N1BOS — broadcast
20260807 080000 UTC
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[00:10:28] We will return soon to current topics and guests. The sponsor
[00:10:32] of the show is the General Hospital Medicana
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[00:12:01] and joint pain. That is why it is very important to
[00:12:04] replenish it. Why is it especially important in warmer periods?
[00:12:08] Do you have a recommendation for a specific collagen? During warmer
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[00:14:41] Aspirin Protect 100 mg is recommended for people at
[00:14:45] high and very high risk of cardiovascular diseases to
[00:14:49] reduce the risk of acute heart attack and stroke. Before
[00:14:52] use, carefully read the package leaflet for information on indications.
[00:14:57] or pharmacist.
[00:14:58] Bayer.
[00:15:01] We return to the show Novi dan. The sponsor of the show is the General
[00:15:05] Hospital Medicana Sarajevo.
[00:15:18] Welcome back. We know that Europe has been facing
[00:15:21] extreme heat for days again. We know that neither Bosnia and Herzegovina
[00:15:25] nor the region are any exception. Short-term
[00:15:28] refreshments do not mean the end of summer. New hot
[00:15:32] days are ahead, high temperatures, and with the drought, an increasing risk
[00:15:36] of fires. It's no longer a question of how many degrees it will be tomorrow or
[00:15:39] in the coming days, but how such
[00:15:42] extremes are changing our cities, agriculture,
[00:15:45] and daily life. What kind of summer continuation awaits us, what can
[00:15:49] we expect in autumn, and are we threatened by heavy rains and
[00:15:52] floods after the dry period? We will talk about all this in the next few minutes
[00:15:56] with meteorologist Nedim Sladić. Nedim, good
[00:15:59] morning and thank you very much for your time. Good morning, Melika, to you and your
[00:16:03] viewers. Our
[00:16:06] viewers heard a brief weather forecast at the very beginning
[00:16:10] of the show. We know that a slight cooling and
[00:16:14] refreshment awaits us this weekend, but after
[00:16:17] that we don't know much except that the heatwave
[00:16:20] is returning again. Does that mean that we will very
[00:16:23] soon have temperatures above
[00:16:27] 40° across Bosnia and
[00:16:29] Herzegovina?
[00:16:32] After a passing, rather mild
[00:16:35] cooling, in the next two days, air temperatures
[00:16:39] will rise again from Sunday. So, in most areas of our
[00:16:43] country, and primarily in Herzegovina, daily
[00:16:47] air temperature values will again be around or slightly above
[00:16:50] 40°C, while in the area of Bosnia, these
[00:16:54] values are again higher, closer to
[00:16:57] 35 than below it. So,
[00:17:00] a continuation of very hot days,
[00:17:04] especially from Sunday, should be expected in most of
[00:17:07] our country, especially next week when
[00:17:11] we expect a further inflow of hot air
[00:17:14] masses from the north of the African continent towards our
[00:17:17] areas. Mhm,
[00:17:19] you spoke about this situation that awaits us in the coming
[00:17:23] days in the same thoughtful way you always do, in terms of
[00:17:26] warnings and perhaps
[00:17:30] preventive preparations. Here I am primarily talking about the fires
[00:17:34] that threaten us. Even as we speak, the situation in Konjic
[00:17:37] is still not completely stable. Several different fires have
[00:17:41] broken out along the area where the train passes. The explanation is that
[00:17:44] it was actually the friction or the passage of the train
[00:17:48] that may have caused the fire, which shows how much infrastructure
[00:17:52] is threatened in a way, and certainly
[00:17:55] nature, and how it reacts in such circumstances under such
[00:17:58] temperatures together. How seriously
[00:18:01] do we need to take this situation in terms of fires in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and what can
[00:18:05] we expect in the coming
[00:18:10] days? Definitely very seriously, considering that
[00:18:14] the data from the European Commission,
[00:18:17] or rather the material coming from
[00:18:21] Copernicus, indicates that in the period between
[00:18:25] August 6th and 12th, 2026,
[00:18:28] Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as most of the Balkan
[00:18:32] Peninsula, is located in an extremely high
[00:18:35] risk of forest fires, which suggests
[00:18:39] that we, as a nation,
[00:18:42] must pay a little more attention to how we treat
[00:18:47] that the lack of precipitation over the past
[00:18:50] ten days is now more than evident. The soil
[00:18:54] in most of the country has dried out further, and even where there
[00:18:58] were short showers in the past
[00:19:01] period, the soil is now losing its reserves, which we see
[00:19:04] most in the relative humidity, that
[00:19:08] is, its behavior, so not even at night do we go above
[00:19:10] 60%, which actually tells us how much the air
[00:19:14] has dried out at ground level, not to mention in this whole
[00:19:18] story that now whatever you throw into the environment,
[00:19:22] which we, of course, do not recommend at any
[00:19:25] price, will simply ignite by itself,
[00:19:28] a piece of glass in interaction with the sun, or a piece,
[00:19:32] that is, a cigarette butt, all that
[00:19:36] is very easily flammable." This is now truly,
[00:19:39] truly going to ignite in a very short period of time, and then unfortunately
[00:19:43] problems arise when a fire occurs, that the fire
[00:19:47] creates its own weather conditions
[00:19:50] that are often so unpredictable because
[00:19:54] you simply don't have a mechanism to
[00:19:56] precisely predict them, mhm.
[00:20:00] This is precisely what numerous firefighters witnessed,
[00:20:03] from the region who participated in extinguishing fires in Spain and
[00:20:07] France, they say that it's actually a different situation now,
[00:20:11] we saw that it burned for weeks without being able to be brought
[00:20:14] under control, that now it's a completely
[00:20:17] different terrain that
[00:20:21] is actually caused by climate change, that the problem
[00:20:24] in Spain and France was that heatwaves rapidly alternated
[00:20:28] with everything that happened in between them, which
[00:20:32] made the soil more conducive to the spread of fires. They talked
[00:20:35] a lot about the so-called fire tornado. It seems
[00:20:39] to me that we haven't heard so much about these
[00:20:43] terms in recent years, despite numerous problems. Can
[00:20:46] such fire infernos happen due to
[00:20:50] the alternation of heatwaves in Bosnia and Herzegovina
[00:20:53] in this region, and what is actually
[00:20:56] happening there?
[00:20:58] First, I will explain what is actually meant by
[00:21:02] the term Pyrocumulonimbus, which is actually
[00:21:06] a vertical cloud that forms by the rising
[00:21:09] due to buoyancy of large amounts
[00:21:12] of superheated air in relation to the surroundings. Given
[00:21:15] that within a fire, when you have the
[00:21:20] release of energy, you must release that thermal
[00:21:23] energy, its excess into the free atmosphere. With
[00:21:26] it, you release certain amounts of aerosols, that is,
[00:21:30] small fine particles which later, by cooling and
[00:21:34] spreading in the atmosphere, or rather with the process
[00:21:37] of condensation, lead to the vertical development
[00:21:40] of clouds, from which you can then get
[00:21:44] exactly a tower, or a towering
[00:21:47] cloud that can go up to 10, 15 kilometers in
[00:21:50] height, that is, to the level of the troposphere, or
[00:21:54] tropopause, not to mention then
[00:21:57] precisely because the ground is so
[00:21:59] hot and you don't have too much moisture,
[00:22:03] you then actually get material to
[00:22:06] have a cloud from which the phenomenon
[00:22:09] of so-called dry lightning comes, that is, from
[00:22:12] a cloud in which rain falls, it encounters a layer
[00:22:16] of dry air, precipitation evaporates, and
[00:22:20] actually as a process of that whole story in an unstable
[00:22:24] atmosphere above our areas, then
[00:22:27] you can definitely witness such circumstances and actually
[00:22:30] such, such phenomena can further,
[00:22:34] unfortunately, worsen the whole situation. We fortunately
[00:22:37] did not have such situations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, primarily because
[00:22:41] fires usually occurred when the atmosphere was
[00:22:44] stable, and the buoyancy was low enough
[00:22:47] not to allow
[00:22:50] air particles to rise too much into the atmosphere, and thus
[00:22:54] everything remained in the ground layer
[00:22:57] of the atmosphere, so we did not witness that. The French
[00:23:01] on the other hand did, as did most countries of Western
[00:23:04] Europe, partly because we had a somewhat more
[00:23:08] unstable atmosphere after the heatwaves,
[00:23:10] but again, in that whole story,
[00:23:14] dry lightning did its part, and as for heatwaves,
[00:23:18] generally they were
[00:23:21] just one in a series of numerous factors
[00:23:24] that actually determined the fate
[00:23:27] of this entire summer. Namely,
[00:23:30] the previously pronounced period of drought,
[00:23:33] or lack of precipitation, which began in the countries
[00:23:37] of Western and Northwestern Europe already in mid-April and
[00:23:41] continued through these next three to four
[00:23:44] months, only
[00:23:47] fire. Then came extremely high
[00:23:51] air temperatures, prolonged maintenance of a high
[00:23:54] air pressure field over an area that further
[00:23:57] contributed to the air
[00:24:00] compressing into lower layers of the atmosphere, drying
[00:24:04] out to the point where you no longer have anything to evaporate from the surface, and now any
[00:24:08] attempt to get precipitation as part of
[00:24:11] some smaller weakened
[00:24:14] frontal disturbances actually brings you
[00:24:18] nothing but small
[00:24:20] infusions that simply can last a few hours
[00:24:23] and they very quickly evaporate again. In other
[00:24:26] words, you can never feed that thirsty
[00:24:30] land, land that truly yearns
[00:24:34] for rainwater, since you have many parts now
[00:24:38] of Great Britain, the Netherlands, and
[00:24:41] France, which at the very least resemble
[00:24:45] a desert area in North Africa, because you simply
[00:24:49] no longer have anything to evaporate from that soil.
[00:24:53] In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the situation is still somewhat
[00:24:56] different, there is greenery, but we see
[00:24:59] it rapidly disappearing, considering
[00:25:02] that very high air temperatures have been
[00:25:06] present for days, precipitation, we have had almost none
[00:25:09] for the last 10 days, so if we haven't had precipitation for 15 days,
[00:25:13] we are talking about meteorological drought, not to mention that
[00:25:17] hydrological drought does not only come from precipitation that you get in the form
[00:25:20] of local showers, you will get something
[00:25:23] through local showers, but the
[00:25:26] fact is that we did not have sufficient amounts of
[00:25:29] snow cover in the mountains last winter,
[00:25:32] except for the January episode, which would primarily
[00:25:36] replenish groundwater reserves,
[00:25:39] and one winter after five or six others in which you don't
[00:25:43] have very large amounts of snow cannot
[00:25:46] simply replenish those shortages that you had in the
[00:25:49] previous period. So, it's no wonder
[00:25:53] that we are witnessing, unfortunately, scenarios of dried-up rivers
[00:25:56] in central Europe, but also
[00:26:00] increasingly in southeastern Europe, including the Balkan
[00:26:03] Peninsula. Mhm, and what would you recommend
[00:26:06] to the authorities in such a period as it is, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, regardless
[00:26:10] of the fact that the situation is a bit milder compared to the rest of Europe?
[00:26:14] What should be done? Just a few
[00:26:17] dana, are you one of the interesting examples that can be
[00:26:20] important, which is to pay attention to cleaning riverbeds,
[00:26:24] which is now a little simpler when water levels
[00:26:27] are somewhat lower, it can certainly prevent a lot
[00:26:31] of bad things that threaten us very soon, that is in
[00:26:34] autumn, the first lesson when
[00:26:38] I went to attend a flood preparedness
[00:26:42] course, so in my master's studies it was
[00:26:45] how to notice in time that
[00:26:48] you can simply use drought in the best possible way and
[00:26:52] prepare for the upcoming
[00:26:55] inevitably wetter period that will follow after the drought, so that is not
[00:26:59] anything new, we all know that after drought come
[00:27:03] periods with larger amounts of precipitation and what we can
[00:27:06] do is to clean our riverbeds as much
[00:27:09] as possible from any rubbish, primarily
[00:27:13] bulky waste, to expand their volume, so that
[00:27:17] we are simply somewhat more prepared
[00:27:21] so that our drains can receive a larger amount of rainwater in
[00:27:24] a very short period of time, because we
[00:27:27] are now, we are now facing
[00:27:31] very intense downpours, especially
[00:27:34] when we have a somewhat more unstable atmosphere, and
[00:27:37] thus our infrastructure, unfortunately, is not quite
[00:27:41] adjusted to be able to receive such a large amount of rainwater, now
[00:27:45] I'm not only talking about the area of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the whole
[00:27:48] of Europe has a chronic problem that simply our
[00:27:52] drainage systems cannot receive a greater intensity
[00:27:55] of precipitation than 8 mm per hour, i.e. 8
[00:27:58] l/m2 per hour, and now you have
[00:28:01] downpours that are five, six and more
[00:28:04] times greater intensity in a very short
[00:28:08] time interval, which is more like some tropical
[00:28:11] monsoon downpour, not some downpour that
[00:28:15] you see in temperate geographical latitudes, so that is
[00:28:18] the best indicator of how much we need to take care of drains,
[00:28:22] clean canals, clean our
[00:28:25] riverbeds, especially from all impurities
[00:28:29] that have accumulated, not only
[00:28:31] decades there, so
[00:28:35] if we do something, at least on that issue,
[00:28:38] then we can expect that the consequences, they won't
[00:28:41] be completely prevented, but
[00:28:44] they will, but they will at least be mitigated,
[00:28:48] yes, we will talk a little later about what extremes could
[00:28:51] await us later in the autumn, but I would
[00:28:55] like to first look at this end of August, maybe
[00:28:59] beginning of September, after
[00:29:01] that heat wave leaves us, i.e. the high
[00:29:04] temperatures that are expected at least until, as I understood,
[00:29:08] August 15th-20th, approximately, what comes next
[00:29:11] before real autumn?
[00:29:15] if we look at the short-term and medium-term
[00:29:18] material, the continuation of extremely high
[00:29:21] air temperatures, i.e. air temperatures that are
[00:29:25] higher than usual for the eighth month, would be the
[00:29:29] dominant topic for the next 10 to 15 days.
[00:29:32] So, we don't have any, any
[00:29:35] indications for a more serious drop in air
[00:29:39] temperature, but as we go towards the end of August,
[00:29:43] definitely on the forecast materials, a
[00:29:46] signal for somewhat larger amounts of precipitation is slowly appearing,
[00:29:50] which could more or less
[00:29:53] improve the hydrological situation.
[00:29:55] However, I still cannot accept it
[00:29:59] as it is, I need a more reliable signal. "This is
[00:30:03] just an indicator, and we still don't have reliable
[00:30:06] signals as to whether it will actually
[00:30:09] materialize, because sometimes you simply cannot
[00:30:12] trust the analysis of several models based
[00:30:16] on which you see completely different parameters,
[00:30:19] then you have actually, let's say, a
[00:30:23] conflict in that whole story, then you have to weigh what is actually to
[00:30:26] be expected, what is most likely, what is medium, what
[00:30:30] is the least likely scenario." For
[00:30:33] now, what we can conclude is that at least until
[00:30:36] August 18th or 19th, we have no indications
[00:30:40] of a drought easing, as we go into
[00:30:43] September, what the long-term forecasts now
[00:30:47] indicate is that we are not losing
[00:30:50] the signal for heat, its frequency would decrease, of course,
[00:30:54] heat waves would decrease
[00:30:57] and that is quite natural.