IRINN — broadcast 20261011 170000 UTC 419 transcript segments Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking Data courtesy of The GDELT Project (https://www.gdeltproject.org/), from the Internet Archive TV News Archive. Machine transcription. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a verbatim quotation record. [00:00:00] do whatever they can. For example, I think the war [00:00:03] that recently started between Ansar Allah and the Saudis, where [00:00:07] Ansar Allah attacks [00:00:10] energy infrastructures inside Saudi Arabia, [00:00:13] restricting the flow of Saudi oil to [00:00:17] global markets, is good news for Iran. I'm not saying [00:00:21] Iran told Ansar Allah to start [00:00:24] this conflict, because I don't believe such a thing happened. [00:00:27] But nevertheless, [00:00:30] the conflict between Ansar Allah and the Saudis is in Iran's favor [00:00:33] because it puts more economic pressure on the global economy. [00:00:37] In fact, it puts more pressure on President Trump. [00:00:40] So, the more problems there are in the Middle East, or the Persian [00:00:43] Gulf region, and the Red Sea region, the more [00:00:47] it benefits Iran, because Iran's leverage [00:00:51] is now basically economic. And of course, America's [00:00:54] leverage against Iran is also mainly economic [00:00:58] now. There's no military option here. [00:01:51] If you look at the result, like the 40-day war, you see that despite [00:01:54] it appearing to be a mistake, their assessment was correct. [00:01:58] What did they say before the 40-day war? They said there won't be a war because [00:02:02] a war won't achieve what they want. [00:02:05] But I said, what was the difference between Trump and that person? [00:02:08] That person's assessment was that war would achieve that. [00:02:12] Ultimately, who predicted correctly? Mearsheimer. [00:02:16] Now he's still considering Trump a very [00:02:20] reasonable person. He sees himself in Trump. [00:02:23] Well, of course, that's not [00:02:27] the case. And he says that Americans [00:02:30] will not attack, neither before the mid-term elections nor after the mid-term elections, at least [00:02:34] in the short term, until there's a technological leap in military matters [00:02:38] that would significantly increase America's capabilities. [00:02:42] He says they won't attack. Why? Because [00:02:45] they did everything they could [00:02:49] in the 40-day war, and because [00:02:53] the situation worsened, as he says in the first part of this conversation, [00:02:56] because the situation worsened, they came to an agreement with the Iranians. [00:03:00] In fact, the content of the agreement wasn't very important to him. He wanted to sign [00:03:04] something to finish it, and his plan was not [00:03:07] to act on it. What he's saying is [00:03:10] that he would sign anything because he didn't want to act on it. The content wasn't [00:03:14] very important to him, but he wanted the signature for this [00:03:18] to end. Now, his prediction and logic is this: [00:03:21] what will happen now, we'll have to see. Excuse me, just one [00:03:25] sentence. He's considering an optimal point. He says, not before the elections, not close [00:03:29] to the elections, not after. You have to put pressure to a point where [00:03:33] he gives the concessions you want. That's the point of maximum pressure. Reach that maximum point and don't worry [00:03:36] about the other time. And based on what happened, exactly at this [00:03:40] sensitive time in Yemen and in the Strait of Bab al-Mandab, we have this very [00:03:44] important energy event. Yes, well, let's go to the sixth [00:03:47] part of the conversation. This is it, that now the Russia issue, which Trump [00:03:51] is trying a little bit, because it doesn't have a very amazing [00:03:55] effect on the US energy discussion. We should talk about it separately, but even that little bit [00:03:59] is still [00:04:26] a decision or decisions [00:04:28] that Tehran might make [00:04:32] that would lead to [00:04:35] an aggressive attack by the US on Iran. [00:04:37] happen. [00:04:43] What wrong decisions might Tehran make that would [00:04:47] lead to another [00:04:49] attack on itself? [00:04:53] See, the first question I ask myself when I think about another [00:04:57] possible attack from the US is whether [00:05:00] the Israelis will also be involved and what targets [00:05:04] inside Iran they will hit. You should know that the Americans [00:05:07] and Israelis together carried out a 40-day strategic bombing operation [00:05:10] from February 28th to [00:05:14] April 8th, but it failed to force [00:05:17] the Iranians to surrender. In fact, the Americans [00:05:20] and Israelis were forced to end that [00:05:24] 40-day operation because their valuable [00:05:27] ammunition was running out. [00:05:31] It's very important to know that since April 8th, the US has not carried out [00:05:34] any widespread air operations against [00:05:37] Iran. We had two periods of retaliatory [00:05:41] attacks, during which Iranians and Americans carried out limited attacks on each other, [00:05:44] and each period lasted about two weeks. These were [00:05:48] retaliatory attacks, not a strategic bombing operation, limited bombings [00:05:52] by Iran and the US. The Americans stopped [00:05:55] those retaliatory attacks because, firstly, we couldn't use more [00:05:59] weapons. We wanted to save our valuable weapons. [00:06:03] Secondly, these attacks were not yielding results. So, the question you should [00:06:06] ask yourself is, what will we do next time that will work? Our [00:06:10] weapons are still limited. Even if we involve Israel, [00:06:14] they didn't help much last time. Why should they help [00:06:17] a lot this time? So, I think the only possible explanation for what's [00:06:21] different this time is that this time we're going to hit Iran's oil and gas [00:06:25] infrastructure. We're going to hit refineries, [00:06:28] transportation networks, and port facilities. Power plants, [00:06:32] yes, yes, exactly. Well, there's no doubt that the US and Israel [00:06:36] can do that, but the problem from the US perspective is that Iran has [00:06:39] retaliatory capabilities, and Iranians can hit countries on the Persian Gulf [00:06:43] and Israel itself. They can disable oil facilities and desalination [00:06:47] plants in places like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Iranians can [00:06:51] cause a lot of damage in those countries and [00:06:55] also inside Israel, and this has disastrous [00:06:59] consequences for the global economy. You could say this ends up benefiting Iran. [00:07:03] Of course, the destruction within Iran would be terrible. I don't want to downplay [00:07:06] that. But if these back-and-forth air attacks [00:07:10] ultimately destroy oil facilities throughout the Persian Gulf [00:07:14] and cause severe damage to the Persian Gulf countries and Israel itself, [00:07:17] then in my opinion, this is not a winning strategy. [00:07:21] I don't believe anyone in the Trump administration thinks that going [00:07:25] down this path will lead to victory. In fact, it will only [00:07:28] make a bad situation worse. Furthermore, the reason why we, I mean the Americans, [00:07:31] haven't attacked Iran's oil facilities and energy [00:07:35] infrastructure so far is because we know it won't work. This [00:07:38] is not a smart strategy today. It [00:07:41] wasn't a smart strategy in the past, and it won't be a smart strategy [00:07:45] after the November elections either. Now, this doesn't mean that President [00:07:49] Trump won't do it, because who knows for sure what Trump will do? [00:07:52] But the only thing I'm telling you is that you yourselves [00:07:56] surely know that strategically, it's not logical for the US [00:07:59] to target Iran's oil, gas, and energy infrastructure [00:08:02] inside Iran. Again, what I mean by all of this is that I don't [00:08:06] think we have a military [00:08:08] option. [00:08:11] Again, I ask, what shouldn't Tehran do [00:08:14] to avoid this potential attack on itself? [00:08:17] If you want to talk about what Iran [00:08:21] should or shouldn't do to prevent another [00:08:24] round of these attacks, [00:08:27] and keep the pressure on the American side, forcing it [00:08:31] to make an agreement, what is that proposal? What are the [00:08:34] wrong policies that Tehran might adopt? [00:08:38] It's very hard to say. I mean, Tehran must be prepared to retaliate [00:08:42] if the US attacks its oil and energy infrastructure. [00:08:45] I think the Iranians must make it clear [00:08:48] to the US. Of course, I think they have already done so. Iranian leaders have very [00:08:52] clearly stated that if the US and Israel, or even the US alone, attacks [00:08:55] Iran and targets its oil energy [00:08:59] infrastructure, Iran will retaliate. Iran [00:09:02] will respond powerfully, and I think it's very much in Iran's [00:09:05] interest to make this clear, as it has [00:09:08] done. I don't think it's in Iran's interest [00:09:11] to initiate a widespread attack on the oil [00:09:15] energy infrastructure and desalination facilities in any of [00:09:19] the Persian Gulf countries. I think [00:09:22] Iran should have this as an option for retaliation, [00:09:26] but it's not logical to start a conflict now with a preemptive attack on the oil infrastructure [00:09:30] of the Persian Gulf countries. [00:09:33] I think what the Iranians want and are doing [00:09:36] is constantly looking for smart solutions [00:09:40] until then. [00:09:56] If you look at the bond yields in [00:09:59] the world, you know I'm not an economist, [00:10:03] so I don't specialize in these matters, but all [00:10:06] the economists and business people I know say that [00:10:10] rising bond yields are very important. [00:10:25] The market will continue to soar and cause serious damage to the global economy. [00:10:28] Again, I say, any bad event for the global [00:10:32] economy is certainly not good for the US or most countries [00:10:36] in the world, but the paradox is that it's good for Iran because it gains [00:10:40] its leverage from this, and of course, the Iranians have done everything [00:10:43] they can to put pressure on the global economy and at the same time minimize [00:10:47] the pressure inside Iran. [00:10:48] برسونند [00:10:53] I played with the question a bit and tried to ask it in a way that [00:10:57] also brings up that different perspective. I think it was very clear. I elaborated [00:11:01] on Trump's mental health. He said, "I don't know either." That [00:11:05] point we made, he also said, "I'm saying [00:11:08] this as a logical option, he shouldn't [00:11:12] do this, but who knows what this lunatic is capable [00:11:16] of?" Yes, in the economic discussion, he still emphasizes that [00:11:19] any action that Iran takes to pressure the global economy, and of course, [00:11:23] he emphasizes again, he says, "We have mentioned this many times in Vahid's [00:11:26] program, Nima mentioned it, what has caused [00:11:30] the enemy not to attack our infrastructure [00:11:33] is that it knows we will respond very strongly to the region's [00:11:37] and Israel's infrastructure." You can respond because it knows [00:11:40] you have power. If we didn't, [00:11:44] I've said this many times, they make no distinction between us and the people of Gaza. [00:11:48] They can do it there. Here [00:11:50] the cost is high. Here they have to pay the price. That's [00:11:54] why they don't do it. See, and of course, he rejects a preemptive attack. [00:11:58] He says Iran shouldn't do this preemptive attack on infrastructure, a widespread attack on infrastructure [00:12:01] that would lead to a response. That is, exactly, see, the same point that [00:12:05] he won't hit the infrastructure. You, as a threat, keep the Sword [00:12:09] of Damocles hanging there, but put pressure on [00:12:12] the economy. Iran is saying Iran must increase economic pressure. Naturally, [00:12:16] that means controlling Hormuz. The simplest is that Emirati [00:12:19] ships, the route should really be the Omani route. Oman should [00:12:23] really be out of it. [00:12:26] This Emirati route is closed. I really mean in the past few [00:12:30] nights, Iran is really showing a stronger approach. [00:12:33] It was strong, it's showing a stronger one, that leak in the Strait of Hormuz that we mentioned. [00:12:36] It's called a leak, but it's a very big leak. It should really [00:12:40] be completely blocked, Insha'Allah. This is the same pressure, without touching the infrastructure of other countries. [00:12:43] This itself is an important point. The last question, UAE, [00:12:47] it also concerns the UAE. Let's hear our last question and return [00:12:51] to the studio for the final part of the analysis. [00:13:25] and joined Israel, because the others had only provided their bases [00:13:28] to them, or Iran was attacked from their territory and airspace, [00:13:32] but the Emiratis even attacked Iranian territory [00:13:36] with their own Mirage fighters and dropped bombs [00:13:39] on Iran. Of course, [00:13:42] the Iranians also retaliated by attacking [00:13:46] the Emiratis. Here's a question: some people [00:13:49] believe that since the UAE has normalized [00:13:52] its relations with Israel and is Iran's neighbor, [00:13:58] it has a very significant impact on Iran's economy. [00:14:01] The UAE has historically facilitated [00:14:04] Iran's economic activities through Dubai, meaning the UAE played a very important role in [00:14:08] Iran's economy. Some believe that the economic problems [00:14:11] Iran is facing also have their roots in [00:14:14] the UAE. Some believe Iran can [00:14:17] draw the UAE towards itself and separate it [00:14:21] from Israel. Others say no, this is not possible. [00:14:25] The UAE will not prefer Iran over [00:14:27] Israel. How do you analyze the UAE's role [00:14:31] in this region, and also in this war and aggression? [00:14:34] Well, I think there's no doubt that your description of the UAE and its relationship [00:14:38] with Israel and the US, and with Iran, is correct. I think [00:14:41] the main issue is what happens next. Now, a lot [00:14:45] depends on how you see [00:14:48] the future of US bases and [00:14:52] the future of the US security umbrella in the Gulf. [00:14:55] As we know, on February 7th, [00:14:58] the US had many very important [00:15:02] military facilities in the Persian Gulf. [00:15:05] At that time, it seemed that its security umbrella [00:15:09] was completely over all the Persian Gulf countries [00:15:12] and the US, with all those bases, [00:15:16] was in a very good position to ensure the security of countries like [00:15:19] the UAE. Now, we know that's no [00:15:23] longer the case. The Iranians have almost [00:15:25] severely damaged or destroyed [00:15:28] all US military facilities in the Persian Gulf. In fact, [00:15:32] as you know, we have transferred a large part of our military equipment [00:15:36] to Jordan and Israel. [00:15:43] From now on, it's not clear if the US can effectively [00:15:47] ensure the security of the UAE or other Persian Gulf countries, [00:15:50] and in my opinion, this means that from now on, it's in the interest of the Persian [00:15:54] Gulf countries to reach some kind of agreement [00:15:57] for coexistence with Iran. It's not very [00:16:01] logical for a country like Saudi Arabia or the UAE to have [00:16:04] hostile relations with Iran. [00:16:07] The idea that the US can protect them, because as we've seen since February 8th, [00:16:11] the US can not only not protect these countries, [00:16:15] but it has also caused a war that has inflicted immense damage [00:16:18] on these countries. So, the US has shown that it's more of a nuisance than [00:16:22] a help. All of this means that the UAE's [00:16:25] calculations from now on are different from what they were before February [00:16:29] 8th, and even from the past few months. The UAE must seriously [00:16:33] consider how it wants to interact with Iran in the future. [00:16:37] And in my opinion, from a purely strategic and [00:16:40] calculating perspective, the UAE has a significant interest [00:16:44] in changing its policy towards Iran, just like [00:16:48] the other Persian Gulf countries. It's also [00:16:51] in their interest to improve their relations with Iran. This was [00:16:55] my first main point. My second main point [00:16:58] is that it's completely clear that Iran now [00:17:02] has a truly powerful arsenal of ballistic [00:17:05] missiles, missiles that can [00:17:11] cause immense damage to the UAE, among others. And I imagine [00:17:15] that from now on, what will happen is that Iran's arsenal [00:17:18] will become larger and more lethal, and this is a very [00:17:22] big problem for the UAE. The UAE will become very vulnerable [00:17:26] to Iranian attacks, and in my opinion, the Iranians will make it clear [00:17:29] to them that if they cause [00:17:33] trouble, they will have to pay a heavy [00:17:36] price. And as we both know, [00:17:40] the Iranians are capable of inflicting a very heavy [00:17:43] blow on the UAE. So, the UAE will be in a situation where [00:17:47] there are serious limitations on the amount of trouble it can cause [00:17:51] for Iran, because the balance of power is clearly in favor [00:17:54] of the Iranians. If you put Iran and the UAE face-to-face in a battle, [00:17:57] it's like Bambi against Godzilla. Iran is Godzilla [00:18:01] and the UAE is Bambi. In short, if we go back to my first point, I think it's in the UAE's [00:18:05] interest to improve its relations with Iran and not get into a conflict. [00:18:09] This doesn't mean that the UAE should have hostile relations with the US [00:18:12] or even hostile relations with Israel. [00:18:16] I think from the UAE's perspective, it might be very logical to try [00:18:19] to significantly improve its relations with Iran, but at the same time, also have good [00:18:23] relations with the US and Israel. In short, I don't think [00:18:26] the UAE will cause significant trouble for Iran from now on. [00:18:30] In fact, I don't think any country in the Persian Gulf will be a serious [00:18:33] threat to Iran from now on, because Iran is much more powerful. [00:18:42] Thank you very much, Professor John Mearsheimer, [00:18:46] for being with us. Thank you for accepting our invitation and giving us your time. [00:18:50] You're welcome. It's a pleasure to be on your program. [00:18:53] Thank you. Well, this is the last part. I think [00:18:57] we have about 67 minutes of the program. What is your [00:19:00] opinion on the UAE? How do you see his perspective, and [00:19:04] are there signs of a change in behavior? [00:19:34] And people who, after all, benefit from these economic [00:19:38] relationships. In terms of military power, he's absolutely right. He says [00:19:42] Iran has shown itself at a level where no country [00:19:45] in this region should essentially challenge it [00:19:48] anymore. But, again, [00:19:52] my understanding is that the UAE has made its decision, [00:19:55] and he's really right. It's not [00:19:58] in the UAE's interest to get into a conflict. [00:20:02] Bambi fighting Godzilla is to Bambi's detriment. [00:20:05] But I say, again, my understanding is that [00:20:09] the UAE has made its decision. Netanyahu's visit to the UAE just a few [00:20:13] days ago should be carefully considered. For example, they didn't [00:20:17] think, "Oh, he suddenly went there." They were put on the spot, [00:20:20] for example, they didn't know what to say, so they said, "Well, [00:20:24] he's a guest now, he came, let's have some tea," and so on. These [00:20:27] thoughts must be discarded. We need to look [00:20:31] more carefully. But these [00:20:34] thoughts, which are actually good, are thoughts that believe that the UAE's Crown Prince [00:20:38] is anti-Israeli and under pressure. For example, he keeps saying, [00:20:41] "Please don't come to my house." Then he suddenly lands his plane there, [00:20:45] and this one says, "He's God's guest, he must come in." [00:20:48] خداست باید بیاد تو. [00:21:38] UAE, look, all the countries in the southern Persian Gulf, in their hostility [00:21:41] towards Iran, all of them were hostile. Yes, [00:21:45] the good ones, as mentioned, had American bases there. Let's not [00:21:49] forget that. [00:21:54] But they have all lost something at present. There was only one [00:21:58] country that had invested in the future, [00:22:01] and it lost that future, and that was the UAE. Look, if [00:22:05] investment security is compromised anywhere, [00:22:08] then all countries are harmed. But there was only one [00:22:11] that, if investment security doesn't exist, has nothing [00:22:15] at all. It is, after all, an oil and gas producer, but it is [00:22:18] a very small part. All [00:22:21] of these, for example, have a tourism industry, [00:22:25] the issue of airlines, all of them have them to some extent, but there's one [00:22:29] whose airline industry, its aviation industry in the world, [00:22:33] is its own. That one is the UAE. All of them have worked [00:22:36] in the AI field. All of them, more or less, but [00:22:40] one of them has gone into it massively. This is that same [00:22:43] investment in the future. The UAE only [00:22:47] has one that has a territorial problem with Iran. [00:22:50] That is, it has a territorial claim against our territorial [00:22:53] integrity. Well, this is the UAE. Therefore, it is saying I have no [00:22:57] choice but for Iran to lose this war. Now, some people in [00:23:01] our country think that if the UAE [00:23:04] says, "Well, for example, your prisoners were here for 10 years. [00:23:07] Oh, I didn't know you had prisoners. Why didn't you say sooner?" [00:23:11] "Let's take the prisoners, release them." If the UAE is so [00:23:15] good, why didn't it release them sooner? Why the punches [00:23:18] and kicks during this time? [00:23:28] It's completely going the other way. What's the point? It's standing on the other side. [00:23:32] It has already made its decision. It has done its work. The idea that I would go [00:23:36] and talk with Bin Zayed and pull him out of Netanyahu's arms [00:23:39] and attract him. Attract him to what? What do we [00:23:42] want him to be attracted to? No, now Mearsheimer says, "Doesn't this person have any sense? [00:23:46] The person sitting in Abu Dhabi and Dubai doesn't see that, well, [00:23:50] with America, which was America, it's like a certain animal stuck [00:23:53] in a herd. What should I say in the middle of this?" I mean, I want to say, [00:23:57] does it not have worldly wisdom, calculated thinking? Does it not [00:24:00] do geopolitical analysis? The region is not like Mr. Mehr is analyzing [00:24:04] it. Israel's incompatibility with its neighbors is like a foreign body [00:24:08] that is stuck in someone's body after surgery. It simply cannot [00:24:11] be connected. Well, the UAE has brought itself to such a situation [00:24:15] with all its surrounding countries over the past 30 years, [00:24:18] and even beyond the region, in Sudan, in Libya, and in other places, [00:24:22] it has done the same. Therefore, it has no choice [00:24:25] but to follow this path, because if it wants to abandon the sources of power [00:24:29] it has defined for itself, it must abandon them. The UAE thrives [00:24:33] on confrontation, because of all this Israel. That is, Israel simply cannot [00:24:36] make peace. If it wants to make peace, it shouldn't exist. That's why [00:24:39] the UAE and Israel's logic becomes one, and that means [00:24:43] Israel becomes the UAE's Israel, or the UAE becomes [00:24:47] Israel's second. It doesn't really matter. That's why these two [00:24:50] cannot. Mearsheimer is saying that a country, for example, regarding Kuwait, he can say, "Kuwait is good [00:24:54] to be friends with both the US and Iran." Well, Kuwait, not the UAE. If [00:24:58] it actually wants, if I'm not [00:25:01] mistaken, you ultimately say, "Well, if it eventually gets [00:25:04] hit by reality and understands it, or wakes up from [00:25:08] this state of perhaps numbness and unconsciousness, [00:25:12] it's not unlikely to reach this point. So for the short term, [00:25:15] we are awake. You know, we also hit the UAE hard [00:25:19] during the 40-day war. Well, the issue is, this [00:25:22] person has made his decision to go to that side. [00:25:25] The war will eventually end with Iran in a position of superiority. [00:25:29] Will the UAE change its stance? In your opinion, no. [00:25:32] See, it's political life. See, something you should consider about the UAE [00:25:36] is the emirs themselves and their rivalry, which I think would require two or three [00:25:40] separate programs to explain. Well, first of all, [00:25:44] Abu Dhabi is not the same as Sharjah or Dubai. [00:25:47] ابوظبی با شارجه با دبی اینا یکی نیست. [00:26:39] Ya Ali, get a rhythm with Iranians, [00:26:42] get a continuous rhythm, [00:26:45] get a continuous passion, [00:26:48] hold the flag, hold the flag, [00:26:52] hold the strait firmly. [00:26:54] بگیریدا. [00:27:32] Hold the strait firmly, control the strait, [00:27:36] it's our undeniable right, [00:27:39] let's take it. The streets [00:27:42] are ours, our hand is [00:27:45] God's hand. Our enemy is [00:27:48] shameless, don't underestimate [00:27:52] the enemy. [00:27:52] کمگی. [00:28:32] Get a rhythm, control the strait, [00:28:36] it's our undeniable right, [00:28:39] take the strait. The streets [00:28:43] are ours, our hand is God's [00:28:46] hand. Our enemy is shameless, don't [00:28:49] underestimate the enemy. Hold the strait firmly, [00:28:52] hold the strait firmly. [00:28:54] بگیریم. [00:29:08] Turn the sea red with blood, capture the spirit of Muharram. [00:29:11] Hold it firmly. [00:29:14] Attention, attention! We are [00:29:17] always vigilant. No one can [00:29:20] repeat it. Hold the strait firmly, [00:29:24] hold the strait firmly. Don't [00:29:26] let go. Hold the strait firmly, [00:29:30] control the strait. [00:30:25] Greetings. Top news: [00:30:27] Domestic unity [00:30:30] and cohesion are the key to Iran's firmness [00:30:33] against threats. The President states that with national unity, [00:30:37] no enemy is capable of defeating the Iranian nation. [00:30:39] نیست. [00:30:44] We are powerful together. Let's all support each other. [00:30:47] Then we will build an Iran [00:30:51] that is powerful, steadfast, and growing in [00:30:55] all [00:30:56] fields. [00:30:59] Warning from the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.