ESPRESO — broadcast 20261012 143000 UTC 540 transcript segments Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking Data courtesy of The GDELT Project (https://www.gdeltproject.org/), from the Internet Archive TV News Archive. Machine transcription. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a verbatim quotation record. [00:00:00] that some look pale and have shortness of breath. measures are needed to minimize [00:00:04] Russia's attempts to regain the status [00:00:07] of a major geopolitical player, that is, Russia's actions [00:00:11] can be regarded as [00:00:13] indeed acts of aggression, [00:00:17] they, so to speak, are currently below [00:00:20] the threshold, the conditional threshold of declaring war, and [00:00:24] Poland reacts to this. We can point out [00:00:27] several directions that we... see today, this is, [00:00:30] firstly, projects within [00:00:34] NATO. Poland makes a significant contribution to [00:00:38] collective security within the alliance, and on October [00:00:41] 12, the commander of NATO armed forces in Europe is to [00:00:44] announce, so to speak, a plan of military actions, or [00:00:48] they called it a war plan, a plan for victory. In this [00:00:51] plan, they want, and by the way, this will be announced in Poland, and it is about [00:00:55] how NATO, as a military-political security [00:00:59] alliance... will react with military and [00:01:02] non-military measures to acts of aggression against [00:01:05] any of its members, and by the way, the NATO Secretary General also clearly [00:01:09] said that some things we simply don't see, we don't talk [00:01:13] about them, but we are already doing this, so that no one has illusions that we [00:01:16] are preparing. Another national component, [00:01:19] that is, there are partnership or [00:01:23] partner actions of the Polish leadership, as a member of the European Union [00:01:26] or, but there are own measures to ensure national security. If we... [00:01:30] analyze the volume [00:01:32] of weaponry that Poland is purchasing this [00:01:36] year, or in the coming year, that is, a massive rearmament of the armed forces [00:01:40] of the Republic of Poland, it's a fact, and by the way, something very similar is observed [00:01:44] in other neighboring countries [00:01:47] in the Baltics first and foremost. For example, [00:01:50] Estonians are moving one of their most combat-ready brigades closer to the Russian [00:01:54] border. This is also a factor, so to speak, [00:01:57] that should reduce a certain tension. Uh, [00:02:00] the level, the level of threat and so on. That is, there is a complex of measures, [00:02:04] but here, in my opinion, [00:02:07] in fact, we have to admit very frank things. [00:02:10] There are assessments of intelligence agencies, there are assessments of the expert [00:02:13] community, there are certain statements of politicians, but this does not yet mean [00:02:17] that any European state, it's not just about Poland or not [00:02:21] Poland, any European state, is aware of the level [00:02:24] of threat and understands the difference that individual measures [00:02:28] to counter Russian hybrid aggression are... one thing, and what is called [00:02:31] comprehensive, or total defense, total defense, or [00:02:35] something like a military state, although they don't like to talk [00:02:38] about it, that's something else. When society and states [00:02:42] have to proactively mobilize their [00:02:45] forces, not allowing aggression, including hybrid Russia, [00:02:48] and in case of some power phase or [00:02:52] some hostile actions below the threshold of war, to effectively [00:02:55] react to them, and on this matter there are many questions. [00:02:58] Not accidentally, Ursova... [00:03:02] when she made a report on the state of Europe, also literally a few [00:03:05] weeks ago, she drew attention to the fact that we must [00:03:08] develop a new security strategy for the European Union, [00:03:12] and we will start with response protocols to various threats, then [00:03:16] there is a vision to create something like [00:03:19] a collective security council of the European Union, that is, this is [00:03:23] no longer a national level, this is already a supranational level within the framework of a united [00:03:27] Europe, and this is an element... [00:03:30] so to speak, adequate proactive actions by [00:03:33] Europe in this regard, and if we analyze the actions of the [00:03:37] Polish leadership, then they really [00:03:40] Finland and the Baltic countries, they, so to speak, are the drivers of these [00:03:44] changes, because they are the first to feel [00:03:46] the increase in this level [00:03:49] of threat. Hybrid threats or [00:03:53] hybrid attacks also affect Bulgaria. [00:03:56] Recently, two civilian ships were hit by [00:03:59] marine drones, and this was also mentioned by [00:04:02] President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. Let's [00:04:06] listen to what he emphasized in his [00:04:09] speech. Last night, [00:04:12] two civilian ships were attacked in Bulgarian waters, [00:04:15] one sank, and the other suffered significant damage. [00:04:19] We sympathize with all those affected. The Ukrainian [00:04:23] defense forces did not conduct [00:04:26] any offensive operations in this area. This [00:04:30] regular tragedy with [00:04:33] civilian ships continues, continues [00:04:36] Russia's attempts to turn the western [00:04:39] part of the Black Sea into [00:04:43] absolutely unsuitable for navigation. [00:04:46] All data has been clarified with the Bulgarian side, our [00:04:50] naval forces contacted their colleagues [00:04:54] in Bulgaria, it was established that this is a Russian combined attack [00:04:58] by sea and air drones. [00:05:02] So, Mr. Serhii, what is the [00:05:04] tactical, and possibly strategic goal [00:05:08] of these strikes on, essentially [00:05:11] ships? Yes, civilian ships, one of [00:05:14] them sank, the crew, as far as we understand, [00:05:18] died. So strategically, what [00:05:21] does Russia want to achieve with this? We believe that [00:05:25] Russia in this case has several [00:05:28] strategic goals. The first, which [00:05:31] is obvious, is to distract our partners [00:05:34] from programs, from projects of assistance to Ukraine. They want [00:05:37] to achieve that due to the danger [00:05:40] to civilians. [00:05:42] or, for example, the danger of other communication routes, both [00:05:46] export and import, our [00:05:48] partners will say that the price is too high, and we cannot continue support [00:05:52] programs. This is such an obvious goal, [00:05:56] but I would look at this situation more broadly. From what [00:06:00] side? Firstly, it's probably already the second thing, [00:06:03] it seems to me, and this is not only my opinion, that the Russian Federation [00:06:07] is testing the level of NATO's response and the level [00:06:10] of response of individual countries. [00:06:12] And perhaps Bulgaria here was also not chosen by chance, because [00:06:16] certain historical, cultural ties between Bulgaria and [00:06:20] the Soviet Union, then Russia, existed and [00:06:23] still exist. And when the object of attack, it is [00:06:26] the former, let's say, partner state [00:06:30] that acts, well, former, again, then this raises [00:06:34] a double question, what is it, and we think that this is a test, what [00:06:38] will Bulgaria do, what will NATO do? There are two options, either [00:06:41] the fifth article of NATO on collective defense is activated, but [00:06:44] throughout history we see that it was only activated after terrorist [00:06:48] attacks on the United States, or [00:06:51] other articles of joint [00:06:55] NATO actions are activated, they also exist, and there are also military measures, [00:06:58] for example, escorting civilian, civilian [00:07:02] ships by naval forces of the united navies, NATO, [00:07:06] or, for example, air patrolling, early detection or [00:07:09] neutralization of Russian strike forces that operate in the Black [00:07:13] Sea corridor, that is, these are also military measures, this is not direct [00:07:17] attacks, retaliatory strikes against Russia, but this is also a response from [00:07:20] the alliance, well, roughly like that. [00:07:23] Mr. Serhii, thank you for your thoughts, for your expert [00:07:27] analysis. Serhii Halushko, military expert, head [00:07:30] of the department of the Center for Security Studies, National Institute for Strategic [00:07:34] Studies and director of defense programs [00:07:37] of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future. Well, [00:07:41] we... move on and talk about [00:07:45] exports from the Persian Gulf countries, [00:07:48] which have practically returned to the level [00:07:51] that was before the start of the war between Israel, [00:07:54] Iran and the United States [00:07:57] of America. Why does Trump accuse [00:08:00] Ukraine of a diesel [00:08:03] deficit in the world? Let's watch [00:08:06] a report from our colleagues about the current [00:08:09] situation in the Persian Gulf. [00:08:13] Oil exports from the Persian Gulf countries have almost returned to the level that [00:08:17] was before the start of the war between Israel and the US against Iran. [00:08:21] At the same time, the resumption of supplies does not yet mean the return of normal operations [00:08:24] of the energy market. More and more crude oil passes through [00:08:28] the Strait of Hormuz, but significantly less finished [00:08:31] fuel. According to analytical company [00:08:33] Kpler, as of October 3, an average of 10 [00:08:37] million barrels of oil cargo passed through the Strait of Hormuz [00:08:40] per day. This is about 76% of [00:08:44] the pre-war level, but only more than a million barrels accounted [00:08:48] for petroleum products, gasoline, diesel and other finished fuel, which is [00:08:51] approximately 11% of all cargo. Before the war in the Middle [00:08:55] East, the share of petroleum products usually exceeded [00:08:58] 20%. The main reason is disruptions in the operation [00:09:01] of oil refineries in the region, this creates a separate problem [00:09:05] for the world market, crude oil can continue to flow to [00:09:09] consumers, but to produce diesel and gasoline it... needs [00:09:13] to be processed. The largest part of the additional volumes that are currently [00:09:16] coming out of the Persian Gulf goes to Asia, China, [00:09:20] Japan and South Korea have their own oil refining capacities and [00:09:24] a significant part of the produced fuel is left for the domestic [00:09:27] market. At the same time, the resumption of oil exports remains [00:09:30] dependent on the safety of navigation. Since September [00:09:33] 28, the British service has recorded seven attacks on [00:09:36] ships near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this, in September [00:09:40] crude oil exports from the region, excluding [00:09:43] Iran, reached at least 16 million barrels [00:09:46] per day. As experts say, the main change now is not only in the volume [00:09:50] of exports, but in its structure. The world market is receiving more and more [00:09:54] crude oil, but significantly less finished [00:09:57] fuel. [00:09:59] And we welcome our guest, Oksana [00:10:02] Ishchuk, Executive Director of the Center for Global Studies Strategy [00:10:06] 21st Century. Ms. Oksana, we [00:10:10] welcome you. Good day. Ms. [00:10:13] Oksana, let's start with Trump and Ukraine. [00:10:17] So, the President of the United States of America almost [00:10:20] daily declares that the problems with [00:10:23] fuel, in particular, [00:10:25] in the world are precisely due to Ukraine's strikes [00:10:29] on Russian oil refineries, [00:10:32] but there is no factual confirmation of these [00:10:35] words. There is confirmation regarding [00:10:39] the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, generally in the countries [00:10:43] of the Persian Gulf, why does the President of the United States of America [00:10:46] constantly talk about this and emphasize [00:10:49] it? [00:10:52] Trump has two reasons for this, firstly, these are interim. because in [00:10:55] November he needs to maintain his [00:10:58] rating and distract, so to speak, the attention [00:11:02] of the average American voter [00:11:05] from [00:11:08] what is happening in Iran, that is, [00:11:11] actually such a political simplification, yes, it [00:11:14] is caused precisely by Trump's [00:11:18] attempt to shift responsibility to Ukraine [00:11:21] and to the Democrats. What the International... [00:11:25] agency says is that in the last eight [00:11:28] months the price of oil and [00:11:31] petroleum products has indeed increased [00:11:34] due to the war in Iran, and not due to Ukraine's [00:11:38] strikes on Russian oil refineries. However, it should be [00:11:41] noted that Russia historically was [00:11:45] the second largest exporter of diesel to the world market after [00:11:48] the United States. And it was precisely Ukrainian strikes that [00:11:52] caused. [00:11:55] caused a reduction in oil refining in Russia, and [00:11:59] accordingly, Russia was forced [00:12:02] to impose a ban on [00:12:05] the export of diesel to the world [00:12:08] market, that is, Ukrainian strikes are [00:12:11] a secondary, but not the main [00:12:14] reason for the sharp increase [00:12:18] in prices on the world market, which has already lasted more than 8 [00:12:21] months, and the main reason is... [00:12:25] the war that Trump started in Iran and the blocking of the Strait of [00:12:29] Hormuz. Why has Trump now [00:12:33] become more active, and is actively talking about this, about the fact [00:12:37] that Ukrainian strikes are the main reason? [00:12:40] Here there are two factors. The first factor is the [00:12:44] domestic political situation, that is, he is trying again [00:12:48] to shift responsibility to the Democrats and Ukraine for [00:12:51] his actions in the Strait of Hormuz in Iran. And the second reason [00:12:55] is an attempt to put pressure on [00:12:59] Ukraine in order to achieve an energy [00:13:02] truce. Ms. Oksana, you [00:13:05] have already started talking about diesel [00:13:08] exports, about details, but let's add a little [00:13:12] more information. So, who [00:13:15] exports the most diesel? According to the results [00:13:18] of 2025, the global [00:13:21] volume of diesel fuel exports amounted to about eight [00:13:25] barrels per day, almost half of the world's supplies [00:13:28] are provided by five countries. In first place [00:13:31] are the United States of America. The country exports a little more than [00:13:35] a million barrels of diesel per day, or [00:13:38] 15% of the world's volume. Russia [00:13:41] occupies the second position, about 800 [00:13:44] thousand barrels per day, or 9.5% [00:13:48] of world exports. After the European [00:13:51] Union introduced an embargo, Russian supplies [00:13:55] reoriented from the European market to the countries of Asia, [00:13:58] Africa and Latin America. The third country [00:14:02] is Saudi Arabia, followed by India and [00:14:05] South Korea. At the same time, the largest regional [00:14:09] exporter is Europe - [00:14:11] 35.3% of world supplies. A significant [00:14:15] part of this volume falls on trade between [00:14:18] the countries of the European Union themselves. [00:14:22] So, Ms. Oksana, if [00:14:25] we detail, then of course, we [00:14:29] are talking about the Middle East, and [00:14:33] is it really possible to talk about the restoration [00:14:36] of trade, economic activity in [00:14:40] the Middle East, or is it still very [00:14:44] difficult to say that import, [00:14:48] export has returned to the level it was before [00:14:51] February 2026? Yes, well, according to the latest data that [00:14:56] you have already announced in the introduction to our broadcast, according to [00:15:00] the Kpler agency, [00:15:04] the restoration, in particular of crude oil flows, is taking [00:15:07] place at a level of approximately 10 million barrels per day, and this [00:15:11] is approximately 74% [00:15:14] of the pre-war level, but at the same time, it should be noted that [00:15:17] this means passage through the Strait of [00:15:21] Hormuz, and... Again, [00:15:24] these Kpler data [00:15:28] differ from the actual data on the actual passage of ships [00:15:31] through the Strait of Hormuz, because they give such a [00:15:34] high figure for oil exports, while noting [00:15:38] that on October 7, for example, [00:15:41] 10 tankers and commercial [00:15:44] vessels passed, and on October 6, [00:15:48] seven tankers and commercial vessels passed in total, while [00:15:51] before the war, the passage of ships through the Strait of [00:15:55] Hormuz was approximately 120-125 ships per [00:15:58] day, and we understand that some [00:16:02] ships disable their [00:16:06] safety [00:16:07] transponders, so they [00:16:10] do not detect these vessels. Oil [00:16:14] flow has resumed, yes, [00:16:17] but it has also resumed due to the operation [00:16:20] of the Saudi Arabia East-West [00:16:23] pipeline, and also due to the operation [00:16:26] of the Khabshan-Fujairah pipeline in [00:16:30] the UAE, [00:16:33] and because of this, the volumes [00:16:36] of exports, in particular of crude oil, are increasing. Why are [00:16:40] petroleum products and diesel not recovering? Firstly, [00:16:44] oil refineries were hit, [00:16:46] particularly in Saudi [00:16:50] Arabia, which, according to your data, which you just [00:16:53] showed, was the third largest [00:16:56] historical exporter of diesel in the world. [00:17:00] Currently, in 2026, [00:17:02] Saudi Arabia's diesel export figures, particularly [00:17:06] due to problems... in the Strait of Hormuz, have [00:17:10] significantly worsened, and Saudi Arabia [00:17:13] is already somewhere in eighth or ninth place. [00:17:17] Therefore, diesel, it is harder [00:17:21] to export, because you need to first refine crude [00:17:25] oil to get diesel. Not all oil refineries [00:17:29] have recovered in the Persian Gulf [00:17:31] countries. Oil can be stored in strategic [00:17:35] reserves, extracted from fields, and immediately sent for [00:17:38] export. Therefore, first oil recovers, again, [00:17:42] volumes have recovered due to exports [00:17:45] through additional logistical, bypass [00:17:49] routes. With diesel and oil products, [00:17:52] it's a bit more complicated. Here not only Russia is playing on the market, which as the second [00:17:56] exporter has [00:17:59] limited its volumes [00:18:03] of diesel on the world market, but also China's position is also [00:18:06] playing. China, which was traditionally also one of the large [00:18:10] exporters of diesel, but in recent weeks [00:18:14] it has also been limiting the export of petroleum products to [00:18:17] the market. Therefore, we have such a situation that [00:18:21] the movement of ships, it [00:18:24] is unstable, [00:18:27] we cannot talk about a complete recovery, [00:18:30] but we do record in the last week of September, at [00:18:34] the beginning of October, a recovery. [00:18:37] approximately 3/4 to the pre-war level of crude [00:18:41] oil exports, a partial, [00:18:43] insignificant recovery of diesel and petroleum products, [00:18:47] however, this does not indicate that de-escalation [00:18:50] is taking place, but rather that these are [00:18:54] temporary improvements, but [00:18:56] stable ship movement has not been restored, and further [00:18:59] disruptions will also be felt due to, in particular, the situation [00:19:03] in the Red Sea, the situation... Ms. Oksana, what about [00:19:10] prices? We see that prices, in principle, [00:19:14] are not falling either for oil or for [00:19:17] fuel, already finished fuel, so [00:19:21] gasoline prices in Ukraine, naturally, in [00:19:24] Europe, in the United States of America, they are either [00:19:28] high, or even growing a little [00:19:31] more. What affects this? You say that [00:19:35] there is still some movement, but... [00:19:38] we do not see any decrease. What is your [00:19:41] forecast for what will happen, let's say, [00:19:45] at least until the end of this year, can we expect [00:19:48] some stabilization or decrease in prices on world [00:19:52] markets? [00:19:55] Yes, well, the situation with crude oil prices was very [00:19:58] illustrative in September. The price [00:20:01] held at approximately $98 per barrel of crude [00:20:05] oil, but when there were Houthi [00:20:08] attacks on the East-West pipeline and [00:20:11] it was temporarily stopped [00:20:15] exporting through it, there were also Houthi attacks on the port of Yanbu, and [00:20:18] shipments from it ceased, then these [00:20:21] Houthi attacks immediately caused an increase in crude [00:20:24] oil prices on the market, this was in mid-September by [00:20:28] 11%, approximately from $98 [00:20:32] to $110, oil rose for [00:20:36] a few days, respectively, the situation [00:20:39] here in the Persian Gulf countries is [00:20:42] the main factor affecting [00:20:46] the price of crude oil, and accordingly, [00:20:50] the price of crude oil also affects [00:20:53] petroleum products, diesel. In addition, we understand [00:20:56] that insurers, they [00:20:59] also have their risk premium, yes, this [00:21:02] fear premium, as soon as any unrest occurs in the Red [00:21:06] Sea or in the Persian [00:21:09] Gulf, immediately, without waiting for [00:21:12] improvement, insurers add this [00:21:15] premium, and accordingly the price increases, that is, there is an actual [00:21:18] increase in... physical volumes, and there is an increase [00:21:22] in markets, that is, a paper increase, [00:21:26] which is called a fear premium, and [00:21:29] it can increase very quickly, [00:21:32] this price increase, and very quickly it can [00:21:36] roll back depending on the geopolitical situation. Regarding [00:21:39] the forecast, in the last [00:21:43] 8-9 months, the price has held around [00:21:45] $98-100 per barrel. There were [00:21:48] historical peaks [00:21:51] in early March, approximately $120 per [00:21:54] barrel, they lasted a short time, a few [00:21:57] days. They say that the most [00:22:00] favorable price, both for exporters and [00:22:03] for importing countries, [00:22:07] which allows the industry not to fall into [00:22:11] recession and also for exporters [00:22:14] to have a good margin, is approximately $90 [00:22:18] per barrel, 90. 98, [00:22:20] respectively, the forecast is [00:22:24] that by the end of this year, the price [00:22:27] will remain in these ranges [00:22:30] of $98-100 per barrel, and I don't [00:22:34] think there will be a very large increase to the level [00:22:37] of $120, because this is unprofitable for both [00:22:40] industry, and [00:22:44] it is profitable for exporting countries, but the global [00:22:47] industry will suffer much... more, and exporting [00:22:51] countries will then try to regulate the price a little, [00:22:54] for example, we see the latest actions [00:22:57] that the G7 countries, in order [00:23:00] to prevent the price of diesel from rising, [00:23:04] agreed to release additional [00:23:07] додаткових, [00:23:09] barrels of petroleum products [00:23:12] and oil into the market, [00:23:15] so they will try to keep the price at [00:23:19] the current level, and a sharp increase [00:23:23] is unprofitable primarily for [00:23:26] global industry. Who is primarily [00:23:29] affected by the prices of oil and [00:23:33] fuel, gasoline, diesel, which countries [00:23:36] suffer the most and what to do in such a [00:23:38] case? [00:23:42] Countries suffer, first [00:23:45] of all, Asian countries suffer, [00:23:49] in principle, European countries suffer. If we talk about the industry, it is [00:23:52] industry and, in particular, the agricultural [00:23:56] sector, because in order to harvest [00:23:59] or sow, it is necessary [00:24:01] to refuel equipment. Accordingly, [00:24:05] we understand that the global increase in oil [00:24:09] prices is reflected equally, how, [00:24:13] I apologize, it is reflected equally both [00:24:16] in European countries and in Asian countries. [00:24:21] Reserves of countries [00:24:24] are decreasing, strategic reserves [00:24:27] are decreasing, the ability [00:24:30] to react and the ability of this maneuvering step [00:24:34] of the G7 countries [00:24:37] is falling due to the fact that reserves are decreasing in countries, in particular, for example, in the United States, there is currently [00:24:41] the lowest historical maximum [00:24:44] of strategic oil reserves, in particular, they currently have [00:24:47] 283. barrels, this lowest level was [00:24:52] last observed in 1972, [00:24:55] therefore, high prices are unprofitable for any [00:24:58] country, they affect everyone equally, [00:25:02] we understand that in the United States the situation is a little better, because [00:25:06] they have their own production, they are the largest exporter in [00:25:09] the world, both of diesel and oil. [00:25:13] European countries suffer, Asian countries also [00:25:16] suffer. Thank you for your thoughts, for your expert [00:25:20] analysis. Oksana Ishchuk, Executive Director [00:25:24] of the Center for Global Strategy 21st [00:25:28] Century was with us on air. So, [00:25:31] these were the main geopolitical [00:25:34] events of the week. You were watching the program Svitohlyad [00:25:38] and Andrii Smoli. Stay with us. [00:25:42] Now, the main thing. [00:25:44] нами. [00:25:56] an information and analytical show about [00:25:59] Ukraine and the world, politics, economics, war and... security [00:26:03] without manipulation, emotions and simplifications, we analyze [00:26:06] the events of the day, decisions that are being made right now and [00:26:10] their consequences for the country and society. Hosts and [00:26:13] experts explain complex things clearly, [00:26:16] this is not just a news broadcast, it is a guide in the complex [00:26:20] information reality. Now the main thing, [00:26:23] in the evening on Espresso. 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