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20261011 170000 UTC
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[00:00:30] Today my take is entitled better late
[00:00:33] of than never, the 30-day f relief
[00:00:37] or is it fake rehazar? Last
[00:00:41] Thursday, October the 8th, the federal government
[00:00:44] through the coordinating minister for the economy,
[00:00:47] That announced what it carefully refused to
[00:00:51] call a
[00:00:52] of subsidy, a 30-day petrol price discount
[00:00:56] at NMPC retail stations nationwide.
[00:01:01] now NNPC retail, according to the plan, we
[00:01:05] forgoe its profit margin and sell at
[00:01:08] cost, if landing cost is
[00:01:10] 1,300, you buy in those
[00:01:14] stations for
[00:01:15] 1,300 nar.
[00:01:19] of now no draw down from the federational account they
[00:01:22] say, and it is called an independence
[00:01:25] season
[00:01:31] at 1,350 nar
[00:01:34] of landing cost sailing to be revealed monthly, on
[00:01:38] paper they call it relief, but in reality
[00:01:42] is it
[00:01:43] a relief or is it fake
[00:01:47] rehazar or is it a little too
[00:01:51] late?
[00:02:00] discount, whatever name is call,
[00:02:02] of did not come from sudden burst of
[00:02:05] empathy by the tun administration, it
[00:02:09] came because artiku
[00:02:11] abubakar forced it
[00:02:14] practically. on October 1st, former vice
[00:02:18] a president, who is the presidential candidate of ADC, proposed
[00:02:22] caped budgetted production subsidy to sell
[00:02:25] crude below international price to domestic
[00:02:29] refinery. including dangute and other modular
[00:02:32] refinaries is running
[00:02:35] of mate, has been heat,
[00:02:38] sell at
[00:02:40] of 10,000
[00:02:40] of if
[00:02:41] of what price is 15, he suggested. now within
[00:02:45] 7 days a government that said subsidy is gone
[00:02:49] forever, announced discount at
[00:02:52] cost, an article camp mocked, like
[00:02:55] doll student, they responded, you copied my subsidy proposal.
[00:03:00] are poorly now, whether you like him or not,
[00:03:04] article has made the f prize a
[00:03:07] 227 presidential poll
[00:03:10] question, and he has forced a consistent
[00:03:14] reaction from
[00:03:15] the federal government, so clearly
[00:03:17] of democracy is winning. second point, now is
[00:03:21] this last minute empathy
[00:03:23] indeed? for three years, Nigerians have
[00:03:27] been told, be patient,
[00:03:30] sacrifice, reforms we pay.
[00:03:33] of now on September the 30th, the NLC
[00:03:37] said, we stand at the cross roads of a
[00:03:41] full scale survivor crisis. petrol now
[00:03:45] selling at 1,430 or higher, he
[00:03:48] said, and with campaigns kicking off,
[00:03:52] and the president himself being to start October 24 in
[00:03:56] Kaduno, the government suddenly discovers:
[00:04:00] that NMPC can sell that cost for 30
[00:04:02] of days, if you can do cost price in
[00:04:06] October 2026 and 2025 when Nigerians
[00:04:10] were really being crushed, we are
[00:04:14] thinking that this is not a government that just
[00:04:16] realized that as the election is coming
[00:04:20] closer, the suffering
[00:04:22] of the people is now becoming compelling. third
[00:04:27] of point, too little, too late and
[00:04:30] of low, why? for whatever it is worth and
[00:04:34] whatever it is called, this discount is certainly too
[00:04:37] low and likely going to be insignificant. let's do
[00:04:41] the maths or arithmetic, whichever one you prefer.
[00:04:45] market price is 1,430,
[00:04:49] even 1,450 in some places, so
[00:04:53] NLPC cost is about 1,360 to
[00:04:56] 1,364, so the so call relief is
[00:05:00] 66 n at best 90 now that
[00:05:04] is less than 7% discount for
[00:05:08] a transporter who burns 30,000 fair
[00:05:12] daily. that is just about 1,400
[00:05:15] savings, we that reduce the fear from
[00:05:18] ojota to hodi, no
[00:05:22] now, for family already crushed by food
[00:05:24] inflation, what with 66 n
[00:05:28] had to the price of rice, you cannot
[00:05:31] offer 7% or less relief
[00:05:35] after a 300% pain and
[00:05:39] call it cushioning, okay?
[00:05:42] now it guess what, it's even limited
[00:05:46] only to NMPC retail stores, less than
[00:05:49] 50% of outlets nationwide are going to be
[00:05:53] affected, so what is a
[00:05:55] farmer or a farmer in
[00:05:58] guzo have to gain, what prevents one
[00:06:02] station from causing long quells and safety
[00:06:06] hazards while oters sell at
[00:06:09] 1,430, now one day
[00:06:12] clear in all of this, like I said earlier, democracy
[00:06:16] at least is winning. now this is my last and fourth
[00:06:20] point, the big elephant in the room is corruption, federal
[00:06:24] government says no return to subsidy, opposition says our subsidy
[00:06:27] is different, production, not importation, but none
[00:06:31] them is saying that we will jail those who bled
[00:06:35] subsidy for 20 years and make our refinaries
[00:06:39] work, either them a saying that. and this
[00:06:43] is why princess
[00:06:46] the SDP comes, he says that our four
[00:06:50] refineries are barely 50 years old and
[00:06:54] refineries in the US for instance are over 100
[00:06:58] years and still working, he argues,
[00:07:01] fix them, license 36 modular
[00:07:05] refineries, restore the 45000 barrels
[00:07:09] per day domestic allocation for crude.
[00:07:13] even promised to make the price 200 n per
[00:07:17] liter in 12 months. now you may call
[00:07:21] the 200 populist and we can debate the details of that
[00:07:25] idea, but abbious
[00:07:28] diagnosis is correct. we are crud
[00:07:31] producing nation that has refused to refine at
[00:07:35] home for a long time up until dam gote refinary came
[00:07:39] on board lately. so be the t.
[00:07:42] people or the article position, the narrative ignores
[00:07:46] corruption on both sides the debate.
[00:07:49] Nigerians, shine your eyes, like they say on the
[00:07:53] street. Buari was right and is still
[00:07:56] right. If we don't kill
[00:07:59] corruption, corruption will kill us. It has corroded
[00:08:02] many things, especially in the oil and gas
[00:08:06] sector. So let's say it again, if we don't kill corruption,
[00:08:10] especially in that sector, corruption. is going to kill us, may
[00:08:14] that day never come, and
[00:08:24] to
[00:08:24] inside sources, today i'm leading the show with the conversation uh with my very good
[00:08:28] friend who has become the spokesperson the main
[00:08:30] opposition uh, is the presidential
[00:08:34] spokesperson for the articu abu bakar campaign a
[00:08:37] lawyer and a leading nollywood
[00:08:40] actor, like to back to inside sources, mr.
[00:08:44] kenko, good to
[00:09:13] been uh uh your campaign and that the government is
[00:09:16] is is becoming really really uh exciting uh in my
[00:09:20] take today I actually gave the credit to atiko Abubakar
[00:09:24] for turning the subsidy matter into an
[00:09:28] electoral issue and it's good for democracy but I want to
[00:09:32] start with your own uh response
[00:09:36] to what it is that uh the coordinating minister the economy
[00:09:40] said
[00:09:40] you know on Thursdays he said" " that hey, look, we're going
[00:09:44] to uh make sure that there is this discount, we're going to put
[00:09:48] a ceiling, NMPC is going to be sending at cost uh,
[00:09:52] and they said very clearly that this is not a subsidy, how do you respond to
[00:10:28] my problem is that I feared that if he's incorporated
[00:10:32] into the government, APC would poison him with the
[00:10:36] allies,
[00:10:38] remember was sacked because he did
[00:10:42] not told the lie of Tinubu. Tinubu
[00:10:46] once came and declared that by August he has gotten all the
[00:10:50] revenue that they projected, whale do came and
[00:10:54] say sir, it it's just
[00:10:57] 25% the revenue was talking about this sector
[00:11:01] or this sector and from that day i knew his days we are
[00:11:04] numbered there is no way you can serve t or
[00:11:08] APC government without being a liar
[00:11:12] now they used to
[00:11:14] replace and
[00:11:16] then
[00:11:22] now has now started lying like
[00:11:26] them, can you imagine coming out to
[00:11:30] say that you're giving a
[00:11:32] discount for 30
[00:11:35] days, you acknowledge that the price was
[00:11:38] 1,500, but you're going to capit at
[00:11:41] 1,350, 50, which is the
[00:11:45] cost, landing cost, good, now what is
[00:11:49] subsidy? subsidy is defined
[00:11:53] as a fin aid or
[00:11:56] support typically provided by
[00:12:00] a government or organization and
[00:12:03] giving to an individual or
[00:12:06] business or
[00:12:08] institution or
[00:12:11] industry to reduce cost or
[00:12:15] promote social or promote
[00:12:18] social or economy goals now
[00:12:22] what were they trying to do they were trying? to reduce
[00:12:25] cost,
[00:12:27] they acknowledged by themselves that the cost was becoming unbearable for
[00:12:31] the people and they have to interven to give relief for
[00:12:35] the people, and they say it's not subsidy, then the whole idea of subsidy has to
[00:12:39] be redefined, because what he did
[00:12:43] is exactly the definition of subsidy, and
[00:12:46] now and
[00:12:48] do you why they did it to cover their shame, because they have repeatedly said
[00:12:52] that they will never bring subsidy. and article
[00:12:56] even pleaded with them, don't bother, take my
[00:13:00] idea, redeem it by whatever
[00:13:04] name for the benefit the welfare the people,
[00:13:08] because your prize is becoming
[00:13:10] unsustainable, so sorry to say
[00:13:13] this, lied when he said it was not
[00:13:16] subsidy,
[00:13:38] good, so they are copying it and because they want to hide
[00:13:41] that they are not doing it, they are making a mess of it, and let me point
[00:13:45] out this, have you noticed the danger in their own
[00:13:49] properted subsidy, they want to return to the corrupt
[00:13:53] import related subsidy that they were operating,
[00:13:56] how? NMPC is not producing any one liter of refined foil in
[00:14:00] Nigeria. Okay, so the price they are reducing is the price of
[00:14:04] imported fuel by NMPC, because
[00:14:07] NMPC is not taking from Dangote at all. And
[00:14:11] they want to reintroduce the corrupt
[00:14:14] subsidy that they were operating. If
[00:14:18] you listen to Tairo, Thaiwo said, once
[00:14:22] you go into that subsidy, you will see people now. when it is
[00:14:26] 50 million l, they will say 70 million l, and
[00:14:30] that is the subsidy they want to go in now to start
[00:14:33] saying that whatever cost they give to NMPC, those
[00:14:37] NMPC, they will tell you the profit they would have made is trillions of n, why
[00:14:41] is that different from articles home
[00:14:48] when you do that import related subsidy, you are not
[00:14:51] subsidizing the refinery outside the country that is... listen it,
[00:14:55] you are now subsidizing employment
[00:14:58] overseas, you are now encouraging the shipping
[00:15:02] that will bring in the refined product, and most
[00:15:05] probably
[00:15:06] it is still the shipping that took our crude to that refinery
[00:15:10] and is bringing it back and is part of what is contributing to
[00:15:14] the cost, high cost of fuel, why
[00:15:18] do you not just give the crew direct to
[00:15:21] dangote and dangote will refine it and give direct? to
[00:15:25] Nigerians, they said they don't have enough, no, which is a problem that you guys have
[00:15:29] to deal with
[00:15:30] anybody that's looking at it, they pledged, no, they pledged the crude to
[00:15:34] borrow, where do you think that borrowing? but it's not
[00:15:38] only them, that has been a problem for a time, what
[00:15:41] did do when they came in, they
[00:15:44] exited the death and they were paying subsidy, that is
[00:15:48] what article is going to do, but it's tougher now, okay,
[00:15:52] anyway, tell us the difference, the difference is very clear,
[00:15:55] has
[00:15:57] made it clear he is not going to subsidize any imported
[00:16:00] fuel, so returning back
[00:16:04] to the import related subsidy, with
[00:16:08] corruption, APC corruption is
[00:16:20] articu wants to bring the subsidy because uh is
[00:16:23] trying to get the funding of uh, you know
[00:16:27] subsidy people, contractors who have
[00:16:31] been you know benefiting from subsidy to finance
[00:16:35] his his campaign so that when gets there if he
[00:16:38] wins, they will then through the uh uh
[00:16:42] uh the subsidy return make the money back, so that rumor is not
[00:16:46] true, it doesn't even make sense, because
[00:16:50] that
[00:16:50] was that was the boss, that is
[00:16:51] what i'm saying, article has nothing to do with import related
[00:16:55] subsidy, whatsoever, why are you talking about
[00:16:58] is only tinubu and APC, that will still be talking
[00:17:02] about that, because they are the ones who need that corrupt money for their renewed
[00:17:06] hope campaign? you can see they are still borrowing, even as i'm talking to you, they are
[00:17:10] negotiating 1.5 billion dollars
[00:17:12] anyway,
[00:17:17] said the paradigm has
[00:17:19] shifted, we are no longer an
[00:17:22] important nation in oil, we are now an
[00:17:26] exporting nation because we have our refinery,
[00:17:29] dangote is producing and has
[00:17:33] assured he can produce all the domestic need of
[00:17:35] dinger, he said he needs about
[00:17:38] 700 thousand barrels of oil per day, he's
[00:17:42] getting about 20% locally, so he still
[00:17:46] sousing about, so
[00:17:49] what he's getting,
[00:17:53] 2%, is nothing, so he's still importing
[00:17:57] about 500,000 barrels per
[00:18:00] day, that was why i said that even if dangote
[00:18:04] starts walking, we will not get our... were
[00:18:07] cheap because he imports the crude, which
[00:18:11] is subject to the vegeries of international prices, right? he does not
[00:18:15] have power, there's no electricity, he makes independent
[00:18:19] provision for that, he does not have security, so he makes
[00:18:23] independent security for his staff and for his equipment,
[00:18:27] the interest rate is high, he borrows
[00:18:31] at about 30% or more, when you check all
[00:18:35] those things, the cost of...
[00:18:37] producing the barrel
[00:18:40] in the first place
[00:18:41] is about $30, but you guys can't
[00:18:43] think this
[00:18:46] thing, in
[00:18:48] case, you can't change all these things that you
[00:18:51] mentioned, look at what
[00:18:54] article do, assuming without
[00:18:58] considering that tin borrowed all this
[00:19:01] money,
[00:19:02] for instance to exit us from the
[00:19:05] liability that was placed on. do oil, we wouldn't
[00:19:09] have been owing anything extra, does he have that option?
[00:19:13] no, so you're saying that the four says should be paid off,
[00:19:16] nobody, nobody will compel you on how you will pay your
[00:19:20] debts, it depends on the agreement, no, whatever is the agreement, you can exit,
[00:19:24] if i'm owing you $3,00, yeah, if i'm owing you
[00:19:28] $3 billion dollars, yeah, based on my oil, yeah,
[00:19:31] why did i enter in the agreement, because needed, you needed
[00:19:35] dollars, good, yeah, so if i say giving you your $3 billion dollars, you will say
[00:19:39] no, but first of all,
[00:19:42] so so what I'm trying to tell you, assuming that in has the
[00:19:46] milk of human kindness and what he's borrowing,
[00:19:50] he borrowed to exit us from what
[00:19:53] is alien on our own oil,
[00:19:57] crude oil, in order that we can use the crude oil the way we
[00:20:01] want, we wouldn't have been owing anything more, there won't be any increase in
[00:20:21] not a problem, provided you
[00:20:25] know how to cut your cost of governance, the
[00:20:29] problem in Nigeria is the bogus
[00:20:33] governance cost of governance that tinubu is
[00:20:36] applying. a poor and distressed economy, he has 48
[00:20:40] ministers, nobody has had it before, so given any
[00:20:44] indication of how he's going to cut government, he has told he is going to
[00:20:48] is going implement report.
[00:20:58] and in his regime they cut cost of governance, in his regime they pay
[00:21:02] subsidy, in his regime they exited international death, do you learn how to be
[00:21:06] left-handed in your
[00:21:11] and he was the head the economic, good, so
[00:21:15] don't so the article subsidy is very simple, all
[00:21:19] right? supply crude right to
[00:21:23] dangote and the local refineries and
[00:21:26] supply to them at affordable
[00:21:34] just so we interrogate it so so day to the people have done that for
[00:21:38] a bit when you w doing the n for uh no they have not done
[00:21:41] that
[00:21:42] they handed it but this the major problem seems
[00:21:46] to be yes we don't have that
[00:21:50] crude enough to give local refineries all right,
[00:21:54] so how how how does the article plan respond to that?
[00:21:57] we don't have, that's just where
[00:21:59] a lot
[00:22:00] of people
[00:22:00] a lot of people who are not economically you know
[00:22:04] sound or who are mischiviously misplaying
[00:22:06] economics, they said um the 1.8
[00:22:10] million barrels is not for us only that is
[00:22:14] there a jv that what we are getting is this no they are not
[00:22:17] mischivous okay now
[00:22:21] the jv is interested in their money, yes, so if you give them money, what
[00:22:24] else? what do you mean money? what i'm saying is that if the
[00:22:28] price of oil, yes, is settled at certain dollar
[00:22:32] per barrel, yes, and good, and you pay them, would they
[00:22:36] say they will not sell to you, the government, they must sell to a
[00:22:40] company outside, when you are saying that that we can buy
[00:22:44] from them, absolutely, okay, that is that subsidy article is
[00:22:48] telling you, i see so the JV cannot insist,
[00:22:51] we are producing 1.8 million barrels and we need
[00:22:55] 7000 barrels
[00:23:17] is going to solve the problem of uh not
[00:23:20] enough domestic crew to give the
[00:23:23] refineries is to say that, okay, look, we
[00:23:26] want to take from the portion
[00:23:30] the JVC if
[00:23:33] we need to,
[00:23:34] oh well, apparently we do, that's what I'm saying, if we need to, yeah, yeah,
[00:23:38] because because because apparently we do, that's what I'm saying, if we
[00:23:41] need to, because our audience
[00:23:45] understand, good, that we will then, we will now ask the JVCs to say
[00:23:49] that, look, sir... to us that uh
[00:23:53] could
[00:23:54] you know instead of selling it internationally, that's what I'm
[00:23:57] saying, whatever must satisfy the
[00:24:00] domestic market, you must
[00:24:04] sell to the domestic market, but it will be as international
[00:24:08] price, remember means that
[00:24:11] Nigeria is good a partner to it almost like
[00:24:14] 50/50, yeah, well 60-40 here and good,
[00:24:18] so what it means? is that Nigeria has its own share,
[00:24:22] yes the JV, which is not enough, that is what I'm
[00:24:26] saying, so whatever is remaining, Nigeria has the right to say we
[00:24:30] can buy this, okay, and supply, that's the subsidy we're talking about,
[00:24:33] but if if it means discounting it,
[00:24:37] but but I'm saying that you you will buy it international, are you going to impose the price on on the
[00:24:41] gises, now even if you buy it at international
[00:24:44] price and supply to the refineries, they
[00:24:48] will still give you fuel and...
[00:24:50] you i the chiper rate because there will be no shipping that they will
[00:24:53] have to that is part of your
[00:24:58] okay am telling own subsidy that that we is must what oil
[00:25:01] good because the our production
[00:25:04] capacity pay a per days 1.8
[00:25:08] million but where are you going to get the money to pay the jvc and that is
[00:25:12] exactly
[00:25:13] going to have to pay them hold on tinubu granted 34
[00:25:17] trillion naira 2020 f alone on import
[00:25:21] weaver, so assuming you
[00:25:25] say no, reduce your imports and import
[00:25:29] only the things that are important and stop
[00:25:32] that,
[00:25:37] just giving us assumption, it's
[00:25:38] not assumption, i've told you that cost of
[00:25:40] governance, the priority
[00:25:44] is making fuel affordable, so every other
[00:25:47] thing we are spending, secondary will be secondary,
[00:25:51] okay, and I'm telling you that
[00:25:53] there are a lot of things th is doing, which
[00:25:57] is sc towards giving subsidy to the
[00:26:00] rich, to the privileged. remove
[00:26:03] it and you have already doubled the money. okay,
[00:26:07] all right, i want
[00:26:08] you to for the consequential, remember consequential
[00:26:11] adjustment in the price of
[00:26:15] crude, you will
[00:26:28] my guest was prince ad,
[00:26:33] the SDP presidential candidate and he
[00:26:36] said that look the
[00:26:39] the the refineries, our
[00:26:41] the public refinaries, the refinaries in carduno, the two in
[00:26:44] porakot and worry, he says, they
[00:26:48] can work,
[00:26:51] he he implied that the reason why they have not worked is because the government
[00:26:55] the day does not want
[00:26:56] it to work, so he said
[00:27:00] and you know, and this is one point that I have also said, and you this is going to lead my
[00:27:03] question, that is just a question of corruption that they are not
[00:27:07] allowing it to work, of course he said that is going to make it at, it's going to make
[00:27:11] sure that the f price comes to 200, by ensuring that the
[00:27:15] oil theft you know is taken care of, and then what is being
[00:27:18] storing is going to be directed to domestic crew, so everybody is looking at
[00:27:22] domestic crew, which is a good thing, but my question Ken is
[00:27:26] that what is article going to do about
[00:27:30] the corruption that has happened? in the oil
[00:27:34] sector, especially specifically regarding the
[00:27:36] subsidy, not just that is going to, he says he's going to
[00:27:40] end it, is article going to impose
[00:27:43] consequences for the past cities
[00:27:46] can, good, first of all, let me
[00:27:50] agree withole that it is
[00:27:54] corruption that cripple the oil
[00:27:56] industry,
[00:28:02] nation on the floor the senate that there is
[00:28:06] 210 trillion unaccounted for by
[00:28:09] NMPC, as matter of fact, they issued
[00:28:13] the bedge warrant for the
[00:28:17] previous MD of NMPC, alive for
[00:28:20] dead, this is own statement, and in the
[00:28:24] general senate, the senator
[00:28:27] senate made him to withdraw the bench
[00:28:31] warrant.
[00:28:32] "i wanted to know when corruption is
[00:28:34] systemic,
[00:28:37] sorry, can you imagine that tinubu's
[00:28:41] government
[00:28:43] has invested more than 1.5 billion
[00:28:47] dollars and $3 billion dollars if you go
[00:28:51] back to buhari's regime
[00:28:54] and the defineries did not work and they are not working and you
[00:28:57] think is not enough to
[00:29:00] probe." what i
[00:29:04] saying? when removed subsidy first time, told
[00:29:08] him reverse it, because your refineries are all
[00:29:11] dead, so you cannot remove subsidy when you are importing
[00:29:15] 100% to Nigeria,
[00:29:18] and the currency, your currency is not
[00:29:21] strong, and everything is subject to the dollars, that
[00:29:25] this will be on sustainable, so what is happening
[00:29:29] now today is that?
[00:29:33] is right, the refineries must work,
[00:29:37] because I remember I told then that when you remove something is when all the
[00:29:40] refinaries are working, so that you be sure that the
[00:29:44] local production has started operating
[00:29:48] and they are competing, I said, don't do it without
[00:29:51] competition, two things I recommended, let
[00:29:55] there be the refineness all be working so that you saturate the system with
[00:29:59] supply and remove monopoly, yeah if you
[00:30:02] check now, we are still talking about monopoly a little
[00:30:05] bit, because dangote is the only force, yeah, that is why the
[00:30:09] price is still there, so what we are saying,
[00:30:13] remember that, when they
[00:30:17] wanted to go, they privatized the refineries
[00:30:21] to this dangote, if dangote had taken those
[00:30:25] refineries six months, they would have said walking, he built new
[00:30:28] one from scratch that is r. as one
[00:30:32] the highest in the world for about the years, the
[00:30:36] years, so you can imagine already existing one, and
[00:30:40] by that time the we are not yet obsolid, yeah, so what
[00:30:44] article will do from the one,
[00:30:48] and it's not going to be like tin, okay, immediately articu is
[00:30:51] elected, he has about three, four months before
[00:30:55] bewarning, he will continue his
[00:30:57] consultation,