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[00:00:00] Eulogies for the polls, this is the Yom Kippur of Yom
[00:00:03] Kippur. For months,
[00:00:06] we became addicted to the polls, even though we knew, we knew
[00:00:09] we would be disappointed, after all, the gaps between the channels were so
[00:00:13] big, someone had to be wrong.
[00:00:16] Someone, almost everyone missed in one way or
[00:00:19] another, Gantz is a straight party, not the largest party,
[00:00:23] and after them is the Likud with Netanyahu of course, 20
[00:00:26] seats. The party of Yoaz Hendel and Zaliha, four
[00:00:30] in our last
[00:00:32] seats pass the electoral threshold and you'll see this, Amcha Israel
[00:00:37] poll here passes the electoral threshold with four
[00:00:40] seats. The coalition 50 seats weakens
[00:00:43] by one seat, the opposition as mentioned strengthens by one seat, receives
[00:00:47] 56 seats, the Arab parties
[00:00:50] 14 seats. Pay attention, the right-wing bloc,
[00:00:53] five days to the elections with
[00:00:55] 62 seats, the left-wing bloc with 44.
[00:01:00] And the Arab parties, which are of course part of the left-wing bloc and the opposition
[00:01:04] with 14 seats, of course the Arab
[00:01:08] parties are not part of the bloc just like that.
[00:01:11] Before the elections, the last polls before the elections,
[00:01:14] most of them had no clear preference for one
[00:01:17] of the blocs, but they completely indicated
[00:01:20] the opposite trend.
[00:01:24] So how is it that everyone was wrong? These elections were also about
[00:01:27] the pollsters and they shattered the lie of Ashkar. This is not just
[00:01:30] Yom Kippur for most pollsters, there was a complete collapse of
[00:01:34] the consciousness industry that lasted for years in the studios.
[00:01:38] Hakeem definitions. Wait, when you poll
[00:01:41] 500, 600 thousand Israelis in a poll, there's
[00:01:45] no choice, you have to make assumptions to learn based on them what
[00:01:48] 10 million Israelis think. This
[00:01:52] of course doesn't explain how it turned out that in channels critical of the government, the polls
[00:01:55] showed a loss, in channels supporting it, the polls showed a majority.
[00:01:59] Yes. Maybe that's what's called the sampling error margin.
[00:02:03] Wait, did you see how much they insisted on
[00:02:06] the results? Look at the similarity between the last
[00:02:09] poll before the elections and the exit poll on election
[00:02:13] night itself. And here's the bloc map, according to this last
[00:02:16] poll before the elections, the opposition 54
[00:02:19] seats, the coalition, 50 seats, the Arab
[00:02:23] parties with 16 for the opposition bloc
[00:02:26] 53 seats, the coalition bloc.
[00:02:30] 50 seats, the Arab parties,
[00:02:33] 17 seats, this is how the bloc map looks,
[00:02:36] the coalition, 50 seats, the opposition, 56
[00:02:39] seats, and the full picture in the bloc
[00:02:42] picture, 52 for the Eisenkot bloc, 50 for the
[00:02:46] Netanyahu bloc, the Eisenkot bloc is the largest bloc also in the last poll,
[00:02:49] 52 seats, against which stands the
[00:02:52] Netanyahu bloc with 50 seats, and this is the
[00:02:56] bloc map, the Eisenkot bloc with 53
[00:03:00] seats, and the Netanyahu bloc with only 50
[00:03:03] seats. We checked for the last time, the right-wing bloc
[00:03:06] with 62 seats, the left-wing bloc with
[00:03:10] 44 seats. According to the exit poll of Channel
[00:03:13] 14 news, this is what the seats map looks like, the
[00:03:17] right-wing bloc with 60 seats, the left-wing bloc
[00:03:21] with 43. This is almost an open miracle, the poll
[00:03:24] that every channel presented to us for months long, certainly the last poll before
[00:03:28] the elections, tasted. Sometimes it was identical to the exit poll of
[00:03:32] that channel on election night. Yes, and this is especially
[00:03:36] interesting when you know the true results.
[00:03:40] Wait, I think we made a bit of a mess, so let's just say, this
[00:03:44] is what we're seeing right now, and it's certainly a different picture from what we saw, and this
[00:03:47] is the bloc map that's changing because of this update, it's
[00:03:51] a very different picture from what we saw in the polls, in the polls the Likud
[00:03:54] was much weaker. The true results of the elections after counting
[00:03:58] 100% of the votes. The Likud receives 27
[00:04:01] seats, finally and officially, Hendel and Zaliha,
[00:04:04] Ofer Winter do not pass the
[00:04:07] electoral threshold, the Joint List 11, Ra'am of Mansour
[00:04:11] Abbas, strengthened to eight seats.
[00:04:14] It turned out a bit different from what they showed us for months,
[00:04:18] or not, because there were those who saw in the event more of a Six-Day
[00:04:22] War victory than a Yom Kippur surprise. Pay attention to what
[00:04:25] happened on Channel
[00:04:28] 12, some pollster.
[00:05:00] For example, Yisrael Beiteinu, which is hovering
[00:05:03] around the electoral threshold with only four
[00:05:06] seats, which at the end of this evening
[00:05:08] maybe Lieberman after many years.
[00:05:13] In the true results, our Momo Filber will be much
[00:05:16] more correct. In the last poll before the elections on Channel 14, Lieberman
[00:05:20] was predicted five seats, in the exit poll on election
[00:05:23] night, four, and after
[00:05:26] midnight they increased it. Lieberman received on Channel
[00:05:29] 11 eight seats, on Channel 12 nine seats,
[00:05:32] and on Channel 13 seven seats. The right-wing bloc
[00:05:35] with 62
[00:05:38] seats. Avigdor Lieberman's party, Israel.
[00:05:42] Our party does not pass the electoral threshold, now we can
[00:05:46] say it's official, Shlomo, he doesn't pass, he doesn't even reach
[00:05:49] 3%. Lieberman with the number zero hovering above
[00:05:53] his head, this is truly an unprecedented
[00:05:56] event, when the true data started flowing, it was already official,
[00:05:59] Lieberman doesn't pass, unprecedented and also
[00:06:03] didn't happen, yes, we found out later tonight, regarding Lieberman, he
[00:06:07] passes the electoral threshold, it's not
[00:06:09] the 7-8 they gave him on the other channels, but he will probably be at least
[00:06:13] four, maybe five, we are faithful to the numbers,
[00:06:17] faithful to accuracy, so right now we're returning it to
[00:06:20] 60-60, faithful to accuracy,
[00:06:24] 60-60, no,
[00:06:27] 67-53 and Lieberman completely
[00:06:30] seven as others gave, or as Channel
[00:06:33] 14 calls it, your great victory
[00:06:36] in the whole exit poll story when the other channels essentially
[00:06:40] straightened up, reduced and ego
[00:06:43] and that, uh, I don't know, until this moment none of them
[00:06:47] even wrote not even a small
[00:06:50] apology, this guy is worth a Netflix series, this whole doctrine
[00:06:54] that I actually developed, I wrote about
[00:06:56] the book, run to buy, is there
[00:07:00] any instruction there to give preference first to your former partner
[00:07:03] who was more right than you? Sorry, in the last
[00:07:07] mandate polls published before the elections, the one who deviated the least from the number
[00:07:11] of mandates received by each party was pollster
[00:07:14] Tzuriel Sharon on Channel i24, Channel
[00:07:17] 15. He is a former partner of Shlomo Filber,
[00:07:21] who immediately after him in terms of achievement
[00:07:23] from the true results, Maagar Mochot Institute
[00:07:27] on Channel 16. Now this is very misleading,
[00:07:31] in the broader picture, which is perhaps even more important, of bloc
[00:07:34] distribution, who is most accurate? Here it
[00:07:37] gets complicated. Filber predicted that Netanyahu's bloc
[00:07:41] would win 62 seats, compared
[00:07:44] to 53 it actually received. That is, in predicting the relative
[00:07:47] strength between Netanyahu's supporters and opponents in the next Knesset, Channel
[00:07:51] 14 was correct in identifying the trend, but was
[00:07:54] the furthest in numbers. The closest
[00:07:57] in the bloc picture was precisely that Channel 16, the Maagar Mochot Institute, which predicted
[00:08:01] 52 seats for Netanyahu's
[00:08:04] bloc and 68
[00:08:06] for his opponents. Yes, on the other hand, third,
[00:08:10] maybe already fourth, according to what parameters we determine
[00:08:14] that a poll was accurate. Channels 14
[00:08:17] and i24 were the only ones who told us
[00:08:20] in advance that the Likud would be the largest
[00:08:24] party by a margin. And also the only ones who bet that the
[00:08:27] Eisenkot bloc would get less than 50 seats, less than the
[00:08:30] Netanyahu bloc, excluding the Arabs.
[00:08:33] Yes, I said, they bet, because I'm
[00:08:37] going to quote now precisely the one who impressed? The pollster who impressed
[00:08:40] Tzuriel Sharon who explained. In Haaretz. Polls are
[00:08:44] supposedly an event for statisticians, but
[00:08:47] when it comes to mandate polls, which are perhaps the most complex
[00:08:50] in Israel, it's already a sociological event.
[00:08:54] It requires understanding social codes, the DNA
[00:08:57] of your target audience, how the motivation
[00:09:00] to vote works, things related to identities, to very
[00:09:04] emotional matters and to gut feelings. He said
[00:09:08] gut feelings. Okay, conclusions
[00:09:11] for next time. Everything we analyzed based on the polls over
[00:09:15] time doesn't ultimately align with reality. The essential
[00:09:19] question is, will it change anything? If there
[00:09:22] were no polls, it would be very difficult to fill the time we
[00:09:26] filled in recent months,
[00:09:29] the public also demands it, and the public also goes to fortune
[00:09:32] tellers and coffee readers.
[00:09:35] Right, maybe it's time we treat them
[00:09:39] accordingly.
[00:09:44] What do you do when you see a video that seems far-fetched? Do you just
[00:09:48] move on? No! We saw that small
[00:09:51] fakes can cause great damage right now
[00:09:54] in the elections. We'll see more in a moment, but first let's remember that if
[00:09:58] you come across a dramatic,
[00:10:00] exaggerated picture or video, be suspicious, be on the
[00:10:04] other side, and send it to our fake machine, 050
[00:10:07] 9395501,
[00:10:10] and there it will be checked if it was made.
[00:10:12] with artificial intelligence. For example, this picture,
[00:10:16] which Prime Minister Netanyahu shared on election day, shows a long
[00:10:20] line of voters at a polling station in Sakhnin. This picture was shared
[00:10:23] on many accounts. And as the fake machine found,
[00:10:27] it was made using artificial intelligence, it's a fake. It's a shame the Prime Minister
[00:10:31] didn't send it to the fake machine first.
[00:10:34] Well, even afterwards he doesn't send it, and after we checked, the
[00:10:38] post is still up on his page. Also on election
[00:10:41] day, a popular Telegram page called Abu Ali Express with a post
[00:10:44] that reached over 100,000 views. The Joint
[00:10:47] List, an Israeli minister confiscated all polling stations in the settlement of Hararah
[00:10:51] in the Negev, preventing further voting. Wow,
[00:10:54] fake. The police did not confiscate the polling stations, they did
[00:10:58] us a favor, heavy rains that fell caused a power outage
[00:11:01] for public safety and until emergency lighting, prepared in advance, was activated,
[00:11:05] voters were asked to wait less than 10 minutes. Despite the difficult conditions,
[00:11:09] voting continued as usual. Good, the Joint
[00:11:12] List also told us, no statement was issued on their behalf, it's a shame
[00:11:15] that the fake machine doesn't check people
[00:11:18] talking yet, but that's in the future, we're on it. One
[00:11:22] more.
[00:11:26] The day after the elections, Prime Minister Netanyahu shared this video
[00:11:30] He wrote last night that at an event of
[00:11:34] the Joint List, they sang "Biladi, Biladi" from the official Palestinian
[00:11:38] anthem, and he quotes, "Palestine is my home,
[00:11:41] the land of my victory, Palestine is my revenge, and the land of steadfast
[00:11:45] endurance." These are the words of the Palestinian anthem, and this
[00:11:49] is what they sing. No, no, that's
[00:11:52] what they sing. Ahmed Tibi was the first to do it from the other
[00:11:56] side. This "Biladi, Biladi" that they sang in the Joint List
[00:11:59] is a song from Hadash. Did someone not translate
[00:12:02] it correctly for you? Correct, someone didn't translate
[00:12:05] it correctly, I wonder how that happened. We checked with
[00:12:09] our friend, from the other side in Arabic, we won't bother you with all the details, but
[00:12:12] Palestine is my home, it is my revenge and so on, what Netanyahu quoted was not
[00:12:16] said there. These are some of the words in the Palestinian
[00:12:19] anthem, but the members of the Joint List actually sang the anthem of
[00:12:23] the Hadash movement, as
[00:12:25] the fake machine says.
[00:12:29] Send a file, video or image to our WhatsApp number
[00:12:32] 050 9395501.
[00:12:35] This barcode will quickly take you to the number in the chat.
[00:12:39] The engine will answer if the video or important image has indeed been treated
[00:12:43] with artificial intelligence. Continue to check with all
[00:12:47] the means at your disposal before spreading it.
[00:12:50] That's it, these are the gaps. This time they are available online. Always
[00:12:53] watch, share. Spread it, what's so complicated
[00:12:57] about that?
[00:13:00] A few weeks ago, journalist Shlomi Eldar publishes the
[00:13:04] biggest scoop of his life. On the very
[00:13:07] same day, he discovers that the love of his life
[00:13:11] is over. A rare conversation, in its honesty, about
[00:13:15] love and betrayal, about truth and the poison
[00:13:18] machine, about the warning given by the President of the Emirates
[00:13:21] to Netanyahu, and also about how to get up
[00:13:25] from the lowest point, and you forgot that on the way there was also
[00:13:28] cancer, but it ended with good news. Saturday night
[00:13:32] at a meeting.
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