CSPAN3 — Shyam Sankar Mobilize
20260806 085100 UTC
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[00:00:01] SERVICE CAREERS OF EVERY U.S. PRESIDENT, ALONG WITH KEY
[00:00:05] HISTORICAL EVENTS, LANDMARK SUPREME COURT CASES,
[00:00:07] CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS AND
[00:00:09] MAJOR TECHNOLOGY MILESTONES THROUGHOUT OUR NATION'S HISTORY.
[00:00:12] THE POSTER ALSO FEATURES A SPECIAL AMERICA TO WINDOW SECTION HIGHLIGHTING THE
[00:00:17] COUNTRY'S FOUNDING AND THE 250TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE UNITED
[00:00:21] STATES. BRING AMERICAN HISTORY HOME WITH C-SPAN.
[00:00:24] AMERICAN HISTORY TIMELINE POSTER
[00:00:26] SCAN THE CODE OR VISIT C-SPAN
[00:00:29] SHOP YOUR.
[00:00:36] FACE, JOHN.
[00:00:38] IT'S GREAT TO BE HERE BACK AT HUDSON.
[00:00:42] NOW THAT THE SNOW CREAT HAS
[00:00:45] MELTED IN WASHINGTON, WE FLORIDIANS FEEL ABLE TO VENTURE
[00:00:49] INTO THE DANGEROUS NORTH AGAIN.
[00:00:51] AND SO FAR, I HAVE TO SAY, IT'S GONE. OKAY?
[00:00:55] BUT I'M STILL A LITTLE NERVOUS. NEVER CAN QUITE TELL.
[00:00:57] AND IT'S GREAT TO BE HERE WITH
[00:01:00] CHUM WHO IS COLONEL TSHOMBE.
[00:01:04] BY THE WAY, I AM COLONEL MEAD, IF ANYBODY IS INTERESTED.
[00:01:06] I AM ACTUALLY A KENTUCKY COLONEL. I FEEL THAT WE ARE NOT GETTING
[00:01:10] THE RECOGNITION THAT WE DESERVE.
[00:01:12] NEXT, KENTUCKY DERBY. I'LL SEE YOU THERE.
[00:01:16] BUT I THINK IT'S ACTUALLY AT A
[00:01:20] TIME WHEN THE AMERICAN SORT OF CORPORATE ELITE AND INTELLECTUAL
[00:01:23] ELITE HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE
[00:01:27] ARMED SERVICES OR MOVED AWAY
[00:01:29] EVEN FROM A SENSE OF PATRIOTISM, IN SOME CASES THINKING THAT
[00:01:33] PATRIOTISM EQUALS NATIONALISM EQUALS CHRISTIAN NATIONALISM
[00:01:36] EQUALS WHITE NATIONALISM AND IS BAD, BAD, BAD.
[00:01:40] YOU'RE MOVING THE OTHER WAY. WHY?
[00:01:43] A LOT OF IT HAS TO DO WITH, I
[00:01:46] THINK, MY OWN FAMILY'S STORY AND JOURNEYS LIKE THIS COUNTRY HAS
[00:01:49] GIVEN US SO MUCH. YOU KNOW, AND MY MY FATHER, WHEN
[00:01:52] I WAS VERY YOUNG, WE FLED VIOLENCE IN NIGERIA.
[00:01:54] AND DAD REALLY RAISED ME WITH THIS EVER PRESENT SENSE OF THE
[00:01:59] COUNTERFACTUAL. LIKE NO MATTER HOW BAD THINGS ARE, YOU KNOW, THIS IS A MAN WHO
[00:02:01] HAD A TOUGH LIFE, NOT NOT EVERYTHING KIND OF WORKED OUT FOR HIM, BUT BUT FOR THE GRACE
[00:02:05] OF THIS NATION, YOU'D BE DEAD IN A DITCH IN LAGOS.
[00:02:09] AND I THINK REALLY BEING ROOTED IN UNDERSTANDING IT WAS IT WAS
[00:02:12] NOT POSSIBLE TO TAKE FOR GRANTED ALL THE THINGS THAT THIS COUNTRY
[00:02:16] ACTUALLY OFFERS IN BOUNTY. AND THEN AS A CONSEQUENCE OF
[00:02:18] THAT GRATITUDE, LIKE YOUNG CHILDREN OF MY OWN, LIKE HOW
[00:02:22] IT'S NOT GOING TO SUSTAIN ITSELF, YOU KNOW, TO PASS IT
[00:02:25] DOWN TO THE NEXT GENERATION REQUIRES US TO INVEST IN IT, TO
[00:02:28] BE PROUD OF IT, TO HOLD IT UP AS SOMETHING WE ALL CHERISH.
[00:02:32] SO I CAN'T THINK OF A MORE IMPORTANT LIFE MISSION THAN COMMITTING MYSELF TO THAT.
[00:02:37] I SPOKE TO A GROUP OF VOLUNTEERS
[00:02:40] FELLOWS AT. THESE ARE THESE ARE YOUNG PEOPLE
[00:02:44] WHO ARE DELAYING OR IN SOME CASES ENTIRELY AVOIDING COLLEGE
[00:02:48] IN ORDER TO STUDY. AND IT BEGINS WITH REALLY WITH A
[00:02:51] CRASH COURSE IN HUMANITIES. INTERESTINGLY. AND I ASKED THEM AT THE
[00:02:55] INTRODUCTION TO GO AROUND THE
[00:02:57] ROOM AND TELL ME WHO THEY WERE AND WHY THEY WERE, WHERE THEY
[00:03:00] WERE FROM AND WHY THEY WERE HERE.
[00:03:03] WHAT WAS ASTONISHING AND THIS
[00:03:06] THESE KIDS WERE VERY ETHNICALLY DIVERSE.
[00:03:08] THEY WERE VERY GEOGRAPHIC, DIVERSE.
[00:03:11] BUT KID AFTER KID SAYS, I'M HERE
[00:03:15] BECAUSE I WANT TO DEFEND THE
[00:03:17] WEST, A CONCEPT THAT IS, YOU
[00:03:20] KNOW, IN SO MUCH OF OUR SOCIETY,
[00:03:22] IT IS AN ALMOST UNSPEAKABLE CONCEPT.
[00:03:25] HOW DID THAT BECOME SO CENTRAL TO PALANTIR'S THINKING?
[00:03:27] I MEAN, I THINK IT IT'S KIND OF CONGENITAL. LIKE WE STARTED THE BUSINESS.
[00:03:32] WE WORK IN 50 DIFFERENT INDUSTRIES, MORE THAN HALF THE BUSINESS COMMERCIAL.
[00:03:35] THE COMMERCIAL IS GROWING FASTER THAN GOVERNMENT. BUT IF YOU GO BACK TO THE GENESIS OF THE BUSINESS, IT WAS
[00:03:39] REALLY JUST A BUNCH OF PEOPLE WHO WANTED TO WORK ON VERY HARD
[00:03:42] PROBLEMS AND NATIONAL SECURITY AND SILICON VALLEY IN 2004, YOU
[00:03:45] COULD NOT THINK OF A MORE CONTRARIAN CRAZY IDEA THAN THAN
[00:03:49] THAT. AND I THINK IN THE FEATURE SIDE OF THAT IS IT ACTS AS A VERY HARD FILTER.
[00:03:53] YOU KNOW, THE KIND OF SELECTION
[00:03:55] BIAS YOU GET OF PEOPLE WHO ARE
[00:03:57] DEEPLY COMMITTED IN IT AND I THINK, THANK GOD WE DID THAT
[00:04:01] BECAUSE IT WAS HASN'T BEEN AN EASY 20 YEARS TO GET TO WHERE WE ARE.
[00:04:04] IT IS THE BELIEF, ALMOST THE PATHOLOGICAL COMMITMENT TO THAT
[00:04:08] VISION AND MISSION THAT ALLOWED US TO TO DELIVER ON THAT VISION. YEAH.
[00:04:12] I MEAN, IF WE GO BACK TO THE
[00:04:14] 1990 AND EARLY 2000 AND THERE WAS A SORT OF POST-COLD WAR
[00:04:18] SENSE THAT A GREAT CORPORATION
[00:04:22] COULD NO LONGER REALLY BE A NATIONAL CORPORATION.
[00:04:24] SO YOU HAD COMPANIES SAYING, I'M NOT WE'RE NOT AN AMERICAN
[00:04:28] COMPANY. WE'RE A COMPANY OF THE WORLD. AND THERE WAS A TREMENDOUS KIND
[00:04:31] OF COSMIC POLITAN ETHOS THAT
[00:04:35] THAT PEOPLE HAD TODAY. AND THE TECH SECTOR WAS PROBABLY
[00:04:39] THE MOST COSMOPOLITAN POST
[00:04:41] NATIONAL POST HISTORICAL. YOU KNOW, IF YOU'RE A SEARCH
[00:04:45] ENGINE HAS NO HOME, SO TO SPEAK. YEAH. BUT YOU NOW LOOK AT THE
[00:04:50] SITUATION AND TECH COMPETITION
[00:04:52] AND IS NOW ALMOST THE SENSE NATURAL FOCUS OF INTERNATIONAL
[00:04:57] GOP LITICAL COMPETITION. IS THAT CHANGING THE WHOLE INDUSTRY?
[00:05:00] IS THAT CHANGING ATTITUDES MORE BROADLY?
[00:05:02] WELL, THE PRECEPT TO BEGIN WITH IS IT WAS A DELUSION.
[00:05:06] THERE WERE OBVIOUSLY ALWAYS COUNTRIES AND THESE THINGS ALL MATTERED. AND YOU COULD EXIST IN THIS KIND
[00:05:10] OF DELUSIONARY STATE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
[00:05:13] AND NOW THAT ALL HAS TO BE MARK TO MARKET AND I'D SAY DIFFERENT
[00:05:16] ACTORS ARE IN DIFFERENT STAGES OF REALIZING WHETHER IT'S A DELUSION OR NOT.
[00:05:21] BUT I THINK THE WORLD EVENTS TOO, TO SOME DEGREE UNTIL VERY
[00:05:25] RECENT KIND OF ISSUES IN TECH
[00:05:27] HAVE KIND OF CRYSTALLIZED THE
[00:05:30] REALITY OF THE THREAT TO FREEDOM.
[00:05:32] GREAT POWER COMPETITION THAT, YES, ONE DAY SOMEONE CAN JUST
[00:05:35] WAKE UP AND ROLL TANKS ACROSS A BORDER AND FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE
[00:05:39] THE LIVES OF YOUR FAMILIES, YOUR COWORKERS, THINGS THAT YOU TAKE
[00:05:42] FOR GRANTED. YOU REALLY CAN'T. IT DRIVES HOME IN A VISCERAL WAY
[00:05:46] THAT NO AMOUNT OF TALKING CAN SAY IS THAT FREEDOM ISN'T
[00:05:49] ACTUALLY FREE AND THAT THESE
[00:05:50] THINGS HAVE TO BE MAINTAINED AND
[00:05:54] THAT THEY'RE WORTHY OF INVESTING IN. OKAY.
[00:05:58] YOU MENTIONED WORLD EVENTS AND
[00:06:00] THAT REMINDS ME THERE'S ONE THING I REALLY WANT TO MAKE SURE
[00:06:04] WE ASK YOU ABOUT. YOU HAVE A PRETTY GOOD VIEW,
[00:06:07] MAYBE BETTER THAN SOME OF US IN THE CHEAP SEATS ABOUT WHAT'S
[00:06:11] ACTUALLY GOING ON IN THE MIDDLE EAST RIGHT NOW AND WHAT THE
[00:06:15] SITUATION IS. YOU WANT TO GIVE US SHARE WITH
[00:06:17] US YOUR ASSESSMENT OF WHY ARE WE
[00:06:21] THERE, HOW ARE THINGS WORKING, HOW IT MAY END? WELL, I'LL SHARE I'LL SHARE THE
[00:06:25] PARTS I CAN, YOU KNOW, SO THE PART THAT I THINK IS VERY CLEAR
[00:06:28] IS THAT IRAN IS REALLY A MARK TO MARKET MOMENT OF MANY OF THE
[00:06:32] THINGS I WROTE ABOUT IN THE BOOK. YOU KNOW.
[00:06:35] THE THE DETERRENCE HAS FAILED.
[00:06:40] YOU KNOW, WE HAVE YOU COULD SAY WE'RE MAYBE STARTING TO
[00:06:43] REESTABLISH IT, BUT YOU GO BACK TO THE ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA IN 2014, THE MILITARIZATION OF THE
[00:06:47] SPRATLY ISLANDS AND 15 JCPOA AND
[00:06:49] THE BREAKOUT CAPABILITY OF IRAN WITH THE BOMB AND 17 A POGROM IN
[00:06:55] ISRAEL. ONE THING AFTER THING, THE
[00:06:56] HOUTHIS AND THE RED SEA WERE NOT
[00:06:59] ABLE TO SECURE OUR ADVERSARIES
[00:07:01] FROM IMPACTING OUR LIFE AND THE FREEDOM AND PROSPERITY OF THE WORLD.
[00:07:04] AND CERTAINLY THE FREEDOM AND PROSPERITY OF AMERICA. AND THIS HAS BEEN A FROG BOIL
[00:07:09] AND FOR SOME OF OUR ADVERSARIES LIKE CHINA, THEY HAVE STRATEGICALLY INVESTED IN UNDER
[00:07:14] UNDERMINE MEANING AMERICAN POWER SINCE GULF WAR ONE. AND JUST NEVER THOUGHT ACTUALLY
[00:07:18] DOING THIS.
[00:07:19] AND OTHERS HAVE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF SPECIFIC OPPORTUNITIES AND
[00:07:23] MOMENTS THAT THEY MAYBE MISREAD OR READ CORRECTLY THAT BETRAY A
[00:07:28] SENSE OF RETREATING FROM THE WORLD.
[00:07:30] AND THEN I THINK IRAN REALLY SHOWS. IF YOU LOOK AT MIDNIGHT HAMMER,
[00:07:33] YOU LOOK AT MADURO, IT'S HARD TO THINK ABOUT THINGS THAT HAVE HAPPENED THAT HAVE DONE MORE TO
[00:07:37] RESTORE DETERRENCE THAN THOSE EVENTS.
[00:07:39] YOU KNOW, THERE IS THIS I LIKE TO CHARACTERIZE THE AMERICAN
[00:07:43] CHARACTER. THERE'S A SENSE IN WHICH WE SEEM NOT TO REACT.
[00:07:47] YOU KNOW, WE TURN THE OTHER CHEEK, WE TURN THE OTHER CHEEK, WE TURN THE OTHER CHEEK.
[00:07:50] BUT THERE IS A MOMENT THAT COMES WHEN WE STOP.
[00:07:52] AND THEN TO BORROW, A FAVORITE EXPRESSION I HAVE IS AND IN THAT
[00:07:56] MOMENT, YOU REALLY RISK THE AMERICAN YOU TO LOOP WHICH IS
[00:07:58] NOT OBSERVE, ORIENT, DECIDE ACT. IT'S OBSERVE, OVERREACT,
[00:08:02] DESTROY, APOLOGIZE. YEAH. AND I THINK THIS IS ALMOST SO
[00:08:08] IRRATIONAL, BUT SO PART OF THE AMERICAN CHARACTER THAT OUR ADVERSARIES CAN'T CONTEMPLATE IT.
[00:08:12] THEY CONTINUE TO MODEL US AS THESE RATIONAL ACTORS WHO KEEP
[00:08:15] TURNING OTHER CHEEK AND THEY DON'T SEE THE DISCONTINUED T THAT'S COMING. NOW, I THINK THIS IS ONE OF OUR
[00:08:19] GREAT ADVANTAGES ACTUALLY, THAT IT'S VERY HARD TO MODEL WHAT WE'RE GOING TO DO BECAUSE
[00:08:23] FRANKLY, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT WE'RE GOING TO DO WHEN WE GET THERE. BUT A BIG PART OF THIS, I THINK
[00:08:27] THE BIGGEST LIE OF GLOBALIZATION, THAT THAT OUGHT
[00:08:31] TO BE MARK TO MARKET. AND IT'S KIND OF THE UNDERCURRENT OF THE ENTIRE BOOK
[00:08:34] IS THAT THIS FACILE IDEA THAT WE
[00:08:37] WILL DO THE INNOVATION, THEY'LL DO THE PRODUCTION.
[00:08:40] WHOEVER THE DAY IS, THAT'S WRONG. IT'S WRONG BECAUSE ACTUALLY, TO
[00:08:43] BORROW A PHRASE FROM ARTHUR HERMAN, INNOVATION IS THE
[00:08:47] CONSEQUENCE OF PRODUCTION. IF YOU DON'T MAKE THE THEN YOU CAN'T INNOVATE ON HOW YOU'RE
[00:08:52] GOING TO MAKE THAT THING. SO LETTING LOOSE GROW UP AND
[00:08:54] START BEING A CHEAP CONTRACT RESEARCH ORGANIZATION IN THE
[00:08:57] PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY HAS NOW LED TO A WORLD WHERE 50% OF ALL CLINICAL TRIALS ARE HAPPENING IN
[00:09:01] CHINA. THIS WAS INEVITABLE AND OBVIOUS CONCLUSION. OUR EXPERIENCES FROM WORLD WAR
[00:09:05] TWO, WHICH WE DOCUMENT IN THE BOOK, SHOW US THAT IT'S AMAZING
[00:09:08] THAT THE SAGINAW'S STEERING GEAR COMPANY WHO'S NEVER MADE A
[00:09:12] WEAPON IN THEIR LIFE, CAN FIGURE OUT HOW TO MAKE A WEAPON IN A
[00:09:16] 100TH THE TIME THAT THE US ARMY COULD BEFORE THEM.
[00:09:18] AND WHEN YOU THEN REFLECT ON THAT IN A BROADER SENSE, THE
[00:09:22] ENTIRE AMERICAN ECONOMY WAS STRUCTURED VERY, VERY DIFFERENTLY. WE HAD WHAT I LIKE TO CALL AS
[00:09:26] DUAL PURPOSE COMPANIES. IT'S NOT ABOUT THE DUAL USE PRODUCT, I THINK.
[00:09:29] I THINK TOO MUCH HAS BEEN SAID ABOUT THAT AND KIND OF MISUNDERSTANDS WHAT'S HAPPENING HERE.
[00:09:33] BUT A DUAL PURPOSE COMPANY IS ONE THAT UNDERSTANDS THAT, YES,
[00:09:36] MAYBE THEIR MAIN BUSINESS IS
[00:09:39] PROSPERITY, BUT THERE'S ALSO A PART OF THIS THAT THEY HAVE TO
[00:09:42] BE COMMITTED TO FREEDOM. AND WE SEE THIS, YOU KNOW,
[00:09:45] CHRYSLER DIDN'T JUST BUILD MINIVANS. THEY BUILT THE MINUTEMAN.
[00:09:49] THEY BUILT MISSILES. FORD USED TO BUILD SATELLITES UNTIL 1990.
[00:09:53] GENERAL MILLS, THE CEREAL COMPANY, BUILT TORPEDOES,
[00:09:57] EVERYTHING. WHY? WHY WOULD THAT BE RATIONAL? I LIKE THE GENERAL MILLS EXAMPLE BECAUSE IT'S KIND OF A CRAZY
[00:10:01] ONE, WHICH, BY THE WAY, IF YOU GO TO THEIR CORPORATE WEBSITE, YOU WON'T FIND THAT IN THE HISTORY.
[00:10:05] BUT I THINK IT'S KIND OF ODD,
[00:10:06] BUT THEY BUILT TORPEDOES BECAUSE THEY HAD A MECHANICS DIVISION
[00:10:10] AND MECHANICS DIVISION JOB WAS TO BUILD MACHINERY. THAT PROCESS GRAIN.
[00:10:13] EVERYTHING THEY LEARNED, BUILDING THAT CLASS OF MACHINERY
[00:10:16] ALLOWED THEM TO BUILD BUILD MACHINE TOOLS TO BUILD WEAPONS
[00:10:20] OF WAR THAT DROVE DETERRENCE. THIS IS PROFOUNDLY IMPORTANT
[00:10:23] BECAUSE IT DRIVES THE R&D CYCLE.
[00:10:26] LIKE IF THE GOVERNMENT HAS TO DO ALL OF THE R&D ENTIRELY ON ITS
[00:10:30] OWN, IT'S UNAFFORDABLE, IT'S INEFFICIENT, IT AND IT'S STRUCTURALLY THE GOVERNMENT IS
[00:10:33] ALWAYS GOING TO LEAD TO A FORM OF CENTRALIZED PLANNING, AS I
[00:10:37] LIKE TO QUIP. EVERYONE'S GIVEN UP ON COMMUNISM, INCLUDING THE CHINESE AND THE RUSSIANS, EXCEPT FOR
[00:10:41] CUBA AND THE DOD. AND THAT'S THE CONCEPT.
[00:10:45] IT'S THE CONSEQUENCE OF BEING A MONOPSONY. IT'S NOT BECAUSE THEY WANT TO BE
[00:10:48] COMMUNISTS, IT'S BECAUSE AS A MONOPSONY, YOU DON'T HAVE ANY MARKET FORCES.
[00:10:52] YOU DON'T HAVE SOMEONE IN THE BRUTAL COMMERCIAL SECTOR. YOU WAKE UP EVERY DAY WITH A
[00:10:55] COMPETITOR TRYING TO KILL YOU. AND THAT IS THE STIMULUS THAT ALLOWS YOU TO INNOVATE AND OR DIE.
[00:11:01] RIGHT. BUT THAT THAT ISN'T REALLY THERE
[00:11:03] ABSENT CONFLICT IN THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR.
[00:11:06] AND OBVIOUSLY, WE DON'T WANT TO FIND OUT THESE THINGS IN CONFLICT.
[00:11:09] WE WANT TO FIND OUT THEM WELL BEFORE THEN. AND WE ACTUALLY HAD A VERY
[00:11:12] ROBUST SYSTEM IN WORLD WAR TWO
[00:11:15] AND IN THE EARLY COLD WAR THAT SOLVED FOR THESE PROBLEMS REALLY WELL.
[00:11:18] WE BUILT 154 DIFFERENT AIRFRAMES IN WORLD WAR TWO.
[00:11:21] I'M PRETTY SURE ONLY TEN OF THEM WERE DETERMINATIVE TO SUCCESS. BUT IN THOSE STATISTICS BELIES
[00:11:25] THE FACT THAT NO ONE KNEW WHICH TEN THEY WERE GOING TO BE OTHERWISE.
[00:11:28] WE REALLY ONLY BUILT TEN, RIGHT? LIKE THERE IS A PROCESS TO THE PRODUCTION, THE EXPERIMENTATION
[00:11:33] THAT LED TO THE INNOVATION AND A LOT OF THIS COMES DOWN TO THE PRIMACY OF PEOPLE.
[00:11:36] MAYBE THE SECOND GREAT LIE THAT WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO IMBIBE SINCE
[00:11:40] THE END OF THE COLD WAR IS THAT
[00:11:44] THERE'S A PROCESS THAT WILL SAVE US. YOU KNOW, WHAT WE REALLY NEED IS
[00:11:48] ACQUISITION REFORM. WE NEED THIS. THERE'S JUST A PROCESS TO DO IT. BUT IF YOU REALLY LOOK AT WHAT
[00:11:52] WORKED, IT WAS THE PRIMACY OF GREAT PEOPLE, WHICH I THINK SPEAKS PROFOUNDLY TO THE AMERICAN CHARACTER.
[00:11:55] WE UNDERSTAND THAT FOUNDERS MATTER. WE CALL THEM THE FOUNDING
[00:12:00] FATHERS FOR A REASON. YOU KNOW, EUROPE IS CREATED ZERO COMPANIES IN THE LAST 50 YEARS
[00:12:03] FROM SCRATCH, CREATED ALL OF OUR
[00:12:07] TRILLION DOLLAR COMPANIES FROM SCRATCH IN THE LAST 50 YEARS.
[00:12:11] Y YOU KNOW, OUR TOLERANCE FOR
[00:12:13] AND MAYBE EVEN PROCLIVITY TO ENJOYING THE HERETICAL HERO, THE
[00:12:19] HERETIC WHO DOES SOMETHING CRAZY, WHO AGAINST THE ODDS, SUCCEEDS.
[00:12:22] AND THE HEROISM IS AN EX POST THING THAT WHAT THEY DID WORKED.
[00:12:25] BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE HISTORY OF ALL DEFENSE INNOVATION, I'M
[00:12:29] PRETTY SURE LIKE LITERALLY ALL OF IT COMES DOWN TO SOME HERETIC
[00:12:32] WHO BUCKED THE SYSTEM, WHO TOOK,
[00:12:34] YOU KNOW, MAYBE NOT HE DIDN'T GET CREDIT UNTIL HE DIED OR SHE
[00:12:37] DIED AND AND DELIVERED THE THE OUTCOME. AND I THINK TELLING THOSE
[00:12:40] STORIES, WHICH WE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE BOOK IS REALLY IMPORTANT BECAUSE I WANTED TO
[00:12:44] MOTIVATE THE HERETICS WHO ARE LATENT TODAY.
[00:12:47] THEY'RE LATENT IN THE DEPARTMENT. THEY ABSOLUTELY ARE THERE.
[00:12:49] OUR MILITARY IS THE BEST IN THE WORLD. THE UNIFORMED SERVICE MEMBERS ARE BETTER THAN WE DESERVE AS A
[00:12:55] NATION. PART OF THIS IS ABOUT THE EMPLOYMENT OF THE TALENT, THE
[00:12:57] EMPLACEMENT OF THE TOWN AND KIND
[00:12:59] OF MOTIVATING THEM TO GO TAKE THESE RISKS.
[00:13:02] YOU KNOW, IT ISN'T A CAREER. IT'S OKAY IF YOU'RE A KAMIKAZE
[00:13:04] BECAUSE YOUR KAMIKAZE MOVES MAY BE THE ONLY THING THAT LEAD US TO WIN THE WAR.
[00:13:08] YOU WERE SAYING EARLIER THAT SOMETHING I THOUGHT INTERESTING
[00:13:12] THAT THAT YOU FOUND THAT AIR TALENT IN THE U.S. MILITARY MUCH
[00:13:16] GREATER THAN YOU EXPECTED. AND YOU THINK IT MAY HAVE A
[00:13:19] BIGGER ROLE THE THE TALENT OF THE UNIFORMED MILITARY? ABSOLUTELY.
[00:13:24] I WOULD EVEN SAY AS AS A EVIDENCE THERE, WE RECENTLY HAD
[00:13:27] A HACKATHON AT A DEVELOPER CONFERENCE ABOUT YOUR HACKATHON
[00:13:31] AND THE WINNING TEAM. YOU KNOW, YOU HAD ALL OF US PRIVATE SECTOR THERE, ALL THESE A.I. DEVELOPERS.
[00:13:35] THE WINNING TEAM WAS FOUR UNIFORMED SERVICE MEMBERS FROM THE ARMY.
[00:13:39] SO WHAT I THINK IS VERY ENCOURAGING IS THAT FIRST, I
[00:13:43] THINK IN MANY WAYS, THE MILITARY ADOPTION OF AI IS AHEAD OF THE
[00:13:46] US COMMERCIAL SECTOR AND THAT'S SAYING SOMETHING BECAUSE THE US COMMERCIAL SECTOR IS NOT ASLEEP
[00:13:50] AT THE WHEEL COMPARED TO EUROPE OR SOMETHING, RIGHT?
[00:13:54] SO AND I THINK A BIG PART OF THAT IS, IS THAT I THINK THE
[00:13:57] NATURE OF AI AND ITS IMPACT ON
[00:14:01] ARE PEOPLE THE AMERICAN WORKER IS MISSING. UNDERSTOOD.
[00:14:03] I LIKE TO THINK ABOUT THIS AS WE
[00:14:05] ARE LISTENING TO THE WRONG
[00:14:08] PEOPLE ABOUT WHAT IS IMPACTS GOING TO BE. WE'RE LISTENING TO THE INVENTORS
[00:14:12] OF THE TECHNOLOGY. AT FIRST BLUSH, THAT MAY SEEM VERY REASONABLE, BUT IF YOU GO
[00:14:15] BACK TO THE MICROSCOPE, THE PERSONAL COMPUTER, THE POWER
[00:14:19] LOOM, THE TELESCOPE, IT WAS NOT THE INVENTORS THAT DETERMINED
[00:14:22] ITS IMPACT ON SOCIETY. IT WAS THE PEOPLE WHO WIELDED THE TECHNOLOGY.
[00:14:26] GALILEO DID NOT INVENT THE TELESCOPE. HE USED THE TELESCOPE TO
[00:14:29] DISCOVER THE PLANETS. PLANETARY MOTION. RIGHT.
[00:14:32] AND SO WHILE IT'S VERY CHARISMATIC TO LISTEN TO THESE PEOPLE WHO ARE INCREDIBLY
[00:14:36] BRILLIANT, THEY THEMSELVES, JUST LIKE THEIR CREATION, HAVE A FORM
[00:14:39] OF JAGGED INTELLIGENCE, YOU KNOW, JUST BECAUSE THEY BUILT
[00:14:41] THE THING DOESN'T MEAN THEY UNDERSTAND THE IMPLICATIONS OF IT. WHO SHOULD WE BE LISTENING TO?
[00:14:44] THE FRONT LINE.
[00:14:46] LISTEN TO THE FIRES OFFICER THAT'S TRANSFORMING THE WORK WITH.
[00:14:50] HEY, I LISTEN TO THE ICU NURSE WHOSE ENTIRE SHIFT IN SEPSIS MANAGEMENT HAS CHANGED BECAUSE OF THIS.
[00:14:55] LISTEN TO THEM NOT ONLY BECAUSE
[00:14:57] YOU'LL HEAR HOW EXCITED THEY ARE ABOUT ITS TRANSFORMATIONAL
[00:15:01] IMPACT IN TERMS OF THEIR VOCATION, BUT ALSO HOW EXCITED THEY ARE ABOUT A FUTURE IN
[00:15:04] AMERICA FOR THEIR CHILDREN THAT IS ADOPTED.
[00:15:08] AI AND THESE ARE THE VOICES, OF COURSE, THAT DON'T GET INVITED TO WRITE OP EDS OR GO TO A TALK
[00:15:12] SHOW OR JOIN A MEDIA THING. BUT I THINK THIS IS PROFOUNDLY
[00:15:16] DANGEROUS BECAUSE A.I. IS
[00:15:18] DAVID'S SLINGSHOT AGAINST GOLIATH, YOU KNOW? OKAY.
[00:15:21] I JUST TOLD YOU ABOUT ALL THESE LIES WE'VE IMBIBED THE MYTH OF
[00:15:24] GLOBALIZATION, THE LOSS OF INNOVATION TO SEEDING
[00:15:28] PRODUCTIVITY. BUT I YOU KNOW, I TOLD YOU HOW
[00:15:30] WE DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT WE'RE GOING TO DO, RIGHT? WELL, THE CHINESE ARE THE BEST
[00:15:34] AT LONG RANGE PLANNING. THEY'VE THOUGHT THEY HAVE THE BEST PLANS SINCE GULF WAR ONE
[00:15:37] AND MAYBE EVEN BEFORE, SOME SAY ALL THE WAY TO MAO HOW TO
[00:15:39] UNDERMINE AMERICAN POWER. YOU KNOW, IT WASN'T ON THEIR PLAN.
[00:15:43] I I'M ON THEIR PLAN WASN'T ON OUR PLAN. RIGHT. IN THIS SORT OF REACTING TO
[00:15:47] REALITY IS AN AMERICAN STRENGTH. AND SO THE PROMISE OF AI IS THAT
[00:15:51] WE REALIZE THAT IT IS THE WAY THAT WE GIVE THE AMERICAN
[00:15:54] WORKERS SUPERPOWERS. HOW DO WE MAKE THE AMERICAN WORKER 50 TIMES MORE PRODUCTIVE
[00:15:58] THAN ANY OTHER WORKER ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD? AND THAT IS THE BASIS OF
[00:16:02] UNDERWRITING THE RE INDUSTRIALIZATION OF OUR COUNTRY.
[00:16:04] AND THAT IS THE ANTIDOTE, THE
[00:16:06] PROFOUNDLY NEGATIVE MANAGERIAL REVOLUTION OF THE 20TH CENTURY
[00:16:09] WHERE WE SUCKED A POWER AWAY FROM HIGH AGENCY LEADERS AND FROM THE PEOPLE WHO ACTUALLY DO
[00:16:13] THE WORK TO A KIND OF AMORPHOUS MIDDLE MANAGEMENT LAYER IS
[00:16:17] ACTUALLY PUSHING AGENCY BACK IN BOTH DIRECTIONS.
[00:16:20] IT IS. IT IS ACTUALLY THE FIRES OFF IT.
[00:16:22] THERE'S ACTUALLY THE PERSON ON THE FACTORY FLOOR WHO'S BUILDING
[00:16:26] THE AI APPS. AND I THINK THIS IS PROFOUNDLY EMPOWERING.
[00:16:29] I THINK ONE OF THE REASONS WE'RE SEEING THIS REVOLUTION IN THE MILITARY IS THAT YOU HAVE
[00:16:33] PROFOUND SUBJECT MATTER EXPERTS WHO ACTUALLY UNDERSTAND WHAT THEY'RE DOING.
[00:16:36] NO LONGER NEED TO GO CONVINCE A BUREAUCRATIC MIDDLE MANAGEMENT
[00:16:39] THAT THEIR IDEAS FOR THE FUTURE ARE CORRECT. INSTEAD, IN TWO WEEKS, THEY GO
[00:16:42] OFF AND BUILD IT, AND THEN THEY'RE ARGUING ABOUT AN EMPIRICAL THING, WHICH THEY'RE
[00:16:47] GOING TO WIN THAT ARGUMENT BECAUSE IT IS DELIVERING RESULTS IN REALITY.
[00:16:50] AND SO IT'S MASSIVELY EMPOWERING THAT WAY.
[00:16:52] AND I THINK THIS ADVANTAGES PEOPLE WITH SPECIFIC KNOWLEDGE
[00:16:56] OVER GENERAL KNOWLEDGE. AND THAT PART OF THE FELLOWS PROGRAM WE HAVE IS RECOGNIZING,
[00:17:00] OKAY, WHAT WILL EDUCATION HAVE TO LOOK LIKE IN A WORLD THAT LOOKS LIKE THIS?
[00:17:05] PROBABLY THE ONE THING YOU'RE GOING TO LEARN A LOT OF STUFF ON THE JOB IN THE FUTURE. THE ONE THING YOU WILL NOT LEARN
[00:17:09] IS THE HUMANITIES. A GROUNDING IN THE WESTERN CANON
[00:17:13] AS I THINK LEO STRAUSS SAID. SOME SAY EINSTEIN, TOO, HAD A VERSION OF THIS, THE SAME SORT
[00:17:17] OF THINKING THAT LED YOU TO CREATE THE BOMB CANNOT BE THE SAME SORT OF THINKING THAT TELLS
[00:17:20] YOU HOW TO GOVERN ITS USE. HMM. YEAH.
[00:17:24] NOW I THINK YOU'RE YOU'RE OPTIMISM ABOUT WHAT I CAN DO.
[00:17:28] I FIND REALLY STRIKING AND CERTAINLY, AS YOU WERE TALKING,
[00:17:32] I WAS THINKING ABOUT HOW HISTORIC.
[00:17:35] THE ONE OF THE WAY EDGES OF THE
[00:17:38] U.S. MILITARY OVER OTHER MILITARIES, REALLY IN EVERY
[00:17:40] CONFLICT SINCE THE REVOLUTION HAS BEEN THIS SENSE THAT IN THE
[00:17:44] US ARMY, IN CEOS AND UNIT
[00:17:48] COMMANDERS, HAD MORE SORT OF
[00:17:50] AUTONOMY AND AUTHORITY AND USED
[00:17:52] THAT IN VERY CREATIVE WAYS. IT SOUNDS LIKE YOU'RE SAYING
[00:17:55] THIS IS THIS IS STRENGTHENING OUR SUPERPOWER.
[00:17:58] YES, IT'S EXACTLY THAT. YEAH.
[00:18:02] AND IT'S ALSO THE DOING THAT SAME THING ON THE FACTORY FLOOR
[00:18:07] AND INDUSTRY. BUT HOW MANY JOBS WILL THERE
[00:18:09] ACTUALLY BE IF WE RE INDUSTRIALIZE THE COUNTRY WITH
[00:18:13] WITH A I THINK A LOT. SO I'LL GIVE YOU ONE.
[00:18:17] YOU KNOW, THERE'S ALL OF THESE NARRATIVE VIOLATIONS, PEOPLE I THINK IT'S OVERWROUGHT IN THE
[00:18:21] MEDIA. PEOPLE ARE LIKE, LOOK AT A.I. LEADING THESE JOB LOSSES. IF YOU ACTUALLY JUST EVEN LINE
[00:18:24] UP THE TIMING, IT'S LIKE THE ORIGINAL CHATBOT DIDN'T RESULT
[00:18:27] IN ANY JOB LOSSES, BUT PEOPLE DIDN'T WANT TO IMMEDIATELY ASSIGN THE LAYOFFS AT SOME COMPANY.
[00:18:31] CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION WOULD BE THE SHORT FORM OF ANSWERING THAT QUESTION ON THE
[00:18:35] OTHER SIDE, IN THE POSITIVE,
[00:18:37] WE'VE BEEN WORKING WITH A PARTS
[00:18:40] MANUFACTURER THAT WAS ABLE TO USE AI TO AUTOMATE THEIR
[00:18:42] PLANNING PROCESS. SO WHEN THEY WERE DOING PLANNING, NO PRODUCTION WAS
[00:18:46] HAPPENING BECAUSE THEY GOT WE GOT PLANNING DOWN FROM WEEKS TO
[00:18:49] REALLY MINUTES. THEY FOUND THAT THEY HAD SO MUCH
[00:18:52] MORE PARTS TO PRODUCE IN IDLE CAPACITY TO PRODUCE IT THAT THEY HIRED A THIRD SHIFT.
[00:18:56] AND SO HERE YOU HAVE A VERY CONCRETE EXAMPLE OF HOW AI IS
[00:19:00] LEADING TO MORE BLUE COLLAR JOBS.
[00:19:03] AND I DON'T MEAN THE FACILE LOOK. I'M VERY HAPPY THAT WE HAVE BLUE COLLAR JOBS BUILDING DATA
[00:19:07] CENTERS AND ALL THAT SORT OF STUFF, BUT THAT THERE'S AN EPHEMERIS TO THAT. YOU BUILD A DATA CENTER AND
[00:19:10] WHATEVER I'M TALKING ABOUT, THE ACTUAL REAL ECONOMY THAT WILL
[00:19:13] ALWAYS EXIST. WHERE IS LEADING DWELL TIME IS
[00:19:16] DELETING THE DEAD WEIGHT LOSS
[00:19:18] THAT WE JUST KIND OF ASSUME CAN'T BE MOVED AROUND TODAY.
[00:19:22] THAT ENABLES US TO EMPLOY HUMANS IN MORE PRODUCTIVE WAYS.
[00:19:25] AND YOU KNOW, AS YOU ACKNOWLEDGE
[00:19:28] IN THE BOOK, OUR D INDUSTRIALIZATION HAS GIVEN
[00:19:30] CHINA ALL OF THESE ADVANTAGES IN
[00:19:32] TERMS OF INNOVATION, CAPACITY AND PRODUCTION BASED ON
[00:19:37] PRODUCTION. AND AND YOUR IDEA IS THAT SOMEHOW A.I. IS THIS IS THE
[00:19:41] SPECIAL SAUCE THAT'S GOING TO ALLOW THE RESHORING OF AND THE
[00:19:46] RECREATION. YEAH. BECAUSE SO IF YOU CAN GIVE THE AMERICAN WORKER SUPERPOWERS, IF YOU CAN MAKE THEM 50 TIMES MORE
[00:19:50] PRODUCTIVE, IT'S A DIRECTIONAL AMBITION. WHAT I'M SAYING IS LIKE, NO ONE'S TRYING TO DO THIS TO MAKE
[00:19:54] US 10% MORE PRODUCTIVE. I'M TALKING ABOUT ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE OF PRODUCTIVITY.
[00:19:58] NOW, YOU BEND THE COST CURVE LIKE THAT, THE COST OF MAKING
[00:20:00] THINGS IN THE US IS POTENTIALLY CHEAPER.
[00:20:03] IT ALSO FORCES YOU TO THINK ABOUT NEW WAYS OF MAKING THINGS. YOU'RE PROBABLY GOING TO USE AUTONOMOUS FACTORIES.
[00:20:07] FROM HADRIAN, NOT LEGACY WAYS OF DOING THESE THINGS.
[00:20:10] AND THIS SORT OF CHALLENGE STIMULUS IS ACTUALLY GOING TO BE
[00:20:13] A BOLUS OF INNOVATION AS WE DRIVE THE RE INDUSTRIALIZATION.
[00:20:15] AND THERE'S A LOT OF EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THIS IS LIKELY POSSIBLE. LOOK AT SPACE X, YOU KNOW, AS A
[00:20:19] VERTICALLY INTEGRATED MANUFACTURER, R&D IS CO-LOCATED WITH PRODUCTION.
[00:20:23] IT'S NOT TRUE THAT WE'RE NOT GOOD AT MAKING THINGS IN THIS COUNTRY.
[00:20:26] ACTUALLY, SOME OF THE MOST PROFOUND THINGS THAT ARE HAPPENING RIGHT NOW AT SCALE ARE
[00:20:30] HAPPENING IN THIS COUNTRY. WE'RE MAKING THEM DIFFERENTLY.
[00:20:32] AND THOSE LESSONS WE NEED TO KIND OF SPREAD OUT AS WE'RE
[00:20:37] INDUSTRIALIZE. OKAY.
[00:20:40] THINKING OF APPLYING THIS COST CURVE, YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT THE
[00:20:44] INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY TO MILITARY TECHNOLOGY.
[00:20:46] I KNOW WE'RE ALL READING IN THE IN THE WAR IN THE GULF THAT
[00:20:50] WE'RE USING THESE $2 MILLION
[00:20:53] MISSILES TO SHOOT DOWN $10,000
[00:20:56] DRONES OR OR WHATEVER. AND PRETTY SOON WE'RE GOING TO RUN OUT AND BE UNABLE TO BUY.
[00:21:00] YOU DON'T ACTUALLY THINK THAT'S
[00:21:02] THE SITUATION. YOU WANT TO EXPLAIN WHY? YEAH, WELL, A LOT OF THE
[00:21:06] MUNITIONS WE HAVE ARE PRETTY OLD, ACTUALLY.
[00:21:09] THERE'S THERE'S AN OPPORTUNITY HERE. YES. WE'RE EXPANDING MUNITIONS.
[00:21:12] WE'RE ALSO GOING TO HAVE TO RESTOCK THAT. SO I'VE ALWAYS FELT THE
[00:21:15] DETERRENT IS NOT THE STOCKPILE. THIS IS THE LESSON WE SHOULD HAVE LEARNED INSTANTLY FROM UKRAINE.
[00:21:19] HOW DO YOU GO THROUGH TEN YEARS OF PRODUCTION IN TEN WEEKS AND NOT THINK CLEARLY?
[00:21:21] THE STOCKPILE IS NOT NOT THE QUESTION. THE QUESTION IS YOUR ABILITY TO
[00:21:24] GENERATE AND REGENERATE THE STOCKPILE, RIGHT. IT'S PRODUCTION.
[00:21:28] WE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY NOW TO REALLY RAMP PRODUCTION, AND THAT
[00:21:32] MEANS THAT WE CAN RE-IMAGINE THESE MUNITIONS. YOU DON'T HAVE TO MAKE THEM THE SAME OLD WAY.
[00:21:35] THE THING THAT USED TO COST $2 MILLION, I'M NOT EVEN TALKING ABOUT NEW CLASSES OF AMMUNITION.
[00:21:39] HOW DO YOU HOW DO YOU MAKE THE SAME MUNITION AT A SUBSTANTIALLY
[00:21:43] LOWER COST BASIS? HOW DO YOU REIMAGINE SOME OF THE DESIGN THAT IS, BY THE WAY, THIS
[00:21:46] IS COMPLETELY PRECEDENTED. THIS IS WHAT WE DID IN WORLD WAR
[00:21:49] TWO WITH ANTI-AIRCRAFT WEAPONS, WITH MACHINE GUNS. WE WENT TO AMERICAN INDUSTRY.
[00:21:53] WE SAID THIS IS THE ARMY SPEC OF THE THING. ALL OF THEM TOOK THAT AND
[00:21:57] ITERATED ON IT AND PRODUCED BETWEEN TEN X AND 100 X IMPROVEMENT IN PRODUCTIVITY AND
[00:22:02] COST. SO WITHOUT THE STIMULUS, THOUGH,
[00:22:05] IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN WITHOUT THE PRECIPICE, WITHOUT
[00:22:08] REALIZING, HEY, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO DO A LOT OF MAGAZINE REGENERATE HERE, WHERE WE'RE
[00:22:12] GOING HAVE TO THINK ABOUT THESE THINGS DIFFERENTLY WITHOUT BEING FORCED TO SAY THE HISTORICAL
[00:22:15] CONSTRAINTS, THE BUREAUCRACY. WE ACCEPTED THE THINGS THAT WE THOUGHT WERE RULES THAT ARE NOT
[00:22:21] ACTUALLY THE LAWS OF PHYSICS. THEY'RE NOT REAL. THE ONLY, YOU KNOW, THE PRIMACY
[00:22:25] OF WINNING COMES TO THE FORE
[00:22:27] WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING DOWN THE BARREL OF A GUN.
[00:22:30] AND, YOU KNOW, THE ONLY THING YOU ARE LITERALLY CONSTRAINED BY IS PHYSICS.
[00:22:36] AND SO THESE TOMAHAWKS, I GUESS THEY'RE WHAT, THEIR 1980S TECHNOLOGY.
[00:22:40] AND SO THE CONCEPT IS THE REPLACEMENT DOESN'T NEED TO
[00:22:44] REMODEL ALL THE 1980S TECH IN THE SAME WAY. YEAH.
[00:22:48] TO JUST USE IT AS AN EXAMPLE OF FIRST OF ALL, TOMAHAWKS REALLY A BEAUTIFUL WEAPON. YOU KNOW, THERE'S KIND OF A
[00:22:52] JOKE, YOU KNOW, HEY, I'VE GOT THIS ONE WAY ATTACK DRONE.
[00:22:55] IT FLIES 1100 MILES. IT OPERATES GPS DENIED.
[00:23:01] IT'S STEALTH. OH, WHEN'S IT COMING?
[00:23:04] 84, 20, 20, 84. NO, NO. 1984.
[00:23:09] STOMACH. THE PROBLEM, OF COURSE, IS IT'S, YOU KNOW, 1.4 TO $2 MILLION A POP.
[00:23:13] AND SO HOW DO YOU GET THE PRICE PERFORMANCE TO CHANGE REALLY?
[00:23:17] WELL, YOU NEED VOLUME. YOU NEED A CAPITALIZED SUPPLY
[00:23:19] CHAIN AND IN NEW WAYS OF DOING PRODUCTION. AND UNLESS YOU'RE GOING TO GO
[00:23:24] FROM 600 TO 2000 OR WHATEVER, THE NUMBER WILL ULTIMATELY BE, YOU DON'T ACTUALLY HAVE THE
[00:23:27] STIMULUS YOU NEED TO DRIVE THE INNOVATION AGAINST IT.
[00:23:30] AND THE STIMULUS YOU NEED TO RE CONSIDER THE CONSTRAINTS THAT
[00:23:33] ARE KIND OF CONGEALED SINCE
[00:23:35] 1984, IN THE PRODUCTION PROCESS. RIGHT.
[00:23:38] WHICH AGAIN, GETS YOU RIGHT INTO
[00:23:40] THE YEAR ACQUISITION PROCESS CONCEPTS. AND YOU YOU SAY YOU'RE NOT A
[00:23:44] YOU'RE NOT A GUY WHO THINKS THERE'S A PROCESS FIX TO EVERYTHING, BUT YOU DO SEEM TO
[00:23:47] THINK THERE'S A PROCESS PROBLEM TO A LOT OF THINGS. YEAH.
[00:23:51] I MEAN, I THINK PROCESS ENDS UP BEING A CRITICAL LIKE EVERYONE
[00:23:53] LIKES TO MAKE FUN OF DAVID PACKARD'S 5000 SERIES DOD
[00:23:58] ACQUISITION REGULATIONS. YOU KNOW, THIS IS LIKE 2000 PAGES OF ACQUISITION
[00:24:02] REGULATIONS. WELL, WHEN DAVID PACKARD WROTE IT, CO-FOUNDER OF HP, WHILE
[00:24:04] WE'RE ON THE THEME OF FOUNDERS, IT WAS SEVEN PAGES.
[00:24:08] SO DID DAVID PACKARD SCREW US WITH ALL THIS ACQUISITION
[00:24:12] REGULATION OR DID THE KIND OF ENTROPY OF THE BUREAUCRACY OVER
[00:24:16] 60, 70 YEARS ACTUALLY JUST BUILD SOMETHING THAT IN NO WAY, SHAPE
[00:24:18] OR FORM RESEMBLES HIS ORIGINAL INTENT?
[00:24:21] AND SO, YEAH, THERE'S A LOT OF
[00:24:24] THE PROCESS REALLY HELPS YOU, I THINK PROCESS IN SERVICE OF A
[00:24:27] PRINCIPLE PROCESS IN SERVICE OF THE ARTIST, THE FOUNDER FIGURE
[00:24:31] THAT GIVES YOU A LOT OF SCALE PROCESS IN THE ABSENCE OF IT
[00:24:35] ACTUALLY, IT'S KIND OF A, IT'S A PATHOLOGY LEADS YOU TO MANAGE
[00:24:39] DECLINE, RIGHT? AND YOU WOULD SAY THAT IN THAT
[00:24:42] IN A NUMBER OF THE PRIMES THE
[00:24:45] MANAGED DECLINE HAS GONE FAIRLY FAR, I THINK.
[00:24:48] I MEAN, AND I PUT THE BLAME FOR THAT SQUARELY ON THE PRIME
[00:24:52] CONTRACT FOR SQUARELY AT THE AT THE FEET OF THE GOVERNMENT. YOU KNOW, IT'S LIKE IN A
[00:24:56] MONOPSONY, YOU KNOW, AS THE AS THE SOLE BUYER, YOU GET WHAT YOU
[00:25:00] PAY FOR, YOU GET WHAT YOU'RE INCENTIVIZED. WHAT ARE YOU ASKING OF THEM?
[00:25:03] WHAT ARE THEY SUPPOSED TO BE? YOU KNOW, IF THEY TRIED TO BE HERETICS ALL THE TIME, THEY
[00:25:07] WOULD HAVE GONE OUT OF BUSINESS BECAUSE THEY WOULD NOT HAVE SURVIVED THAT, YOU KNOW?
[00:25:11] AND SO I THINK HAVING A DEPARTMENT OF WAR, WHICH WE DO
[00:25:13] RIGHT NOW, THAT REALIZES THAT AND HAS BLOWN UP JAY-Z'S I MEAN
[00:25:17] HUDSON'S IN A LOT OF OF GREAT THOUGHT LEADERSHIP THERE THAT
[00:25:20] HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED INTO POLICY
[00:25:22] SLASHING THE BUREAUCRACY, EMPOWERING PEOPLE IN THE IS YOU
[00:25:26] KNOW THERE'S OPPORTUNITY HERE. NONE OF THIS IS DONE NONE OF THIS FULLY REALIZED.
[00:25:29] BUT IT SETS THE CONDITIONS AND WHAT I WOULD SAY IS WE SHOULD
[00:25:32] EXPECT MORE VARIANCE, NOT LESS. A LOT OF THIS PROCESS AND BUREAUCRACY HAS BEEN BUILT UP TO
[00:25:37] TRY TO MANAGE AGAINST CATASTROPHICALLY BAD OUTCOMES.
[00:25:41] BUT I THINK EVEN EVEN IN THE BEST CASE, THE PROCESS
[00:25:44] GUARANTEES MEDIOCRITY MIGHT GUARANTEE SOMETHING LESS THAN MEDIOCRITY.
[00:25:47] BUT YOU BUT YOU KNOW, YOU CAN'T GET RID OF ONE END OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF OUTCOMES, WHICH
[00:25:51] IS ALL THE BAD OUTCOMES WITH ALL WITHOUT ALSO GETTING RID OF THE OTHER END OF THE DISTRIBUTION,
[00:25:55] WHICH IS ALL THE EXCEPTIONAL OUTCOMES. AND WHETHER YOU LOOK AT THE MINUTEMAN OR THE HIGGINS BOAT OR
[00:26:00] INVENT OR EVEN THE TANK, WHICH WAS WAS CHURCHILL'S HERESY
[00:26:03] AGAINST THE ARMY, THE BRITISH ARMY, YOU KNOW, THE ROYAL NAVY
[00:26:08] INVENTED THE TANK. CAN YOU THINK OF SOMETHING MORE CRAZY IN THAT?
[00:26:11] BECAUSE BECAUSE THE BRITISH ARMY DIDN'T THINK THEY WOULD NEED ANYTHING OTHER THAN HORSES, YOU
[00:26:14] KNOW, AND SO STORY AFTER STORY, THE SIDEWINDER WAS LIKE A ROAD
[00:26:17] PROJECT THAT YOU KNOW, HUMILIATED THE AIR FORCE'S
[00:26:21] FALCON MISSILE. IT'S LIKE WE KNOW THIS IS WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE.
[00:26:26] AND I THINK WE'RE FINALLY GETTING POSTURED TO TO EMPOWER
[00:26:28] THOSE HERETICS TO GO BE HEROES AGAIN.
[00:26:30] WE'VE GOT A LOT OF YOUNG PEOPLE HERE WATCHING THIS.
[00:26:34] WE ALSO HAVE PEOPLE REMOTELY VIEWING.
[00:26:38] SO HOW DOES A YOUNG PERSON LISTENING TO THIS IS INSPIRED TO SAY, OKAY, HOW DO I BECOME A
[00:26:43] HERETIC? HOW DO I ESCAPE THE TRAP OF CONVENTIONAL THINKING?
[00:26:46] WHAT WOULD YOU SUGGEST? WELL, I'LL ANSWER IT SLIGHTLY
[00:26:50] INDIRECTLY TO START. THEN I'LL GET RIGHT TO IT. BUT THE FIRST THING IS LIKE MAYBE A VERSION.
[00:26:54] THIS QUESTION IS IN A WORLD WITH
[00:26:56] A I WITH ALL THESE CHANGES THAT ARE HAPPENING, WHAT DO I VALUE
[00:27:00] MY CHILDREN LEARNING? WHAT DO I VALUE MY CHILDREN?
[00:27:04] PRIORITIZING OR VALUING?
[00:27:06] AND THAT WOULD BE AGENCY.
[00:27:08] YOU KNOW, IT'S NOT A SPECIFIC SKILL.
[00:27:11] IT'S NOT CAN YOU CODE, IT'S ACTUALLY HOW DO I CULTIVATE AGENCY IN YOU?
[00:27:15] A BELIEF THAT YOU CAN DO THESE THINGS, A BELIEF THAT YOU CAN CHANGE THE WORLD?
[00:27:19] I THINK THAT THE PEOPLE, THE
[00:27:22] HERETICS, ALL HAVE THIS IN SPADES. THINK ABOUT HOW CRAZY IT IS AT HYMAN RICKOVER, WHO BUILT THE
[00:27:25] NUCLEAR NAVY, ONE OF MY FAVORITE
[00:27:28] HERETICS, OPPENHEIMER TOLD HIM,
[00:27:30] THIS IS NOT GOING TO WORK. PUTTING A NUCLEAR REACTOR IN A
[00:27:34] SUBMARINE IS NOT GOING TO WORK. THINK ABOUT THE HOOD LIKE THE
[00:27:36] FRIEND, FATHER OF THE BOMB, ONE
[00:27:39] OF OUR GREATEST PHYSICISTS IN THE NATION IS TELLING YOU, WHO
[00:27:42] ARE YOU? SOME YOU KNOW, CAPTAIN IN THE
[00:27:46] NAVY AT THIS POINT THAT YOUR DREAM IS A FAILURE.
[00:27:49] AND HE JUST KEPT GOING. AND THAT WAS THAT WAS PROBABLY THE FIRST OF A THOUSAND
[00:27:52] HUMILIATIONS THAT HE HAD TO GO THROUGH. AND SO THIS IS A MAN WITH A
[00:27:56] TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF AGENCY.
[00:27:58] THE OTHER THING I'D SAY SO IF YOU REALLY WANT TO DO THIS, I
[00:28:01] MEAN, THE EPISTEMIC HUMILITY, WHICH I THINK IS A GOOD TOPIC IN
[00:28:04] THE PRESENT MOMENT, YOU HAVE TO
[00:28:08] MY MY ADVICE TO YOUNG PEOPLE WOULD BE TO TO RECOGNIZE THAT
[00:28:11] ALL THE VALUE YOU'RE GOING TO CREATE IN THE WORLD IS GOING TO COME FROM YOUR SUPERPOWER.
[00:28:14] THE JOURNEY YOU'RE ON AS A YOUNG PERSON IS FIGURE OUT WHAT IS THAT.
[00:28:18] YOU KNOW, IT'S GOING TO BE HARD TO FIGURE OUT. IT'S GOING TO BE HARD TO FIGURE
[00:28:21] OUT BECAUSE ACTUALLY THEY'RE GOING TO BE A SET OF THINGS YOU ACTUALLY ENJOY DOING THOSE
[00:28:24] THINGS YOU PROBABLY ENJOY BECAUSE THERE'S SOME EFFORT IN
[00:28:28] FIGURING IT OUT AND YOU GET A LITTLE DOPAMINE HIT WHEN YOU SOLVE THE PROBLEM.
[00:28:31] BUT BECAUSE ACTUALLY THAT DOPAMINE HIT BELIES THE FACT
[00:28:33] THAT IT'S PROBABLY NOT YOUR SUPERPOWER, IT ACTUALLY REQUIRED EFFORT. YOUR SUPERPOWER IS GOING TO BE
[00:28:38] SOMETHING THAT'S MORE LIZARD BRAIN.
[00:28:39] IT'S JUST INSTINCTIVELY OBVIOUS
[00:28:43] TO YOU AND YOU'RE GOING TO DISCOVER IT COMPARATIVELY. YOU'RE GOING TO LOOK AROUND TO
[00:28:46] OTHER PEOPLE WHO ARE AS TALENTED OR MORE TALENTED THAN YOU. YOU'RE GOING TO BE LIKE, OH,
[00:28:49] THEY STRUGGLE WITH THIS. AND THAT SUPERPOWER IS REALLY
[00:28:53] WHERE YOU HAVE TO FOCUS. BUT THERE'S A FLIPSIDE TO THE SUPERPOWER, WHICH IS YOUR KRYPTONITE.
[00:28:57] YOU KNOW, THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM THAT WE LIKED IT. AND I THINK IT'S ACTUALLY THE RIGHT WAY TO EDUCATE YOUNG
[00:29:01] PEOPLE, WHICH IS, YOU KNOW, WORK ON YOUR WEAKNESSES BECAUSE IT'S TOO EARLY TO CALL TO CALL IT,
[00:29:04] YOU KNOW, PREMATURE. BUT YOU KNOW WHAT?
[00:29:07] WE'RE SUPERMAN STRATEGY FOR DEALING WITH KRYPTONITE.
[00:29:12] NOTHING EXCEPT FOR AVOIDING IT.
[00:29:12] AND SO HAVING THE HUMILITY TO
[00:29:16] SAY LIKE, YOU KNOW, THERE ARE SOME THINGS I'M JUST SO BAD AT. I SHOULDN'T TOUCH. I NEED TO FIND PARTNERS AND I
[00:29:19] NEED TO WORK WITH OTHER PEOPLE WHO HAVE THESE SKILLS. AND RECOGNIZING THIS IS WHY I
[00:29:23] LIKE THE METAPHOR OF X-MEN MORE THAN SUPERMAN. SUPERMAN. IT SEEMS LIKE THE WHOLE THING IS
[00:29:27] JUST HIM. THE X-MEN WERE ALL HIGHLY IMPERFECT HUMANS IN THEIR OWN
[00:29:31] SORT OF WAY, AND THE THING KIND OF WORKED IN AGGREGATE AND THAT
[00:29:37] WOULD BE MY ADVICE TO THEM. A LITTLE OFF TOPIC, BUT SINCE,
[00:29:40] YOU KNOW, I THINK IT'S LOOK, I THINK THAT, YOU KNOW, YOUR YOUR
[00:29:44] BOOK IS REALLY ABOUT HOW TO HOW A NATION OF HERETICS CAN DIG
[00:29:48] ITSELF OUT OF THE HOLE. YEAH.
[00:29:50] AND SO TRYING TO HELP YOUNG PEOPLE FIGURE OUT HOW DO I JOIN
[00:29:54] THE DIGGING OUT TEAM RATHER THAN
[00:29:56] THE DIGGING IN TEAM IS VERY CENTRAL.
[00:30:00] YOU SAY DETERRENCE IS FAILED.
[00:30:03] YOU TALK ABOUT STOPPING WORLD WAR THREE. I THINK THAT'S WORTH GETTING
[00:30:06] INTO A BIT AS A CONCEPT. YEAH.
[00:30:08] YOU KNOW, HOPEFULLY FOR THIS AUDIENCE.
[00:30:11] BUT IT DOESN'T NEED TO BE SAID. BUT OF COURSE THAT THE ENTIRE
[00:30:15] OBJECTIVE OF THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR IS TO DETER CONFLICT.
[00:30:18] IT'S TO BE SO STRONG AND TO
[00:30:20] CREATE SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY OR A
[00:30:22] CERTAIN LOSS FOR THE ENEMY, THE ADVERSARY THAT THEY DO NOT EVEN
[00:30:26] CONTEMPLATE DOING THIS BECAUSE IT JUST IS OBVIOUS LOSER.
[00:30:30] AND YOU CAN THINK ABOUT THE THE DIMENSIONS IN WHICH EVERYTHING I
[00:30:32] CITED THERE SHOWS YOU THAT THERE'S NOT ENOUGH FEAR.
[00:30:36] ONE CLEAR ELEMENT OF THIS IS OUR
[00:30:40] ABILITY TO PRODUCE THINGS. YOU KNOW, IF YOU THOUGHT ABOUT A
[00:30:42] CHINA FIGHT, PEOPLE ESTIMATE WE MAYBE HAVE EIGHT DAYS OF WEAPONS
[00:30:46] ON HAND. WELL, WHAT WHAT THEY ARE WE IN THE IRAN CONFLICT, YOU KNOW, YOU
[00:30:49] NEED TO HAVE 800 DAYS OF WEAPONS ON HAND, NOT ONLY DO YOU NEED
[00:30:53] HAVE 800 DAYS WEAPONS ON HAND, YOU CAN YOU HAVE ABILITY TO REGENERATE THOSE 800 DAYS OF
[00:30:56] WEAPONS INSIDE AN ENVELOPE OF EXECUTION. THAT MEANS YOU CAN SUSTAIN
[00:31:00] DETERRENCE. AND I THINK WE JUST GOT A LOT OF THE MATH WRONG.
[00:31:03] WE KIND OF BECAME BEAN COUNTERS. WE SAID LIKE, WELL, WE'RE NOT USING THESE WEAPONS.
[00:31:06] YOU KNOW, MAYBE WE SHOULDN'T BE PRODUCING THEM. HOW DO WE JUST SUSTAIN
[00:31:10] EVERYTHING AT THE MINIMUM RATE OF PRODUCTION?
[00:31:12] AND ALL OF THIS SCREWS OVER THE
[00:31:14] THE CONCEPT THAT INNOVATION IS A
[00:31:17] CONSEQUENCE OF PRODUCTIVITY.
[00:31:19] THE ANALOGY IS, I DIDN'T DO THIS EARLIER, BUT I THINK IT'S WORTH
[00:31:22] SHARING IS GREAT FOR DUTY, FOR A TECH CROWD IS LIKE THE WAY I COMMUNICATE THIS INNOVATION IS THE CONSEQUENCE OF PRODUCTIVITY
[00:31:27] TO TO FOLKS IN SILICON VALLEY IS
[00:31:30] WHAT DO YOU THINK MOTIVATED THE
[00:31:32] GOOGLE RESEARCHERS IN 2017 TO WRITE THE ATTENTION IS ALL YOU NEED. PAPER THAT LED TO THE
[00:31:36] TRANSFORMER REVOLUTION AND THE CURRENT A.I. IT WAS IT WAS A
[00:31:40] DESIRE TO GET A 3% INCREMENT, LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE PERFORMANCE OF GOOGLE TRANSLATE.
[00:31:44] YOU CANNOT THINK OF A MORE BANAL
[00:31:48] IMPETUS LEADING TO A MORE PROFOUND CHANGE. BUT I THINK ACTUALLY A LOT OF
[00:31:51] PROFOUND CHANGES START WITH A BANAL IMPETUS.
[00:31:56] OKAY, WHAT WE SEE THIS BACKLASH
[00:32:01] ON AGAINST TECH, AGAINST AI AND
[00:32:05] IT SEEMS TO BE FIND IT ON THE LEFT. YOU FIND IT ON THE RIGHT, YOU
[00:32:07] FIND IT AMONG CULTURAL CONSERVATIVES, YOU FIND IT AMONG
[00:32:11] LIBERALS. YOU THINK THIS IS PROFOUNDLY
[00:32:15] MISTAKEN. AND YOU ARGUE VERY STRONGLY THAT IT IS.
[00:32:18] WHY ARE THESE PEOPLE WRONG AND
[00:32:20] WHY ACTUALLY DO WE NEED A I?
[00:32:23] WHY WILL I HELP THE AVERAGE PERSON? WELL, I THINK THE AMERICAN
[00:32:26] PEOPLE ARE BEING LIED TO ABOUT A.I. PART OF IT, IT STARTS WITH WHO ARE THEY LISTENING TO, WHO'S OUT
[00:32:30] THERE AND SAYING THIS STUFF? IT'S THE INVENTORS, NOT THE
[00:32:32] WIELDERS, THE INVENTORS. FIRST OF ALL, DO YOU HAVE KIND
[00:32:35] OF A RELIGIOUS AND THAT'S THE RIGHT WORD CONVICTION THAT THEY
[00:32:38] ARE BUILDING A GOD, THAT THAT'S WHAT AGI IS TO THEM.
[00:32:42] AND SO, YOU KNOW THAT THE PASCAL SHAPED PASCAL WAS EITHER GOD
[00:32:45] SHAPED HOLE IN THEIR HEART IS BEING FILLED WITH THIS AND THAT
[00:32:48] LEADS TO A SERIES OF CONCLUSIONS THAT I THINK ARE FAITH BASED.
[00:32:51] THERE'S ACTUALLY NO EMPIRICAL BASIS TO SAY THESE THINGS. BUT IF YOU HAVE THIS AS A GOD,
[00:32:56] THEN YOU BELIEVE IT WILL LEAD TO 50% WHITE COLLAR JOB LOSS INSIDE
[00:32:59] OF A YEAR OR SO. BUT, YOU KNOW, THESE PEOPLE SEEM SO SMART, SO PEOPLE ARE
[00:33:03] LISTENING ON THE OTHER END, THEN YOU HAVE WHAT IS THE EMPIRICAL
[00:33:07] EXPERIENCE FOR MOST MOST AMERICANS WITH AI, IT'S MOSTLY I
[00:33:11] SLOP, YOU KNOW, OR SOME VERSION OF GAMBLING.
[00:33:13] SO ON ONE HAND, THESE PEOPLE ARE SAYING IT'S GOING TO END
[00:33:17] HUMANITY OR CERTAINLY MAKE MAKE OUR IMPOVERISH US. AND ON THE OTHER END, YOU CAN'T
[00:33:21] SEE ANYTHING BUT VICE IN TERMS OF ITS APPLICATION AND IN YOUR CONSUMER LIFE.
[00:33:26] SO THIS IS THIS IS SUPER DEPRESSING AND THEN YOU START WONDERING, YOU KNOW, ISN'T THE
[00:33:30] ISN'T THIS THE PRECONDITION FOR SOMETHING LIKE THE FRENCH REVOLUTION, LIKE, WHY WOULD
[00:33:33] RATIONAL HUMANS JUST SAY, I'M JUST GOING TO SIT HERE AND LET THIS HAPPEN?
[00:33:36] AND I THINK THE REACTION IS THEY'RE NOT THEY'RE NOT GOING TO SIT HERE AND GET THIS HAPPEN.
[00:33:40] AND WHAT I WANT TO MAKE THE CASE IS THE CASE THAT I SEE EVERY DAY
[00:33:43] OUT ON THE FRONT LINES FROM THE FACTORY FLOOR TO THE THE ICU
[00:33:47] BEDS IS LIKE ACTUALLY THIS IS HAVING A PROFOUND IMPACT ON THE
[00:33:51] PRODUCTIVITY OF PEOPLE. IT IS IMPROVING THEIR JOBS AND IT'S CREATING BENEFIT FOR THE
[00:33:55] AMERICAN PEOPLE. AND I THINK WE THEN NEED A NORMATIVE VIEW ON TOP OF THAT,
[00:33:58] WHICH IS THAT THE AMERICAN
[00:34:00] WORKER DESERVES A PRODUCTIVITY DIVIDEND THROUGH THE APPLICATION
[00:34:04] OF BY, YOU KNOW, ROUGHLY IN THE 70S, THERE WAS A PROFOUND BREAK
[00:34:07] BETWEEN WAGE GROWTH AND GDP GROWTH.
[00:34:10] WAGE GROWTH STAGNATED A IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO REESTABLISH THAT
[00:34:14] LINKAGE THAT AS PRODUCTIVITY IS REALIZED, WE NEED TO MAKE SURE
[00:34:16] AS A SOCIETY THAT PRODUCTIVITY BENEFITS THE WORKER, IT MUST
[00:34:20] RESULT IN WAGE GROWTH.
[00:34:22] SO THAT'S YOU KNOW, IT WOULD BE
[00:34:25] A TRAVESTY TO LOSE THIS THIS
[00:34:29] ALMOST DEUS EX MACHINA LIKE
[00:34:31] ADVANTAGE THAT IS AN AMERICAN PHENOMENON. YOU KNOW, YOU PEOPLE LOOK AND
[00:34:35] THEY SEE THE CHINESE HAVE THESE MODELS, THOSE MODELS WERE ESSENTIALLY STOLEN THROUGH
[00:34:39] DISTILLATION. IT IS NOT A CHINA. IT'S NOT. IT'S NOT. IT IS SOMETHING THAT CAME OUT OF
[00:34:43] A 50 MILE RADIUS OF THE BAY AREA
[00:34:46] THAT IS AN AMERICAN PHENOMENON AND THAT WE THAT WE SHOULD NOT
[00:34:49] TURN OUR BACK ON. AND A LOT OF WHAT YOU'RE SAYING
[00:34:54] IS THAT AMERICA HAS A COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, NOT JUST IN THE DEVELOPMENT, BUT IN THE
[00:34:59] IMPLEMENTS, ASIAN USE AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF AI OVER OTHER COUNTRIES.
[00:35:04] WHAT'S THE SOURCE OF THAT ADVANTAGE AND HOW IMPORTANT IS
[00:35:08] IT? THE ADVANTAGE IS DETERMINATIVE AND I THINK THERE'S REALLY TWO
[00:35:11] PIECES OF IT AS IT RELATES TO. THE FIRST IS JUST A PROFOUND CULTURE.
[00:35:15] ALL CURRENT OF AMERICA. YOU KNOW, IT'S LIKE THE POPULAR
[00:35:19] NARRATIVE IS SOMETHING LIKE, YOU
[00:35:21] KNOW, THE SILICON VALLEY CULTURE COMES FROM THE GOLD RUSH.
[00:35:24] THIS SORT OF FRONTIER SPIRIT OF SO OF CALIFORNIA.
[00:35:28] I DON'T THINK THAT'S RIGHT. ACTUALLY, THE MODERN SILICON VALLEY CULTURE THAT'S LED TO ALL
[00:35:30] THIS CREATION, IT CAME FROM IOWA, CAME FROM BOB NOYCE.
[00:35:35] THE INVENTOR OF THE TRANSISTOR, CO-FOUNDER OF INTEL.
[00:35:39] YOU KNOW, NOYCE IS LITERALLY THE GUY WHO CAME UP WITH THE TERM OPEN DOOR POLICY.
[00:35:43] AND AND IT'S ROOTED IN
[00:35:45] MIDWESTERN VALUES AROUND PLAYING POSITIVE.
[00:35:48] SOME GAMES OPEN COMMUNICATION, TRANSPARENCY AND ABILITY TO
[00:35:52] SUSTAIN THOSE POSITIVE. SOME GAMES OVER LONG PERIODS OF TIME.
[00:35:55] NOYCE WAS THE FIRST EMPLOYER IN SILICON VALLEY WHO GAVE EVEN HIS
[00:35:58] SECRETARY EQUITY. YOU KNOW, THERE'S THERE'S A LOT
[00:36:01] IN THAT SORT OF THAT SORT OF
[00:36:04] IDEAL, THIS SORT OF VALUE SYSTEM. NOW, YOU COULD YOU COULD SAY,
[00:36:08] LOOK, ISN'T IT KIND OF WEIRD THAT THERE ARE ZERO INDIAN OR
[00:36:11] CHINESE ENTERPRISE SOFTWARE COMPANIES THAT ARE COMPETITIVE ON THE WORLD STAGE?
[00:36:15] THOSE CULTURES DO SOFTWARE, BUT THEY DON'T DO SOFTWARE
[00:36:18] COMPANIES. AND SO THAT IS NOT A TECHNICAL SKILL.
[00:36:21] IT IS A CULTURAL CAPABILITY THAT I THINK IS UNIQUELY PRESENT IN
[00:36:25] AMERICA. THE SECOND PART OF AI IS THAT
[00:36:28] THAT IS PROBABLY MORE UNIQUE IN OUR ABILITY.
[00:36:31] IT IS AMBITION IN THE COMPANIES
[00:36:35] THAT ARE SUCCEEDING. AND I THINK THE MILITARY IS THE ULTIMATE EXPRESSION OF THIS. BUT THE COMPANIES THAT ARE
[00:36:39] SUCCEEDING IN ADOPTING AI, THEY DON'T HAVE LANE GOALS LIKE, HEY, I WANT TO BE MORE EFFICIENT.
[00:36:43] I'VE NEVER HAD A CUSTOMER COME TO ME SAY LIKE, I WANT TO FIRE THESE PEOPLE.
[00:36:46] THEY SAY, I WANT TO DOMINATE MY INDUSTRY.
[00:36:48] I WANT TO REWRITE THE RULES OF THIS SEGMENT.
[00:36:51] THERE'S THERE'S THERE'S AMBITION. I THINK THAT SORT OF AMBITION IS
[00:36:55] UNIQUELY AMERICAN. THAT IS, IT IS MANIFEST DESTINY THROUGH ANOTHER MEANS ALTOGETHER.
[00:36:58] AND THEN THE CAPITALIST CONTEXT. AND I THINK IF YOU GO TO A LOT OF OTHER COUNTRIES, THE AMBITION
[00:37:02] IS MUCH MORE INCREMENTAL. IT'S LACKING. IT'S LIKE, HEY, I JUST WANT TO
[00:37:06] DO SOMETHING SAFE AND I THINK THAT'S IS EXPLAINING A LOT OF
[00:37:09] THE GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITY THAT
[00:37:12] WE HAVE RIGHT NOW AND WHY I'M SO OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL SUCCEED
[00:37:14] IN RE INDUSTRIALIZATION. WHEN YOU LOOK AT CHINESE TECH
[00:37:18] COMPANIES AND CHINESE TECH
[00:37:20] CAPABILITIES, THESE WHERE DO YOU
[00:37:23] SEE GAINS THAT WE REALLY NEED TO
[00:37:25] WORRY ABOUT GAINS WHERE THEY
[00:37:27] MIGHT BE CHALLENGING THIS EDGE THAT WE HAVE AND WHERE DO YOU
[00:37:30] SEE SORT OF AN ENDURING SOURCE OF STRENGTH THAT THAT MAYBE
[00:37:34] GIVES MAKES YOU OPTIMISTIC THAT WILL WIN? YEAH.
[00:37:38] WELL, DON'T UNDERESTIMATE THE CHINESE. LIKE ONE OF ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE TALK ABOUT IN THE BOOK
[00:37:42] IS I DON'T LIKE THE TERM NEAR PURE.
[00:37:45] IT COMPLETELY LETS US OFF THE HOOK. IT'S IT'S KIND OF A SHIBBOLETH.
[00:37:49] WE GET TO PRETEND LIKE, OH, WE'RE STILL IN THE LEAD. AND YES, YOU'VE ALREADY HEARD MY
[00:37:52] OPINION THAT WE ARE THE BEST MILITARY IN THE WORLD THAT I THINK THAT'S A TRUE STATEMENT.
[00:37:56] BUT I THINK WE WOULD BE BETTER OFF THINKING OF THE CHINESE AS A PURE ADVERSARY.
[00:37:59] AND THEY ARE VERY GOOD AT FAST FOLLOWING, BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN
[00:38:03] THEY'RE NOT GOOD TO INNOVATION BECAUSE OF EVERYTHING I JUST TALKED ABOUT, WHICH IS THAT INNOVATION IS A CONSEQUENCE OF
[00:38:08] PRODUCTIVITY. SO NOW, WITHOUT HAVING TO SPEND THE TIME AND CAPITAL TO GET TO
[00:38:11] WHERE WE ARE, THEY'RE ABLE TO GET THERE VERY QUICKLY THROUGH
[00:38:13] OTHER MEANS. WE'LL LEAVE THAT UNSAID AND THEN ATTEMPT THAT CREATES MORE
[00:38:19] DILEMMAS FOR US. IT REDUCES THE GAP OR INCREASES HOW MUCH WE HAVE TO SPEND IN R&D
[00:38:23] INCREASES THE THE CALORIES WE HAVE TO SPEND IN TRYING TO STAY AHEAD.
[00:38:26] AND THEN THERE ARE, YOU KNOW,
[00:38:28] MOST NECESSITIES. THE MOTHER OF INVENTION, WHEN
[00:38:31] YOU LOOK AT SOMETHING LIKE DEEP SEA, EVEN THOUGH IT IS THE RESULT OF DISTILLATION BECAUSE
[00:38:35] THEY HAVE INFERIOR GPUS, THEY HAD TO DO ALL SORTS OF LEGITIMATELY CLEVER
[00:38:39] OPTIMIZATION. ALL RIGHT.
[00:38:41] AND SO THE STIMULUS WE'RE CREATING FOR THEM IS ALSO GOING
[00:38:44] TO CAUSE THEM TO INNOVATE IN OTHER WAYS THAT POSE CHALLENGES FOR US.
[00:38:48] NOW, I DON'T THINK WE SHOULD REDUCE THOSE STIMULUSES. SO LIKE, I THINK THAT WOULD ALSO
[00:38:51] THAT'S A DIFFERENT FORM OF SUICIDE, BUT IT WILL HAVE CONSEQUENCES.
[00:38:56] YEAH. CAN WE IN SOME WAY? OKAY. YOU SEE SOMETHING LIKE DEEP SEA
[00:38:59] COMES OUT AND. ALL RIGHT, THERE'S CLEVER OPTIMIZATIONS AND SO ON.
[00:39:03] CAN WE THEN FEED THAT BACK INTO HOW WE WORK?
[00:39:05] YEAH, ABSOLUTELY. IF YOU'RE GOING TO FASTBALL LOW, WE SHOULD DO. YEAH.
[00:39:09] AND PEOPLE ARE DOING THAT. PEOPLE ARE DOING THAT.
[00:39:12] WHAT WHAT WOULD YOU SAY? YOU KNOW, YOU THINK ABOUT YOU
[00:39:15] TALK ABOUT THE NEED TO REALLY,
[00:39:18] YOU KNOW, SURGE IN PROCUREMENT
[00:39:21] AND SO ON IN ORDER TO GET THE VOLUME THAT WILL REALLY CAUSE THE INNOVATION, THE
[00:39:26] TRANSFORMATION THAT'S NEEDED. WHAT KIND OF SURGE IN THE DEFENSE BUDGET DO YOU THINK IS NEEDED?
[00:39:31] IS IT AN OVERALL SURGE? IS IT A REALLOCATION OF EXISTING FUNDS?
[00:39:35] HOW SHOULD WE BE THINKING ABOUT THIS? I THINK THE I THINK THE PRESIDENT IS THINKING ABOUT THIS
[00:39:39] CORRECTLY. SO HERE'S A PLACE THAT I THINK I HAVE BEEN WRONG OVER THE LAST LITTLE BIT.
[00:39:43] I'VE SAID WE DON'T NEED MORE MONEY. MAYBE WE ACTUALLY NEED LESS MONEY. YEAH.
[00:39:47] AND I THINK THERE'S SOME TRUTH TO THAT. IF YOU HAD SOME SORT OF MAGICAL
[00:39:50] WAND TO ELIMINATE HUMAN FEELING AND EMOTION AND COULD JUST
[00:39:55] REALLOCATE THE MONEY, BUT THAT'S NOT REALITY. AND I THINK GOING BACK TO THIS
[00:39:59] EXAMPLE OF, HEY, WE NEEDED TO BUILD 154 AIRFRAMES TO GET THE TEN THAT WE NEEDED.
[00:40:03] THERE. THIS BOLUS IN SURGE, ACTUALLY YOU NEED MORE CHAOS, YOU NEED
[00:40:07] MORE INVESTMENT, MAYBE EVEN OVER INVESTMENT TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO
[00:40:10] GET THE THINGS TO WORK THEY NEED TO WORK. THAT GIVES YOU THE OPPORTUNITY TO PARE BACK IN THE FUTURE.
[00:40:14] RIGHT. AND SO I THINK, YOU KNOW, THE
[00:40:17] 1.5 TRILLION TOP LINE IS ROUGHLY LIKE RIGHT. THE THING THAT WE ALSO NEED IS LESS TIME.
[00:40:21] WE NEED TO GIVE OURSELVES LESS TIME TO DELIVER OUT OUTCOMES
[00:40:25] THAT THAT IS OFTEN, YOU KNOW,
[00:40:27] WHY WOULD YOU TOLERATE SOMEONE AS DIFFICULT?
[00:40:30] WE FIRED EDWARD HALL ONCE BEFORE BRINGING HIM BEFORE SCHREIBER BROUGHT HIM BACK TO FINISH UP
[00:40:34] THE MINUTEMAN. WHY WOULD YOU TOLERATE SOMEONE WHO IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT?
[00:40:37] EDWARD HALL, IF YOU WEREN'T STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF THE SOVIETS GETTING TO AN ICBM
[00:40:40] BEFORE YOU WITH MORE CAPABILITY, IT'S, YOU KNOW, SOMEHOW WE HAVE
[00:40:45] BEEN BECOME INURED TO SOME OF THESE FACTS, WHICH IS WHY I THINK THE PURE ADVERSARY
[00:40:48] COMMENTS IMPORTANT. YOU KNOW, I THOUGH OVER THE LAST
[00:40:51] PROBABLY FOUR YEARS, WE SHOULD HAVE HAD FOUR DIFFERENT SPUTNIK MOMENTS. WELL, WE'VE HAD NONE.
[00:40:55] YOU KNOW, EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE LEGITIMATELY SPUTNIK MOMENTS. AND SO HOW IS IT THE SPUTNIK
[00:41:00] MOMENT CATALYZED SUCH CLARITY IN
[00:41:02] THE MIND OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE? AND WE'VE HAD FOR THAT WE CAN'T
[00:41:06] SEEM TO GRIP WHAT ARE THE FOUR
[00:41:09] CHINESE HYPERSONIC GLIDE VEHICLE
[00:41:11] THE ABILITY FOR THE RUSSIANS TO
[00:41:14] SUSTAIN THE FIGHT AS LONG AS THEY'VE HAD HERE?
[00:41:19] THE ASYMMETRIC ABILITY FOR
[00:41:23] PEOPLE LIKE THE HOUTHIES TO HOLD. SO MUCH OF NOT ONLY WORLD TRADE,
[00:41:26] BUT OUR ASSETS AT RISK AND THEN
[00:41:31] THE YOU KNOW, THE TEN YEARS OF
[00:41:35] CONSUMPTION IN TEN WEEKS THAT EFFECTIVELY WE'VE GOTTEN THE
[00:41:37] MATH COMPLETELY WRONG. THAT HAS A LOT OF IMPLICATIONS. I GET AN EXAMPLE OF THIS STUFF
[00:41:42] IS AND TO THE POINT THAT WE MAY NOT BE SPENDING ENOUGH, IF YOU'RE GOING TO MAKE MUNITIONS,
[00:41:45] WE SHOULD BE TREATING ALL OF THESE MUSICIANS WITH THAT POTENTIALLY EVEN OUR EXQUISITE
[00:41:49] MUNITIONS AS CONSUMABLES.
[00:41:50] THEY'RE NOT PIECES OF ART THAT YOU PUT ON THE SHELF AND YOU MAKE SURE AND TEMPERATURE
[00:41:55] CONTROLLED SETTINGS YOU MAKE IT AT THE POINT OF MAKING IT.
[00:41:58] YOU ALREADY HAVE A PLAN OF HOW YOU'RE GOING TO CONSUME IT AND TEST.
[00:42:01] AND THAT MEANS THAT YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE ANOTHER ONE TO REPLACE IT, WHICH DRIVES THE
[00:42:05] STIMULUS, THE INDUSTRY TO KEEP GOING AND AN OPPORTUNITY TO
[00:42:07] DRIVE COMPETITION.
[00:42:09] AND NEW ENTRANTS HAVE SOME SORT
[00:42:11] OF FOOTING TO GO GET WORK AND
[00:42:13] THIS IS WHERE YOU THIS PART OF
[00:42:15] IT IS A CONSEQUENCE, OKAY? IF YOU'RE GOING TO BE A
[00:42:19] MONOPSONY, WHICH IS REALITY, THIS IS WHERE YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE TO ADAPT TO IN ORDER TO OVERCOME THE PATHOLOGIES THAT
[00:42:23] ARE THAT COME FROM BEING A MONOPSONY. SO YOU REALLY TALKING ABOUT A
[00:42:26] SPATE OF SPENDING THAT IS JUST SO GREAT THAT IT KIND OF WASHES
[00:42:30] AWAY A LOT OF THESE OBSTACLES AND FORCES A NEW LOOK.
[00:42:33] NOW I KNOW I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY
[00:42:36] BUDGET HAWKS WE HAVE AT HUDSON, BUT I KNOW PLENTY OF BUDGET AND
[00:42:39] DEFICIT HAWKS OUT THERE WHO ARE PROBABLY GETTING GREAT
[00:42:43] INDIGESTION AT THIS MOMENT AND WOULD SAY, YOU KNOW, WE CAN'T DO
[00:42:47] IT OR WE SHOULDN'T DO THAT KIND OF SPENDING. WHAT'S YOUR RESPONSE?
[00:42:51] WELL, I SHARE THOSE CONCERNS. I'M ACTUALLY VERY FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE, AND I WOULD
[00:42:55] STRONGLY PREFER A BALANCED BUDGET. AND I WOULD LIKE TO WORK THESE THINGS OUT.
[00:42:58] BUT I THINK WE'RE STUCK BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE THAT
[00:43:00] THAT THE REALITY IS THAT, YOU
[00:43:02] KNOW, ARE DEFICIT DOESN'T REALLY MATTER IF WE DON'T HAVE A
[00:43:06] COUNTRY. AND SO WE'VE GOT TO SOLVE THAT PROBLEM FIRST AND THEN WE'RE
[00:43:10] GOING HAVE TO FIGURE OUT THESE OTHER PIECES AS WE GO ALONG. OKAY.
[00:43:14] NOW, I THINK ANOTHER ARGUMENT WE MAKE IN THE BOOK THAT IS IMPORTANT IS LIKE WE'VE LOST THE
[00:43:17] PLOT ON HOW NATIONAL SECURITY IS
[00:43:20] THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN OF PROSPERITY AND THAT YOU NEED TO
[00:43:24] GET THESE THINGS TO WORK TOGETHER.
[00:43:26] IF YOU THINK ABOUT FAIRCHILD AND
[00:43:28] I THINK IN 68, 69, 96% OF ALL
[00:43:31] THE INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, THEY PRODUCED WENT TO APOLLO. THERE WAS ONE CUSTOMER IN THE
[00:43:35] ENTIRE WORLD FOR AN INTEGRATED CIRCUIT, AND IT WAS THE MISSION TO THE MOON.
[00:43:41] BUT NOYCE, WHO WAS AT FAIRCHILD AT THE TIME, WOULD NOT LET THE
[00:43:43] AIR FORCE PM TELL HIM WHAT TO DO
[00:43:47] IN TERMS OF R&D. I INVENTED THE TRANSISTOR, WAS HIS RETORT.
[00:43:51] LIKE, WHO ARE YOU TO TELL ME WHAT I SHOULD BE INVESTING MY R&D? AND HE NEVER TOOK MORE THAN 4%
[00:43:55] OF HIS R&D BUDGET FROM THE GOVERNMENT SO THAT HE COULD BE
[00:43:59] IN CONTROL OF IT. HE DIDN'T HAVE TO LISTEN TO ANYONE ELSE. THIS WAS CRITICAL, NOT ONLY TO
[00:44:03] THE FUTURE PROSPERITY OF AMERICA, THE ABILITY FOR US TO
[00:44:06] BUILD THE MICROCHIP INDUSTRY, BUT ALSO IN RETURN BACK TO THE
[00:44:11] GOVERNMENT. SO AS THINKER ONE, WHICH WAS OUR ANSWER TO THE VAST SOVIET
[00:44:15] QUANTITIES AMMUNITION PRODUCE, THE SOVIETS MADE SO MANY MUNITIONS, OUR THING WAS LIKE, WE'RE NOT GOING TO COMPETE WITH
[00:44:20] THEM ON QUANTITY. WE'RE GOING TO BE ON QUALITY. WE'RE GOING TO INVENT PRECISION, PRECISION GUIDED MUNITIONS.
[00:44:23] WE HAVE MANY FEWER IMMEDIATE MISSIONS, BUT THEY'RE ACTUALLY GOING TO GO WHERE THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO GO.
[00:44:26] PEOPLE FORGET THAT IN WORLD WAR TWO, ONLY 6% OF BOMBS DROPPED. ACTUALLY HIT THEIR INTENDED
[00:44:31] TARGET. YOU KNOW, IN THE PREP FIRES FOR NORMANDY, WE KILLED ROUGHLY 50,000 FRENCH CIVILIANS.
[00:44:34] YOU KNOW, THAT'S HOW IMPRECISE THESE THINGS WERE. WELL, THAT COST PERFORMANCE WAS
[00:44:38] ONLY POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF MOORE'S
[00:44:40] LAW FROM THIS FROM THE 60S TO THE 80S MEANT THAT WE COULD PUT
[00:44:43] THESE MICROPROCESSOR LASERS AND LITERALLY EVERY MUNITION WE EVER BUILT.
[00:44:47] AND THAT GAVE US, YOU KNOW, A LOT OF NATIONAL SECURITY.
[00:44:51] NOW, WE COULD ALSO LOOK AT THE INVERSE WHERE WE HAVE TOTALLY CEDED THE LEAD.
[00:44:55] WE INVENTED THE DRONE, THE PREDATOR WAS THAT THAT'S REALLY
[00:44:58] AN AMERICAN SCALED INVENTION.
[00:45:02] BUT WE GOT IN OUR OWN WAY, WE WE
[00:45:05] VIEWED THE DRONE AS AN ITEM. WE'D SAY THIS IS A FLYING MISSILE.
[00:45:09] AND THEN THE FAA DOMESTICALLY SAID, NO, NO TO BEYOND LINE OF
[00:45:12] SIGHT OPERATIONS. SO YOU BASICALLY KILLED ANY
[00:45:16] COMMERCIAL UTILITY OUT OF THIS INVENTION OUT THE GATE.
[00:45:18] BUT OF COURSE, IF YOU HAD COMMERCIAL UTILITY, DJI WOULD
[00:45:22] NOT EXIST. DJI WOULD BE AN AMERICAN COMPANY. IT MIGHT BE A SUBSIDIARY OF
[00:45:25] GENERAL ATOMICS, IT MIGHT BE SOMETHING THEY SPUN OUT ALTOGETHER. ALL THAT PROSPERITY WOULD BE HERE.
[00:45:29] AND IN RETURN FOR THAT PROSPERITY, THE PRICE PERFORMANCE THAT WE NOW STRUGGLE
[00:45:33] TO GET OUT OF OUR DRONE INDUSTRY WOULD BE AN AMERICAN PHENOMENON
[00:45:35] THAT THE MILITARY COULD BENEFIT FROM. WE'VE TALKED ABOUT AND I WANT TO
[00:45:40] TURN IT OVER TO THE AUDIENCE FOR A FEW QUESTIONS AT THE END.
[00:45:42] BUT WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THIS
[00:45:44] 10,000 DRONE TARGET FOR TAIWAN.
[00:45:46] I GUESS, HOW CLOSE ARE WE?
[00:45:49] ARE WE TO REACHING IT?
[00:45:51] AND WHAT, IF ANYTHING, ELSE, DO WE NEED TO DO TO GET THERE AND
[00:45:54] WHEN DO WE GET THERE? WELL, I HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
[00:45:57] THAT THE PRESENT TEAM IS GOING TO GET THERE. I WOULD VIEW THE 10,000 DRONE
[00:46:00] TARGET AS A STARTING POINT. RIGHT. YOU THINK ABOUT THE UKRAINIAN
[00:46:04] PRODUCTION THIS YEAR IS GOING TO BE 6 MILLION DRONES.
[00:46:07] SO LET'S PUT STRUGGLING FOR 10,000, HOPEFULLY FOR NOT MUCH LONGER.
[00:46:11] YOU KNOW, I THINK A BOLUS OF ENERGY INVESTMENT TO THE POINT
[00:46:15] OF THERE IS NO PROCESS. ONLY PEOPLE. I THINK WE HAVE THE RIGHT PEOPLE
[00:46:18] DRIVING THIS THING NOW. AND I'M VERY OPTIMISTIC THAT
[00:46:21] WE'RE GOING TO GET THERE NOW. AND THIS IS BIG A BIG PART OF
[00:46:24] MAYBE THE AMERICAN PHENOMENON IS, YOU KNOW, WE TEND TO GET OUR
[00:46:27] -- KICKED IN THE FIRST, THIRD OR FIRST HALF BEFORE WE GET OUR STUFF TOGETHER AND THEY START
[00:46:30] WINNING AND I THINK WE'RE IN THE WE'RE ABOUT TO START WINNING PHASE OF THIS.
[00:46:34] WELL, GREAT. ON THAT NOTE, I THINK THIS IS A
[00:46:37] GREAT MOMENT TO TURN IT OVER TO THE AUDIENCE.
[00:46:39] PLEASE IDENTIFY FOR YOURSELF. AND REMEMBER, YOU'RE GOING TO
[00:46:43] ASK A QUESTION WHICH IS A SHORT,
[00:46:45] SHORT INTERROGATIVE OF SENTENCE,
[00:46:48] ENDING WITH A QUESTION MARK. YES, SIR.
[00:46:51] WE HAVE A MICROPHONE HERE. HELLO.
[00:46:57] AND AND CAN YOU FILL ME IS TO BE
[00:46:59] WITH NIKITA VERY EXCITED TO JOIN
[00:47:01] HUDSON FROM NEXT MONTH. I WAS VERY INTERESTED IN HOW YOU
[00:47:05] SAID THAT NOTHING HAS RESTORED
[00:47:07] DETERRENCE AS MUCH AS THE THEY'D HAVE.
[00:47:09] AND THE MADURO OPERATION. I WANTED TO COMPARE THAT WITH
[00:47:13] THE WITHDRAWAL FROM AFGHANISTAN,
[00:47:15] WHICH I THINK HURT AMERICAN DETERRENCE.
[00:47:17] BUT THE WHOLE IDEA OF THE
[00:47:19] AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL WAS TO
[00:47:22] SAVE AMERICAN ASSETS AND
[00:47:24] MUNITION FOR THE CHAIN OF FIGHT.
[00:47:26] DO YOU BELIEVE AT THIS STAGE IT
[00:47:30] IS MORE IMPORTANT FOR AMERICA TO FINISH THE JOB IN IRAN FOR
[00:47:33] DETERRENCE RATHER THAN SAVE THE MUNITIONS FOR A FUTURE?
[00:47:37] FIND A CHAIN FIGHT? WELL, I THINK NO MATTER WHAT, EVEN EVEN IT.
[00:47:41] SO YOU CAN SAY IRAN IS A PROXIMATE CAUSE, BUT IT JUST
[00:47:44] ILLUSTRATES REALLY THE ROT OVER THE LAST 30, 40 YEARS THAT WE
[00:47:47] HAVE BEEN UNDER PRODUCING MUNITIONS.
[00:47:49] AND BY NOT EXPANDING THEM, WE WERE ABLE TO TELL OURSELVES A
[00:47:53] LIE THAT THAT WASN'T THE CASE. BUT NOW WE'RE CONFRONTED THE
[00:47:57] CONSEQUENCES OF A LACK OF DETERRENCE HAVE MEANT LIKE, WELL, YEAH, IT DOESN'T MAKE
[00:48:00] SENSE TO SHOOT DOWN A $2,000 HOUTHI DRONE WITH A $2 MILLION
[00:48:04] MISSILE, AND YOU ONLY HAVE TO DO THAT SO LONG BEFORE YOU REALIZE THERE'S A PROBLEM.
[00:48:08] BUT I THINK THE PRESENT MOMENT, YOU NEED THAT ON STEROIDS. YOU NEED IT.
[00:48:12] YOU NEED A SCALE TO CONFRONT THE ISSUE AT A SCALE THAT GETS YOU
[00:48:15] TO FIRE UP THE THE FORGES OF THE ARSENAL OF FREEDOM, WHICH WE'RE
[00:48:19] CLEARLY AT THAT POINT. I THINK I WOULD AGREE WITH THE
[00:48:23] ASSESSMENT. FIRST OF ALL, THE DETERRENCE FROM MADURO AND MIDNIGHT HAMMER IS TWOFOLD.
[00:48:26] THE RUSSIAN AND CHINESE EQUIPMENT DIDN'T REALLY WORK. SO IF YOU'RE A THIRD PARTY COUNTRY SITTING THERE THINKING,
[00:48:30] HEY, I JUST BOUGHT ALL THIS KIT --.
[00:48:33] AND THEN YOU ALSO HAVE THE FACT
[00:48:36] THAT IT'S NOT LIKE THE CHINESE REALLY CAME TO, YOU KNOW, WHAT
[00:48:38] IS MADURO THINK ABOUT HIS ALLIANCE WITH THE CHINESE RIGHT NOW? THEY DID NOTHING TO HELP HIM.
[00:48:42] SO, YOU KNOW, IT CHANGES. IT MAKES VERY REAL.
[00:48:45] THE CALCULUS FOR THESE COUNTRIES. AND THE OTHER PART OF IT IS IT
[00:48:48] REMINDS THE WORLD OF WHAT I SAID EARLIER, WHICH IS WE REALLY ARE THE GREATEST MILITARY BY A LOT
[00:48:52] WE HAVE. IT'S NOT JUST RAW CAPABILITY,
[00:48:55] IT'S KNOWHOW. IT'S AN ABILITY TO FIGHT.
[00:48:57] IT'S THE TRADECRAFT BEHIND IT. IT'S THE ABSOLUTE READINESS OF WHAT WE HAVE.
[00:49:01] AND THEN YOU THINK ABOUT THE CHINESE SYSTEM. IT'S ENDEMIC WITH CORRUPTION.
[00:49:05] YOU YOU GET PAID NOTHING. YOU HAVE LOW RESPECT IN THEIR SOCIETY. AS A MILITARY OFFICER, THE WHOLE
[00:49:09] THING IS ONLY WORKED THROUGH GRAFT.
[00:49:12] AND NOW LIKE MATTERS? LIKE, OKAY, YOU FIGURED OUT
[00:49:15] THERE WAS WATER IN YOUR ROCKETS INSTEAD OF FUEL. WHAT ELSE HAVE YOU NOT FIGURED OUT HOW LONG IT'S GOING TO TAKE
[00:49:19] YOU TO BOTTOM? ALL THAT STUFF OUT, ALL THAT INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
[00:49:23] AND THEN YOU RECOGNIZE LIKE, OH, AMERICA IS NOT LIKE THAT.
[00:49:27] THEY'RE NOT SAFE IN OUR FUEL. LIKE THERE SHOULD ACTUALLY WORKS.
[00:49:31] AND I THINK SEEING THAT INTUITIVE SCENARIOS REALLY PLAY
[00:49:33] OUT SHOWS THAT WE HAVE BOTH WILL
[00:49:36] AND UNMATCHED CAPABILITY.
[00:49:41] JOHN. YOU DON'T NEED TO INTRODUCE YOURSELF.
[00:49:45] I, I COULDN'T HELP THINKING IN YOUR DISCUSSION ABOUT THIS IS
[00:49:50] THE WAY WE UNDERSTAND THE WORLD MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE, THAT WHAT YOU'RE TRYING TO DO IS TO
[00:49:53] MAKE PEOPLE WAKE UP AND SEE THAT
[00:49:56] THE, THE OLD WAYS HAVE TO BE CHALLENGE.
[00:49:58] THAT'S WHAT THE HERESIES ARE. I WANTED TO GET YOUR OPINIONS
[00:50:04] ABOUT THE WAY IN WHICH OUR OUR
[00:50:06] KIND OF LITERATURE OR OUR POETS
[00:50:10] OPERATE AGAINST TECHNOLOGY. I MEAN THE GREAT OPPOSITION TO
[00:50:13] AI IS DETERMINED LATER OR HAL OR
[00:50:16] EVERY TIME YOU, YOU, YOU USE THIS STUFF.
[00:50:19] YEAH, IT'S IT'S EVIL OR IT'S IT'S IT'S SUICIDAL.
[00:50:23] THERE'S A WAY IN WHICH YOU'RE TALKING EMPIRICALLY ABOUT THE
[00:50:27] WORLD AND THE IMAGINATION IS BEING TAKEN OVER BY PEOPLE WHO
[00:50:30] ARE AGAINST YOU. HOW DO YOU THINK ABOUT THAT
[00:50:34] PROBLEM AND HOW WE CAN SOLVE IT? WELL, WHAT I THINK ABOUT THIS
[00:50:36] PROBLEM A LOT, SO YOU COULD JUST START WITH A HISTORICAL VERSION
[00:50:40] OF IT, WHICH IS LIKE WHAT? YOU KNOW, I GREW UP IN THE SHADOW OF THE SPACE COAST IN
[00:50:43] ORLANDO AND WHEN THE SHUTTLE LAUNCHED, YOU WOULD GO OUT TO
[00:50:46] THE COURTYARD AND YOU COULD ACTUALLY SEE THE CONTRAIL ON REENTRY.
[00:50:49] THE DOUBLE SONIC BOOMS WOULD WAKE YOU UP EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING.
[00:50:52] ALWAYS SEEM TO BE SATURDAY MORNING. AND LIKE 5 A.M., SIX.
[00:50:54] AS A KID, THAT WAS GREAT.
[00:50:57] CARTOONS WERE THE NEXT NEXT DESTINATION.
[00:51:01] BUT YOU'RE LITERALLY GROWING UP
[00:51:03] IN THE SHADOW OF OPTIMISM THAT
[00:51:05] TECHNOLOGY LOOK AT LOOK AT WHAT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY IS GOING
[00:51:08] TO BENEFIT HUMANITY. YOU LOOK AT THE ASPIRATION, THE AMBITION.
[00:51:11] IT'S SO CRAZY. THERE'S A FRONTIER TO GO
[00:51:14] EXPLORE, YOU KNOW, AND I WOULD SAY GENERALLY OUR MEDIA WAS
[00:51:18] PRETTY OPTIMISTIC THAT YOU THINK ABOUT HUNT FOR RED OCTOBER
[00:51:21] NATIONAL GREATNESS, YOU KNOW, EVEN KID STUFF LIKE RED DAWN,
[00:51:24] THERE WAS HERO ISM IN THE
[00:51:27] CONTENT AND AND AND WE ALSO HAD
[00:51:29] WE HAD LIKE THE GENE RODDENBERRY OPTIMISTIC SCI FI, YOU KNOW,
[00:51:32] MAYBE STAR TREK'S A LITTLE TOO COMMUNIST FOR ME, BUT STILL IT'S NONETHELESS IT'S IT'S IT'S VERY
[00:51:37] OPTIMIST VIEW OF THE FUTURE.
[00:51:39] AND LIKE I THINK THINGS LIKE TERMINATOR DO A LOT OF DAMAGE
[00:51:43] THEY THEY SEND A LOT OF SUBCONSCIOUS SIGNALS YOU KNOW AT
[00:51:45] SOME SOME POINT JURASSIC PARK
[00:51:48] BECAME ABOUT A SUBTLE WARNING THAT OF COURSE THERE ARE
[00:51:50] CONSEQUENCES TECHNOLOGY BUT MOST PEOPLE I KNOW WERE INSPIRED BY IT. LIKE WE SHOULD BRING DINOSAURS
[00:51:54] BACK. REALLY COOL. BUT IF YOU LOOK AT JURASSIC PARK 17 OR WHATEVER, THE LAST ONE
[00:51:58] WAS, IT'S REALLY LIKE
[00:52:00] ENVIRONMENTALISM AND SCIENCE IS BAD AND WE SHOULD JUST TURN OUR
[00:52:03] BACK ON ALL THIS STUFF AND IT'S GONE TOO FAR. AND OF COURSE YOU DON'T WANT TO
[00:52:07] BE TOTALLY POLLYANNISH, YOU KNOW, YOU WANT TO BE OBLIVIOUS TO THE CONSEQUENCES THAT
[00:52:11] TECHNOLOGY WILL DRIVE CHANGE,
[00:52:13] BUT YOU CAN'T BE SO PESSIMIST THICK AS TO TO BE SO RETROGRADE
[00:52:16] AND TURN YOUR BACK ON THESE THINGS ENTIRELY. AND SO STRIKING. THAT BALANCE, I THINK, COMES
[00:52:21] DOWN TO THE STORIES WE TELL EACH OTHER. AND SO WHAT IS OUR ART IS IS
[00:52:24] ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL AND, YOU KNOW, I THINK THERE'S AN OPPOSITE. I THINK PEOPLE ALSO KIND OF
[00:52:28] TIRED OF THE CYNICAL STORY IS AND THERE'S GOING TO BE AN
[00:52:31] OPPORTUNITY LIKE YOU THINK ABOUT. I'LL GIVE YOU A SILLY EXAMPLE,
[00:52:35] WHICH IS LAND MAN. I THINK LAND MAN HAS DONE MORE TO GET PEOPLE TO KIND OF
[00:52:38] INTERNALIZE THE NECESSITY AND VALUE AND HOW HARD IT IS TO
[00:52:41] ACTUALLY GET THESE FOSSIL FUELS OUT OF THE GROUND TWO MILES DOWN.
[00:52:44] IN SOME SENSE, IT'S A MIRACLE THAT IT WORKS AT ALL. BUT, YOU KNOW, THE MESSAGE IS
[00:52:48] JUST IT'S JUST ENTERTAINMENT. AND SO I THINK TELLING THE REST
[00:52:52] OF OUR STORIES REALLY DO MATTER. OKAY?
[00:52:54] YES, SIR. YOU KNOW. ALL RIGHT.
[00:52:58] THANK YOU, JAKE AND SARA, SINCE
[00:53:00] A QUESTION IS THE IRAN WAR, OR
[00:53:04] IF I DON'T KNOW IF WE CALL IT A WAR, WHAT NOW?
[00:53:07] BUT IT'S DEMONSTRATED THAT
[00:53:10] RESOURCES ARE THE CONSTRAINING FACTOR.
[00:53:13] AND AS MUCH AS WE WANT TO SAY THAT THE INNOVATION CURVE IS
[00:53:17] INFINITE, HOW DO WE SQUARE THAT WITH RESOURCES?
[00:53:21] ARE FINITE AND OUR ABILITY TO
[00:53:24] PROTECT THEM IS EVEN FINITE. WHEN YOU SAY RESOURCE, DO YOU
[00:53:28] MEAN OIL? OKAY. EXAMPLE THEN ALSO WITH CHINA,
[00:53:30] CRITICAL MINERALS AND I KNOW WE HAVE THE PROJECT VAULT AND I'D
[00:53:33] LOVE TO HEAR YOUR THOUGHTS ON THAT TOO. WELL, YEAH, I THINK YOU NEED
[00:53:37] MORE DIVERSITY OF SUPPLY. SO, YOU KNOW, THERE'S OBVIOUSLY GOING TO BE A SHORT TERM PRICE
[00:53:41] SHOCK AND THE LONGER IT GOES, MAYBE IT TURNS INTO A LONG TERM ISSUE.
[00:53:45] BUT NOT EVERY PART OF THE WORLD IS DEPENDENT OIL THAT'S COMING FROM THE MIDDLE EAST.
[00:53:48] EVEN IF THE PRICE OF OIL IS DEPENDENT ON THE OIL THAT'S COMING FROM THE MIDDLE EAST.
[00:53:51] SO THIS IS PART OF THE MYTH OF
[00:53:53] GLOBAL GLOBALIZATION, THE SAME WAY WITH CLOUD COMPUTING. WHAT IS CLOUD COMPUTING?
[00:53:58] THERE'S NO CLOUD. THERE ARE SOME PHYSICAL
[00:54:01] INFRASTRUCTURE SOMEWHERE ELSE. THERE IS STILL YOUR POINT OF VULNERABILITY. AND I THINK, YOU KNOW, YOU HAVE
[00:54:05] TO PIERCE THESE LAYERS OF ABSTRACTION TO REALIZE THAT. I THINK WITH RARE EARTHS WE WERE
[00:54:09] ABLE TO LIVE IN THIS WORLD WHERE WE THOUGHT THERE'S NOT THAT MUCH
[00:54:13] ECONOMIC VALUE HERE. THERE'S NO REAL MARGIN.
[00:54:15] YOU KNOW, WHY WOULD WE INVEST IN
[00:54:17] THIS PART OF THE SUPPLY CHAIN? BUT WE'RE NOT VIEWING IT.
[00:54:19] WE'VE NOW LEARNED PAINFULLY, YOU HAVE TO VIEW IT THROUGH THE RISK
[00:54:23] LENS OF THIS, WHICH IS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STUFF TO
[00:54:25] DEPRIVED IS A CHOKE POINT FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE ECONOMY.
[00:54:29] I PUSH IN THIS DIRECTION OF BEING A RE INDUSTRIALIZATION
[00:54:34] MAXIM. IT'S BECAUSE OF THAT THAT I THINK AT SOME VERY BASIC LEVEL.
[00:54:36] SO LET'S TAKE PHARMACEUTICALS AND NATIONAL WILL TO FIGHT.
[00:54:39] SO 80% OF OUR APIS FOR GENERICS AND GENERIC DRUGS COMES OUT OF
[00:54:44] CHINA. WHAT DO YOU THINK THE AMERICAN
[00:54:46] PEOPLE'S WILL TO FIGHT IS GOING TO BE WHEN THEY HAVE TO SUDDENLY
[00:54:50] DECIDE WHETHER THEIR FIVE YEAR OLD IS GOING TO DIE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A TRIVIAL EAR
[00:54:54] INFECTION BECAUSE WE NO LONGER HAVE ANTIBIOTICS OR FIGHT A WAR?
[00:54:58] YOU KNOW, THERE ARE ALL THESE
[00:55:00] WAYS IN WHICH PURELY VIEWING
[00:55:02] THIS STUFF ECONOMICALLY DOESN'T
[00:55:06] WORK WHEN THE OTHER SIDE ISN'T INTERESTED.
[00:55:09] YOU KNOW, THE WAY I PUT THIS, PARTICULARLY WITH CHINA, IS THAT IS THE CCP.
[00:55:12] IT'S NOT ENOUGH FOR CHINA TO PROSPER.
[00:55:15] AMERICA MUST ALSO FAIL. IT IS TOTALLY AN ECONOMIC
[00:55:18] BUSINESS DECISION WHETHER YOU WANT TO BUY AMERICAN SOYBEANS OR BRAZILIAN SOYBEANS.
[00:55:21] I DON'T ACTUALLY BEGRUDGE YOU FOR THAT. THAT'S THAT'S TRADE. BUT WHEN YOU'RE TRYING TO
[00:55:26] SMUGGLE IN AGRICULTURAL FUNGUSES SO THAT WE CAN'T GROW SOYBEANS,
[00:55:29] THAT'S NOT TRADE. THAT'S SOMETHING ELSE.
[00:55:31] AND BEING CLEAR EYED ABOUT WHAT ARE THEIR INTENTS.
[00:55:34] AND THEN AS A CONSEQUENCE, WHAT SORT OF DEALS CAN YOU EVEN HAVE
[00:55:37] WITH THEM THAT AREN'T GOING TO JUST BE PURELY CONQUEST?
[00:55:40] ECONOMICS IS THE CRITICAL
[00:55:43] CONCEPTUAL UNDERSTANDING TO READ, TO UNDERWRITE THE BASIS
[00:55:45] FOR RE INDUSTRIALIZATION.
[00:55:50] YES.
[00:55:52] THANK YOU. AND TO HAVE FREEDOM SENIOR
[00:55:56] VISITING FELLOW AT THE HUDSON INSTITUTE.
[00:56:00] IN 2018, THERE WAS A CLASH
[00:56:02] BETWEEN THE GOOGLE, GOOGLE AND
[00:56:04] THE PENTAGON ON THE PROJECT MAVEN.
[00:56:08] TODAY WE HAVE ANOTHER CLASH BETWEEN THE ULTRA SPEAKER AND
[00:56:10] THE PENTAGON. WHAT DOES WHAT WHAT DO YOU THINK
[00:56:14] IT REVEAL ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIP
[00:56:17] BETWEEN THE AI FIRM AND THE NATIONAL SECURITY IMPERATIVES?
[00:56:22] WELL, FIRST OF ALL, I THINK IT IS IT'S A TRAGEDY BECAUSE IT IS
[00:56:25] IN THE NATIONAL INTEREST FOR ALL THESE LABS TO BE IN THE FIGHT.
[00:56:28] I THINK MY PERSONAL VIEW IS
[00:56:32] THAT, LIKE THERE'S A LOT OF LESSONS FROM HISTORY THAT THAT
[00:56:35] WE OUGHT TO REFLECT ON AND THE
[00:56:38] KIND OF KNEE JERK REACTION TO HAVE THIS SORT OF SIMPLISTIC
[00:56:41] VIEW OF LIKE, YOU KNOW, I WANT TO GOVERN. HOW AM I TECHNOLOGY IS USED IS
[00:56:46] VERY UNDERSTANDABLE. I THINK A LOT OF ENGINEERS, MYSELF INCLUDED, START THERE.
[00:56:49] BUT THEN IF YOU IF YOU SET THIS IN THE CONTEXT OF DEMOCRACY, YOU
[00:56:54] KNOW, IT'S IT'S INTOLERABLE, I THINK, FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE
[00:56:57] TO SAY THAT A UNELECTED OFFICIAL THAT THEY'RE UNABLE TO HOLD
[00:57:01] ACCOUNTABLE IS ACTUALLY GOING TO BE DRIVING POLICY.
[00:57:04] IT BECOMES TYRANNY BY TECH, BRO, IN A HOODIE.
[00:57:06] AND I THINK THAT PERSPECTIVE IS NOT UNDERSTOOD CERTAINLY BY THE
[00:57:11] TECHNOLOGY AS THEY VIEW IT AS LIKE, WELL, THIS WOULD BE IMMORAL.
[00:57:13] AND, YOU KNOW, THAT'S THAT'S THEY'RE FREE TO HAVE THAT VIEW
[00:57:16] IN AMERICA. BUT ALSO RECOGNIZING THAT MAYBE OTHER PEOPLE DON'T HAVE THAT
[00:57:21] VIEW. THAT'S SO THAT'S ONE LAYER, JUST LIKE EPISTEMIC ABILITY, YOU KNOW, LIKE HOW DID THE SOVIETS
[00:57:24] GET THE BOMB? YOU KNOW, PEOPLE LIKE THEODORE HALL, WHO WAS EDWARD HALL'S BROTHER.
[00:57:28] SO EDWARD HALL MAKES THE MINUTEMAN, YOU YOU ONE OF THE YOUNGEST SCIENTISTS IN THE
[00:57:32] MANHATTAN PROJECT AT 18 YEARS OLD, FRESH OUT OF HARVARD, THEODORE HALL.
[00:57:36] HE SAYS IN HIS INFINITE WISDOM, BECAUSE HE'S ONE OF THE WORLD'S BEST PHYSICISTS AND HE WAS I
[00:57:40] KNOW, GEE, POLITICS TO THE WORLD
[00:57:42] WILL HAVE PEACE IF THERE ARE TWO COUNTRIES WITH THE BOMB AND
[00:57:46] AMERICAN MONOPOLY ON THE BOMB IS DANGEROUS. SO HE WALKS INTO THE SOVIET TRADE MISSION IN NEW YORK AND
[00:57:50] GIVES THEM SECRETS, YOU KNOW, AND SO, YOU KNOW, A FEAR OR
[00:57:54] ACCOUNTING OF THEODORE HALL IS
[00:57:56] EVERY DEATH FROM COMMUNISM SINCE
[00:57:58] 1949 THAT BLOOD'S ON HIS HANDS, CERTAINLY IN PART.
[00:58:02] BUT THAT'S NOT HOW I THINK THE ENGINEER VIEWS THAT.
[00:58:04] AND I THINK THAT THAT'S PART OF THE CHALLENGE. NOW.
[00:58:08] AND I ALSO FEEL LIKE THERE ARE
[00:58:12] THERE WERE VERY PRAGMATIC COMPROMISES THAT CAN BE MADE HERE. AND WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO HAVE
[00:58:15] A NATIONAL DIALOG ON THESE THINGS BECAUSE I KNOW THAT YOU JUST BRUSH THIS UNDER THE RUG
[00:58:19] AND KIND OF MOVE, BUT I IF I HAD
[00:58:22] NOTICED CYNICISM OR LACK OF OPTIMISM, IT'D BE LIKE, WOW, I
[00:58:25] THOUGHT WE WERE PAST THIS, YOU KNOW? BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK AT GOOGLE, IT'S A TOTALLY DIFFERENT COMPANY TODAY.
[00:58:29] THEY ARE VERY INVESTED IN
[00:58:31] FREEDOM AND PROSPERITY AND, YOU KNOW, YOU SHOULDN'T TARNISH THEM
[00:58:34] WITH THE BRUSH OF THE VIEWS THAT THEY HAD IN 2018, WHICH MIGHT
[00:58:37] EVEN HAVE BEEN MORE LIKE KIND OF A POPULIST REACTION INSIDE THE
[00:58:41] INSTITUTION VERSUS AN INSTITUTIONAL VIEW. BUT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO
[00:58:44] RECONCILE WITH THOSE THINGS ONCE AGAIN. GREAT. WELL, THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY, OUR
[00:58:47] TIME IS UP. CAN I MAKE ONE COMMENT?
[00:58:51] GO RIGHT. AND I WANT TO MAKE SURE TO THANK AND INTRODUCE MY CO MADELINE
[00:58:54] HAAS IN THE AUDIENCE AS WELL. THANK YOU.
[00:58:57] THAT WAS TERRIFIC.
[00:59:02] WELCOME. AND AND THIS IS THIS IS A GREAT BOOK.
[00:59:06] AND I HOPE YOU ALL GET A CHANCE TO READ IT. AND FOR THOSE OF YOU DON'T
[00:59:10] SNATCH ONE HERE, BUY IT.
[00:59:12] IT'S YOU KNOW SOMETIMES THEY SAY
[00:59:15] IN THE 21ST CENTURY, IF YOU WANT TO KEEP SOMETHING SECRET,
[00:59:19] PUBLISH IT IN A BOOK.
[00:59:21] BUT THIS IS A BOOK THAT DESERVES TO BE READ.
[00:59:24] I THINK WE'VE HAD ENOUGH OF A SAMPLE OF WHAT'S ON SHAMS MIND
[00:59:28] THAT WE KNOW THIS IS A MIND THAT IS WORTH FOLLOWING.
[00:59:32] I AM CERTAINLY GLAD, COLONEL,
[00:59:34] THAT YOU ARE A PATRIOT DOING
[00:59:36] WHAT YOU'RE DOING FOR THE UNITED
[00:59:38] STATES, AND GOD BLESS YOU AND
[00:59:42] THIS MORNING, NASA ASTRONAUTS
[00:59:44] JESSICA MEIR AND A NAIL MEN ON
[00:59:46] STEP OUTSIDE THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION FOR A CRITICAL
[00:59:50] SPACEWALK TO PREPARE THE STATION FOR THE INSTALLATION OF ITS
[00:59:53] SEVENTH ROLL OUT SOLAR ARRAY. THE NEW HARDWARE WILL INCREASE
[00:59:57] THE STATION'S POWER CAPACITY SUPPORT FUTURE SCIENTIFIC
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