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20261105 143000 UTC
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[00:00:31] After the US midterm elections, what kind of disagreements have emerged within
[00:00:35] the US regarding the follow-up actions on the Iran issue? Does
[00:00:39] the risk of escalating US-Iran conflict still exist? Top Iranian officials warn
[00:00:42] against abandoning illusions about the US and strengthening preparedness for war. Is the diplomatic
[00:00:46] window between the two sides narrowing again? Israel's cabinet formation is surging
[00:00:50] with undercurrents. The opposition accuses Netanyahu's administration of harming US-Israel relations.
[00:00:54] How will Netanyahu's domestic and external predicament affect his
[00:00:58] decision-making on Iran? Please watch Global
[00:01:11] Global Vision, live on the news channel. I'm Huang Feng.
[00:01:15] The midterm elections have just concluded. What changes have occurred within the US regarding
[00:01:19] the direction of Iran policy? What new variables have emerged in the
[00:01:23] US-Iran game of talk and fight? The results of the Israeli parliamentary elections have been officially announced,
[00:01:26] but undercurrents are surging in the cabinet formation.
[00:01:49] First, let's watch a short video to learn about the latest developments between the US and Iran. After the US
[00:01:52] Congressional midterm elections, how to proceed with the next steps
[00:01:56] on the Iran issue has become a major focus of external attention. On the 4th,
[00:02:30] US Vice President Pence posted a long article on social media, stating frankly
[00:02:33] that the root cause of the Republican Party's failure was the Iran war. Pence
[00:02:37] admitted that he had a bad feeling before the midterm elections, and
[00:02:41] cited the views of poll experts to propose four tasks to bring voters back to the Republican
[00:02:45] Party: ending the Iran war, addressing the cost of
[00:02:49] living and inflation issues, insisting on America First, and changing
[00:02:53] US-Israel relations. US Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer
[00:02:57] said on the 4th that the Iran war must be...
[00:03:30] Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on US military bases in the
[00:03:34] region, and other actions are responses to US aggression.
[00:03:38] If aggression occurs again, the scale of the response will
[00:03:42] be greatly expanded. Just on the 3rd, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard
[00:03:46] Corps released a video. The representative of Iran's Supreme Leader inspected
[00:03:50] Iran's southern naval missile tunnel. The tunnel contains a large
[00:03:53] number of anti-ship missiles and suicide drones. The video also
[00:03:57] showed images of anti-ship missiles hitting targets.
[00:04:01] For us, defensive power in this region creates
[00:04:04] deterrence and a decisive response to terrorist
[00:04:07] aggression.
[00:04:08] Local time on the 5th, the Revolutionary Guard stated that its naval unmanned submarine unit
[00:04:16] had shot down a US MQ-9 drone in the eastern airspace of the Strait of Hormuz two days ago.
[00:04:22] However, the US was also conducting exercises. On the 3rd, a senior US official
[00:04:24] 不過美商也在進行3號原一名高級官
[00:05:12] American voters do not like this war and hope to end it
[00:05:16] as soon as possible. From President Trump's remarks in the
[00:05:20] past two days, to Vice President Pence's remarks, to the Democratic
[00:05:24] Party leader's remarks, all indicate that the President,
[00:05:28] Vice President, and Democrats have all received this signal and hope to end the
[00:05:31] war as soon as possible. This is actually nothing
[00:05:35] new. Just a few days after the war started on February
[00:05:39] 28th, the US already realized that this war could not be won in the end.
[00:05:42] Since then, the US has always wanted to end the war as soon as possible.
[00:05:46] But its problem and difficulty is that there is no good
[00:05:50] way to end the war. So this was the problem before
[00:05:54] the election, and it is still the problem after the election. If you want to end the war,
[00:05:58] the US has no good choices. The US's choices are bad
[00:06:01] choices, worse choices, and the worst choices.
[00:06:05] It depends on what the US wants from these three choices. So far,
[00:06:09] the US is unwilling to make a clear choice. Every time it says,
[00:06:13] "I might have to fight soon," but I haven't made the final
[00:06:17] choice. It's difficult for it to make a choice. Bad,
[00:06:21] worse, worst, it's unwilling to choose any of them. So far,
[00:06:24] there are still three options. That is, an agreement can be reached through negotiation,
[00:06:28] then Iran can be attacked again, and the war can also drag on.
[00:06:32] These three choices are all very unfavorable for the United States.
[00:06:36] To negotiate means to make concessions to Iran, or even surrender
[00:06:40] to Iran, which the United States is unwilling to do.
[00:06:52] So the difficulties before and the difficulties now are basically the same.
[00:08:12] On the other hand, it has nearly 200 transport flights transporting
[00:08:16] a large amount of such ammunition to the Middle East.
[00:08:20] So this process actually shows that from the White House's perspective, it
[00:08:24] is not only preparing for war, but also possibly
[00:08:27] preparing for such frequent, multiple wars.
[00:08:31] Therefore, when so many military resources are already present
[00:08:35] in the Middle East, then whether to launch such
[00:08:38] a war, I think its possibility, in fact, we cannot
[00:08:42] easily rule out any direction. In addition,
[00:08:46] in fact, what we just talked about is the subjective aspect. From an objective perspective,
[00:08:50] once the war starts, whether the United States can
[00:08:54] control the scale and duration of the war is actually a very big
[00:08:57] problem. In fact, as early as February 28th this year, when the United States
[00:09:01] first launched this war against Iran, it was obvious
[00:09:05] that the United States wanted a lightning war, hoping
[00:09:08] to end this war very quickly, but when the war started...
[00:10:12] It has now been proven that this war against the Iranian regime, the war
[00:10:16] against Iran, did not overthrow the Iranian regime, but it overthrew
[00:10:20] half of the US regime. So the Congress can be said to have overthrown half
[00:10:24] of the regime. In the United States, those who are now opposed to
[00:10:27] the Iran war, actually won this time.
[00:10:31] Because the Democratic Party opposed the Iran war from the beginning. The Democratic Party now controls
[00:10:35] the Senate and the House of Representatives. Then, within the Republican Party and
[00:10:39] within the White House, Pence and many other senators
[00:10:43] and representatives opposed the war from the beginning, but they did not
[00:10:47] dare to speak out. Because at that time, the President's power was relatively great.
[00:10:50] Now some people dare to openly speak out, so they oppose
[00:10:54] the war.
[00:12:25] He opposes this war, but he does not oppose
[00:12:29] putting greater pressure on Iran. So we can see that
[00:12:32] among the conditions put forward by Iran,
[00:12:36] there are quite a few, such as lifting sanctions on Iran,
[00:12:40] unfreezing related assets. All these issues require
[00:12:44] Congress to give a green light. But it is very obvious that under
[00:12:48] the background of the Democratic Party governing Congress, it is difficult to reach
[00:12:52] such an agreement. Whether
[00:13:07] it is due to US domestic political considerations or the overall US policy towards Iran, it is unlikely. So, negotiations have become a very difficult matter. The US and Iran may maintain relevant political contact, but reaching a comprehensive
[00:13:11] agreement will be very difficult. At the same time, we can
[00:13:15] also see that Iran is currently facing great internal
[00:13:19] pressure. So, although we say that the Supreme Leader has given the
[00:13:22] government a certain authorization, the phrase "certain authorization" itself also
[00:13:26] means that this authorization has boundaries and does not mean
[00:13:30] that the government can completely make concessions on a series of
[00:13:34] issues without any restrictions. Therefore, future
[00:13:38] political negotiations between the US and Iran may fall into a stalemate
[00:13:41] and deadlock. Okay, we just focused on the US midterm elections. Another
[00:13:45] election that just concluded is the Israeli parliamentary election. The results
[00:13:49] have been officially announced, and the cabinet formation process has begun.
[00:13:53] So, against this background, what choice will Netanyahu, who has always wanted to push for
[00:13:57] another strike against Iran, make? Let's watch another short video.
[00:14:01] After the chairman of the Israeli Central
[00:14:05] Election Committee, Supreme Court Justice Solberg, officially submitted the results
[00:14:08] of the Israeli parliamentary elections to President Herzog, from the evening of the
[00:14:12] 4th to the 5th, Herzog began consultations with various parties,
[00:14:16] listening to recommendations from all sides for cabinet formation candidates. This
[00:14:20] means that the process of forming Israel's new government has officially begun.
[00:14:23] According to the parliament.
[00:14:39] The Arab Joint List, which does not belong to any camp but opposes the current government, won a total of 19 seats.
[00:14:43] Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on the 5th published an article attacking
[00:14:46] the domestic Arab Joint List and called for the formation of a government led
[00:14:50] by the Likud bloc. Former Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense
[00:14:54] Forces, political party.
[00:15:20] At the same time, major US mainstream media predicted that the US Democratic Party
[00:15:24] would win Congress in the midterm elections.
[00:15:46] military action, US military action against Iran, etc., US public support for Israel has generally declined, and there are increasing voices within both parties criticizing Israel and questioning US aid to Israel. Just on the day of the US midterm elections,
[00:15:50] US President Trump suddenly announced
[00:15:54] that the approximately $4 billion in aid the US provides to Israel annually
[00:15:58] would end at the end of this year,
[00:16:01] and claimed that this idea was proposed by Netanyahu.
[00:16:05] However, as of now,
[00:16:11] Netanyahu's office has not yet made an official response. According to Israeli media reports, core officials from the Israeli Ministry of Defense, military, and Ministry of Finance were shocked
[00:16:15] when they heard the news, as if they had fallen out of their chairs.
[00:16:19] Some Ministry of Finance officials privately complained, "Although we knew
[00:16:22] there was an intention to cut funding, we were caught off guard by the immediate
[00:16:26] implementation." Eisenkot even stated on the 3rd that Israel
[00:16:30] only learned through media reports that the framework of US-Israel strategic relations
[00:16:34] had changed.
[00:16:52] rekindling war with Iran will help Netanyahu, who is currently struggling to form a government,
[00:16:56] to form an emergency government. Facing the risk of a renewed
[00:17:00] war, the Gulf countries' tensions are being raised. Many
[00:17:04] Gulf countries are on the one hand promoting diplomatic de-escalation.
[00:17:37] The camp's seats in parliament, with the support of the Arab Joint
[00:17:41] List, can pass the majority. On the other hand, we see how the Associated Press
[00:17:45] reported on Netanyahu's intention to push for a new round of strikes between the US
[00:17:49] and Iran. It said, if a full-scale war breaks out with Iran,
[00:17:53] it might help Netanyahu form an emergency government.
[00:17:57] 。
[00:18:00] Given the US's unclear attitude towards restarting the Iran war,
[00:18:04] what do you think is the current situation for the incumbent government?
[00:18:38] most likely to form a government, and then who will be appointed
[00:18:41] to form it? Now, the two Arab parties both say they support
[00:18:45] Eisenkot's formation. But if Eisenkot wants to unite with
[00:18:49] these two Arab parties, Eisenkot's current 48 seats
[00:18:53] in the Jewish camp will split, because these 48 seats
[00:18:57] are composed of the most right-wing parties, the most right-wing
[00:19:01] parties. The most right-wing party told Eisenkot,
[00:19:05] "If you unite with the Arabs, then we will not be with you."
[00:19:09] So, at least for now, even if Eisenkot tries to form
[00:19:12] a government, in the current situation, he still cannot form
[00:19:16] one. But for Netanyahu, the bad news is that Netanyahu's
[00:19:20] Likud bloc originally won the position of the largest
[00:19:24] party in the election, and then Netanyahu's bloc was also the largest
[00:19:28] bloc. But in this situation, two Arab parties
[00:19:31] support Eisenkot, and then within Netanyahu's bloc,
[00:19:35] the far-right religious parties told the president that they are currently
[00:19:39] not expressing support for Netanyahu to form a government. So, on the issue
[00:19:43] of forming a government, Eisenkot has the advantage. He can form
[00:19:47] a government first.
[00:19:49] 。
[00:19:52] In the future, he can launch a war, he can, that is,
[00:19:56] sabotage the opposition party's government formation. In this situation,
[00:20:00] although he cannot form a government, if the opposition party also fails to form one,
[00:20:03] he can remain in power as a caretaker.
[00:21:20] Under his leadership, Israel has become a military power that can achieve
[00:21:23] housing self-sufficiency. This is the big background
[00:21:27] of Netanyahu's proposal at that time to supposedly cut off US military
[00:21:31] aid to Israel. And Trump's statement this time,
[00:21:35] and the immediate implementation, actually points to
[00:21:39] responding to the current dissatisfaction of the American public
[00:21:42] with this situation or with the Republican Party's
[00:21:46] related issues, which includes the war.
[00:22:50] Especially the deterioration of US-Israel political relations is not a recent matter. Over
[00:22:54] the past decade or so, US-Israel political relations have become increasingly estranged.
[00:22:57] A very important reason is that Israeli politics
[00:23:01] has been moving to the right for the past 20 years. This has led many Democrats
[00:23:05] in the US to believe that Israel and the US have
[00:23:09] experienced significant differences in values. Many Americans believe
[00:23:12] that Israel is no longer a democracy that the US identifies with.
[00:23:16] So they began to distance themselves from Israel. Of course. In the past three
[00:23:20] years, the whole world has opposed Israel, including many who believe that
[00:23:24] Israel has gone too far. But the Trump administration has unilaterally
[00:23:28] supported Israel, which has also led many Americans to be dissatisfied with the Trump
[00:23:32] administration and with Israel. So in this election,
[00:23:35] the Israeli issue became a very important issue in the US
[00:23:39] election. In particular, Michigan elected a senator who clearly opposes
[00:23:43] Israel, which is unprecedented in history. So in the future,
[00:23:47] for a considerable period of time, Israel and the United States may
[00:24:20] The country's current situation is relatively awkward. On the one hand,
[00:24:24] the Gulf countries are trying to persuade the US not to use force against Iran,
[00:24:27] to avoid being affected. But at the same time, the Gulf countries must express
[00:24:31] so-called support for the US, in order to bind
[00:24:35] their defense cooperation with the US, hoping to continue to obtain
[00:24:39] relevant defense protection from the US. However,
[00:24:43] in this situation, we can actually see that the US's so-called protection
[00:24:47] of regional countries is becoming increasingly weak.
[00:24:50] On the one hand, we are saying that this protection itself is constantly being
[00:24:54] attacked. We have seen that in the past six months, a series of US
[00:24:58] bases in the Middle East have been attacked, and personnel have also
[00:25:02] withdrawn. At the same time, in fact, the US's
[00:25:06] commitment to regional countries is also becoming less credible.
[00:25:10] And the US's will to defend regional countries is also
[00:25:13] decreasing. So all these defenses have become a transaction.
[00:25:17] This also makes regional countries feel helpless. .
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