IRINN — broadcast 20260915 163000 UTC 426 transcript segments Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking Data courtesy of The GDELT Project (https://www.gdeltproject.org/), from the Internet Archive TV News Archive. Machine transcription. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a verbatim quotation record. [00:00:12] No one thought that this crisis would continue for [00:00:16] 20 days and it is not clear how much longer it will continue. [00:00:20] For this reason, the world oil market [00:00:23] is under severe pressure from supply. [00:00:27] We are seeing severe reactions, and we are reaching a stage [00:00:30] where there is a possibility of an overshoot in oil prices [00:00:34] with the slightest tension. Mr. Robati, [00:00:38] that's why some people say, "Now the war has just begun." They say, [00:00:41] "Now the war has just begun for them." [00:00:44] We were involved in an economic war before, [00:00:48] and we were sanctioned before. We were sanctioned. [00:00:51] They were able to stage a coup d'état with the same atmosphere in the country. [00:00:55] It was economic, right? Exactly. [00:00:58] The story is that they are gradually [00:01:01] feeling the pressures. And [00:01:04] why exactly is the playing field turning around and the war moving to their side? [00:01:18] this story so that we reach a conclusion." If we [00:01:21] want to retreat at this point, [00:01:24] what will happen? How will the situation be? I mean, this whole market can [00:01:28] turn back again. I mean, all of these [00:02:00] The point is that, yes, if the same agreement with Oman [00:02:03] is to be made again and oil exports are opened, these [00:02:07] will quickly refill the reserves, and oil prices will again [00:02:11] rise for a long time. The signals that Trump is giving are, "Come on, this is a different situation now." [00:02:14] Yes, this is it. The bond yield is going up, the US economy is under [00:02:18] pressure, and [00:02:21] oil prices are on the verge [00:02:49] has been controlled at 110 until now, it will continue to be controlled. [00:02:52] Suddenly, it might make [00:02:56] those strange movements, and perhaps if [00:03:00] there hadn't been the Islamabad memorandum or other events, that overshoot [00:03:03] in oil would have happened much sooner. And that [00:03:07] small window of opportunity that was created for [00:03:11] reserves to be refilled and the market to calm down a bit, well, some say [00:03:14] it won't happen that way. They say, "You don't know, America will eventually [00:03:18] pull something out of its magic box with the extensive economic tools [00:03:22] it has. [00:03:38] know what the reason for people's livelihood is, why the situation [00:03:42] is like this, what the solution is. What is it in America? What is it in Japan? [00:03:45] And with a very precise [00:03:49] estimation, it's clear what's happening. And indeed, [00:03:52] America's economic tools now have a debt of 234 trillion [00:03:56] dollars, and it's repaying this debt [00:04:00] with new debt. That is, with new debt, with these new loans that go from one pocket to [00:04:03] another. And every year, approximately 2 trillion dollars are added [00:04:07] to that debt. They say it's the most indebted country in the world. If [00:04:11] it had something strange in its magic box, it would have fixed [00:04:14] that first, and then it would have moved on to other issues. [00:04:18] And petrodollars wouldn't have been [00:04:29] they have played not all their cards, but 80% of their cards. [00:04:33] Maybe 20% of their cards are still unplayed, but [00:04:37] I think Iran's unplayed cards [00:04:39] are more. This is my guess and my analysis. [00:04:43] And my conclusion is that our [00:04:46] problem in the economic war and resilience, [00:04:49] Mr. Razavi, our problem, dear viewers, is not [00:04:53] America. Our problem is ourselves, our economic [00:04:56] governance model. And [00:05:01] now a series of political economy issues that are imposed on that governance [00:05:04] model have caused us [00:05:22] was good or bad, because some people say that I only mentioned its economic aspect. I know [00:05:26] that some people say that it created an opportunity for us too. For example, [00:05:30] the 80 million barrels that we sent out to sea, [00:05:34] well, we had to do something for [00:05:38] this to happen. Although, the naval blockade after the negotiations [00:05:41] in Islamabad [00:05:48] was supposed to be like that. And well, I don't care, some things like [00:05:51] hitting infrastructure, we [00:05:54] gained experience from this. We must admit [00:05:58] that we, the Iranian nation, together, have the right to say that some [00:06:02] things happened until we saw the 12-day war. We didn't know, for example, this thing or opinion, we [00:06:05] knew it, we understood its practical [00:06:08] positive and negative aspects. Now, they ask here, "What if oil prices go up?" [00:06:12] I think on the first or second day of the war, [00:06:16] Mr. Shakeri was on the phone in the program and said this point. Some people [00:06:20] actually raised this as a criticism, but I think it was a very accurate and correct point that [00:06:24] we were discussing with you before the program today, and this was emphasized: [00:06:27] that if oil prices suddenly jump [00:06:30] (let's call it an overshoot), a sudden jump [00:06:33] to 120 dollars, 130 dollars, what do I know, [00:06:37] 115 dollars, for example, sudden jumps might happen [00:06:40] for the reasons you mentioned. Now, the second question is whether it's even good for us or not, [00:06:44] because at first glance, it's good, right? It's a pressure, but on the other hand, there's always a point [00:06:48] that they say a type of, that is, the pressure [00:06:51] in the market now is for what? I'm saying this for the viewers to know. [00:06:55] The question is getting long. The pressure is for what? The supply is low. [00:06:58] A certain amount, a type [00:07:01] of oil extraction exists that is specifically, for example, shale [00:07:05] and some other forms. These [00:07:08] are very expensive to produce. [00:07:11] Therefore, when oil prices are low, [00:07:25] millions of barrels will enter the market in a short period (not tomorrow, [00:07:28] for example), and this will turn out to be against your interest. [00:07:32] There's an answer that Mr. Shakeri also gave before, but now you [00:07:35] can also say it: Is it good for us that oil prices go up, or not? Or rather, [00:07:39] to what extent is it good for the other side? [00:08:21] assumed that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, right now, [00:08:24] what will happen? So, 15-16 years [00:08:28] ago, you took the trouble to examine the dependence [00:08:31] of industrial countries on oil exported from the Strait of Hormuz, estimating the demand function [00:08:34] for oil in the Persian Gulf. We ran several [00:08:38] econometric models to see how really the elasticities [00:08:42] are. Elasticity means the coefficient of change in variables [00:08:45] relative to each other. That is, what happens to demand if the price becomes this? What happens to renewable [00:08:49] energies? And so on. The output that [00:08:52] we reached was that first, something that was addressed [00:08:56] in the article at that time is that Saudi Arabia [00:09:00] is waiting to make Yanbu a substitute for the Strait of Hormuz. [00:09:03] That is, the same [00:09:06] pipeline. Yes, that part. The [00:09:09] conclusion of the article was, in line with what Mr. [00:09:13] Khezab mentioned regarding whether high oil prices are beneficial or detrimental to us. [00:09:16] The output of the article that we reached 16 years ago was [00:09:20] that in the short term, [00:09:24] raising oil prices by closing the strait and reducing [00:09:27] supply will result [00:09:30] in industrial countries having no solution, [00:09:34] meaning they will be checkmated. They will be in a stalemate, [00:09:37] they won't be able to do anything. And that [00:09:40] price [00:09:43] cannot be covered or [00:09:47] managed by any means, and no [00:09:49] change will occur in the structure of global oil demand [00:09:53] in the short term. Short term, what period? A period [00:09:57] between one to two years. One to two years [00:10:01] from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, in a way that, according to [00:10:04] our previous charts, the structure of the global energy market will be affected by a contract that [00:10:07] will remain a source, and it will be able to influence [00:10:10] this SPR, putting China under pressure. Now, Saudi Arabia is also under [00:10:14] pressure from two fronts, and this is in the short [00:10:17] term, and for war, this short term is important to us. We don't want to see [00:10:21] what happens in the market structure in 5 years. We don't want to keep the Strait of [00:10:25] Hormuz closed for 5 years, but [00:10:29] the finding of the article was that in the long term, beyond two years, if the strait [00:10:32] remains closed, it will gradually lose its importance in the global [00:10:36] oil demand function, and [00:10:40] shale oil will be substituted due to high oil prices. [00:10:43] Renewable energies will be substituted. [00:10:48] Other oil export routes like Yanbu [00:10:51] and Bab el-Mandeb will replace the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, we discussed those materials, [00:10:54] and they cannot be safe again. They won't be safe, [00:10:58] but economically, they will supply the market. [00:11:01] Yes, they can, but if the market was supplied at $60 oil, [00:11:05] now it's supplied at $100. Then it will be supplied at $160, [00:11:08] which again goes back to the bond yield. [00:11:11] Well, this means a terrible inflation caused by [00:11:15] cost-push or pressure from energy costs in the global [00:11:18] economy, which will again [00:11:26] the domestic situation. We have a serious dilemma now. People say that some [00:11:30] are portraying it as either we have to address people's livelihood [00:11:33] or we have to resist. This approach you are talking [00:11:37] about, resilience, resilience, [00:11:39] resilience, okay, let's accept it. If we [00:11:43] maintain this line, America's situation will be [00:11:46] ruined. We must be able to preserve ourselves, or not? Let's assume [00:11:50] America's situation also worsened. When my economic situation is so [00:11:54] bad that I don't know, so many percent of society [00:11:57] are below the poverty line, there's pressure, inflation, what's the point? Whatever happened [00:12:01] to America, happened. We must be able to remain. You [00:12:05] made a point, you said, "I think the problem is not there, the problem is domestic, [00:12:38] obvious. What caused [00:12:41] Israel and [00:12:44] America to covet attacking us? What was the reason? [00:12:47] The reason was that they felt people were extremely [00:12:51] dissatisfied economically, and with the [00:12:57] actions they would take, it would lead to a series [00:13:00] of events that would bring them to their ultimate goal, which is [00:13:03] the disintegration of Iran. I'm not saying [00:13:06] their ultimate goal is the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. By no means is their ultimate [00:13:10] goal the disintegration of Iran. That's still there, [00:13:14] and it's a gradual process, [00:13:18] and it will reach that goal. [00:13:25] for years, this discussion we are having now, Mr. Razavi, is not [00:13:29] political, it's really not political, it's about numbers [00:13:33] and figures. And if my writings [00:13:36] are seen, we have always said these things from the perspective of an economic [00:13:40] expert: that [00:13:43] this economic approach will lead to [00:13:47] what? What exactly is this, I mean, why [00:13:50] does it lead to a cliff? [00:13:54] Look, we have many [00:13:57] and diverse issues in our economy. [00:14:00] We have the energy issue, we have fuel smuggling, [00:14:04] and imbalances, and [00:14:07] so on and so forth. But in economics, we say "price," [00:14:11] or the price of governance. Then it shows [00:14:15] itself in inflation. That is, if governance [00:14:17] is good, it shows itself in inflation. If it's bad, it also shows itself [00:14:21] in inflation. Economic governance [00:14:25] is the root cause of all these issues. In our energy discussions, [00:14:28] in all discussions about imbalances and so on, [00:14:31] it's inflation. That is, unless you [00:14:34] solve inflation in the Iranian economy, none [00:14:38] of your problems will be solved. So, now if you make gasoline 87,000 tomans, [00:14:42] tomorrow [00:14:42] morning, [00:14:46] in about 6 months, you'll have to make it 160,000 tomans [00:14:50] again, because the root cause, inflation, has not disappeared. You [00:14:53] have an inflation engine. Now, what is the reason [00:14:57] for inflation in Iran? The reason for inflation [00:15:00] in Iran is a series of structural issues. A [00:15:04] part of it is sanctions. A [00:15:06] part of it is global [00:15:09] inflation. I give these [00:15:12] 30% weight. 70% of our inflation [00:15:16] is the unauthorized increase in the monetary [00:15:20] base and liquidity. [00:15:23] And 50 to 60% (between [00:15:27] 40 and 60%) of that increase in the monetary base is due to [00:15:29] banks. That is, look, our government now, [00:15:33] in all past governments, you [00:15:36] remember, right? There was one of the ministers [00:15:40] who increased salaries by 50%. They fired him, [00:15:43] didn't they? Yes. They fired him. He was the Minister of Labor [00:15:46] under Raisi. Yes. They fired him because he wanted to [00:15:50] increase salaries so much, saying it would cause inflation. Whereas, if you compare [00:15:53] the amount of liquidity increase due to salary increases or food [00:15:57] coupons or other issues with [00:16:00] the liquidity that banks are creating due to imbalance [00:16:04] and the main factors of those events, [00:16:11] it's just a drop in the ocean. That is, even if you increase [00:16:15] salaries by 100%, how are banks increasing [00:16:18] liquidity? A bank is on the verge of bankruptcy. [00:16:22] When this happens in the world, for example, in Britain, [00:16:26] suddenly the British government closes seven banks, which it has done. [00:16:29] It happened in Britain in history. You can search and see. It was a world [00:16:33] war. Yes. Or in America, during the 2008 [00:16:37] crisis, they tell bankrupt banks in the morning, "Go hold a liquidation meeting." They close the bank. [00:16:41] The bank, sir, is an economic institution. It's closed. You invested [00:16:45] here. You made a mistake. We don't close it, do we? What do we do? [00:16:48] We take money from our pockets, [00:16:52] we create inflation by printing money, we go and cover [00:16:56] the bank's imbalance. We print money not for [00:17:00] people's situation, but to protect the bank. Exactly. [00:17:03] Sometimes I print money for someone who can't buy [00:17:07] even a kilo of meat in a year. I give them meat, which doesn't even raise inflation [00:17:11] much because it doesn't manipulate the monetary base significantly. [00:17:14] In fact, it might even boost production because it strengthens domestic production, [00:17:18] and demand for it increases. I create money, create inflation, [00:17:22] and bring inflation to people's [00:17:24] tables so that those corrupt [00:17:27] economic oligarchs' banks don't go [00:17:31] bankrupt. Exactly, so their banks don't go bankrupt. [00:17:34] So, what does this have to do with sanctions and the dichotomy of sanctions and the dichotomy [00:17:38] of livelihood? What do I know? They probably say [00:17:42] this bank is investing in some sensitive area, they say things like that. [00:17:46] We should probably protect it. I'll give you a benchmark now, an [00:17:49] example: Argentina, [00:17:51] Egypt, Turkey, [00:17:54] and [00:17:57] Poland and Korea [00:18:00] are countries that not only have good relations with America, [00:18:04] but some are even colonies of America and Israel. Argentina is the second largest Jewish [00:18:07] population in the world, after Israel. That is, Jews have a strong influence [00:18:11] there. Their current president, who has a very close relationship with Netanyahu, [00:18:15] Javier Milei, Argentina, has the worst economic situation in the world. [00:18:18] The interest rate is around 80, [00:18:22] and inflation is triple digits. [00:18:24] Well, as a result, [00:18:28] the condition [00:18:30] for improving people's livelihood has absolutely no relation to this. [00:18:34] Yes, I'm not saying sanctions are ineffective. Sanctions [00:18:38] are a catalyst for our problems. That is, we [00:18:41] have strange problems in [00:18:43] our economy that if we sell oil [00:18:47] and its money comes in, we can use the Dutch [00:18:50] Disease mechanism to sweep those [00:18:54] problems under the rug for now. But they won't be resolved [00:18:58] by that. Exactly like what happened in 1973 after [00:19:01] the oil shock of 1973 in Iran. As soon as that oil money is gone, we suddenly [00:19:05] face a surge in inflation. Towards the end of Mohammad Reza [00:19:09] Pahlavi's era, our inflation reached 245%, whereas [00:19:13] before, it was always below 5-6%. Why? Because that petrodollar [00:19:16] was no longer there, that oil money was no longer there to cover the problems. Well, [00:19:20] here it's exactly the same. Sir, you have a terrible economic [00:19:23] governance based on conflicting [00:19:26] interests with the people, which is [00:19:29] creating liquidity and inflation. [00:19:32] Inflation whose benefit also doesn't go to [00:19:35] the people. That is, the money you print, you don't use to increase salaries, [00:19:39] you don't give goods to the people. If we do this, you say that [00:19:43] compared to the inflation that exists to protect [00:19:46] these financial institutions, this is nothing. So, if we [00:19:49] print money, did I understand correctly? If we print money, I'll tell you the numbers [00:19:53] and figures. In the crisis of 2017, [00:19:57] wasn't it? The crisis of financial and credit institutions, where several of them were dissolved. [00:20:00] Yes, in that year, our monetary base suddenly increased [00:20:04] by 17%. It's a disaster, 17%. [00:20:07] A monetary base that later led to terrible [00:20:11] inflationary shocks. Why? The government came and printed money [00:20:15] and sorted out those financial and credit institutions. [00:20:18] Or, for example, a bank that recently entered [00:20:22] the merger process with Bank Melli. Well, that wasn't liquidation. [00:20:25] They opened it again within the national assets. [00:20:29] Well, the question is, if we don't do this, in that same [00:20:32] issue, I remember Mr. Rouhani, [00:20:36] despite all the criticisms and his faults, said something like, "Someone who invested [00:20:40] where they shouldn't have, and then the government has to pay their money," [00:20:43] which actually comes from the pockets of all the people, not the government. It was a reality [00:20:47] here. The point is that, but the problem is, [00:20:51] someone who looks at it says, for example, if you want to touch imbalanced banks, [00:20:54] which, God bless, are not just one or two, it will create a security problem. [00:20:57] In the literature of policy science, we have a term [00:21:01] that says, "You don't have cost-free policy-making." [00:21:04] You ultimately, every decision you [00:21:08] make or don't make, some people get happy, some people get upset. [00:21:11] You have to see where the national interest [00:21:14] of the majority lies in which policy. Yes, [00:21:18] maybe those 10% on the street, [00:21:21] "Fereshteh ba Bala," will be upset by this policy if a bank goes bankrupt [00:21:25] or is liquidated. But what about the people? What about [00:21:28] the other 90% who have to pay the cost of that inflation? Ayandeh [00:21:32] Bank. Excuse me, money was not only [00:21:36] from Elahieh upwards. No, I'm talking about the majority. [00:21:39] Small depositors are not a big number, or small [00:22:29] these numbers and figures. Argentina, Egypt, [00:22:33] Turkey, Poland. How many of these are we [00:22:37] besieged by? We are actually under siege, blocked, as [00:22:41] they say. They've physically stopped my oil [00:22:44] exports. They claim that I don't know, they claim that these 30 million, [00:22:48] 208 million, if it's more, there's no oil on the water to sell, and so on. [00:22:51] My point is that, okay, you're saying [00:22:54] that 70% of economic issues, for example, relate to domestic [00:22:58] matters, and 30% are other issues. But the issue [00:23:01] of siege, the issue of the maximum economic pressure campaign that America [00:23:05] has launched. Now, please tell us, considering the discussion [00:23:09] you mentioned at the beginning of your remarks, that America's situation [00:23:12] has reached this point of resilience, and we also have a situation [00:23:16] here. In this situation, if, for example, [00:23:23] they continue very firmly, and tension remains [00:23:27] high, how do you present your arguments [00:23:31] in this situation? First, a new inflation should not be imposed [00:23:35] on the people. That is, that money-printing engine must be shut down. [00:23:38] The government should not pay for the banks' imbalances. [00:23:41] This is the most important action that must be taken. [00:23:45] Immediately, a very strict policy towards imbalanced [00:23:48] banks, merging and dissolving them, so that [00:23:52] at least we don't create inflation for ourselves. We have the inflation [00:23:55] of siege, we have the inflation of cost pressure. [00:23:59] Let's not create monetary inflation for ourselves from [00:24:03] printing money to resolve bank imbalances. [00:24:06] Second, Mr. Razavi, a country under siege [00:24:09] that doesn't have foreign currency, how are 500-billion-rial and 400-billion-rial Lexus cars [00:24:13] imported? How is foreign currency allocated for this? These countries' [00:24:16] economy is a war economy. [00:24:20] This is a war economy. If it's foreign currency, how are these things coming in? [00:24:24] How are all these luxury goods that you see [00:24:27] in the city and elsewhere coming in? With what [00:24:30] foreign currency are they coming in? In what way are they being imported? [00:24:49] that you are dealing with a mechanism inside [00:24:52] the country where that bureaucratic [00:24:55] system simply doesn't allow [00:24:59] your knots to be untied. As you said, you know that [00:25:02] in these two months of 1405, [00:25:06] ۱۴۰۵ [00:25:09] our, excuse me, at the end [00:25:12] of 1404 and then 1405, compared [00:25:16] to 1404, our economic growth has gone up. [00:25:20] Why? Because practically many government managers were not working. I emphasize [00:25:24] again, I'm not talking about this government. What happens is that the government manager facilitates [00:25:27] affairs. Who was it? An exporter gave an interview [00:25:31] a while ago, saying, "I came from China to the Khorasan border in two [00:25:35] weeks. I was in customs for three weeks." This was Mr. Laylaz. [00:25:39] Well, he said, "I waited behind our own customs for three weeks." "I came there in two weeks." [00:25:42] I passed the siege. Yes, I passed the siege and stayed in customs for a week. [00:25:46] Well, what is my point? My point is that, yes, [00:25:50] there is a siege, and the siege still exists. I also said what the solution to the siege is. [00:25:53] That is, as he puts pressure on us, we must [00:25:57] also apply our pressure. But people should be sure that the economy... [00:26:01] Look, I'll give a few examples. [00:26:32] The automotive industry, you might not believe it, the top 10 countries in the world, [00:26:35] in terms of infrastructure, meaning the machinery our car manufacturers [00:26:39] have, are capable of producing the latest cars in the world. [00:26:43] Now, the fact that they don't produce them is due to management technology and so on. [00:26:47] Well, and other issues. I want to tell [00:26:50] you that Iran has so much capacity, so many [00:26:54] resources, that firstly, it will never experience hyperinflation. [00:26:58] Secondly, all ways [00:27:01] of siege are manageable. [00:27:26] With economic policy reforms, by [00:27:28] prioritizing the interests of 99%, [00:27:33] this is easily solvable, and on the other hand, we see America's situation as very [00:27:36] sensitive. Then, look, even before, we have to break that, [00:27:40] but from the domestic discussion, [00:27:44] I mean, I want to illustrate this: if people's situation [00:27:47] is bad, if we have inflation, if things are bad, [00:27:51] and this inflation is also the cause of all other issues, [00:27:55] what is the reason? The reason is that our [00:27:58] economic management itself has flaws. That is, if I want to assign weight [00:28:02] with numbers and figures, [00:28:05] more than two-thirds of your problems can be [00:28:09] solved if you fix your economic management model. One minute. [00:28:12] How can we end the war? America should give up [00:28:16] hope that there are some people in Iran who want to surrender, [00:28:19] and people's livelihood must be covered, [00:28:22] not with money. The government must provide [00:28:26] all Iranian people with [00:28:29] their UBI or at least [00:28:32] their daily caloric needs through goods, not [00:28:36] goods that lose value against inflation every day. [00:28:45] we have based on what the oil price was, [00:28:49] that 20 billion dollars is nothing, we have a little [00:28:52] more. We sold this [00:28:55] much more expensively. Even if we sell for less, it was not less, we have rejected it from [00:28:59] the blockade. We have been discussing this for a month now and until the end of the year and more. [00:29:32] The stormy, most enduring battlements [00:29:35] of history. The Citadel and the Mosque of Ali Shah [00:29:38] are the identity of the resistance [00:29:40] of Azerbaijan and the steadfastness of the Iranian [00:29:44] nation against oppressors and [00:29:47] aggressors. The fortress of the defenders of Iran and [00:29:50] the arena of the Mujahideen of the Constitutional Revolution and today [00:29:54] this proud wounded in the ages [00:29:57] is observing the national event of Iran, [00:30:01] East Azerbaijan. Iran. The Citadel [00:30:04] of Tabriz, its head in the sky, its foot in [00:30:08] the soil of Iran. Iran, [00:30:11] East Azerbaijan, Iran. [00:30:31] Hello. Welcome to the 2:30 news from the News Channel. [00:30:35] The amount of ration cards will increase in mid-October. [00:30:38] The government spokesman has given this news and said that the amount of [00:30:42] ration cards for vulnerable groups will increase [00:30:45] and it is not related to the payment of subsidies and other [00:30:49] livelihood aid from the government. Ms. Mohajerani also [00:30:52] said that the approved resolution of the share of gasoline [00:30:56] for new cars over one billion will also be discussed.