ESPRESO — broadcast
20261012 220000 UTC
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[00:04:57] The world has changed, a real war has intertwined. with a
[00:05:00] hybrid war, fakes change reality, this is ordinary senseless
[00:05:04] propaganda, like in Soviet times. Vitaliy Portnikov and Espresso host
[00:05:07] in the Saturday political club consider the main events of the week
[00:05:11] through the prism of critical thinking, only those who
[00:05:14] are ready to defend themselves will survive here. Do not let yourself be manipulated, follow
[00:05:18] current events to understand the future, together with the project
[00:05:22] Saturday Political Club, every Saturday on
[00:05:24] Espresso.
[00:05:29] Servicemen of the 50th Regiment of the National Guard of
[00:05:32] Ukraine are addressing you. We are currently in the Teratsky direction, where the enemy
[00:05:36] has intensified offensive actions and is putting pressure on the infantry. Therefore, we
[00:05:39] ask you to support the collection for...
[00:05:42] equipment for reconnaissance and fire adjustment from the sky, this will help
[00:05:46] save the lives of our brothers-in-arms. There are no small donations,
[00:05:49] we thank everyone who joins.
[00:06:17] This night, oil refineries in Russia did not burn, but to the
[00:06:20] north, a Russian reactive Shahed hit a
[00:06:23] gas production facility in Ukraine, there was also a
[00:06:27] Russian attack on an ordinary gas station with several
[00:06:30] drones.
[00:06:34] Ukraine did not hit oil refineries in Russia this night,
[00:06:38] said President Volodymyr Zelensky. In this way,
[00:06:41] the authorities and... the military command supported the energy truce promoted
[00:06:45] by US President Donald Trump. Zelensky
[00:06:49] is ready to sign guarantees on ending attacks on
[00:06:52] energy infrastructure and expects Russia to
[00:06:56] agree to the same step. Also, the Ukrainian president allows for presidential
[00:07:00] elections if Russia ceases fire for
[00:07:03] 60 days. The Kremlin has already responded that they are ready not
[00:07:07] to strike Ukraine for only one day on
[00:07:10] election day. What are Washington's efforts aimed
[00:07:14] at and how will they affect life in Kyiv and other cities?
[00:07:18] Will Ukrainians have heat and light, and will they need to go to
[00:07:21] polling stations in the near future? We will talk about this
[00:07:25] over the next 45 minutes with our
[00:07:28] experts, media professional from Washington Kateryna
[00:07:31] Lisunova, energy expert Andrian Prokip
[00:07:34] and Deputy Head of the Servant of the People faction in the Verkhovna Rada,
[00:07:38] Olena Shulyak, so be sure to wait, I
[00:07:41] greet you. This is the "What's Next" program, my name is Bohdan Luhunov, every day
[00:07:45] on weekdays on the TV channel we not only discuss events that
[00:07:49] are concerning, but also analyze what they can lead to and how
[00:07:53] they will affect our lives in the future. So,
[00:07:56] this night, oil refineries in Russia did not burn, said President
[00:08:00] of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. In this way,
[00:08:03] the authorities showed their readiness for an energy
[00:08:06] truce, the beginning of which was announced by President Donald
[00:08:10] Trump. Instead, Russia continued attacks on Ukrainian
[00:08:13] energy facilities. Over the past few days, Trump and
[00:08:17] Zelensky actively exchanged statements and accusations against
[00:08:20] each other. Our journalist Iryna Davusyr collected
[00:08:24] them into one material. Iryna, hello. The floor is
[00:08:27] yours. Bohdan, hello. So, on Friday,
[00:08:31] October 9, US President Donald Trump spoke by phone with
[00:08:34] Russian President Vladimir Putin. After that,
[00:08:38] Trump announced that Russia would immediately supply to the American and
[00:08:41] world market. over 3,000 tons of diesel,
[00:08:45] another 500,000 tons in November. Additional batches are
[00:08:48] foreseen in the future, Trump explained: it is necessary
[00:08:52] to increase the supply of fuel and lower prices, which have risen against the backdrop
[00:08:55] of the war in the Middle East. Thus, the United States temporarily
[00:08:59] eased sanctions on the sale of Russian diesel until April
[00:09:02] 2027. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
[00:09:06] responded that any easing of sanctions without de-escalation
[00:09:10] agreements with Russia, is... obvious
[00:09:12] weakness. The next day, Trump made
[00:09:16] a new statement. He said it was time for Ukraine to elect a new
[00:09:20] president, because Zelensky does not want to negotiate with
[00:09:22] Russia.
[00:09:26] He could have ended the war many times, but
[00:09:29] chose not to. We said, you can do whatever
[00:09:33] you want with Russia, but do not attack oil refineries,
[00:09:36] because that creates a global problem. And he
[00:09:40] wants to create problems for the whole world, he wants to create
[00:09:44] problems for our farmers and ranchers due to diesel
[00:09:47] fuel, because Russia supplies a significant
[00:09:51] part of it to the world market.
[00:09:54] A number of world leaders reacted to Trump's agreements with Putin.
[00:09:57] For example, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal
[00:10:01] called on Ukrainian servicemen to turn Russian oil refineries into
[00:10:04] ruins, and Radosław Sikorski, the Minister of Foreign Affairs
[00:10:07] of Poland, expressed doubt about Russia's ability to
[00:10:11] export fuel with a domestic
[00:10:14] deficit. Australia stated that it does not intend to
[00:10:17] buy Russian fuel, and seven senators of
[00:10:21] the United States of America from both parties stated that the US should not...
[00:10:25] give Putin a financial lifeline, they
[00:10:28] pointed out that the import of Russian diesel contradicts the law, and
[00:10:32] the Trump administration did not consult
[00:10:34] with Congress. On October 11, the President
[00:10:38] of the United States stated that an energy truce had begun
[00:10:41] between Ukraine and Russia. Zelensky reacted that this was
[00:10:45] news to him, later adding that
[00:10:48] Russia had already violated the energy truce with an attack on a power plant in
[00:10:52] Kharkiv. The American publication Axios wrote that
[00:10:56] by "energy truce" Trump meant only
[00:10:59] stopping attacks on oil refineries, but Russia has
[00:11:03] an extensive network of oil refineries, while Ukraine has only one
[00:11:07] plant, which the Russians have repeatedly attacked. Volodymyr
[00:11:11] Zelensky addressed the topic of an energy truce on Monday,
[00:11:14] October 12, during a speech before the participants of the
[00:11:17] Warsaw Security
[00:11:19] Forum.
[00:11:22] If Russia wants our
[00:11:25] long-range strikes on its oil refineries and oil
[00:11:28] exports to stop, then Russia must stop its strikes on our
[00:11:32] energy system and critical infrastructure, and
[00:11:36] stop killing our people, it's simply
[00:11:39] fair.
[00:11:41] The President says, if the US is really ready to intervene,
[00:11:45] an energy truce could become a real step towards ending
[00:11:48] the war. And in response to Trump's calls for a change
[00:11:52] of power in Ukraine, Zelensky said. Ukraine
[00:11:55] is ready to organize elections, but only if Russia agrees to a
[00:11:59] sixty-day truce. Moscow has already
[00:12:02] responded to this statement. Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that
[00:12:05] Putin is ready to give an order not to strike Ukraine
[00:12:09] only on election day. And Russian Foreign Minister
[00:12:12] Sergei Lavrov believes that Volodymyr
[00:12:15] Zelensky does not deserve a break on the battlefield.
[00:12:19] So, that's all the information from me, Bohdan, I hand over to you.
[00:12:23] Thank you Iryna, Iryna Davosyr. collected details on
[00:12:26] how the Ukrainian and American presidents communicated,
[00:12:29] I remind you that all weekend
[00:12:33] in the public sphere there were calls
[00:12:36] for an energy truce, President
[00:12:39] Zelensky spoke about the fact that Ukraine is ready for an
[00:12:43] energy truce, but as it turned out, Russia has already
[00:12:46] attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure,
[00:12:49] particularly in the Kharkiv region, next
[00:12:52] we will thoroughly analyze Trump's and
[00:12:55] Zelensky's statements, both regarding an energy truce
[00:12:59] and elections, but we will talk about this
[00:13:03] later. Currently, it is known
[00:13:07] that Russia allowed only one
[00:13:10] day to keep silent, and this day will be on election
[00:13:14] day. I will also remind you about the elections, we will talk about them today.
[00:13:17] We have a special guest, Olena Shulyak,
[00:13:21] Deputy Head of the Servant of the People faction in the Verkhovna
[00:13:24] Rada. People's Deputy, we will also have
[00:13:27] an energy expert,
[00:13:30] and in the meantime, we are waiting for our next guest, Kateryna
[00:13:34] Lisunova, a correspondent in the USA, also a media person from
[00:13:38] Razom for
[00:13:48] the energy truce announced by Donald Trump, attacked
[00:13:52] six Ukrainian energy facilities in 24 hours on October 12.
[00:13:55] This is the latest information, according to
[00:13:58] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on
[00:14:01] social media X. From these attacks across the country,
[00:14:05] 33 people were injured. But
[00:14:07] the Russians did not only strike energy infrastructure in recent
[00:14:11] days. On Saturday, October 10, Russian
[00:14:14] military dropped guided aerial bombs on
[00:14:17] Zaporizhzhia. One of the bombs destroyed a five-story building.
[00:14:20] 20 people died, including four children. This was
[00:14:24] reported by the co-chairman of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Defense
[00:14:27] Council Ivan Fedorov. 34 people were injured
[00:14:31] on Sunday, October 11, in the Kharkiv region
[00:14:34] as a result of a Russian strike on a store in the village of Pisochyn,
[00:14:38] three people died. At least 22 people
[00:14:41] were injured, according to the State Emergency Service.
[00:14:44] And also on October 11,
[00:14:47] the occupiers launched a series of strikes on Kharkiv, as a result of which
[00:14:51] 19 people were injured, according to the latest data.
[00:14:55] Among the injured are two children, this was reported by the
[00:14:58] State Emergency Service. In fact,
[00:15:02] this is how Russia reacts to calls for a
[00:15:05] truce. I don't
[00:15:09] know how this fits into the overall
[00:15:12] conversations of the Kremlin about Russia always being ready
[00:15:16] for, you know,
[00:15:20] such maximally peaceful steps, but so
[00:15:23] far we see that...
[00:15:27] Their words do not match their actions, and it is also
[00:15:30] known about the shelling of Kyiv, according to
[00:15:33] the latest data, nine injured in the
[00:15:37] capital, three injured have already been
[00:15:40] hospitalized by medics, this was reported by the mayor of Kyiv
[00:15:43] Vitaliy, Vitaliy Klitschko. Today,
[00:15:47] I remind you, Russia continues to attack the Ukrainian
[00:15:50] capital, in particular in the Darnytskyi
[00:15:52] district, a UAV hit a
[00:15:56] multi-story building. So, Kateryna Lisunova, a correspondent in
[00:15:59] the USA, a media person for
[00:16:20] Donald Trump's statements that Ukraine should elect a new
[00:16:23] president perceived in the US? I'm curious, you know,
[00:16:26] is this the personal position of President
[00:16:30] Trump, or is it, you know, a signal to change the
[00:16:33] American administration's approach to Ukraine? What
[00:16:37] do the media write about this?
[00:16:41] Well, let's start with the fact that this is for Donald Trump, I wouldn't say it's
[00:16:44] a change of approach to Ukraine, because many people are now saying
[00:16:48] that this resembles the meeting in the
[00:16:51] Oval Office, in the White House. To me,
[00:16:54] this actually reminds me more of the 2024 election campaign,
[00:16:58] when there were literally analogous statements from
[00:17:02] analogous people, both from Donald Trump and from Elon Musk, we can
[00:17:05] wait, maybe someone else will join. from these statements, and what we
[00:17:09] are currently observing is, unfortunately, the current
[00:17:12] administration and Donald Trump's policy
[00:17:16] is built on the fact that they are once again
[00:17:20] dragging Ukraine into these, so to speak, the quagmire
[00:17:23] of American politics, and
[00:17:27] as of now, Ukraine is being used as
[00:17:30] an excuse for Donald Trump's poor policy, the war
[00:17:34] in Iran, which actually caused. the rise
[00:17:38] in fuel prices, and therefore these statements should
[00:17:41] be viewed precisely from the perspective of political
[00:17:45] races, because we are now approaching the
[00:17:48] midterm elections to Congress, it seems that the
[00:17:52] Republican party will lose its majority, at least in the House of Representatives,
[00:17:55] and here the goal of these statements is
[00:17:58] such a scandalous gathering of
[00:18:01] ratings, an excuse for his mistakes, saying that it's not
[00:18:04] because Trump failed, but because Zelensky
[00:18:08] used the English word "uncooperative," that he cannot
[00:18:10] be reasoned with, and
[00:18:14] that, supposedly, because of Ukraine and
[00:18:17] Zelensky, certain political things of Donald
[00:18:20] Trump did not work out and perhaps he will even lose the House of
[00:18:23] Representatives. And if we talk about personal
[00:18:26] dislike, then this factor is also present. I have spoken with
[00:18:30] many representatives of the Trump administration and the
[00:18:33] sentiment of negative personal
[00:18:36] attitude towards the Ukrainian president is indeed present, unfortunately,
[00:18:39] and at the same time we know about the present
[00:18:43] sentiment of personal affection for Putin,
[00:18:46] and therefore there are several factors here, this is indeed personal
[00:18:49] animosity, this is the use of Ukraine
[00:18:52] and in this context the president in political
[00:18:55] races, and an attempt to shift responsibility for
[00:18:59] everything, for some mistakes of the
[00:19:01] administration to Ukraine, and all this is precisely
[00:19:04] part of another political
[00:19:09] Well, you know, Kateryna, you very, very aptly
[00:19:12] mentioned Congress, about the elections. I'm also
[00:19:16] interested, and I think the viewers are interested, in the reaction
[00:19:18] of Congress.
[00:19:21] Do you observe that in American politics, there is
[00:19:24] support in Congress, there is support for Trump's statements and
[00:19:28] actions, or is there still a part of Congressmen
[00:19:31] who are completely against what Trump
[00:19:35] is pushing, and am I right that, in essence, without the support of Congress,
[00:19:39] Donald Trump will not be able to
[00:19:40] act
[00:19:43] as widely as he would like, for example?
[00:19:47] Unfortunately, Donald Trump will be able to act as widely as he would like,
[00:19:51] without the support of Congress. Congress here does not play a
[00:19:54] key role. Are there
[00:19:57] lawmakers, particularly among the Republican Party,
[00:20:00] who support Ukraine? Yes, there are many of them,
[00:20:04] most of them. There are also far-rightists who, on the contrary, are more...
[00:20:07] sympathetic to Russia, this is quite a complex
[00:20:10] story, but there are actually many more
[00:20:13] Republicans who support Ukraine.
[00:20:16] And how will Republicans
[00:20:19] react to the latest
[00:20:22] events, to Donald Trump's latest decisions?
[00:20:25] Unfortunately, there is a very large part of the pragmatic view
[00:20:28] of Republicans, if this scandalous
[00:20:31] scandalous pre-election campaign leads Donald Trump to
[00:20:35] certain victories during the midterm elections. Then the Republican
[00:20:38] party will literally have nowhere to go but to
[00:20:42] agree to the continuation of such a policy, because he will
[00:20:45] appear precisely as a leader who influences the masses, who
[00:20:49] manages to lead the Republican party to
[00:20:52] those goals and achievements, to those
[00:20:55] results that the Republican
[00:20:59] party expects, and as long as
[00:21:03] he succeeds, as long as he helps to re-elect
[00:21:06] буде
[00:21:08] Republican legislators, as long as his support from the
[00:21:12] American public affects the party, the party will
[00:21:15] support him. So I would not say that
[00:21:19] there is great independence of the
[00:21:22] party itself, if we talk about the pragmatic side. If we
[00:21:25] talk about the moral side, historically
[00:21:28] Republicans are very categorical
[00:21:32] towards Russia, the former Soviet Union, and so on.
[00:21:36] And morally, many of them find this very unpleasant, and here there is
[00:21:39] a question of whether this moral side of
[00:21:42] rejecting such actions of Donald Trump
[00:21:46] will outweigh the pragmatic one. And it seems to me
[00:21:50] that a big indicator will be precisely these midterm elections, because
[00:21:54] if the Republican party loses by a large
[00:21:57] margin, then for this party it will be a sign that
[00:22:00] the current president, the current administration is not coping,
[00:22:03] and the steps that Trump
[00:22:07] is taking do not benefit the party, and only in such
[00:22:10] a situation, only under such conditions, the Republican
[00:22:14] party will resist
[00:22:17] him. As of now, we see. support for Ukraine among those
[00:22:21] legislators who consistently, historically always supported
[00:22:25] Ukraine, and I will tell you that many of them are actually now
[00:22:27] even resigning, they are leaving
[00:22:31] their posts, because, because
[00:22:34] they do not agree with the policy of the current president, and many
[00:22:37] very respected, very principled
[00:22:40] Republicans actually will not run again
[00:22:43] during these midterm elections.
[00:22:47] Thank you, Kateryna, for collecting this. for
[00:22:50] the situation that has developed in relations between Ukraine and
[00:22:53] the USA, Kateryna Lisunova, a correspondent in the USA,
[00:22:57] a media person for Ukraine, was on air, well, and before introducing
[00:23:00] our next guest,
[00:23:02] I will announce that in approximately
[00:23:06] 15 minutes, you will also be able to learn more about
[00:23:10] the chances of holding presidential elections in the near
[00:23:13] future, because People's Deputy
[00:23:16] Olena Shulyak will join the broadcast, meanwhile...
[00:23:21] Now with us is Andrian Prokip, Doctor of Economic Sciences,
[00:23:25] head of energy programs at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future,
[00:23:28] senior research fellow at the Kennan Institute in
[00:23:38] energy truce now, if in fact the parties
[00:23:42] have not published any significant conditions? We
[00:23:45] see that in the USA they declare only about
[00:23:48] oil refineries, but in Ukraine they don't
[00:23:51] talk at all about what this energy
[00:23:54] truce should look like, and here
[00:23:57] it is important to say that this is far from the first dialogue
[00:24:01] about Ukraine and Russia arranging this energy truce,
[00:24:04] at least in the last few years of the full-scale
[00:24:08] invasion. How do you see this process, how realistically or unrealistically
[00:24:10] do you evaluate it?
[00:24:14] Well, first, we need to distinguish
[00:24:16] these statements by President Trump. I remind you that literally
[00:24:20] less than a month and a half ago, he came out with this
[00:24:24] statement every time, saying that
[00:24:27] the parties are ready for an energy
[00:24:30] truce, and in Ukraine and in Russia
[00:24:33] they expressed surprise and said that no such agreements had been
[00:24:36] reached. But we need to understand that
[00:24:40] first of all, these statements by Donald Trump are
[00:24:43] aimed at his domestic audience,
[00:24:47] this is an element of his...
[00:24:50] diplomatic dialogue with Moscow, with
[00:24:53] Putin, and if we talk about working for the domestic audience,
[00:24:56] then this is primarily related to the
[00:24:59] midterm elections, which will take place in less than
[00:25:03] a month. Actually,
[00:25:06] in the conditions of these elections and the risk that
[00:25:09] Trump may lose them, in the conditions of his failure
[00:25:13] with the Iranian campaign, in the conditions that
[00:25:16] prices have risen significantly
[00:25:20] for oil products and diesel in the US,
[00:25:23] Trump needs to show at least
[00:25:26] some achievements, some victories, and he will say:
[00:25:29] look, I promised to end the war in one
[00:25:33] day, and here, look, there will be a truce, that's the first thing, and the second
[00:25:36] thing is a promise that, supposedly,
[00:25:40] very soon, prices for oil products
[00:25:44] in the US will go down. This very
[00:25:46] issue of oil product prices in the US is very sensitive for American voters.
[00:25:50] At one time, why
[00:25:53] Trump won was because, among other things, the popularity
[00:25:56] of Democrats was undermined by the fact that
[00:25:59] as a result of the energy crisis that unfolded... this
[00:26:02] was due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022,
[00:26:05] prices for fuel were
[00:26:08] rising. now there are records being broken there,
[00:26:12] of course, in Moscow
[00:26:15] they understand how much Trump
[00:26:18] needs, uh, at least
[00:26:21] some achievements, even if only formal ones,
[00:26:25] uh, they, therefore, can very formally
[00:26:28] agree to a truce, which doesn't exist, because if we talk...
[00:26:32] that, and it's beneficial for them that we don't hit
[00:26:35] their, their oil refineries,
[00:26:39] and, if we continue to blame Kyiv, blame
[00:26:43] Ukraine for it, saying, look, Americans, look,
[00:26:46] Ukrainians don't respect you at all, well,
[00:26:49] after these interim
[00:26:51] elections,
[00:26:53] and they can themselves violate
[00:26:57] all truces, if they adhere to them at all,
[00:27:00] right? That's why
[00:27:04] in Moscow they also perfectly understand how they can
[00:27:07] now play on Trump's
[00:27:10] interests, and they understand that in principle
[00:27:13] this will last for a very short time, less
[00:27:16] than a month, because they have a conviction, they have a belief
[00:27:20] that this winter they will soon
[00:27:23] push us. During the broadcast
[00:27:27] they write to us here, there will be no truce anymore, they won't let
[00:27:30] the viewers breathe. or
[00:27:32] Espresso. And what do you think, Mr. Andrian, what
[00:27:36] exactly should this energy truce entail? We
[00:27:40] understand that there is no point in agreeing only on
[00:27:43] refineries, because as we already mentioned on air today, in Ukraine it is
[00:27:47] one and it is constantly under Russian attacks, while in
[00:27:50] Russia these are key facilities that bring them billions
[00:27:54] of dollars. Do I understand correctly that such a truce should
[00:27:58] include absolutely the entire energy system, and
[00:28:02] gas, and substations and
[00:28:04] electricity generation? And will Russia agree to this, do you see
[00:28:08] real possibilities for Russia to agree to a
[00:28:11] ceasefire on our energy facilities?
[00:28:15] Well, I would generally,
[00:28:19] uh, if we talk about any truce, from
[00:28:22] the point of view of Ukraine's interests, I would talk not only about an energy one, but also about
[00:28:26] logistics issues of the Black Sea, because
[00:28:30] this creates for... serious
[00:28:33] problems for us, and in
[00:28:37] the matter of agreement, disagreement on some truce, whether
[00:28:40] energy, or energy-logistics,
[00:28:43] here Russia will proceed from
[00:28:46] losses and gains, right? Uh,
[00:28:50] therefore, in Russia, well, they
[00:28:53] believe that, well, they basically believe every year that soon, soon
[00:28:57] another week, soon another half a year,
[00:29:00] and they will be able to push us. The
[00:29:03] war against
[00:29:05] Iran plays against
[00:29:09] us, which significantly
[00:29:12] raised prices and helps Russia essentially
[00:29:14] maintain
[00:29:16] its oil and gas revenues through high oil prices, how many
[00:29:20] petroleum products, which they do not produce due to attacks on refineries,
[00:29:23] they partially compensate with oil
[00:29:27] exports
[00:29:30] at a high price and really. Russians are very actively interested
[00:29:34] in the continuation of this war in
[00:29:37] Iran.
[00:29:41] Let's model a negative scenario, or, as
[00:29:44] experts call it, a realistic one. Russia will
[00:29:47] not agree to an energy truce. Well, here
[00:29:50] we are primarily interested in the energy one, because the US President, among others, talks about it,
[00:29:54] so we wouldn't want to discuss a truce in general, because we
[00:29:57] have repeatedly heard that Russia is not ready to...
[00:30:00] stop firing either along the front line or in any other form. So,
[00:30:04] let's imagine, the energy truce did
[00:30:07] not come. Russia continues to strike at
[00:30:10] the energy system. How can you assess the readiness
[00:30:14] of the Ukrainian energy system for such strikes? And can
[00:30:17] you confidently say that the authorities
[00:30:21] have protected all key energy facilities in
[00:30:24] Ukraine, and we will easily get through the coming
[00:30:27] winter with strikes on the energy sector?
[00:30:31] Well, look, when we talk about the level
[00:30:34] of readiness of the energy sector
[00:30:37] for energy terror,
[00:30:40] here there
[00:30:43] is a very
[00:30:45] wide range of factors that
[00:30:49] determine this readiness and capacity,
[00:30:53] there are factors that we do not control, in fact,
[00:30:56] this is the temperature factor, the weather.