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20261012 090000 UTC
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[00:00:04] of
[00:00:09] of a
[00:00:43] It's 10 a.m. a weekday, it's time to do business. Welcome to 55
[00:00:47] minutes of current and relevant business conversations right here on
[00:00:50] of business morning. I'm Innie John Mekua and we start business as usual
[00:00:54] from a global space where oil priz is held today on optimism
[00:00:58] about improved supply. after President Donald Trump said
[00:01:02] that Russia and Ukraine
[00:01:04] of will not be targeting each other's energy facilities,
[00:01:08] while Iran has reached out to Saudi Arabia after the Houti
[00:01:11] attacks against the kingdom and was huge
[00:01:15] one over the weekend, so for this
[00:01:19] of morning of we see that it's not, it's a red color, it's down
[00:01:23] more than half up per
[00:01:25] of 0.58%, $104.12 a
[00:01:29] barrel. and also WTI is down
[00:01:32] 0.77% to
[00:01:34] $91.14 a barrel and of
[00:01:38] course we know um there is an energy sease fire in the war
[00:01:42] between Russia and Ukraine. both parties have agreed
[00:01:45] they will not break it according to President Trump um this although was
[00:01:49] shared in the social media statement Ukrainian President
[00:01:53] Vlodom Zelenski has said in the social media that Ukraine supports the
[00:01:57] cease fire and it is important. that Russia supports
[00:02:01] it as well, prospects of more Russian Ukraine
[00:02:05] of hitting market after deal with the US have already
[00:02:09] uh reason after Trump said that Moscow will supply
[00:02:13] more than four million tons of diesel to the
[00:02:16] global market under deal that he struck with Putin
[00:02:20] during a phone call
[00:02:24] and um let's see what all of that is doing to movement around the
[00:02:28] straight of Homo. at this time, this was taken about
[00:02:32] 30 minutes ago, we see as at now in the last
[00:02:35] 24 hours, there's no ship that's transiting the
[00:02:39] straight of homos and we thought things had
[00:02:43] improved, but it doesn't look like it, however there are
[00:02:46] 140 vessels
[00:02:48] of waiting to go
[00:02:50] of of through the straight, um, 55
[00:02:52] a
[00:02:53] of of them are tankers, 15
[00:02:57] of of them uh ball carriers and others make up 70
[00:02:58] of them um when it comes to the war risk insurance that's at
[00:03:02] 7.5% at this time we've seen the worst at
[00:03:05] 8.5% and now is at 7 7.5% normal
[00:03:09] rate is 0.15% and there's been a 50 time increase
[00:03:13] when it comes to the risk premium uh in
[00:03:17] of this period and the daily throw puts we see er
[00:03:20] 0.5% off what is normal tanker spot rate at
[00:03:25] of 1,162 um and
[00:03:27] then two more than 2ous. than what is
[00:03:30] normal, then in the last eight hours we've seen US and Iran
[00:03:34] negotiations
[00:03:35] of of deadlocked, Iran claims US supply or us reply to
[00:03:39] the seven points reopening is insufficient, we remember
[00:03:42] that and so
[00:03:44] in - negotiation negotiations between the United States and Iran
[00:03:47] um has been stalled
[00:03:50] a for some time
[00:03:52] now and
[00:03:55] of um coming back to Nigeria how all of this is
[00:03:58] feeding in of
[00:04:00] of course um
[00:04:02] of um that's media briefing by the minister of finance and
[00:04:06] coordinating minister
[00:04:07] of the economy uh subsidy or
[00:04:10] of not, but mean we've now decided to call it federal government's 30 day field
[00:04:14] discount, that's what the
[00:04:16] in minister said we should call it, so this is
[00:04:20] it, federal government third day feel discounts um federal
[00:04:23] government
[00:04:24] of notes that the price of
[00:04:25] of petrol has increased uh from 830 to
[00:04:29] one
[00:04:31] of 400 per liter, guess that is why this conversation is coming and of course in the political
[00:04:35] scene, it's a big deal from the opposition, and now the response,
[00:04:39] i saw one
[00:04:39] of the opposition candidates saying that this is an idea stolen
[00:04:43] from them by this administration president, well i don't
[00:04:47] know about about that, and then we see
[00:04:51] of restoring petrol to its pre-reform prize, according to
[00:04:55] uh the minister uh could cost the government over
[00:04:59] 20. trillion nara annually uh because of course
[00:05:03] there's the call of restoring petrol subsidy, so
[00:05:07] the minister is noting that if that happens um it could
[00:05:11] cost the government 20 trillion
[00:05:13] so that means the government has been saving at least 20 trillion
[00:05:17] naar since um subsidy was
[00:05:20] removed um i don't think that's away from the
[00:05:23] conversations we should be having is also part of it although they would
[00:05:27] say that this has gone mostly to the state and we'll see that in just
[00:05:31] a minute and they also note that if
[00:05:35] petrol is supposed to be at 500 n for
[00:05:38] liter it will cost the government about 163
[00:05:42] millionaireira annually, and so that means that lot of
[00:05:46] bleeding going on there or would be going on there if they choose
[00:05:50] to return subsidy or to make petrol cost 500
[00:05:54] n for liter. subsidy removal has released 15.8 trillion
[00:05:58] na to the federation account between June
[00:06:01] 2023 and December
[00:06:04] 2025. And of course, we've seen this reflect in
[00:06:08] fact every month. We've seen
[00:06:10] that the state and federal government have been earning. more uh,
[00:06:13] i guess we should also put our attention there when it comes to the
[00:06:17] state and local government, because in that period from June to December,
[00:06:21] June, 2023, they have earned
[00:06:25] 10.4 trillion naras gone to state and local
[00:06:28] government, so I guess while we try to
[00:06:31] hold the government at the center accountable, we should
[00:06:35] also remember that most of this allocation
[00:06:39] go to the state and the local government. and they are
[00:06:43] closer to the people and so they also have the
[00:06:46] responsibility to account for this
[00:06:50] extra funds that they've had since subsidy has been
[00:06:53] removed, can they point to projects,
[00:06:57] services that have changed you know since they started
[00:07:01] earning more? anyway, so um the new measures that we've
[00:07:05] had this discount and not subsidy, a
[00:07:08] 30-day petrol discount at NNPC stations with priority, for
[00:07:12] public transport operators, i believe there's an app also connected
[00:07:16] to that, you know, so that's also part of it,
[00:07:20] lot of conversation going there, the walkability as usual, saying
[00:07:24] one thing um on television or to the media is one, but when we come to the
[00:07:28] reality of it, we had there's an app that is connected
[00:07:32] to that, and then people are asking how much impact really would this
[00:07:36] make, so that's it, 30 day petrol discount, if it to
[00:07:39] be um extended or not, will wait until the
[00:07:43] Thursday and it's supposed to be 1,350 for liter, that's
[00:07:47] a sealing proposed ceiling on xgun tree and landing cost
[00:07:50] subject to monthly review, so perhaps even if there'll be an
[00:07:54] extension um it might change, might be higher or
[00:07:58] lower, even though um the news is that even as at this
[00:08:02] morning lot of NNPC stations are selling above
[00:08:06] this,
[00:08:10] when forward crude sales plan. sales to domestic refineries,
[00:08:14] this has been in the conversation and we've seen dangote having to
[00:08:17] import lot of his raw material is
[00:08:21] crude feed as well as other refiners
[00:08:25] also um they've complained about feed stock
[00:08:28] and some the factors determining the price of
[00:08:32] fit stock um to them those modular
[00:08:36] refineries in the Niger delta mostly and all of that so
[00:08:39] crude sales we would need more conversation on this from minister obviously to
[00:08:43] break it down, we know he's in Thailand now, but I know um news always
[00:08:47] gets to him, cash transfers and subsidized credit, increase support for
[00:08:51] vulnerable households and small businesses, and you know
[00:08:55] while we see - improve macro numbers even getting
[00:08:58] applaud over the weekend from the world bank, the
[00:09:02] micro has not really captured that, so I guess
[00:09:06] that's what they want to achieve with this increased support, and then we also have to
[00:09:10] be careful with leakages when you talk about you some these
[00:09:13] - transfers and then also we have faster CNG roll out, of course we've been
[00:09:17] hearing the president talk a whole lot about CNG adoption, especially in the
[00:09:21] states and then the nation national strategic fuel reserve proposed to
[00:09:25] help reduce future supply disruptions, we haven't faced this a bit,
[00:09:29] mostly thanks to dangote, but of course um um should the
[00:09:33] federal government be depending on the private alone, let's elaborate more
[00:09:37] on this now - we have joining us for this
[00:09:41] conversation, chinan... He's the vice chairman African Energy
[00:09:44] Council to
[00:09:58] so first of all, let's get your thoughts,
[00:10:00] you know, on this discounts proposed by the
[00:10:04] government, the federal government, that
[00:10:06] is, yeah,
[00:10:10] so I think my thoughts here is that, It's very similar to what
[00:10:13] many Nigerians have in their minds, there's a lot
[00:10:17] of uh talk here or giving respite to ordinary Nigerians and
[00:10:21] I can completely understand and see what the federal government is doing.
[00:10:25] the question there is, is it too little
[00:10:28] and is it too late? i think that's what we should try to bear in mind.
[00:10:32] in my mind, i think 66 n palita is decent, but i
[00:10:36] just don't think it goes far enough, but there's no doubt that we can see the
[00:10:40] intention. i think there are two things as well to think about here
[00:10:44] in, one is there's a political side of this dimension, this
[00:10:47] announcement, and then there's the economic side. i really think from economic
[00:10:51] standpoint, this does not work for lot of nigerians
[00:10:54] a discount. is way too small in my opinion, but I think from a political
[00:10:58] stand, expect to see that this is being used right now
[00:11:02] as a litm test, this is the first step, it's a lipness test where they're
[00:11:05] trying to gauge the outlook of nigerians and I think other things might
[00:11:09] follow. All right,
[00:11:13] so so China and and I'm glad you brought in the part the
[00:11:16] political uh, because lot of people say this is response
[00:11:20] to um pressure from the
[00:11:42] okay, all right, it seems we have a little bit of technicals with China and
[00:11:46] there. but mean, and and chenan did bring up that part of
[00:11:50] politics, because there's also the perspective.
[00:11:54] um, that this is just because politics
[00:11:58] election is around the corner and all of
[00:12:16] the issue of politics and of course it's it's election
[00:12:19] season campaigns are on, so everything mostly
[00:12:23] would have a... political sentiment somewhere around the
[00:12:27] corner,
[00:12:28] you know, and we've seen the opposition come to say, oh, this is an idea
[00:12:32] which they started, of course, we know uh
[00:12:34] that former vice
[00:12:37] president had started this conversation to
[00:12:40] say, oh, subsidy should be returned, and all of that, and lot of people
[00:12:44] believe this is reaction to that, and may just last for as
[00:12:48] long as the election season stays, but when we
[00:12:52] look deeper into it, um, the... minister had
[00:12:55] said that this is not subsidy, it's the
[00:12:59] NNPCL letting go of some of its
[00:13:02] games. I guess questions should also be asked if the
[00:13:06] NNPCL is letting go some of its gains to give
[00:13:10] circuit to the people, what are the implications
[00:13:14] to the books the NNPCL, to the national revenue at the
[00:13:18] end the day, you know, that also should be put into
[00:13:21] consideration. I
[00:13:32] was yeah i was saying first of all that you brought in the issue of politics
[00:13:35] and that's it's it's a common conversation that's been going on because
[00:13:39] it's election season in nigeria and all of that
[00:13:43] so um do you see this is
[00:13:46] just a way to just get votes win
[00:13:50] the hearts the people reduce the complaint or do you see this
[00:13:54] as what should actually be done for the
[00:13:57] economy and for the welfare the
[00:14:00] people, yeah,
[00:14:04] so it's a very smart question that you've asked me, and I'd
[00:14:08] say two ways, Nigerians have been
[00:14:11] crying and complaining about some sort of a cirka and a bit of
[00:14:15] respite, okay, since the reform of
[00:14:17] 2023 May was done, so both the reforms, I'm talking about, one, the
[00:14:21] effect reform, but then number two, the subsidiary reform, many people have... crying, I think
[00:14:25] it's gotten worse because the conflict we're seeing in the middle east,
[00:14:29] so that cry has always been there, I think we have to acknowledge that, that's number one,
[00:14:33] so Nigerians have been crying, has the federal government done anything since? not
[00:14:37] quite, now we are less than 60 days to
[00:14:40] election, and now we're seeing some sort of an intervention being done,
[00:14:44] now whether or not you look at it from a political standpoint or
[00:14:47] not, you have to acknowledge that the timing the
[00:14:51] intervention,
[00:14:52] it it it it certainly brings a lot to think... about there's no question about the timing
[00:14:56] the intervention now, i will choose my words very carefully, but i say this, if you
[00:15:00] listen to what mr. finance minister said
[00:15:03] yesterday, he said the discount, the 30-day discount
[00:15:07] is in the first instance, and i'm not paraphrasing, i'm quoting him in
[00:15:11] the first instance, meaning this is a litmous test
[00:15:15] that will be deployed and then some sort of feedback will be seen if he needs to be rolled
[00:15:19] to month two and month three, anyway, the point here is this, he said
[00:15:23] in the first instance, so "I do think that there could be a political angle,
[00:15:27] I'm
[00:15:27] not saying that for sure, but certainly the timing makes it a bit suspect, but without
[00:15:31] a doubt it's what Nigerians need, we desperately need them, but do we
[00:15:35] need some sort of a subsidy, bring..." back, we don't, and I'm very happy that
[00:15:39] they made it very clear that this is not a kind of subsidy, they
[00:15:43] call this a margin discount, so this
[00:15:46] is a discount on margin, I.e a discount on profit,
[00:15:50] not discount on cost, and I think described this
[00:15:53] really cleverly, he did say they are not selling below
[00:15:57] market price, so the price, the cost price of petrol stays the same,
[00:16:01] what they're doing is they're waving off the profit margin of
[00:16:04] NNPC, so NNPC is taking the hit. so I think this
[00:16:08] distinction needs to be made, but I think very clearly this the timing of
[00:16:12] this really makes it very suspect, it seems like there's a bit of a political angle
[00:16:16] here, but either way, Nigerians need some sort of respide,
[00:16:20] that's 100%, we do need that. Yeah, and and let's go to the
[00:16:23] NNPC part now, um, yes,
[00:16:27] Nigerians need respect and this is not a
[00:16:30] subsidy, but you know the distrust between the government and the government in
[00:16:33] Nigeria is, the gap is really huge, so I mean a lot of questions.
[00:16:37] about to be asked, what is the benefit of NNPCL
[00:16:41] letting go some of its profits? now um, the minister
[00:16:45] had said that this is in the first instance, is there
[00:16:48] a is there um, is this something that can be
[00:16:52] sustained? uh, when we now come to the NNPCL,
[00:16:55] letting go some their profits, what does that do to our revenue as a
[00:16:59] country, as the economy, at the bottom line, where does this
[00:17:03] sit? that's a very good question, again you've asked me, the
[00:17:07] few...
[00:17:07] i want to draw the attention of nigerians to number one, do not
[00:17:11] forget that we're not operating as NNPC
[00:17:14] anymore, the company is now
[00:17:16] NNPCL, the l is very important, it's a limited
[00:17:20] company meaning is some sort of a public company, that's the implication, if it's
[00:17:24] a public company then it should be run under governance codes that is a public
[00:17:28] company, it should not have government government intervention, so I
[00:17:32] think the first contradiction is to see that the finance minister of a
[00:17:36] country is coming out. to adopt a policy and say NNPC needs to
[00:17:40] follow on the real governance, if you look at the real governance code of
[00:17:43] companies, government should be completely independent of
[00:17:47] this, because it's a it's a it's a it's a public company, at the moment, it's sort
[00:17:51] of a public company, so I think that's number one, number two is the question of
[00:17:55] if the profit of NNPC is going away because it's being
[00:17:58] incumbered and used in this discount, then how
[00:18:02] profitable will this company be, what will be the cash flow of this
[00:18:05] company, does
[00:18:06] it look attractive? for um investment, so if you're
[00:18:10] if you're someone and you want to put your money into NNPC when it finally
[00:18:13] list, does it even make sense? what does that mean for the governance of this
[00:18:17] organization? since finance minister can stand up and give a
[00:18:21] blanket
[00:18:22] uh you know sort of initiative where they can take discounts out the
[00:18:26] company and the running the company. so I think these are the questions that
[00:18:30] Nigerians need to ask. of course it puts pressure on NNPC, which means that
[00:18:34] NNPC will become even less profitable than it has been. which
[00:18:37] ultimately means also that if you're investing in NMPC it carries huge
[00:18:41] governance risk in there. i think these are the fundamental things that uh we
[00:18:45] have to consider. if it's an independent company, it should be independent to undertake
[00:18:49] what it
[00:18:55] important, he said that this is some sort of a promo, the NNPC is doing a promo
[00:18:58] i do agree you there is a
[00:19:10] and I'm glad and I'm glad and I'm glad she and that you talked about you know the
[00:19:13] fact that the future of NNPCL is
[00:19:17] is what comes to questions that the independence of it,
[00:19:21] because we are trying to be like Saudi
[00:19:24] Aramco where we would get private capital into
[00:19:28] NNPCL, and now we see the
[00:19:31] government giving like a
[00:19:35] ruling concerning the running. the company,
[00:19:39] so I mean, how much confidence can
[00:19:41] investor have on NNPCL
[00:19:44] if um, we're going to see anything can happen, the
[00:19:48] government can have an idea, and they decide that NNPCL is
[00:19:52] is what is going to be used as a buffer a
[00:19:56] company can give up some of its profits
[00:19:59] because the government needs to give buffer, and and this
[00:20:02] raises another set of questions for NNPCl as
[00:20:06] a company. at concerning its
[00:20:08] independence, so the way to
[00:20:12] think about this is this, if you are investor and you sat in the
[00:20:16] new york stock exchange, the london stock exchange, and
[00:20:20] NNPC goes into IPO, his initial public
[00:20:23] offer, it is incredibly weakened from a governance
[00:20:27] standpoint, you look at the governance the company and you'd question it so
[00:20:30] much, why, because if an intervention can be made by the
[00:20:34] state, okay, into this organization, then "there's very little
[00:20:38] independence and governance system, I think this is the kind of thing now,
[00:20:42] unfortunately, if you IPO under these sort of
[00:20:45] circumstances, you will not be able to command top
[00:20:48] dollar, you'd struggle." to command top dollar because people would
[00:20:52] import some sort of risk onto any capital that they're going to put
[00:20:56] into this organization, so I think these are some the contradictions that
[00:21:00] we see, but if I just focus on Nigerians for a split second,
[00:21:04] this here provides huge, I'd say decent
[00:21:07] opportunity for ordinary Nigerians,
[00:21:10] $66ar per liter is you know
[00:21:14] decent but not far enough, which translates I think roughly to about
[00:21:16] 3,600 for a 50 liter container. for fuel,
[00:21:20] it's not um, you know, it's not massive, but I think it's a good start, what they need to do
[00:21:24] is to explore other ways uh that this can be deepen so that the
[00:21:28] cost of transportation can go much lower and translate to real
[00:21:32] uh sugar to lot of nigerians, we haven't
[00:21:36] seen the reflection of that prize yet, so we still wait to see it,
[00:21:40] even for that um know the soccer that you you said Nigerians actually
[00:21:44] need and
[00:21:56] still on energy, Nigeria's energy sector continues to grapple with the
[00:21:59] challenge of translating its vast natural
[00:22:03] resources into reliable and affordable energy
[00:22:06] supply. The 2026 Harvard Business School
[00:22:10] Association of Nigeria Energy Conference provides a
[00:22:14] platform for addressing one the country's longstanding economic
[00:22:17] challenges, the disconnect between oil and gas production,
[00:22:21] infrastructure and power
[00:22:22] delivery.
[00:22:27] Nigeria's energy challenge goes beyond the availability of natural
[00:22:30] resources with infrastructure gaps, poor revenue collection and
[00:22:34] distribution bottanex way in on the sector. These were among the
[00:22:38] issues highlighted at the 2026 Harvard Business School
[00:22:41] Association of Nigeria Energy Conference where industry leaders
[00:22:45] called for better integration across the oil and gas and power value
[00:22:49] changes.
[00:22:50] s not the result is an energy system in which abundant
[00:22:54] resources exist with supply constraints,
[00:22:56] infrastructureds and high cost for
[00:23:00] businesses and household. oil, gas
[00:23:03] and and power cannot continue to be
[00:23:06] viewed or managed in isolation, they are interconnected as one part of an
[00:23:10] energy ecosystem. the present before us is
[00:23:13] therefore, how
[00:23:15] it's to produce money, but how to integrate our resources, policies,
[00:23:18] infrastructure and capital. for
[00:23:22] industry leaders, addressing these challenges will require more than
[00:23:26] increasing production, would also mean improving the links between
[00:23:29] energy supply, in the world energy story,
[00:23:33] Nigeria's cars should not be food no, whether it comes
[00:23:37] in the main text, depends on something every engineer in
[00:23:41] this room understands, depends on the joints, the
[00:23:45] places where one part the system meets
[00:23:49] the next. In August,
[00:23:53] speaking
[00:23:53] of
[00:24:00] sentence, we are rich in gas or we are shot
[00:24:04] in energy, policy makers announce
[00:24:07] aggressive goals including the federal government's plan to completely
[00:24:11] clear legacy debts by 2027 while we
[00:24:15] structuring market design to optimize domestic gas
[00:24:18] utilization and power. generation in power
[00:24:22] sector today we're trying to fix the that end
[00:24:25] the problem which is the distribution, we have
[00:24:28] 40%, if you don't
[00:24:32] meter how you
[00:24:35] get today, so this government in the last six months we deploy
[00:24:38] over 700, country, our plan is to
[00:24:42] deploy 7.5 million meters in the next
[00:24:46] to the
[00:24:47] years along
[00:24:48] the value chain what you will you generate
[00:24:51] u you will about
[00:24:54] 5ous and then you're able to distribute our
[00:24:57] 400 and the reason why you are doing and out the
[00:25:00] 40 you're able to distribute you collect maybe
[00:25:04] 60% and that's what
[00:25:06] in
[00:25:09] the in the cumulated debt that we have to genes
[00:25:12] i want to tell you on behalf the president today that
[00:25:16] this date are stand with us annually?
[00:25:22] "We are going to have this impact every
[00:25:25] year. For Nigeria, the challenge is not
[00:25:29] only hernessing its energy resources, but ensuring the
[00:25:33] deliver reliable power and sustainable economic
[00:25:36] value.
[00:25:41] Away from energy now, let's see how the market fair last week, we saw
[00:25:45] second week of negative clues last week, the all share
[00:25:49] lost 0. 97% at
[00:25:51] 248,363.55 equity
[00:25:55] cap closed at
[00:25:56] 161.260
[00:25:59] trillion now activity uh for last we saw was
[00:26:03] mostly negative um at the close the week
[00:26:07] we had red volume or mostly positive volume
[00:26:11] was read but value and deals closed
[00:26:14] positive looking at the sectors for last
[00:26:18] week we saw um banking for instance lost
[00:26:22] a lot um 2.64%
[00:26:26] in the red consumer goods also down more than half a
[00:26:29] percent industrial goods slightly up
[00:26:32] 0.02% insurance 1.74%
[00:26:36] oil and gas 3.85% that was
[00:26:39] huge loss that we saw uh right
[00:26:43] there top gainers we
[00:26:44] had livestock feeds triple g
[00:26:48] and um guiney insurance they were the top
[00:26:51] gainers for last week the flip side we
[00:26:54] had um critical minerals a financial
[00:26:58] corporation plc abc transport and
[00:27:02] japon for goal dragging their sectors down at
[00:27:05] the close the week and of course that last week we did talk
[00:27:09] about uh top trades access zennith and united
[00:27:13] banks and and and we saw that um the
[00:27:17] non-release of some the audits financial audit is
[00:27:21] still feeding into sentiments in the
[00:27:25] market investors sentiments we saw um
[00:27:28] drag in uh investor sentiments going all out.
[00:27:33] right there now over the weekend uh we had
[00:27:37] good news from world bank for this administration uh
[00:27:41] the new updates on Nigeria's development and it
[00:27:44] has a pretty good news somebody said this is going to be a campaign
[00:27:48] line for uh the president bolatinu
[00:27:51] administration but let's
[00:27:53] look into it uh some of those things that wall bank has
[00:27:57] observed about Nigeria's
[00:27:59] economy and um the... men since this
[00:28:03] administration started, especially with the reforms, so I
[00:28:07] think top the list is the higher oil prices which the world
[00:28:11] is facing um, eminating from the conflict in the middle east,
[00:28:15] that has improved current account balance and fiscal
[00:28:19] revenues, but they note that it has also
[00:28:22] disrupted
[00:28:23] the this inflation trend um which the country
[00:28:27] had been uh observing from
[00:28:31] 2024. uh, but the world bank notes that
[00:28:34] the real GDP is up 4.2%
[00:28:38] in the first half of 2026, not slightly
[00:28:41] above the 4% average recorded between
[00:28:44] 2024 and 2025, driven largely
[00:28:48] by services, agricultural growth, uh, it
[00:28:52] picked up and then benefiting from rebound in
[00:28:56] lifestock and fisheries, while non-oil industry
[00:28:59] growth, though moderating slightly was supported
[00:29:03] by infrastructure investments and the world bank notes that
[00:29:07] inflation fell in 2025 from
[00:29:10] 27.6% year on year to
[00:29:13] 15.2% in December, supported by tight
[00:29:17] monetary policy, reduced exchange rate volatility, and
[00:29:21] since February 2026, headline inflation we see hoved around
[00:29:25] 15.5%, and we know higher fuel prices and
[00:29:29] what's going on in the geopolitics, that's fed into that.
[00:29:33] lean season pushed prices up, the initial fuel price
[00:29:37] shock has begun to fade, core inflation resumed its decline, we saw
[00:29:41] that in the last inflation number, food inflation however remains
[00:29:44] elevated 19.6% august, that's
[00:29:48] upyear on year from 8.9% in January, another good
[00:29:52] news is in the country's current account uh there's a
[00:29:55] suppluss, it went up 12.0 billion
[00:29:59] dollars, that's about 7% uh of... the GDP in
[00:30:03] the first half of this year and that's up from
[00:30:06] 8.6% um 6.7%
[00:30:09] in the first half driven by higher oil export
[00:30:13] proceeds and lower imports and then the foreign
[00:30:16] exchange market that has remainedly low exchange rate
[00:30:20] volatility despite global risk reprising and they
[00:30:24] say that reforms have continued to broaden market participation and
[00:30:28] ease restriction on effects at the federal level um the
[00:30:31] world bank notes narrow that deficits narrowed from
[00:30:35] 5% of GDP in the first half of 2025 to 4% in
[00:30:39] the first half of this year supported by h federation revenue distributions,
[00:30:43] stronger federation, federal government,
[00:30:47] independent revenues and slow reported capital
[00:30:50] execution. moving to the state level, they note that higher
[00:30:54] federation transfer supported significant capital spending, public debt
[00:30:57] remains however moderate.