ERR — broadcast
20261012 183000 UTC
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[00:01:56] Stralla's world. Good evening.
[00:02:11] On Tuesday on television, the cyberattack has brought a lot
[00:02:14] of extra work for officials. How to get the situation under control,
[00:02:18] what kind of research is being done in applied universities, and why should
[00:02:21] high school students learn drone flying? We will also introduce
[00:02:25] Camel Kalle, a bride from Poland. See you at
[00:02:28] 6:45.
[00:10:59] In a moment, "Välisilm" begins, followed by the second part of the
[00:11:03] documentary "A Week Seen" about the cooperation between German and French
[00:11:06] leaders in the name of a safer
[00:11:09] Europe.
[00:11:49] Battalion was arrested in Russia on charges of intending to go
[00:11:52] and fight in Ukraine, and to top it off.
[00:12:45] wants to arrest Vladimir Putin, as you may remember. Donald Trump,
[00:12:49] however, wants to do business with him, and therefore, it is quite logical
[00:12:52] that last week Washington imposed sanctions on the Criminal
[00:12:56] Court and allowed Russian
[00:13:04] a diesel deal with Vladimir
[00:13:16] in Kyiv, where the mayor advises residents to temporarily leave the city.
[00:13:20] At the same time, exhausting battles are underway at the front
[00:13:23] for the last cities of Donbass.
[00:13:27] In Germany, a former head of foreign intelligence was arrested, suspected of
[00:13:31] treason. Eppend investigates how much damage he caused.
[00:13:34] Eppend.
[00:13:37] And in France, a student protest from a Parisian
[00:13:40] suburb has spread throughout the country. Astrid
[00:13:44] Kannel reports why
[00:13:46] young people took to the streets.
[00:13:49] So, on Friday, Donald Trump wrote on social media that he had
[00:13:53] successful talks with Vladimir Putin, and Russia will bring
[00:13:57] millions of tons of diesel to the market. Prices,
[00:14:00] he said, will fall to a record low and quickly.
[00:14:03] On Sunday, Trump added to this that an energy ceasefire
[00:14:07] between Ukraine and Russia would begin immediately.
[00:14:11] Only, Voladymer Zelensky heard about it only
[00:14:14] from the news, and a few hours later, Russia attacked power plants
[00:14:18] in Kyiv and Kharkiv. The Kremlin has not confirmed a ceasefire
[00:14:21] on its part. Trump's logic behind all this is
[00:14:25] simple: diesel is expensive because Ukraine is attacking Russian
[00:14:28] oil refineries, and that is, to put it mildly,
[00:14:31] half-truth. For the US, the diesel deal is
[00:14:35] a sharp U-turn. Since 2022,
[00:14:38] imports of Russian oil to America have been
[00:14:41] banned. Last September, Trump wrote to NATO
[00:14:44] allies, in his characteristic all caps,
[00:14:47] "STOP BUYING RUSSIAN OIL." This September,
[00:14:51] he signed a law requiring major buyers of Russian oil
[00:14:53] to pay up to 100% in tariffs,
[00:14:57] but now America itself is allowing Russian
[00:15:00] diesel to the market, and now let's
[00:15:03] see what part of Trump's story actually holds true,
[00:15:06] for example, that as recently as last year, Russia
[00:15:10] was the world's second largest diesel exporter after America,
[00:15:13] and every tenth barrel of diesel sold came
[00:15:16] from Russia. Western sanctions did not stop this sale, but redirected
[00:15:20] Russian oil to India and China. The Kremlin's business
[00:15:23] only started to decline rapidly when Ukrainian drones
[00:15:27] started taking out oil refineries one after another.
[00:15:30] This year, Russian oil refineries have burned on average every three
[00:15:34] days. Diesel production has fallen by almost three-
[00:15:38] thirds, and in July, Moscow for the first time in history
[00:15:41] banned diesel exports, but the root cause
[00:15:44] of the diesel crisis is still in the Persian Gulf. When the US and
[00:15:47] Israel attacked Iran at the end of February, Tehran responded by closing
[00:15:51] the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, about a
[00:15:54] fifth of the world's oil passed through there, and to this day,
[00:15:58] the Strait is only partially open. According to the International
[00:16:01] Energy Agency, the collapse of Middle Eastern exports left
[00:16:04] the fuel market without a reserve, and that's why the loss of Russian
[00:16:08] diesel was so painful. So the crisis still started
[00:16:11] here, Donald Trump started
[00:16:14] it with Israel, and it didn't start
[00:16:17] in Ukraine, but why then, according
[00:16:20] to Trump, is Ukraine actually to blame? Because
[00:16:24] obviously, Trump himself cannot be to blame, and he
[00:16:28] has no power over Iran. But at least he can try to give orders to Kyiv.
[00:16:32] On Friday, Trump again told Zelensky, do what you want with Russia, but
[00:16:35] stop attacking oil refineries. Trump himself is running
[00:16:39] out of time. In three weeks, he faces the true
[00:16:42] moment of truth for his second term,
[00:16:45] the midterm elections, and what do we see? Diesel prices
[00:16:48] in America have risen by 71% in a year.
[00:16:52] 74% of Americans are concerned
[00:16:55] about energy prices, and Trump's approval rating has fallen
[00:16:58] to 30%. This is the lowest level of his second
[00:17:01] term. So the master of the White House desperately
[00:17:04] needs good news, and here it comes:
[00:17:08] a diesel deal with Putin. Trump promises that with Russian diesel, fuel prices
[00:17:11] will fall quickly, but will
[00:17:14] they? The first shipment requested from Putin is 300,000
[00:17:18] tons. The American transport sector consumes
[00:17:21] nearly 400,000 tons of diesel per day. So
[00:17:25] Russian diesel will be burned in the US in less than 24 hours.
[00:17:28] Trump's own party is also against the diesel deal.
[00:17:32] Four Republican senators are already demanding, along with Democrats, that the White
[00:17:36] House halt the deal.
[00:17:58] and we continue in the studio with the economist from the Bank of Estonia, good evening,
[00:18:02] good evening. Well, how does this seem to you as an economist, is this
[00:18:05] just a display or is there really
[00:18:09] a calming effect on world oil markets from this
[00:18:19] so in the summer, Russia, a classic exporter of diesel
[00:18:23] and oil products, was forced to first cut off
[00:18:26] and limit exports, and secondly, to buy additional diesel fuel
[00:18:30] generated from the same oil it sold to India,
[00:18:34] bought from Asia. So, even sanctions might
[00:18:37] have worked better if their design had considered that diesel flows
[00:18:41] could reverse and that selling diesel fuel back to Russia
[00:18:44] should also be sanctioned, which, of course, was not
[00:18:48] implemented during the summer.
[00:18:51] In other words, does
[00:18:54] Putin actually have diesel to send
[00:18:57] to the USA? Essentially, in today's
[00:19:00] situation, figuratively speaking, he might have to buy a large part
[00:19:04] of that diesel from somewhere or make big
[00:19:07] compromises with
[00:19:11] the fact that, well, in diesel production, there is also this
[00:19:14] seasonality, and now they are switching from summer diesel to
[00:19:18] winter diesel, but this reorientation causes a lot of confusion
[00:19:21] in the already messy production in Russia, and that actually
[00:19:24] means that this diesel fuel will have to be sold to the world
[00:19:27] market at the expense of Russia's own people, and
[00:19:31] in reality, until the moment when Trump supposedly
[00:19:35] agreed on something with Putin regarding diesel purchases,
[00:19:38] the diesel fuel export ban was still in force in Russia,
[00:19:42] which would have been valid until the end of October,
[00:19:45] which was actually extended all the time. It is extremely
[00:19:47] difficult for Russia to sell this diesel fuel, so to speak,
[00:19:51] at the expense of its own people. The only relief is that
[00:19:55] Russia had elections two months before the midterm elections
[00:19:58] in the United States, so the moment of relief may be
[00:20:01] at hand for Putin, although there was no tension in the election
[00:20:05] results anyway. Well, why
[00:20:07] does Donald Trump need this Russian diesel
[00:20:11] so badly, politically? Well, it looks, to put it mildly,
[00:20:14] bad. It is certainly a very
[00:20:18] strange political move, even for American voters. Well,
[00:20:21] in a way, it's a litmus test that if, well, a few
[00:20:24] days before, the G7 leaders probably decided, also under pressure
[00:20:28] from the United States, to release additional fuel, diesel fuel,
[00:20:30] to the world market, albeit a little less than
[00:20:34] Russia promised. Then, when
[00:20:38] the six countries started selling their reserves, the price of diesel
[00:20:41] fuel in the United States did not fall as a result. Now, when the
[00:20:45] effect is a little greater, we are talking about cents here,
[00:20:48] and in all likelihood, this will not actually materialize,
[00:20:52] because, well, gas station
[00:20:56] prices are still 70, even up to 80%
[00:20:59] higher for diesel fuel. Of course, it should be noted that diesel
[00:21:03] fuel does not directly appeal to American voters, because in Europe,
[00:21:06] diesel fuel is used relatively two to three times
[00:21:09] more, meaning that more than half of our
[00:21:12] road transport runs on diesel, but in the United
[00:21:15] States, it's more like a fifth. Donald
[00:21:18] Trump's supporters include farmers
[00:21:22] and truck drivers, whom he often addresses directly.
[00:21:26] The price of diesel is important to them, isn't it? Yes, at the same time,
[00:21:29] if you think about it, the United States is still a diesel fuel
[00:21:33] exporter more than an importer, so I would say
[00:21:36] that it can be combined with some measure at the very
[00:21:40] last minute, and then say that actually, the real
[00:21:44] and crude trick is to ban diesel exports from the United States a week
[00:21:48] before the primaries. And if there was
[00:21:52] also some deal with Putin before that, well, then that
[00:21:55] would supposedly amplify it. But why would export
[00:21:59] restrictions not work particularly well for the United States
[00:22:01] is an interesting effect, that inevitably, when
[00:22:05] you refine oil, you get both gasoline and diesel fuel, and
[00:22:09] if you then start having a surplus of diesel fuel, you will also produce less gasoline,
[00:22:12] and as a result, there may be a paradoxical surplus of diesel fuel
[00:22:16] in the United States and a gasoline shortage, and that cannot be allowed
[00:22:20] to happen. Well, who is actually pushing
[00:22:23] up the price of diesel more, the US
[00:22:26] expedition, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, or
[00:22:30] still Ukraine's very successful strikes against Russian
[00:22:32] refineries? Both have their impact, and unfortunately, the world is
[00:22:36] a whole, and there's nothing to do if before, let's say,
[00:22:39] five years ago, the European Union bought about half of its diesel
[00:22:43] fuel from Russia, and now it has certainly fallen to
[00:22:46] essentially zero, then we hedged
[00:22:50] against abandoning Russia by buying more from the United
[00:22:53] States and the Persian Gulf region, so inevitably both these
[00:22:57] actions have an impact, but today, the Persian Gulf effect is
[00:23:00] more global and significantly greater, because it has actually
[00:23:04] removed about 3% to 5%
[00:23:06] of the world's oil market,
[00:23:10] creating a deficit, but what role do the
[00:23:14] Houthis play in this global fuel
[00:23:17] deficit, about whose heroic deeds we
[00:23:21] hear a lot in the news lately, the latest being the very tragic
[00:23:25] bombing of Arriadi Airport, where many
[00:23:28] people also died. It
[00:23:32] is true that terrorism can cause
[00:23:35] great damage with relatively small costs in the world, and
[00:23:39] well, if you think about energy trade, no oil or diesel
[00:23:42] tanker is a warship, and well, obviously, if risks arise, then
[00:23:46] the cost of insurance becomes very high, but purely economically and
[00:23:50] also purely humanly, it is not reasonable for these operators
[00:23:54] to pass through these dangerous areas. Well, in some cases, you can take
[00:23:57] a detour of two weeks and maybe
[00:24:00] go around another corner, but the fact is that it all
[00:24:04] leads to higher costs and higher risks, and that is
[00:24:07] actually reflected in both refining margins and
[00:24:11] crude oil prices. So that magical approximately $100
[00:24:14] per barrel price for oil is also the price of futures contracts;
[00:24:18] spot transactions are rather around $103 already, and that
[00:24:22] means that, well, in reality, we have created
[00:24:26] an additional deficit in the market, but it's not yet a disaster,
[00:24:29] because, well, from the world's oil reserves, we have consumed
[00:24:33] about six days of about 60 days of supply during
[00:24:36] the war that started this spring, so in reality,
[00:24:39] demand has also decreased under conditions of high prices,
[00:24:43] and well, those who have fallen into energy poverty are still
[00:24:51] The impact of the energy ceasefire announced by Washington
[00:24:54] has not yet been noticed in Kyiv. Mayor Vitali Klitschko
[00:24:57] is urging residents to temporarily leave the city, and exhausting
[00:25:01] battles are underway at the front Anton Alekseev
[00:25:04] continues from Ukraine. After the meeting of the US and Russian
[00:25:08] presidents in Alaska last year, Moscow started talking about some
[00:25:11] "spirit of Anchorage," referring to alleged secret agreements
[00:25:15] related to Russia's war against Ukraine. Over the past year, it seemed that
[00:25:19] the spirit of Anchorage
[00:25:22] had almost completely dissipated, but the diesel fuel deal brought it
[00:25:24] back to mind.
[00:25:28] from both sides: to restore the spirit of Anchorage, namely the spirit
[00:25:31] of Anchorage in energy form. The main meaning of this agreement is
[00:25:35] for Russia - to force
[00:25:38] US pressure on Ukraine so that Ukraine does not strike Russian
[00:25:41] oil refineries. Well, or to provoke a crisis, a systemic
[00:25:45] crisis in relations between the USA. Donald Trump yesterday announced
[00:25:48] energy savings. as a surprise to both Moscow and
[00:25:52] Kyiv. Volodymyr Zelensky immediately confirmed his readiness to stop
[00:25:55] attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure if Russia responds
[00:25:59] in kind. So far, Russia has purposefully and systematically
[00:26:02] destroyed Ukraine's energy facilities, trying to make
[00:26:05] the lives of residents of Ukrainian cities unbearable. Kyiv Mayor
[00:26:08] Vitali Klitschko urged residents to temporarily leave the city. How
[00:26:12] many people will follow his call is unknown. A and
[00:26:16] it's up to people's choice, and we can't say for sure that
[00:26:19] we insist that people leave their homes, because
[00:26:23] it's extremely difficult for people, after living so
[00:26:26] long, in conditions of active hostilities,
[00:26:29] to leave their home, their dwelling.
[00:27:19] 50 minutes. The reason for the delay is power outages and
[00:27:23] air raid alerts. During an air raid alert, the train stops and passengers are forced
[00:27:27] to leave
[00:27:27] the carriages.
[00:27:32] we stood for an hour and 12 minutes, that's before
[00:27:36] Kyiv, so we drove here, thank God, there was no evacuation,
[00:27:39] but it happens,
[00:27:40] what's happening
[00:27:45] on the railway once again shows that the war is increasingly affecting
[00:27:48] areas further away from the front line, while the front line itself
[00:27:51] hardly changes.
[00:27:52] You
[00:27:56] need to understand that these are all tactical offensive actions for now,
[00:28:00] which do not lead to
[00:28:03] a strategic result. On the other hand, of course, it's impossible not to conduct
[00:28:07] them, because that way you can even reach Kyiv, well, retreat. Currently,
[00:28:11] the most active battles are taking place in Donbas. Russia does not intend to abandon its
[00:28:14] plans to fully conquer Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which
[00:28:17] it already in 2022.
[00:28:32] to reform the troop command system by creating permanently operating
[00:28:36] corps instead of temporary troop groups, but at least in the Donbas there is
[00:28:40] troop movement. So instead of at
[00:28:43] that moment in time, let's say 2024, let
[00:28:47] it be that year, creating divisions based on strong
[00:28:50] brigades, in the next year uniting these
[00:28:54] divisions into corps that could take over
[00:28:57] the management of large directions,
[00:29:00] uh, large areas of territory. large directions, we are going our
[00:29:04] own strange way, although similar formations
[00:29:08] exist in many armies of the world, including the
[00:29:11] American and Russian,
[00:29:15] I don't know why we make these mistakes.
[00:29:18] It took the Russians 10 months to capture Bakhmut
[00:29:22] in 2023. it took over a year to conquer. How
[00:29:25] long it will take for the Russians to conquer Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, no one can
[00:29:29] say at the moment. These are the last major Donbas cities that are.
[00:29:34] it may happen that even if you send a million people, they will all
[00:29:36] die, and it may happen that you send significantly fewer
[00:29:40] people, but with a different tactic they will achieve
[00:29:44] a result, this is a very
[00:29:47] different nature of warfare, and this is interesting, because
[00:29:49] Europe, for example, does not understand this, and
[00:29:53] it continues to think that war, modern
[00:29:56] war, or the war of the future, what is happening now in Ukraine, will be
[00:30:00] like it was...
[00:30:04] Mistakes are paid for with human lives. Both Ukraine
[00:30:07] and Russia do not publish their casualty figures. According to the General Staff of Ukraine,
[00:30:11] Russia lost over 40,000 soldiers killed in the past month alone,
[00:30:14] without achieving any significant results. According to Taras Timut,
[00:30:17] what distinguishes Russia from European countries is precisely its attitude
[00:30:21] towards human losses.
[00:30:22] The
[00:30:27] value of human life, which is maximized
[00:30:31] in NATO countries, so they can
[00:30:34] calmly spend 10,000 people, 100,000 people to
[00:30:38] capture some country or territory, and for them it's
[00:30:41] nothing. I am not sure that many European countries
[00:30:45] are ready for the same steps, to sacrifice 100,000
[00:30:48] people.
[00:30:53] Germany's former intelligence chief August Hanning was arrested last week
[00:30:57] on suspicion of espionage and treason. If you.