ESPRESO — broadcast 20261011 220000 UTC 494 transcript segments Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking Data courtesy of The GDELT Project (https://www.gdeltproject.org/), from the Internet Archive TV News Archive. Machine transcription. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a verbatim quotation record. [00:02:04] War. There are Patriot missiles in the world. [00:02:07] Strikes on Russia. [00:02:10] Dialogue between the government and [00:02:14] society. [00:02:22] Support for Ukraine. Behind every loud event [00:02:26] there is the main question: What's next in the weekdays. At [00:02:30] 20:15 on Espresso. [00:02:33] We are raising funds for a Rep and two engines for medical evacuation [00:02:36] of servicemen of special forces operating in the eastern [00:02:40] direction of our country. The enemy has [00:02:43] disabled vehicles that are used for evacuation [00:02:46] of the wounded from the line of combat clashes. 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The beginning of each new [00:07:24] day together with your favorite team. Lesya [00:07:27] Vakulyuk, Roman Chayka, Kateryna Nekrecha, Serhiy Rudenko, [00:07:31] Iryna Koval and Oksana Vysochanska. This [00:07:34] is the Ukrainian Focus Morning program. These wonderful people [00:07:37] wake up at 4 AM to prepare news [00:07:41] for you and meet the new day with you. Greetings to everyone [00:07:44] who has already woken up, the most important events from the front [00:07:48] and military comments, current news from Ukraine and [00:07:51] Europe, operational information, inclusions, [00:07:54] weather forecasts and conversations with guests, we will talk about [00:07:58] the most pressing issues in Ukraine and [00:08:00] the world, start your information day with those [00:08:04] you trust, Ukrainian focus morning, every day on [00:08:08] weekdays from 7:00 to 10:00 on [00:08:10] Espresso. [00:08:28] Greetings, this is the Eastern Shield program, and today we are talking [00:08:31] about Vivaldi's background music, the tactical successes [00:08:34] of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are already becoming operational. The new [00:08:37] strategy of the Kremlin, the second front for Russia will be the civilian [00:08:41] population of Ukraine. Readiness number one: [00:08:44] Russia has begun attacks on energy infrastructure, is [00:08:48] Ukraine ready? History against Putin, [00:08:51] why the dictator makes a mistake trying [00:08:54] to repeat historical scenarios [00:08:57] of capitulation? [00:09:01] The war is over, but the war will [00:09:04] continue. Sounds paradoxical and even [00:09:07] absurd, doesn't it? However, from the point of view of the strategy chosen, [00:09:11] or rather... once again changed by Vladimir Putin, it is so. If [00:09:15] for almost 5 years the dictator hoped to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield, [00:09:19] now he intends to do it through the collapse [00:09:22] of our rear. Let's take a closer look at [00:09:26] what happened and what will happen. [00:09:29] 2025 was the most difficult for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Our [00:09:33] army slowly but retreated. The enemy entered [00:09:36] the territory of Sicheslav region, approached Sumy, threatened [00:09:39] Zaporizhzhia. Behind it was already a successful Kursk [00:09:43] operation. Putin again believed in his lucky star and that his [00:09:46] bet on a protracted war after the failure of the blitzkrieg in [00:09:49] 2022 would play out. But [00:09:53] in the spring of 2026, the Armed Forces stabilized the front. [00:09:56] First, through a series of counter-offensive actions, the threat to [00:10:00] Zaporizhzhia was removed. This was done by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. And in the autumn [00:10:03] of 2026, the new Commander-in-Chief Drapata continued the tactics [00:10:06] of free counter-offensives this time in Donetsk region, where Ukraine [00:10:10] entered a decisive battle for. a belt of fortress cities. [00:10:14] To Vivaldi's music, the defense forces cut off the Russian salient near [00:10:17] Lyman, which threatened our belt of fortresses that [00:10:21] cover a huge operational space all the way to [00:10:24] the city of Dnipro, and here [00:10:28] Russian war correspondents began to complain that now they [00:10:31] would be beaten in yet another Following problems in the Lyman [00:10:34] direction, the situation is worsening in the Slovyansk direction as well. The enemy [00:10:38] managed to entrench themselves in the Dibrova and Ozerne areas, which [00:10:42] worsened the situation for Russian units in the areas of [00:10:45] Kryva Luka and Piskunivka. [00:10:48] To summarize, at the front, what we have been talking about [00:10:51] since spring is happening: a stalemate. We are not yet able [00:10:55] to deliver a strategic blow to the enemy that would force him to leave [00:10:59] Ukraine, but our tactical successes have already grown into [00:11:02] operational ones. Putin also realized this. A victory at the front [00:11:06] is no longer to be expected. Perhaps this is also connected with [00:11:10] the fact that the huge forced mobilization of 600-800 [00:11:14] thousand, with the closure of borders, which was threatened immediately after the elections to [00:11:18] the State Duma, did not happen. But this [00:11:21] does not mean at all that Putin realized the futility of his plans [00:11:25] to subjugate Ukraine, and that the war will soon stop, no, [00:11:28] it will only intensify. In the Kremlin, they simply changed plans again. [00:11:32] If earlier strikes on the Ukrainian rear were [00:11:34] auxiliary in pressure on the front, now it is precisely [00:11:38] civilians who become the main target for Putin, and military actions at [00:11:41] the front are auxiliary. The strategy [00:11:44] has changed, the goal remained the [00:11:47] same. In this strategy, Putin relies on [00:11:50] historical experience, when the army wins, but [00:11:54] the uprising of the war-weary civilian population [00:11:57] forces the authorities to agree to a humiliating capitulation. Let's [00:12:00] remember how it once was. [00:12:04] June 4 to September 20 1916 [00:12:08] saw one of the most successful operations [00:12:10] of the Entente and the most successful Russian offensive in World War I - [00:12:14] the Brusilov Offensive or the Lutsk Breakthrough. On a front [00:12:17] about 300 km long, about half a million Russian soldiers [00:12:21] went on the offensive simultaneously, and in total, about [00:12:25] 1.5 million servicemen took part in the operation. The Russian army occupied a significant [00:12:28] part of Volhynia, Galicia, and Bukovina. At the same time, the offensive forced [00:12:32] Germany to transfer troops from the Western Front, which weakened the offensive on [00:12:35] Verdun, helped save Italy from defeat by Austrian troops [00:12:39] and ultimately contributed to Romania's entry into the war on the side of the Entente. For the Russian [00:12:43] Empire itself, this victory was the last great success in [00:12:46] the war and virtually the last historical chord of the empire. [00:12:50] Huge human losses, about half a million killed and wounded, and [00:12:53] the exhaustion of the economy accelerated the irreversible processes of its [00:12:57] collapse. Already half a year later, in February 1917, a [00:13:00] revolution took place. The Provisional Government still tried to maintain Russia's participation in [00:13:04] the war, but after the Bolshevik coup, the new government agreed to [00:13:07] the terms of Germany and Austro-Hungary and signed [00:13:11] the Brest-Litovsk Peace Treaty, effectively withdrawing Russia from the war. [00:13:14] In March 1918, [00:13:17] Germany and Austro-Hungary triumphed. The Eastern Front, [00:13:20] which was especially difficult for them, given the weakness of the Austro-Hungarian [00:13:24] army, which without German help would have lost the war at its very beginning, [00:13:28] finally fell. As a result of the Brest-Litovsk Peace Treaty, Russia lost [00:13:31] Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, as well as the Turkish [00:13:35] vilayets in the Caucasus, Kars, Ardahan, Batumi. [00:13:38] Russia was to pay 6 billion marks in reparations. [00:13:42] It seemed that the Triple Alliance, having received unlimited food resources [00:13:45] from Ukraine, would still defeat the Entente. But already half a year later, [00:13:48] in the autumn of 1918, revolutions took place in [00:13:51] Austro-Hungary and Germany, which ended their. [00:13:58] This is precisely what Vladimir Putin is banking on, on a revolution [00:14:01] within Ukraine, which, as a result of the exhaustion of the rear, [00:14:05] will force Kyiv to agree to [00:14:07] capitulation, forgetting that this strategy [00:14:11] can also work the other way, but he has no other [00:14:15] way out than to break the rear. This is precisely why [00:14:18] the air terror against the civilian population is intensifying. The Kremlin [00:14:21] is convinced that Ukrainians will definitely not survive this [00:14:25] winter, this is their last attempt. [00:14:28] Putin has already lost the first strategic level [00:14:31] of the front, and he intends to win [00:14:34] the second strategic level of the rear, because beyond that is only the third [00:14:38] strategic level, the use of nuclear weapons, but [00:14:42] there are so many nuances, starting from the Chinese position, that it [00:14:45] can only exist theoretically, but in practice it is [00:14:48] unrealistic to use. Attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have already [00:14:52] begun and caused some surprise. Why so [00:14:55] early? The first massive strike was delivered in the last days [00:14:59] of September. The weather is beautiful outside. This autumn is [00:15:02] indeed warm, and the winter is also promised to be [00:15:05] wet and warm. And so early because the window [00:15:08] of opportunities is very narrow, Ukraine was going to find [00:15:12] countermeasures against jet drones in two to three months for Kyiv and scale [00:15:15] it up in six months for the whole of Ukraine. But what do we see [00:15:19] now? A month after the first attacks of jet [00:15:22] drones on Kyiv. Alarms became [00:15:25] much shorter, they no longer last 3-5 hours, this [00:15:29] means that a countermeasure has been found, an anti-aircraft [00:15:32] ring around the capital is being created, which means that [00:15:35] Putin's window of opportunity will be... much shorter than [00:15:39] expected, and therefore we need to hurry, which is already [00:15:42] being done, what else needs to be done and how, when [00:15:45] the air terror will significantly weaken, what about the first [00:15:48] Ukrainian ballistic missile, we talk about all this with [00:15:52] Valeriy Romanenko. Valeriy [00:15:55] Romanenko, aviation expert, leading researcher [00:15:58] at the National Aviation University. Mr. [00:16:02] Valeriy, greetings, glad to see you, after this nightmare [00:16:05] that was happening in Kyiv at the beginning. [00:16:07] September with the attacks of jet drones, which lasted for [00:16:11] hours, the city was paralyzed, now it seems [00:16:14] easier, is this my subjective feeling and my psyche [00:16:18] has just adapted, or did air defense [00:16:21] find a way to reduce the level of these threats, what do [00:16:25] you think, well, frankly speaking, the level of threats [00:16:29] has not decreased much, the number of [00:16:33] hits has slightly increased, well, regarding today's [00:16:36] raid, the number of damaged Russian targets, well, that is, [00:16:39] the strike means that the Russians [00:16:43] are trying to kill as many Ukrainians as possible, yes, today there are [00:16:46] results for ballistics, and [00:16:49] for the first time, a high result for jet drones, [00:16:52] 82.5% of jet drones were shot down, [00:16:56] excellent result, [00:16:58] yes, this is a serious result, and in general for all [00:17:01] drones, exactly 90%, if we take [00:17:05] all jet and piston. [00:17:07] 90%, this means that we are gradually, [00:17:11] gradually, although quite quickly, [00:17:14] moving to a level of 95, [00:17:17] 90-95% of all drones are shot down, [00:17:20] yes, well, I don't know what this is [00:17:24] connected with, because even specialists, leading specialists, [00:17:28] and state, so to speak, officials, [00:17:31] official persons, said that we need a few months, [00:17:35] yes, well, maybe something interesting was applied, [00:17:38] besides, we are receiving weapons, now even [00:17:42] Turkey has started supplying us with weapons, we received [00:17:45] Turkish anti-aircraft guns, everything that [00:17:49] yes, we received the 11th complex, [00:17:52] Iristi, yes, well, they [00:17:55] promise us 50 000 ammunition from [00:17:58] Belgium are promised for f16 fighters, [00:18:02] uh-huh, that is, they will be able to shoot down reactive drones, which for [00:18:05] them are, well... very profitable, very convenient targets, [00:18:09] yes, they will be able to shoot down simply with guns, that's cheap, [00:18:13] angry, well, and, let's say so, similar to [00:18:17] hunting, all these methods together, first, [00:18:21] the Russians are now a bit out of breath releasing [00:18:24] jet drones, uh-huh, well, it's also clear that their [00:18:28] number is falling, there's no point in accumulating them, [00:18:31] because when you accumulate, we also accumulate anti-aircraft drones, [00:18:35] they used the moment when there was no weapon [00:18:38] of retaliation, yes so, well, the fact [00:18:41] that the number of drones is falling, in general, well, let's take [00:18:45] today, 130 strike, of which, [00:18:49] 140, 130 drones, of which 46 are jet, and [00:18:52] the normal percentage all month was 45 to [00:18:55] 55, almost half, yes, [00:18:58] now it has dropped to a third, that is, [00:19:02] the processes are opposite, we are more effective, [00:19:05] the Russians, therefore, launch fewer, are able to launch [00:19:09] fewer, because after all, our strikes on Russian [00:19:13] enterprises, they do not contribute to increasing [00:19:16] production. I immediately have several questions here, [00:19:19] first you mentioned about [00:19:22] Belgian ammunition, yes for F-16s. And what is this [00:19:26] scandal that the Western press writes that Belgium [00:19:29] is allegedly very slow with the maintenance [00:19:32] of F-16s, that it takes 40 weeks instead of a few weeks, and [00:19:36] half of our F-16 aviation cannot [00:19:40] take off, is this true, or is it some kind of [00:19:43] hype? No, the Belgian Minister of Defense said [00:19:46] nothing of the sort, we will hand over three more F-16s to you in the near [00:19:50] future, and the Russians are [00:19:53] improving their guidance systems, [00:19:56] for example, the French have improved [00:19:59] for us the system, well, not, [00:20:02] well, the defense system of this, meaning the onboard defense complex [00:20:06] of F-16 fighters. Uh-huh, that is, let's say [00:20:09] so, pilots say that no sortie is complete without that, without [00:20:13] that, well, to the front line, yes, for example, to [00:20:17] drop, let's say our KABs, [00:20:20] French KABs, yes, so we drop Hammer, well, and Ukrainian ones have [00:20:24] appeared now, to drop them, we need to [00:20:27] fly about 20-30 kilometers to the front [00:20:30] line, so not once was there a situation when they didn't launch [00:20:34] one, two or more missiles at us, and the onboard [00:20:37] complexes, well, we had no F-16 losses near the front, [00:20:41] the onboard defense complexes allowed these [00:20:44] missiles to be deflected to the side, well, there are many [00:20:47] methods, you can, well, for [00:20:50] example, create virtual targets, and a missile, it, a Russian missile, [00:20:54] especially, it's stupid, it can fly to, [00:20:57] let's say to the maximum heat source, if [00:21:01] there is infrared guidance, yes, or let's say to [00:21:04] the maximum signal strength, and [00:21:07] traps are made exactly like that, so that they burn with an excess, they [00:21:10] burn brighter and hotter than [00:21:14] a jet engine, well, [00:21:17] and although everything was improved there, but... well, the French have now [00:21:21] installed them for us, and the Belgians say, we couldn't just give them to [00:21:25] you, it needed France's permission, that's why we [00:21:28] were delayed, and in general, our terms are normal, we, [00:21:32] like American planes, which fought [00:21:36] in the Persian Gulf, yes, so do [00:21:39] Ukrainian fighters, 3-4 weeks and so, replacement, [00:21:43] full replacement, well, engine replacement, replacement of relevant [00:21:46] systems, control, checks of all aircraft [00:21:49] systems. and they return them to us, so it [00:21:53] was, let's say, a bird that, well, thank you for clarifying [00:21:56] this betrayal, which some MPs, or rather female MPs [00:22:00] started spreading, scandalously famous, but you [00:22:03] also mentioned another story about how the defense forces are working [00:22:07] proactively and trying to hit [00:22:09] factories, yes, that produce both missiles and [00:22:13] drones themselves, and here another interesting thing appeared, correct [00:22:16] me if I'm wrong, there were many reports. about [00:22:20] the defense forces destroying launchers, previously there was [00:22:24] no such number in the summer, for example, that is, some [00:22:28] kind of hunt for launchers began, both for jet drones and [00:22:31] accordingly for launch complexes of the same ballistics, or [00:22:34] not, [00:22:37] ah, not just hunting, but successful [00:22:40] hunting, yes, safari, you remember how many reactive [00:22:44] drones in September flew from Bryansk region, [00:22:48] yes, and now try to find a mention of [00:22:51] something flying, just something from Bryansk region, yes, drones [00:22:55] generally don't fly from there, that is, [00:22:58] most likely we have pretty well targeted this region [00:23:01] of Russia, yes, but as you simply understand, [00:23:04] when I, when before that they told us that it was impossible [00:23:08] to do, because we don't have this weapon, yes, small ballistics, [00:23:12] which can operatively cover this [00:23:14] launcher, then wait, how are we covering this [00:23:17] now, what methods are we using? [00:23:22] Well, that's a question for the General Staff, okay, let it be for now [00:23:26] so I can, I can guess how it's done, [00:23:29] and I'll make a note again that this is what I imagine [00:23:33] how it's done, uh-huh, yes, very well, [00:23:36] first, we also receive information from [00:23:39] allies, and we have already, with you and on other [00:23:42] broadcasts, I said that these launchers can be, [00:23:45] for example, how were S-4 launch systems destroyed? [00:23:48] They were destroyed on the march, [00:23:52] uh-huh, on the road, yes, yes, and there is a small range [00:23:56] of 250 km, there are 300 plus, [00:23:59] a little plus kilometers, they have to approach 50 km [00:24:03] to the border in Bryansk region, and 50 [00:24:06] km our scouts see, well, not even [00:24:10] crossing the border, uh-huh, to such [00:24:13] a distance, and we receive, let's say [00:24:16] Starlink also works at such a distance, uh-huh. That is, we [00:24:20] caught several such installations, well, for example, there was [00:24:23] information that in the area of Vygonichi, Bryansk [00:24:27] region, two S-400 launchers were destroyed, one [00:24:31] of them was shown in the photo, a missile, [00:24:34] well, unfortunately, I don't know if they were playing around, a missile, a drone, [00:24:37] well, it just hit the cabin, where all the [00:24:40] electronics are located, yes, unfortunately, four [00:24:43] pipes with missiles are [00:24:46] damaged, it's nicer when it hits the missiles. [00:24:50] It's nicer, but it hit the cabin, but still this launcher, [00:24:53] it's already finished, you can write it off, [00:24:57] well, maybe the pipes were empty, that is, the strike on the pipe, the Russians have already [00:25:01] launched, yes well, and still [00:25:04] the operator decided to hit the [00:25:07] cabin, because it's, because it's, let's say [00:25:10] so, it's a sure shot, it will definitely be, [00:25:13] yes, well, and if the missiles are empty, well, [00:25:17] then the installation of pipes will be replaced in [00:25:21] half an hour, they will put new ones, and the installation will work, [00:25:25] well, that is, strikes, yes, [00:25:28] well, reconnaissance information, [00:25:31] mid-strikes, including Bars, [00:25:34] a jet drone, it has [00:25:36] a decent speed, and it will definitely reach 50 km, [00:25:40] 60-70 km, in 20 [00:25:43] minutes, and this is exactly the time to deploy [00:25:47] and dismantle the complex, and if it was also caught [00:25:50] on the march, well, that's beautiful, [00:25:53] because it can be hit before launch. Last week [00:25:57] I pulled out my mobile phone, wanted to check the weather, and was [00:26:01] surprised to see outside. by feeling 15, that you are in Lim, [00:26:04] please, that you are in Lim, that I am in Lim, yes, [00:26:08] I have 25° during the day and 21° at night, [00:26:12] full tropics, and today we read, it's not Kyiv residents often with that [00:26:15] they met, that they were sent to Latin America, and today we already see [00:26:19] information that they are writing as if such a rep acts, [00:26:22] which has already substituted the coordinates of two Russian [00:26:25] ballistic missiles. Listen, this is a miracle then, [00:26:29] if a whole ballistic missile can be deceived in such a way. [00:26:33] It was about aeroballistics, well, as far as I remember, [00:26:37] so, this is not fresh news, but [00:26:41] these were daggers, mhm, and you [00:26:44] see that the Russians have not used daggers for half a year, [00:26:47] the reason is unclear, maybe they are inaccurate [00:26:51] by themselves, but what is a dagger, it is [00:26:54] the ability to reach [00:26:56] any, any region of Ukraine with a ballistic missile, [00:27:00] it's all the same. Lviv, [00:27:03] Yavoriv, so, there Uzhhorod, yes, [00:27:06] because they found that the range [00:27:09] of Iskander, it is only 350 +m, [00:27:13] there, well, 370, there, maybe, yes, that's it, and this, [00:27:17] let's say, is the areas that reach Kyiv, [00:27:20] it's already difficult to reach Zhytomyr, yes, with [00:27:24] a ballistic missile, but they still reach, but this is already the limit [00:27:27] of possibilities, the dagger flew to any [00:27:30] point of Ukraine and they stopped using it, either they [00:27:34] are vulnerable to rep, or [00:27:36] generally they have a low [00:27:40] accuracy and a high circular probable deviation [00:27:43] from the target in hundreds of meters, mhm, [00:27:47] but well, if they write that this is [00:27:51] Lima, then this seems to have [00:27:53] grounds for it, well, God grant, Mr. [00:27:57] Valerii, the last question, if we are already talking about ballistics, aeroballistics, [00:28:01] last week the president... showed, [00:28:04] FP7, yes, uh, please tell me, [00:28:08] is this a redesigned S-300, is this a modernized S300, [00:28:12] and this range of 200, 200 [00:28:15] km, is it purely for performing tactical tasks [00:28:18] at the front, or against, in the fight against [00:28:22] the Russian air threat to our rear, will it also be useful, [00:28:25] for example, during the same hunting for Russian [00:28:29] launchers near the border, what kind of, what kind of [00:28:33] product is this and why have we been waiting for it for so long? [00:28:36] Well, we waited a long time because, for example, no one in Europe [00:28:39] has ground-based ballistic missiles, no one has them at all, [00:28:43] no country even for 200 km, even for such a small [00:28:46] distance, even for such a distance, [00:28:50] there are no ballistic missiles, we just had [00:28:53] a point, a point and a point U, yes, those [00:28:57] missiles, there was a range of 100-120 km, [00:29:00] yes, now a leap. The range is [00:29:03] 250, 200-250 [00:29:06] km, and in general ballistic missiles are developed [00:29:09] for decades, there are many, let's say, [00:29:13] moments, there you particularly need to maintain the trajectory [00:29:17] and not just maintain the trajectory, [00:29:20] but you need to measure acceleration [00:29:23] very accurately, you know, I once talked [00:29:26] to American missile engineers who develop minutemen, [00:29:30] so they say that for ballistic intercontinental missiles, [00:29:34] the accuracy of acceleration is up [00:29:38] to the -12th degree, 11:00 before the digit, [00:29:41] wow, huge accuracy, so in order for the missile [00:29:45] to hit the target without additional guidance, you need to [00:29:48] create a very, very good [00:29:51] inertial system, but our missiles, [00:29:54] the ones they are developing, most likely they [00:29:58] will also have a guidance system at the final [00:30:00] stage, that would be very convenient, because then [00:30:04] the circular deviation would be measured in units [00:30:08] of meters, we had such systems, we showed them [00:30:11] at arms exhibitions before the war, [00:30:15] but as for this missile, indeed, this [00:30:18] missile was taken as a model, it seems, from the [00:30:22] S-300 complex, just [00:30:24] not 5V-55 or 48N6, I just can't [00:30:28] remember now, so we took [00:30:31] the same path as the Iranians, [00:30:34] for example, and the North Koreans, by the way, the Iranians also took [00:30:38] an anti-aircraft missile and gradually, gradually, gradually turned it [00:30:41] into a ballistic, practically intercontinental, mhm, somewhere [00:30:45] they added, somewhere they extended, [00:30:48] and this missile has two, in total, based on the [00:30:52] FP-7 missile, two missiles were created, the first [00:30:55] is an analogue of the American Atacms, [00:30:59] mhm, for hitting any targets.