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[00:00:31] The judicial dispute in Poland continues to escalate. What is the real reason behind the chaos outside the Constitutional Court?
[00:00:34] What is the reason behind the public escalation of the conflict between the president and the prime minister?
[00:00:38] How will this constitutional crisis end?
[00:00:42] What impact will it have on the political situation in Poland?
[00:00:46] The EU is getting involved in Polish politics. What will a series of
[00:00:49] upheavals bring to the EU? Why has the White House, which has always been
[00:00:53] dissatisfied with the European establishment, chosen to keep a low profile at this time?
[00:00:57] Please watch Global Vision.
[00:01:06] Good evening, everyone. Welcome to the live broadcast of Global
[00:01:09] Vision on the news channel. I am Huang Feng. From the evening of October 30th until today, the
[00:01:13] judicial dispute in Poland is still escalating. This battle for control of the court,
[00:01:17] which seems to be centered on the leadership of the court, why did it escalate into a direct confrontation
[00:01:21] between the president and the prime minister? Over the past ten years, the intensifying struggle between the left and right, is
[00:01:25] it the underlying cause of this dispute? What signals
[00:01:29] does the EU's urgent statement reveal? Against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and European
[00:01:33] turmoil, how will this domestic dispute in Poland end?
[00:01:36] For these topics, we have invited Professor Wang Shuo of the School of International Relations at Beijing Foreign
[00:01:40] Studies University and special commentator Su Xiaohui to our
[00:01:44] studio today. Welcome, both of you. First, let's watch a short video
[00:01:48] to learn about the latest developments in the Polish judicial dispute.
[00:01:50] Recently, the dispute over
[00:01:54] judicial control between Polish President Andrzej Duda and the government led by Prime Minister Donald
[00:01:58] Tusk continues.
[00:02:30] It is said that some judges refused to participate because they did not recognize the legality of the meeting.
[00:02:33] The meeting may not be able to pass valid resolutions due to insufficient attendance.
[00:02:37] Polish Prime Minister Tusk posted on social media on the 2nd
[00:02:41] that the conflict in the Constitutional Court can be resolved without amending the
[00:02:45] constitution. He pointed out that the president should recognize the judges legally
[00:02:48] elected by the House of Representatives. However, Polish President
[00:02:52] Duda cited the law on the status of Constitutional Court judges, which stipulates that judges
[00:02:56] must take an oath to the president, believing that the oath procedure is necessary.
[00:03:09] On the same day, the President of the Polish Supreme Court, Małgorzata Gersdorf, convened a special plenary session of the High
[00:03:13] Court judges, scheduled for the 3rd to state a clear position on the situation surrounding the Constitutional
[00:03:17] Court. Gersdorf stressed that the Supreme Court cannot remain indifferent
[00:03:21] to the completely illegal actions of the executive power. He said
[00:03:25] this is the first time such a situation has occurred in Poland
[00:03:28] since 1981. On October
[00:03:30] 30th in the evening, the president and
[00:03:33] vice-president of the Polish Constitutional Court were suspended. In the early morning of the 31st,
[00:03:36] Polish President Duda, who had rushed back to the country, entered the Constitutional Court
[00:03:40] building and had a fierce confrontation with some judges, even
[00:03:44] physically pushing and shoving at one point. The Presidential Office and some judges accused each other of
[00:03:48] illegal behavior. According to the Polish News Agency, Duda
[00:03:52] subsequently left the court building, but some judges remained in the
[00:03:55] building. The chaos can be seen from the public's reaction.
[00:04:00] because we really don't know who is a judge, who is a
[00:04:03] neo-judge, such chaos has been introduced that in reality, since then, Poland's total opposition to the court's judicial appointment problem,
[00:04:20] the Polish court is the core of judicial review, holding the final say on whether laws are legal.
[00:04:27] Since this year,
[00:05:02] from October 30th until now, we can see that Poland's judicial
[00:05:06] dispute is still in an escalating process, and many
[00:05:10] people are very surprised by this.
[00:06:13] So he has already started this kind of judicial reform, and more importantly, he wants to
[00:06:16] uphold the independence of Poland's judiciary. This, of course, was met with extreme
[00:06:20] dissatisfaction from the EU. By 2013, when Tusk's
[00:06:24] so-called pro-EU faction came to power and controlled the parliament,
[00:06:28] they began to backtrack, and more importantly, they wanted to gain the EU's understanding, especially
[00:06:32] to restore EU aid to Poland. This is, of course, very important for Poland's economy.
[00:06:35] But this kind of backtracking has now affected
[00:06:39] the current, as we say, the newly appointed president.
[00:07:42] What we see is the escalation and continuous development of the current conflict,
[00:07:46] which actually reflects that Poland itself, in terms of its political
[00:07:50] system, does indeed have some deep-seated problems. You mentioned
[00:07:54] this semi-presidential system. In fact, we know that Poland implements a parliamentary
[00:07:57] democratic system. For the prime minister and the government, they
[00:08:01] govern by virtue of their majority seats in parliament. However,
[00:08:05] at this time, the president is the head of state, and similarly, the president also
[00:08:09] has considerable power. This power is specifically manifested in that
[00:08:12] if parliament passes a bill, the president has the power to
[00:08:16] exercise a veto. Similarly, he can also submit the relevant
[00:08:20] bill to the Constitutional Court for review.
[00:08:24] At this time, parliament must respond. If
[00:08:28] they want to overturn the president's veto, they need three-fifths of the
[00:08:31] seats, which is a relatively high threshold. Therefore, we will see that for a long time,
[00:08:35] the struggle between the president and the prime minister actually reflects
[00:08:39] some deep-seated problems of the political system. Similarly,
[00:08:43] it is also causing further political stalemate and political
[00:08:47] polarization within Poland. Everyone can imagine,
[00:08:51] when the president and prime minister come from two different camps, and then both
[00:08:54] sides are constantly struggling with each other, then similarly, neither
[00:08:58] side has three-fifths of the seats in parliament, which inevitably means
[00:09:02] that everyone thinks they have a chance to make a move and check each other. This will make
[00:09:06] this political struggle gradually intensify. In addition, regarding the Constitutional
[00:09:09] Court, from the current prime minister's move,
[00:09:23] it can be seen that he naturally tries to gain more leadership and dominance by competing for personnel power. Of course, this kind of action to gain the initiative has encountered certain obstacles, which is the fundamental reason why the current conflict is constantly intensifying
[00:09:26] and seems unsolvable. You just mentioned that the two
[00:09:30] warring factions do not have an absolute majority in parliament. So for
[00:09:34] the current political turmoil and political chaos, we can take a look
[00:09:38] at how Polish media comment on it. Polish media and the Republic.
[00:10:55] whether the president recognizes it or not, and then rejects it. So the
[00:10:59] conflict is actually ultimately about who, the prime minister and the president,
[00:11:03] will make concessions. From the current situation, Tusk's attitude
[00:11:07] is very firm, because of the pressure from the EU, right?
[00:12:25] From the current situation, the time has not been fully determined, but from the current situation, it is
[00:12:29] likely to be in October next year. That is to say, from the
[00:12:32] length of time, even if it is in October, which is less than a year,
[00:12:36] but now we will see that the judicial dispute has
[00:12:40] triggered widespread controversy in Poland. Many people
[00:12:43] believe that this dispute reflects deep-seated contradictions,
[00:12:47] but from the reality it presents, it is indeed a
[00:12:51] chaotic situation. For example, many Polish people believe that this is
[00:14:39] However, there are also different voices within the EU. The co-chairman of the European Conservatives and Reformists Group in the European Parliament, Ryszard Legutko, criticized Tusk's
[00:14:42] government's actions for infringing on judicial independence. He called on
[00:14:46] EU institutions not to apply double standards due to political
[00:14:50] positions. Polish Prime Minister Donald
[00:14:53] Tusk suddenly spoke.
[00:15:05] He also used a large number of Russian trolls on the internet. However, Russia Today reported that
[00:15:09] Tusk did not provide further evidence or
[00:15:13] detailed explanations. Tusk's remarks immediately drew a double counterattack
[00:15:17] from the presidential camp and Russia. The head of Duda's office,
[00:15:21] Paweł Szrot, said Tusk's remarks were almost unfounded.
[00:15:29] Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council, also joined the debate. Medvedev
[00:15:33] called the events in Poland a constitutional coup and commented.
[00:16:37] Obviously, the EU's position is now leaning towards Polish Prime
[00:16:41] Minister Tusk. Xiaohui, in your opinion, does this not feel
[00:16:44] a bit like taking sides? Why do you think Brussels
[00:16:48] was so eager to intervene in Polish affairs?
[00:16:52] Indeed, all parties are observing the judicial dispute occurring within
[00:16:56] Poland. There are indeed different voices within Europe. Even if
[00:16:59] some voices have emerged from Poland, we will also see that the voices within
[00:17:03] the EU are actually complex. But you mentioned taking sides, and indeed. From
[00:17:07] the perspective of taking sides, when this dispute occurred, all
[00:17:11] parties were somewhat cautious in their statements. But now, the voice coming
[00:17:15] from the EU is clearly taking sides.
[00:17:18] In fact, it should be said that the EU's support for Tusk and the forces led by
[00:17:22] Tusk has a long history. Since 2015, regarding the judicial
[00:17:26] reform within Poland, the EU has had its own clear views, hoping to achieve
[00:17:30] its ultimate goals according to its own standards. But currently, we will see
[00:17:34] that the judicial crisis has indeed spread into a
[00:17:37] diplomatic event, or rather, it has triggered a series of
[00:17:41] developments in the diplomatic field. So everyone first pays attention to the fact that two foreign
[00:17:45] ambassadors have already resigned, but more importantly, it involves the current
[00:17:49] statement of the EU, which is actually not only aimed at the current events
[00:17:53] happening in Poland, but also at this delicate moment in time.
[00:17:57] In fact, the news segment just now also mentioned whether it is pro-EU
[00:18:01] or accused of being pro-Russia, this seems to have become a
[00:18:04] so-called politically correct issue. So when the EU chooses.
[00:18:42] So whether it's pro-EU or pro-Russia, whether it's left-leaning or right-leaning,
[00:18:46] from our discussion just now, we can clearly feel that Poland's
[00:18:50] left-right struggle, its core issue is how
[00:18:54] to handle the relationship between Poland and the EU.
[00:18:57] It also presents
[00:19:02] many criticisms of the EU. From this situation,
[00:19:06] it seems.
[00:21:07] A large number of Russian internet trolls were used on the internet.
[00:21:18] From the US election, to Spanish immigration, to Poland's constitutional
[00:21:22] coup, all of this was done by Russians.
[00:21:25] Linking domestic affairs
[00:21:28] to Russia. What do you think the current social
[00:21:32] turmoil in Poland will have on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which has lasted for
[00:21:36] five years? First of all, I strongly
[00:21:40] agree with what Xiao Guo just said, which is that on the issue of pro-Russia and pro-EU,
[00:21:44] it has become a politically correct issue in Poland.
[00:21:47] It involves. That affects
[00:22:50] next year's general election. It may increase. Even the
[00:23:03] joint efforts of Europe in terms of defense integration, then
[00:23:07] it may also shrink. So in this way, it will actually indirectly
[00:23:10] affect the direction of the Ukrainian conflict. Just now, we talked about
[00:23:14] Poland. We talked about the relationship between Poland and the EU. But I
[00:23:18] think there is one party that is
[00:24:20] the attitude, or rather, the fact that the United States did not express its position and intervene at the first time, does
[00:24:24] not mean that the United States will not choose sides later
[00:24:27] to further express its relevant demands. In fact, what we currently
[00:24:31] see is that the United States is considering several factors. At present,
[00:24:35] maintaining a certain degree of restraint, I am afraid, is that in terms of priority
[00:24:39] sequencing, the United States still has its priorities.
[00:24:43] Facing the midterm elections, this is, of course, the most important political agenda in the United States this year.
[00:24:47] At such a point in time, I am afraid there is no room for it.
[00:25:20] At the same time, regarding the attitude of Europe, the signal that the United States is now sending
[00:25:24] is that it hopes that on the one hand, Europe can bear more responsibility, and on the other
[00:25:27] hand, in terms of cognition, Europe should see that when constantly emphasizing
[00:25:31] the Russian threat, whether it will magnify this threat,
[00:25:35] and instead lead to an escalation of the conflict. This is a question that the US establishment
[00:25:39] is also raising. Alright, thank you both for your wonderful analysis. Our program will continue shortly.
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[00:26:24] It can be seen that the superficial
[00:26:34] reason for the Polish constitutional dispute is the conflict between the president and vice-president,
[00:26:38] and the deeper reflection is the structural dilemma facing the EU. When EU
[00:26:42] integration is at a standstill, is it European integration or national interests?
[00:26:46] The more external pressure calls for European integration, the more internal
[00:26:49] contradictions make European integration more difficult.
[00:26:53] When the divisible cake becomes smaller and smaller, where is Europe
[00:26:57] going? It has become a common problem for this continent. Thank you all for
[00:27:01] watching today's Global Vision.