ESPRESO — broadcast
20260806 030000 UTC
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[00:00:00] 20 missiles per year, this is based on the example of 2025, and
[00:00:03] this is approximately 50-60
[00:00:06] missiles per month, meaning the enemy has over
[00:00:09] a hundred. Lockheed Martin 50-60, so even if
[00:00:13] the US and,
[00:00:16] at the direction of the Ukrainian president, were to transfer
[00:00:19] all the missiles they produce, it wouldn't be
[00:00:23] enough for us, and
[00:00:26] therefore, if there are any additional ones,
[00:00:30] the president spoke about this, the US representative
[00:00:33] to NATO spoke about this, and the sources are the current
[00:00:37] production, meaning the US can transfer some part of the
[00:00:40] current production, and also the stocks that are in partner
[00:00:43] countries, but objectively, they are already
[00:00:47] either unavailable due to being
[00:00:50] empty, or these countries simply
[00:00:54] have their own
[00:00:56] vision of assisting Ukraine, or rather, they don't even
[00:01:00] sell weapons to Ukraine, like South Korea,
[00:01:03] or they have legal restrictions, such as in Japan, which
[00:01:07] after the second war, after its capitulation, has very
[00:01:10] serious restrictions on the export of weapons, and even then, loopholes
[00:01:14] were found to help.
[00:01:17] And Taiwan, which also exploits,
[00:01:20] well, China's security situation is not such that
[00:01:24] Taip would likely reduce its stock
[00:01:28] levels.
[00:01:31] The Persian Gulf countries fired a huge
[00:01:35] number of them due to the war in Iran, well, with Iran,
[00:01:38] and most likely their arsenals
[00:01:42] have objectively reached their bottom. And
[00:01:45] European countries have been supporting
[00:01:48] us with Patriot missiles since 2023,
[00:01:51] and the latest transfer, for example, of five
[00:01:54] missiles from Poland caused a political scandal in Warsaw,
[00:01:58] and... and the US itself,
[00:02:01] well, Trump reportedly said that it is not
[00:02:05] a source, and objectively this is confirmed by the figures
[00:02:08] provided by American analytical structures regarding expenditures, because
[00:02:12] they calculated, in particular, this CIS, it
[00:02:14] calculated that the US most likely has
[00:02:18] approximately 800 missiles, Pac-3, for
[00:02:21] Patriot, which means approximately 13 for
[00:02:24] one launch, for one system out of 60 available,
[00:02:28] that is, this is to load two launchers completely for one
[00:02:32] system, and therefore, when Ukraine asks for 300
[00:02:35] missiles, then if indeed there are
[00:02:38] 800 left, that's almost 40%.
[00:02:42] Regarding these Pac-3 licenses, we have already talked a lot this
[00:02:46] week about the fact that even if we were given this license,
[00:02:49] it would be extremely difficult to implement, even such a technologically advanced
[00:02:53] country as Japan, it took them several years to launch
[00:02:57] the production process. And why are these
[00:03:00] missiles so complex, can we bypass this
[00:03:03] technological threshold to shoot down ballistic missiles? All those
[00:03:07] announcements about some Project Freya, about some interceptors
[00:03:10] of Ukrainian production, our own anti-ballistic missiles, well,
[00:03:13] recently it was a very popular topic, what happened to it generally,
[00:03:16] why are we not talking about it anymore? Nothing happened, it is
[00:03:20] developing. Regarding Freya, the deadlines have even shifted
[00:03:23] in the other direction, they have become more
[00:03:26] recent. In particular, in the leadership
[00:03:30] of Firepoint, in one of the recent interviews,
[00:03:33] they are very actively selling them, I don't even remember the specific
[00:03:37] publication, but it was announced that
[00:03:41] the missile should go to tests with interception
[00:03:44] of ballistic targets in July, well, by
[00:03:48] July 2027, mhm, that is, in
[00:03:51] a year it will already go to tests, and
[00:03:54] it should be noted immediately that Firepoint does not compare
[00:03:58] its missile
[00:04:01] fp7.x with Pac-3
[00:04:04] MSE. In one of the interviews, it was also explained
[00:04:08] that at the first stage, that is, when it will have the first
[00:04:12] such cycle, the first iteration, conditional Block
[00:04:15] One, then well, it will definitely correspond to
[00:04:19] the Pac-2 GMT missile, the one that can only hit
[00:04:23] a ballistic target and there is no hit-to-kill technology, well, and
[00:04:26] objectively, on a missile that is based on 48-N6 from
[00:04:30] the S-300 and S-400 complex, even Soviet, that is, well,
[00:04:33] it has the same aerodynamic shape, concept, layout, there
[00:04:37] are other materials, other solid fuel, other electronics, but
[00:04:40] conceptually it is 48.6, so it was difficult
[00:04:43] to expect hit-to- kill technology, kinetic
[00:04:46] destruction of the warhead in the air along with the ballistic
[00:04:49] missile. So, in the summer of 2027, the
[00:04:52] Freya
[00:04:55] missile will go to tests, and we need to add time to this
[00:04:59] term. It will take time to complete
[00:05:01] the tests,
[00:05:03] and the start of production and production of not only missiles, here
[00:05:07] we are only partially dependent on supplies from
[00:05:11] European partners, because... for example, the homing head, at least
[00:05:14] now it is being considered as
[00:05:17] a cooperation with the company Diehl, that is, it will
[00:05:20] depend on the German company Diehl Defense how many missiles we can
[00:05:24] produce, how many homing heads they supply, how many missiles we can
[00:05:28] physically make, and it will depend on all European partners
[00:05:31] how many complexes we can make, because all the
[00:05:35] PLS for this complex, the command post, this
[00:05:38] is the partners' parish, and only
[00:05:41] after everything goes into production,
[00:05:45] that is, the first complex is produced,
[00:05:48] yes, we must understand that there will be many, many more
[00:05:52] than one complex, and then the issue of producing these
[00:05:55] missiles, which will be at the level of
[00:05:58] Pac-2 GMT at the first stage, at least,
[00:06:01] and here the question is the quantity of these missiles, so
[00:06:05] Freya can never be considered as
[00:06:09] a solution for tomorrow, for this winter.
[00:06:12] And what are the solutions we have for this winter, or will we be able to have our own,
[00:06:15] perhaps ballistic, by the end of the year? We had many
[00:06:18] announcements?
[00:06:21] Well, unfortunately, I really hope that the Firepoint
[00:06:25] company has changed their
[00:06:28] vision, but the last time the question of FP7 was raised,
[00:06:31] I remind you, according to the company's declarations, it was supposed to go
[00:06:35] for codification last winter,
[00:06:38] which was half a year ago, and in the summer...
[00:06:46] FP9 was supposed to go for codification, but apparently the deadlines
[00:06:49] are shifting to the right, so regarding FP7, there was such
[00:06:53] a, well, I can probably say a strange phrase regarding
[00:06:56] the fact that this missile is not needed, because it is expensive
[00:07:00] and flies a short
[00:07:01] distance.
[00:07:05] Well, let's say, I think that maybe
[00:07:08] now it will
[00:07:10] be redone, but either this phrase was made from the point
[00:07:14] of view of information security, only practice will
[00:07:17] show, but in Ukraine, it is known, that is, again,
[00:07:21] from public interviews, how many times officials have said
[00:07:24] that at least two projects exist, these are
[00:07:28] Firepoint ballistic missiles and it is known
[00:07:31] from Yuzhnoye Design Bureau, this is Sapsan, but
[00:07:35] probably, when we finally hear the howling from
[00:07:38] the swamps that these missiles are actively being used, then we can
[00:07:42] say that we have them in sufficient quantities, until
[00:07:45] then, well, we hope that this will
[00:07:49] happen. Let's talk about Sapsan, about this missile, a little more, I
[00:07:52] think we know more about it, what can we say about it with the latest
[00:07:56] information, how prospective
[00:07:57] is this development?
[00:08:00] It has remained prospective for over 10 years, this
[00:08:04] says a lot. In particular, about the fact that this
[00:08:08] prospect is not visible in the near future.
[00:08:14] Objectively, I simply prefer to talk about Ukrainian
[00:08:17] ballistics already based on the fact that howling has begun in the swamps
[00:08:20] that Ukraine is using some ballistic missiles, because
[00:08:24] in this case, when we discuss what
[00:08:28] we should have in our
[00:08:30] arsenal, actually for a long time,
[00:08:34] nothing changes, that is, ballistics is actually, again, one must
[00:08:38] understand that this is a complex topic, as soon as Ukraine develops and begins
[00:08:42] the production of ballistic missiles, we will be the first in
[00:08:45] Europe to produce operational-tactical
[00:08:49] ballistic missiles, no one
[00:08:52] in Europe produces them, that's just the reality in
[00:08:55] the world, that is, when we complain,
[00:08:59] whine, perhaps blame
[00:09:02] our designers, developers, or whoever,
[00:09:06] where are they, well, in reality, one just needs to understand that it's
[00:09:09] difficult, really difficult, and all of Europe, from
[00:09:13] Portugal, to there, if you take the European segment
[00:09:16] of NATO, there's Great Britain, there's Poland, everything else, all these countries,
[00:09:20] there are no ballistic missiles, just as a class, everything
[00:09:24] that exists are intercontinental ballistic missiles in
[00:09:27] homeopathic quantities in France, but these missiles are designed
[00:09:31] for nuclear submarines and are supposed to carry nuclear warheads, their
[00:09:34] use will only happen when France no longer exists, that is,
[00:09:38] this is not the weapon that is for a war like the one with the Russian
[00:09:41] Federation now.
[00:09:44] And France itself, which had, by the way, an excellent project
[00:09:47] of operational-analytical missile complexes,
[00:09:50] ayt, unfortunately, I cannot say how it is pronounced in French, but
[00:09:54] this is precisely the example, so they chopped them up in the
[00:09:57] 90s, and they have not developed
[00:10:01] anything new, and now they are only creating a medium-range ballistic missile,
[00:10:05] well, obviously for a nuclear warhead, and
[00:10:08] this will be created somewhere in the 2030s, mhm.
[00:10:25] or Iranian missiles, then we encounter the fact that it's
[00:10:28] always a re-engineering of some old, sufficiently Soviet or
[00:10:32] Russian missile. Why can't
[00:10:34] we go this way, for example, I don't know, get
[00:10:37] blueprints, so to speak, of the missile that the French cut up,
[00:10:41] as you say, for scrap metal, and just launch it,
[00:10:44] rethink it,
[00:10:47] resume this production, this is the first and second question, of course, regarding
[00:10:50] this Korean threat, you probably saw the Reuters
[00:10:54] publication. About the possibility of 120 missiles being deployed on
[00:10:57] the border with ballistic missile operators from North
[00:11:01] Korea.
[00:11:03] Well, I strongly disagree with the statement regarding old
[00:11:07] Soviet developments, the thing is, if we are talking about the same
[00:11:11] KN-23s that have already been used in Ukraine, then it's an
[00:11:15] Iskander, mhm,
[00:11:17] mm, using technologies available to the DPRK, on
[00:11:21] a technological base that is available, which
[00:11:24] is, well, very far behind what the Russian Federation
[00:11:28] can do, so these KN-23s are much less
[00:11:31] accurate, and even the direct involvement of
[00:11:34] Russian specialists did not help, considering the data
[00:11:38] regarding the accuracy of their strikes, and even the new
[00:11:40] missiles, the new ones, which were
[00:11:43] produced under the new
[00:11:46] order. Therefore, KN-23 is definitely not
[00:11:49] about Soviet, it's specifically about
[00:11:53] using technologies. from Iskander
[00:11:56] regarding Iranian ones,
[00:11:59] well, here we must remember that
[00:12:02] Iran is a country that is
[00:12:06] a bit big, let's say, to put it mildly, a country
[00:12:10] that had a strategic
[00:12:13] national program for creating ballistic
[00:12:16] weapons, and also received assistance from
[00:12:19] the DPRK at one time,
[00:12:22] after the collapse of the Soviet Union, I am sure... directly from
[00:12:25] Russian specialists, who helped them in many ways, back in the
[00:12:29] 90s, 2000s, 2010s,
[00:12:33] and now, even Americans complain that their
[00:12:37] missiles have started to break through Patriot more often, and
[00:12:41] something similar happened with Iskanders,
[00:12:44] that is, the direct involvement of Russian specialists in the modernization of Iranian
[00:12:48] missiles, well, I would say it's highly
[00:12:51] probable, therefore...
[00:12:55] So the question is, why, for example, is there nothing in Ukraine? Well, because it must
[00:12:58] be and should have been a national strategic
[00:13:01] program that would have involved investing
[00:13:04] huge funds, it would have lasted approximately
[00:13:08] 10 years with maximum assistance, that is, we need to
[00:13:12] go back to at least 2016
[00:13:15] to have it today, and it would be better to go back to 2012,
[00:13:19] and we need to understand
[00:13:22] that so many. I didn't want Ukraine to
[00:13:26] receive ballistic missiles, as in
[00:13:29] Europe at one time, why there are no ballistic missiles in Europe either, this is
[00:13:32] a very interesting question, by the way, and the answer to it
[00:13:36] lies in the question of why the US took away from
[00:13:39] the German army the Pershing missiles that were part of
[00:13:42] the Bundeswehr in the 90s. Very little time left,
[00:13:46] finally, if you can briefly comment, I saw that in
[00:13:48] an interview with Dmitry Gordon, Mr.
[00:13:52] Stilerman said
[00:13:55] that this Russian analogue of
[00:13:57] Starlink, this "Rassvet" satellite system, is not
[00:14:01] a big threat, as they are quite easy to
[00:14:03] shoot down.
[00:14:06] Firepoint company will be, if I'm sure that
[00:14:09] if the general designer
[00:14:12] of the company, well, the chief designer of the
[00:14:15] Firepoint company knows
[00:14:18] and can create means for
[00:14:21] shooting down a target that moves at a speed of approximately
[00:14:25] 7.5 km per second at an altitude of over
[00:14:28] 500 km, then creating a ballistic missile FP7
[00:14:32] to destroy and for counter-battery combat with Iskander is
[00:14:36] a simple task for him. Let's hope so.
[00:14:39] Thank you for the conversation and this answer. Oleh Katkov,
[00:14:41] editor-in-chief of Defense Express, was with us. Well, and we will
[00:14:45] continue military topics now, and also, how we can
[00:14:49] actually help the army,
[00:14:52] the military-industrial complex, in order to, after all, get
[00:14:55] the necessary weapons, in particular, I remind you that back in
[00:14:59] 2024, we had promises and President Zelensky said,
[00:15:02] President and then Prime Minister
[00:15:05] Shmyhal, that we would have
[00:15:08] 300 missiles produced by the end of 2025,
[00:15:12] throughout 2025. We know that this did not happen, unfortunately.
[00:15:15] Unfortunately.
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[00:19:25] reality.
[00:19:34] Today Europe, Poland, Ukraine. found themselves at the center
[00:19:38] of geopolitical challenges. The Kremlin attacks Ukraine with drones and
[00:19:41] missiles, tanks, in Europe - with fakes and sabotage, to sow
[00:19:45] fear and divide Europeans. This can be called a decisive moment in our
[00:19:49] common history, how we will react to it, how we will
[00:19:53] understand it, depends on our victory, our development, our
[00:19:55] survival. And Ukraine today is the center
[00:19:59] of Europe, and together with our partners, Poland holds a key place
[00:20:02] among them, we will restrain the Kremlin's invasion.
[00:20:06] We must say no,
[00:20:10] Watch the program "Center of Europe" every Friday at 13:10 on
[00:20:14] Espresso.
[00:20:22] On the line of contact and in the enemy's rear.
[00:20:25] The enemy will not understand where death came from.
[00:20:29] Special Operations Forces are always beyond
[00:20:31] the limit.
[00:20:42] On the line of contact and in the enemy's rear,
[00:20:45] the enemy will not understand where death
[00:20:47] came from. Special Operations Forces
[00:20:51] are always beyond the limit.
[00:20:54] There was also a statement at the end of 2025, I believe,
[00:20:57] by President Zelensky, that we will invest 35
[00:21:00] billion dollars in the production of our own
[00:21:04] missiles and drones in 2026. We have already passed
[00:21:07] half a year, and perhaps we can make intermediate
[00:21:11] conclusions, because, you know, even if we proceed from the cost of 3
[00:21:14] million dollars, which is the average estimated cost of a Russian
[00:21:18] ballistic missile, then... Even if we assume that only half
[00:21:22] of this amount, say, 18 billion, was spent on
[00:21:25] this, then it would mean let's calculate,
[00:21:28] how many, 600 ballistic missiles. I think that not much
[00:21:32] would be left of Russia at such rates. Why has this not
[00:21:35] happened yet? We will try to discuss this with Ilya Neskhodovsky,
[00:21:39] serviceman of the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade, freelance expert
[00:21:43] of the National Interests Protection
[00:21:50] Hello, everyone. Well, I
[00:21:54] will return to this question again. In your opinion, why was it not possible to
[00:21:57] produce 300 missiles in 2025,
[00:22:00] and what needs to be done, what conclusions can be drawn
[00:22:04] to make it happen this year, or at least
[00:22:07] next year?
[00:22:11] Well, first, I will say that
[00:22:14] I will not express myself, I do not know at what stage those or other
[00:22:18] times were, but of course.
[00:22:20] Well, simple logic, it basically gives
[00:22:23] such an answer that Ukraine had
[00:22:27] rocket developments, they were quite
[00:22:30] promising, which passed certain
[00:22:33] tests, we had a sufficiently powerful
[00:22:37] design potential, and
[00:22:39] investing in this direction, because these people
[00:22:43] were without money, without work, without
[00:22:47] state orders, and well, the
[00:22:50] result, well, the matter did not
[00:22:53] move forward, but for some
[00:22:56] reasons, although we guess for what reasons, the emphasis
[00:23:00] was placed on developing missiles
[00:23:03] from scratch, and this development of missiles
[00:23:07] from scratch, that is, led to the fact that this
[00:23:11] process objectively
[00:23:14] takes a sufficiently long time, there are many
[00:23:17] statements from the chief
[00:23:20] designer of a well-known company, who just
[00:23:22] promises to hit Moscow, and hit there at 1000
[00:23:26] km and all the rest, but
[00:23:29] so far these are only statements, only a few
[00:23:32] hits we can observe and confirm
[00:23:35] that it was indeed carried out
[00:23:37] by a missile, other
[00:23:41] hits are quite low, that is, the statements
[00:23:44] diverge from the actual result, so the process
[00:23:47] drags on because...
[00:23:50] for some reason, the emphasis was placed on new development,
[00:23:53] the fact that this manufacturer really produces
[00:23:57] sufficiently effective drones, which
[00:24:00] have corresponding hits, which
[00:24:03] indeed inflict significant damage on the enemy, this
[00:24:06] is undeniable, but these are completely different technologies,
[00:24:10] comparing missiles and comparing
[00:24:14] drones, well, it's I don't even know how to
[00:24:18] compare them, a hybrid
[00:24:30] car, please, because missiles are quite complex, it's not just to launch
[00:24:34] and fly, what to launch and fly, he said in one interview
[00:24:38] that it was known to the Germans during the Second World
[00:24:41] War, so indeed, that is, it was known back
[00:24:45] then, but now it's about
[00:24:48] guidance, and about maneuvering, and
[00:24:51] about targeting, these are all
[00:24:55] quite complex technological
[00:24:58] parts, and therefore, to compare them or transfer them,
[00:25:02] for example, from a drone to a missile, well, it doesn't
[00:25:05] work out, so we are accordingly waiting for
[00:25:08] these millions of promises to turn into at least 10%
[00:25:12] real results of hits,
[00:25:15] in my opinion, this was one of the... we will talk about a certain
[00:25:19] political obstacle, due to the fact that the Minister
[00:25:23] of Defense Fedorov, accordingly,
[00:25:25] who is now in retirement, introduced
[00:25:27] into the system evaluation not by promises, but by
[00:25:31] results, accordingly, and the
[00:25:34] orders that the Ministry of
[00:25:37] Defense placed changed
[00:25:40] significantly, and as a result, many did not
[00:25:44] like it, that is, big money became the reason for this resignation,
[00:25:48] in what, about which he basically spoke with...
[00:25:53] In your opinion, how big is this corruption
[00:25:56] margin that can be hidden in
[00:26:00] all these current defense orders, how much
[00:26:03] can it affect defense capability?
[00:26:06] Look, I
[00:26:10] wouldn't say corruption margin, what
[00:26:13] is laid in the
[00:26:17] possible earnings, accordingly, you developed something
[00:26:21] unique, unique and very effective, it
[00:26:25] really does not cost tens of thousands
[00:26:28] of dollars, its production may
[00:26:31] only cost a couple of thousand
[00:26:34] dollars, but if your means
[00:26:38] are effective, then in that case, you can
[00:26:41] order it in sufficiently large volumes and
[00:26:45] even with a large network, but this is not a corruption
[00:26:48] margin, but if you
[00:26:51] know that your tool is no better than
[00:26:54] another, that is, it shows the same
[00:26:57] effectiveness, and the volumes
[00:27:00] of purchases are not because of the price, on the contrary, the price
[00:27:04] of your product is higher than
[00:27:07] the product of your competitors, then in
[00:27:10] such a case, and you negotiate
[00:27:13] through your personal acquaintances with the Minister
[00:27:17] of Defense, you negotiate with
[00:27:20] other leaders of relevant structural
[00:27:23] units, then the question arises: this
[00:27:26] is a corruption network, when the choice
[00:27:29] is made not in favor of effectiveness.
[00:27:32] in favor of other interests in the purchase of certain
[00:27:36] products, what volume, and
[00:27:39] again, I emphasize, it is difficult
[00:27:41] to say,
[00:27:44] and to a person who, who, who is on the front, it doesn't
[00:27:47] matter how much that
[00:27:51] tool cost, which helps him
[00:27:53] fight, he doesn't care
[00:27:57] how much the state, what paths it has taken, who is
[00:28:01] the developer. The main thing is that it
[00:28:04] works effectively, and if it works
[00:28:08] effectively, then in such a case, the soldier
[00:28:11] receives proper, appropriate
[00:28:14] provision, military provision, with which he can
[00:28:17] fight, but when this does not happen, when
[00:28:21] the tool that is bought breaks in your
[00:28:23] hands, which harms
[00:28:27] health, and possibly takes the lives of your
[00:28:30] brothers-in-arms, then... this is exactly what
[00:28:33] corruption is, corruption that is paid quite dearly,
[00:28:37] so I would like competition to be something
[00:28:41] more market-driven in
[00:28:43] terms of provision, and orders,
[00:28:46] that is, determined by
[00:28:49] effectiveness, the more effective one or another
[00:28:52] product is, the more
[00:28:55] orders it will receive, what volumes, well, as
[00:28:58] for me, based on certain
[00:29:02] estimates... you need to understand that some constructive changes need to be made to some
[00:29:04] product, and then the price can double,
[00:29:08] so it's very difficult
[00:29:12] to estimate here, that is, it's important not to look at the past, as
[00:29:15] for me, but now to ensure
[00:29:18] the purchase of the most effective means, which
[00:29:22] are effective both on the front, as in anti-missile, anti-drone
[00:29:25] defense, and in all
[00:29:29] deep strikes that Ukraine carries out against the enemy.
[00:29:32] Effectiveness must be in the first place, whoever
[00:29:35] is effective, gets more orders, and then,
[00:29:39] if we start to deal with the past, well, we might lose the war
[00:29:43] badly. You know that
[00:29:46] there is an example of the United States, which, I don't remember,
[00:29:50] for how many, 15 years or more, cannot choose a standard
[00:29:53] pistol for their officers,
[00:29:56] servicemen, they conduct dozens
[00:29:59] of competitions every year, they lean towards... a Swiss
[00:30:03] model, then a second one, then some other, and
[00:30:06] it takes an extremely long time, but they have time, they
[00:30:10] have weapons that work normally, we don't
[00:30:14] have time, and how to combine the need to make
[00:30:17] quick effective decisions, and the fact that
[00:30:21] behind every decision there can be some conditional bribe,
[00:30:24] back office and and this kickback into some
[00:30:28] billions.
[00:30:32] What Fedorov introduced, he introduced a system,
[00:30:36] where you cannot realize your personal
[00:30:39] interest, there is statistics, statistics
[00:30:43] of hits, there is accordingly, you know
[00:30:46] who, you know what product, you have
[00:30:49] documentary video, you have
[00:30:52] video confirmation of hits and you
[00:30:55] see what the effectiveness of these hits is, he
[00:30:58] actually destroyed it.