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[00:00:00] Those destroy other marine like species. They also
[00:00:03] him generally cause significant damage to the ship itself and the shipping industry. Siavash Ardalan has a report on this matter. Amidst the war between Iran and the US over the control of the Strait of Hormuz, a common and silent enemy is being created beneath these waters. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz means the stoppage and immobilization of hundreds of ships in the region's waters, and this is a law for the growth and proliferation of invasive species that cling to the hulls of ships. In the shipping industry, these organisms are known as biofouling or bioaccumulators. A costly nuisance for shipping, both commercial, recreational, and military. The journal Biological Invasions, in its research, described this issue as a huge threat to global biosecurity. Where is the problem? Bioaccumulators are not just harmless invertebrates that are easily removed from the ship's hull. When they settle on the surface of a ship, they rapidly multiply and turn every ship into a carrier of all kinds of microbes and various bacteria that can destroy the native species of any region. When these invasive species themselves, such as black mussels, microscopic algae, and marine ascidians, detach from the ship's hull, they quickly tighten their grip on the ecosystem for other species. With the prolonged immobility of ships in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, the primary danger is to the ecosystem of these waters, and when these ships are moved to other parts of the world, they bring the same disaster to other ecosystems. But this is not just an environmental issue. The shipping industry spends 30 to 50 billion dollars annually to combat marine biofouling. These invasive species not only damage ship engines, but also cause ships to consume up to 40% more fuel for movement, and more fuel consumption means more water and atmospheric pollution and more greenhouse gas accumulation. Other costs are related to cleaning the hull surface of ships. This cleaning requires toxic biocides. Efforts are being made to prevent these toxins, along with ship paints, from entering the water during cleaning. In Persian Gulf ports, like many other ports around the world, these wastes are not collected. Perhaps with new agreements between the warring countries, ships will soon be able to move, but the consequences of their immobility have not been without cost. Part of the tolls that Iran and Oman are trying to collect from ship traffic is supposed to be spent on addressing the environmental issues of the region's waters. Siavash Ardalan, BBC. Let's conclude the program with the live images we have from the Strait of Hormuz, where you can see that all the conflicts of this war are now confined here. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, and there is no traffic. The US and other countries want this strait to be reopened due to the many economic and military losses incurred, but no results have been achieved yet, and it seems that new conditions are also on the table. We have reached the end of this 60-minute program. You can also watch this program and our previous programs on the BBC Persian website and YouTube. Thank you for accompanying us on this program. The author of the best-selling book "Resilience" tells us how we can increase our resilience and ability to cope in unfavorable life situations. Never make someone your priority if you are just one of their options. When someone gives you their anger and insults, it's up to you whether you accept that anger and insults and hold onto those bad feelings, or leave them with the person who gave them to you. Designate a place in your surroundings as a sanctuary, a peaceful place. Take some time for yourself to just relax and calm your mind. 37 degrees, Wednesdays on BBC Persian. Headlines. Progress in Iran-Oman negotiations on Strait of Hormuz routes, alongside new attacks on ships. Tehran says reopening this waterway requires US acceptance of its conditions. Reports of warnings from the US Joint Chiefs of Staff to Trump's advisors. Duncan said a way out of the war with Iran must be found. Pressure of war, sanctions, and naval blockade on Iran's already exhausted economy. Pezeshkian. view negotiations with the Islamic
[00:00:06] Republic with pessimism and believe that
[00:00:09] a military confrontation with
[00:00:12] full force should
[00:00:15] be pursued. Thank you, my colleague
[00:00:18] Shida Hooshmandi, who was with us from Washington. But
[00:00:22] we have live images from the Strait of Hormuz, where you
[00:00:25] can now see that, practically speaking, the number of vessels and
[00:00:29] tankers passing through this strait is almost
[00:00:33] negligible. Iran and Oman have been
[00:00:36] negotiating for days over a mechanism
[00:00:40] to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but now Iran
[00:00:43] has put new conditions on
[00:00:47] the table. As Mohammad Bagher Zolqadr,
[00:00:50] Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, stated in
[00:00:54] his statement, he has set conditions that are
[00:00:58] somewhat similar to Pakistan's memorandum of understanding,
[00:01:01] but more painful. He states that America
[00:01:04] must also end the war against Iran's allies
[00:01:08] in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq, and it is unclear whether the other side
[00:01:12] will accept these conditions or not. Jonathan Hackert,
[00:01:15] former intelligence officer of the US Marine
[00:01:19] Corps and author of the book
[00:01:22] "Iran's Shadow Weapons: Covert Actions, Intelligence
[00:01:25] Operations, and Unconventional Warfare" joined
[00:01:28] us from Washington. Welcome. Mr. Hakett,
[00:01:32] Mr. Vance, on one hand, talks about
[00:01:35] not trusting Iran and Iran's
[00:01:38] promises, but we have heard repeatedly from various
[00:01:42] US officials in recent days that negotiations
[00:01:45] are coming to a conclusion and will be announced today or tomorrow. Under
[00:01:49] these circumstances, is there any hope that this
[00:01:52] agreement will succeed?
[00:02:00] There is hope that this agreement will finally
[00:02:03] yield a positive outcome. However,
[00:02:06] the pressures created by the oil
[00:02:10] crisis cannot be ignored. With rising
[00:02:14] oil prices, the pressure will increase. When
[00:02:17] oil prices fall, both sides will eventually
[00:02:20] pay less attention to this issue. Today, we
[00:02:24] are witnessing the Iranian side once again raising
[00:02:28] new conditions, such as
[00:02:34] those very similar to Pakistan's memorandum of
[00:02:38] understanding, even with additional
[00:02:41] clauses. If Iran wants to add
[00:02:45] its conditions, will
[00:02:45] America be willing
[00:02:53] to accept them? America has, in a way, tied its
[00:02:57] own hands in these negotiations.
[00:03:00] The Iranian government, I mean, clearly
[00:03:03] stated at the beginning what it wanted from this war. It
[00:03:06] had stated its demands for
[00:03:10] a return to the pre-war stability. But
[00:03:13] the United States, on the contrary,
[00:03:16] has constantly changed its stance
[00:03:19] both publicly and privately,
[00:03:23] depending on the daily situation and what
[00:03:26] it is pursuing. That is why it is very strange that if
[00:03:49] they find an exit strategy for America
[00:03:53] to exit the war, what is this exit strategy? How does America want
[00:03:56] to exit this war? Even now, it has pursued various
[00:04:00] paths and failed.
[00:04:06] General Keane has a specific task, which
[00:04:10] is to advise the US President on military matters. He
[00:04:13] is now carrying out his duties. The question is
[00:04:17] whether the US President is willing
[00:04:20] to listen to his advice, instead of the
[00:04:24] advice of others, like the head of the CIA
[00:04:28] or JD Vance or his Secretary
[00:04:31] of State. The problem is that this
[00:04:34] war cannot end with a military conclusion. Perhaps
[00:04:38] it needs a diplomatic solution. I think
[00:04:41] General Keane is also looking for this,
[00:04:45] that this war does not end with a military
[00:04:48] issue and takes on a diplomatic
[00:04:51] ending. How likely is it that Donald
[00:04:54] Trump will accept his recommendation and not
[00:04:58] inadvertently enter another
[00:05:00] war again?
[00:05:05] Well, there is an issue that needs to be
[00:05:08] considered, which is very important, and that
[00:05:12] is how much military force,
[00:05:15] equipment, ships, and fighter jets America has
[00:05:19] if it wants to restart this war. America
[00:05:22] might want to start the war, but it
[00:05:26] probably won't be able to enter the war with
[00:05:30] the same capabilities it had at the beginning of the war, because
[00:05:34] it also needs to pay attention to China and
[00:05:37] the war between Russia and Ukraine. It needs to think about
[00:05:40] how much of its weapons and capabilities it wants to use against
[00:05:44] Iran. Because then, in connection with China and
[00:05:48] Russia, it won't be able to do anything, because
[00:05:52] those countries are much stronger than Iran militarily.
[00:05:56] If the CNN report is correct about
[00:05:59] General Dunford's concerns, does this mean that
[00:06:03] at least a part of Donald Trump's administration has accepted
[00:06:06] that its military strategy has failed
[00:06:09] and is not working?
[00:06:18] The US President hears various
[00:06:21] ideas and recommendations from different
[00:06:24] people, and General Keane's recommendations are
[00:06:28] one of the things he hears. The problem is that
[00:06:32] a general cannot make policy. Even
[00:06:35] if he tells the US President that this war is not a good idea,
[00:06:39] the President can ignore him and say, "No, continue the war." That's why, despite all the advice
[00:06:52] that the military side has given him, it is up to the President, who is the commander-in-chief, to decide what he will do, and that also depends on what they will tell the President and whether the President values their words more or
[00:06:55] not. One of the points mentioned
[00:06:59] in this report was that attacks could
[00:07:03] be effective if they were widespread and carried
[00:07:06] out on the ground. This is happening at a
[00:07:10] time when reports indicate that the US
[00:07:13] is facing challenges in supplying its
[00:07:17] weapons. Do you think it will come to a
[00:07:20] point where the US is forced to launch
[00:07:33] broader attacks, including a ground invasion?
[00:07:36] If America is truly seeking a military
[00:07:40] solution to this war, it must deploy
[00:07:44] at least 300 to 400 thousand troops
[00:07:48] into Iranian territory to advance and achieve
[00:07:51] military successes. I believe such an option
[00:07:55] is not desirable for the US President,
[00:07:58] nor for the American people, especially considering
[00:08:02] that we are on the verge of the November midterm
[00:08:05] elections in the US. Many people around
[00:08:08] the President also advise him not to do this.
[00:08:12] Some analysts suggest that Iran intends
[00:08:16] to continue the process it is undergoing,
[00:08:20] meaning the ongoing negotiations that are yielding
[00:08:24] no results, until the midterm elections,
[00:08:27] and even if an initial agreement
[00:08:30] is reached, to continue it for the next
[00:08:33] phase until after the US midterm
[00:08:37] elections, after which they can bring about
[00:08:41] change. How accurate
[00:08:48] is this argument? The Iranian government has
[00:08:51] shown from the beginning of the war
[00:08:53] that the war, in addition to the military
[00:08:57] domain, also has an intelligence
[00:09:00] domain. And Iran is
[00:09:03] well aware that the American people
[00:09:07] play a decisive role in this war. What
[00:09:11] feelings they have towards this war is decisive.
[00:09:15] What the Iranian government can do is
[00:09:18] to prolong this war until November and the midterm
[00:09:22] elections and constantly push negotiations into a phase
[00:09:26] that drags on, because they know that the American
[00:09:29] people are not happy with the continuation
[00:09:32] of the war, and if American forces enter the arena and
[00:09:36] American soldiers are killed on Iranian soil,
[00:09:39] then the opposition of the American people
[00:09:43] will double. Jonathan Hackert, former intelligence officer
[00:09:47] of the US Marine Corps, thank you for being
[00:09:51] on the program. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and
[00:09:54] Pakistan signed a defense pact yesterday
[00:09:58] in Mecca, stating that an attack on one of
[00:10:01] these three countries would be considered an attack
[00:10:05] on all of them. A pact described as the Islamic
[00:10:09] NATO. They say that this defense pact is not
[00:10:13] against any specific country. However, hardliners
[00:10:16] in Iran have said that Iran and the Yemeni
[00:10:20] Houthis are the targets. Just today, at least
[00:10:23] 10 people were killed
[00:10:45] in a Houthi attack on the city of Ma'rib in
[00:10:49] Yemen. In a region where conflict has
[00:10:52] spread from the Strait of Hormuz to Bab
[00:10:55] al-Mandab, what does this agreement mean
[00:10:59] for Iran and its allies? Parham Ghobadi
[00:11:02] went to investigate this question. The moment
[00:11:05] of the birth of the Islamic NATO. Saudi
[00:11:09] Arabia is the largest oil exporter and
[00:11:13] very wealthy, and Pakistan is the only
[00:11:17] Muslim country that has nuclear bombs. Is
[00:11:20] this the Sunni resistance axis after the decline of the Shiite crescent
[00:11:26] led by Iran in the region? Although Turkey
[00:11:29] and Saudi Arabia said it is not against
[00:11:33] any specific country, Tehran has received the
[00:11:37] message, especially the hardliners. Now,
[00:11:40] in regional disputes, they quickly want to
[00:11:44] form an axis and a defense pact,
[00:11:47] and a tenth of these actions that they
[00:11:51] are currently taking in competition with the
[00:11:55] resistance front axis, whose spearhead has
[00:11:58] always been directed towards Israel and
[00:12:02] aggressive America, when will it turn towards
[00:12:05] domestic issues and Hossein Shariatmadari,
[00:12:09] editor-in-chief of Keyhan newspaper, who was
[00:12:12] appointed by the former leader of the Islamic
[00:12:16] Republic, expressed his anger today in an
[00:12:20] article, especially towards Pakistan. He
[00:12:23] criticized the country's
[00:12:26] Prime Minister and said that he once described
[00:12:30] Donald Trump as an honorable man. He
[00:12:33] then said that the Mecca defense
[00:12:36] pact is against Iran and that
[00:12:40] the pretext of protecting the security of Bab
[00:12:43] al-Mandab targets the Yemeni Houthis,
[00:12:46] which ultimately is against Iran.
[00:12:50] In the end, he concluded that Pakistan,
[00:12:53] with this identity,
[00:12:55] is not worthy of mediating between Tehran
[00:12:59] and Washington. The military relations between
[00:13:02] Riyadh and Islamabad are not new. Thirteen
[00:13:05] years ago, the BBC revealed that Saudi
[00:13:08] Arabia had ordered nuclear bombs from
[00:13:11] Pakistan. Various sources told the BBC that
[00:13:14] Saudi Arabia had invested in Pakistan's
[00:13:18] nuclear weapons program and believed that it
[00:13:22] could receive nuclear warheads whenever it
[00:13:26] wanted. In the 1980s, it also bought
[00:13:29] missiles from China with a range of
[00:13:32] 2,500 to 3,000 kilometers and the
[00:13:35] capability to carry nuclear warheads. The
[00:13:39] closure of the Strait of Hormuz did not
[00:13:42] significantly harm Saudi Arabia because it
[00:13:46] exported its oil through the Red Sea.
[00:13:49] In recent weeks, Iranian-backed Houthis
[00:13:53] closed Bab al-Mandab to Saudi ships.
[00:13:56] Today, in Yemen, the Houthis attacked
[00:14:00] the positions of the country's official
[00:14:02] government, which is supported by Saudi Arabia.
[00:14:06] According to the Yemeni government, they are
[00:14:09] engaged in several fronts. The proxy
[00:14:12] war between Iran and Saudi Arabia
[00:14:16] on Yemeni soil.
[00:14:17] Bloody clashes
[00:14:20] while the ink on the Mecca
[00:14:24] agreement is not yet dry. Serious
[00:14:28] questions and ambiguities are raised about
[00:14:31] the effectiveness of this military pact.
[00:14:35] For example, if Iran and its
[00:14:39] supported groups attack Saudi Arabia, will
[00:14:42] Pakistan and Turkey intervene militarily?
[00:14:45] On the other hand, if Pakistan
[00:14:48] and India get into a conflict,
[00:14:52] will Turkey and Saudi Arabia enter
[00:15:03] the fray? If the answer to these
[00:15:07] questions is yes, in a volatile
[00:15:10] region like the
[00:15:11] Middle East, will
[00:15:14] this military pact create deterrence or
[00:15:17] exacerbate tensions? Another important
[00:15:21] question is whether other countries in
[00:15:24] the region are also expected to
[00:15:27] join this Mecca military pact or
[00:15:31] not, especially those that were targeted
[00:15:34] by Iranian missiles in the recent
[00:15:37] war? Does this mean the formation
[00:15:41] of a regional alliance against Iran?
[00:15:45] Is the Islamic NATO a product
[00:15:49] of the success of the Islamic Republic's
[00:15:52] regional policies or their failure?
[00:15:56] Parham Ghobadi, BBC.
[00:16:00] I had a conversation with Kamran Bukhari,
[00:16:03] strategic affairs analyst and senior
[00:16:37] researcher at the Middle East Policy Council think tank,
[00:16:41] and I asked him if we
[00:16:45] are witnessing a new security architecture.
[00:16:48] Thank you for inviting me. Yes,
[00:16:52] all these discussions are about, as
[00:16:55] you mentioned, a new security architecture
[00:16:58] in the region. All of this is linked
[00:17:02] to America's doctrinal strategy. Now, based
[00:17:06] on the discussion of burden-sharing, as
[00:17:09] we also saw in Ukraine, Europe
[00:17:12] has been asked to bear the
[00:17:16] responsibility for many security issues. Now,
[00:17:20] in the Middle East, we are
[00:17:23] seeing the same thing. Turkey, Saudi
[00:17:27] Arabia, and Turkey have been asked
[00:17:31] to bear the burden of this
[00:17:34] security responsibility. Given the complexities
[00:17:38] that the countries of the region
[00:17:42] have, and even these three countries
[00:17:46] in their relations with each other,
[00:17:49] are we witnessing this process taking
[00:17:53] shape? I think we're
[00:17:56] straying a little bit from these
[00:17:59] realistic discussions and analyzing too
[00:18:03] hastily. The Islamic world is a
[00:18:07] very large world, and this
[00:18:11] region is a very small
[00:18:14] region called
[00:18:17] the Middle East or West
[00:18:21] Asia, a region full of chaos
[00:18:24] and turmoil. Each of the three
[00:18:27] countries has many disagreements among
[00:18:31] themselves that they need to resolve.
[00:18:35] In addition to all this, they
[00:18:38] need to work with Israel, because
[00:18:42] Israel is a major force in
[00:18:45] the region. Then they need to
[00:18:49] manage Iran, an Iran that
[00:18:52] is itself currently in a state
[00:18:56] of uncertainty. We don't know what
[00:18:59] will happen to the Iranian regime.
[00:19:03] Will we see long-term chaos in
[00:19:06] Iran? Will we see more
[00:19:10] stability? It's unclear. But
[00:19:14] in the final analysis.
[00:19:18] This issue has been worked on
[00:19:21] for a long time. The US
[00:19:24] has finally changed its strategic
[00:19:28] position for some time now.
[00:19:31] It was not limited to the
[00:19:35] Trump administration; it also dates
[00:19:39] back to the Biden administration. We
[00:19:43] gradually moved towards this point.
[00:19:46] The new US national security
[00:19:49] strategy, which was published on September
[00:19:53] 5th, and then another one on
[00:19:57] January 23rd under the title
[00:20:01] of defense security, stated
[00:20:04] in all these documents that the
[00:20:11] US wants to distance itself from ground wars and ground conflicts in East Asia and not expose itself to the economic damage associated with these wars, and it wants its allies, especially its Arab allies in the region, to do this. This stems from that issue.
[00:20:14] Did the war between Iran and
[00:20:18] the US and Israel accelerate
[00:20:21] this process? Yes, it certainly
[00:20:24] did, but I don't think it
[00:20:28] was the driving force or the
[00:20:31] cause of this
[00:20:33] issue. The disagreements
[00:20:37] between Israel and Turkey were also
[00:20:40] not the main cause, but this
[00:20:43] also had some impact on the
[00:20:47] issue. However, regarding what you
[00:20:50] mentioned about the US, the US
[00:20:54] is currently more involved in the
[00:20:57] region than ever before, and it
[00:21:01] still seems that due to its
[00:21:04] position regarding the war with
[00:21:07] Iran, it is forced to remain
[00:21:10] in the region. And even now,
[00:21:13] it has bases in countries in
[00:21:17] the region, including Saudi Arabia. Therefore,
[00:21:20] perhaps this tripartite pact will be
[00:21:24] interpreted as these countries gradually
[00:21:27] wanting to distance themselves from the
[00:21:31] US. There will be
[00:21:35] no distance between these countries and
[00:21:38] the US. These are close allies
[00:21:41] of the US. Pakistan was one
[00:21:45] of the countries that mediated between
[00:21:49] the US and Iran. Saudi
[00:21:51] Arabia is a
[00:21:54] close ally of the US. Turkey
[00:21:57] is also a part of NATO.
[00:22:01] There is no intention to create
[00:22:04] any distance between them. What you
[00:22:08] are saying about the US needing
[00:22:12] to remain in the region is not that the
[00:22:15] US will suddenly completely withdraw from
[00:22:19] the region. This is a process,
[00:22:22] a gradual process. When
[00:22:25] these countries take on more responsibilities
[00:22:29] for regional stability and security,
[00:22:33] the US will gradually reduce
[00:22:36] its presence in the region. This
[00:22:39] will be a managed process,
[00:22:42] not an overnight one. As
[00:22:57] and the US and American bases
[00:23:01] are concerned, the US did not
[00:23:04] think that these bases would be
[00:23:08] targeted by Iranian attacks. After all,
[00:23:11] these military bases are part of
[00:23:15] the past security and military architecture
[00:23:19] of the US in the region. In this
[00:23:23] era where we are entering the
[00:23:26] era of drones
[00:23:28] and artificial intelligence and new military
[00:23:31] equipment, we will witness new military
[00:23:35] strategies that are no longer solely
[00:23:39] reliant on physical military bases.
[00:23:42] I think we will witness a
[00:23:46] much larger shift than simply the
[00:23:50] conclusion of a security and defense
[00:23:52] pact between three countries. You referred
[00:23:56] to the position of each of
[00:23:58] these three countries, but when they
[00:24:01] are in a situation where they
[00:24:04] have to implement what they have
[00:24:08] put on paper, how do you
[00:24:12] think they can do that? What
[00:24:15] will their effectiveness be, especially
[00:24:19] since there are concerns right now?
[00:24:22] For example, we are witnessing Houthi
[00:24:26] attacks on Saudi Arabia increasing.
[00:24:29] And will this not create a
[00:24:33] problem where these countries, for example,
[00:24:36] the groups supported by Iran, will
[00:24:40] perceive that Turkey and Pakistan have
[00:24:43] also become part of this front
[00:24:47] and will expand their attacks?
[00:24:51] I think all these actors are
[00:24:53] well aware that they should not
[00:24:57] stand against such an alliance or
[00:25:00] pact. The fact that the Houthis
[00:25:04] are separately attacking some Saudi Arabian
[00:25:07] resources, well, this has a cost,
[00:25:11] and the Houthis are also ready
[00:25:14] to bear these costs. They have
[00:25:17] accepted them in the past. But
[00:25:20] now that Pakistan and Turkey are
[00:25:24] entering the scene, of course, it's
[00:25:27] not something that we say will happen
[00:25:31] tomorrow. It will take a long
[00:25:34] time to be implemented. However,
[00:25:38] if Iran wants to use its
[00:25:42] Shiite militias or the Houthis
[00:25:45] to do something, this is a
[00:25:48] bit inaccurate, because you cannot
[00:25:52] equate them with Hezbollah, because
[00:25:55] necessarily, none of them want
[00:25:59] to fight both Israel and the
[00:26:02] US, as well as Saudi
[00:26:05] Arabia and Turkey simultaneously. Do
[00:26:09] you think that Iran should change
[00:26:12] its security strategy, especially since we
[00:26:16] witnessed today that some media and
[00:26:20] some officials in Iran reacted negatively
[00:26:23] to it? For example, one
[00:26:27] member of parliament said that this
[00:26:31] will not bring security to Riyadh.
[00:26:34] Of course, Iranians are known for
[00:26:38] their intelligence operations. They spent 40
[00:26:41] years strengthening these types of
[00:26:45] intelligence and information distortion operations. I
[00:26:48] don't pay much attention to these
[00:26:51] words and issues.
[00:30:22] a major environmental threat that the
[00:30:26] closure of the Strait of Hormuz
[00:30:29] poses to the ecosystem of the
[00:30:33] Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman,
[00:30:36] and other parts
[00:30:37] of the world.
[00:30:40] According to them, invasive species of
[00:30:44] marine life cling to the hull
[00:30:48] of any ship
[00:30:50] that remains motionless
[00:30:52] in the water. These not only
[00:30:56] are difficult to remove but also