ESPRESO — broadcast
20261012 203000 UTC
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[00:00:00] infrastructure. In Germany, explosive devices were found at
[00:00:03] an energy facility near the border with Poland, and in
[00:00:07] Poland in September, an arson attack occurred at the territory of a Starlink
[00:00:10] satellite communication ground station. In parallel, European countries are recording
[00:00:14] cyberattacks, intelligence activity, the use of drones near military
[00:00:18] facilities, and attempts to influence through disinformation. Experts
[00:00:21] note that attacks can occur without a declaration of
[00:00:24] war, involving saboteurs, cyber tools, and
[00:00:28] drones.
[00:00:31] And we are joined by our next guest. In our
[00:00:34] studio is Serhiy Alushko, military expert, head of the department
[00:00:37] of the National Institute for Strategic Studies. Mr. Serhiy,
[00:00:40] welcome. Good day. So, Mr. Serhiy,
[00:00:44] about a hypothetical, and possibly real war
[00:00:47] between Russia and Europe. Does the
[00:00:50] European Union currently feel the threat of war?
[00:00:53] It is clear that this could be a war, both hybrid
[00:00:57] and real. There could be... hypothetically some
[00:01:01] attacks, representatives of special services of various
[00:01:04] European Union countries say so,
[00:01:08] but is there really some preparation underway and
[00:01:11] is a certain direct invasion by the Russian
[00:01:15] Federation not ruled out? Okay, well, over the past
[00:01:18] week, we have witnessed
[00:01:22] the information space being flooded
[00:01:25] with questions on this matter. It
[00:01:28] is happening. Since this Wednesday, an official
[00:01:31] statement from Danish intelligence, there was
[00:01:34] a meeting on the 30th of
[00:01:38] EU ambassadors where issues of
[00:01:41] crisis response protocols were being worked out in the context of Russian threats,
[00:01:45] there are a number of statements by political leaders, for example, the head of German
[00:01:49] intelligence or, again, the minister of foreign affairs of Germany on this
[00:01:52] matter, that is, on the one hand, we can
[00:01:56] say that for Europe there is nothing new in this.
[00:01:59] that yes, they see unfriendly,
[00:02:02] or, let's say, frankly, hostile actions from the Russian
[00:02:05] Federation, but the intrigue begins with
[00:02:08] whether this level of concern and this level
[00:02:12] of readiness that existed yesterday and exists today, whether it is enough,
[00:02:16] whether it makes sense to see what the Russian
[00:02:19] Federation will do in the near future, or in a more
[00:02:23] distant perspective, and how Europe should either prevent this
[00:02:26] or at least react?
[00:02:30] So, Mr. Serhiy, about Poland, Poland
[00:02:33] is actually at the forefront, yes, of preparing
[00:02:37] for this possible war, possible
[00:02:40] Russian aggression, and it is clear that there is also the position
[00:02:44] of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, there is
[00:02:46] the position, in particular, of
[00:02:49] other politicians, so let's, by the way, listen now
[00:02:53] to what the President of Poland said about
[00:02:56] this in 2010-2015. Bronisław
[00:03:00] Komorowski:
[00:03:05] Russia can only intensify such actions
[00:03:08] that we are already dealing with anyway.
[00:03:11] Recently, the Polish Ministry of Defense released
[00:03:14] information that in Polish pre-trial detention centers and
[00:03:18] prisons there are 50 people
[00:03:21] accused or convicted of subversive
[00:03:24] activities in favor of Russia.
[00:03:27] Most often - this is a new type of spy. Like
[00:03:30] a saboteur, such a single-use
[00:03:33] one, who is paid via
[00:03:37] the internet, and often very meager
[00:03:40] money for committing arson,
[00:03:44] undermining railway tracks, etc.,
[00:03:48] so we are already dealing with this, it can
[00:03:51] intensify, in addition, of course,
[00:03:55] Russia can resort
[00:03:58] far-reaching... actions of this
[00:04:01] type. In some countries where,
[00:04:05] for example, there is a large Russian national
[00:04:08] minority. The Baltic countries
[00:04:12] may be particularly
[00:04:12] vulnerable here.
[00:04:16] By the way, on this occasion, let's probably listen to
[00:04:20] the Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk. He also says
[00:04:24] that the threat from the Russian Federation is actually
[00:04:27] real.
[00:04:30] The threat, the threat from the East is a real,
[00:04:33] tangible danger. We know well how important it is for Polish
[00:04:37] soldiers, the Polish army, the Polish state to be ready for
[00:04:40] any scenario. Today, the enemy and ally
[00:04:44] know well that Poland will not allow any effective
[00:04:47] актів агресії проти нас, і ані ворог, ані союзник
[00:04:51] will decide which path Poles will take. This is what
[00:04:55] true sovereignty
[00:04:59] So, sir. As we can see, Poland is indeed at this
[00:05:02] forefront of preparation, so it is clear that the Baltic
[00:05:06] countries are nearby, which also absolutely
[00:05:09] understand what may happen next, and we already see this...
[00:05:12] hybrid war, actually on their territory, on their
[00:05:16] borders, so, if we talk about Poland, what
[00:05:20] this is like, this pre-war state, what
[00:05:23] it could be and in your opinion, how effectively
[00:05:27] Poland is currently preparing for a possible
[00:05:30] war, I will quote our minister, the Minister of Foreign
[00:05:33] Affairs on this matter, he very aptly said
[00:05:36] that our European partners should recognize
[00:05:40] that Russia is already waging war against them, even if they don't want to talk about it
[00:05:44] or realize it, that is, if we
[00:05:47] assume that this war should involve
[00:05:51] some tank armadas, air or missile strikes,
[00:05:54] then neither Russia nor Europe wants
[00:05:57] this and is not ready for it, therefore
[00:06:00] Russia in its plans, and not even hiding it, for
[00:06:04] example, in the Russian law on the fundamentals of foreign policy
[00:06:07] of the Russian Federation, it is very clearly written
[00:06:10] that Russia the actions of Western
[00:06:13] countries as a threat to Poland in the first
[00:06:16] place, as one of the closest neighbors, it believes
[00:06:19] that some measures are necessary to minimize
[00:06:23] Russia's attempts to become, to regain the status
[00:06:26] of a great, a great geopolitical player, that is, Russia's
[00:06:30] actions can be regarded as
[00:06:33] truly acts of aggression,
[00:06:36] they, let's say, are currently carried out below
[00:06:39] the threshold, the conditional threshold of declaration. And
[00:06:43] Poland reacts to this, we can
[00:06:46] say several directions that we see today, first
[00:06:50] of all, projects within
[00:06:53] NATO, Poland makes a significant contribution to
[00:06:57] collective security within the alliance, and on October
[00:07:01] 12, the commander of NATO armed forces in Europe is to
[00:07:04] announce, let's say, a plan of military actions, or
[00:07:08] they called it a war plan, a victory plan, in this
[00:07:11] plan they want and, by the way, it will be announced in Poland, and it is
[00:07:15] about how NATO, as a military-political security
[00:07:18] alliance, will react with military and
[00:07:21] to acts of aggression against
[00:07:25] any of its members, and by the way, NATO Secretary General also clearly
[00:07:29] we just don't see, we don't talk
[00:07:32] about them, but we are already doing this, so that no one has illusions that we
[00:07:36] are preparing, another national component,
[00:07:39] that is, there are partnership or...
[00:07:42] partnership actions of the Polish leadership, as a member of the EU or
[00:07:46] NATO, and there are own measures to ensure national security, if we
[00:07:49] analyze the volume
[00:07:52] of weapons that Poland is purchasing this
[00:07:56] year, in the near future, that is, large-scale rearmament of the armed forces
[00:07:59] of the Republic of Poland, a fact, and by the way, something very similar is observed
[00:08:03] in other Baltic
[00:08:06] neighboring countries in the first place, for example,
[00:08:09] Estonians are moving one of the most combat-ready units to
[00:08:13] a factor, let's say,
[00:08:17] which should reduce a certain tension,
[00:08:20] the level, the level of threats and so on, that is, there is a set of measures,
[00:08:23] but here, in my opinion, in fact,
[00:08:27] we must acknowledge very frank things, there are
[00:08:30] assessments of intelligence agencies, there are assessments of the expert community, there are
[00:08:34] certain statements by politicians, but this does not yet mean that any
[00:08:38] European state, it's not just Poland or not Poland, any European
[00:08:41] state, does it realize the level of threat and
[00:08:45] understand the difference that separate measures to counter Russian hybrid
[00:08:49] aggression are one thing, and what is called comprehensive or total
[00:08:52] defense, total defense or something like a military
[00:08:56] state, although they don't like to talk about it, is completely different,
[00:08:59] when society and states must proactively
[00:09:03] mobilize their forces to prevent
[00:09:06] Russia, and in case of some
[00:09:09] силової phase or some... hostile actions below
[00:09:13] the threshold of war, to effectively react to them, and there are many
[00:09:16] questions about this, it is no coincidence
[00:09:18] that Ursula von der Leyen, when she gave
[00:09:22] a report on the state of Europe, also just a few weeks ago, drew
[00:09:26] attention to the fact that we must develop a new
[00:09:29] security strategy for the European Union, and we
[00:09:32] will start with response protocols for various threats, then there
[00:09:35] is a vision to create something like
[00:09:39] a collective security council of the European Union.
[00:09:43] Uh-uh, that is, it is level within a united
[00:09:46] Europe, and these are elements, well,
[00:09:50] let's say, adequate preemptive actions by
[00:09:53] Europe in this regard, and if we analyze the actions of the Polish
[00:09:57] leadership, then they really, they, Finland, and
[00:10:01] the Baltic countries, they, let's say, are the drivers of these changes, because
[00:10:04] they are the first to feel themselves
[00:10:07] the growth of this level of threat, under
[00:10:10] hybrid threats - hybrid attacks also
[00:10:14] affect Bulgaria,
[00:10:16] recently two sea vessels,
[00:10:20] civilian vessels were hit by sea drones, and the President
[00:10:24] of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, spoke about
[00:10:27] this. Let's listen to what he emphasized in
[00:10:31] his speech. Last night, in the waters
[00:10:35] of Bulgaria, two civilian vessels were attacked,
[00:10:38] one sank, the other received significant damage.
[00:10:42] We sympathize with all who suffered. Ukrainian
[00:10:46] defense forces did not conduct any attacks in this area
[00:10:49] of the sea. This latest
[00:10:53] tragedy with... civilian vessels
[00:10:56] continues, continues Russia's attempts
[00:10:59] to turn the western part of the Black Sea into
[00:11:02] absolutely unsuitable for
[00:11:05] navigation. All data was clarified with the Bulgarian
[00:11:08] side, our naval forces
[00:11:12] contacted colleagues in Bulgaria, it was established that this was
[00:11:16] a Russian combined attack with sea and air
[00:11:19] drones. So, Mr. Serhiy,
[00:11:22] what is the tactical, and possibly
[00:11:25] strategic goal of these strikes
[00:11:29] on, in fact, ships, vessels, yes,
[00:11:32] civilian vessels, one of them sank, the crew,
[00:11:36] as we understand, died, so
[00:11:39] strategically, what does Russia want to achieve
[00:11:42] with this, we believe that Russia in this
[00:11:46] case has several strategic
[00:11:49] goals, the first, which is obvious, is to
[00:11:52] divert our partners from programs, projects of assistance
[00:11:55] to Ukraine, they want to achieve that due to the danger
[00:11:59] of civilian navigation, or, for example,
[00:12:03] the danger of other communication routes, both export and
[00:12:06] import, our partners will say that the price
[00:12:09] is too high, and we cannot continue support programs, this is
[00:12:13] such a goal that is obvious, but I would look
[00:12:16] at this situation more broadly, from what side,
[00:12:19] first of all, this is probably already the second, it
[00:12:23] seems to me, and this is not only my opinion, that the Russian Federation
[00:12:26] of NATO's response and the level
[00:12:30] of response of individual countries, and
[00:12:32] probably Bulgaria here was also not chosen by chance, because
[00:12:36] certain historical, cultural ties between Bulgaria and
[00:12:40] the Soviet Union, then Russia existed and
[00:12:42] still exist, and when the object of attack is precisely
[00:12:46] the former, let's say,
[00:12:50] that acts, well, the former, again, then it
[00:12:53] raises a double question. What is this and we think that this
[00:12:56] is a test, what will Bulgaria do, what will NATO do?
[00:12:59] There are two options: either Article 5 of NATO on collective
[00:13:03] defense is activated, but throughout history we see that it was only
[00:13:07] activated after terrorist attacks on the United States,
[00:13:11] or other articles of joint NATO
[00:13:14] actions are activated, they also exist and there are also military measures,
[00:13:18] for example, escorting civilian, civilian
[00:13:22] vessels by warships of the combined forces with NATO, or,
[00:13:25] for example, air patrolling, early detection or
[00:13:29] neutralization of Russian strike weapons operating in the Black
[00:13:33] Sea, that is, these are also military measures, these are not direct
[00:13:36] attacks, retaliatory strikes against Russia, but this is also a response from
[00:13:40] the alliance, well, something like that.
[00:13:43] Mr. Serhiy, thank you for your thoughts, for your expert
[00:13:46] analysis. Serhiy Halushko, military expert, head
[00:13:50] of the department of the security research center, National Institute of Strategic
[00:13:54] Studies, and director of defense programs
[00:13:57] of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future. Well,
[00:14:01] and we move on and talk about
[00:14:04] exports from Persian Gulf countries, which
[00:14:08] have practically returned to the level that was
[00:14:11] before the start of the war between Israel, Iran, and
[00:14:15] the United States of America. Why does Trump
[00:14:19] accuse Ukraine of the deficit
[00:14:23] of diesel in the world? Let's watch
[00:14:26] a report from our colleagues about the current situation
[00:14:30] in the Persian Gulf.
[00:14:33] Oil exports from Persian Gulf countries have almost returned to the level
[00:14:36] that was before the start of the war between Israel and the US against Iran.
[00:14:40] At the same time, the resumption of supplies does not yet mean the return to normal operation
[00:14:44] of the energy market. More and more crude oil passes
[00:14:47] through the Strait of Hormuz, but significantly less finished
[00:14:50] fuel. According to analytical company Kpler, as of the third
[00:14:55] of October, an average of 10 million barrels of oil
[00:14:58] cargo passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day, which is about
[00:15:02] 76% of the pre-war level. However, only
[00:15:05] more than a million barrels accounted for petroleum products, gasoline, diesel,
[00:15:09] and other finished fuels, which is approximately 11%
[00:15:13] of all cargo. Before the war in the Middle East, the share of petroleum products
[00:15:16] usually exceeded 20%. The main
[00:15:19] reason is disruptions in the operation of oil refineries in
[00:15:23] the region. This creates a separate problem for the world market: crude
[00:15:26] oil can continue to flow to consumers, but for
[00:15:30] the production of diesel and gasoline, it needs to be refined. The largest
[00:15:34] part of the additional volumes that are currently coming out of the Persian
[00:15:37] Gulf is heading to Asia. China, Japan, and South Korea
[00:15:41] have their own oil refining capacities and leave a significant part
[00:15:44] of the produced fuel for the domestic market. At the same time,
[00:15:48] the recovery of oil exports remains dependent on the safety
[00:15:51] of navigation. Since September 28, the British service
[00:15:54] has recorded seven attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz.
[00:15:57] Despite this, in September, crude oil exports from
[00:16:01] the region, excluding Iran, reached at least
[00:16:04] 16 million barrels per day. As experts say, the main
[00:16:08] change now is not only in the volume of exports, but in its structure.
[00:16:11] The world market is receiving more and more crude oil, but significantly
[00:16:15] less finished fuel.
[00:16:19] And we are joined by our guest Oksana
[00:16:22] Ishchuk, Executive Director of the Center for Global Studies Strategy
[00:16:25] XXI Century. Ms. Oksana, we
[00:16:29] welcome you. Good day. Ms. Oksana,
[00:16:33] let's start with Trump and Ukraine. Yes, the President
[00:16:37] of the United States of America almost daily
[00:16:40] states that problems with fuel,
[00:16:43] particularly diesel, in the world are precisely due to
[00:16:47] Ukraine's strikes on Russian
[00:16:50] oil refineries, however, there is no factual
[00:16:54] confirmation of these words,
[00:16:57] there is confirmation regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz,
[00:17:00] in general in the countries of the Persian Gulf, why
[00:17:04] does the President of the United States of America constantly talk about this and
[00:17:08] emphasize it.
[00:17:11] Trump has two reasons for this: first, these are the midterm elections,
[00:17:14] because in November he needs to maintain his
[00:17:18] rating and distract, so to speak, the attention
[00:17:21] of the average American voter
[00:17:24] from
[00:17:28] what is happening in Iran, that is,
[00:17:30] actually such a political simplification, yes, it
[00:17:34] is caused precisely by the attempt
[00:17:37] by Trump to shift responsibility to Ukraine and to
[00:17:41] the Democrats. What the International Energy
[00:17:44] Agency says is that over the past 8
[00:17:47] months the price of oil
[00:17:50] and petroleum products has precisely increased
[00:17:54] due to the war in Iran, and not due to Ukraine's
[00:17:57] strikes on Russian refineries. However, here
[00:18:00] it should be noted that Russia
[00:18:03] historically was the second exporter of diesel to the world
[00:18:07] market after the United States, and it was precisely
[00:18:10] Ukrainian strikes that
[00:18:11] caused caused
[00:18:15] a reduction in oil refining in Russia, and
[00:18:19] accordingly Russia was forced
[00:18:21] to introduce a ban on
[00:18:24] diesel exports to the world
[00:18:27] market, that is, Ukrainian strikes are
[00:18:31] a secondary, but not the main
[00:18:34] reason for the sharp increase
[00:18:37] in prices on the world market, which has lasted for more than
[00:18:41] eight months, and the main reason
[00:18:43] is the war that Trump started in
[00:18:47] Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
[00:18:49] And why is Trump now
[00:18:52] activated and actively talks about this, that
[00:18:56] Ukrainian strikes are the main reason,
[00:18:59] there are two factors,
[00:19:02] the first factor is the domestic political situation,
[00:19:05] that is, he is trying again... to shift responsibility to
[00:19:09] the Democrats and to Ukraine for his actions in the Strait of Hormuz in
[00:19:12] Iran. And the second reason is the
[00:19:16] attempt to pressure Ukraine to
[00:19:20] achieve an energy truce. Ms.
[00:19:24] Oksana, you have already started talking about
[00:19:27] diesel exports, about the details, but let's
[00:19:30] add a little more information.
[00:19:33] So, who exports the most diesel according to
[00:19:37] the estimates for 2025? The global
[00:19:40] volume of diesel fuel exports amounted to about 8
[00:19:44] million barrels per day, almost half of the world's supplies
[00:19:48] are provided by five countries. In first place are
[00:19:51] the United States of America. The country exports a little more than
[00:19:54] a million barrels of diesel per day, or
[00:19:57] 15% of the world volume. The second
[00:20:00] position is held by Russia, about 800
[00:20:04] thousand barrels per day, or 9.5%
[00:20:08] of world exports. After the European
[00:20:11] Union imposed an embargo, Russian diesel supplies
[00:20:14] were reoriented from the European market to countries in Asia,
[00:20:18] Africa, and Latin America. The third country
[00:20:22] is Saudi Arabia, followed by India and
[00:20:25] South Korea. At the same time, the largest regional
[00:20:28] exporter is Europe,
[00:20:31] 35.3%
[00:20:33] of world supplies. A significant part of this volume falls on trade
[00:20:37] between the countries of the European
[00:20:41] Union themselves. So, Ms.
[00:20:43] Oksana, if we go into detail, then
[00:20:47] of course, we are talking about... the Middle
[00:20:50] East, and can we really
[00:20:53] talk about the recovery
[00:20:56] of trade, economic activity in
[00:20:59] the Middle East, or is it still very
[00:21:03] difficult to say that imports,
[00:21:07] exports have recovered to the level they were before
[00:21:11] February 2026?
[00:21:13] року.
[00:21:16] Yes, well, according to the latest data that you have already announced in the introduction
[00:21:20] of our broadcast, according to Capeler agency,
[00:21:23] currently the recovery, in particular,
[00:21:27] of crude oil flows is taking place at a level of approximately 10
[00:21:30] million barrels per day, and this constitutes approximately
[00:21:33] 74% of the pre-war level,
[00:21:37] but it should be noted that this means passage
[00:21:41] through the Strait of Hormuz,
[00:21:43] and again these Capeler
[00:21:46] data differ from actual... with
[00:21:50] data of actual passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz,
[00:21:53] because they provide such a high figure for oil
[00:21:57] exports, while noting that per
[00:22:00] day, for example, on October 7,
[00:22:03] 10 tankers and commercial
[00:22:07] vessels passed, and on October 6, seven
[00:22:11] tankers and commercial vessels passed. In general,
[00:22:14] before the war, the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz
[00:22:18] was about... approximately 120-125 ships per
[00:22:22] day, and we understand that some
[00:22:25] ships turn off their
[00:22:27] transponders for safety reasons,
[00:22:30] these ships are not recorded. The flow
[00:22:33] of oil has recovered, yes,
[00:22:37] but it has also recovered due to the functioning
[00:22:40] of the Saudi Arabian East-West pipeline,
[00:22:43] as well as due to the functioning
[00:22:46] of the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline in...
[00:22:50] OHA, and due to this,
[00:22:53] export volumes,
[00:22:56] particularly crude oil, are increasing. Why are petroleum
[00:23:00] products and diesel not recovering? Firstly, oil
[00:23:03] refineries, particularly in the same
[00:23:06] Saudi Arabia, which, according to
[00:23:09] your data that you just showed, was in
[00:23:12] third place, historically the third largest exporter of diesel
[00:23:16] in the world. Currently, in
[00:23:20] 2026, Saudi Arabia's
[00:23:22] diesel export figures, particularly due to problems in the Strait of Hormuz,
[00:23:26] have significantly worsened, and Saudi
[00:23:28] Arabia is now somewhere
[00:23:32] in eighth or ninth place,
[00:23:35] therefore, diesel, it
[00:23:38] is harder to export,
[00:23:41] because you first need to refine crude
[00:23:44] oil to get diesel. Not all oil refineries
[00:23:48] have recovered in the Persian
[00:23:51] Gulf countries, oil can be stored in strategic
[00:23:54] reserves, extracted from fields and immediately sent for
[00:23:58] export, therefore, oil recovers first, again,
[00:24:01] volumes have recovered due to exports
[00:24:05] through additional logistical bypass
[00:24:08] routes, with diesel and petroleum products
[00:24:12] it's a bit more complicated, here not only Russia is playing in the market, as the second
[00:24:15] exporter
[00:24:19] limiting its volumes
[00:24:22] of diesel on the world market, but also China's position is also
[00:24:26] playing a role, which traditionally was also one of the large
[00:24:30] exporters of diesel, but in recent weeks,
[00:24:34] it has also limited the export of petroleum products to
[00:24:37] the market. Thus, we have such a situation that
[00:24:40] the movement of ships is
[00:24:44] unstable, it is
[00:24:46] impossible to talk about a complete recovery.
[00:24:50] However, we are indeed observing in the last week of September, at
[00:24:53] the beginning of October, a recovery
[00:24:56] of approximately three-quarters of the pre-war level of crude oil
[00:25:00] exports, a partial,
[00:25:03] insignificant recovery of diesel and petroleum products, however, this
[00:25:07] does not indicate that de-escalation is occurring,
[00:25:11] but rather that these are temporary
[00:25:14] improvements, but stable movement of ships has
[00:25:18] not been restored, and further... will also be felt
[00:25:21] upheavals, particularly due to the situation
[00:25:24] in the Red Sea, the situation in the Bab-el-Mandeb
[00:25:28] Strait. Ms. Oksana, what about
[00:25:31] prices? We see that prices, in principle,
[00:25:35] are not falling either for oil or for
[00:25:38] ready-made fuel, yes, fuel, gasoline prices, in
[00:25:42] Ukraine, of course, in Europe, in the United States
[00:25:46] of America, they are either high or
[00:25:49] even... still growing a little. What
[00:25:52] influences this? You say that there is still some movement,
[00:25:56] but we don't see any
[00:25:59] decrease. What is your forecast? What
[00:26:02] will happen, let's say, at least until the end of this
[00:26:06] year? Can we expect some stabilization or
[00:26:10] a decrease in world prices
[00:26:12] markets?
[00:26:14] Well, the situation with crude oil prices was very
[00:26:18] indicative in September. The price held at approximately
[00:26:22] $98 per barrel for crude oil, but
[00:26:26] when there were Houthi attacks on the East-West
[00:26:29] pipeline, and it was temporarily
[00:26:33] stopped export through it, there were also
[00:26:36] Houthi attacks on the port of Yanbu, and
[00:26:39] shipments from it ceased. Then these
[00:26:42] Houthi attacks immediately caused the price of
[00:26:46] crude oil to rise in the market. This was in mid-September by
[00:26:50] 11%, roughly from 98
[00:26:53] to 110. Oil rose for a few
[00:26:57] days. Accordingly, the situation here in the countries
[00:27:00] of the Persian Gulf is the main
[00:27:04] factor influencing the price of crude
[00:27:07] oil, and accordingly, the price of crude oil then
[00:27:11] influences oil products, diesel.
[00:27:14] In addition, we understand that insurers, they
[00:27:18] also have their risk premium, yes,
[00:27:22] this fear premium, as soon as any unrest occurs in the
[00:27:25] Red Sea or in the Persian
[00:27:28] Gulf, immediately, without waiting for
[00:27:31] improvement, insurers add this
[00:27:34] premium, and accordingly, the price increases. That is, there is an actual
[00:27:38] increase in physical volumes, and there is an increase
[00:27:42] in markets, that is, a paper-based increase
[00:27:45] called a fear premium, and
[00:27:48] it can increase
[00:27:51] very quickly, this price increase, and it
[00:27:54] can roll back very quickly
[00:27:57] depending on the geopolitical situation. Regarding the forecast,
[00:28:00] for the last 8-9 months, the price held in
[00:28:04] the range of 98-100
[00:28:06] dollars per barrel. There were historical
[00:28:09] peaks at the beginning of March, approximately
[00:28:12] 120 dollars per barrel, but they lasted only a few
[00:28:16] days. They say that the most
[00:28:20] favorable price for both exporters and
[00:28:23] importing countries,
[00:28:27] which allows industry
[00:28:29] not to fall into recession and also
[00:28:32] allows exporters to have a good margin,
[00:28:36] is approximately $90 per barrel (90-98).
[00:28:40] Accordingly, the forecast is that
[00:28:44] by the end of this year, the price will remain
[00:28:47] in these ranges
[00:28:50] of 98-100 dollars per barrel. I don't
[00:28:53] think there will be a very large increase at the level of $120,
[00:28:57] as this is unprofitable for both
[00:29:00] industry and...
[00:29:04] and it is profitable for exporting countries, but the global industry will
[00:29:08] suffer much more, and exporting countries then try
[00:29:11] to regulate the price a bit. For example,
[00:29:15] we see the latest actions, that the G7
[00:29:18] countries, in order to prevent an increase
[00:29:22] in diesel prices, they
[00:29:24] agreed to release additional
[00:29:27] додаткових
[00:29:28] barrels of
[00:29:31] products and oil
[00:29:33] to the market. So they will
[00:29:37] try to keep the price at the current level,
[00:29:40] and a sharp increase is
[00:29:44] unprofitable primarily for the global industry. Who
[00:29:47] is primarily affected by oil and
[00:29:51] fuel, gasoline, diesel prices?
[00:29:54] Which countries suffer the most, and what
[00:29:57] to do
[00:29:58] in such a case?
[00:30:02] Countries suffer, primarily
[00:30:05] Asian countries suffer, European countries suffer, in principle.
[00:30:08] If we talk about the industry, it's industry and in particular
[00:30:12] the agricultural sector,
[00:30:15] because to harvest
[00:30:19] or sow, you need
[00:30:21] to fuel machinery. Accordingly,
[00:30:25] we understand that the global increase in oil
[00:30:28] prices is reflected equally,
[00:30:32] I apologize, it is reflected equally
[00:30:35] in European countries and in Asian countries.
[00:30:39] The reserves
[00:30:41] of countries
[00:30:44] are decreasing, strategic reserves
[00:30:47] are decreasing, the ability
[00:30:50] to react, and the ability for this maneuvering step
[00:30:53] of the G7 countries,
[00:30:56] is falling because reserves in countries are decreasing, particularly...