BBCPERSIAN — broadcast
20261102 013000 UTC
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[00:00:22] We still have to take care of one or two more sites, but we can do that
[00:00:26] in 10 minutes. Just 10 minutes. We have a plan
[00:00:30] for that too. We probably need to look at the Kulang
[00:00:33] Mountain facility. We can do all this very quickly.
[00:00:37] Marathon of Iran talks
[00:00:41] by Qatari mediators in Tehran and now in Doha.
[00:00:44] Trump says he is satisfied with the progress of the talks
[00:00:48] but does not trust Tehran. We ask a former US Department of Defense official
[00:00:52] whether negotiations or even the resumption of hostilities
[00:00:55] can break the current strategic stalemate between
[00:00:59] the two countries. The key role of Middle Eastern
[00:01:02] countries in Iran and the US exiting the crisis. A look
[00:01:06] at the mediators' efforts and the search for a way out
[00:01:09] of a war that has also engulfed the Arabs.
[00:01:12] We ask a Middle East affairs analyst
[00:01:16] what potential events the region is on the verge of
[00:01:19] and what conditions
[00:01:27] political divide in the US, analysis of the consequences
[00:01:31] of the Iran war on Trump's support base two days before
[00:01:34] the congressional
[00:01:35] elections.
[00:01:40] From handling weapons to collecting public information, in Iranian
[00:01:44] school curricula, with the increase in Basij activities, concerns
[00:01:48] about the securitization of children's education have
[00:01:51] risen.
[00:01:57] And the end of the World Freestyle Wrestling
[00:02:00] Championships. Iran finished third with two golds, one silver, and three bronzes.
[00:02:26] of Iran and Qatar continued for the third consecutive day.
[00:02:30] Part of diplomatic efforts to find a way to prevent
[00:02:34] another round of conflict between Tehran and Washington.
[00:02:38] US President Donald Trump called these talks constructive,
[00:02:41] but at the same time said he does not trust Iranian
[00:02:45] officials and has not yet decided on resuming
[00:02:47] attacks. In Tehran, the tone of officials regarding
[00:02:51] the outlook of these negotiations does not seem very optimistic.
[00:02:55] They warned that any new US attack would be met
[00:02:59] with a fierce and different response than in the past. Can
[00:03:02] the mediation of regional countries get the two sides out of the current
[00:03:06] stalemate and prevent the war from flaring
[00:03:18] from Washington, threats of new
[00:03:21] attacks, and from Tehran, a warning of a severe
[00:03:24] reaction if the enemy
[00:03:27] makes another mistake. With terrible
[00:03:30] blows and with a glorious defense,
[00:03:34] God willing, we will bring this historical period
[00:03:37] to an end. In the narrative of Iranian military
[00:03:40] officials, this country has so far won the war and still
[00:03:44] has high defensive capabilities.
[00:03:47] But Donald Trump claims that Iran's nuclear facilities
[00:03:51] are out of order and that it only takes a few
[00:03:54] minutes to attack the remaining
[00:03:56] sites.
[00:04:00] We are not in a hurry because we have destroyed their navy,
[00:04:03] we have destroyed their air force, and we have also
[00:04:06] destroyed their air defense systems. We have practically
[00:04:10] incapacitated all their military equipment. We have destroyed
[00:04:13] a large part of their production capacity. We have destroyed
[00:04:17] their nuclear program and nuclear facilities. We still have to
[00:04:20] take care of one or two more sites, but we can do that in 10 minutes.
[00:04:24] Just 10 minutes. We have a plan for that too.
[00:04:28] We probably need to look at
[00:04:38] Iranian military officials, following an order attributed
[00:04:42] to Mojtaba Khamenei, have spoken of an immediate
[00:04:45] response to threats and a change in the geography of conflicts.
[00:04:49] To respond to the US, even outside West Asia, we are fully prepared,
[00:04:53] and any potential future war could be far
[00:04:56] longer than the last war. Impactful and without limits.
[00:05:42] If not, we should be worried about the worst. I hope a diplomatic breakthrough
[00:05:46] is achieved before then. We in the UAE and
[00:05:49] Gulf countries do not want to witness a new round of confrontations
[00:05:53] in the region. However, amidst these open threats,
[00:05:57] Reuters reported on Iran's negotiations
[00:06:00] with Qatari mediation in Doha to end
[00:06:03] the crisis in the Persian Gulf. Talks whose
[00:06:07] details are not clear. Iran's foreign
[00:06:10] minister also said: there will be no meeting with the American
[00:06:13] delegation and consultations continue through a mediator, but
[00:06:17] no results have been achieved yet. I have not
[00:06:20] yet responded to this letter. Earlier, the Secretary of Iran's
[00:06:23] National Security Council had announced receiving a letter from Washington
[00:06:27] and a change in the Americans' tone, and evaluated it as a positive
[00:06:31] sign. The US President also
[00:06:34] recently said he has a positive view of the negotiations,
[00:06:38] although he expressed doubts about the honesty
[00:06:41] of Iranian officials.
[00:06:45] The negotiation process with Iran is currently going well, but the main
[00:06:49] problem is that they are not trustworthy.
[00:06:53] For a long time, both sides have claimed victory in a war that
[00:06:56] has not yet reached a conclusion, and behind their public
[00:07:00] stances, unofficial contacts and negotiations continue.
[00:07:04] But it is the people who pay the cost of war, pressure,
[00:07:07] and uncertainty.
[00:07:30] consecutive day, with Iranians and Qataris negotiating there. It seems
[00:07:34] that these negotiations are taking place with the green
[00:07:37] light from the US. Mr. Trump also says these negotiations have been constructive,
[00:07:41] but at the same time says there are a few other places left, a few nuclear sites
[00:07:44] that we need to hit, and in any case,
[00:07:47] while he makes positive comments about those negotiations,
[00:07:51] he talks about targeting other sites in Iran.
[00:07:55] What is your interpretation of his words and the ongoing
[00:07:58] negotiations?
[00:08:04] Yes, I think this is one of those really
[00:08:07] strange moments where President Trump is doing things
[00:08:11] right. We have four teachers.
[00:08:42] I think he is giving an urgency to this issue
[00:08:46] that it needs to have. I would be surprised,
[00:08:48] it would be unexpected for me if the US
[00:08:52] were to launch a military attack against
[00:08:55] Iran in the next day or two, despite these
[00:08:59] talks. But now, maybe it will happen
[00:09:03] sooner, in these two days, considering that Iran, for example, might
[00:09:06] think that in these two days, during the time
[00:09:10] these talks are happening.
[00:09:42] and contradictions. That community that supports
[00:09:46] Donald Trump has now , in any case, asserted
[00:09:49] itself in its positions. You either like Trump or you dislike him. In this election,
[00:09:53] Trump's supporters are divided
[00:09:56] into two groups: those nationalist
[00:10:00] groups who think that when the war started,
[00:10:03] President Trump should not have ended the war, he should have
[00:10:06] finished the job, and those who are isolationists and do not want the US
[00:10:10] to get involved in this war. Donald Trump
[00:10:14] into account, but in any case, Donald Trump sees himself as a top negotiator.
[00:10:18] He sees himself as very skilled in this area, and he sees
[00:10:22] himself as an expert in this area, and in any case, he is a good
[00:10:37] negotiator for how complex a problem I was able to solve. Foreign Affairs, in an article,
[00:10:41] stated that both the US and Iran have reached a strategic
[00:10:45] stalemate. Neither
[00:10:48] has a very clear way out of
[00:10:51] the current situation, and
[00:10:55] one of the only solutions they see, and in their opinion, this is the only
[00:10:59] accessible solution, is that
[00:11:02] these regional countries, that is, the Arab countries bordering
[00:11:06] the Persian Gulf, can find a solution. On the one
[00:11:10] hand, they would release those funds to Iran and
[00:11:13] help Iran achieve its goal, something Washington cannot do, and on
[00:11:17] the other hand, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz. Do you think
[00:11:21] this will solve the problem or are the conditions more complex than this?
[00:11:32] I think that, in any case,
[00:11:35] both sides will have to make concessions of this
[00:11:39] kind. This is inevitable. However, these diplomatic
[00:11:42] positions and diplomatic lines have become very firmly
[00:11:46] established in the negotiations. But Iran's
[00:11:50] dire economic situation is not something
[00:11:53] that can be denied. The situation.
[00:12:30] Some other things, for example, guaranteeing freedom of navigation in international waters, or
[00:12:34] for example, progress in Iran's nuclear programs, or Iran's connection
[00:12:38] with proxy groups, or regarding Iran's missiles and
[00:12:41] drones, as a final question, in a part of your first answer,
[00:12:45] you said
[00:12:48] that you would be surprised if the US
[00:12:51] were to resume an attack in Iran in the next few days.
[00:12:55] While earlier, many analysts said that the US
[00:12:59] and Mr. Trump are waiting for these elections to end, and these
[00:13:02] elections will be held this week.
[00:13:05] What is the reason for what you said? Do you
[00:13:09] think their opinion might have changed by now?
[00:13:13] I don't know if they will
[00:13:19] attack before the elections. I said
[00:13:22] if they do, I won't be surprised.
[00:13:25] Anyway, they want to keep the surprise
[00:13:29] factor. If I said I won't attack before the elections,
[00:13:33] I will attack before the elections to surprise the Iranians,
[00:13:36] so that its shock value against the Iranians
[00:13:39] increases, especially attacks that target, for example,
[00:13:43] the Revolutionary Guard, because if they happen before the elections,
[00:13:47] they will be more effective politically,
[00:13:50] I think.
[00:13:53] Supporters of Donald
[00:14:25] As we said, diplomatic efforts in Doha, Qatar
[00:14:28] are still ongoing at the level of deputy foreign ministers.
[00:14:32] These are live images from the Strait of Hormuz,
[00:14:36] where the US government has repeatedly claimed
[00:14:40] that it is fully open, but as you can see in the images,
[00:14:43] it still cannot be said
[00:14:46] that this strait is fully open.
[00:14:50] I previously mentioned that an article
[00:14:53] was published in Foreign Affairs, in which the only
[00:14:57] way out of this current stalemate for
[00:15:00] both sides is that Iran agrees
[00:15:04] to remove transit restrictions in this strait,
[00:15:08] and in return, economic aid from regional
[00:15:12] countries comes and Iran can benefit from it, and
[00:15:15] the US also lifts its naval
[00:15:38] You saw that they believe that the only current way
[00:15:42] is for these regional countries to come and put
[00:15:46] a way forward for both sides, but in any case,
[00:15:49] it doesn't answer some key issues, the issue of Iran's
[00:15:53] regional influence, the issue of the nuclear
[00:15:56] issue. Do you think that this might
[00:16:00] be the first step and then
[00:16:01] we move towards the next steps?
[00:16:08] Look, I think the Gulf countries
[00:16:12] can be the biggest losers in this issue, and they can be the biggest
[00:16:16] winners as far as their economy is concerned. Anyway,
[00:16:19] it has been a difficult period, both because of the closure
[00:16:23] of the Strait of Hormuz and because
[00:16:27] their entire business environment, their
[00:16:30] ability and their capacity to attract global
[00:16:33] investments has been somewhat tarnished. Their security for
[00:16:37] investment is now damaged. For this reason, they export a lot
[00:16:41] of oil. If a ceasefire is established between Iran and the US,
[00:16:45] a ceasefire that is sustainable at least in the medium
[00:16:48] term, for this very reason, they will certainly
[00:16:51] try to find a middle ground
[00:16:54] between Iran and the US. This is why
[00:16:58] diplomatic consultations in the capitals of Arab countries and Tehran have
[00:17:02] intensified so much. What they essentially want to do
[00:17:06] is to find a solution that both sides
[00:17:09] accept, meaning that both sides can save face
[00:17:13] as much as possible from such an agreement.
[00:17:16] Just today, the advisor to the President of the UAE said that the resumption of war is not
[00:17:20] in the region's interest, but we are prepared
[00:17:23] for the worst conditions. Do you think that
[00:17:27] these countries are really prepared for the worst conditions,
[00:17:30] that is, the conditions where Iran says that if it is attacked, it will not
[00:17:34] impose any geographical restrictions on itself?
[00:17:38] And its responses may not be proportionate
[00:17:42] to the extent of the attacks it receives. Is the region prepared
[00:17:45] for such a thing?
[00:17:53] If you go back to March,
[00:17:56] March 2026,
[00:17:59] you will see that the United Arab Emirates is currently
[00:18:03] suffering the most, then Bahrain, then Qatar,
[00:18:07] then Oman. Even Saudi Arabia was targeted.
[00:18:10] Nominally, the targets that were hit
[00:18:13] were American bases,
[00:18:16] but in any
[00:18:19] case, many times the US and
[00:18:23] Israel attacked Iranian civilian sites,
[00:18:27] logistical sites, energy supply
[00:18:31] sites, and then Iran retaliated by attacking
[00:18:34] similar centers in the Middle East. This is why there is this
[00:18:38] concern from Arab countries. They are worried that their facilities will be destroyed, facilities
[00:18:41] that are the foundation and basis of their
[00:18:45] economy, their petrochemicals, their oil, all their
[00:18:48] logistical centers. In March, we saw the consequences
[00:18:52] of such an action. When
[00:18:53] the Rastafan
[00:18:56] gas facility in Bahrain was targeted,
[00:18:59] its economic growth sharply declined. We saw how the
[00:19:03] cash flow in the UAE was affected.
[00:19:06] Therefore, the concerns are understandable among
[00:19:09] Arab countries that if conflicts
[00:19:13] resume, how bad it will be for them,
[00:19:17] because these countries are on the front line, not only on the front line,
[00:19:20] but actually in the middle of the exchange
[00:19:24] of fire. Well, we know that the relations of these Arab countries,
[00:19:28] from the Emir of Qatar to Mohammed bin Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia,
[00:19:31] are very close to Mr. Trump. You yourself, when you see these negotiations now,
[00:19:35] are you optimistic? Do you think they can?
[00:20:07] Especially Saudi Arabia, where he made his first trip. Well, everyone
[00:20:11] saw how good their relationship
[00:20:14] is, but despite such a good relationship, everyone saw
[00:20:18] that it did not have much
[00:20:21] impact on the outbreak of war between Iran
[00:20:25] and the US, neither in February nor in March
[00:20:28] and April, and then eventually
[00:20:31] countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were forced to
[00:20:34] deny that the US was using their airspace for attacks.
[00:20:44] In any case, many American military bases in
[00:20:48] Arab countries were attacked, and we all
[00:20:51] see the extent of the destruction.
[00:20:54] That's why what we've seen in the past
[00:20:58] two months is that Arab
[00:21:02] countries are essentially reviewing their own security
[00:21:05] and security strategies. Look at the Mecca Pact,
[00:21:09] look at how Saudi Arabia is looking for other options because the agreement that always existed between
[00:21:13] Arab countries and the US is an unwritten agreement that
[00:21:17] we invest in you, you provide our security.
[00:21:50] because of the economic situation, and also
[00:21:53] because of the wars that this country
[00:21:56] is involved in outside of the US, including
[00:22:00] the war with Iran, because it has had a great impact on the price of gasoline
[00:22:04] and the price of diesel for Americans. Therefore,
[00:22:08] common sense dictates that one thinks that, in any case, he will
[00:22:11] carefully listen to the concerns and considerations of the leaders
[00:22:14] of Arab countries, but to be honest, no one knows
[00:22:18] what is on his mind and what.
[00:22:42] Now, after about nine months since the start of the war with Iran,
[00:22:45] many American families are facing higher living costs.
[00:22:49] This situation, on the eve of the decisive US congressional
[00:22:52] elections, has raised the question of whether the economic
[00:22:56] consequences of the war with Iran will be attributed to the White House
[00:22:59] and Republicans, or will voters trust Donald Trump's
[00:23:03] promises for better
[00:23:12] on, they often agree on their love
[00:23:16] for steak. A piece of meat
[00:23:19] on the grill with a little salt and pepper
[00:23:23] is both a social gathering and a celebration
[00:23:26] and a reminder of good memories for
[00:23:30] Americans. These days, however, the price of beef, like many
[00:23:33] other consumer goods in the US, has broken
[00:23:36] records. They always say that the price of diesel
[00:23:39] is included in the price of all our food. According to polls,
[00:23:43] nearly half of regular beef
[00:23:47] customers said:
[00:24:20] goods in the US are transported by truck, and the increase in diesel
[00:24:23] costs also raised the price of goods. This contributed to increased
[00:24:27] inflation for consumers. In the past five or six months,
[00:24:30] the rate of price increases has been higher than wage growth,
[00:24:34] meaning that people's salaries fall behind inflation every month, and
[00:24:38] they feel this pressure in their daily
[00:24:41] lives. However, for months, Donald
[00:24:45] Trump has been promising the people an end to the war
[00:24:48] and renewed affordability.
[00:25:20] this year will have nearly one billion dollars
[00:25:24] more in revenue. There is a difference
[00:25:28] between the income that goes to producers and oil companies,
[00:25:31] and the pressure consumers endure. Even if consumers
[00:25:35] live in oil-producing states or oil-rich
[00:25:39] regions of the country, places where this income can
[00:25:42] also have many benefits. The President's allied
[00:25:46] candidates in various states are
[00:25:50] torn between defending the White House and satisfying voters
[00:25:53] frustrated by high prices.
[00:25:56] I hope he explains more about when
[00:26:00] exactly he expects the Iran
[00:26:02] war to end and how long it will take for prices
[00:26:06] to come down
[00:26:07] after that.
[00:26:11] Ultimately, at the ballot box, it will become clear
[00:26:15] who the people hold responsible for high prices
[00:26:18] and inflation. Do they attribute the high prices
[00:26:21] to Donald Trump and his decision to start the war with Iran,
[00:26:25] or will they give him and his
[00:26:28] party members another two years
[00:26:53] the camp that supports him, care about this war
[00:26:56] and the situation it has created in the US?
[00:27:00] How much is this war changing their
[00:27:04] views when they go to the polls now?
[00:27:07] جنگ داره تغییر
[00:27:10] Well, I think the midterm
[00:27:17] elections will be very
[00:27:21] close and the competition will be neck and neck.
[00:27:24] Democrats have historically achieved more
[00:27:28] success. In the past
[00:27:31] 20 midterms, in 18 of them,
[00:27:34] the incumbent president
[00:27:38] lost seats for his party,
[00:27:41] and in the Senate
[00:27:45] as well, they lost an average of three
[00:27:48] and a half seats. If history repeats itself,
[00:27:52] it will mean that Democrats will once
[00:27:55] again win the House,
[00:27:58] but not the Senate. Of course, this
[00:28:03] is the assessment of the best
[00:28:05] observers. I see that you are also a polling
[00:28:09] expert. In any case, history tells us something, but it would be good
[00:28:13] if you tell us what the polls
[00:28:14] are saying now.
[00:28:22] Today's NBC poll
[00:28:24] showed that Democrats
[00:28:28] are in something called.
[00:29:02] One of these is that white people who
[00:29:06] did not go to college and did not go to
[00:29:09] university were not surveyed. Another problem
[00:29:13] is that young people are overrepresented
[00:29:16] in this survey. Their proportion is higher,
[00:29:20] and finally, another problem is that
[00:29:24] Republicans in red
[00:29:27] areas, which are historically for
[00:29:30] Republicans, are far ahead, and that's why
[00:29:34] I say the competition is neck and neck.
[00:29:37] How much has this war influenced the views of American
[00:29:41] voters that you are looking at now, and in the questions asked
[00:29:45] of them, in which direction they want to vote,
[00:29:48] especially if, as it is said,
[00:29:52] both houses of Congress, meaning the House of Representatives
[00:29:56] and the Senate, are going to be lost
[00:30:00] by Mr. Trump, if, as some say.
[00:30:38] The second problem was fighting immigration, and
[00:30:41] then the law of war with Iran. But
[00:30:44] Americans were able to face the war with Iran
[00:30:48] for two reasons, with two sides of the
[00:30:52] story. One is the issue of fuel and rising
[00:30:55] prices, which is to their detriment.