CSPAN2 — Washington Journal Seth Jones
20260806 053900 UTC
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[00:00:01] RELATIONS COMMITTEE EXAMINES THE U.S. RESPONSE TO GLOBAL SCAM
[00:00:03] OPERATIONS TARGETING AMERICANS
[00:00:05] AS INTERNATIONAL FRAUD NETWORKS
[00:00:08] REPORTED MORE THAN $1 TRILLION
[00:00:10] IN LOSSES WORLDWIDE. LAST YEAR.
[00:00:12] OVER ON C-SPAN, TWO MEMBERS OF THE SENATE GATHER AT 10 A.M. TO
[00:00:16] VOTE ON 74 OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S
[00:00:18] JUDICIAL AND EXECUTIVE NOMINATIONS, INCLUDING KEY ROLES
[00:00:22] AT FEMA, TSA, THE WHITE HOUSE
[00:00:23] BUDGET OFFICE, AND THE NATIONAL
[00:00:27] ARCHIVES. THEN, C-SPAN 3 AT 8
[00:00:29] A.M. HAS NASA ASTRONAUTS JESSICA
[00:00:31] MEIR AND ANIL MENON STEPPING
[00:00:34] OUTSIDE THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION FOR A SPACEWALK TO
[00:00:37] PREPARE FOR THE INSTALLATION OF A NEW ROLL-OUT SOLAR ARRAY, A
[00:00:41] MAJOR UPGRADE THAT WILL INCREASE THE STATION'S POWER, CAPACITY
[00:00:44] AND SUPPORT FUTURE SCIENTIFIC
[00:00:47] MISSIONS. YOU CAN ALSO WATCH LIVE COVERAGE OF THESE EVENTS ON
[00:00:50] C-SPAN NOW, OUR FREE MOBILE APP,
[00:00:54] AND ONLINE AT C-SPAN .ORG.
[00:00:58] >> WE'RE JOINED NOW BY SETH
[00:01:03] JONES. HE IS PRESIDENT OF DEFENSE AND SECURITY DEPARTMENT AT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND
[00:01:05] INTERNATIONAL STUDIES. SETH, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM. >> IT'S GREAT TO BE ON. THANKS FOR HAVING ME.
[00:01:09] >> SO A LOT TO TALK ABOUT. WE'LL
[00:01:10] START WITH IRAN. WHAT'S YOUR ASSESSMENT OF THE WAR IN IRAQ RIGHT NOW?
[00:01:14] >> WELL, I THINK THE REALITY IS
[00:01:17] THAT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS NOT
[00:01:21] OPEN AND THAT THE IRANIANS HAVE NOT HANDED OVER THE ENRICHED
[00:01:24] URANIUM THAT THEY HAVE. AND IT
[00:01:26] LOOKS LIKE, BASED ON OUR SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS, THAT
[00:01:30] THEY CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE AROUND AREAS LIKE PICKAXE
[00:01:33] MOUNTAIN, WHERE THERE IS LIKELY SOME ENRICHED URANIUM
[00:01:37] UNDERNEATH. SO TWO BIG AREAS TO
[00:01:39] WATCH IS WHETHER THERE IS ANY
[00:01:44] KIND OF AGREEMENT DOWN THE ROAD. ON IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM, AND
[00:01:47] WHETHER THE STRAITS OPEN. THERE ARE DISCUSSIONS RIGHT NOW
[00:01:50] BETWEEN THE IRANIANS AND OMAN ON SOME KIND OF A POTENTIAL TOLL
[00:01:54] SHARING. UH, BUT I THINK, UH,
[00:01:56] YOU KNOW, I WOULD SAY AT THIS
[00:01:59] POINT, IT'S NOT LIKELY THAT WE'RE NEAR A DEAL THAT IS
[00:02:02] LIKELY TO STICK RIGHT NOW. SO I
[00:02:03] THINK THE STATES, THE STRAIT
[00:02:07] REMAINS LARGELY, UH, I WOULD
[00:02:08] SAY, PARTIALLY OPEN WITH A TAX.
[00:02:12] UM, POTENTIALLY INCREASING AND DECREASING ON A DAILY BASIS.
[00:02:15] >> DO YOU THINK THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL EVER GO BACK TO
[00:02:17] BEING FULLY OPEN, LIKE IT WAS BEFORE THE WAR?
[00:02:20] >> YEAH, I THINK SO. I MEAN, THE QUESTION IS, WHAT, WHAT IS, YOU
[00:02:23] KNOW, WHAT'S THE U.S. AND THE
[00:02:26] BROADER GULF APPROACH TO DEALING WITH THE IRANIANS? I THINK
[00:02:30] EVENTUALLY IT'S IT WILL LIKELY GO BACK. UH, BUT I IT'S IT'S
[00:02:34] UNLIKELY, I THINK, IN THE SHORT
[00:02:35] TERM, TO GO BACK TO ANY KIND OF
[00:02:38] A COMPLETELY OPEN STRAIT. THE THE IRANIANS HAVE REALLY USED
[00:02:42] THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ RIGHT NOW FOR LEVERAGE. AND I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO DO IT FOR THE
[00:02:46] AT LEAST THE SHORT, SHORT TERM. >> THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS
[00:02:49] SAID THAT THIS ROUND OF TALKS
[00:02:51] WITH IRAN IS THEIR, QUOTE, LAST
[00:02:56] CHANCE. SO WHAT HAPPENS MILITARILY IF THESE TALKS COLLAPSE?
[00:02:59] >> WELL, I THINK THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OPTIONS. ONE IS WHAT
[00:03:02] WE'VE ALREADY SEEN IS THE STATUS QUO, IS THAT THE U.S. THREATENS
[00:03:06] A BIG INCREASE IN STRIKES AND
[00:03:08] THEN BACKS DOWN, OR THE U.S. DOES CONDUCT SOME LIMITED STRIKES. BUT THAT WE CONTINUE IN
[00:03:12] THIS SORT OF STATUS QUO. THAT'S
[00:03:16] ONE. A SECOND IS A REALLY
[00:03:18] SERIOUS INCREASE IN, U.S.
[00:03:21] MILITARY ACTION. I KNOW THERE'S BEEN AN EFFORT BY THE WHITE
[00:03:24] HOUSE TO PULL TOGETHER A RANGE OF GULF STATES INTO A COALITION.
[00:03:28] THAT. AND THE PRESIDENT HAS HAS
[00:03:32] SOME OPTIONS FROM U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND AND THE JOINT STAFF IN THE PENTAGON FOR AN AIR OPTION
[00:03:36] TO OPEN UP THE STRAIT FOR AN AIR
[00:03:39] PLUS A NAVAL OPTION. SO INCLUDING NAVAL SHIPS IN THAT TO
[00:03:42] OPEN UP THE STRAIT, AND THEN POTENTIALLY WOULD BE THE MOST
[00:03:45] RISKY IN AIR PLUS NAVAL PLUS GROUND OPTION. SO PUTTING GROUND
[00:03:49] TROOPS IN SOME OF THE ISLANDS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, POTENTIALLY IN THE ON THE
[00:03:53] IRANIAN COASTLINE, UH, THAT WOULD OBVIOUSLY BE RISKY, BUT I
[00:03:57] THINK THAT IS THAT IS ANOTHER
[00:03:59] ALTERNATIVE. UH, IF WE CONTINUE
[00:04:01] ALONG THE LINES RIGHT NOW.
[00:04:03] >> SO WHY HASN'T THAT HAPPENED? AND SETTING ASIDE GROUND TROOPS,
[00:04:07] BUT THE AIR IN THE NAVAL, WHY
[00:04:10] HAVEN'T WE DONE THAT YET?
[00:04:12] >> WELL, THE THE PRUSSIAN, UH,
[00:04:15] STRATEGIST AND GENERAL CARL VON
[00:04:18] CLAUSEWITZ TALKS ABOUT WAR AS A CONTINUATION OF POLITICS BY
[00:04:21] OTHER MEANS. SO I THINK THE CHALLENGE RIGHT NOW FOR, FOR
[00:04:25] SOME U.S. POLICYMAKERS, AND I THINK THE PRESIDENT AND A RANGE
[00:04:28] OF HIS ADVISORS. MARCO RUBIO, PETE HEGSETH, AND OTHERS, UH,
[00:04:31] IT'S THE POLITICAL COMPONENT OF
[00:04:34] THAT THAT I THINK RAISES
[00:04:36] CONCERNS THE U.S. COULD CONDUCT
[00:04:39] ACTIONS, UH, AIR AND NAVAL ACTIONS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.
[00:04:43] BUT THERE ARE RISKS INVOLVED. THERE ARE RISKS THAT THE
[00:04:47] IRANIANS EXPAND STRIKES OUTSIDE
[00:04:49] OF THE GULF. SO WE'VE ALREADY SEEN THEM CONDUCT ACTIONS IN EGYPT, FOR EXAMPLE. WE'VE SEEN
[00:04:53] THEM GO AFTER U.S. BASES IN JORDAN. SO THERE'S A RISK OF
[00:04:56] EXPANDING THE CONFLICT. UH,
[00:04:58] THERE'S ALSO A RISK IN CONTINUING HIGH GAS PRICES. AND
[00:05:01] THEN FINALLY, THERE'S A RISK IN AN ELECTION YEAR IN A WAR
[00:05:05] THAT'S NOT PARTICULARLY POPULAR IN THE PRESIDENT'S PARTY RIGHT
[00:05:08] NOW, EVEN AMONG SOME OF THE MAGA
[00:05:10] SUPPORTERS. SO I THINK THOSE ARE
[00:05:13] THE POLITICAL RISKS THAT HAVE, FOR THE MOMENT, WEIGHED AGAINST
[00:05:17] A BIG ESCALATION IN THE WAR. >> WELL, SPEAKING OF POLITICAL RISKS, THE WASHINGTON POST HAS
[00:05:20] THIS HEADLINE. IT SAYS TRUMP
[00:05:23] KEEPS MAKING THREATS. THE WORLD
[00:05:25] HAS STOPPED FLINCHING. AND I
[00:05:28] WONDER, POLITICALLY, IF THE THREATS THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP MAKES AGAINST IRAN SAYING, YOU
[00:05:32] KNOW, WE'RE GOING TO DO WE'RE GOING TO GO AFTER YOUR CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE. WE'RE GOING TO
[00:05:36] HAVE THE BIGGEST STRIKES SINCE
[00:05:39] WORLD WAR TWO AGAINST YOU POLITICALLY. HAS THAT BEEN
[00:05:43] WORKING IN THIS WAR? >> WELL, IT HASN'T BEEN WORKING
[00:05:47] AGAINST THE IRANIANS. I MEAN, THE IRANIANS, IT'S LET'S
[00:05:50] LET'S JUST FACE THE REALITY. THE IRANIANS HAVE FACED
[00:05:52] AGGRESSIVE SANCTIONS FOR YEARS,
[00:05:56] AND HAVE NOT BUDGED BY MULTIPLE
[00:06:00] DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICAN ADMINISTRATIONS. THEY'VE BEEN WILLING TO. AND THIS IS DEEPLY
[00:06:04] UNFORTUNATE. THEY'VE BEEN WILLING TO HAVE THEIR POPULATIONS SUFFER FROM THOSE
[00:06:08] SANCTIONS. SO I THINK THE THREAT
[00:06:09] OF ADDITIONAL STRIKES IN IRAN
[00:06:15] AND THE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY, I DON'T THINK, WORRIES THE LEADERSHIP THAT MUCH. PLUS,
[00:06:18] WE'VE ALREADY SEEN FROM WHEN
[00:06:22] OPERATION EPIC FURY KICKED OFF EARLIER THIS YEAR, THAT THE IRANIANS WERE ABLE TO WITHSTAND
[00:06:25] U.S. STRIKES, DECAPITATION STRIKES THAT KILLED THE SUPREME
[00:06:29] LEADER. THEY REPLACED HIM, AND A RANGE OF THE ISLAMIC
[00:06:32] REVOLUTIONARY GUARD REPLACED THEM AS WELL. SO THE REGIME HAS
[00:06:36] CONTINUED TO SURVIVE DESPITE THE ATTACKS. AND I THINK THEY FEEL LIKE THEY CAN CONTINUE ALONG
[00:06:39] THOSE LINES.
[00:06:42] >> HOW HOW WORRIED SHOULD
[00:06:44] AMERICANS BE ABOUT OUR DEPLETED WEAPONS STOCKPILES? DOES THIS
[00:06:47] POSE A NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT
[00:06:49] TO US, OR IS THIS SOMETHING THAT
[00:06:52] THE DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL BASE CAN, UH, CAN WEATHER? >> THIS IS A REALLY GOOD
[00:06:56] QUESTION. AND I THINK WHAT'S IMPORTANT IS TO GET SPECIFIC ON
[00:06:59] WHAT TYPES OF MUNITIONS WE'RE
[00:07:00] TALKING ABOUT. SO THERE ARE PLENTY OF MUNITIONS THAT ARE,
[00:07:04] ARE NOT, UM, AT A LOW STOCKPILE
[00:07:10] LEVEL. SMALL DIAMETER BOMBS CALLED JOINT DIRECT ATTACK MUNITIONS. THEY CAN BE STRAPPED ON TO DUMB BOMBS. THEY GUIDE
[00:07:14] WEAPON SYSTEMS. UM, AND THEN THERE ARE A RANGE OF OTHER LONG
[00:07:17] RANGE STRIKE WEAPONS THAT THE US
[00:07:20] HASN'T USED. WHAT IS A PROBLEM
[00:07:22] ARE TWO TYPES. ONE IS DEFENSIVE MUNITIONS. SO THINK INTERCEPTORS
[00:07:26] THAT GO ON THAD'S OR, OR, OR
[00:07:31] PATRIOT AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS. THE US USES THEM THROUGHOUT THE
[00:07:33] GLOBE TO PROTECT ITS BASES IN
[00:07:35] PLACES LIKE JAPAN. BASES IN OKINAWA, YOKOSUKA, SOUTH OF
[00:07:39] TOKYO, AS WELL AS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THOSE INTERCEPTORS ARE
[00:07:42] EXTREMELY LOW. THEY'RE ALSO LOW
[00:07:44] FOR PATRIOT SYSTEMS, AND THOSE SYSTEMS ARE ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL
[00:07:48] FOR BALLISTIC MISSILES, IN PARTICULAR, OF WHICH THE
[00:07:51] IRANIANS HAVE. THE RUSSIANS HAVE, THE CHINESE HAVE. SO THOSE
[00:07:54] ARE LOW. AND THEN, JUST BRIEFLY,
[00:07:57] THE U.S., UH, NUMBERS OF SOME OFFENSIVE MISSIONS, TOMAHAWK
[00:08:00] LAND ATTACK, CRUISE MISSILES,
[00:08:03] AND THEN, UH, THE JASSM EXTENDED
[00:08:05] RANGE, UH, THEY'VE BOTH BEEN USED EXTENSIVELY IN THE IRAN
[00:08:08] WAR. BOTH STOCKPILES ARE LOW. THE CHINESE, YOU CAN BET THE
[00:08:11] CHINESE ARE WATCHING THIS CLOSELY. >> CAN THEY BE REPLENISHED
[00:08:15] QUICKLY, OR IS THIS A PROBLEM?
[00:08:20] >> IT'S A PROBLEM BECAUSE THE THE TIMELINE FOR, UM, FOR
[00:08:23] PRODUCING MOST OF THESE MUNITIONS, MUNITIONS ARE BETWEEN
[00:08:26] 2 AND 3 YEARS. SO, UH, THAT
[00:08:30] CREATES. SO IF YOU, IF YOU START PRODUCTION, IF YOU INCREASE
[00:08:33] PRODUCTION TODAY, YOU'RE TALKING
[00:08:36] ABOUT A 2 TO 3 YEAR TIMELINE. THE INDUSTRY IS PUSHING THEM OUT
[00:08:39] NOW. AND WE'RE SEEING THEM COME
[00:08:41] OUT ON A, ON A MONTHLY BASIS.
[00:08:44] BUT YOU CAN'T FILL THESE, THESE GAPS QUICKLY.
[00:08:48] >> IF YOU'D LIKE TO TALK TO OUR GUESTS, SETH JONES OF CSIS, YOU CAN START CALLING IN. NOW. IF
[00:08:51] YOU'VE GOT A QUESTION ABOUT, UH, THE GLOBAL CONFLICTS THAT
[00:08:54] WE'RE DEALING WITH, IRAN, UKRAINE, IF YOU'VE GOT A QUESTION ON CHINA, YOU CAN
[00:08:58] CERTAINLY CALL ABOUT THAT AS
[00:08:59] WELL. REPUBLICANS ARE ON 202748
[00:09:02] 8001. DEMOCRATS 202748 8000. AND
[00:09:08] INDEPENDENCE. 202748 8002. UH ON
[00:09:12] THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR, THE DATA IS SHOWING THAT RUSSIA HAS
[00:09:16] SUFFERED ABOUT 1.4 MILLION IN
[00:09:19] CASUALTIES. HOW LONG CAN RUSSIA
[00:09:21] HOLD OUT ON THIS WAR THERE? UM,
[00:09:25] NOT JUST THE CASUALTY RATE. THEIR ECONOMY. WHAT'S IT GOING
[00:09:29] TO TAKE TO BRING PUTIN TO THE
[00:09:31] TABLE? REALISTICALLY?
[00:09:34] >> WELL, THE I MEAN, YOU MENTIONED THE 1.4 MILLION
[00:09:37] CASUALTY CASUALTIES. THAT'S TOTAL KILLED, WOUNDED, AND THEN MISSING. THOSE ARE OUR NUMBERS
[00:09:41] FOR JULY. SO THOSE NUMBERS HAVE
[00:09:43] NOW INCREASED. UM, BATTLEFIELD
[00:09:47] KILLED IS APPROACHING 500,000. JUST TO BE CLEAR ON THE
[00:09:51] COMPARISON, THAT'S MORE THAN FOUR TIMES THE NUMBER OF ALL
[00:09:54] U.S. KILLED IN ALL WARS COMBINED
[00:09:58] SINCE WORLD WAR TWO. SO YOU TAKE
[00:09:58] VIETNAM, UH, PLUS KOREA, PLUS
[00:10:02] AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, EVERYTHING ELSE BETWEEN WORLD WAR TWO
[00:10:05] TODAY, MULTIPLY IT BY FOUR. YOU
[00:10:08] STILL HAVEN'T GOTTEN TO THE TOTAL NUMBER OF RUSSIANS KILLED IN JUST FOUR AND A HALF YEARS
[00:10:12] SINCE THE WAR BEGAN. FULL SCALE
[00:10:13] WAR BEGAN IN FEBRUARY OF 2022.
[00:10:17] SO THE RUSSIANS ARE SUFFERING TREMENDOUSLY. THEY AREN'T TAKING
[00:10:20] TERRITORY. IN FACT, SEVERAL MONTHS THIS YEAR, THEY'VE LOST
[00:10:23] TERRITORY. I THINK, TO GET TO
[00:10:25] YOUR QUESTION, A LITTLE BIT LIKE OUR DISCUSSION OF IRAN, UM,
[00:10:29] WHERE THE SUPREME, BOTH THE PAST
[00:10:32] AND THE CURRENT SUPREME LEADER AND THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARD DOES NOT SEEM TO CARE MUCH
[00:10:37] ABOUT THE SUFFERING OF ITS POPULATION. UH, VLADIMIR PUTIN
[00:10:40] IS IN A SIMILAR POSITION. HIS COUNTRY'S ECONOMY, UM, OUTSIDE
[00:10:44] OF THE OIL AND GAS SECTOR, IS IN
[00:10:47] REALLY DIFFICULT SHAPE. RUSSIA RANKS AMONG LEADING COUNTRIES,
[00:10:50] ALMOST DEAD, LAST IN ARTIFICIAL
[00:10:51] INTELLIGENCE, PRODUCTION AND
[00:10:54] MANUFACTURING. UM, AND, AND SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE CASUALTIES,
[00:10:58] THEY'RE COMING FROM, UH, PLACES
[00:11:01] LIKE SIBERIA, THEY'RE LIKE THE
[00:11:03] NORTH CAUCASUS, NOT FROM ELITE
[00:11:06] SONS OR DAUGHTERS IN SAINT PETERSBURG AND MOSCOW. SO I
[00:11:08] THINK AT THE END OF THE DAY, VLADIMIR PUTIN VIEWS HIS
[00:11:12] POPULATION, ESPECIALLY THESE TYPES OF INDIVIDUALS, AS
[00:11:15] EXPENDABLE. AND, AND I THINK HAS SHOWN AN INCLINATION TO CONTINUE
[00:11:19] TO FIGHT THIS WAR. SO I THINK HE
[00:11:22] CAN GO FOR A CHUNK OF TIME
[00:11:25] STILL, UH, AND I MEAN, IT'S DEEPLY UNFORTUNATE BECAUSE WHAT
[00:11:28] HE'S DOING TO HIS OWN COUNTRY.
[00:11:30] >> CHINA, IS THE ONLY COUNTRY
[00:11:34] THAT CAN REALLY PRESSURE RUSSIA INTO ENDING THIS WAR. FIRST. DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT STATEMENT?
[00:11:37] AND SECOND, IF YOU DO, DO YOU
[00:11:41] SEE ANY SCENARIO WHERE THAT WOULD HAPPEN?
[00:11:43] >> YEAH. WELL, I MEAN, ON THE
[00:11:46] ONE HAND, VLADIMIR PUTIN DOES
[00:11:48] HAVE PROBABLY SOME PRESSURE FROM WITHIN HIS OWN DOMESTIC
[00:11:52] POLITICAL SITUATION, PARTICULARLY FROM HIS POLITICAL RIGHT. BUT IN TERMS OF OF
[00:11:56] OUTSIDE COUNTRIES, THE CHINESE
[00:11:58] HAVE ESSENTIALLY BANKROLLED THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND THE
[00:12:02] INDUSTRIAL BASE. THE CHINESE ARE
[00:12:04] PROVIDING RUSSIA WITH A HUGE NUMBER OF COMPONENTS FOR MANY OF
[00:12:08] ITS WEAPONS SYSTEMS, FROM
[00:12:10] ELECTRONICS TO RADAR SYSTEMS, TO COMPONENTS THAT GO INTO RUSSIAN
[00:12:14] AIRCRAFT AND MISSILES, AND EVEN
[00:12:16] DRONES. UH, SO THE, THE CHINESE
[00:12:20] DO HAVE SIGNIFICANT LEVERAGE IN THIS WAR. I THINK WHAT THE
[00:12:24] CHINESE ALSO WANT TO MAKE SURE
[00:12:25] THEY PREVENT IS RUSSIA FROM
[00:12:29] LOSING ITS, THEIR CLOSEST GLOBAL
[00:12:30] ALLY. SO I THINK THERE'S SOME
[00:12:34] THERE'S A CAREFUL BALANCE FROM BEIJING. THEY DON'T WANT THE
[00:12:36] RUSSIANS TO LOSE. BUT THEY I
[00:12:39] THINK IN IN IN GENERAL WOULD
[00:12:41] LIKE TO SEE THIS WAR START TO, UM, WIND DOWN.
[00:12:45] >> UH, YOU'VE WRITTEN THAT
[00:12:48] CHINA'S SHIPBUILDING CAPACITY IS OVER 200 TIMES THAT OF THE
[00:12:52] U.S.. IS IT POSSIBLE FOR THE UNITED STATES TO CLOSE THAT GAP?
[00:12:55] AND IS IT IMPORTANT FOR THE U.S. TO CLOSE THE GAP?
[00:12:58] >> YEAH. SO THOSE NUMBERS
[00:12:59] INCLUDE BOTH COMMERCIAL AND MILITARY. THE UNITED STATES, AT
[00:13:03] ONE POINT, USED TO BE A BIG COMMERCIAL PRODUCER OF SHIPS.
[00:13:06] IT'S NOT REALLY ANYMORE. MOST OF THE SHIPS OR MANY OF THE
[00:13:09] SHIPS THAT THE U.S. BUILDS, ARE ONES OUT OF PLACES LIKE GROTON,
[00:13:12] CONNECTICUT. THOSE ARE SUBMARINES OR OUT OF BATH, MAINE, WHERE IT BUILDS ITS
[00:13:16] DESTROYERS. ARLEIGH BURKE CLASS
[00:13:18] DESTROYERS. UH, SO, YOU KNOW, THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF APPLES
[00:13:22] AND ORANGES WHEN YOU COMPARE A BIG CHINESE COMMERCIAL PLUS
[00:13:25] MILITARY TARGET, UM, INDUSTRIAL
[00:13:27] BASE AND THE U.S., I STILL THINK, UH, A WAR OR DETERRENCE
[00:13:31] IN THE PACIFIC DOES REQUIRE
[00:13:34] SHIPS, BOTH SURFACE. AND THEN
[00:13:37] SUBSEA. SO UNDERSEA, WHETHER SUBMARINES OR WHAT WE CALL
[00:13:40] UNMANNED OR UNCREWED UNDERWATER VEHICLES, I THINK THERE IS A
[00:13:43] NEED FOR THE U.S. TO RAMP UP ITS
[00:13:47] SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRIAL BASE.
[00:13:49] UH, BOTH FOR SURFACE SHIPS AND
[00:13:53] UNDERSEA. BUT IT IS IT'S A SLOG RIGHT NOW. WORKFORCE SUPPLY
[00:13:56] CHAIN. THERE ARE A LOT OF CHALLENGES THAT NEED TO BE FIXED
[00:13:59] TO GET TO THAT STAGE.
[00:14:02] >> IF CHINA WERE TO TAKE MILITARY ACTION AGAINST TAIWAN,
[00:14:06] WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES? >> WELL, THE THE ISSUE WOULD
[00:14:10] PROBABLY BE WHAT TYPES OF
[00:14:12] ACTION? UM, THE CHINESE COULD CONDUCT. FOR EXAMPLE, AN
[00:14:15] AMPHIBIOUS INVASION OF AN ISLAND LIKE TAIWAN OR, OR ANOTHER
[00:14:19] PHILIPPINES, JAPAN. THEY COULD CONDUCT A BLOCKADE OR
[00:14:22] QUARANTINE, WHICH IS AN ACT OF WAR, PARTICULARLY A BLOCKADE. OR
[00:14:25] THEY COULD CONDUCT SORT OF WHAT WE CALL GRAY ZONE OR IRREGULAR
[00:14:28] OPERATIONS. SO DEPENDING ON WHAT TYPE OF OPERATION THE CHINESE,
[00:14:32] UM, WHAT'S.
[00:14:34] >> MOST LIKELY. >> I ACTUALLY THINK SOMETHING
[00:14:37] CLOSER TO A BLOCKADE. OKAY. SO IF THERE'S MORE LIKELY. >> IF THERE'S A BLOCKADE, WHAT
[00:14:40] DOES THE US DO? >> WELL, UH, THAT'S A, THAT'S A
[00:14:43] REALLY INTERESTING QUESTION. UH, THE, YOU KNOW, WHAT THE US DID
[00:14:47] DURING THE COLD WAR? AND IT'S A DIFFERENT SITUATION WHEN THE,
[00:14:51] UH, WHEN THE SOVIETS PREVENTED THE US FROM GETTING TO BERLIN
[00:14:55] WAS THEY BROKE THAT WHAT WAS
[00:14:58] ESSENTIALLY A BLOCKADE BY FLYING IN AIRCRAFT. SO THE US COULD USE
[00:15:02] COMMERCIAL SHIPS TO RUN THE
[00:15:05] BLOCKADE OR QUARANTINE THAT
[00:15:07] CHINA PROVIDED TO GET FOOD,
[00:15:09] FUEL, AND OTHER TYPES OF. AND EVEN AMMUNITION, ALTHOUGH THAT
[00:15:13] THAT WOULD THAT WOULD OBVIOUSLY,
[00:15:15] UH, MAKE THE CHINESE UNHAPPY TO
[00:15:19] TAIWAN. THE QUESTION IS, WOULD THE CHINESE SINK THOSE VESSELS?
[00:15:22] AND THEN DO WE GET AN ESCALATING
[00:15:23] SCENARIO WHERE WE GO UP TO WAR? I'VE PLAYED IN A FEW WAR GAMES,
[00:15:27] IN A BLOCKADE, IN QUARANTINE, AND SOMETIMES YOU ESCALATE UP TO
[00:15:31] CONVENTIONAL WAR. SO THERE ARE
[00:15:34] HUGE RISKS IN THAT. AND A LOT OF IT WOULD DEPEND ON HOW THOSE COUNTRIES OPERATE.
[00:15:38] >> LET'S TALK TO CALLERS. WE'LL START WITH DEBBIE IN MAINE ON
[00:15:41] THE REPUBLICAN LINE. HI, DEBBIE. >> HELLO. GOOD MORNING. GOOD
[00:15:44] MORNING. I LOVE YOUR GUEST. I
[00:15:48] LOVE YOU,. FIRST OF ALL, I JUST
[00:15:50] PUT A STRIP OUT, I UM, SUSAN
[00:15:55] COLLINS WAS THERE WHEN THEY
[00:15:57] LAUNCHED IT. UM, MY OPINION ON
[00:16:00] THE, UM, ON WAR. I SAY WE GO IN
[00:16:03] AND TAKE THEM OUT, THE IRANIAN. WELL, HOW DO YOU GO WITH THE
[00:16:07] IRGC? WHATEVER THE IRANIAN HELP.
[00:16:11] AND I THINK WE OUGHT TO PAY THE
[00:16:13] KURDS, GET THEM OUT OF IRAQ AND GET THEM ON KHARG ISLAND AND
[00:16:17] SHUT THAT
[00:16:21] >> SAY GO IN, DO YOU ARE YOU IN FAVOR OF GROUND TROOPS IN IRAN?
[00:16:25] >> NO. ABSOLUTELY NOT. OKAY. ABSOLUTELY NOT. >> YOU WANT TO PAY OTHER PEOPLE TO DO IT.
[00:16:29] >> THEY'VE GOT BRIDGES, THEY GOT ELECTRICAL. YOU KNOW, ALL
[00:16:33] THAT PRODUCTION, YOU KNOW, WE
[00:16:34] GOT TO STOP PUTIN FROM SENDING
[00:16:38] SHIPS TO IRAN. >> SO. SETH JONES YEAH.
[00:16:41] >> DEBBIE. SO, FIRST OF ALL, ON BATH, I HAVE BEEN THERE MANY
[00:16:44] TIMES. BATH IRON WORKS BUILDS,
[00:16:47] UH, THE U.S., UH, WORLD CLASS ARLEIGH BURKE CLASS DESTROYERS.
[00:16:50] UH, BUT, YOU KNOW, THAT'S ONE GOOD EXAMPLE. WE TALKED SHIPBUILDING, ONE GOOD EXAMPLE,
[00:16:54] THE COST OF LIVING FOR THOSE WELDERS, ELECTRICIANS, PIPE
[00:16:58] FITTERS AT A PLACE LIKE BATH
[00:16:59] IRON WORKS IS GROWN INCREASINGLY EXPENSIVE. SO I THINK US HAS GOT
[00:17:03] TO LOOK AT OPTIONS FOR INCREASING EDUCATION AT SOME OF
[00:17:07] THE, UH, YOU KNOW, LIKE VOCATIONAL SCHOOLS, BUT ALSO
[00:17:11] RAISING THE PAY SO THAT PEOPLE AT AREAS LIKE BATH CAN AFFORD TO
[00:17:13] LIVE IN AND AROUND AREAS LIKE COASTAL MAINE. UM, BUT I THINK
[00:17:17] IT'S, YOU KNOW, THE STUFF
[00:17:19] THAT'S DONE AT BATH IS, IS
[00:17:22] IMPORTANT ON IRAN. UM, I MEAN, I ACTUALLY THINK AT SOME POINT
[00:17:25] THAT'S PROBABLY WHERE WE'LL GET TO, UH, THAT THE US
[00:17:28] PRESIDENT IS GOING TO HAVE, UH,
[00:17:32] HAVE TO TAKE A RISK IN, UM,
[00:17:34] CONDUCTING ESCALATED MILITARY
[00:17:38] CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE IRANIANS. I THINK IT PROBABLY IS TOO RISKY
[00:17:41] TO PUT GROUND FORCES. I'M NOT SURE IT WILL ACTUALLY BE
[00:17:44] HELPFUL. SO I THINK WHAT IT WILL
[00:17:46] LIKELY INVOLVE IS SOME TYPE OF
[00:17:50] COMBINATION OF AIR AND NAVAL
[00:17:53] VESSELS TO, UM, TO OPEN UP THE
[00:17:55] STRAIT, TO INCREASE THE FLOW OF
[00:17:59] COMMERCE THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THERE AREN'T WITHOUT
[00:18:01] RISKS. YOU COULD, YOU COULD GET
[00:18:05] U.S. AIRCRAFT OR ALLIED AIRCRAFT SHUT DOWN, UH, KNOCKED OUT OF
[00:18:08] THE SKIES. AND U.S. HAS ALREADY
[00:18:11] LOST 42/42 AIRCRAFT SINCE THE WAR BEGAN. AND YOU COULD GET NAVAL SHIPS, INCLUDING ONES
[00:18:15] BUILT OUT OF BATH, MAINE, UH,
[00:18:17] THAT GET HIT, INCLUDING THOSE ARLEIGH BURKE CLASS DESTROYERS. SO THERE ARE RISKS INVOLVED. I
[00:18:22] THINK WHAT'S ACTUALLY GOING TO BE VERY IMPORTANT AT THE END OF
[00:18:24] THE DAY, UH, IS TO BUILD A
[00:18:27] COALITION TO DO IT. BECAUSE I THINK THE LONGER THIS WAR
[00:18:30] PERSISTS, I THINK THERE WILL BE SUPPORT FROM A RANGE OF GULF
[00:18:34] COUNTRIES AND OTHER U.S. ALLIES TO JOIN A MISSION LIKE THIS. WE
[00:18:38] SAW THIS IN THE 1990 91 GULF WAR
[00:18:42] AGAINST IRAQ. AND SO I THINK THAT'S SORT OF THE DIRECTION WE'RE LIKELY TO GO DOWN.
[00:18:44] >> CAN THE KURDS DO THIS?
[00:18:46] >> WELL, THAT GETS INTO ANOTHER ISSUE, WHICH IS THE OVERTHROW OF
[00:18:50] THE, UH, OF THE REGIME. THAT'S
[00:18:53] WHERE THE THE KURDS CAN'T OPEN UP THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. I DON'T THINK THEY CAN'T PLAY A
[00:18:57] MEANINGFUL ROLE THERE. BUT I
[00:18:58] THINK THE QUESTION, WHEN IT
[00:19:02] COMES TO THE KURDS AND OTHER OPPOSITION GROUPS IN IRAN IS,
[00:19:04] CAN, UH, CAN THE U.S. AND OTHER
[00:19:08] ORGANIZATIONS, THIS WOULD BE CIA, SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES,
[00:19:12] AID OPPOSITION GROUPS IN IRAN?
[00:19:14] YES. WILL THAT LEAD TO AN
[00:19:17] OVERTHROW OF THE GOVERNMENT? PROBABLY UNLIKELY. UH, I THINK
[00:19:20] THE SOCIAL ENGINEERING FROM THE OUTSIDE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT,
[00:19:24] PROBLEMATIC, EVEN WITH BOOTS ON THE GROUND. SO I WOULDN'T I
[00:19:27] WOULDN'T BANK ON A HIGH PROBABILITY THERE.
[00:19:28] >> WE GOT THIS FROM A GUY IN
[00:19:32] OKLAHOMA. HE SAYS IRAN HAS NO WATER, NO FOOD. INFLATION IS
[00:19:36] APPROACHING 400%, NO MONEY TO
[00:19:38] PAY THE IRGC AND POLICE, NO
[00:19:41] COMMERCE. THEIR MILITARY IS COMPLETELY ELIMINATED. ET
[00:19:43] CETERA. ET CETERA. WHAT IS KEEPING IRAN FROM COMPLETE
[00:19:47] COLLAPSE? >> UH, THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
[00:19:49] THINGS. ONE IS THE IRANIAN
[00:19:52] POPULATION DOES HAVE A, UH,
[00:19:57] ABILITY TO, UM, UH, TO TAKE SORT
[00:19:59] OF EXTRAORDINARY RISKS. AND
[00:20:05] IT'S BEEN FOR DECADES SUFFERING,
[00:20:07] NOT QUITE AT THESE LEVELS, BUT IT'S BEEN OSTRACIZED. UH, I
[00:20:10] THINK ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE
[00:20:12] ARE SEEING, TO BE CLEAR, IS THAT
[00:20:14] BOTH THE RUSSIANS AND THE CHINESE HAVE GIVEN A LIFELINE TO
[00:20:18] THE IRANIAN ECONOMY. THEY'RE CONTINUING TO PROVIDE GOODS AND
[00:20:22] SERVICES. THE CHINESE ARE BUYING
[00:20:25] IRANIAN OIL. SO, UH, YOU KNOW, THERE ARE THEY DO HAVE ALLIES.
[00:20:29] THEY'RE PROVIDING HELP TO THE INDUSTRIAL BASE. SO IT'S A GOOD
[00:20:33] QUESTION. BUT I THINK WHAT WE'VE SEEN IS THE IRANIAN POPULATION
[00:20:36] HAS BEEN ABLE TO STOMACH, UH,
[00:20:42] EXTENSIVE SUFFERING. AND THE CHALLENGE RIGHT NOW IS THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A RALLY AROUND THE
[00:20:44] FLAG EFFECT IN IRAN, WHERE THE
[00:20:47] POPULATION, BECAUSE IT'S BEING TARGETED SO HEAVILY OVER THE
[00:20:51] COURSE OF 20 2026 BY THE
[00:20:54] ISRAELIS AND THE U.S., THE
[00:20:59] POPULATION OF IRAN HAS IN SOME WAYS EMBRACED THE REGIME FROM
[00:21:03] THE EXTERNAL THREAT. SO I THINK THOSE ARE A FEW OF THE FACTORS
[00:21:04] THAT ARE UH, THAT ARE THAT ARE
[00:21:08] PREVENTING THE REGIME FROM COLLAPSING RIGHT NOW. >> SHERRILL, OWINGS MILLS,
[00:21:12] MARYLAND. UH, SORRY, GO AHEAD.
[00:21:15] >> THAT'S RIGHT. DEMOCRAT. OKAY. HEY, LOOK, UM, I REMEMBER
[00:21:19] BACK WHEN, UH, 250 OF OUR MARINES WERE KILLED OVER THERE
[00:21:23] IN BEIRUT, LEBANON, AND RONALD REAGAN DIDN'T DO ANYTHING ABOUT
[00:21:26] THAT. BUT THIS IS WHAT I WANT TO
[00:21:28] ASK. I WANT TO ASK ABOUT THE
[00:21:31] JCPOA AND HOW IMPORTANT THAT
[00:21:32] DOCUMENT IS, BECAUSE I HEARD,
[00:21:37] ALEX, I THINK IT WAS.
[00:21:47] IN THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION THAT WANTED TO STAY IN THE JCPOA.
[00:21:51] SO CAN YOU TELL ME, HE TOLD
[00:21:55] DONALD TRUMP TO STAY IN THE IRAN DEAL. I WANT TO KNOW IF THAT WAS TRUE.
[00:21:59] AND IF THERE WERE ANY OTHER
[00:22:02] MEMBERS OF DONALD TRUMP'S CABINET BUT WANTED TO SAY --
[00:22:06] STAY IN THE JCPOA?
[00:22:07] GUEST: THERE WAS A PRETTY ROBUST
[00:22:12] DEBATE UP TO THE DECISION IN THE FIRST TRUMPET ADMINISTRATION TO
[00:22:15] WALK AWAY FROM THE NUCLEAR DEAL WITH IRAN.
[00:22:21] UNFORTUNATELY THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL MINUTES RIGHT
[00:22:25] NOW OF MEETINGS PROBABLY WON'T BE DECLASSIFIED FOR ANOTHER
[00:22:28] DECADE AND A HALF OR SO SO WE DON'T KNOW ALL THE POSITIONS IN
[00:22:33] THE SITUATION ROOM BECAUSE THEY
[00:22:34] ARE STILL CLASSIFIED BUT A LOOK SICK REX TILLERSON FOR EXAMPLE
[00:22:38] HAD SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT PULLING
[00:22:40] AWAY FROM THE JCPOA, OF THE SECRETARY OF STATE AT THE TIME.
[00:22:45] THE REALITY AT THIS POINT IS
[00:22:49] ONCE THE FIRST TRUMPET ADMINISTRATION WALKED AWAY FROM
[00:22:51] THAT JCPOA IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL IT
[00:22:56] BECAME DIFFICULT AFTER THAT AND
[00:22:56] STILL IS TODAY, THE BIDEN
[00:23:00] ADMINISTRATION COULDN'T GET IT DONE, THE TRUMPET ADMINISTRATION IS HAVING DIFFICULT TIMES GETTING IT DONE.
[00:23:05] PART OF THE REASON IS THAT THE
[00:23:07] IRANIAN POSITION IS THAT THE
[00:23:12] U.S. CHANGES PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATION'S EVERY FOUR OR
[00:23:15] EIGHT YEARS SO ANY DEAL AS THEY
[00:23:16] HAVE SEEN ANY DEAL A NEW ADMINISTRATION COULD WALK AWAY
[00:23:20] FROM. SO WHY SHOULD WE TRUST A DEAL
[00:23:24] THAT THE U.S. HAS MADE IF ANOTHER ADMINISTRATION CAN TURN
[00:23:27] AND WALK AWAY. THAT IS THE PROBLEM WE HAVE
[00:23:31] RIGHT NOW WITH AGREEING TO A
[00:23:35] DEAL.
[00:23:35] THAT IS PARTLY WHY THE U.S.
[00:23:39] POSITION WAS LAST YEAR IN 2025 DURING THE NIGHT HAMMER WITHOUT
[00:23:43] A DEAL STRIKING TARGETS AS PART
[00:23:46] OF OPERATION MIDNIGHT HAMMER AND
[00:23:48] TO SET BACK OUR ANALYSIS, THE IRANIAN PROGRAMS PROBABLY SET BACK.
[00:23:55] THAT'S NOT A GREAT LONG-TERM SOLUTION EITHER.
[00:23:58] I THINK THE CHALLENGE WE'VE GOT
[00:24:00] IS IT'S BEEN HARD FOR ANY REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT ADMINISTRATION TO GET A DEAL
[00:24:04] WITH IRAN IN THAT TIMELINE.
[00:24:06] HOST: IF IT'S GOING TO BE SO DIFFICULT TO GET A DEAL THAT
[00:24:09] WILL STICK, IS THE ONLY SOLUTION
[00:24:13] HERE MILITARY ACTION LIKE MIDNIGHT HAMMER SO EVERY SO
[00:24:17] OFTEN WE GO IN AND DESTROY IT AND SEND IT BACK A YEAR OR TWO
[00:24:21] AND THEN THEY START REBUILDING, WE GO IN MILITARILY AND DESTROY IT?
[00:24:24] GUEST: THAT IS AN OPTION.
[00:24:27] IF THERE IS NO DEAL AND NO REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT
[00:24:33] ADMINISTRATION CAN GET THROUGH
[00:24:34] WITH INSPECTORS ON THE GROUND,
[00:24:37] TO VERIFY THAT THE IRANIANS ARE
[00:24:41] ABIDING BY THIS, IF THAT CANNOT
[00:24:44] HAPPEN AND THERE IS INTELLIGENCE FROM THE U.S. AND OTHERS THAT
[00:24:48] THE IRANIANS ARE CONTINUING A
[00:24:50] NUCLEAR PROGRAM, OR AT OTHER
[00:24:55] SITES. BUT I THINK YOU ARE LOOKING AT
[00:24:59] LIKELY THE STRATEGY FOR THE
[00:25:03] IRANIANS. EVERY SO OFTEN YOU SEE STRIKES.
[00:25:06] THE CHALLENGE WITHOUT WITH THE IRANIANS ARE GETTING SMARTER
[00:25:10] ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE PUTTING THEIR MATERIAL.
[00:25:13] SOME OF THE LOCATIONS IN PICKAX MOUNTAIN FOR EXAMPLE.
[00:25:16] YOU LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THEN LOOK AT THE TUNNEL
[00:25:20] COMPLEXES YOU CANNOT SEE THEM ALL ON THE GROUND.
[00:25:24] SOME OF THOSE LARGE BOMBS
[00:25:27] DROPPED FROM A U.S. BOMBER MAY
[00:25:30] NOT BE ABLE TO PENETRATE THAT SO
[00:25:34] THE IRANIANS MAY TAKE SOME ACTION UNDERGROUND THAT MAKE IT
[00:25:37] EVEN DIFFICULT FOR ANOTHER OPERATION.
[00:25:41] HOST: FOR THE TWO YEARS THE
[00:25:45] JCPOA WAS IN EFFECT, THE PEOPLE IN FAVOR SAY IT WAS WORKING.
[00:25:48] THOSE WHO ARE AGAINST IT SAY IT WAS NOT WORKING. WHICH IS IT?
[00:25:52] DO YOU KNOW IF IT WAS WORKING FOR THOSE TWO YEARS AT THE U.S.
[00:25:55] AND IRAN WERE UNDER THAT AGREEMENT?
[00:25:57] GUEST: IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON
[00:26:01] WHAT THE INSPECTORS WERE ABLE TO ASSESS THAT IT DID HAVE A
[00:26:03] POSITIVE IMPACT IN SLOWING THE
[00:26:08] IRANIAN PROGRAM DOWN. BIG PICTURE THOUGH IT IS WORTH POINTING OUT THE IRANIANS HAVE
[00:26:13] HAD EITHER PLANS OR IN ACTUALITY
[00:26:19] OVER NUCLEAR PROGRAM SINCE THE REVOLUTIONARY REGIME BEGAN.
[00:26:23] REALLY SINCE THE EARLY 1980'S SO
[00:26:26] -- NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE THE
[00:26:29] STRONGEST DETERRENT I THINK THE
[00:26:34] IRANIANS -- UKRAINIANS WISH THEY
[00:26:35] HADN'T GIVEN THEM UP AFTER THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION.
[00:26:39] HOST: IN THE NORTH KOREANS.
[00:26:41] GUEST: REGARDLESS OF ANY OF THIS
[00:26:44] THERE WILL BE DESIRE FOR NUCLEAR PROGRAM.
[00:26:47] HOST: ON THE INDEPENDENT LINE
[00:26:51] YOU ARE ON WITH SETH JONES.
[00:26:52] GUEST: -- CALLER: THANK YOU FOR
[00:26:59] TAKING MY CALL. ANY RELEASE ON THE INVESTIGATION
[00:27:04] OF THE LIVES LOST AND AS WE LEARN MORE ABOUT THAT TRAGEDY,
[00:27:08] HOW DO WE ENSURE THAT WE HOLD
[00:27:10] THOSE RESPONSIBLE ACCOUNTABLE WITHOUT ALLOWING THAT ONE SINGLE
[00:27:13] DEVASTATING EVENT TO DICTATE OUR
[00:27:15] BROADER STRATEGY ESPECIALLY FOR THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.
[00:27:20] HOST: THE GIRLS SCHOOL IN IRAN.
[00:27:24] GUEST: THAT IS A GOOD QUESTION.
[00:27:28] I HAVE NOT SEEN AN UPDATE RECENTLY ON WHERE THAT INVESTIGATION STANDS.
[00:27:32] I DO THINK IT IS IMPORTANT.
[00:27:33] HAVING SERVED IN AFGHANISTAN, I
[00:27:39] WAS A CIVILIAN IN THE U.S. MILITARY IN U.S. SPECIAL
[00:27:42] OPERATIONS, THERE ARE, THERE
[00:27:44] HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF CASES IN
[00:27:48] IRAQ AND OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE
[00:27:50] U.S. BOMBS HIT CIVILIAN TARGETS,
[00:27:53] A WEDDING OR OTHER LOCATIONS.
[00:27:59] TO CONDUCT STRIKES AGAINST CIVILIAN POPULATIONS AS A MATTER OF POLICY.
[00:28:05] SO I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO
[00:28:07] INVESTIGATE AND HOLD ACCOUNTABLE
[00:28:11] THOSE INVOLVED.
[00:28:13] IT WAS A PROBLEM OF INTELLIGENCE, WAS IT A PROBLEM
[00:28:16] OF EXECUTION, SO I DO THINK IT
[00:28:21] IS IMPORTANT THAT WE CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THAT. I HAVE NOT SEEN AN UPDATE
[00:28:25] RECENTLY ON WHERE THAT IS.
[00:28:26] HOST: TERRY NEXT FROM TENNESSEE
[00:28:30] ON THE LINE FOR REPUBLICANS.
[00:28:34] ARE YOU THERE? CALLER: YEAH I'M HERE.
[00:28:37] HOST: GO AHEAD.
[00:28:41] CALLER: WHAT ARE WE TALKING
[00:28:44] ABOUT TODAY.
[00:28:46] HOST: THE IRAN WAR, THE RUSH UKRAINE WAR.
[00:28:51] CALLER: THE WAY I SEE IT WE
[00:28:54] ALREADY STARTED OVER THERE.
[00:28:58] WE NEED TO TELL THE INNOCENT PEOPLE TO GET OUT OF THE WAY, GO
[00:29:01] OVER THERE AND WIPE THEM OUT.
[00:29:05] THAT'S THE WAY I SEE IT.
[00:29:08] HOST: THE CONCEPT OF PRESIDENT
[00:29:12] TRUMP SHOULD JUST FINISH THE JOB. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN
[00:29:16] STRATEGICALLY, WHAT IS THAT MEAN ON THE GROUND?
[00:29:18] CALLER: THE ANSWER TO THAT --
[00:29:21] GUEST: THE ANSWER THAT HINGES ON
[00:29:25] WHAT PEOPLE MEAN BY FINISH THE JOB.
[00:29:28] THERE REALLY I THINK AT THIS
[00:29:30] POINT PROBABLY TO BIG OBJECTIVES
[00:29:32] THAT THE U.S. FOR U.S. LEADERS.
[00:29:37] ONE IS OPENING UP THE STRAIT OF
[00:29:38] HORMUZ SO THAT THE U.S., SO THAT
[00:29:42] THERE CAN BE A FREE FLOW OF
[00:29:43] TRADE AND THAT FOR AMERICANS,
[00:29:47] GAS PRICES START TO COME DOWN.
[00:29:50] THEY ARE HIGH ACROSS THE U.S. RIGHT NOW. SO OPENING UP THE STREET IS ONE OBJECTIVE.
[00:29:56] AND TO IS THERE IS A CONTINUING
[00:30:01] EFFORT TO MAKE SURE THAT IRAN DOES NOT GET A NUCLEAR WEAPON.
[00:30:06] AND SO THERE ARE A RANGE OF DIFFERENT WAYS YOU CAN GET THERE.
[00:30:09] I THINK THE SECOND OPTION ON
[00:30:11] IRAN HAVING A NUCLEAR WEAPON IS
[00:30:14] A LITTLE BIT SOLVED IN THE SHORT TERM. IRAN'S CAPABILITIES HAVE BEEN
[00:30:19] DEGRADED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS. OUR ASSESSMENT ANYWAY.
[00:30:24] AND THAT BRINGS US BACK TO OPENING UP THE STRAIGHT.
[00:30:29] AND THERE I THINK YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT THERE IS NO DEAL, WE DO NOT HAVE ONE NOW.
[00:30:34] WE CAN GET A DEAL ON OPENING UP
[00:30:36] THE STRAIGHT, THE OMANI'S AND
[00:30:40] THE IRANIANS ARE DISCUSSING OPTIONS FOR BRINGING IN TANKERS
[00:30:43] ON THE IRANIAN SIDE, POTENTIALLY
[00:30:47] SHARING SOME TAXATION OF THOSE
[00:30:50] COMMERCIAL VESSELS.
[00:30:52] BUT SHARING SOME TAXES AND IF
[00:30:57] THAT DOESN'T STICK THAT I THINK YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT MILITARY
[00:31:01] OPTIONS.
[00:31:02] HOST: THE STATED GOALS IRAN WILL
[00:31:06] NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. NEVER IS A LONG TIME SO HOW DO
[00:31:10] YOU MEASURE THE SUCCESS OF THAT,
[00:31:13] YOU CAN CERTAINLY DELAY IT AS YOU SAID.
[00:31:15] THEY WILL ALWAYS MOST LIKELY BE LOOKING FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPON REGARDLESS.
[00:31:20] GUEST: I THINK ONE HAS TO BE
[00:31:23] CAREFUL ABOUT PROMISING NEVER.
[00:31:25] I THINK WHAT YOU REALLY WANT IS
[00:31:29] TO INCREMENTALLY WEAKEN THEIR
[00:31:34] PROGRAM AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT
[00:31:36] FOR THEM TO BUILD NUCLEAR WEAPONS. THE PROBLEM AT THE END OF THE
[00:31:41] DAY AND IRAN THAT HAS NUCLEAR
[00:31:45] WEAPONS CAPABILITIES IS THAT IT DOES RAISE ADDITIONAL PROLIFERATION.
[00:31:49] THE SAUDI'S ARE INTERESTED IN COMMERCIAL NUCLEAR PROGRAM.
[00:31:52] WE SEE THE JAPANESE AND KOREAN
[00:31:55] LEADERS TALKING ABOUT NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
[00:31:59] SO THE WORRY IS IF IRAN GETS
[00:32:00] NUCLEAR WEAPONS, THE TURKS HAVE
[00:32:03] TALKED ABOUT A POTENTIAL NUCLEAR
[00:32:06] PROGRAM, THAT IS THE CONCERN YOU
[00:32:09] GET TO A POINT WHERE IRAN
[00:32:11] ACTUALLY HAS NUCLEAR WEAPONS A
[00:32:16] GROWING PROLIFERATION. I THINK YOU HAVE TO TAKE THIS IN
[00:32:21] INCREMENTS. DELAYING IRAN'S CAPABILITIES OVER TWO OR THREE OR FOUR YEARS.
[00:32:25] IT'S UNCLEAR WHETHER THE IRANIAN
[00:32:29] REGIME SURVIVES FIVE YEARS, 10 YEARS. THERE MAY BE OTHER VARIABLES THAT COME INTO PLAY.
[00:32:32] HOST: FOR OUR CALL HER ANGELA.
[00:32:37] THE BBC HAS THIS ARTICLE FROM
[00:32:40] LAST MONTH IN JULY SAYING WHAT WAS THEIR CRIME.
[00:32:45] THE BBC VISIT IRAN SCHOOL WHERE STRIKES KILLED 120 CHILDREN.
[00:32:52] HERE IS MARGARET CALLING FROM CALIFORNIA, DEMOCRAT.
[00:32:54] CALLER: THANK YOU.
[00:32:58] MY COMMENT IS PART OF PRESIDENT
[00:33:02] TRUMP'S LEGACY WILL BE THAT HE ALLOWED RUSSIA TO CONQUER
[00:33:05] UKRAINE AND MAKE IT PART OF RUSSIA.
[00:33:08] THIS WAR COULD HAVE BEEN FINISHED LONG AGO IF PRESIDENT
[00:33:12] TRUMP HAD GIVEN UKRAINE THE HELP HE HAS GIVEN TO ISRAEL.
[00:33:16] WHAT DO YOU THINK?
[00:33:16] GUEST: I THINK SETTING ASIDE
[00:33:22] POLITICS, THE REALITY IS THE
[00:33:27] FULL-SCALE WAR STARTS IN FEBRUARY OF 2022 ALTHOUGH THE
[00:33:32] RUSSIANS SEIZED CRIMEA BACK IN
[00:33:36] 2013 LATER THAT YEAR SO THIS WAR HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR WELL OVER A DECADE.
[00:33:42] I THINK AT VARIOUS PARTS MY VIEW
[00:33:45] DURING THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, THERE WERE EFFORTS TO PROVIDE
[00:33:48] SOME WEAPONS SYSTEMS BUT THERE WERE LIMITATIONS TO HOW THE
[00:33:52] UKRAINIANS WERE ALLOWED TO USE THEM.
[00:33:58] WHAT WAS PROVIDED TO THE UKRAINIANS UKRAINE COULDN'T USE
[00:34:01] THEM TO STRIKE TARGETS IN RUSSIA
[00:34:03] AND THERE WERE A NUMBER OF WEAPON SYSTEMS THAT WERE PROVIDED.
[00:34:07] NOW DURING THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION THERE HAS BEEN
[00:34:10] SOME LIMITS ALSO TO WHAT THE
[00:34:13] UKRAINIANS BEEN WILLING TO PROVIDE.
[00:34:17] SO I TALKED TO PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY ABOUT HIS REQUEST FOR
[00:34:22] TOMAHAWK CRUISE MISSILES WHICH
[00:34:25] THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CONSIDERED AND DECIDED NOT TO PROVIDE.
[00:34:29] THERE HAVE BEEN SOME THOUGHT
[00:34:33] ABOUT GIVING ADDITIONAL PATRIOT
[00:34:35] SYSTEMS OR ALLOWING THE
[00:34:37] UKRAINIANS TO BUILD PATRIOTS AND
[00:34:39] IT LOOKS LIKE THAT, THE U.S. IS
[00:34:43] STILL UNCLEAR WHAT IT'S GOING TO
[00:34:46] DO ON THAT ON ALLOWING THE
[00:34:50] UKRAINIANS TO BUILD PATRIOT WEAPON SYSTEMS.
[00:34:53] I THINK THE REALITY THOUGH IS
[00:34:56] THAT THERE ARE TWO THINGS RIGHT
[00:35:00] NOW BUT I THINK WOULD BE HELPFUL TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
[00:35:04] THE END OF THE WAR.
[00:35:07] ONE IS PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
[00:35:09] SANCTIONS AGAINST THE RUSSIANS,
[00:35:11] SOMETHING THAT NOW THE DECEASED
[00:35:17] SENATOR LINDSEY GRAHAM SUPPORTED INCLUDING ON HIS MOST RECENT TRIP JUST BEFORE HE DIED SO
[00:35:22] SANCTIONING THE RUSSIANS AND THE
[00:35:24] SECOND IS I WOULD SAY ESCALATING
[00:35:27] THE TYPE OF WEAPON SYSTEMS THAT
[00:35:30] THE UKRAINIANS NEEDED TO DEFEND
[00:35:33] THEIR TERRITORY. FROM AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS TO
[00:35:37] COMPONENTS FOR LONG-RANGE STRIKES. THAT IS WHAT I THINK WOULD BE
[00:35:39] HELPFUL RIGHT NOW, PUTTING
[00:35:43] VLADIMIR PUTIN IN A POSITION WHERE HE RECOGNIZES HE CANNOT
[00:35:47] WIN THIS WAR AND THAT IS WHERE I THINK WE NEED TO GET.
[00:35:48] HOST: ONE MORE CALL FROM LARRY,
[00:35:53] REPUBLICAN IN PENNSYLVANIA. GOOD MORNING. CALLER: YES.
[00:35:56] I WAS JUST CALLING.
[00:36:00] I WAS JUST CALLING THAT BOAT
[00:36:08] PLACE WITH HER COMING THROUGH
[00:36:10] WHERE THE OIL IS AT I THINK THE
[00:36:13] UNITED STATES SHOULD JUST TAKE
[00:36:14] OVER THAT PLACE AND TAKE TAKE,
[00:36:18] CHARGE THEM FOR IT AND SPLIT THE
[00:36:19] MONEY WITH -- .
[00:36:22] HOST: YOU TALKING ABOUT KHARG ISLAND LARRY?
[00:36:27] GUEST: I THINK THEY SHOULD --
[00:36:28] CALLER: I THINK THEY SHOULD SHIP
[00:36:32] AND CHARGE THEM THROUGH THEIR
[00:36:34] AND TAKE CARE OF ALL THESE OLDER PEOPLE WITH SOCIAL SECURITY AND
[00:36:39] STUFF WE WOULDN'T HAVE NO PROBLEMS.
[00:36:42] GUEST: THANKS FOR YOUR COMMENT.
[00:36:46] I THINK THE CHALLENGE LOOKING AT
[00:36:48] THE -- AT THE MILITARY
[00:36:52] OPERATIONS WHETHER IT IS TO SEND
[00:36:57] TROOPS INTO KHARG ISLAND OR ALSO INTO SOME OF THE ISLANDS IN THE
[00:37:00] STRAIT OF HORMUZ.
[00:37:03] THE CHALLENGE I THINK THAT ANY
[00:37:07] MILITARY INCLUDING THE U.S. MILITARY WOULD HAVE IS KHARG
[00:37:11] ISLAND IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE IRANIAN MAINLAND AND WHAT
[00:37:16] WE'VE ALREADY SEEN IS THE IRANIANS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
[00:37:19] NUMBER OF CAPABILITIES AND
[00:37:20] CRUISE MISSILES, THAT YOU'D BE
[00:37:25] PUTTING U.S. BOOTS ON THE GROUND
[00:37:27] ON AN ISLAND RIGHT OFF THE COAST
[00:37:30] OF IRAN WITHIN RANGE OF CRUISE,
[00:37:35] BALLISTIC AND DRONES.
[00:37:38] AND I THINK THAT IS THE CHALLENGE ONE WOULD FACE.
[00:37:41] WHETHER IT WAS IN COOPERATION
[00:37:44] WITH ANOTHER COUNTRY OR NOT, THAT IS THE CHALLENGE OF A
[00:37:47] MILITARY OPERATION IS THE
[00:37:50] IRANIANS ARE NOT GOING TO ALLOW THAT TO HAPPEN WITHOUT A FIGHT.
[00:37:55] IN ANY U.S. MILITARY LEADER WHETHER YOU ARE DEPLOYING THE
[00:37:58] MARINE EXPEDITIONARY UNIT, THE
[00:38:01] AIRBORNE OR OTHER ARMY FORCES IS
[00:38:04] ARE YOU GOING TO BE OK IF AND
[00:38:06] WHEN U.S. SOLDIERS ARE KILLED OR
[00:38:10] WOUNDED ON KHARG ISLAND WITH A
[00:38:15] RUNNING MISSILES AND DRONES COMING THROUGH.
[00:38:18] THAT IS THE POLITICAL RISK THAT
[00:38:20] ANY PRESIDENT HAS TO WEIGH TRYING TO SEIZE AN ISLAND LIKE
[00:38:25] THAT. >> WAS THE ONE THING THE ADMINISTRATION SHOULD BE DOING
[00:38:29] THAT THEY'RE NOT DOING RIGHT NOW?
[00:38:30] GUEST: THE BIGGEST ISSUE THAT
[00:38:33] PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE HAPPENED IF YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE U.S.
[00:38:38] CAMPAIGNS INCLUDING THE GULF
[00:38:42] WAR, REALLY WEEKS AND MONTHS OF
[00:38:44] THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN AFTER
[00:38:48] 9/11 WAS THE U.S. PUT COALITION
[00:38:51] CENTERS OF COUNTRIES WITH AN
[00:38:53] OBJECTIVE THAT THEN WORKED IN
[00:38:57] TANDEM TO ACHIEVE POLITICAL AND
[00:39:02] MILITARY OBJECTIVES. THAT HAS NOT BEEN DONE IN MY
[00:39:04] OPINION WELL ENOUGH AND THERE
[00:39:07] ARE ENOUGH COUNTRIES IN THE GULF RIGHT NOW U.S. ALLIES THAT COULD
[00:39:10] PROVIDE RESOURCES TO HELP OPEN
[00:39:14] UP THE STRAIGHT WITH FORCE IF
[00:39:18] NECESSARY. SO FOR ME THE BIGGEST ISSUE HAS
[00:39:20] GOT TO BE BUILDING A COALITION
[00:39:23] THAT CAN WORK TOWARDS AN
[00:39:27] AGREEMENT AND IF THAT COLLAPSES
[00:39:30] THEN TELL THE IRANIANS YOU WILL
[00:39:31] FACE A COALITION GREAT I DON'T
[00:39:34] THINK THERE IS A WAY THAT THIS
[00:39:37] CHALLENGE ENDS WITHOUT SOME KIND
[00:39:40] OF A COALITION. IT SHOULD HAVE HAPPENED I THINK
[00:39:44] BEFORE THE WAR STARTED.
[00:39:45] HOST: SETH JONES, PRESIDENT OF
[00:39:49] THE DEFENSE SECURITY DEPA