N1BOS — broadcast
20261004 163000 UTC
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[00:00:00] will continue like this as long as this
[00:00:02] war with Iran continues,
[00:00:06] that one is a crucial war with
[00:00:08] Iran. To some extent, the situation in Ukraine
[00:00:12] is important, especially when it comes to derivatives, but as long as
[00:00:15] this war in Iran continues, as long as the uncertainty
[00:00:19] is not resolved, we will continue
[00:00:23] not only with high prices but also highly volatile and variable
[00:00:26] prices. But regardless of
[00:00:30] that, how the
[00:00:32] armed conflict in the Middle
[00:00:36] East will end, many
[00:00:39] analysts claim that the global oil market will never be
[00:00:43] the same after that war.
[00:00:46] Uh, how do you assess the market's
[00:00:49] ability to cope with the new
[00:00:53] circumstances, including the closure of the
[00:00:56] Strait of Hormuz and everything that
[00:01:00] resulted from it? We see that
[00:01:03] markets are turning to alternative
[00:01:06] routes, land transport
[00:01:09] of oil from Saudi Arabia, the Emirates,
[00:01:13] Iraq, Turkey. However, in terms of quantity,
[00:01:16] when we talk about transport, it is not even close to the
[00:01:20] 20 million barrels per day, approximately
[00:01:24] how much was the daily traffic through
[00:01:27] the Strait of Hormuz, i.e., by ships.
[00:01:31] That's an excellent observation, uh, namely, as
[00:01:34] there is an old saying, the best
[00:01:37] solution for high prices are high prices,
[00:01:41] and the so-called demand destruction, meaning the destruction
[00:01:44] of demand through prices, and that is exactly what is happening now,
[00:01:48] namely, in most countries, for example, take
[00:01:51] Europe, uh, we don't have, there are no shortages,
[00:01:55] which is very good, because as long as the state does not interfere with
[00:01:58] prices, there will be no shortages, namely,
[00:02:01] all those who use oil, of course,
[00:02:05] derivatives, gasoline, diesel, who don't
[00:02:08] care that much about driving cars, they stop driving
[00:02:12] cars, and the amount of derivatives remains for
[00:02:15] those who really need to
[00:02:18] use them, uh, especially when it comes to industry, that is very
[00:02:22] difficult, of course, because prices are extremely high and
[00:02:24] there, my, my logic is that
[00:02:28] the state should never interfere when it comes to prices, and
[00:02:31] why? Because the market works very well, look
[00:02:34] now, we have had so many problems in the Middle
[00:02:37] East, and we had an incredible loss,
[00:02:41] as you said at the beginning, immediately some
[00:02:43] 20% of all - all
[00:02:47] oil exports from the Middle East,
[00:02:50] and you still don't have
[00:02:53] queues at gas stations, we have enough gasoline, we have enough diesel,
[00:02:56] so markets are working, we should leave markets to work as they should
[00:03:00] and from the side of politics, we should help
[00:03:03] those who are struggling with
[00:03:06] these high prices, namely those who
[00:03:10] don't have those who have to control whether markets
[00:03:13] are exaggerating with pricing?
[00:03:16] No, no, absolutely not, I
[00:03:19] think, even actually in the last
[00:03:23] few months, there has been a lot of criticism that
[00:03:26] markets are not reflecting the gravity of the situation.
[00:03:30] because everyone expected that if the Middle East and
[00:03:33] Hormuz were closed, oil prices would go to $200 per
[00:03:37] barrel, let's just remember Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and their
[00:03:40] somehow uh forecasts or
[00:03:44] predictions, uh that didn't happen, it didn't happen
[00:03:48] precisely because you said, markets are working now
[00:03:51] you have alternative alternative routes, you have the so-called
[00:03:54] East West pipeline in Saudi Arabia which can
[00:03:58] which from some two million barrels increased the flow
[00:04:02] to almost 6 million barrels you have
[00:04:06] a bypass route pipeline bypass
[00:04:09] around Hormuz which Abu Dhabi uses
[00:04:12] which goes over a million to a million and a half barrels and they
[00:04:16] have even increased it to 1.7 million barrels, so all these
[00:04:20] quantities have actually managed
[00:04:22] to somewhat
[00:04:24] alleviate the problems of the entire market,
[00:04:28] but all these alternatives you... spoke about trucks that
[00:04:32] go, they cannot operate, they cannot exist, they cannot be
[00:04:35] economical if there is some price control and
[00:04:39] you say no, prices cannot go beyond this, then all that
[00:04:42] would stop, then we would really have
[00:04:45] shortages
[00:04:47] um mm of derivatives, what we are witnessing at this
[00:04:51] moment, here oil and natural gas are the two main fuels that
[00:04:54] power the world, the United States is
[00:04:58] positioning itself. solidifying its
[00:05:01] position as a key supplier of natural
[00:05:04] liquefied natural gas, Qatar
[00:05:07] is solidifying its
[00:05:10] Chinese panels, put them on position, right as a stable partner. when concluding
[00:05:14] contracts, while, for example, China controls over
[00:05:18] 80% of global production of equipment for renewable
[00:05:21] energy, I don't know, wind turbines, solar panels,
[00:05:24] batteries for energy storage, is the
[00:05:27] world changing in this context in terms of the positioning
[00:05:30] of great powers in the energy sector, are we on the way to replace
[00:05:34] one dependence
[00:05:36] in terms of oil from the Middle East and Russia
[00:05:40] with another dependence? From
[00:05:42] Chinese technology American liquefied
[00:05:46] natural gas, well, you said it well, actually, one thing that I
[00:05:50] always say, which is very important and I
[00:05:53] think at the beginning when you asked me, I actually didn't answer your
[00:05:57] question well, you said whether the oil market will
[00:06:00] ever be the same again, that is a wonderful question and it will
[00:06:04] never be the same again, it is very important to say
[00:06:07] that in the 70s, when we had the so-called first oil
[00:06:11] shock, although the first oil shock was actually in 1861,
[00:06:14] but that's not important now, uh,
[00:06:17] that oil shock was then, we had no choice, you had
[00:06:21] absolutely no choice, if you don't have
[00:06:24] gasoline, uh, you don't have any other
[00:06:27] alternative, today we have alternatives,
[00:06:30] electric cars are here, electric
[00:06:33] cars are relatively cheap and they are
[00:06:36] here to serve as some kind of alternative and China
[00:06:40] has made that alternative incredible. I, I will
[00:06:43] turn your question upside
[00:06:45] down a little, for example, China regularly
[00:06:48] imported over 10 million barrels of oil.
[00:06:52] In such a situation, China should have
[00:06:56] a lot of problems, but China does not have so many problems, well, first
[00:07:00] they had some strategic, huge strategic
[00:07:03] reserves, but second, China is intentionally politically
[00:07:07] and and
[00:07:10] economically turning towards. energy
[00:07:13] as a source, a source and there's no reason why we
[00:07:17] shouldn't do the same, we need to heavily
[00:07:19] subsidize the transition to electric conditions,
[00:07:23] especially for our conditions in Bosnia, where we are totally dependent on
[00:07:26] everyone, what you said about geopolitical
[00:07:30] circumstances, now we are turning to China for, I don't know, electric panels, for
[00:07:34] I don't know, my panels are made in in Spain,
[00:07:37] the panels in my house, therefore it's not all that, but if the Chinese
[00:07:41] sell cheap panels. fantastic, let's
[00:07:44] buy them, the difference between new
[00:07:47] um, new so-called clean
[00:07:50] energy and old, dirty energy is that when you
[00:07:54] buy panels from China, yes, you will probably buy panels from
[00:07:57] China, I don't know, inverters and batteries, but
[00:08:00] you will buy them once, that's it, then you have solved all
[00:08:04] problems, and for oil and for gas
[00:08:07] you buy every time, every time you have to
[00:08:11] refill oil, refill gas, therefore, there is a huge difference and that's
[00:08:15] why I am a big proponent of the transition to
[00:08:19] new, new types of energy, to clean types of energy,
[00:08:22] especially solar energy which is the absolute
[00:08:26] future.
[00:08:28] We've been talking about big economies and
[00:08:32] big powers fighting their energy wars all this time, but
[00:08:36] what is the position of small countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina
[00:08:39] and the countries in the region?
[00:08:42] Um, how do they manage with their
[00:08:45] modest mandatory oil reserves,
[00:08:49] complete dependence on imports of derivatives through
[00:08:52] neighboring countries, and
[00:08:55] do you have any advice for domestic decision-makers at this
[00:08:58] moment? Very difficult, very
[00:09:01] difficult, um, and you see the situation in Bosnia yourself,
[00:09:05] you see the prices at gas stations, I was in Sarajevo two
[00:09:08] weeks ago, and for our people, those are the same prices as
[00:09:12] in England, but the salaries are completely different, of course,
[00:09:15] however, there is no cure for that because we import all the oil, we import
[00:09:19] all the gas, the situation is very difficult here in Bosnia,
[00:09:23] especially, I am not an expert on our energy in Bosnia, however,
[00:09:26] we have a very difficult political situation where oil,
[00:09:29] where where gas, which is very important, practically comes from
[00:09:33] Russia, and the Croats are
[00:09:36] blocking us for an alternative import of gas
[00:09:39] across across the river, across across the Adriatic. And as
[00:09:43] long as that alternative is not resolved, that's a problem. So,
[00:09:47] the situation is difficult, we know that, what are the long-term
[00:09:50] solutions, we have very good examples,
[00:09:54] Pakistan, Pakistan has in the last
[00:09:57] two years invested in those cheap Chinese
[00:10:00] panels, they have built 17 uh
[00:10:04] gigawatts of solar energy, this
[00:10:08] solar energy that is practically not even tracked at every
[00:10:11] residential level, or mm also
[00:10:15] many smaller shops, stores, smaller manufacturers,
[00:10:18] they simply bought cheap
[00:10:22] houses, put them on shops. "Here and
[00:10:26] there, whoever could afford to buy batteries
[00:10:29] solved a lot of problems because Pakistan
[00:10:32] was extremely dependent on gas, however,
[00:10:36] this time they have reduced that problem further, Pakistan depends on
[00:10:40] gas, but they have drastically reduced that problem, so we should
[00:10:44] um look at such examples, of course, here in
[00:10:47] Sarajevo, for example, the climate is not ideal, for example, for
[00:10:51] solar energy, however, I have in
[00:10:54] England, too..." So the climate is not ideal for solar energy
[00:10:58] we mostly, mostly about 70,
[00:11:01] 80% of all consumption in my house
[00:11:05] comes from solar energy and from batteries, therefore it can be
[00:11:08] solved and
[00:11:11] we have to go for electrification as much as possible, especially here
[00:11:15] the prices are
[00:11:18] relatively low for electricity, I actually
[00:11:21] tried to buy a so-called heating pump in Sarajevo, what is it called. heat
[00:11:25] pump, and
[00:11:27] I had two options, let me tell you a practical example, to put a
[00:11:31] boiler in the apartment
[00:11:34] and um, to put a heat pump, the quotes, I took several, for
[00:11:38] the boiler they were around 3, 3,200
[00:11:41] marks, the quote for the heat pump was
[00:11:44] 21,000 marks, so we
[00:11:47] should go for that, but we still haven't solved
[00:11:50] the problems, so we don't have enough
[00:11:53] installers and the state should somehow
[00:11:56] step in to subsidize heat pumps, because we are solving a problem,
[00:12:00] we are moving away from gas, it is strategically, our, we are in
[00:12:03] a catastrophic situation, we get all our gas from Russia, so we
[00:12:07] have to run away from gas, if it really happens in
[00:12:11] 2027 that the European Union really completely
[00:12:14] cuts off gas supply from Russia, in Bosnia and
[00:12:17] Herzegovina, the Southern Gas Interconnection project, which should
[00:12:21] ensure diversification
[00:12:24] of uh transport or those supply routes of natural
[00:12:28] gas, is still
[00:12:31] a project that is being talked about but there is no
[00:12:34] realization of it,
[00:12:37] in what situation will Bosnia and Herzegovina be then in
[00:12:40] 2027 and what do you
[00:12:43] think about the Southern Gas Interconnection project
[00:12:46] and when it comes to the price of gas, later for the end
[00:12:50] consumer.
[00:12:52] First, that interconnection from the south. must absolutely be
[00:12:56] resolved as soon as possible, because we must have an alternative
[00:13:00] for the reasons you mentioned, as for Russian
[00:13:03] gas, we will see and and and regardless
[00:13:07] of the European Union, uh
[00:13:10] gas comes to us via Serbia,
[00:13:13] it could mainly continue to
[00:13:16] come, it comes via Hungary,
[00:13:19] Serbia, there is a possibility that the arrival of gas
[00:13:23] will continue, it is in everyone's interest, we
[00:13:27] are a small country in this difficult geopolitical
[00:13:30] situation, I think we should not deal too much with politics, but
[00:13:34] preserve what we must, so that gas is extremely
[00:13:38] important for us, because even if that southern interconnection is resolved,
[00:13:41] it will take at least two or three years to build
[00:13:45] and and when the decision is made, therefore
[00:13:48] uh the situation is difficult in
[00:13:51] the meantime everyone, that is
[00:13:54] from a political point of view, I would look to
[00:13:58] allow duty-free imports for cheap
[00:14:02] Chinese panels, for example, for cheap Chinese batteries
[00:14:06] and and the transition to domestic
[00:14:09] types of energy, meaning wind wind and
[00:14:12] and solar energy, of course, that will not
[00:14:16] be an absolute solution, but it is a short-term solution,
[00:14:20] it is also a long-term solution, because once you
[00:14:23] buy it, yes. It's about slightly larger investments, but then
[00:14:27] you have no further costs, no further import costs,
[00:14:30] like this, and like this, given the geopolitical
[00:14:34] situation, oil, oil and and and
[00:14:38] natural gas, or LPG,
[00:14:41] LNG,
[00:14:43] have, have very big strategic problems, they
[00:14:47] have become more of a problem than a solution for
[00:14:56] The International Air Transport Association has halved
[00:15:00] the forecast for global airline profit for
[00:15:03] 2026, from the initial
[00:15:06] 41 billion to 23 billion dollars,
[00:15:10] due to the current geopolitical situation. Against
[00:15:13] such pessimistic forecasts, Air France decided to fight with
[00:15:17] luxury. With portions of caviar and
[00:15:21] champagne, Air France launches the motto that luxury pays off.
[00:15:25] Such a business move helped Air France to deal with
[00:15:28] the consequences of the oil crisis.
[00:15:31] We noticed that there is greater resilience to price
[00:15:35] increases in business class than in
[00:15:37] economy class, we have significantly raised prices in premium cabins and so
[00:15:41] far we are doing better than we expected. Simply
[00:15:44] put, the rich are getting richer and more willing to
[00:15:47] pay more for comfort. And the French capital itself, which
[00:15:51] attracts millions of visitors, is synonymous with luxury and
[00:15:54] refinement. France has long
[00:15:58] been an attractive destination. All luxury brands are located
[00:16:01] in Paris. We have more Michelin-starred restaurants
[00:16:05] than any other country in the world,
[00:16:08] Air France was not immune to the consequences of the US-Iran
[00:16:12] war and rising jet fuel prices, however,
[00:16:15] instead of reducing the level of service, the company intensified
[00:16:18] efforts to build a brand that is associated with luxury. According to
[00:16:22] data shared by the company, revenue from first class
[00:16:26] and premium segments increased by
[00:16:29] 11%.
[00:16:32] That's all for Forbes magazine for this week, for other news from the world
[00:16:36] of business economics. Our exclusive stories, interviews,
[00:16:39] read them on forbesbih.com, watch n1 and read Forbes.
[00:30:24] Good evening, dear viewers, welcome to
[00:30:26] the news.
[00:30:30] Citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina today elected members of government bodies, a total of
[00:30:33] 518 of them. Voter turnout by 5 PM
[00:30:36] was 32.20%. Citizens are electing a new government for the first time with the
[00:30:40] help of new technologies.
[00:30:43] To have a little change, to have it a little better, this has been
[00:30:47] terrible so far, so I expect nothing, a little harder, much harder
[00:30:50] situation than it has been so far, unfortunately that's how it is,
[00:30:54] we always hope for the best, and
[00:30:57] this time we hope that young people...