ESPRESO — broadcast
20261011 090000 UTC
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[00:00:00] revolutions occurred in Austria-Hungary and Germany,
[00:00:03] which ended in their capitulation in the First World
[00:00:06] War. That is exactly what Vladimir
[00:00:10] Putin is betting on. On a revolution inside Ukraine, which
[00:00:13] as a result of the exhaustion of the Rear will force Kyiv
[00:00:16] to agree to capitulation, forgetting
[00:00:19] at the same time that this strategy can also work the other
[00:00:23] way. But there is no other way than to break the rear.
[00:00:26] That is why the air terror is intensifying.
[00:00:30] against the civilian population. The Kremlin is convinced that Ukrainians
[00:00:33] will definitely not survive this winter. This is their last
[00:00:37] attempt. The first strategic level
[00:00:40] Front, Putin has already lost. The second strategic
[00:00:43] level Rear is going to win, because only the third
[00:00:46] strategic level follows. The use of nuclear weapons. But
[00:00:50] there are so many nuances, starting from the Chinese position, that
[00:00:54] it can only exist theoretically, but in
[00:00:56] practice it is unrealistic to use.
[00:01:00] attacks on Ukrainian energy have already begun and caused
[00:01:04] some surprise as to why so early. The first massive
[00:01:07] strike was launched in the last days of September, the weather is beautiful
[00:01:11] outside, this year's autumn is really warm, they promise a wet and
[00:01:14] warm winter, and so early because the window
[00:01:18] of opportunity is very narrow, Ukraine was going to find
[00:01:22] countermeasures to jet drones in 2-3 months for Kyiv and
[00:01:25] scale it up in six months for all of Ukraine. But what
[00:01:28] do we see now? A month after the first attacks
[00:01:32] of jet drones on Kyiv, the alarms became much
[00:01:35] shorter, they no longer last 3-5 hours, this
[00:01:39] means that countermeasures have been found, an air defense
[00:01:42] ring around the capital is being created, which means
[00:01:46] that Putin's window of opportunity will be much shorter than
[00:01:49] expected, and therefore we need to hurry, which is already
[00:01:52] being done, what else should be done and how, when
[00:01:55] the air terror significantly weakens, what about the first
[00:01:58] Ukrainian ballistic missile? We talk about all this with
[00:02:02] Valeriy Romanenko. Valeriy
[00:02:05] Romanenko - aviation expert, leading researcher
[00:02:08] at the National Aviation
[00:02:10] University. Mr. Valeriy, greetings, glad
[00:02:13] to see you. After this nightmare that was happening in Kyiv at the beginning of
[00:02:17] autumn, this September, right, with attacks of jet drones, when
[00:02:21] our alarms lasted for hours, the city was paralyzed, now it seems
[00:02:24] easier, is this just my subjective feeling and my psyche
[00:02:28] has simply adapted. Or has air defense
[00:02:32] found some way to reduce the level of these threats? What do you
[00:02:35] think?
[00:02:38] Well, honestly, the level of threats hasn't really decreased,
[00:02:41] the number has slightly increased, well, according to today's
[00:02:44] raid, the number of hit Russian targets has increased,
[00:02:48] well, that is, the strike assets that
[00:02:51] the Russians
[00:02:53] are trying to kill as many Ukrainians as possible, yes, today there are
[00:02:57] results for ballistic missiles, and for the first time. high
[00:03:01] results for jet drones, 82.5% of
[00:03:04] jet drones were shot down, excellent
[00:03:07] result, yes, these are serious results
[00:03:10] in general for all drones exactly
[00:03:13] 90%, if you take all jet and piston
[00:03:17] 90%, this means that we are gradually,
[00:03:21] gradually, although quite quickly
[00:03:24] moving to a level of 95,
[00:03:27] 90-95% of all drones shot down.
[00:03:31] Yes, well, I don't know what to attribute this to, because even
[00:03:35] specialists, leading specialists and state,
[00:03:38] let's say, officials, officials said that we
[00:03:41] needed a few months, yes, well, maybe something
[00:03:45] interesting was used, besides, we are receiving
[00:03:49] weapons, now even Turkey has started supplying us with
[00:03:52] weapons, we have received Turkish anti-aircraft
[00:03:56] guns, everything, yes. received the 11th
[00:04:00] IRIST complex, yes, well,
[00:04:04] they promise us 50,000
[00:04:07] rounds of ammunition from Belgium for
[00:04:10] F-16 fighters, that is, they will be able to shoot down
[00:04:14] jet drones, which are a very
[00:04:17] profitable, very convenient target for them, yes, they will be able to shoot them down simply with
[00:04:21] cannons, cheap and cheerful, well, and let's
[00:04:25] say, it looks like hunting,
[00:04:29] all these methods together, first, the Russians are now
[00:04:32] a bit out of breath launching jet drones, uh-huh,
[00:04:36] it's also clear that their number is falling, there's no point in accumulating
[00:04:40] them, because when you accumulate, we will also
[00:04:43] accumulate anti-aircraft drones, they used the moment
[00:04:47] when there were no retaliatory weapons, yes.
[00:04:50] That is, the number of drones is falling,
[00:04:54] in general, well, let's take today, 130
[00:04:57] strike drones out of 140.
[00:05:00] 130 drones, 46 of them are jet, that's a normal
[00:05:03] percentage for the whole month, it was 45 to
[00:05:06] 55, almost half, yes,
[00:05:09] now it has dropped to a third, that is...
[00:05:12] the processes are converging, we are more effective,
[00:05:15] the Russians, therefore, are launching less, capable of launching less, because after all, our
[00:05:19] strikes on Russian enterprises,
[00:05:23] they do not contribute to increasing
[00:05:26] production, I have several questions here at once,
[00:05:29] first you mentioned about
[00:05:32] Belgian ammunition, right, for F-16s, what is this
[00:05:36] scandal, that the Western press writes that allegedly Belgium
[00:05:39] very slow regulatory... works
[00:05:43] of F-16s, that it takes 40 weeks, instead of a few weeks, and
[00:05:47] half of our F-16 aviation cannot get into the
[00:05:50] air, does this correspond to reality, or is it some kind of
[00:05:53] hype? No, the Belgian Minister of Defense said
[00:05:57] nothing of the sort, in the near future we will transfer 3
[00:06:00] more F-16s to you. Uh-huh. Moreover, the Russians
[00:06:03] are improving guidance systems,
[00:06:06] the French, for example, for us improved,
[00:06:10] improved the system, well, not... well, the defense
[00:06:13] system of this, that is, the onboard defense complex of F-16
[00:06:17] fighters, uh-huh, that is, let's
[00:06:20] say, the pilots say that not a single flight goes without, without
[00:06:24] that, well, to the front line, yes, for example, to
[00:06:27] drop, uh, let's say, our
[00:06:30] KABs, French KABs, yes, that is, we drop Hammer,
[00:06:33] well, and Ukrainian ones have appeared now, to drop them, we have to
[00:06:37] fly about 20-30 kilometers to the front
[00:06:40] line, so not a single... time has there been when one,
[00:06:44] two or more missiles were not launched at them. Uh-huh. And onboard
[00:06:47] complexes, well, we have not lost F-16s near the front.
[00:06:51] Onboard defense complexes allowed these
[00:06:54] missiles to be diverted away, that is, there are many
[00:06:58] methods, you can, that is, for example,
[00:07:00] give virtual targets, and a missile, it's a Russian missile, especially,
[00:07:04] it's stupid, it can fly to, let's say,
[00:07:08] the maximum heat source, if there is
[00:07:11] infrared guidance, yes, or, let's say, to
[00:07:15] the maximum signal strength, and
[00:07:18] traps are made exactly like that, that they exceed, they
[00:07:21] burn brighter and hotter
[00:07:24] than a jet engine, well, and
[00:07:27] although everything was improved there, but well, the French have now
[00:07:31] installed it for us, and the Belgians say, we couldn't just give it to you,
[00:07:35] it needed France's permission, that's why we
[00:07:39] were delayed, and in general, our terms are normal, we...
[00:07:42] just like American planes, which, well, fought
[00:07:45] in the Persian Gulf, yes, so Ukrainian fighters
[00:07:49] take three or four weeks and the plane, replacement,
[00:07:53] full replacement, well, engine replacement, replacement of appropriate
[00:07:56] systems, control checks of all aircraft
[00:07:59] systems and they are returned to us, so it
[00:08:03] was, let's say, well, a bird and a duck, well, thank you for clarifying
[00:08:07] this betrayal, which some deputies, or rather female deputies,
[00:08:10] have already started spreading, well-known, but you also mentioned
[00:08:14] another story about the fact that the defense forces are working ahead of the curve and
[00:08:18] trying to hit factories, right, which produce both
[00:08:21] missiles and drones themselves, and here another
[00:08:25] interesting thing appeared, correct me if I'm wrong, there were
[00:08:28] a lot of reports that the defense forces are destroying
[00:08:32] launchers, earlier there weren't such a large number in summer,
[00:08:36] for example, that is, some kind of hunting for launchers has begun,
[00:08:40] both for jet drones and, accordingly, for
[00:08:43] ballistic missile launchers, or not?
[00:08:47] Not just hunting, but successful hunting, yes,
[00:08:51] safari, you remember how many jet
[00:08:54] drones flew from Bryansk region in September,
[00:08:58] right? And now try to find any mention of
[00:09:01] anything, just anything, flying from Bryansk region, yes, drones
[00:09:05] don't fly from there at all, meaning
[00:09:08] most likely we have sufficiently zeroed in on this region
[00:09:11] of Russia, yes. But as you understand, when I,
[00:09:15] when before that they told us that it was impossible to do because
[00:09:19] we don't have this weapon, so short-range ballistic missiles, which
[00:09:22] can quickly cover this launcher, uh,
[00:09:26] then wait, how are we covering this now, by what means
[00:09:29] are we doing this,
[00:09:32] well, that's a question for the General Staff, okay, let's just say
[00:09:36] for now I can, I can guess how it's done,
[00:09:39] and I'll make another annotation that... I can imagine
[00:09:43] how it's done, uh-huh, yes, very good,
[00:09:46] first, we receive information from
[00:09:49] allies, and we have already, both with you and on other
[00:09:52] broadcasts, I said that these launchers, for
[00:09:55] example, how were the S-400 launchers destroyed, they were
[00:09:59] destroyed on the march, uh-huh, on the road, yes,
[00:10:02] right, and, there is a small range, 250 km, or
[00:10:06] 300, plus, a little bit more kilometers, they have to approach.
[00:10:10] 50 km to the border in
[00:10:12] Bryansk region, and 50 km our
[00:10:16] scouts see, well, even without crossing
[00:10:20] the border, uh-huh, at such a distance and... we
[00:10:23] receive, let's say, Starlink also works at such a
[00:10:27] distance, uh-huh, that is, we caught several such installations,
[00:10:30] well, for example, there was information that in
[00:10:34] the area of Vyhonichi, Bryansk region, two S-400
[00:10:37] launchers were destroyed, one of them
[00:10:41] was shown in the photo, a missile, well, unfortunately, I
[00:10:44] don't know if they were annoyed, a missile, a drone, that is, it just hit the
[00:10:47] cabin, where all the electronics are located,
[00:10:50] yes, unfortunately, four pipes with
[00:10:53] missiles are standing intact, it's
[00:10:56] more beautiful when it hits the missiles, it's more beautiful, but it hit
[00:10:59] the cabin, but still this launcher, it's already
[00:11:03] all, it's written off, well, perhaps
[00:11:06] the pipes were empty, so the strike on the pipe, the Russians have already launched,
[00:11:10] yes, well, and still
[00:11:13] decided, the operator decided to hit the cabin, because
[00:11:16] it's a sure thing, because it's,
[00:11:20] let's say, it's a zero-sum game, it will be
[00:11:23] for sure, yes.
[00:11:26] And for missiles, if they are empty, well, what then, the installation
[00:11:29] pipes will be changed within half an hour, they will install
[00:11:33] new ones, the installation will work, so
[00:11:35] that is, strikes, yes,
[00:11:38] that is, intelligence information,
[00:11:41] Midstrikes, including Bars, a jet
[00:11:44] drone, it has a decent speed, and it will reach
[00:11:47] 50 km, 60-70
[00:11:50] km, in 20 minutes for sure.
[00:11:53] And this is exactly the time for deploying and folding the complex,
[00:11:57] and if they also caught it on the march, well, that's
[00:12:00] generally beauty, because you can
[00:12:03] hit it even before launch. Last week I took out
[00:12:06] my mobile phone, wanted to see what the weather would be like, and was surprised
[00:12:10] to see that it felt like 15 degrees outside, what are you wearing in
[00:12:13] Lima, please, what are you wearing in
[00:12:16] Lima, what am I wearing in Lima, yes, I have 25 degrees during the day and
[00:12:20] 21 degrees at night, full tropics, and today we
[00:12:24] read, this is not... Kyiv residents often encountered this, that they were thrown
[00:12:27] into Latin America. And today we already see information that they write
[00:12:30] that such a system, REB, which has already
[00:12:34] changed the coordinates of two Russian ballistic missiles.
[00:12:37] Listen, this is a miracle then, if a whole ballistic missile
[00:12:41] can be deceived in such a way?
[00:12:43] Aeroballistics was mentioned, well, as far as I remember,
[00:12:47] that is, this is not fresh news, but
[00:12:51] these were daggers, uh-huh, and you
[00:12:54] see that the Russians have not used daggers for half a year,
[00:12:57] the reason is unclear, perhaps they are inaccurate by themselves,
[00:13:01] but what is a dagger, it's the ability to
[00:13:04] reach any area of
[00:13:07] Ukraine with a ballistic missile, it doesn't matter, Lviv, Yavoriv,
[00:13:11] that is, Uzhhorod, yes,
[00:13:15] because it was revealed that the range
[00:13:18] of Iskander is only 350 plus
[00:13:21] km, well, 370. there can be, yes,
[00:13:25] and these are, let's say, areas that,
[00:13:29] well, can be reached in Kyiv, in Zhytomyr it's already
[00:13:32] difficult, yes, with ballistic missiles, but they still reach,
[00:13:36] but this is already the limit of possibilities,
[00:13:38] the dagger flew to any point in Ukraine, and they
[00:13:42] stopped using them, either they are vulnerable to
[00:13:45] REB, or simply in general due to
[00:13:48] a different launch system, meaning they just
[00:13:52] have low accuracy and high
[00:13:55] circular error probable from the target in hundreds of meters,
[00:13:59] but well, if they write that this
[00:14:02] is Lima, then it's similar, there are grounds for this,
[00:14:05] well, God grant it, Mr. Valeriy, last question, if we are talking about
[00:14:09] ballistic, aeroballistic, last week the president
[00:14:13] showed FPS,
[00:14:15] right, please tell me, is this
[00:14:19] a converted S-300, is it a modernized S-300,
[00:14:22] and this range of 200,
[00:14:26] 200 km, is it purely for performing tactical tasks at the front,
[00:14:29] or also against the Russian air
[00:14:33] threat for our rear, will it also be useful, for example, in the same
[00:14:37] hunting for Russian launchers in the border area, what
[00:14:41] kind of product is this and why did we wait
[00:14:44] for it so long? Well, we waited a long time because
[00:14:48] no one in Europe has ground-based ballistic missiles,
[00:14:51] no one has them at all, uh-huh. Not a single country has ballistic missiles,
[00:14:55] even for 200 km, even for such a small
[00:14:58] distance, even for such a distance, they just don't
[00:15:02] have ballistic missiles, we had Tochka-U and Tochka
[00:15:05] U, yes, so missiles, there was
[00:15:08] 100-120 km range, yes, now
[00:15:12] a leap, range 250,
[00:15:14] 200-250 km, and in general
[00:15:18] ballistics have been developed for decades, there are
[00:15:21] many, let's say, moments, there especially...
[00:15:25] you need to maintain the trajectory and not just maintain the
[00:15:28] trajectory,
[00:15:31] but you need to measure, very accurately measure acceleration,
[00:15:35] you know, I once talked to...
[00:15:40] They say that for ballistic intercontinental missiles
[00:15:44] the accuracy of acceleration is up to
[00:15:48] the -12th degree, 11 zeros before the digit,
[00:15:51] wow, huge accuracy, so in order for the missile to
[00:15:55] hit the target without additional guidance, you need
[00:15:58] to create a very, very cool
[00:16:01] inertial system, but
[00:16:04] our missiles, the ones that are being developed, will most
[00:16:08] likely also have a guidance system at the final
[00:16:11] stage, this would be very convenient, because then
[00:16:14] the circular error would be measured in units
[00:16:18] of meters, we had such systems, we even showed them
[00:16:21] before the war at
[00:16:23] arms exhibitions, but as for this missile,
[00:16:27] indeed, a missile was taken as a sample, it seems
[00:16:31] from the S-300 complex, only not
[00:16:35] 5V-55 or 48N6. I just
[00:16:38] can't remember now, that is, we
[00:16:41] followed the same path as the Iranians,
[00:16:44] for example, and the North Koreans, by the way, the Iranians also took
[00:16:48] an anti-aircraft missile and gradually, gradually, gradually turned it
[00:16:51] into a ballistic missile, practically intercontinental, uh-huh, somewhere
[00:16:55] they added, somewhere they extended, well,
[00:16:59] and this missile has two, in general,
[00:17:01] two missiles were created based on the FP-7 missile,
[00:17:05] the first one is an analog of the American ATACMS. Uh-huh, for
[00:17:08] hitting any targets at a range of
[00:17:11] 200-250 km, yes, uh-huh, well, this
[00:17:14] means 150 km into Russian territory, that's
[00:17:18] enough for destroying S-400
[00:17:21] complexes, well, and the second option, an anti-aircraft
[00:17:24] missile Freya is being developed based on it, an anti-aircraft complex, also,
[00:17:28] let's say, Europe does not have many such
[00:17:31] missiles, and therefore Western companies are most likely
[00:17:34] taking an active part in
[00:17:38] this project. Mr.
[00:17:40] Valeriy, thank you for the conversation, we will hope that our
[00:17:44] capabilities will increase, and this window of opportunity that the Russians
[00:17:47] received at the very end of summer, at the beginning of autumn, will close
[00:17:51] very quickly for them. Thank you, Mr. Valeriy. You are
[00:17:54] welcome. The war has long ceased to be fought only on the battlefield, because even
[00:17:57] the front line in the classical sense has disappeared. The war
[00:18:01] is being fought for our minds. Therefore, probably for the first time since
[00:18:05] 2022, when all Ukrainian society agreed to fight
[00:18:08] the Russians, now the rear is becoming the main thing for
[00:18:12] us and for the Russians. If we stand this winter and do not
[00:18:16] collapse by the spring of 2027, the chance to end
[00:18:19] the war with the preservation of our state and millions of lives
[00:18:23] remains. You can scare yourself with Putin's omnipotence as much
[00:18:26] as you want, but that's not true. He has no fewer problems, it's just
[00:18:29] that the large scale of his country and inertia allow
[00:18:33] him to redistribute resources longer and pretend that nothing...
[00:18:37] is happening, the more terrible and
[00:18:40] unexpected the beginning of the end is, the
[00:18:44] harder it is not to miss this moment, and while the dictator of the
[00:18:47] Kremlin is betting, he made his last bet on the winter of
[00:18:51] 2026-2027, what it will be like for
[00:18:54] Ukrainians, let's figure it out
[00:18:56] further.
[00:19:00] We are entering the fifth military winter. Fifth
[00:19:03] means that our energy has become stronger, but also
[00:19:06] weaker. And there is no contradiction in these statements, because
[00:19:10] the four previous winters accumulated colossal experience,
[00:19:14] which no other country's energy sector in the world has. These are truly heroes
[00:19:18] without excessive pathos, who do incredible things at
[00:19:21] abnormal negative temperatures without
[00:19:23] rest for days, but human resources, which get tired,
[00:19:27] are exhausted and burn out, turn out to be
[00:19:30] stronger than material ones. Our energy sector as a whole
[00:19:34] has become weaker, because four years of ruthless destruction of
[00:19:37] civilian objects yields its results, and even the colossal assistance
[00:19:41] of Western partners, which they provide, can
[00:19:44] mitigate, but not eliminate the consequences
[00:19:47] completely. That is why each subsequent
[00:19:51] heating season became more difficult for our cities. Last
[00:19:54] winter was especially extreme: hundreds of Kyiv
[00:19:57] high-rises found themselves not only without electricity, but also without heat. Fortunately, this
[00:20:01] winter such terrible temperatures are not predicted,
[00:20:05] but Russia is also changing priorities. In addition to... the
[00:20:07] two main capital's thermal power plants, on which the heat and
[00:20:11] light of hundreds of thousands of people depend, which were particularly
[00:20:14] affected, almost completely destroyed last
[00:20:17] winter, they are also going to attack water supply and
[00:20:20] sewerage, together with attacks on bridges, on gas stations, on
[00:20:24] warehouses, on pharmaceutical factories, on large retail chains, this should
[00:20:28] provoke a humanitarian catastrophe and finally bring
[00:20:31] Ukraine to its knees before Putin.
[00:20:35] Russia plans to implement a series of... strikes on Ukrainian energy
[00:20:39] on the eve of the winter period with the goal of completely paralyzing
[00:20:42] electricity and water supply, as well as heating of large cities,
[00:20:46] including Kharkiv, Odesa and Kyiv, causing a humanitarian collapse.
[00:20:50] Ukraine demonstrated to its European partners what, according to its
[00:20:53] words, were intercepted Russian plans to cut off
[00:20:57] large cities from electricity, heating, and water this winter.
[00:21:00] The plan, a copy of which was obtained by The New York Times, describes a campaign
[00:21:04] of strikes using up to a thousand missiles, drones, and bombs.
[00:21:08] They will target a wide range of facilities, including
[00:21:11] electrical substations, hydroelectric power plants, and thermal
[00:21:15] power plants, as well as boiler houses. Up to
[00:21:18] a thousand missiles and drones. and bombs sounds alarming,
[00:21:21] of course, but we should not overestimate Russia's capabilities, in
[00:21:25] previous years it was approximately the same, it's just that now Moscow
[00:21:28] is using two advantages it has gained in the air: first -
[00:21:32] mass jet drones will begin to shoot down
[00:21:35] Russian geraniums around November, this was stated by
[00:21:38] the deputy commander of the anti-aircraft forces, Yuriy
[00:21:41] Cherevashenko. Second, this time, after Donald Trump's
[00:21:45] Iranian adventure, we have a colossal shortage of missiles for
[00:21:48] Patriot. The campaign of strikes on energy
[00:21:51] is divided into three stages: stage one - substations
[00:21:55] near the western border, the goal - to cut off Ukraine from
[00:21:58] electricity imports from EU countries. Stage two -
[00:22:02] hydroelectric power plants. The goal - the destruction of maneuvering generation,
[00:22:06] which absorbs peak loads. Stage three -
[00:22:08] open switchgear of nuclear power plants (NPPs).
[00:22:12] The goal - to physically cut off the Rivne, Khmelnytsky and
[00:22:15] South-Ukrainian NPPs from the grid, causing
[00:22:17] collapse. So, we see that in the traditional
[00:22:21] plan of winter strikes on energy, an important nuance has appeared:
[00:22:24] substations of nuclear power plants. Previously, the Russians also
[00:22:28] tried to attack them, but these were rather episodic strikes.
[00:22:32] The issue of NPPs and nuclear safety is too sensitive,
[00:22:35] especially for Beijing. But this winter Putin plans to
[00:22:38] ignore such risks. Strikes are planned to be carried out on
[00:22:42] substations one kilometer from nuclear reactors, which is formally not
[00:22:45] a direct strike on the unit, but completely
[00:22:48] stops power
[00:22:51] output to the grid, however, it is too early to lie down in a dying
[00:22:54] hole for Kyiv residents and Ukrainians in general, any plan, especially a Russian one, looks
[00:22:58] good on paper, but too often goes wrong in real
[00:23:01] life, and Ukraine has drawn certain conclusions. If in previous
[00:23:05] seasons we simply tried to restore what was
[00:23:08] damaged, now the focus is on autonomy and physical
[00:23:12] protection. What has been achieved in preparing the energy sector for
[00:23:15] another winter of war and what... are the clear failures,
[00:23:19] we talk to Oleksandr Kharchenko.
[00:23:22] Oleksandr Kharchenko, Director of the Energy Research Center,
[00:23:26] expert in the field of energy systems and critical infrastructure. From
[00:23:30] 2015, he was an advisor to the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, and from
[00:23:34] 2016, the head of Naftogaz. Later, he advised
[00:23:37] the National Security and Defense Council on the state of the energy sector. From
[00:23:40] the beginning of 2023, technical manager for assessing
[00:23:44] damage to critical infrastructure in the UN
[00:23:47] Development Program. Mr. Oleksandr, hello, we last
[00:23:50] spoke with you in February 2026, for obvious
[00:23:54] reasons, we remember what happened then in Kyiv,
[00:23:57] particularly in Kyiv, and here we have a new season,
[00:24:01] yes, Western media published Russia's
[00:24:04] plan of attacks on energy this winter, and it sounds quite
[00:24:08] impressive and scary, a thousand missiles, drones, attacks on
[00:24:11] substations, how fundamentally different is this plan
[00:24:14] from what Russia did in previous winters, is it really
[00:24:18] that scary, or is it just some kind of informational
[00:24:22] scarecrow? Let me
[00:24:25] start the answer by saying that it just
[00:24:29] so happened that this year this document became
[00:24:33] public, but we knew about similar
[00:24:36] documents non-publicly and it was
[00:24:40] understood and their content, and their
[00:24:44] form was known, since 2023 it
[00:24:47] has been done stably, 2022. This was their first
[00:24:51] approach, but after that something similar to the document that
[00:24:54] became public is prepared stably annually. Uh-huh.
[00:24:58] So, is this news? No, this is not
[00:25:01] news. Is there anything
[00:25:04] new in it?
[00:25:06] I will say frankly that no, and after 2024
[00:25:10] this document does not undergo any significant
[00:25:14] updates, if you don't take into
[00:25:17] account the list of means that we... Muscovites
[00:25:21] are going to hit our energy
[00:25:24] and critical infrastructure, certain positions are added there,
[00:25:28] reactive drones were added, geraniums
[00:25:32] 5-6 and everything related to it, etc.
[00:25:35] and so on, all these positions, regarding the principles
[00:25:39] of their strikes, then they as if
[00:25:42] did not critically change in this document,
[00:25:45] there are certain steps left, right, but they are absolutely
[00:25:49] not. systemic, okay, good,
[00:25:52] and tell me please, if we then are talking not about the plans of the Russians, but about
[00:25:56] our plans, if we compare the readiness for the heating
[00:26:00] season, for winter, for shelling 20... 5-26 and
[00:26:03] 26-27 now, so what has Ukraine managed to do in
[00:26:07] preparation for the new heating season, and what have we frankly
[00:26:10] failed?
[00:26:12] Well, on the one hand, we prepared much better for this
[00:26:16] heating season than for
[00:26:18] any other, and here an indicator can be, among
[00:26:22] other things, the amount of invested funds, and it is significantly
[00:26:26] higher than any year before that, and this is good
[00:26:30] news, and a significant part of these funds,
[00:26:33] at least from what I can see, is effectively
[00:26:36] used. Uh-huh. There are certain problems, and now
[00:26:39] the government has actually stopped, due to lack of funds, payments
[00:26:43] aimed, among other things, at
[00:26:46] the implementation of the so-called resilience plans, which are actually action
[00:26:49] plans for the heating season, preparation for that
[00:26:53] critical infrastructure that needs to be prepared.
[00:26:57] Unfortunately, now even equipment that has already been actually
[00:27:00] manufactured, and... should have been paid for and
[00:27:03] shipped there, for example, backup
[00:27:06] power,
[00:27:09] cogeneration, in some places, elements
[00:27:13] of boiler houses that have already been produced, they cannot be
[00:27:15] fully paid for, and this becomes a significant problem,
[00:27:19] because we simply cannot complete the execution of what
[00:27:23] has already been very deeply worked out, precisely due to
[00:27:26] lack of funds, and this blocking
[00:27:30] of treasury accounts, this...
[00:27:42] because it actually suspends the last steps, which are the most
[00:27:45] important and fundamental in order to secure certain elements
[00:27:49] of critical infrastructure.
[00:27:52] at the same time, is this a guarantee that there will be no
[00:27:56] problems, no, this is not a guarantee, and it is obvious
[00:27:59] that the Muscovites will... focus
[00:28:03] strikes, including focusing them on Kyiv,
[00:28:06] on the Kyiv energy hub, on
[00:28:10] other vulnerable energy hubs of the country, this is already
[00:28:14] absolutely obvious, the recent attacks clearly
[00:28:17] show this,
[00:28:20] and you know, will there be power
[00:28:23] supply restrictions in many regions of Ukraine,
[00:28:26] especially Kyiv region, especially
[00:28:30] Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, frontline
[00:28:32] areas, especially Odesa, yes, 100%
[00:28:36] there will be, let's be honest, we will not
[00:28:38] avoid this, the energy system is not in
[00:28:41] that state as a whole, and no preparation now
[00:28:45] can completely stop the consequences of attacks that will
[00:28:48] occur, so do we need to be ready for electricity
[00:28:52] supply restrictions, yes, we need to be ready, this is objective, we
[00:28:55] already know quite well how to prepare, what needs to be done,
[00:28:59] and I am very glad that this year not only... people
[00:29:02] are preparing, but also local authorities have prepared, a lot
[00:29:06] of backup power has already been installed, a lot of cogeneration
[00:29:09] has already been installed, it works, it
[00:29:12] is active, and now it is really very important
[00:29:15] to unblock funds in order to finalize what
[00:29:18] is unfinished, but a large amount of work has actually been done.
[00:29:22] Russia will continue to strike TPP-5, TPP-6, in what
[00:29:25] condition are they? They are ready for the heating
[00:29:29] season, as ready as they can be, meaning the heating
[00:29:32] position will work and will
[00:29:36] work in normal mode, meaning Kyiv residents
[00:29:39] will receive normal heat, we cannot predict
[00:29:43] the consequences of future strikes, this is objective,
[00:29:46] but a lot has been done to reduce their consequences as
[00:29:50] much as possible, let's put it this way,
[00:29:53] uh-huh, meaning the program that is currently
[00:29:57] being implemented has already brought many results, and we
[00:30:00] see this even from the first.
[00:30:09] At the same time, we understand that in general, to do everything that is planned, it takes
[00:30:13] three years, it takes three years to actually
[00:30:16] secure Kyiv from the consequences of such attacks, in
[00:30:19] principle, at least very significantly, let's put it this way, we will not
[00:30:23] be afraid that we will be left without heating, we will always have a backup
[00:30:26] option, but for this, it really takes three years and
[00:30:30] about a billion euros.
[00:30:33] But the situation when hundreds of houses are left without heat, can
[00:30:36] it repeat itself or not? I understand that it can repeat itself, it can
[00:30:40] repeat itself, objectively, it was unrealistic in one season
[00:30:44] to build backup means for the whole
[00:30:48] city, so throughout the city there are now scattered relatively
[00:30:51] small pieces that may be left without
[00:30:55] heating, there are larger, there are smaller, but
[00:30:58] overall potentially.