CSPAN — Washington Journal Rafael Mangual
20260812 165100 UTC
152 transcript segments
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[00:00:00] THEATER IN WASHINGTON, D.C., FOR
[00:00:03] A LIVELY DISCUSSION ON THE LEGACY AND MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT
[00:00:05] MARY TODD LINCOLN AND THE PRESIDENCY OF ABRAHAM LINCOLN.
[00:00:08] >> YOU DECIDED TO WRITE A BOOK
[00:00:10] ON MARY TODD LINCOLN, ABRAHAM LINCOLN'S ONLY WIFE.
[00:00:16] WHY DID YOU DECIDE TO WRITE A BOOK?
[00:00:18] WHAT WAS YOUR CONCERN ABOUT HER REPUTATION THAT LED YOU TO WRITE THIS BOOK?
[00:00:21] >> THAT SHE WAS JUDGED BY SOME
[00:00:26] OF HER FLAWS, AND NO ONE SHOULD
[00:00:29] BE JUDGED BY ONLY HER FLAWS.
[00:00:32] FROM THE BEGINNING, I FELT MUCH
[00:00:34] COMPASSION, AND BY THE END, I
[00:00:36] JUST FELT SO DEEPLY FOR HER.
[00:00:39] DURING THE COURSE OF HER LIFE,
[00:00:42] SHE LOST THREE CHILDREN BEFORE
[00:00:44] 18 AND HER HUSBAND WAS SHOT IN FRONT OF HER AND SHE LOST HER
[00:00:48] MOTHER AT SIX, AND SHE WENT
[00:00:50] THROUGH A CIVIL WAR AND HALF OF HER FAMILY, ACTUALLY, MORE THAN
[00:00:53] HALF OF HER FAMILY WAS FIGHTING
[00:00:55] FOR THE CONFEDERACY AND SHE
[00:00:58] RECEIVED NO SYMPATHY OR EMPATHY FROM ANYONE.
[00:01:01] >> WATCH AMERICA'S BOOK CLUB
[00:01:04] SUNDAY AT 6:00 P.M. AND 9:00 P.M. EASTERN AND PACIFIC ONLY ON
[00:01:08] C-SPAN.
[00:01:13] ♪
[00:01:57] HOST: REMIND OUR AUDIENCE WHAT
[00:02:01] IS YOUR MISSION IS, AND WHO IT WORKS WITH AND HOW IT IS FUNDED.
[00:02:05] GUEST: THE MANHATTAN INSTITUTE IS A PUBLIC POLICY THINK TANK WHICH BASICALLY MEANS THEY HAVE
[00:02:09] A LOT OF SMART PEOPLE WRITE ABOUT POLICY AREAS. WE HAVE A NATIONAL FOCUS BASED
[00:02:12] IN NEW YORK. I SPECIFICALLY COVER POLICING
[00:02:16] PUBLIC SAFETY, AND THE INSTITUTE
[00:02:19] IS PRIVATELY FUNDED, MOSTLY PHILANTHROPIC DOLLARS.
[00:02:23] HOST: YOU ARE ALSO A MEMBER ON
[00:02:27] THE COUNCIL OF JUSTICE AND RICHLY RELEASED A REPORT ON
[00:02:30] MIDYEAR. PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS TURNED HIS
[00:02:34] CRACKDOWN ON CRIME AS A REASON
[00:02:37] IN THE CRIME.
[00:02:40] WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT REPORT?
[00:02:42] GUEST: IT IS EXPECTED TO ADMINISTER SHE WILL TRY TO TAKE
[00:02:46] CREDIT FOR THE THINGS HAPPENING UNDER HIS WATCH AND THERE IS
[00:02:48] GOOD EVIDENCE THE ADMINISTRATION HAS CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTED TO THE
[00:02:51] NATIONAL CRIME DECLINE WITH ITS EFFORTS PARTICULARLY IN CITIES
[00:02:55] LIKE WASHINGTON, D.C., MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE. BUT LOOKING FOR A SINGULAR
[00:03:00] REASON TO EXPLAINING A BROAD NATIONAL TREND. THIS WILL PROBABLY COME UP
[00:03:03] EMPTY-HANDED. THESE ARE MULTI-PICTORIAL PROBLEMS THAT HAVE A LOT OF
[00:03:07] DIFFERENT FACTORS AND DIFFERENT WEIGHTS AND DIFFERENT POWER.
[00:03:11] IT IS LARGELY A COMBINATION OF A BUNCH OF THINGS POLICY RELATED
[00:03:14] AND NOT POLICY RELATED. HOST: TALK ABOUT THAT REPORT.
[00:03:17] WHICH CRIMES DID WE SEE DROP? WHICH DID WE SEE INCREASE?
[00:03:22] OVERALL, HOW DOES IT COMPARE TO THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF 2025?
[00:03:25] GUEST: IT IS A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE.
[00:03:29] THE HOMICIDE DROPS ARE MOST IMPRESSIVE BECAUSE WE ARE ON TRACK TO SET A NEW RECORD IN
[00:03:33] THIS COUNTRY, WHICH IS FANTASTIC.
[00:03:36] NINE OF THE 13 CATEGORIES THEY TRACK ARE MOVING DOWNWARD.
[00:03:41] WE SAW A BIG INCREASE IN DRUG OFFENSES, WHICH IS CONCERNING.
[00:03:47] BUT IT IS A REALLY POSITIVE TREND. YOU ARE LOOKING AT CRIMES OF
[00:03:50] ROBBERY AND GUN ASSAULT MOVING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. ROBBERY ALSO.
[00:03:56] YOU DON'T SEE FELONY ASSAULTS IN GENERAL MOVED OUT AS MUCH, WHICH
[00:03:59] IS CONCERNING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE BROADER TRENDS POST-PANDEMIC
[00:04:03] IN TERMS OF HOW WE BEHAVE NATURALLY.
[00:04:13] PEOPLE ARE SPENDING MORE TIME AT HOME AND DRIPPING LESS SO THIS
[00:04:17] PRESENTS THE OPPORTUNITY BUT WE ARE STILL NOT SEEING A MASSIVE DECLINE IN FELONY ASSAULTS,
[00:04:20] WHICH IS CONCERNING BECAUSE IF
[00:04:23] YOU ADJUST FOR THE TIME WE SPENT IN THE STREET WHERE WE MIGHT BE
[00:04:27] VICTIMIZED, THE RISK IS A LOT HIGHER THAN THE NUMBERS WHICH ADJUST.
[00:04:30] BUT STILL, HOMICIDE DECLINE IS SOMETHING THAT SHOULD BE ABSOLUTELY CELEBRATED.
[00:04:34] SOME OF THESE OTHER CATEGORY DECLINES ARE LESS SURPRISING.
[00:04:36] RESIDENTIAL BURGLARY DECLINES.
[00:04:39] PEOPLE ARE SPENDING MORE TIME AT HOME.
[00:04:42] I THINK WE WILL SEE LESS OF IT.
[00:04:43] HOST: YOU SAID THERE WAS NOT A
[00:04:47] SINGULAR REASON FOR THIS DROP IN CRIME. BUT WHAT ARE THE FACTORS?
[00:04:51] I KNOW YOU SAID WERE PEOPLE IS WINNING TIME AT HOME, BUT WHAT ARE THE FACTORS LEADING TO THE
[00:04:55] SUBSTANTIAL DROP? GUEST: THERE ARE A BUNCH OF THINGS.
[00:05:00] IN A NON-POLICY BUCKET, ROUTINE ACTIVITIES THAT CHANGE THE TIME
[00:05:04] WE SPENT AT HOME, HOW MUCH LESS TIME WE SPENT ON PUBLIC TRANSIT.
[00:05:11] WE ARE SEEING PEOPLE DRINK LESS. AMERICANS ARE CONSUMING ALCOHOL
[00:05:15] AT SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RATES, APPROACHING A RECORD IN TERMS OF
[00:05:19] ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION.
[00:05:21] HOST: THIS AGENCY DOES NOT DRINK ALCOHOL. GUEST: THAT IS RIGHT.
[00:05:24] NOT ATTENDING NIGHT, BARS ARE DOWN.
[00:05:30] VIOLENT CRIME CATEGORIES TEND TO BE FOCUSED THERE SO THAT IS ONE THING.
[00:05:34] ON THE POLICY FRONT, THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF MOVEMENT TO THE RIGHT ON POLICY IN THIS COUNTRY.
[00:05:43] EVEN NEW YORK WITH ITS REFORM,
[00:05:45] YOU HAVE HAD A MASSIVE CHANGE IN
[00:05:49] THE PROSECUTOR MOVEMENT.
[00:05:50] FROM 2014 TO 2021, LOTS OF
[00:05:55] RADICAL PROGRESSIVE PROSECUTORS
[00:05:56] TAKING WINS IN BIG-CITY D.A. RACES.
[00:06:02] AT ONE POINT WE HAD ALMOST 70 MILLION AMERICANS IN AMERICA.
[00:06:05] THAT NUMBER HAS GONE DOWN.
[00:06:07] LOS ANGELES, YOU HAD A RECALL IN
[00:06:13] SAN FRANCISCO AND A RECALL IN
[00:06:17] OAKLAND AND IN BALTIMORE, MARYLAND.
[00:06:24] SAME THING WITH CHICAGO.
[00:06:29] AGAIN, BURKE HAS TAKEN A MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE APPROACH.
[00:06:32] YOU HAVE THAT IN ATHENS, GEORGIA.
[00:06:38] YOU HAVE LOUISIANA ROLLING BACK JUVENILE JUSTICE REFORMS.
[00:06:42] TENNESSEE STOPPED INTRUSIVE SENTENCING, PUSHING THREE
[00:06:44] STRIKES, CHANGING ITS CONSTITUTION TO MAKE IT EASIER TO JAIL PEOPLE PRETRIAL.
[00:06:49] PRISON PREPARATION HAS GONE UP THE LAST FEW YEARS.
[00:06:52] WE HAVE DATA FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN A DECADE. POLICE DEPARTMENT ACROSS THE
[00:06:56] COUNTRY ARE ASSERTING THEMSELVES . JURISDICTIONS ARE SEEING LESS
[00:07:00] NUMBERS GO BACK UP. NEW YORK CITY IS A GREAT EXAMPLE OF THAT.
[00:07:04] WHEN THAT HAPPENS, WE TEND TO EXPECT CRIME TO COME DOWN.
[00:07:08] THERE ARE A LOT OF ISSUES IN THE 2024 CYCLE, BUT IT IS
[00:07:12] INTERESTING AND MIGHT BE PLAYING
[00:07:14] A ROLE WITH CALIFORNIA WITH PROP
[00:07:18] 36, CRIMINALIZING SOME OF THE THEFT AND DRUG OFFENSES.
[00:07:22] OREGON HAD DECRIMINALIZED, RE-CRIMINALIZED THEM A COUPLE
[00:07:26] YEARS LATER I BELIEVE IN 2024 AS WELL.
[00:07:33] YOU HAVE THE ARIZONA BALLOT INITIATIVE TO MAKE PEOPLE
[00:07:37] ELIGIBLE FOR A TAX REBATE.
[00:07:42] YOU HAVE OTHER STATES BUILD OUT
[00:07:45] NEW FUNDING FOR THE HIRING OF
[00:07:48] ADDITIONAL POLICE OFFICERS, AND OF COURSE YOU HAVE THE FEDERAL
[00:07:51] EFFORT, THE JOINT TASK FORCES IN
[00:07:53] D.C. AND MEMPHIS, THE IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT CAMPAIGN.
[00:07:57] HOST: I WANT TO INVITE OUR
[00:08:00] VIEWERS TO JOIN IN ON THE CONVERSATION.
[00:08:02] WE HAVE RAFAEL MANGUAL HERE,
[00:08:07] MANHATTAN INSTITUTE, HERE TO DISCUSS A NEW COUNSEL ON
[00:08:10] CRIMINAL JUSTICE REFORM FOR
[00:08:14] MIDYEAR CRIME TRENDS IN THE U.S.
[00:08:15] CITIES AND ALSO TO DISCUSS THE
[00:08:20] ADMINISTRATION'S EFFORTS TO BRING DOWN VIOLENT CRIME. I WILL REPEAT THE LINES.
[00:08:23] REPUBLICANS, YOUR LIGHT IS -- LI
[00:08:26] NE IS (202) 748-8001.DEMOCRATS
[00:08:30] , (202) 748-8000.
[00:08:34] INDEPENDENTS, (202) 748-8002. YOU CAN ALSO REACH US BY TEXT MESSAGE.
[00:08:37] THAT NUMBER IS (202) 748-8003.
[00:08:39] OF COURSE, WE ARE ON SOCIALS,
[00:08:42] BOTH FACEBOOK AND X.
[00:08:49] WE WILL CHECK THE QUESTIONS YOU GUYS HAVE SHARED WITH US BEFORE HAND.
[00:08:54] I WANT TO ASK, IN THIS TIME IN WHICH PEOPLE HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT
[00:08:59] DATA, ABOUT SURVEYS COME ABOUT THE INFORMATION THEY ARE
[00:09:02] RECEIVING, HOW CHALLENGING IS IT
[00:09:03] TO PINPOINT, ONE, WHY CRIME HAS
[00:09:09] INCREASED OR
[00:09:15] HOW DIFFICULT IS THE ACTUAL DATA GATHERING?
[00:09:16] GUEST: THE DATA-GATHERING HAS
[00:09:19] GOTTEN EASIER THE LAST FEW YEARS.
[00:09:24] THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT END THE
[00:09:26] UNIFORM CRIME REPORTING AND THAT
[00:09:29] WAS A CHALLENGE IN PART BECAUSE
[00:09:31] THE SORT OF TRANSACTION COSTS OF COMPLYING FOR SMALLER
[00:09:35] DEPARTMENTS WERE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY.
[00:09:39] IN THE FIRST COUPLE YEARS AFTER
[00:09:41] THAT YOU HAD POLICE DEPARTMENTS
[00:09:44] FAILING TO REPORT FULLY AND THAT
[00:09:47] MADE IT DIFFICULT TO PUT A FINGER ON WHAT THE NATIONAL CRIME TRENDS LOOK LIKE.
[00:09:53] HOMICIDE AND CAR THEFTS, YO