FRANCE24 — broadcast
20261012 223000 UTC
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[00:00:00] I haven't seen any energy truce from the Russian side in the last 48 hours. And so he
[00:00:04] always said things very clearly, and President Trump himself presented it as such, saying: "I obtained a truce on both sides,
[00:00:07] the facts are there that say the Russians
[00:00:11] continued to bomb energy infrastructure in the last
[00:00:14] hours." So obviously,
[00:00:18] the French president said: this is what Finland
[00:00:22] promised ammunition today to the Ukrainians in the coming days to arm
[00:00:26] the F16s, your analysis. On the reaction of the Europeans,
[00:00:30] we will also come back to that of Donald Tusk, who also commented,
[00:00:34] who reacted, we must see that the Europeans
[00:00:37] are not simply looking to exist, that is to say that the strategic depth
[00:00:40] of Ukraine is Europe, and the Europeans
[00:00:44] for the past 2 years have substituted for the Americans
[00:00:47] in terms of supply, in terms of financial
[00:00:51] and also military support, and we must also remember
[00:00:54] that the first supplier and producer of weapons
[00:00:57] for Ukraine
[00:01:00] are the Ukrainians themselves, that is to say that there has been
[00:01:04] a form of transfer, but on the differentiating
[00:01:06] capabilities and what is truly needed
[00:01:10] to protect the Ukrainian sky, well, it must be noted,
[00:01:14] only the Americans have the means that are cruelly needed,
[00:01:18] namely these Patriot missiles,
[00:01:21] but also others, which they practically no longer have due to the
[00:01:25] war in fact. But
[00:01:28] to put it quite bluntly, perhaps much more than he wanted
[00:01:31] in the Middle East, and in the end,
[00:01:35] is that it is first and foremost when you are in an economy that is not a war economy,
[00:01:38] and this is also the difference with Russia,
[00:01:41] of willingness to draw these famous red lines. well, you have to see that building, designing,
[00:01:45] approaching, and has Zelensky manufacturing, and then sending
[00:01:48] these missiles here or there where they are needed
[00:01:51] is not off-the-rack, it's handmade,
[00:01:55] it's human sewn, it's artistic, a missile
[00:01:59] takes about between 24 and 36 months to be designed,
[00:02:03] that is to say that what has been sent, what has been destroyed,
[00:02:06] what has been used, will not allow stocks
[00:02:10] to be replenished before probably 2,
[00:02:13] 3, 4
[00:02:16] we must reread or 5 years, and since the priority for the Americans
[00:02:19] is themselves, then Israel, then potentially
[00:02:22] Taiwan and Ukraine, well, the Ukrainians must find solutions,
[00:02:26] and for now there is no palliative. So you mentioned
[00:02:30] the Norwegians, what do the Norwegians do?
[00:02:33] Well, they give ammunition to Finland, I saw, who promises ammunition,
[00:02:37] but then we're going to use planes
[00:02:40] to shoot down drones or missiles, again, it's extremely dangerous.
[00:02:44] I would remind you that 15 days ago some Ukrainian aces
[00:02:48] lost pilots again because a drone exploded next to them,
[00:02:52] must show Russia so these are extremely tough combat missions,
[00:02:55] and the effort, even if it is vigorous
[00:02:59] and even if it is formidable, it gets exhausted because
[00:03:02] in the end, it's a question of men, and here you have men and women
[00:03:06] who have been engaged on all fronts for 5 years.
[00:03:09] Virginie, on the ground, do the Ukrainians think that the Europeans
[00:03:13] can ultimately compensate for this lack of US support? This is what they hope,
[00:03:17] and I remember very well, 2 years ago, at the time of Donald Trump's election,
[00:03:20] I was in Ukraine and I was very surprised,
[00:03:24] I imagined before arriving that the Ukrainians would be for continuity
[00:03:29] And for the rest, and obviously support, rather a candidacy like Kamala Harris's,
[00:03:32] in the direct line of Joe Biden, and when I arrived, they told me no,
[00:03:36] not at all, we are for Donald Trump despite his statements,
[00:03:40] because they wanted him to shake things up, they told me, we are not for the status quo,
[00:03:43] we want things to change, and with Donald Trump, whatever
[00:03:48] to see the various member states panic. the person, it will change, in particular to the language of
[00:03:51] converging on the fact and we will move forward because he had promised, remember, to end the war in 24 hours. They are very disappointed,
[00:03:55] and when I was there, imagine after all that has happened, all these back and forths, and these highs and lows,
[00:03:58] and when I was there, he had already cut, it lasted 3 days,
[00:04:02] and I think the Ukrainians at that moment really held their breath,
[00:04:05] he had cut American intelligence, which he threatens to do again,
[00:04:09] and without that, the Ukrainians who are currently carrying out strikes in Russia
[00:04:13] will have a very hard time
[00:04:15] that the Allies have, carrying out these strikes because they obviously use American intelligence,
[00:04:18] so you can imagine that on that,
[00:04:21] interests me, especially with this artist from the Ukrainians were terribly disappointed and betrayed,
[00:04:25] that he wants to bear witness to we don't even know how many times, despite French and British intelligence.
[00:04:28] Guillaume Lasconjarias, who is supposed to compensate for this absence
[00:04:32] of American intelligence if Trump decides
[00:04:34] to disconnect,
[00:04:37] assassination attempts it's something that is always very difficult because the question of intelligence
[00:04:39] is what do we agree to share or not?
[00:04:43] In reality, the allies globally, other than the United States,
[00:04:48] that it has already begun. can try to make available, but the means they have are also much more limited
[00:04:51] than those of the Americans. The Starling galaxy
[00:04:55] does not compensate, not quite, not quite,
[00:04:59] because in fact, it's more than an intelligence network,
[00:05:02] it's first a galaxy, a constellation
[00:05:04] that allows communications, identifications, to fly drones,
[00:05:09] war on us, to identify missiles, etcetera, etcetera, and no other country
[00:05:12] has as much, well, maybe the Chinese,
[00:05:16] but the Chinese probably won't share their intelligence
[00:05:20] or their galaxy or their constellation. We don't ask them to,
[00:05:23] anyway, no, because I think that in any case,
[00:05:26] if there was, maybe, I speak under the control
[00:05:29] of Siby Berman, but if there was a country that benefited from this support,
[00:05:33] it would probably be Russia more than Ukraine.
[00:05:36] Yes, it's an ally of the Russians, well, an ally, no,
[00:05:40] because China doesn't consider itself to have allies,
[00:05:44] but in any case, it's clear that
[00:05:48] it rather supports Russia. Having said that, by exporting components
[00:05:52] used or exported to Ukraine too, drones come from China for Ukrainians
[00:05:55] and for Russians as well. Well, besides,
[00:05:59] it supplies components. So what is also concerning
[00:06:03] for the Ukrainians is that the Russians are developing their own
[00:06:06] Starlink system, Rasviet, and so
[00:06:09] they will indeed have information
[00:06:13] that they lost when the Ukrainians had asked
[00:06:17] Elon Musk to stop providing Starlink for Russia,
[00:06:20] and when they were disconnected at that moment,
[00:06:23] it had direct consequences on the front, it considerably disorganized
[00:06:27] the Russian forces along the front line because they obviously used it a lot for their drones.
[00:06:30] Would that still be the case today because that was at the very beginning of the war?
[00:06:34] Would the impact be as great in terms of disorganization?
[00:06:38] In war, and especially on the front line, the most essential thing
[00:06:41] is communication. Without communication,
[00:06:45] without what we call C2, command and control,
[00:06:48] you don't know where your troops are, you don't know where your enemy's troops are,
[00:06:51] you don't know how you're going to organize yourself, in short, you can't do anything.
[00:06:55] So in fact, if you don't have communication, you are in what we call a degraded mode,
[00:06:58] and in reality, you can neither attack,
[00:07:02] you can barely defend yourself, and above all, you are totally
[00:07:05] deaf, dumb, and blind. That's a lot of difficulty
[00:07:09] to fight in an environment that is extremely lethal.
[00:07:13] This shows independence from the United States,
[00:07:17] a little bit everywhere. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk,
[00:07:20] who called on all of the West to be firmer with Russia,
[00:07:23] let's listen to Donald Tusk. Ukraine will give in
[00:07:27] neither to force nor to intimidation.
[00:07:30] Poland will give in neither to force
[00:07:32] nor to intimidation. Europe, NATO,
[00:07:36] and the entire free world will not give in.
[00:07:40] This is the message that must be sent today
[00:07:44] from all capitals, from Warsaw to Washington.
[00:07:48] From Warsaw to Washington, it's interesting to see the language
[00:07:51] used by Donald Tusk, so he maintains this Atlanticism
[00:07:55] that the Poles love. They are still on the front line
[00:07:58] with Russia. Of course, the Poles are very Atlantist,
[00:08:01] and in any case, they don't want to directly attack
[00:08:05] Donald Trump. He also expresses
[00:08:08] a... but he doesn't say,
[00:08:11] we're done with the Americans, and we Europeans
[00:08:14] are still calling on the Americans, so because he has no other choice. Absolutely.
[00:08:18] The head of German internal intelligence has at least judged
[00:08:21] that Russia's aggressiveness towards Europe and Germany
[00:08:25] is lasting and independent of the duration of the war in Ukraine,
[00:08:29] with Moscow wanting to redraw geopolitics in Europe.
[00:08:33] So we are really in a dimension that goes beyond Ukraine,
[00:08:36] Guillaume Conjaria, this is truly a statement
[00:08:40] from today from the head of German internal intelligence, that is, Ukraine or not Ukraine,
[00:08:44] Russia is waging this hybrid war against Europe,
[00:08:47] which includes Ukraine but goes beyond it, quite right.
[00:08:51] In fact, it must be understood that most European countries
[00:08:54] have in recent months published what are called white papers,
[00:08:58] in fact, analyses of the security environment which are all finally
[00:09:03] that Ukraine is only a symptom of a much wider war
[00:09:07] and that even if there is an open war
[00:09:10] in Ukraine, it is simmering elsewhere
[00:09:13] and we have seen to what extent the Europeans
[00:09:16] in recent months have not stopped being tested. This has been done
[00:09:20] with drone flights, with Russian aircraft overflights,
[00:09:24] with the way they deliberately or not,
[00:09:27] but sometimes more deliberately than others,
[00:09:30] cut submarine cables, in short, with these stories
[00:09:34] of espionage, with an increasing escalation
[00:09:38] that goes as far as, for example, the case of Leipzig
[00:09:41] where you could have had an attack
[00:09:44] on a civilian airport and then with perhaps even
[00:09:49] on industry executives, this was the case of the head of KNDS
[00:09:52] I think or, pardon me, of Rheinmetall. So in fact, this hybrid war
[00:09:56] is a war below the threshold, but below the threshold means
[00:10:00] But since we are not able to attribute it,
[00:10:04] to officially name the culprit, we don't dare,
[00:10:08] except that on the other side, they know they are at war with us.
[00:10:11] Read the book, to promote Séline Marranger,
[00:10:15] "The War of Europe Has Already Begun." In fact, Russia has declared
[00:10:21] we refuse to be in the camp of those who believe
[00:10:25] that they must face such an aggressive attacker,
[00:10:28] but in fact, not defending oneself
[00:10:32] is also a weakness and that leads your aggressor
[00:10:36] to be always more aggressive, to always want
[00:10:39] to test you more and more. The more we retreat,
[00:10:43] the more we are considered weak, and the Ukrainians
[00:10:47] obviously evoke this hybrid war, in fact they say
[00:10:51] that they are in fact a kind of rampart
[00:10:55] against Russia striking the Baltic countries,
[00:10:58] so other European Union countries. So they are first
[00:11:02] the physical rampart of the war
[00:11:05] that could reach our doors, but obviously on informational warfare,
[00:11:09] they know how Russia works, and those who are very up to date
[00:11:12] on the subject are the Baltic countries.
[00:11:15] Uh, they experienced in Estonia
[00:11:19] the first very important hybrid attack,
[00:11:23] it was in 2007, an hybrid attack
[00:11:27] carried out by Russia on all the major institutions
[00:11:31] of the country, on the parliament, on the banks,
[00:11:34] on ministries. So the Baltic countries
[00:11:38] know very well what we are talking about and often tell us Europeans further west,
[00:11:42] we could say, who do not have this same culture
[00:11:46] and who have not had to deal with these attacks before,
[00:11:49] in any case, they are intensifying, that we have perhaps
[00:11:52] not sufficiently taken this threat seriously enough,
[00:11:56] but it is a threat when we talk about hybrid war,
[00:12:00] obviously it is difficult to know where it stands,
[00:12:04] to have weapons against it, it is extremely complicated.
[00:12:07] So precisely, the Baltic countries belong
[00:12:11] to NATO, does NATO adapt
[00:12:15] its defense plans to this hybrid war?
[00:12:19] Today, in any case, Alexus Grenkewich presented
[00:12:22] his theory of victory, that is, a better way
[00:12:26] to defeat Russia. He is in fact
[00:12:29] the head of NATO, and it was in Warsaw,
[00:12:33] Poland, precisely,
[00:12:35] because a security conference
[00:12:38] is currently being held in Warsaw, let's listen to him.
[00:12:42] We have no project,
[00:12:43] no intentions,
[00:12:47] no ambition other than the protection of our people.
[00:12:50] No one should confuse our defensive posture with weakness.
[00:12:54] However, if anyone were so imprudent as to attack us,
[00:12:57] we would fight and prevent them from achieving their goals.
[00:13:02] I want to make one essential point clear: I do not believe that a conflict is imminent or inevitable.
[00:13:06] To reassure, the Supreme Commander of NATO Forces in Europe,
[00:13:10] Sylvie Bermann, but in fact what he says
[00:13:14] is that NATO member countries
[00:13:17] where the red lines are in case of a hybrid attack,
[00:13:20] but it's not easy to define a red line,
[00:13:25] we remember that in diplomacy it's not simple.
[00:13:29] Uh no, because if in fact
[00:13:32] we don't respect our own red lines and they are crossed,
[00:13:35] then that's an admission of weakness. And what happened
[00:13:39] in Syria and in other cases also,
[00:13:42] uh the problem is that NATO can certainly help member states,
[00:13:45] we can do a minimum of things, but it's rather the member states
[00:13:49] who are responsible for the... against these hybrid attacks.
[00:13:54] he says, well, Russia is not ready to attack, which is interesting, is that the Baltic countries also say it,
[00:13:58] because there are very alarmist speeches. Remember that the German Defense Minister
[00:14:02] said last summer that it was in the summer of 2025
[00:14:05] that it might be the last summer in peace. And so the Baltic states say stop,
[00:14:08] because in fact, it gives Putin a reason
[00:14:13] So the answer is extremely difficult because of that, you have to find the right threshold.
[00:14:17] Has he reassured you, Guillaume Lasconjarias,
[00:14:20] the famous Commander-in-Chief of NATO, Alexus Grenkewich,
[00:14:23] when he has this type of discourse? For me, I would first specify,
[00:14:26] he is not the Commander-in-Chief of NATO, he is the boss,
[00:14:30] ultimately, he is the head of, not of the Military Committee,
[00:14:33] he is the head of Shape, in short, of the Allied Forces Command,
[00:14:36] that is to say, he is the most important military commander
[00:14:40] but what is interesting is that he has a dual role,
[00:14:43] he is also the head of the American forces in Europe,
[00:14:46] and so this dual role puts him in a particularly complicated
[00:14:49] situation right now, because he must
[00:14:53] both give a form of goodwill pledge
[00:14:57] on behalf of the other 31 allies, the United States plus the 31 others,
[00:15:00] and at the same time respect the instructions given
[00:15:03] to him by his chain of command, that is, ultimately,
[00:15:07] Trump, and when we listen to him, he is ultimately,
[00:15:10] I found him on a rather narrow line,
[00:15:13] but on which he only reiterates what has been said for several years,
[00:15:16] namely that NATO is first and foremost
[00:15:19] a defensive alliance, and that is the first thing,
[00:15:23] and that we must indeed
[00:15:25] set red lines, but what do these red lines mean?
[00:15:29] He doesn't really specify. Is it necessary to be able to shoot down drones
[00:15:32] over such and such a territory without giving more details?
[00:15:35] Well, we've already done it, so it's not new either,
[00:15:39] and against hybrid attacks, again, it's extremely complicated.
[00:15:43] NATO has difficulty against hybrid attacks
[00:15:46] because it's primarily the prerogative of nations
[00:15:49] to be resilient and prepared. So we systematically return
[00:15:53] to the difference between a characterized aggression
[00:15:57] to which we can respond by Article 5,
[00:16:00] a bit like the Musketeers' article, one for all and all for one,
[00:16:04] and Article 4, which is the consultation article,
[00:16:08] that is... what happens when you have drones
[00:16:11] intervening in your airspace or a hybrid attack,
[00:16:15] and then you're going to call your comrades around the table,
[00:16:18] you're going to say, what are we going to do?
[00:16:22] And in fact, we all ask ourselves the question,
[00:16:25] "Does it hold up?" We're not sure
[00:16:29] Article 4, Article 5, given the power dynamic with the United States of Trump,
[00:16:33] will hold up. Well, in fact, the real question
[00:16:36] is, could we, as Europeans, also wake up a bit?
[00:16:40] There is something in the European Constitutional Treaty called Article 42.7,
[00:16:44] which is actually a slightly boosted Article 5,
[00:16:48] but will the Europeans have the courage to use it? Because in the end,
[00:16:52] that's it, within NATO, Guillaume Lasconjarias,
[00:16:56] or within the European Union, but we can have a reply,
[00:16:59] that is, 23 of the 32 countries of the Atlantic Alliance
[00:17:03] are also members of the European Union, so we must also be able to say
[00:17:06] that the Europeans are not totally helpless.
[00:17:10] The second thing
[00:17:13] a question of will, of political will,
[00:17:18] The problem is that we are always caught
[00:17:21] between two tides, if we were to use nautical vocabulary,
[00:17:25] first a kind of eschatological anguish at the idea
[00:17:28] of not offending Russia, so in fact we are not able
[00:17:32] to tell them the full truth, and then on the other hand,
[00:17:35] the idea, always present among some,
[00:17:38] who say, but finally one day we will wake up,
[00:17:41] Putin will pass, Trump will pass,
[00:17:45] and things will return to how they were before.
[00:17:49] The problem is that this change of atmosphere...
[00:17:54] the strategic documents, let's go back to the text,
[00:17:58] it's for a long time, and in fact,
[00:18:01] yesterday's time will not come back, yesterday's time will not come back,
[00:18:05] you agree, Madam Ambassador, yesterday's time will not come back,
[00:18:09] so it's more unstable, it's more,
[00:18:12] there are more alliances, well, everything is more complex,
[00:18:16] it's a bit like the law of the strongest, that of empires,
[00:18:20] international law is completely weakened,
[00:18:22] if not non-existent, the Security Council
[00:18:26] which embodied the law, international,
[00:18:29] no longer works. Yes, so
[00:18:32] we may not yet be in the world of tomorrow, but we are in a transitional world,
[00:18:36] and yesterday's world will not return,
[00:18:39] and many countries don't want it to return either, if we think of the countries of the global south,
[00:18:42] because they think that yesterday's world was a world dominated
[00:18:46] by American and European Westerners, and this is what Peskov
[00:18:50] said, in response to Zelensky's comments
[00:18:53] on this truce. Let's listen to the Kremlin spokesman.
[00:18:57] The Europeans evidently do not belong
[00:19:00] to the camp of peace, that is to say,
[00:19:04] the one that seeks a path towards a peaceful resolution.
[00:19:07] On the contrary, they embody
[00:19:09] the camp of war,
[00:19:13] by continuing to do everything to prevent the conflict
[00:19:16] from ending. We consider the efforts
[00:19:20] of American negotiators much more convincing, and we welcome their sustained
[00:19:24] work in this regard. "It is not a question
[00:19:28] for us of digging a ditch, but of seeking truly effective
[00:19:31] measures and responsible decisions,
[00:19:35] capable of paving the way for a peaceful resolution."
[00:19:39] Virginie Pironon, he indeed accuses the Europeans
[00:19:42] of being in favor of war, it's propaganda,
[00:19:46] with Peskov, as usual, the discourse is completely inverted,
[00:19:49] they manage to put themselves in a position where they appear
[00:19:52] on the Russian side, Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin,
[00:19:56] as the peacemakers, those who wait,
[00:19:59] and we know very well that this has been Vladimir Putin's strategy
[00:20:03] from the start, that he is in a war of attrition,
[00:20:06] that he waited for the Ukrainians to weaken
[00:20:10] to be able to achieve what he wanted to do,
[00:20:13] which is to take Ukraine, and today perhaps he will limit
[00:20:16] himself to taking the Donbas and Crimea. This is the truly traditional
[00:20:19] rhetoric of the Russians who are waiting and then
[00:20:23] play the game of saying that they are for peace,
[00:20:26] unlike the Ukrainians. No truce in sight,
[00:20:29] Guillaume Gerias, we have a few minutes left, it's going to be very hard this winter
[00:20:33] for the Ukrainians, can the midterm elections
[00:20:36] change American policy? If the Democrats win,
[00:20:40] not really either, that is to say that we may be able
[00:20:43] to have a Congress that will be more
[00:20:47] inclined to enforce the measures that had been highlighted
[00:20:51] in a rather bipartisan way, notably Lindsey Graham
[00:20:55] who is before and that's it
[00:20:58] and fervent supporter of the Ukrainians and yes,
[00:21:01] a tweet from Mike Pence this morning saying that Trump's decision
[00:21:05] was even against insulting the memory of what Lindsey Graham did,
[00:21:08] that says a lot about the malaise of some Republicans.
[00:21:12] Madam Bermann, uh
[00:21:16] yes, I think, no, but what's interesting,
[00:21:19] first of all, it depends if the Senate also falls to the Democrats,
[00:21:23] or the House of Representatives, that's practically a given,
[00:21:27] and many decisions actually depend on the Senate,
[00:21:30] and I think that Donald Trump will tend to disregard
[00:21:33] the decisions made by Congress on laws, by adopting
[00:21:37] them already with a Republican majority. Here, what are called
[00:21:40] executive orders, and so I think he will continue
[00:21:44] more or less to do what he wants, it won't change anything,
[00:21:48] Virginie, do we talk about these midterm elections
[00:21:52] on the ground? Everyone talks about them,
[00:21:56] no? Well, listen,
[00:21:59] we talked a lot about the American presidential election 2 years ago,
[00:22:03] now it's the midterms in Ukraine, obviously we talk about it,
[00:22:06] but you know, when you get closer to the field,
[00:22:10] the Ukrainian soldiers always answer the same thing:
[00:22:13] we need weapons, we are in the middle of a war,
[00:22:16] in reality they don't have time to worry about that,
[00:22:20] and I think today they tell themselves that the midterms, very
[00:22:24] concretely, that's not going to change much for Ukraine right now, which is in an
[00:22:28] extremely difficult situation, especially for
[00:22:31] civilian populations, as we were saying, with winter
[00:22:35] regained some popularity, as
[00:22:37] you said, he is challenged internally, we
[00:22:41] saw the demonstrations this summer, especially with his Minister of Defense who was
[00:22:45] dismissed from his functions and called for new elections, as Trump is doing
[00:22:48] today, but then in... the Ukrainians are holding firm, that is to say they
[00:22:52] believe that it is not up to the Americans to decide the course of their democracy
[00:22:55] nor even Russia, and because he was elected in 2019
[00:22:59] according to a democratic process, he even accepts to organize elections if he has
[00:23:02] a truce, if he has a ceasefire, and if he manages to organize elections where everyone
[00:23:06] can participate, that raises other questions, notably with the possible
[00:23:10] participation of soldiers in an
[00:30:14] this Tuesday, act 5 of the high school student movement as the
[00:30:18] budget review begins in the assembly? They assure that they will not
[00:30:21] give up until the All Saints' Day holidays, you will hear them. Emmanuel Macron, for his part,
[00:30:25] called for calm. We will
[00:30:28] also talk about the incomprehension in Aubagne, how and why a 14-year-old
[00:30:32] student was able to shoot his principal and a teacher with a hunting rifle, the detention
[00:30:36] of the main suspect and his parents continues, and
[00:30:40] then we will also be interested in the
[00:30:43] vulnerability of Saudi Arabia, target of unprecedented attacks in
[00:30:47] recent days, the Houthi rebels of
[00:30:51] Yemen have struck again,
[00:30:54] strong explosions have again shaken.