongoing
[00:23:03] wars, climate change, and questions about the
[00:23:06] functionality and effectiveness of the United Nations.
[00:23:10] Bahman Kalbasi, BBC New York.
[00:23:13] Misi was five months pregnant when she was told
[00:23:17] her baby had a rare condition. A condition in which some
[00:23:21] organs grow outside the fetus's body. This condition
[00:23:24] is called gastroschisis and is treatable. Although
[00:23:28] it usually requires several complex surgeries
[00:23:31] after birth. But the pioneering work of an
[00:23:35] international team of doctors in Texas allowed Misi's
[00:23:38] baby, Theo, to undergo surgery while still
[00:23:42] in the womb. See the report by Fergus Walsh,
[00:23:46] BBC Medical Editor.
[00:24:20] growing outside his stomach. It must have been a big shock
[00:24:23] for you. Yes, it was really terrible,
[00:24:27] wasn't it? Theo had gastroschisis,
[00:24:30] a condition that affects one in 3,000 babies
[00:24:33] born in Britain. This condition usually
[00:24:36] requires surgery after birth. But Misi was given the opportunity
[00:24:40] to have surgery during her
[00:24:41] pregnancy.
[00:24:46] The only problem was that this surgery was done in Texas, and we had to go to.
[00:27:15] Thank you for being with us. Until the next program, goodbye.
[00:29:53] This is BBC Persian Radio.
[00:29:56] Jahan Nama, a live look at the most important news
[00:29:59] and events in Iran and the world.
[00:30:09] Stay with us for the latest developments
[00:30:11] in
[00:30:16] Jahan Nama with
[00:30:18] you.
[00:30:23] This is London, BBC Radio. 8 PM Tehran.
[00:30:26] Headlines: Pezeshkian defends negotiation
[00:30:30] for a desirable agreement. Iran says the reopening
[00:30:33] of the Strait of Hormuz requires America's
[00:30:36] acceptance of its conditions. Reports of a warning
[00:30:39] from the highest US military official about the Iran
[00:30:42] war. General Kin told Trump's advisors that a way
[00:30:46] out of this war must be found. In today's program, we ask:
[00:30:49] What was America's initial plan to exit this war?
[00:30:53] What impact do such warnings have on the view of Iranian
[00:30:57] military officials regarding