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20260920 070000 UTC
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[00:00:24] Hello, this is a special broadcast about the elections to the State Duma of Russia. Voting is
[00:00:27] scheduled for the eighteenth,
[00:00:30] 20th of September. The main conditions of this campaign are already
[00:00:33] known. The federal list of Yabloko - the only party that
[00:00:37] opposes the war - has been removed from the elections. The independent
[00:00:40] observer movement Golos has ceased its work. Russia has not invited
[00:00:44] OSCE observers. And the bureau itself speaks of restrictions
[00:00:47] on political participation, persecution of opponents, and weakening of public
[00:00:51] control. Voting will take place in the occupied territories
[00:00:55] of Ukraine. Kyiv and international organizations consider it
[00:00:58] illegal. And this is the context without which it is impossible
[00:01:02] to talk about the results, so we are interested not only in who
[00:01:05] will be on the ballot and who will be declared victorious. It is important to understand what this
[00:01:09] procedure should show to Russian society, to the elites,
[00:01:13] to the outside world, and what decisions will follow after it. We
[00:01:16] will start with this question. We asked politicians, researchers,
[00:01:20] and former observers, if the outcome seems predictable, then
[00:01:24] why is it still important to follow these elections, this
[00:01:28] voting. This is a time of great
[00:01:32] turbulence for these authorities, although they have cleared the field
[00:01:35] so much that I don't even understand how anyone
[00:01:38] can be missed here, how someone
[00:01:42] who doesn't suit the Kremlin can slip through. Any elections to the State
[00:01:45] Duma, unlike presidential ones, so-called elections, are
[00:01:49] still the establishment of a new balance. Different
[00:01:53] groups try to include their people in the lists
[00:01:56] through different factions of one large ruling party,
[00:02:00] which are called United Russia, KPRF, LDPR, New
[00:02:03] People. That is, for the authorities, in a functional sense, it is
[00:02:07] a test of loyalty and effectiveness, the ability
[00:02:11] of regional elites to control
[00:02:13] the situation on the ground. There are regions, of course, where they will draw whatever they
[00:02:16] want, especially without opposition. There are regions
[00:02:19] where they won't draw whatever they want, even, well, there won't even be such an
[00:02:23] order. It is obvious that the authorities, of course, have all the
[00:02:26] opportunities to falsify the elections, to
[00:02:30] draw the desired result. But things are smooth on paper,
[00:02:34] but they often forget about the pitfalls, because in this
[00:02:38] case, the authorities may face strong
[00:02:41] social protest, as there was, for example, in 2011-2012.
[00:02:45] Well, the answers are different, but they have a common idea: the percentages that the
[00:02:49] CEC announces are not the only result of the elections. The admitted
[00:02:53] candidates, the campaign themes, people's behavior, and
[00:02:56] the decisions that will be made after the voting also matter.
[00:03:00] But for the voter, a practical question remains: what to do with
[00:03:03] the ballot if he does not believe in an honest count? My colleague Andrey
[00:03:07] Tsyganov has collected the main proposals and initiatives of the Russian opposition. He is
[00:03:10] with us in the studio. Andrey, hello. Hello. Andrey, so what does the Russian
[00:03:14] opposition, those politicians who have left the country, propose to do? Well,
[00:03:18] you know, the general idea, if we simplify it strongly, comes down to the fact that despite
[00:03:21] everything, you need to go and vote, although, as the oppositionists admit, there is no pleasant
[00:03:25] choice in these elections.
[00:03:28] Well, before I tell you about the strategies, I will briefly remind you why
[00:03:32] the opposition leaders, as one, say that one must go to the polling stations,
[00:03:35] literally, holding one's nose. This is a quote. At least in what
[00:03:39] concerns the war, all parties that have a chance to enter the Duma
[00:03:43] are maximally similar. United Russia, well, everything is clear here,
[00:03:46] absolute support for the so-called SVO. In addition, it is from the ruling
[00:03:50] party that direct participants in the war, among others, go to the elections,
[00:03:54] the so-called veterans and war correspondents. I had such a
[00:03:57] feeling, as if life itself was preparing
[00:04:00] us for the SVO, the whole country,
[00:04:04] Lord, life, they were leading to the fact that
[00:04:08] we would have to fight so hard.
[00:04:11] Let's move on, KPRF. According to the communists, Russia is fighting
[00:04:15] in Ukraine, no more, no less, with NATO fascism and American
[00:04:18] hegemonism. Without the Russian core, our
[00:04:22] power will not stand, just as Ukraine did not stand,
[00:04:26] having turned into a Nazi one. In the end,
[00:04:29] today we are obliged to defeat NATO
[00:04:33] fascism and Banderaism.
[00:04:35] LDPR, Leonid Slutsky and the faction deputies are categorically against
[00:04:39] any peace negotiations until Russian troops reach
[00:04:42] Odesa. We will achieve
[00:04:45] our main goal in the very foreseeable future,
[00:04:49] the solution of our main task, a great
[00:04:52] victory. Just Russia, they have on their agenda
[00:04:55] a full mobilization of society and the economy.
[00:04:58] The FBK calls for voting for any
[00:05:43] party except United Russia, and suggests treating the elections themselves
[00:05:46] as the only remaining protest event in
[00:05:50] Russia. Despite all the reservations, the elections
[00:05:53] are dishonest, unfree, falsified, dirty and unrelated
[00:05:55] to elections, these are still "elections" in quotes.
[00:05:59] Nevertheless, even "elections" in quotes remain
[00:06:03] the only permitted protest event in Russia.
[00:06:06] The logic of the FBK: several parties in the Duma are better than
[00:06:09] one, there is a greater chance that at some opportune moment, the conditional Mironov
[00:06:13] or Zyuganov will suddenly refuse to vote as the Kremlin
[00:06:16] needs. By no means, God forbid, I do not call on you
[00:06:19] to vote for the KPRF, nor for the New People, nor for the
[00:06:23] LDPR, I only call on you to vote against United
[00:06:27] Russia. But there is no such line on the ballot against United Russia,
[00:06:30] therefore we take and make voting for these
[00:06:33] three disgusting parties a vote against United Russia. In
[00:06:37] single-mandate districts, the FBK proposes smart voting.
[00:06:40] The candidate with the highest chances of defeating
[00:06:44] the United Russia member. I'll say right away, this candidate
[00:06:47] will not be an angel, he will not even be simply good,
[00:06:50] but it does not matter to us who he is, we want to upset the plans
[00:06:54] of the Kremlin, they expect that their candidates from
[00:06:58] United Russia will win, but someone else wins. United Russia members
[00:07:01] are sad, and we are happy about it. Maxim Katz also
[00:07:05] campaigns for participation in voting. He created a website with a detailed analysis
[00:07:09] of candidates and parties. I studied each candidate myself
[00:07:12] and asked for advice from people who understand
[00:07:16] the relevant regions and parties, and
[00:07:19] then I wrote everything related to
[00:07:22] politics myself, from the first to the last letter. Descriptions
[00:07:26] of each candidate, each party and later, analysis of the situation in
[00:07:30] the districts, and my reasoned recommendation on who
[00:07:34] to vote for. Well, that is, in some sense, it is also smart
[00:07:37] voting. On his website, Katz suggests studying candidates and
[00:07:40] making a conscious choice, and not just against United Russia, and promises to give
[00:07:44] his own recommendations on where and for whom to vote. Yes, to choose
[00:07:48] without any pleasure from dubious personalities, mostly,
[00:07:52] you will have to. But refusing to choose only plays into the hands of the system.
[00:07:55] Go to my website, compare the positions
[00:07:59] of the nominated politicians, look at what is happening in your
[00:08:02] districts, think about how to cast your vote.
[00:08:05] Mikhail Khodorkovsky is traditionally against smart voting as
[00:08:09] such, saying that for him the main thing is an anti-war stance
[00:08:12] can change something. We can only change it if Ukraine wins. To believe that of the candidate, and not just his chances against United Russia. It is extremely
[00:08:16] dangerous to tell people that let's
[00:08:19] vote against this party of war, but for
[00:08:22] another party of war. But Khodorkovsky promises to present his
[00:08:26] own voting strategy at the last moment before the elections. Garry
[00:08:29] Kasparov has also long called for a boycott of the elections. He believes
[00:08:33] that something can only be changed in Russia
[00:08:37] we in Ukraine.
[00:10:12] It's clear, for any party except United Russia,
[00:10:16] and then let each citizen
[00:10:19] decide for themselves which box to mark on the ballot,
[00:10:23] but the main thing is that it should not be United Russia.
[00:10:25] Elections are the last, the last legal
[00:10:28] opportunity to express one's position, coming to the elections cannot
[00:10:32] be considered as, I don't know,
[00:10:34] some kind of sabotage, yes,
[00:10:38] or some kind of crime, and so on,
[00:10:42] so I don't know, honestly, I understand that
[00:10:45] the Russian repressive machine is cunning enough to
[00:10:49] come up with, yes, how these people can be charged under some article, but to me
[00:10:52] it seems , well, it seems extremely difficult.
[00:10:56] Of course, each person makes their own decision, yes, this is our
[00:11:00] initiative, which we promote to
[00:11:03] the masses, if you are not
[00:11:06] afraid, if you believe that everything will be
[00:11:10] okay, nothing will happen to you, which
[00:11:13] should not happen in theory, then, of course, come. If you see
[00:11:17] any risks in this, then of course, no one
[00:11:20] will force anyone, everything is left
[00:11:22] to the conscience of the person who
[00:11:26] makes the decision. And I will add that I also asked Katerina Keltau
[00:11:29] whether the Peaceful Russia party calls on residents of the occupied
[00:11:32] territories of Ukraine to come to the polling stations at noon. Katerina
[00:11:35] said that this was not separately discussed by the organizers, but those who wish
[00:11:39] can take part in the action there.
[00:11:43] We continue our broadcast. Let's talk about why these
[00:11:46] elections, which will be held in September, are important and for whom they are important in the first
[00:11:50] place. Political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky is with us in the studio. Ivan,
[00:11:53] hello. Good afternoon, thank you for the invitation, thank you for finding
[00:11:56] time, and Dmitry Oreshkin is with us from the Riga studio. Dmitry Borisych,
[00:12:00] hello.
[00:12:03] Good afternoon, hello, thank you very much for finding time to talk about
[00:12:07] this. I would like to ask Ivan, you first, why are these
[00:12:10] elections important in Russia, what do you think? Well, there are
[00:12:14] several reasons. First of all, I am against
[00:12:18] calling this elections. I always say "special electoral
[00:12:21] operation". Accordingly, the Kremlin...
[00:14:25] The elections, in my opinion, are controlled not by Kremlin administrators or
[00:14:29] political strategists, as Sergei Kiriyenko and his ilk call them, but
[00:14:32] directly by the special services, the FSB. The FSB was officially
[00:14:35] appointed as curators of these elections at meetings in the Kremlin
[00:14:39] around spring of this year. And the question is
[00:14:42] who will retain control over domestic politics after these
[00:14:46] elections? This is a fundamental point, because after
[00:14:50] 2012, gradually the Kremlin returned itself.
[00:14:53] Ivan said that
[00:15:26] this is a demonstration of loyalty,
[00:15:29] but it
[00:15:31] is also a message from above that everything is in
[00:15:35] order in the country, elections are being held.
[00:17:07] But they will draw, conditionally, it actually got 15 and
[00:17:11] they will have to add up to 60 or it actually got 50
[00:17:15] they will have to add up to 60. In this case, it
[00:17:18] is important,
[00:17:20] it is important, of course, to add painless votes across
[00:17:23] the country. Painless means not
[00:17:26] traumatizing public consciousness, not causing public
[00:17:30] protests, bewilderment, irritation. One can add
[00:17:34] 15-20%, which means, accordingly, if...
[00:18:07] there is simply a vulgar qualification of falsification, and
[00:18:11] there is administrative pressure on, say, public sector employees
[00:18:14] who will come and vote electronically so as
[00:18:18] not to spoil relations with their boss. It is absolutely irrelevant
[00:18:22] that they might even be against it, but nobody wants to lose their job,
[00:18:25] nobody wants problems with their boss either. They will come and vote, and
[00:18:29] we will be forced to consider this as
[00:18:32] a genuine expression of will, because it does not mean that the result is fabricated,
[00:18:35] it means that people...
[00:19:37] has prepared even more thoroughly than in previous
[00:19:40] years. There will be no observers, in fact, at all,
[00:19:44] the opportunities for observing the elections are minimized
[00:19:48] almost to zero, electronic voting,
[00:19:51] uncontrolled by anyone and in any way, allows
[00:19:54] simply by pressing a few buttons to
[00:19:57] change the official
[00:19:59] results. The situation
[00:20:02] of war and repression, which is intensifying every
[00:20:06] year, will lead to... because the price of protest
[00:20:09] will be so high that most likely there will be no protests.
[00:20:13] The question is only how, but this is no longer about the so-called
[00:20:17] elections themselves, it's about what will happen after them,
[00:20:20] how it will be legitimized. In 2011, the whole society
[00:20:24] believed that the elections were totally falsified, regardless of
[00:20:28] whether people supported the authorities or not, even those who
[00:20:31] supported them believed that, in general, it was falsified and they did the right
[00:20:35] thing, because these damned... national
[00:20:38] traitors, you know, tried to prevent Vladimir Vladimirovich
[00:20:42] Putin from returning to the presidency to save
[00:20:44] the country. And accordingly, now
[00:20:47] the story is roughly about the same thing: who will
[00:20:51] believe these final results or not. This is about the interpretation
[00:20:54] of the results of these so-called elections. A fairly active
[00:20:58] struggle will take place over this, and the story
[00:21:01] with Yabloko, no, it actually could
[00:21:04] have significantly impacted this potentially if
[00:21:07] the pseudo-electoral campaign in support of Yabloko
[00:21:10] had grown into a campaign for peace, because we haven't mentioned
[00:21:14] another important point, we haven't said that this is
[00:21:17] still... some kind of expression of attitude towards the war that
[00:21:21] Russia continues to wage against Ukraine, Yabloko's attempt
[00:21:24] to register, and
[00:21:28] those who call themselves oppositionists
[00:21:31] outside Russia to support Yabloko, this
[00:21:35] was an attempt to turn the pseudo-elections, the Kremlin's
[00:21:39] spectacle, into a real discussion
[00:21:42] about whether to stop the war at last. Yabloko
[00:21:45] could have become a symbol of the struggle against the war, but Yabloko itself...
[00:21:49] unfortunately, is not, in the
[00:21:52] understanding, let's say, objectively, a truly
[00:21:55] anti-war party, because their position is to equate
[00:21:58] the victim and the aggressor, that is, Russia and
[00:22:02] Ukraine in their positions. Grigory
[00:22:06] Yavlinsky's statements about the war
[00:22:09] rather say, "Let's finally all sit down and
[00:22:13] agree." Overall, they can
[00:22:17] fit into the Kremlin's narrative in this sense.
[00:23:50] Don't be mistaken, sitting in your own information bubble, those who
[00:23:54] support Putin, there are many of them, they will vote for him.
[00:23:57] Secondly, there is a falsification overlay
[00:24:00] that will add all this on top. So,
[00:24:04] the talk that if everyone suddenly doesn't
[00:24:08] show up, then the elections will collapse, is a simple
[00:24:11] self-deception. The majority of the opposition or,
[00:24:14] let's say, negatively critical electorate will not go to these
[00:24:18] elections...
[00:24:50] I've said 1,500
[00:24:53] times that a spoiled ballot is counted, unlike a
[00:24:56] ballot that has been taken away. A ballot that has been taken away is
[00:25:00] simply zero, because votes are counted from
[00:25:04] ballots found in ballot boxes.
[00:25:07] I think that those who come
[00:25:10] to spoil ballots are unlikely to make up more than
[00:25:13] 5%. Therefore, even if
[00:25:16] they made up 5%, since they are not a legal party,
[00:25:20] their votes will be distributed among
[00:25:23] the winners, that is, if, say,
[00:25:26] 5% of voters spoil
[00:25:29] their ballots, then about 40% of
[00:25:33] these 5% will eventually go into
[00:25:36] United Russia's piggy bank. In presidential elections
[00:25:39] it's not like that, they don't split votes, there's one winner, so there's
[00:25:43] a functional reason to invalidate
[00:25:46] the ballot, that way you add another one...
[00:27:02] There are no delusions here, but in this
[00:27:05] way, you can slightly, very
[00:27:09] little, but spoil the mood of those who
[00:27:12] organize this procedure of the electoral ritual.
[00:27:15] Dmitry Borisovich, thank you. Ivan, what do you think
[00:27:18] , after all, what concept, in your opinion, what would you do? I am sure
[00:27:22] that no, none of the options listed by anyone from
[00:27:26] the representatives of those who consider themselves opposition
[00:27:30] outside Russia is an option.
[00:29:32] No, what will influence is whether this message, which has almost
[00:29:36] faded away now, of the struggle
[00:29:39] for peace, which Yabloko raised when
[00:29:42] it tried to enter these elections and register, will be preserved.
[00:29:45] If the population sees that there is some
[00:29:48] minimal chance to end the war, no, I don't believe
[00:29:52] Russian sociology, but I agree with the fact that the majority, more than half
[00:29:56] of the Russian population, for various reasons, wants the war to
[00:29:59] end. No, maybe they want it to end with Russia's victory,
[00:30:03] but one way or another, as quickly as possible.
[00:30:06] So, as soon as the population sees this minimal
[00:30:09] opportunity, it will immediately go to this point, as it was with Yabloko,
[00:30:13] whose rating began to grow rapidly, even among those who
[00:30:17] had never heard of this party's name among
[00:30:20] young people. Accordingly, this is what
[00:30:23] we need to fight for, for this anti-war message to
[00:30:27] survive in some way, probably creating it in such a way,
[00:30:30] if there is a ritual from the side.