CURRENTTIME — broadcast
20260920 040000 UTC
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[00:00:38] A winter military campaign. This will probably be the harshest
[00:00:41] winter ever for these, I don't know, 30 million
[00:00:45] Ukrainians who are still on the territory of
[00:00:48] Ukraine. Senseless and ruthless.
[00:00:51] Stop shaking the country for 6 months, every
[00:00:55] 6 years, hairdressers, models,
[00:00:57] loggers are running for elections.
[00:01:01] lies, because he loves. The master
[00:01:03] says something to the serfs, the serfs have
[00:01:07] no way to hold him accountable for his
[00:01:11] words. Program of the Time. This week's results with Mumin Shakirov. We are starting.
[00:02:30] there is hope in God, accordingly, it gives them strength to move
[00:02:33] forward, with each step further and further, to bring
[00:02:36] victory closer. On the front in recent months, there has been a difficult positional
[00:02:40] war, local battles, where the advance of both armies
[00:02:44] was measured by reports of capturing one or two little-known villages.
[00:02:47] But in recent weeks, the situation around Lyman in
[00:02:51] Donbas has changed significantly. The Armed Forces are conducting counterattacks
[00:02:55] north of the city. Russian units were forced
[00:02:58] to withdraw from separate areas.
[00:03:17] Therefore, one of the first tasks of the Third Army Corps was its
[00:03:20] destruction. In open sources, there is now a lot of
[00:03:24] information that the ultimate goal of the operation is to reach the bank of
[00:03:27] the Black Stallion River. But our operation
[00:03:30] is called Vivaldi, and in Vivaldi, as you know, there are four seasons,
[00:03:33] and this is only the first of them, so follow our official
[00:03:37] announcements, and don't rush with spoilers, good news
[00:03:41] will come, but now our actions need
[00:03:43] silence, sounds
[00:03:46] promising, can we believe the Brigadier General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
[00:03:50] against the background of the fierce information war from
[00:03:53] both sides? Biletsky himself did not say
[00:03:55] how far Ukrainian troops advanced. He described
[00:03:59] all this quite carefully, but if
[00:04:02] we take other unofficial descriptions from the Ukrainian
[00:04:05] side, these claims are not yet fully confirmed, that is, there is
[00:04:09] an advance, an advance by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there is an obvious
[00:04:12] crisis of Russian defense in the area of the city of
[00:04:15] Lyman, and this is a quarter of the front,
[00:04:19] a quarter of the arc, along which Russian troops are trying to advance on
[00:04:22] the Kramatorsk and Sloviansk agglomeration, in fact,
[00:04:25] this is the main goal of the entire Russian war plan at this
[00:04:28] stage, a quarter, a quarter of this
[00:04:31] front, not the most important, since it is separated from Sloviansk
[00:04:35] by the Siversky Donets River, which is quite difficult to force,
[00:04:38] but nevertheless, this part of the front of the Russian
[00:04:42] army, one can say, failed, at least
[00:04:45] the Russian army will not be able to launch an offensive in the near future there,
[00:04:48] Russian troops left more than 200 km in
[00:04:52] one of the key directions in Donetsk region, the bridgehead north of
[00:04:56] Lyman was lost, it was from there that the Russian forces...
[00:05:12] the four-month study of the war
[00:05:14] counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine negated Russia's territorial gains since
[00:05:18] March, thwarting plans to encircle Sloviansk and
[00:05:22] Kramatorsk. Even Z-channels recognize the worsening
[00:05:26] situation, explaining it by systemic lies in reports to the top.
[00:05:29] A striking example is Sviatohirsk. Putin
[00:05:32] reported its capture. In the last month, 14
[00:05:36] settlements came under the control of Russian troops, including the liberation of
[00:05:39] Kozacha. Yesterday the city of
[00:05:43] Sviatohirsk. Front-line reports increasingly
[00:05:46] diverge from what is seen on the ground. On staff maps
[00:05:49] - one thing, satellite images and videos from the front -
[00:05:53] another. The Russian army is trying to maintain
[00:05:56] the initiative, but the bet seems to be no longer on a quick breakthrough,
[00:06:00] but on a war of attrition, again on
[00:06:03] frosts. Last winter, Russian strikes
[00:06:06] systematically hit Ukrainian energy and
[00:06:09] heat supply. People were left without electricity, hundreds
[00:06:12] of thousands without heating and hot water. On the coldest
[00:06:16] days, the temperature dropped below -20. Now
[00:06:20] Russia is approaching a new winter campaign with new
[00:06:24] weapons. Meduza military observer Dmitry Kuznets notes:
[00:06:27] Russian engineers have equipped new versions of
[00:06:30] Geraniums with turbojet
[00:06:34] engines. We are talking about Geranium-4 and Geranium
[00:06:38] 5. Russia was able to quickly not only
[00:06:41] develop, but also begin mass production of jet
[00:06:45] drones, which are armed with a turbojet engine of
[00:06:48] Chinese production,
[00:06:50] a small one, their speed is two or three times greater
[00:06:54] than that of piston drones, which allows them to almost completely
[00:06:58] avoid being hit by interceptor drones, which
[00:07:00] have an electric engine and a speed comparable to
[00:07:04] the speed of Geranium 2, that is, much less than that of
[00:07:07] Russian jet drones, so naturally, all
[00:07:11] this... is not given to the Russian
[00:07:14] army for free, but there are compromises, well, firstly, the
[00:07:18] range and the weight of the payload that these
[00:07:22] drones carry is less than that of Geranium 2, but the most important thing, of course, is the
[00:07:25] price. And you can see, since the engines
[00:07:29] for Geranium 2 and for - these new
[00:07:32] jet Geraniums 4 and 5, uh, they are
[00:07:35] quite civilian and Chinese-made, you can look at
[00:07:39] Chinese marketplaces for the price history of these
[00:07:43] engines, jet engines cost approximately 10 times more, an order of magnitude more
[00:07:47] than piston engines, accordingly, the same
[00:07:50] result that the Russian army achieved a year ago, now
[00:07:53] costs significantly more, I won't pretend to say exactly how much, of course,
[00:07:57] the engine is not the only component, but
[00:08:00] possibly even the most expensive, so it all becomes more expensive, we see this
[00:08:04] from the state of the Russian budget, from military spending that Russia
[00:08:07] was going to cut this year, instead
[00:08:10] they grew quite sharply, reaching 10. 10%
[00:08:13] of GDP, but Ukraine also has something to answer with, after
[00:08:16] drone attacks, Russian companies literally have to
[00:08:20] close themselves off from the sky. Wildberries decided to spend,
[00:08:23] almost half a million square meters of galvanized mesh for
[00:08:27] eight regions, this is an area of about 67
[00:08:30] football fields. According to the calculations of The Bell publication, the costs
[00:08:33] will range from 74 to 227 million
[00:08:37] rubles. And it seems this is just the beginning, if the warehouses
[00:08:41] of the marketplace can be covered with a net, then with
[00:08:43] oil refineries everything is much more complicated, here
[00:08:47] it is necessary to protect tanks, installations,
[00:08:50] pipelines, that is, objects where a drone
[00:08:53] hit can turn into a fire and a production
[00:08:56] shutdown. Russian refineries are already using
[00:08:59] metal frames, nets, protective mats and other
[00:09:03] structures, but how effective such a web is truly
[00:09:06] capable of stopping a drone, the most
[00:09:09] effective method of passive defense, that is, active defense. All kinds
[00:09:13] of air defense systems, and there is passive defense, that is,
[00:09:16] physical, physical shelter, into which this
[00:09:19] equipment is tried to be hidden, drones
[00:09:23] indeed have a big drawback, they have a small warhead,
[00:09:27] low speed, so due to kinetic energy they also cannot penetrate
[00:09:30] all kinds of obstacles unlike missiles, and these
[00:09:33] nets, especially grids, are quite effective
[00:09:37] against these drones, at least they can make these attacks more expensive in
[00:09:41] order to hit -
[00:10:14] a wave of strikes on energy, and Kyiv's main deficit today is not launchers or radars, but
[00:10:18] interceptor missiles, especially for Patriot,
[00:10:21] this is one of the few systems capable of dealing with...
[00:10:55] Russia can launch missiles and drones in waves, Ukraine is forced
[00:10:59] to respond with expensive interceptors, so the main
[00:11:02] question this winter is whether Ukraine will have enough missiles to
[00:11:05] withstand the Russian air campaign, and whether Europe
[00:11:09] can replenish supplies faster than Moscow depletes them. We discussed
[00:11:12] this with military analyst
[00:11:16] Julian Röpcke from BILD systems. Julian,
[00:11:18] hello.
[00:12:29] Yes, absolutely. Recently, we witnessed how classic
[00:12:32] interceptor drones, mainly P-1 San and
[00:12:36] Stink from two Ukrainian companies, provided about
[00:12:39] 90% of intercepts over Ukraine. They are no longer
[00:12:43] effective, they no longer work, because the maximum
[00:12:46] flight altitude of the Geran V missile, which you
[00:12:49] mentioned, as well as Bandera's, is about
[00:12:52] 6 km, and 6 km... is approximately
[00:12:56] 2 km more than interceptor missiles can
[00:12:58] overcome. For this reason, Ukraine
[00:13:02] now has a big problem. President Zelensky just
[00:13:05] announced that funds have been allocated for the production of new
[00:13:09] jet interceptor drones, but the work is not yet
[00:13:12] completed. And, as I recently saw, Ukraine now
[00:13:16] has to wait until the very last minute until the drone descends,
[00:13:20] say, to an altitude of 2-3 km, and
[00:13:23] then use it.
[00:14:25] Of course, there are also different levels of countermeasures. We have
[00:14:28] mobile groups with Browning machine guns and other
[00:14:31] machine guns. An intercept group, portable anti-aircraft
[00:14:34] missile systems, and also several remaining
[00:14:37] interceptors, mainly German IRIS-T. All
[00:14:41] these echelons work together, but now their
[00:14:44] effectiveness, as I said, has decreased from
[00:14:46] 90% to significantly below
[00:14:49] 50%.
[00:14:56] will we see strikes with long-range weapons, the same Flamingo missiles,
[00:14:59] on military targets deep in Russia, right up to
[00:15:03] Moscow, in the near future?
[00:15:04] Москвы.
[00:15:08] It's important to note that Flamingo is not a missile, it's a cruise missile,
[00:15:11] so it's very large, very slow, and we've already seen that
[00:15:15] it can be intercepted, and some missiles don't even reach
[00:15:18] their target. That is, if the Ukrainians launch two such
[00:15:21] missiles, one hits the factory, and the other only 500
[00:15:25] meters from it, so it's not an optimal solution. It should also
[00:15:29] be remembered that we are at a very early stage of Flamingo's
[00:15:32] development, this is FP-5, but now,
[00:15:35] as far as I understand, Ukraine is developing.
[00:15:47] As far as I've heard, I just learned about this at a weapons exhibition in
[00:15:50] Denmark, where the company Firepoint was present, they
[00:15:53] believe that it will only be a couple of months until these
[00:15:56] missiles are deployed, that is, 3 to 6 months, when they will be deployed, they will certainly
[00:16:00] be used, and it will be much more difficult for Russia to
[00:16:04] intercept them, because ... will be deployed not far from Moscow and other major cities, but
[00:16:25] there are many other military targets, for example,
[00:16:29] Millerovo airbase and many other airbases that
[00:16:32] will then be within reach of Ukrainian.
[00:16:36] украинских.
[00:17:07] 500 km per month, meaning every 2
[00:17:10] months Russia captured the territory of Berlin in
[00:17:14] Ukraine, now this figure has dropped to less than
[00:17:18] 30%. So, now we see that Russia
[00:17:22] sometimes captures 200 km per month, sometimes only
[00:17:25] 90. And I think that this month we will see zero
[00:17:29] square kilometers captured, which means that
[00:17:33] Russia is advancing in some areas, but Ukraine, as you
[00:17:36] said, about Operation Vivaldi, is advancing in
[00:17:39] others. This means that now it's a zero-sum
[00:17:43] game. And this really shows
[00:17:46] the dilemma Putin is in. He has air
[00:17:49] superiority to terrorize the Ukrainian population, but he
[00:17:53] does not have the military power, human resources, or
[00:17:56] weapons to advance on the front line. So I'm
[00:17:59] still quite optimistic about the current
[00:18:03] situation. If Russia mobilizes another, say,
[00:18:07] 600.
[00:20:07] there will be no electricity or heating in all of Kherson,
[00:20:11] not only in the city, but also in the entire region, which means that they
[00:20:14] are strongly urging more than 60,000 people to
[00:20:18] evacuate and move to central Ukraine, but,
[00:20:22] as far as I know, Mr. Zelensky also said that
[00:20:25] next winter in Ukraine will be very cold. Russia
[00:20:29] now has a big advantage, it's not a military
[00:20:32] advantage, but an advantage against the civilian population
[00:20:35] of Ukraine. they will cut off most of
[00:20:39] the railway communication in Ukraine next winter, they
[00:20:42] will cut off most of the energy and heat supply next
[00:20:46] winter, because they have been doing this for the whole year, probably this...
[00:20:59] And we'll see if Ukraine can handle it. In the past,
[00:21:02] they were very strong. People did not threaten the government or put
[00:21:06] pressure on it to end the war. And this
[00:21:10] is Russia's goal, but there is a slow shift, more and
[00:21:13] more people are positive about negotiations on Russia's terms,
[00:21:17] of course. And I'm afraid that this dynamic will continue.
[00:21:50] Nothing essentially changed. I mean,
[00:21:53] Mr. Kushner stated very clearly in an interview: everything is
[00:21:56] ready, the deal is ready. Ukraine just needs to
[00:21:59] surrender. That is, they need to withdraw troops, they
[00:22:03] need to withdraw troops from the territory of more than 5.2
[00:22:06] kilometers of Donbas. And everyone in Moscow, at least,
[00:22:10] knows, although I think the Trump administration apparently doesn't know, that
[00:22:13] this will be the end for Ukraine. If the Ukrainian army leaves the
[00:22:17] territory it has been defending for 12 years.
[00:22:50] build its so-called buffer zone, that is, a zone of
[00:22:53] control 30 km deep into Ukraine,
[00:22:56] which stretches from Kharkiv through Sumy to Chernihiv and
[00:23:00] the Belarusian border. At the same time, we see that Zaporizhzhia
[00:23:03] is under strong military pressure. We see how
[00:23:06] Russia is attacking civilians around the clock in the city of
[00:23:10] Zaporizhzhia itself, where 600,000 people live. I
[00:23:13] mean, who is so naive as to believe Moscow that it only needs
[00:23:17] Donbas, then there will be peace. No, everyone knows that
[00:23:21] if they capture the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk
[00:23:24] regions, they will use these new positions to launch
[00:23:28] new attacks to then capture even more Ukrainian
[00:23:31] territory.
[00:23:38] My guest was German military
[00:23:41] analyst Julian
[00:23:42] Röpcke.
[00:23:47] Trade unions, autumn elections. Spring elections, what's
[00:23:51] the difference, these elections are not needed at all, who will choose whom, how do you know what kind
[00:23:53] of people they are, we choose blindly, do we know who we are choosing,
[00:23:57] we need a black, yellow and white flag of the Russian Empire, we need a different
[00:24:01] name for the state, a different name for your position, supreme
[00:24:04] ruler, if you don't want emperor, let's have supreme
[00:24:08] ruler, although Emperor Vladimir I
[00:24:11] would sound good, this is
[00:24:14] Vladimir Zhirinovsky, August 2014,
[00:24:17] after the annexation of
[00:24:20] Crimea, he proposed banning political parties and switching to
[00:24:24] an elected monarchy, according to his idea, several
[00:24:27] thousand best people should choose the head of state.
[00:24:30] Stop shaking the country for 6 months, every
[00:24:34] 6 years, hairdressers, models,
[00:24:37] loggers, are going to the elections, we have
[00:24:40] a constitutional body, the State Council, this is the State
[00:24:44] Council, gather the best people of the country there, the best scientists,
[00:24:48] deputies, ministers, governors. Let them decide who
[00:24:52] will be the head of state, this can
[00:24:54] be done in 15 minutes, 20 minutes, an hour, two hours, but
[00:24:58] in one day. Zhirinovsky is no longer here, but the voting
[00:25:02] remains. On September 20, Russia will get a new composition of the
[00:25:05] State Duma. These are the first parliamentary elections after the start
[00:25:09] of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Systemic parties
[00:25:12] are participating in the election campaign, the real anti-war
[00:25:16] opposition is not allowed to participate in the elections. One can call this
[00:25:19] elections. One can call it an electoral procedure or a special operation of
[00:25:23] the Kremlin with a very predictable result, at
[00:25:26] least, artificial intelligence has already counted the votes and
[00:25:29] knows who won. Alice, how did
[00:25:33] the elections go in September 2026?
[00:25:35] United Russia received
[00:25:39] a constitutional majority in the State Duma, 324
[00:25:42] seats. In the regions, the incumbent governors won, for example,
[00:25:46] Kondratyev in Krasnodar Krai, Minnikhanov in Tatarstan.
[00:25:50] Alice, when are the elections in 2026?
[00:25:53] года?
[00:25:56] The State Duma elections will be held from September 18 to 20,
[00:25:59] unified voting day on the 20th.
[00:26:25] But a simple question arises: why does the Kremlin even need this ritual, especially since the electoral procedure is not cheap, about 27 billion rubles or 33 million US dollars have been allocated from the treasury for the preparation and conduct of elections for deputies of the ninth convocation of the State Duma.
[00:26:29] You could ask, if everything is already predictable, why spend
[00:26:33] such money? Why not direct it to the war? But
[00:26:37] the Kremlin is not abandoning elections. Moreover, Vladimir
[00:26:40] Putin delivered a video address 2 days before
[00:26:43] the start of voting in the State Duma elections. He linked them to
[00:26:46] the support of Russian military personnel participating in
[00:26:49] the war against Ukraine. I am sure that our
[00:26:53] soldiers, officers will also take
[00:26:56] the most active part in the voting.
[00:27:00] и наши солдаты, офицеры.
[00:27:33] this is also a responsibility, a contribution to strengthening the country.
[00:27:37] Why did Putin decide to include the topic of a war unpopular among the population
[00:27:40] in his address to voters. There is at
[00:27:43] least one version: the special military operation gave rise to a new
[00:27:47] political category: combat
[00:27:50] veterans. As early as February 2024, Putin
[00:27:53] declared them the true elite
[00:27:56] and said it was time for them to move into power, into
[00:27:59] public administration, business and state companies. At the same time,
[00:28:03] the "Time of Heroes" program was launched.
[00:28:07] Now these heroes, some of whom are awaiting trial in
[00:28:10] The Hague, are gradually moving from the front to
[00:28:13] Okhotny Ryad. Yesterday they were fighting, today they are in the team
[00:28:17] of the party in power, tomorrow the parliamentary tribune. Alexey
[00:28:20] Alexandrov tells about a war participant and
[00:28:23] a candidate on the federal list of United Russia. He is only
[00:28:27] 29, and he has already managed, it turns out, at 24,
[00:28:31] to participate in the occupation.
[00:28:51] use of chemical weapons in Ukraine. But let's return to
[00:28:55] Golovin. It is known that he lost a leg in the battles for
[00:28:59] Mariupol. Already in October of that year, he was awarded the title of Hero of Russia. The fact is
[00:29:02] that Golovin became one of the most favorite heroes of Russian propaganda
[00:29:06] among military personnel. He was remembered, among other things, thanks to a red backpack
[00:29:10] that stood out from the military camouflage. In an interview, Golovin
[00:29:13] later said that his fellow soldiers simply
[00:29:17] stole this backpack from one of the destroyed Ukrainian houses in the fighting.
[00:29:21] Why was the backpack red? Guys, well, my fighters,
[00:29:24] comrades in arms, found it,
[00:29:27] well, somewhere in one of the residential premises and
[00:29:29] accordingly, handed it to me, Vladislav. The press
[00:29:33] calls Golovin Putin's favorite, We wish you health, Comrade Supreme
[00:29:37] Commander, they met several times,
[00:29:40] thank you, Golovin is literally the new Russian
[00:29:44] military-political elite, these are people who acquired their
[00:29:47] status solely thanks to the war against
[00:29:50] Ukraine. The United Russia party nominates
[00:29:53] 76 participants in the invasion of
[00:29:56] Ukraine to the State Duma. War participants appear on the lists of
[00:30:00] other factions, for example, the LDPR. In 2026,
[00:30:03] it announced a mass nomination of candidates with
[00:30:06] special military operation status. The authorities need elections, but do
[00:30:10] the voters themselves need them? This is a report by a correspondent from Radio
[00:30:14] Liberty.
[00:30:20] Every 5 years in Russia there are parliamentary elections and
[00:30:23] the results are always the same. This is already a custom.
[00:30:27] A tradition, I would say,
[00:30:29] a ritual. It seems that Russians
[00:30:33] are already tired of this movie. In 2026, half of those surveyed by VCIOM
[00:30:37] don't even know when they will go to the polls. At the same time, the outcome of these
[00:30:40] elections is already known to almost everyone. 75%
[00:30:44] in the same VCIOM poll expect United Russia to
[00:30:47] win, although the sentiment in banned social networks
[00:30:51] towards current and future leaders
[00:30:53] is unequivocal. Look what they
[00:30:56] are doing, my hands are itching to...