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20260808 180000 UTC
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[00:00:36] oh of good evening and welcome to another edition of capital market live on
[00:00:40] of channels television, we're going to be analyzing the first trading week of
[00:00:44] august that's over um now and we're going to move into the
[00:00:48] other parts um of augus, but first off let's
[00:00:50] of um kick off now with what played out with global markets that we track we see for
[00:00:54] European stock markets the open the final trading day
[00:00:57] of the week in positive territory with the stock 600 benchmark up
[00:01:00] by 0.24% uh after about 8:15
[00:01:04] of a.m. then we see at
[00:01:05] a close of trade on friday the 400 did close in the green
[00:01:09] of 0.31% up dacks in germany
[00:01:12] 0.69% higher than the CAC4 in
[00:01:15] France 0.17% up
[00:01:17] 8,714 points definitely we did see lot
[00:01:21] of sentiment there dragging the indexes up also for the trading
[00:01:25] week uh in Europe now we see for Asia Pacific markets uh was said to open
[00:01:29] mix on Friday on higher oil prices after Iran published
[00:01:33] a restrictive draft plan for the straight of Ramos now we see the
[00:01:36] Japan Japan's nick 825 that was post to
[00:01:40] decline you know slightly but if we move over to Asian markets there we
[00:01:44] did see mix sentiment the nike down 0.12% on
[00:01:48] a Friday the shagai compas
[00:01:49] it 1.02% higher and the hangsing index um
[00:01:53] 0.5 4% to the good flip over to US
[00:01:57] of markets
[00:01:58] of now I will
[00:01:58] see they were all
[00:01:59] up on Friday. with a tech heavy nasdaq there
[00:02:02] 1.30% advance um for the uh for the
[00:02:06] of trading day, it was also green for the whole trading week, most
[00:02:09] of them were up about two to three to 5% for these markets, the
[00:02:13] S&P 500 0.62% higher so was it was great
[00:02:17] for um US markets, that's for
[00:02:19] of this trading week, the first one
[00:02:22] of in of august. let's flip over to commodities now, they delivered the sharply
[00:02:25] of mixed performance this week with precious metals rallying while all
[00:02:30] prices that came under significant pressure, even though we did
[00:02:33] see um oil rising from about
[00:02:36] Wednesday um this week for gold the whole trading week was
[00:02:40] up 7.44% uh breaking the
[00:02:43] of $4,300 level there was this see silver there
[00:02:47] $63.47 per house up a full
[00:02:50] 10.23% actually outpacing um
[00:02:54] gold
[00:02:55] of because you on some
[00:02:55] of the trading days there we did see um we did see gold i'll pay
[00:02:59] sil uh
[00:03:00] but now for the whole trading week silva did better
[00:03:04] of 10.23% higher then for oil we see brent there
[00:03:07] 9.16% down for the whole trading weeki a
[00:03:11] big 11.20% um drop there closing
[00:03:15] that 77 definitely on
[00:03:19] the back of deescalation but versus still trying to
[00:03:22] understand
[00:03:23] of um what's
[00:03:25] of happening around the state of hormoz and the war in Iran you know at this point
[00:03:28] still trying to figure it out. but that's that's the the first trading week
[00:03:32] of August, that's
[00:03:34] of how - major uh commodities traded for this week was quite
[00:03:37] mixed um right there all right let's move
[00:03:39] in to the equities market now uh end
[00:03:44] of of the week uh marginally higher with barging hunting in first oldco zen
[00:03:48] Nigeria helping to offset significant losses in
[00:03:51] ETI sugar and trans core the NGX
[00:03:55] allsia
[00:03:55] of index was by 0.1% week on week to
[00:03:58] 245,000 573 points taking year today
[00:04:02] games to 57.8%. trading volume also
[00:04:06] increased by 9.1%, although trading
[00:04:10] value that plungeed
[00:04:15] of by 64.7%. the banking sector led gains rising 2.4% while insurance and consumer goods stocks i
[00:04:19] came under lot of pressure
[00:04:21] so we see the the load gainer for the week there 2.3%
[00:04:24] advance that's the banking counter uh then we see the lacks of consumer
[00:04:27] goods, industrial goods ' the rest all
[00:04:31] of in the red, but insurance there,
[00:04:33] of the drop lot there, about
[00:04:34] 3.31%. all right, we see the Nigerian
[00:04:38] of Exchange, they're setting the site even higher with
[00:04:42] of the NGX group, CEO, Mr. Timmy,
[00:04:45] projecting that the market value of
[00:04:49] listed companies could reach
[00:04:51] of 230 of trillion
[00:04:54] of nira, and that's by the end of
[00:04:57] of 2026, of the projection
[00:04:58] of comes as the market is exp. significantly with listed
[00:05:02] of equities now valued about 160 trillion
[00:05:06] nara up from roughly 30 trillion now in
[00:05:09] 2023. Mr. says: major
[00:05:13] anticipated listings including uh the dangute
[00:05:17] refiner alongside you know sustained investor
[00:05:20] interest could drive the next leg of growth
[00:05:24] so quite a quite an ambitious target there um looking
[00:05:28] at the the market cap projection of 230
[00:05:32] trillion nara by the end of 2026 well we've seen so
[00:05:36] much um so far so it doesn't seem that far
[00:05:40] off you now if you look at it from where we are ' right now
[00:05:43] all right, let's unpack the training week and some the big headlines
[00:05:47] uh from this uh week, joining me now is
[00:05:50] uh Mr. Kudus Adebar is a research analyst at DLM
[00:05:54] securities and it joins me right here in the studio to analyze what has
[00:05:58] played out so far and maybe what to expect um
[00:06:01] next week, great to have you on the show, yes you're welcome
[00:06:05] sir, yeah so uh quite an interesting targets we
[00:06:09] have here, 230 trillion that's what
[00:06:13] is saying the market value could hit by the end of
[00:06:17] 2026, what does this mean for investors?
[00:06:21] if this actually happens,
[00:06:22] you know, in your opinion? okay, uh, in my opinion i
[00:06:26] think um, this is exactly shows
[00:06:30] how um, how strong the market is currently, and i
[00:06:34] think this value is achievable, um, because
[00:06:38] um, when we look at um, by next month, by
[00:06:41] september and... we should have some list in the like of dangute
[00:06:45] refinery will be listed so adding that to
[00:06:48] the share index to the market, it's
[00:06:52] actually going to um drive lot of activities to the market, we've
[00:06:56] seen what happened in the l of when we have the ipo um played
[00:07:00] outs um at the particular time now the listing is they have
[00:07:03] been preparing how to list the stock now i think
[00:07:07] when um the we have the listing the like of
[00:07:11] dang refine coming on board um this target is going
[00:07:15] so because the refinery now is is actually beyond just
[00:07:18] Nigeria alone, it's actually something that can actually trigger what we call the
[00:07:22] African market as a whole, so we have lot of foreign
[00:07:26] investors apart from Nigeria and other um
[00:07:30] in fact the refinery is one the biggest thing and it's actually going
[00:07:34] to rechape the markets and we see um the
[00:07:37] Johannesburg stock exchange they were actually
[00:07:40] courting refinery. you know asking for
[00:07:44] secondary listing you know at this point so we we're seeing other you know African
[00:07:48] exchanges showing interest yes you know in that listing too yes
[00:07:51] i think it's important just like
[00:07:54] what i said earlier i said um the listing the refinery
[00:07:57] is just beyond the NGX alone it's actually about the
[00:08:01] African stock exchanges all so and when
[00:08:05] we still valued comparing it currently now - we have
[00:08:09] news going around that the refinary currently supply over 20% percent
[00:08:12] jet for for the for the europe country, they can still
[00:08:16] do more with this um expansion that we going on and given
[00:08:20] the view that um the leadership for the um refinering and other
[00:08:24] corporate bodies the um structure that was been play that was
[00:08:28] being put in place i think is beyond just
[00:08:32] even african stock uh market alone is actually a
[00:08:35] global because the um how um the
[00:08:39] standard and how because our target is actually to make the
[00:08:43] refinery, the top one, like one the best
[00:08:47] refinery in the world, so uh, it's something that could actually drive
[00:08:51] our markets a positive way, right? and hopefully we get other
[00:08:55] you know big listings
[00:08:56] you know
[00:08:57] too, because i i believe we would like to see all the listings after the danguter
[00:09:00] refinery, yes also they there is also a market that probably
[00:09:04] in 2028 you can have the like of npc to listen
[00:09:08] right by
[00:09:08] that particular period so it actually shows that um "we have
[00:09:12] some kind of um strong investor confidence in the markets
[00:09:16] currently. all right, all right, let's let's look at the trading week, that's the
[00:09:20] first one um for the month of August, we did see it
[00:09:24] ended marginally up um for the trading week uh,
[00:09:28] but we did see lot of rotation
[00:09:30] you know around sectors there, but the banking counter still managed to out
[00:09:34] perform
[00:09:34] you know for the sectors that we track. what do you think really drive sentiments you
[00:09:38] know this week in your opinion? okay, in my opinion st."
[00:09:42] from when we look at the top giners that we have, i think one them is the
[00:09:46] um first odko that we have, so
[00:09:50] um the major reason is due to the fact that the chairman
[00:09:54] the bank m actually said
[00:09:58] he have this opinion of having a controlling units of
[00:10:02] um the particular bank and these have actually give -
[00:10:06] mots we call like actually give some kind of investor
[00:10:10] confidence in that particular sector.
[00:10:12] because it stake currently, i think you have
[00:10:16] over um 26% stick and that
[00:10:20] is above starget controlling unit of like
[00:10:23] half of it is currently. at the halfway so I believe
[00:10:27] that because the sentiment that oh we have a
[00:10:31] prominent shareholders in the lack of one the biggest bank that we have
[00:10:35] in Nigeria which is the first odko um this
[00:10:39] actually give attention to the banking sectors seen
[00:10:42] the we are currently at the post um recapitalization um
[00:10:46] period whereby um banks needs to
[00:10:50] work more on how they use the new capital
[00:10:54] to get a quality um to generate a a good
[00:10:58] revenue with the new capital that they have so the
[00:11:02] post um the post recapitalization the
[00:11:05] banking sector is something that is still remains
[00:11:09] strong given the fact that even first odco um
[00:11:13] even still just completes the second trenches the
[00:11:16] recapitalization and other banks who are trying to meet
[00:11:20] up there is a market we have other banks like sterling that
[00:11:23] may actually have this kind of share reconstruction and the like of things,
[00:11:27] so there are a lot of sentiments in the banking sectors and just like
[00:11:31] do said that the banking sector are actually one the like the
[00:11:35] bedrock to the stock to the nigerian stock
[00:11:39] markets currently but what do you think is happening with insurance?
[00:11:43] you know they also had their recapitalization deadline that was for
[00:11:46] 31st of july so that has come and gone, we know the sector was
[00:11:50] rallying for the month of july but now we're seeing a big pull back
[00:11:54] for. there 3.31% for this week, is this a sign of
[00:11:58] things to come for the insurance counter this this month? oh,
[00:12:02] well on looking at the insurance sectors, yes,
[00:12:05] currently, we have 43 insurances that have met up the
[00:12:09] recapitalization, why we have orders that are still on
[00:12:13] reviewed, so although we have the likes that was claimed that they have
[00:12:17] actually met the recapitalization, but looking at the insurance in
[00:12:21] Nigeria, the sectors have been one the sectors that I think need
[00:12:25] more attentions um because um there is no enough
[00:12:28] confidence even looking at the lack their business
[00:12:32] model sometimes something that i think
[00:12:36] um investors are still have to um reassess it
[00:12:39] even this recent um half year resort that was
[00:12:43] released from some them was not really impressive i think that is one the
[00:12:47] reason what happened and the client of taking profit from the likes the one
[00:12:51] that have actually it that have over um 100%
[00:12:55] yet to date um gain i think that is just what's
[00:12:59] happened i believe that with this recapitalization that we have we could have a
[00:13:02] slight change in the sectors right
[00:13:05] so do you think do you see any catalys for this
[00:13:08] counter um going forward you know in
[00:13:12] 2026 is there a catatal is there that could actually drive it up yes one
[00:13:15] of it is that we have um a turnover in their um in the
[00:13:19] like the enies so this can actually change um
[00:13:23] the investors sensiment and also um when you look at
[00:13:27] for income investors, majority these insurance company
[00:13:31] only pays like when you look at their dividend yield so
[00:13:34] something small compared to the banking sectors and this is actually
[00:13:38] due to
[00:13:38] the fact that their revenue they have they ensure a whole lot of
[00:13:42] like high cost and the the other things like that
[00:13:46] so there are still opportunity in the like the insurance
[00:13:49] given this recent capital recapitalization that we just have all
[00:13:53] right so you know going to next week, what are you expecting,
[00:13:57] what are you expecting investors will do
[00:13:59] you know in the market next week? okay, by next week, i think um
[00:14:03] investors are currently um assessing
[00:14:07] um complain based on their earnings, so one the things that we actually
[00:14:11] drive markets next week is um this um
[00:14:14] the previous um because last week we have lot of um rebalance in the
[00:14:18] market due to the fact that majority the complaint release the half year results
[00:14:22] so i think um this week in the
[00:14:26] in the sectors and in the market general, so we have some kind
[00:14:29] of rebalance in due to the fact that we have to do
[00:14:33] revaluation on stocks that actually meets the target price
[00:14:37] of of investor expectation right, and and looking at the
[00:14:41] banking counter, we know first hold again appeared
[00:14:44] top um for the for the trading week,
[00:14:48] is there still room for first hold call in your opinion, came in third
[00:14:52] there, closing up 12% for this week?
[00:14:55] 145 now is does this one still have room?
[00:14:59] does it still have room in this month? uh, well yeah, i think
[00:15:03] one the key drivers to um the rally of
[00:15:07] first, first is just due to the fact that um
[00:15:10] the prominent shielder buying the shares is actually one the reason why
[00:15:14] people actually because that
[00:15:15] are and the confidence they have in this
[00:15:19] prominent shielders so is actually the one the key
[00:15:22] drivers but i think it's important for. us
[00:15:25] to um assess the company based on their um
[00:15:29] dividend policy valuation in general, look at the um
[00:15:33] how their credit rs is being improved and look at the
[00:15:37] capital adequation and the rest investor just needs to
[00:15:40] revalue the stock and just not just based
[00:15:44] on um emotional based on sentiment right so
[00:15:48] because um we have a prominent shell that buying let me to just
[00:15:51] buy i think that is i think you call that swimming with the
[00:15:55] whale yes exactly you know at this point all right we'll definitely
[00:15:59] keep watching that one but we'll take a break now uh when we come
[00:16:03] back we'll analyze
[00:16:04] you know what to expect with the new rules on the NGX us a moment,
[00:16:08] just stay with
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[00:17:47] Welcome back, we're still analyzing the trading week and what to expect you,
[00:17:51] going into this month of um August, I still have with me Kudus,
[00:17:55] the research analyst at DLM security, still with me right here in the
[00:17:59] studio, uh, great conversation um so far, but we
[00:18:02] we have new rules you know from the NGX,
[00:18:06] um,
[00:18:07] so it's the... minimum price movement rules at this
[00:18:11] point
[00:18:11] so to say if a stock price is around a thousand
[00:18:15] and above minimum trade volume with 1000 units
[00:18:19] to actually move the share price then if it's a 500
[00:18:23] n to 999 n you need 5000 units
[00:18:27] volume below 500
[00:18:29] n000 units tell me
[00:18:33] about this what what does this change you know
[00:18:37] market in your opinion? okay, so in my opinion i think this
[00:18:41] is um the new um the planned NGS
[00:18:45] reformed on um equity pricing
[00:18:48] methodologies, so and i think this is actually
[00:18:51] important because it's address two things majorly the
[00:18:55] market structure and price discovery so and i
[00:18:59] think the major reason for this is just to
[00:19:02] ensure that um what's actually move
[00:19:06] um share price. actually driven
[00:19:08] by um substantial um
[00:19:12] units like um economical value um
[00:19:15] transactions not just um small
[00:19:18] traded and small volume transaction so i think it's
[00:19:22] important for us to have this minimum threshold just
[00:19:25] to um increase um to have more effective
[00:19:29] um price discovery so that the market can actually
[00:19:33] shows um shows the true
[00:19:37] or the ' the new investor demand and supply, so let's just put
[00:19:41] it in that way, and there have also been this concern from the
[00:19:44] retail um, the retail investors said that,
[00:19:47] oh, um, this new reformed of equity pricing
[00:19:51] methodology is not good for us and the like of things like
[00:19:55] that, but the thing is that um, this is not to band um the
[00:19:59] retail investor from trading, rather is just
[00:20:02] to actually um enable the markets
[00:20:06] to give from very efficient price
[00:20:10] discovery so not and to reduce and price
[00:20:14] distruction from small volume trade, so it's
[00:20:18] actually does it stop, does it stop pump and
[00:20:20] dumps? is this what you need? because
[00:20:24] you know we've heard of instances where you just few traders are able
[00:20:28] to move the price uh yes i think that is one the constant from the
[00:20:32] retail investors that - that um because you know
[00:20:35] majority the retail investors this. capital markets, so
[00:20:39] majority them um react to any small
[00:20:42] movements in the markets and if we don't have this kind
[00:20:46] of reformed, it's can actually stop up from certain.
[00:20:50] because you see domestic and global um foreign
[00:20:54] investors institutional investors need um what to call
[00:20:57] reliable pricing mechanics not
[00:21:01] just that any small um volume
[00:21:05] trade can actually trigger the official closing price of any stock or
[00:21:08] this i think um it's actually nice for us
[00:21:12] to have this kind of reformed and in order to just
[00:21:16] actually have to qualified our um liquidity.
[00:21:20] not just um small minor trade moving the markets but rather
[00:21:24] to see the real test of this particular
[00:21:28] um reform is just for us to see
[00:21:30] um the true price
[00:21:33] recovery
[00:21:34] that is just the key thing so i'm imagining a stock that's below
[00:21:38] 500 n you know per share doesn't mean
[00:21:42] we see
[00:21:43] you know the markets now lot of stocks hardly
[00:21:47] moving
[00:21:48] you know in price because they don't meet the 100 thous
[00:21:51] units uh that is, i think that's one the
[00:21:55] um effect that people have been looking at that
[00:21:59] oh uh what if the this i think it's better
[00:22:02] because you see a market with many small trips
[00:22:06] but unreliable price is not a
[00:22:10] healthy market no so we
[00:22:13] need um a market that can
[00:22:16] actually be moved by a strong like
[00:22:20] transactions that can actually move it, so this can actually give
[00:22:24] um people to rely on the pricing um makeness that we
[00:22:28] have in the market, so if any stock would not actually
[00:22:31] mean that treasure, if it doesn't move, i think it's because we
[00:22:35] not have a substantial um reasonable amount of demand and
[00:22:39] supply for the stocks and i think it's better although so this
[00:22:43] could impact some stocks negatively, yes
[00:22:46] particularly the tiny trader stocks, the tiniest
[00:22:50] trader stock when be affected in short term, but in long time it's
[00:22:54] actually it to give very good and price discovery for
[00:22:58] there right, so if if they don't get this threshold then
[00:23:02] they'll definitely stay at that price exactly for a long
[00:23:05] a long time except there is huge demand
[00:23:06] you know for that stock you know going forward so guess
[00:23:10] the they have to you know put on their thinking caps you at this point for
[00:23:14] stocks like that and it's it's actually also assist um retail investors
[00:23:18] to um focus on um valuations of
[00:23:22] stocks rather than just um chasing any small
[00:23:26] movements in the stock price and we have seen a lot that happen last
[00:23:29] week in such a way that a particular stock gained um today
[00:23:33] and tomorrow just a minor um change within the
[00:23:37] price the next day we have seen it's going the other way
[00:23:41] around so i think it's because people don't know
[00:23:45] actually know how to value a stocks they don't know
[00:23:47] how to value a company very well and I think this reform will
[00:23:51] actually led the retail investors to look into the aspect
[00:23:55] of um how to actually value a stock rather than
[00:23:59] just chasing any small movement in the stock so I guess all those meme
[00:24:02] stocks and zombie stocks are some people call
[00:24:06] them they might not get any attention in this period all right
[00:24:10] let's move to another matter now another headline um this
[00:24:13] week we've talked about uh
[00:24:15] you know the recent moves with Mr. Femilla but
[00:24:19] um you did buy 18 billionaire worth
[00:24:22] again you know recently and you did talk about
[00:24:26] you know investors um shouldn't you don't follow
[00:24:29] blindly yeah because you see the big investor
[00:24:33] moving and you're now you know following and also you buy but
[00:24:37] this is this seems like a really strategic move you in my mind
[00:24:40] another 18 billion what is what does this mean about
[00:24:44] his um how he believes in this stock what is it
[00:24:48] showing us - well actually shows the level
[00:24:51] of confidence and conviction that he has for
[00:24:54] the for the um company and i think um firstco in
[00:24:58] general need someone like him in that particular
[00:25:02] space because um looking at one the
[00:25:05] objective is um looking at um this um the
[00:25:09] NGs and capital restore plant that
[00:25:12] i have so i believe in these um banking
[00:25:15] sectors
[00:25:17] he he's also nonegable in that particular and he has seen something
[00:25:21] that probably majority of um retail investors could not
[00:25:24] even say and he's actually have very good plan on
[00:25:28] structuring um the the the
[00:25:31] banks as like the company as a whole so i think
[00:25:35] it's is it's important for him to do that all right so
[00:25:39] you know going into um next week we're still expecting more earnings yes
[00:25:43] um at this point some the other you know big banks the supposed to release their
[00:25:47] earnings uh come next week what do you seeing you
[00:25:50] know
[00:25:51] going further
[00:25:52] for for these you know tier one bags you think the earnings are going to beat
[00:25:55] expectations what's your expectation well
[00:25:59] um it's it's most likely. that
[00:26:03] we have um a bigger in due to the fact that
[00:26:07] looking at the interest rate is still at the high side, the
[00:26:11] lending rate is still currently at the high side and yes
[00:26:14] i believe that we should have something like that better
[00:26:18] in
[00:26:19] is and also one
[00:26:20] the things that could actually assist them is that um their dividend
[00:26:24] policy also if some them can actually um increase their dividend
[00:26:27] because of this recapitalization have actually caused shared um
[00:26:31] disolution so so investors, people that have been
[00:26:34] saying, let's say for example 5ive as
[00:26:38] dividend before, do not want to expect to get something
[00:26:42] lower,
[00:26:42] even though some did
[00:26:43] not even participate in the recapitalization program, so I think these are
[00:26:47] things that you assist, okay, we'll
[00:30:31] Hello and welcome to another exciting edition the aspora network,
[00:30:35] the program that celebrates Nigerians making remarkable strides around the
[00:30:39] world. I'm tenyor. On today's program, we
[00:30:43] meet Caleb Adibayo named among the American bar
[00:30:46] association's top 40 young lawyers. He reflects on his
[00:30:50] journey from Portarkot to New York, the obstacles he overcame to
[00:30:54] attend NU and his ambition to help finance
[00:30:58] Africa's clean energy.