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20260808 033000 UTC
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[00:00:33] of
[00:00:37] of
[00:01:10] sets to surge, of
[00:01:12] of course following what's happening at the straight
[00:01:14] of homos and then it's not good news in Egypt, currency
[00:01:17] slums to a 10-year
[00:01:19] low
[00:01:22] and in Ghana, it's good news right there, inflation eases a
[00:01:26] bit.
[00:01:37] we start from the global oil space, prices high on Friday,
[00:01:41] of further concerns surrounding the reopening
[00:01:43] of the straight of homos and potential Iranian bans and
[00:01:47] finds and vessels and it seems hostile for
[00:01:51] and also in violation of proposed rules, so we
[00:01:54] see um oil features settled more than
[00:01:57] of $3 barrel higher at the... close off trade yesterday
[00:02:01] so for now we see a 0.28%
[00:02:04] of increase on
[00:02:06] in um that's for WTI 77.51 cents a
[00:02:10] barrel brend has also gained 0.32% and it's gone up from
[00:02:13] $79 that we had yesterday to
[00:02:16] $82.77 natural gas follows to
[00:02:20] 0.30% up uh
[00:02:22] $2.64 a barrel Iran is
[00:02:26] seeking fees of between 5% and 7%
[00:02:29] of the price of cargos from ships using the street and this is
[00:02:33] according to a
[00:02:34] of senior Iranian official oman meanwhile is discussing
[00:02:37] fees
[00:02:38] of of about 3% while Washington wants no fees at
[00:02:42] all, while this week's
[00:02:44] of signals a potential deal have driven roller coaster
[00:02:47] ride in market sentiment, the market remains in the
[00:02:51] dark as to what needs to happen for the
[00:02:54] agreement to be cleanged and this of course leaves lot of
[00:02:58] uncertainty. in the air closely related to that to see
[00:03:02] of what's happening with metals prizes that's for gold firm
[00:03:05] today and one root to their biggest weekly gain since january helped
[00:03:09] by weaker oil prizes investors are waiting
[00:03:13] that are non-farm payrolls from the united stat that
[00:03:17] should give
[00:03:18] a clue to
[00:03:19] of interest rate outlook so we see right there for spot
[00:03:23] gold spot gold is about 1.5%
[00:03:25] up um at this time while we see huge
[00:03:30] 4.84% up uh for spot
[00:03:33] silver and then platinum is also up 2.65%,
[00:03:37] palladium also up, just copper, copper uh is the only
[00:03:40] metal for now that has not gained. the US president
[00:03:44] told reporters that he believed that the war with Iran would be over
[00:03:48] soon and said that the armed forces were experiencing issues with supplies
[00:03:53] of of weapons, screwed oil
[00:03:54] of prizes of
[00:03:55] a course uh we have already told you about that and all
[00:03:59] of this is fa global food prices we see that has
[00:04:03] climbed to the highest level in three years on
[00:04:07] supply concerns push up the cost of key
[00:04:11] a commodities. the
[00:04:11] of latest food and agriculture organization food price index
[00:04:15] shows higher prices for cereals, vegetable
[00:04:18] oils, dairy products and sugar driven
[00:04:22] by weather related disruptions and of course the tightening
[00:04:25] global oil supply and global supply is annally
[00:04:29] analysts. say that adverse weather in major producing
[00:04:32] regions, export uncertainties and stronger import
[00:04:36] demand are adding pressure to global food
[00:04:39] in markets. the rising costs are raising concerns
[00:04:43] of about food inflation, particularly in developing economies that rely
[00:04:47] heavily on imports and economist are
[00:04:50] of warning that sustained increases in food prices could
[00:04:53] complicate efforts by central banks to contain
[00:04:56] a inflation while placing additional pressure. and
[00:05:00] household budgets, markets are now watching for global harvests and
[00:05:04] trade flows for signs of easing supply
[00:05:07] constraints
[00:05:11] and um south. Africa has signed a $500 million
[00:05:15] dollar loan agreement with the Asian infrastructure
[00:05:18] investment, marking another step in its drive
[00:05:22] to finance critical infrastructure and support economic
[00:05:26] reforms. The agreement threatens the country's partnership with the Beijing
[00:05:29] based multilateral lender and is expected
[00:05:33] to help on priority development projects. The financing comes
[00:05:37] as Pretoriaa sex to boost investments in infrastructure, improve
[00:05:41] public services. and stimulate economic growth at mid fiscal
[00:05:45] pressures. The loan is expected to complement the government's broader
[00:05:49] strategy of attracting development finance while
[00:05:52] maintaining macroeconomic
[00:05:54] stability.
[00:05:58] Malawi central bank left its policy rate unchanged at
[00:06:01] 24%. saying the current level is appropriate to
[00:06:05] keep inflation a downward trajectory, though it is still
[00:06:09] well above the target. policy makers saying inflation is
[00:06:13] easing but remains above target, prompting cautious
[00:06:16] approach to any policy changes. the decision aims to
[00:06:20] maintain price stability while supporting the country's economic
[00:06:24] recovery, the central bank says it will continue to closely
[00:06:28] monitor inflation trends, exchange rates, development
[00:06:32] and global economic conditions before considering any
[00:06:35] adjustment to borrowing
[00:06:37] costts. in West Africa, Ghana's annual
[00:06:41] inflation rate. that as eased to 4.6% in July
[00:06:45] from 5.3%. That's what it was in June, and this
[00:06:49] marks the first decline since March. The latest figures from the
[00:06:53] Ghana Statistical service suggest that price pressures
[00:06:57] are beginning to moderate after three consecutive monthly
[00:07:01] increases. The slow down is driven by softer increases
[00:07:05] in the prices of both food and non-food items,
[00:07:08] reinforcing expectations that inflation remains under control.
[00:07:12] despite recent global economic
[00:07:15] uncertainties, and in Egypt,
[00:07:19] not good news coming from there, the pound there has recorded the
[00:07:22] steepest currency decline among Africa's largest
[00:07:26] economies over the past decade and highlighting the
[00:07:29] country's prolonged struggle with foreign exchange,
[00:07:32] shortages, inflation and repeated currency
[00:07:35] devaluations. analys say depreciation reflects years
[00:07:39] of economic reforms and external financing
[00:07:43] pressures, the currency has weakened significantly against the US
[00:07:47] dollar since 2016, following multiple rounds of
[00:07:50] devaluation, linked to international monetary fund back reforms
[00:07:54] aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability, while the moves
[00:07:58] have helped to attract foreign financing, they've also increased import costs
[00:08:02] and field inflation. economy say recent improvement in
[00:08:06] foreign investment and foreign exchange availability are
[00:08:10] helping to stabilize the market, but maintaining investor confidence
[00:08:14] and sustaining economic reforms remain critical to strengthening the
[00:08:18] Egyptian pound over the long
[00:08:20] term. Africa's
[00:08:24] leading infrastructure guarantees platform plans to double its
[00:08:27] capital base as it steps up efforts to attract more
[00:08:31] private investment into infrastructure projects
[00:08:35] across the continent. The expansion is aimed at strengthening
[00:08:39] its capacity to provide risk guarantees that make large... scale
[00:08:43] project more attractive to investors. The platform says
[00:08:46] increasing its capital will allow it to support more
[00:08:50] projects in sectors including energy, transport,
[00:08:54] digital infrastructure and trade. By reducing investment
[00:08:57] risks, the guarantees are expected to unlock billions
[00:09:01] of dollars in private financing and help bridge Africa's
[00:09:05] infrastructure funding gap. Development finance
[00:09:08] institutions say guarantees are becoming increasingly.
[00:09:12] tool is governments face tighter budgets and
[00:09:16] declining development aid and so the move is expected to
[00:09:20] improve access to long-term financing and accelerate
[00:09:23] infrastructure development across the
[00:09:25] continent and
[00:09:29] looking at the market at intraday we see for Africa stocks
[00:09:33] are mostly positive at intraday including of
[00:09:37] course what's going on in Nigeria and um
[00:09:41] still talking about the let's go to the fixed income markets -
[00:09:45] we spoke about an interesting story earlier today during
[00:09:48] business morning, there you have it, the NGX is positive, but let's go to the fixed
[00:09:52] income market where the CBN and the DMO are suspended
[00:09:56] t bills auction and made 4.69 trillion
[00:10:00] nara homo sale auction and
[00:10:04] um what does that mean would can uh is it that
[00:10:08] demand has become really high because last week we did hear
[00:10:12] um from the DMO uh that they
[00:10:15] reduced the reduced rates because of
[00:10:19] increase in demand, so is this another strategy
[00:10:23] by the government to drive? um uh demand
[00:10:26] higher because of course when the seems to be scarcity
[00:10:30] then most likely um there'll be higher demand uh but I
[00:10:34] wonder if that's what the DMO is working
[00:10:38] on so we hear that they have suspended the sale of t
[00:10:42] bills for this week um but I've been told by some analysts
[00:10:46] that this is exactly is not exactly new thing or a big
[00:10:50] deal uh because yes they do have two auctions in
[00:10:54] a month so even this is suspended then we might have another
[00:10:57] one next week, but we know that the demand has been increasing
[00:11:01] for government securities um over time the last
[00:11:04] a couple of time and so mean this
[00:11:08] 4.69 trillion almost sale which
[00:11:12] they have done um they have suspended further sale
[00:11:16] of uh t bills is this a way to also
[00:11:19] manage um government debt
[00:11:23] perhaps that's will be some thing else now let's go to the middle
[00:11:26] east and um uh see what the market looks
[00:11:30] like, well stocks are traded mostly negative
[00:11:34] at intraday talking about the middle east and then in the
[00:11:38] United States we saw stock features mixed in early trade
[00:11:41] traders are waiting the release of that jobs
[00:11:45] reports uh which I mentioned earlier and that's what investors are looking
[00:11:49] at Airbnb shares for um the United
[00:11:52] States that's rallyed over 8% in free market trading
[00:11:56] and then also after the vacation rental company posted a bit on the
[00:12:00] top and bottom lines cloud flare also surged
[00:12:04] 16% in pre-market after the cloud cyber
[00:12:07] security company issued the solid full year and current
[00:12:11] quarter outlook and going to Asia now
[00:12:15] market closed there obviously time difference uh we saw Japan
[00:12:19] sneak25 closed 0.1% 12%
[00:12:23] lower 65,600 and 6.71 South Korea's
[00:12:27] cost few
[00:12:27] was also down 0.6% at
[00:12:30] 6,258.77 uh it's that was
[00:12:34] described as a choppy trade in Hong Kong uh that was
[00:12:37] up 0.44% in the last hour of trade while mainland China
[00:12:41] CSI uh that closed 0.93% higher at
[00:12:45] 4,694. market sentiment was
[00:12:49] supported by China's export growth in July and that
[00:12:53] beats analyst estimate and of course
[00:12:55] excited um the uh
[00:13:27] the T-Bills auction should, what does it mean, what does it
[00:13:31] signal, what are the regulators trying
[00:13:34] to achieve with this? Okay,
[00:13:38] first of all, let's look at the communicat always comes out
[00:13:42] from the debt management office the central bank, they often
[00:13:46] say that the circulars or their calendars are subject to change,
[00:13:49] and formal practice has always been that for
[00:13:53] Nigerian treasury bills you. standard two auctions in a month,
[00:13:57] so even on the calendar issuing and letting us know that for the for
[00:14:01] this quarter that there would have been three auctions per month or sort of like an
[00:14:04] anomaly, that signal to the market increased supply, so for
[00:14:08] them to have then suspended the auction that should have happened this week and then
[00:14:12] it just follows into so it just looks like they're going back to status
[00:14:16] quo uh indeed the market is interpreted as sort of
[00:14:20] like reduced supply, but we believe that the next auction demand is also still going
[00:14:24] to be sustained. and it still affords the dm the opportunity to
[00:14:28] as much as they can uh or raise as much money as they want to, we may also
[00:14:32] want to look at what has happened over the last three auctions uh in the
[00:14:35] month of in the month of July where demand consistently
[00:14:39] grew you know uh in the first auction and the 8th of July
[00:14:43] there was about subscription for the one year paper of around 1.8 trillion but
[00:14:47] the DMO sold in 935 billion and then by the next auction on the
[00:14:50] 15th of July demand was about 2.8 trillion and they sold just
[00:14:54] over trillion you and then the last one on the 29th of July demand was over 3
[00:14:58] trillion so there's appetite for government securities especially on
[00:15:02] the one year paper and so it could also be that so we could look at it from two ways
[00:15:06] number one is the fact that the suspension the auction that should have happened this
[00:15:10] week you could be a reset from the regulator or from the issue
[00:15:14] however i think more the fact that
[00:15:16] it is just status quo just returning to the
[00:15:18] two octions two standard auctions every month they are still able to
[00:15:21] you know raise the amount of money they desire at those auctions. so
[00:15:25] I mean buse there's also the conversation that is this creating
[00:15:29] an artificial scarcity you know to kind of uh
[00:15:33] give the uh regulators or the issue an opportunity more
[00:15:36] opportunities. to reduce rates because we did hear that they had plans to
[00:15:40] reduce rates and missed the heightened or
[00:15:43] increased demand. that could
[00:15:47] be, but the demand already tells a story for itself. uh,
[00:15:51] from the data that I just gave from the 8th of July to 15th of July to 29th
[00:15:55] of July, you find that you know the stop rate have been dropping
[00:15:58] consistently from the first 28th of July, 17.7%
[00:16:02] was where the one year one year stop closed. on 15th of July closed at
[00:16:06] 17.66. and on the 29 of July closed at 17.35
[00:16:10] on the back the fact that demand increased at every point in time
[00:16:13] so it could be it could serve them that you know if they pull back a bit rates
[00:16:17] to drop you know further down in the secondary market those bonds or those bills are
[00:16:21] already trading around 17.10.10% so yes there
[00:16:25] is sustained demand for these securities and uh if they shift the auction to
[00:16:29] next to next week i still think they would raise whatever they want to raise and
[00:16:32] rate to continue to drop so rate to continue to drop does it
[00:16:36] drive match? to the
[00:16:38] equities,
[00:16:41] you could, but
[00:16:42] you know again uh, it's capital allocation, some capital must come to the fixed income
[00:16:46] market, and given how the equities market has done already in the course
[00:16:49] the year, what are the chances that it's going even do much better? i think is about
[00:16:53] 60% here to date, do you expect
[00:16:56] it to reach 100%? maybe not quite, some people will
[00:16:58] be taking profit around this time, you especially given that
[00:17:00] is this is dividend season, so we could see lot more capital still flow into the fixed
[00:17:04] income market, think that even the... ipo can attract
[00:17:08] investors from the fixed income to the
[00:17:11] equities? oh, i think that's the bride the year, that's what
[00:17:15] everybody's waiting for, we'll see lot of interest in that
[00:17:18] space, and the year will probably quote and unquote close from
[00:17:21] there, so there there will be cup to waiting, lot of people are, okay, that's another reason why people
[00:17:25] could even put money in fixed income or in in short term money market instruments, just
[00:17:29] keeping their you know gun powder dry for the dangy offer, well
[00:17:33] m, do you see any disruptions from um political
[00:17:36] spending? political activities, do
[00:17:39] you see any disruption to the markets?
[00:17:43] so typically a pre-election year what we've always found or what we know is
[00:17:46] we the trend that we've seen isuh rates are elevated in pre-election
[00:17:50] years, that's because uh government borrowing and spending is always
[00:17:54] elevated
[00:17:55] you know and if we look at the trend this year
[00:17:57] it hasn't b to
[00:17:58] that trend uh the fact that we are still trading at 17 levels or boring or the
[00:18:02] government is borrowing money at 17 levels for the one year paper you tells that story
[00:18:05] that the debt is you continue to borrow so we think
[00:18:09] you know we don't see a significant drop in those interests, we are not going to drop to a 15 level
[00:18:12] 15% you know handle between now and
[00:18:15] the end the year because the government still has to borrow and they have to you know fund the election,
[00:18:19] that's just the trend we've seen, so we don't expect any drastic drop
[00:18:23] you all this one are just what we call moderations, the market just moderating
[00:18:27] and - you i missed um excess liquidity in the
[00:18:50] and I can tell you I got some good news here when it comes to markets
[00:18:54] because we're really green across the board, the Dax in
[00:18:57] Frankfurt remains in record territory and is the strongest
[00:19:01] performer here on the continent up almost a percent by now and the
[00:19:05] other main markets here, London, Paris, Madrid. all up only fractions,
[00:19:09] but they are in the green, that's what matters, especially today since the oil
[00:19:13] price is up a bit on latest developments and for markets, it's
[00:19:16] definitely a good sign if they can withstand that,
[00:19:20] and the dax by the way has few good corporate numbers to feed
[00:19:24] today and that's why it's doing pretty good, so AI has been
[00:19:28] a major driver of both the markets and other parts the economy
[00:19:31] and uh the current situation now we've seen AI crash the market
[00:19:35] also uh lot of profit taking. at some point, what's the situation
[00:19:39] now when we look through the lens of artificial
[00:19:42] intelligence? well, yeah, it's certainly been everywhere
[00:19:46] recently, AI has greatly influenced most parts the industry, in
[00:19:50] of course, certainly media too, and even people's own personal transactions
[00:19:53] online, and not everyone is comfortable with these developments, and I
[00:19:57] would say that in Europe here and most certainly in Germany, many people
[00:20:01] are cautious regarding this latest technology, and for several
[00:20:05] reasons, actually, on the one hand, of... It's hard to know how
[00:20:09] exactly AI will change our lives, how it's going to impact
[00:20:13] politics, economy, society, in general, but on the other
[00:20:17] hand, it's also seen as a problem here that AI just
[00:20:20] needs huge amounts of data, that data centers are planned
[00:20:24] everywhere, that the demand for electricity is extremely
[00:20:28] high for water, for cooling as well, and that's what a lot of people here are
[00:20:32] worried about, and that is certainly reason why the biggest firms
[00:20:35] in the sector are... actually mostly investing elsewhere if we're
[00:20:39] looking at the big ones here, alphabet, amazon, meta,
[00:20:43] microsoft, they're investing 750 billion dollars
[00:20:46] in AI infrastructure this year alone, but almost all
[00:20:50] of it outside the EU with uh Europe's share of
[00:20:54] global data center capacity likely shrinking from
[00:20:58] 13% now to about 10% by
[00:21:01] 2030. yeah and unfortunately I mean the story is already
[00:21:05] that uh the economy is weaken so what are more
[00:21:09] implication what more implication can this bring to to Europe
[00:21:13] and you know Germany and and and all of you guys
[00:21:16] there? yeah that's a question right on the surface it -
[00:21:20] certainly looks like we're missing out on something huge, but it turns out that's
[00:21:24] not entirely the case. as matter of fact, parts the
[00:21:27] lucutive business is generated by this AI boom does
[00:21:31] actually benefit companies here in Europe, because has this immense
[00:21:35] demand for components or cooling systems, for energy
[00:21:38] supplies and much of this comes actually from European
[00:21:42] manufacturers, cements, for example, they're offering energy
[00:21:46] management for data centers, the companies spinof Siemens energy.
[00:21:50] gas turbines and transmission technology and we have energy
[00:21:54] provider every, they're building entire gas power plants
[00:21:58] for some these US-based data centers, they also
[00:22:01] experts in battery storage, renewables or so, and then we have a
[00:22:05] company like construction giant hog thief that is actually putting up
[00:22:09] the very buildings that house data centers in the US,
[00:22:12] there a lot of smaller companies as well that are currently
[00:22:16] selling billions worth of goods and services to you
[00:22:20] as companies to equip these data centers, so could
[00:22:23] Germany be a long-term winner of this AI boom? does it look like
[00:22:27] it? yeah, in it definitely looks like large
[00:22:31] parts the German economy can actually benefit, but with any
[00:22:34] boom of course is also the risk of bust, and so
[00:22:38] it is with artificial intelligence and the data sector as well.
[00:22:42] we've already seen shares of some AI chipmakers drop recently,
[00:22:45] mostly out of fear that some the tech companies may have
[00:22:49] overextended. themselves with their investments, however, for
[00:22:53] now, none the German companies fear that the
[00:22:56] rapid business growth here that we're seeing in that sector
[00:23:00] might come to an end anytime soon. the CEO of energy provider
[00:23:04] Rve for example, he just said that he believes that the US is
[00:23:08] actually just bell weather here for the industry and that electricity
[00:23:12] demand will accelerate in other markets as well,
[00:23:16] so for now we're seeing lot of optimism and some comp
[00:23:20] like i said, they're making good money on AI here, even if most the
[00:23:24] data centers are not actually being built
[00:23:46] just have the payroll, the jobs payroll, farm payroll.
[00:23:50] from the United States that's out and uh well
[00:23:53] unfortunately this show shows that um the US
[00:23:57] economy unexpected unexpectedly shared
[00:24:01] 23,000 jobs in July and
[00:24:04] unemployment rate call slightly to 4.1% from
[00:24:08] 4.2%. um economists that anticipated a growth
[00:24:12] of 8500 jobs but of course we now see that they lost
[00:24:16] more jobs uh 23,000 so that's
[00:24:20] just out now, we know that market have been waiting for
[00:24:24] it, so the US market will most probably react to that saying that
[00:24:28] is early hours of trading for the United States and
[00:24:31] then on on Monday of course we will get uh more
[00:24:35] reactions to this uh job shared in
[00:24:39] the United States and
[00:24:49] to see that President Donald Trump's cryptocurrency holdings, they are coming
[00:24:53] under renewed ethical scrutiny and lawmakers are debating
[00:24:57] the clarity act, bill designed to establish
[00:25:01] regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. The
[00:25:05] legislation has become entangled in concerns of a
[00:25:08] potential conflict of interest because of Trump's
[00:25:12] significant financial stick in
[00:25:15] cryptoventures. That's a one story negotiators
[00:25:19] are considering six provision that could require senior public
[00:25:22] officials, including the president, to divest certain
[00:25:26] crypto-related interest or place them a
[00:25:30] blind trust, and we know that President Trump and his family
[00:25:33] members are very well uh in the crypto space,
[00:25:37] so we'll see what comes out of that. also, July has become the second worst
[00:25:41] month of 2026 for cryptocurrency theft
[00:25:45] after Harker stole an estimated
[00:25:47] 247.4 million dollars
[00:25:51] and the attacks spand, everything from hardware wallets to bridges to
[00:25:55] lending protocols and trading platforms, they were all
[00:25:59] affected in this,
[00:26:00] and then we moved to Russia where... Russia's federal
[00:26:03] security service has rated several a cryptocurrency exchange
[00:26:07] offices in Moscow as part of investigation into alleged
[00:26:11] money lending laundering involving
[00:26:14] stolen funds so those are the stories making the headlines
[00:26:18] from the crypto space