ETVPLUS — broadcast
20260926 230000 UTC
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Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking
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[00:04:47] Why did I choose this topic at all, because it is clear
[00:04:51] that our listener is predominantly a voter
[00:04:55] of the Centre Party, so the fluctuations in
[00:04:58] the rating of this party. they are quite remarkable,
[00:05:02] but by and large, that is,
[00:05:05] one can say that, well, yes, that is, I agree with the opinion
[00:05:08] of Andrey Shumakov that since the Centrists in Tallinn are in power.
[00:05:12] or in power, then it is clear
[00:05:16] that close attention is paid to them, but here something else is interesting,
[00:05:19] it is much more remarkable that the Social Democrats, according
[00:05:23] to this study, caught up in popularity with the Centrists, and
[00:05:26] it is remarkable that the rating of the Reform Party increased, again, who
[00:05:30] is in power, who is not in power, the reformists are in power, they
[00:05:33] have been beating these
[00:05:36] anti-records of their own popularity constantly
[00:05:39] for the last months, or even years, now they have a trend towards
[00:05:43] an increase, and in many ways, again, thanks to the fact that they
[00:05:46] are in power, they are visible, and things in the country as a whole, as
[00:05:50] it were, are not bad, especially in the economy, yes, we
[00:05:54] now have certain alarming moments here, related to
[00:05:57] the rise in fuel prices, it is unknown what winter will bring, but at least
[00:06:01] now things have improved for the reformists, and if
[00:06:05] their statement that in the next parliamentary elections it is quite realistic
[00:06:08] for them to get 20 parliamentary
[00:06:11] mandates, based on the latest alignment of sociologists,
[00:06:14] this no longer
[00:06:16] looks like the reformists simply bounced off the bottom, so
[00:06:20] to speak,
[00:06:22] that is, there was nowhere to fall further anyway, they, it seems to me, in their rating
[00:06:26] have already reached the size of their own core
[00:06:29] audience, and this rating simply could not
[00:06:33] decrease
[00:06:33] under current circumstances.
[00:06:40] since we have already started talking about some preferences among.
[00:07:12] in slang, and why do you think that the majority of voters would like it,
[00:07:16] because such research data came out this week, again, but
[00:07:20] we, you see, we still
[00:07:23] have a coalition formed by the party
[00:07:26] that won the elections, so people influence this very
[00:07:29] indirectly, and somehow simply
[00:07:33] sum up the ratings of these
[00:07:37] three parties, but it seems to me that we rarely have such
[00:07:40] a situation.
[00:07:42] we rarely have a coalition formed in this way,
[00:07:45] so I, probably, if we have
[00:07:49] some dispute now, I will bet that there will be no
[00:07:52] coalition in this form. Andrey, your opinion? Well, why
[00:07:56] not, as they say, experience is already available, but
[00:08:00] in the end, everything will be decided by
[00:08:03] parliamentary mathematics, that is, when it is already clear
[00:08:07] how many mandates each specific political
[00:08:11] force has, then ...
[00:10:13] Titov correctly noted that we do not yet
[00:10:16] know how we will get to spring, that
[00:10:19] is, what else can happen during this time, we have certain
[00:10:23] questions with fuel, yes, we will obviously start the heating
[00:10:26] season, and it will start, right, and what will
[00:10:30] happen to prices, it is also not very clear, and this
[00:10:33] will, of course, affect everything very much, but if we look only at the current
[00:10:37] situation, then yes, and it seems to me that this statement
[00:10:40] is such, I would even call it almost indisputable, yes
[00:10:43] 20 mandates, yes, if we look at what is happening outside the window, then
[00:10:47] we want to start the heating season now, in general, very soon
[00:10:51] the batteries will work,
[00:10:53] utility bills. Speaking of, they said yesterday that a warm
[00:10:57] wave will still come, yes, but utility bills will inevitably creep up,
[00:11:01] what is happening at our gas stations is a separate story about reducing
[00:11:04] excises, unlike many countries, including
[00:11:07] our closest neighbors, Latvians, our government
[00:11:10] does not want to think, so all this can, of course, play against
[00:11:14] the Reform Party, but again, there is still a lot of time ahead, all these latest
[00:11:18] events, even despite a major scandal in the defense
[00:11:21] sector, it seems to me that they in a certain sense ...
[00:11:25] play even into the hands of the reformists, because they replaced
[00:11:28] the Minister of Defense, who found himself
[00:11:31] at the center of this whole scandalous story, and the new Minister
[00:11:35] of Defense, well, we will probably soon have
[00:11:39] popularity and authority ratings of certain
[00:11:42] government members, it seems to me that the new Minister of Defense will get pretty good
[00:11:46] marks there, because well, you can hear from all
[00:11:49] sides literally that a real
[00:11:53] man has finally come and he ... I mean Martin Herrem, the former
[00:11:56] commander of the defense forces, he is sympathetic to many, well,
[00:12:00] plus they introduced a new face into the cabinet
[00:12:03] of ministers, this is Liina Vahter,
[00:12:06] yes, she may not be so well known
[00:12:10] to the general public, but these few months in office will clearly
[00:12:13] make her such a magnet for voters by
[00:12:16] the March elections, and Herrem too, by the way, despite the fact that he initially
[00:12:20] almost immediately made it a condition that he would not run
[00:12:23] and ...
[00:13:29] here
[00:13:30] now.
[00:13:34] One more line, one news: Vladimir Svet will become
[00:13:38] an adviser to the elected President Jüri Madis by
[00:13:41] internal policy issues. Well, good luck,
[00:13:44] probably, yes? Good luck, of course, I wouldn't say it's an unexpected
[00:13:48] appointment, given that Vladimir Svet once
[00:13:51] worked in the bureau of the Chancellor of Justice.
[00:14:56] which accompanies this budget topic
[00:15:00] for next year. The first point we will start
[00:15:03] right away, so to speak, without introductions, is
[00:15:06] that the Estonian government has agreed to limit the state budget deficit
[00:15:10] next year at 4% of
[00:15:13] GDP. Recall that in principle, according to forecasts, it was either
[00:15:17] 4.9%, or 4.4%. And
[00:15:20] now, after this consensus was reached,
[00:15:24] the prime minister.
[00:15:38] 250 million, well, indeed
[00:15:41] a small figure, I'm not talking about the sum now, a small figure, 250
[00:15:45] million, a small
[00:15:48] figure, if you look at our country's budget in
[00:15:51] general, I understand that detractors and ordinary citizens
[00:15:55] again will now compare 250
[00:15:58] million with the scandal in the same defense
[00:16:01] forces, that is, in the Ministry of Defense regarding the purchase
[00:16:04] of ammunition for 70 million, who says more?
[00:16:09] But still, this first point, that
[00:16:12] the deficit will be at the level of four, this
[00:16:16] can be considered what?
[00:16:19] A victory, a compromise,
[00:16:22] or some kind of hopelessness or what
[00:16:25] is it? And why is it hopelessness? It seems to me that this is quite
[00:16:29] a positive moment, and it just fits into that
[00:16:32] concept that I was talking about, this is such a calm defense from
[00:16:35] the government.
[00:17:37] We will talk about fuel and excises today or can we jump ahead a bit
[00:17:41] we will, we will, let's, we will, let's, we will okay, so when we talk about
[00:17:44] fuel, I will say why 250
[00:17:47] million is, on the one hand, a small, and on the other
[00:17:50] hand, not a small amount, okay, also about the budget
[00:17:54] like this, yes, very interesting, yes, don't
[00:17:56] switch channels
[00:17:59] I said that there are two points, we discussed the first, the second point is also
[00:18:03] there, but for it I will make a small
[00:18:06] introduction. The government plans to increase the wage fund for teachers,
[00:18:10] police officers, rescuers, and cultural workers by 3%. Well,
[00:18:14] how exactly these funds will be distributed within
[00:18:17] the respective spheres will be decided by the ministries and subordinate
[00:18:21] institutions, and Mihal also reported that the tax
[00:18:24] burden will decrease to 35.2% next
[00:18:27] year, for comparison, last year it was
[00:18:31] 36.2, in the current 35.5,
[00:18:34] I apologize, here ... here is my
[00:18:38] second introductory part, what do you think, is it just me
[00:18:41] or do you also think that why are already
[00:18:45] specific things regarding, including
[00:18:48] the increase in the wage fund in the respective categories,
[00:18:52] announced by Kristina Kallas, the leader of the E-200
[00:18:55] party, everything is clear, she is like the second coalition
[00:18:59] partner, I mean the E200 party, and
[00:19:02] why this topic
[00:19:05] of salary increase ...
[00:19:08] should have been announced by Kristina Kallas, is there some
[00:19:11] political technological thing
[00:19:14] behind it? I'm not ready to analyze political technologies here, but it seems
[00:19:18] to me that this is related to the teachers' strike
[00:19:21] that took place this week,
[00:19:24] and since teachers demanded salaries and since
[00:19:28] it was Kristina Kallas who said that we don't have
[00:19:31] this reserve, to raise teachers' salaries,
[00:19:35] then she had to explain that there is still some
[00:19:39] reserve, some money is still available, and somehow
[00:19:42] some demands can be resolved. But if we are talking
[00:19:46] about increasing, for example, also from the sphere of cultural
[00:19:49] workers, police officers, rescuers, well,
[00:19:53] police officers and rescuers are the sphere of the Ministry of Internal
[00:19:56] Affairs, the Ministry of Internal Affairs is headed by a party member with Kristina Kallas, so
[00:20:00] therefore here everything is absolutely logical,
[00:20:03] culture, yes, the Ministry of Culture is under the Reform Party.
[00:20:07] Heidi Purga could have put in a good word for it,
[00:20:11] well, I don't know, I'm more inclined, probably,
[00:20:14] to second Andrey Shumakov that
[00:20:16] there is no very
[00:20:20] serious ulterior motive here,
[00:20:23] rather just a coincidence, yes, since there was a specific information occasion in
[00:20:27] the form of a warning strike by teachers, they started with that as the main thing, and mentioned
[00:20:31] the rest for good measure, well, and now we read other news
[00:20:35] that, for example, teachers' unions they...
[00:20:50] Well, Jorgen Ligi, of course, said in his usual manner,
[00:20:54] that the tone annoys him, not in that tone, not in that tone
[00:20:58] is a salary increase required, but still
[00:21:01] this rare case when in many ways one can
[00:21:05] agree with Jorgen Ligi, and not even
[00:21:08] from the point of view of what he mentioned about the tone,
[00:21:12] but from the point of view of what he mentioned about other spheres that are categorically
[00:21:16] underfunded, and there was no salary increase.
[00:21:20] there will not be, for example, the social sphere, yes, the social sphere, Jürgens touched on this
[00:21:24] topic, that, like, why don't we say anything about the social network,
[00:21:27] sphere? In general, there are many spheres
[00:21:30] that are not so, perhaps, well-known, yes,
[00:21:33] teachers, this is important, no one
[00:21:36] says that these are people who do not deserve a good
[00:21:40] salary, the same applies to police officers and rescuers -
[00:21:43] this is our safety, in the end,
[00:21:46] but we should not belittle the merits
[00:21:50] of representatives of other professions, in the end, again, returning to
[00:21:54] the conversation about that very state budget deficit,
[00:21:57] we come to the conclusion that funds are limited, no
[00:22:01] matter how you look at it, in this regard, even 3%
[00:22:05] growth that was proposed, well, it's still better than
[00:22:08] nothing, yes, and the same, by the way, Heidi Purga,
[00:22:11] the Minister of Culture from the Reform Party, she also said that, excuse me, but
[00:22:15] 3% is also money, especially this
[00:22:19] week ... a graph came across, I think it was in
[00:22:22] the newspaper Eestipäevaleht, where it was said that
[00:22:26] our teachers, if you take this
[00:22:29] regional picture across
[00:22:32] different regions, then our teachers in all
[00:22:35] counties, except Harju and Tartu,
[00:22:38] receive above average salaries for the county, that is, in
[00:22:42] general, teachers are already quite well
[00:22:46] paid employees, if you take ... this kind of cross-section by
[00:22:50] counties, yes, only in Harju and Tartu, where the average
[00:22:53] salary is slightly higher, teachers receive a little less,
[00:22:57] well, it seems to me, and in Viru County it's the opposite, yes, in Viru County, teachers
[00:23:00] are generally, one might say, a privileged class, considering the 1.5
[00:23:04] coefficient that applies to their salaries, by the way, doctors too, I
[00:23:07] listened today, no,
[00:23:11] yes, a member of the board of the Narva hospital, that is, a member of the management,
[00:23:14] sorry, well, there are
[00:23:17] solid bonuses, additions. That is,
[00:23:20] indeed, those who are interested can
[00:23:23] go either as a teacher or as a medical
[00:23:26] worker, but at the same time, please note that this
[00:23:29] migration from conditional
[00:23:33] Võru or Paide to Narva, again, conditional
[00:23:36] Narva for teachers and doctors, still did not happen,
[00:23:40] still people mass migration did not happen, it
[00:23:43] is there, very isolated, it is very
[00:23:46] isolated, yes, that is, what's the problem, Andrey, huh?
[00:23:50] Well, I don't know what exactly the problem is, those teachers, before the region as
[00:23:53] such, it seems to me that it is still difficult for a person
[00:23:57] to change their well-established place, a person must have very strong
[00:24:01] motivation, and even a difference of 500 euros, for example, in salary, yes, that's a pretty
[00:24:05] serious difference, still, it
[00:24:07] still does not act as such a strong motivator, people come
[00:24:11] who, for example, want to be in a different language environment, several
[00:24:15] interlocutors on Delfi told us that they came
[00:24:19] to improve their Russian.
[00:24:30] that story didn't happen, well, in Finland too, by the way, the same Estonian doctors also
[00:24:33] became less likely to go there, and
[00:24:37] now Andrey, let's talk about excise in a few
[00:24:39] seconds, here
[00:24:43] now,
[00:24:49] as ... correctly noted, if you look at the cost
[00:24:53] of diesel fuel, for example, at our
[00:24:55] gas stations, then yes, this is a separate
[00:24:58] story, a separate one, what, Andrey, a week ago, just
[00:25:02] such a remark from personal experience, I
[00:25:05] usually always fill up the tank when my car informs me
[00:25:09] that the gas is running out, not gas, I
[00:25:12] have a diesel, I drive up to the gas station insert the nozzle and
[00:25:15] wait for the tank to fill up, a week ago, when ...
[00:25:20] I saw these prices at gas stations, I may have, for the first time in my life, not filled
[00:25:23] the tank completely, because a full tank would mean a three-digit number,
[00:25:27] psychologically I was not ready for this. That's how,
[00:25:30] Andrey, you justify the stereotypes of some of our listeners
[00:25:34] about how rich Russian-speaking journalists
[00:25:37] in Estonia are, a full tank in them, so I didn't fill
[00:25:41] the tank completely, you see, it's just the opposite, yes, all
[00:25:44] teachers in Virumaa,
[00:25:47] and if we talk further about excises, then... it's clear
[00:25:51] that everyone compares
[00:25:54] the policy on this issue with neighboring countries, in the same Latvia, where
[00:25:57] the government decided to reduce fuel excises, we generally read this
[00:26:01] week that...
[00:26:32] Why do we, well, not we, but why does our Ministry of Finance
[00:26:36] so categorically insist that this should not be done, but it seems
[00:26:40] to me that we had a story that we wanted to raise these excises
[00:26:44] even more, we once abandoned this increase, that is, we already
[00:26:47] had, apparently, some amount allocated for this, we have already abandoned it, but
[00:26:51] where else to retreat?
[00:26:54] There is one mathematical trick, I am not
[00:26:58] claiming that it will turn out the same.
[00:27:00] Still, you need to sit down and calculate carefully, but the trick
[00:27:04] is that by lowering excises, the overall
[00:27:07] revenues of the state from the sale
[00:27:10] of fuel will not decrease, because due to the increased price,
[00:27:14] the state receives more in the form
[00:27:18] of turnover tax,
[00:27:21] that's how it is, yes, well, you get the idea, right,
[00:27:25] so therefore, reducing the excise tax does not mean anything for the state budget,
[00:27:29] and now to the question of those 250 million. In the teaser
[00:27:32] about which there was talk 10 minutes ago,
[00:27:35] look, in Latvia they lowered the excise tax
[00:27:38] and this can reduce
[00:27:41] the price per liter of motor fuel for the end
[00:27:44] consumer by approximately 20 cents, I thought it was
[00:27:48] 9 cents, 9, I got
[00:27:51] 20, okay, if 9, then it's actually funny, let's
[00:27:55] take 20, let's go all out, 20 cents per
[00:27:58] liter, the average tank of an average
[00:28:02] car is 45 liters, so 20 times
[00:28:05] 45 is 9 euros per tank
[00:28:08] a person saves, well, how many times a month does a person fill up, well, on
[00:28:12] average, again, with our driving, twice a month, yes, twice
[00:28:16] a month, 9 times 2 equals 18, 18
[00:28:19] euros is less
[00:28:22] than 10% of the average salary, well, what less than 10, less
[00:28:25] than 1%, less than one, less than 1% of the average national
[00:28:29] salary, this is less than what people pay for internet per month.
[00:28:33] Can we talk about this as a serious saving and break
[00:28:37] spears over it? Probably not. Now to the question of 250
[00:28:40] million. 250 million is roughly 1% of the
[00:28:44] state budget. Now, if you compare these two
[00:28:48] figures, 18 euros for an ordinary person or 250
[00:28:51] million euros for the state budget, then answer the
[00:28:55] question yourself: is it a lot or a little? That is, it turns out that Jorgen
[00:28:58] Ligi, the Minister of Finance of the Republic of Estonia at the present time,
[00:29:02] he is much smarter than the Minister of Finance of 93, 94
[00:29:06] countries in the world, well, here
[00:29:09] one cannot assert so categorically, because we
[00:29:13] know little about these 93 countries, if we do not take neighboring Latvia, about
[00:29:16] which we know more, as it were, yes, about these 93
[00:29:20] countries we know little at all, what exactly are the tax measures, there, there may be
[00:29:24] anything not only for excise, here
[00:29:26] and that is, well, France is groaning, Germany
[00:29:30] is groaning, there are simply large... okay,
[00:30:33] good
[00:30:39] forecast, good forecast, this is not a forecast, this is just a good
[00:30:42] apprehension, yes, good apprehension, and here we need to
[00:30:46] calculate - what share, in
[00:30:49] what product, in what final price
[00:30:53] this fuel constitutes and how it will affect, in general, this is quite
[00:30:57] a serious mathematical calculation,