N1HRV — broadcast
20260806 130000 UTC
509 transcript segments
Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking
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[00:00:00] consumer loans, we can also comment
[00:00:03] on that a little. Here are topics that Kyiv was left without
[00:00:07] defense and since Trump is hesitant
[00:00:10] with air defense, that is, the Patriot system,
[00:00:14] here is a topic that we followed today when rivers
[00:00:18] dry up, meaning that the Krško nuclear power plant started
[00:00:21] reducing the reactor's power due to fear
[00:00:24] related to the Sava river. Let's move on to the Jutarnji
[00:00:28] list. We already dealt with this topic today. That is
[00:00:31] Andrej Plenković's promise that
[00:00:34] there will be higher pensions for 200,000
[00:00:38] veterans. We don't know exactly what kind of package
[00:00:41] it is. Here, Jutarnji list says that the government rejected
[00:00:45] a similar model in June that was proposed, we can. We
[00:00:49] had Damir Bakić today, yes, we can, and we just
[00:00:52] discussed this topic. And here's another interesting
[00:00:55] consequence of the drought, that the Danube in recent
[00:00:59] days, as it dries up, old
[00:01:03] ships come out, and some bombs left from
[00:01:07] some past times and old
[00:01:09] wars. Slobodna Dalmacija, the main news
[00:01:13] there is also higher veteran pensions.
[00:01:16] We'll see, we'll see what that really means. Nobody knows
[00:01:20] what exactly it's about. Here's another
[00:01:23] interesting thing about Hvar. Hvar has, after the last few
[00:01:26] years, greatly changed its
[00:01:30] party scene, we can call it that. Parties
[00:01:33] have been reduced, clubs, decibels,
[00:01:37] and actually the type of tourism has largely
[00:01:40] changed. 24 sata
[00:01:43] puts on its front page the problem
[00:01:47] of scooters driven by children, who then remove
[00:01:50] the blocks, drive without helmets, and
[00:01:53] unfortunately, we now have some tragic
[00:01:56] fatalities. The question arises here how... how
[00:02:00] this will be resolved further. Here it is, this
[00:02:04] headline in 24 sata: no picture, no sound even on the day of the storm.
[00:02:09] start to affect Namely, the Prime Minister and the President of the state had General Pujo between
[00:02:12] them so they wouldn't sit next to each other. Glas
[00:02:16] Slavonije's front page states
[00:02:19] severe sexual abuse of a minor, a story
[00:02:22] that has been shaking the Požega diocese in recent days. They say
[00:02:26] the suspected priest was removed from service only after
[00:02:30] this case became public. So,
[00:02:33] finally, Telegram, with whose Jasmin Klarić we
[00:02:37] are talking to. Here's the first news about how
[00:02:40] the Moroccan king outsmarted the Spanish prime minister and why
[00:02:43] Trump became his strongest asset. Namely, in this whole
[00:02:46] story about Ceuta, many questions are now being raised about who really
[00:02:50] orchestrated those tens of thousands
[00:02:54] of people who very easily crossed into Ceuta.
[00:02:57] Are there some external geopolitical
[00:03:00] interests, perhaps of some other powers, and a desire for destabilization
[00:03:03] of Spain? Then the question also arises why would anyone have an interest
[00:03:07] in blocking or putting Spain in a difficult
[00:03:11] position? We can now,
[00:03:14] Jasmin, you and I, deal with all these
[00:03:17] topics. I know, I know that your text about parties
[00:03:21] in Croatia and polls was published half an hour ago. It's not
[00:03:24] on these front pages that we have prepared here since it's
[00:03:27] the latest. Maybe we also recently had some
[00:03:31] polls that showed a potential victory
[00:03:34] of the left coalition, SDP Možemo, what did you
[00:03:38] write about? Well, I tried to show, considering that the
[00:03:42] monthly polls that we constantly follow are only
[00:03:45] a blurred snapshot in time, they give a better picture when viewed
[00:03:49] over a longer period, I tried to show the
[00:03:52] change that occurred in this mandate, which we didn't have
[00:03:55] before. The right had a convincing advantage over
[00:03:58] the left for this entire decade, actually, since Plenković
[00:04:02] came to power. Uh, sometime
[00:04:06] at the end of 2024, that trend changed, and
[00:04:09] now SDP Možemo has an advantage
[00:04:12] everywhere around us, especially in between HDZ and the Homeland Movement. For
[00:04:16] a very long time now, almost two years, that advantage has
[00:04:19] varied from one to seven percentage points. It's currently
[00:04:22] around three, but when the graph is put together, you can see how it
[00:04:26] goes from blue to red, and I think that's
[00:04:30] the main reason for the nervousness that Plenković often exudes lately.
[00:04:34] And they also know how to read polls and trends from them.
[00:04:37] So do you think that these announcements,
[00:04:41] for example, about increasing veteran pensions yesterday in Knin, are
[00:04:44] really some government measures, or is it precisely about perhaps
[00:04:48] a little pandering? Both,
[00:04:52] certainly. I mean, it was pretty obvious
[00:04:55] already when they rejected this initiative, we can for increasing
[00:04:59] a part of veteran pensions that
[00:05:01] at some point very soon HDZ would present
[00:05:05] a similar initiative as its own. That is precisely what is happening,
[00:05:08] it was even somewhat logical that it would be ceremoniously
[00:05:12] presented on Victory Day in Knin. Nothing
[00:05:15] unexpected is happening. Will it work for HDZ?
[00:05:19] Will uh, in some way,
[00:05:22] succeed in additionally binding that population to itself? We will see. In
[00:05:26] any case, it seems to me that this is still a political point for Možemo, not for
[00:05:29] HDZ, because it is their initiative that is now
[00:05:33] actually posthumously being brought to life, and I think
[00:05:37] it is crucial that the pensions of those people who
[00:05:41] returned to war after the war, that is, continued to work until retirement, be
[00:05:44] increased. I think that is the key to the whole story, that it matters less who will
[00:05:48] politically profit from it.
[00:05:51] As for yesterday's celebration of the 31st anniversary
[00:05:54] of the storm, the day really
[00:05:57] passed without the already
[00:06:00] perhaps expected incidents and
[00:06:04] political conflicts. The only thing we had in that regard was
[00:06:07] the fact that the prime minister and president sat separately,
[00:06:11] but we really didn't have any major incidents. Miro
[00:06:14] Bulj removed the tape so that ordinary
[00:06:18] people, as he put it, would not
[00:06:21] be in some lower status than this elite, as
[00:06:25] he said, but nothing else more or less
[00:06:28] happened. Uh, is that story being
[00:06:32] washed away in some way? How do you
[00:06:34] see yesterday's, then of course I'd also like
[00:06:38] to hear these comments on Aleksandar Vučić,
[00:06:41] Milorad Dodik. Yes, well, it's not exactly that there were no
[00:06:45] incidents, there were pro-Ustaša incidents, unfortunately, every
[00:06:48] year, and it's obvious that they have gained
[00:06:52] citizenship rights, that they have actually become a part of the commemoration of the Storm, which
[00:06:55] plays into the hands of Vučić and Dodik whom
[00:06:58] you mention. Uh,
[00:07:02] there was shouting of "Za dom spremni" (For the homeland, ready), Škeo and Keleminac
[00:07:05] with their team.
[00:07:08] Mm, former football national team player, Jo Šimunić, who ended
[00:07:12] his national career due to an Ustaša incident
[00:07:15] after a match when he led chanting "Za dom spremni", so he got
[00:07:19] a 10-match ban and then he lost in all possible courts when he
[00:07:23] appealed that decision. Uh, he came in a "Za
[00:07:26] dom spremni" T-shirt, posed with Bulj and
[00:07:30] with the team there so
[00:07:34] uh, it's true these incidents are still on the sidelines, but they cast a serious
[00:07:38] shadow not only on the commemoration
[00:07:41] but on... the whole story of Victory Day on
[00:07:44] the Storm.
[00:07:47] Uh, August 5th is, I think, a holiday
[00:07:51] about which there are the fewest divisions in Croatia. I think everyone
[00:07:55] uh
[00:07:57] is positive towards that holiday, towards that event that
[00:08:00] happened. Towards, I think all of us who were
[00:08:04] then old enough remember
[00:08:08] that excitement and enthusiasm that on the
[00:08:11] day when it was announced that Knin was conquered, that it was liberated,
[00:08:15] which meant that the backbone of the rebellion in
[00:08:18] Croatia was broken, that more normal times were coming,
[00:08:22] that the war had de facto ended.
[00:08:25] Uh, this way in which the far-right
[00:08:28] tries to take that holiday for itself is very
[00:08:32] bad in the long run, not only for Croatia's image abroad, but also for divisions within
[00:08:35] Croatia. But for that, the political government that allows
[00:08:39] it is always most to blame, in its ok. that some things that
[00:08:43] should be sanctioned are sanctioned. How much
[00:08:46] one would say if one looks at this kind
[00:08:49] of symbolism, iconography that has, in the past
[00:08:53] few years, entered the mainstream,
[00:08:56] which are no longer just some
[00:08:59] claims just like that, but something that we see in almost
[00:09:03] every similar event like this. How
[00:09:06] problematic is it actually that it is now being presented as if HOS
[00:09:10] practically carried out...
[00:09:12] it is a falsification of history to attribute
[00:09:15] that HOS was the largest everything that happened unit, that
[00:09:20] in the war to the successes of the far
[00:09:24] right, and that is the stake
[00:09:28] in current political battles, that's simply what it's about,
[00:09:32] but that's simply a falsification
[00:09:34] of history, and I think that actually
[00:09:37] harms veterans the most
[00:09:41] and generally. It harms Croatia the most, as
[00:09:45] I said, both regarding its external image and
[00:09:48] regarding the internal balance
[00:09:51] of peace in society. I'm afraid that things will escalate
[00:09:55] further because I see no
[00:09:57] will in the current government to put an end
[00:10:00] to pro-Ustaša incidents, and if the next government
[00:10:04] takes a firmer stance on this, then there will be
[00:10:07] everything. Yes, there could be a backlash, yes,
[00:10:10] there could be, but at some point it has to happen.
[00:10:13] And is there enough
[00:10:16] reason, because this is about very, these
[00:10:20] are topics that are very emotional for people,
[00:10:23] deeply ingrained somewhere.
[00:10:26] it can cause, especially since, look, we have been living for about ten years
[00:10:30] in a period in which
[00:10:32] that kind of
[00:10:35] rhetoric has normalized, it has entered some sort of
[00:10:38] mainstream, I say it didn't exist before, but it simply wasn't nearly
[00:10:42] as present, yes. Here,
[00:10:45] now, what will the reaction be
[00:10:48] against those who will try to
[00:10:52] neutralize it, suppress it?
[00:10:55] "Well, we saw reactions whenever HDZ was not in power, we had
[00:10:59] attempts to destabilize on the street, meaning
[00:11:02] not uh, not
[00:11:06] civilian protests, but actual destabilization and threats of force.
[00:11:09] We had the Riva, we had threats of roadblocks
[00:11:12] on the highway from Hvidra during Račan's government, we had
[00:11:16] the tent, we had gas canisters, clashes with
[00:11:19] the police, we will have more of that, very likely
[00:11:22] in a situation when HDZ is not
[00:11:25] in power, mm. It's sad that all of this
[00:11:29] would probably be much calmer
[00:11:32] if HDZ decided
[00:11:35] to put an end to the whole story. People might
[00:11:38] remember when a monument to
[00:11:42] Mile Budak was erected overnight somewhere in
[00:11:45] Lika, Sanader sent bulldozers the next morning, the monument was
[00:11:49] demolished and that was it. There was no reaction afterwards. How different
[00:11:53] is this HDZ today from Tuđman's and
[00:11:56] Sanader's? Well, this one is significantly
[00:11:59] different, significantly different.
[00:12:02] Uh, in what way? Tuđman had
[00:12:05] a rather clear stance towards the extreme right. After all,
[00:12:09] he disbanded HOS
[00:12:11] during the war, he was fully aware how big of a problem
[00:12:15] that was for the future of Croatia at that
[00:12:17] time.
[00:12:21] Uh, during Sanader's time it was very similar,
[00:12:24] because Croatia was in the process of joining the European
[00:12:27] Union. During Tuđman's time, Croatia was seeking international
[00:12:31] confirmation, recognition and all the rest. Those pro-Ustaša
[00:12:35] incidents
[00:12:37] simply had to be suppressed. Now they don't have to be
[00:12:40] that much, because no one is judging us, and
[00:12:44] we don't depend on anyone as much as we depended before
[00:12:47] 30 or 20 years ago. So
[00:12:50] that's perhaps some mitigating circumstance for Plenković, that's
[00:12:54] why he's playing a waltz
[00:12:57] with pro-Ustašas, but the fact is
[00:13:01] that it's happening, the fact is that it's bad, but
[00:13:04] is pro-fascism something that goes unnoticed
[00:13:08] in Brussels? And Brussels' worries, what's happening
[00:13:11] with us? Well, I mean, what was happening in Hungary all these years? Brussels
[00:13:15] didn't really exert itself to
[00:13:19] resolve that situation, because Brussels is not
[00:13:22] some superior
[00:13:25] body to Croatia. Brussels, when we talk about political power, and Croatia,
[00:13:29] Croatia is part of that structure that
[00:13:32] decides. It's much harder to
[00:13:35] fight for, I mean, you can't fight for an independent position when you're
[00:13:39] in the accession process, then you have to do what you're told if you want to join
[00:13:43] that club. But when you're inside, then it's a completely
[00:13:46] different matter. Let's return briefly
[00:13:49] to political parties in
[00:13:52] Croatia. SDP and Možemo have this
[00:13:55] tendency not to comment on certain
[00:13:59] questions for which one would expect someone who
[00:14:03] aspires to be in power to have
[00:14:05] a stance. These are some regional and foreign
[00:14:09] policy issues. Do you think, given that you follow this,
[00:14:13] that it could backfire on them? Not yet,
[00:14:16] but when things
[00:14:19] heat up sometime from next autumn onwards,
[00:14:23] I think they will have to have a clear stance. Not just that
[00:14:27] corruption is evil, that the
[00:14:30] situation is
[00:14:33] not difficult yet, but as we see from these headlines, it is potentially
[00:14:36] very demanding. I mean, this story about the growth
[00:14:39] of loans,
[00:14:42] uh, it won't be enough to just, to just deal with that, even though
[00:14:46] that must be their core
[00:14:49] business. They will have to have very clear stances on some foreign policy
[00:14:52] issues and these sensitive matters we were talking about earlier,
[00:14:56] with normalized extreme right. And answers will be demanded
[00:15:00] from them on how to resolve certain things.
[00:15:03] Now, part of political skill in a campaign
[00:15:07] is not to go into so much detail that you could excessively anger voters from
[00:15:10] the other side, but some stances will have to be taken. As for
[00:15:14] these loans, that's still something we said
[00:15:17] we'd comment on. Yes, that's a pretty awkward, awkward story.
[00:15:21] I recently, maybe a month ago, published an interview with Boris
[00:15:25] Lalovac, the former Minister of Finance,
[00:15:28] who was,
[00:15:30] he was actually referring to HNB reports, he didn't
[00:15:34] have any special statistics of his own, but... "That
[00:15:38] increase in loans and a slight increase in bad
[00:15:41] loans is very worrying, because we remember from the crisis
[00:15:44] of 2008, 2009
[00:15:47] onwards, uh, how bad it is when the dominoes
[00:15:51] start falling and how little it takes
[00:15:54] for some kind of economic
[00:15:58] instability to collapse the entire system if indebtedness is
[00:16:02] high. We currently have all the conditions
[00:16:05] for a perfect storm, it just needs a small external
[00:16:09] impulse for things to start collapsing.
[00:16:12] Luckily, we now have the safety net of the European
[00:16:16] Union, and we will more easily get out of any future
[00:16:20] crisis, but the fact is that many of us in
[00:16:23] Croatia are already over-indebted,
[00:16:26] that wages will not grow. Until now they grew, and
[00:16:30] until now, with that expected wage growth, it was possible
[00:16:33] to cover increased debt, but now debt is growing.
[00:16:37] And wages remain the same. Inflation is still very
[00:16:41] high, close to 4% last month, that's 100%
[00:16:44] more than the desired inflation rate of
[00:16:48] 2%, which is a kind of boundary to maintain
[00:16:51] economic vitality, so that price increases don't jeopardize standards.
[00:16:55] Price increases have been jeopardizing citizens' standards in this country for six years now. That was somewhat
[00:16:59] masked by pre-election mega wage increases, but
[00:17:02] that, by all accounts, will no longer happen, or it won't be nearly
[00:17:06] as much, so I'm afraid that Croatian debtors will have to
[00:17:10] face the bitter truth in the next couple of years. And
[00:17:13] the government's anti-inflationary measures, I know,
[00:17:16] it's a break, it's summer, yes, they should come into effect from
[00:17:20] the first month, but somehow I'm
[00:17:23] skeptical, because inflation wasn't from three months ago,
[00:17:27] inflation has been here for six years, and all the measures that the government has taken so far
[00:17:30] have proven to be utterly insufficient, and some of them even
[00:17:34] stimulated price growth." 'm
[00:17:38] I'm afraid that some of these proposed measures, such as increasing taxes
[00:17:41] for flat-rate payers, although I understand the intention to
[00:17:45] try to avoid undeclared work, I think
[00:17:48] that these could be pro-inflationary and not anti-inflationary measures, yes,
[00:17:52] or the question arises whether that is the main thing that needs
[00:17:56] to be resolved. Well, at this moment, I don't think so,
[00:18:00] but I don't know. Let's give them the benefit
[00:18:04] of the doubt, let's wait for January and then we'll see
[00:18:08] how much those measures will affect the inflation rate. Of course, it
[00:18:11] has its own life independent of the measures of the Croatian government, but it can be
[00:18:15] compared with other countries in the European Union, the Eurozone,
[00:18:18] and based on that we will see how much is left of
[00:18:22] Plenković's inflation. Will Ćorić's measures succeed
[00:18:25] in taming Plenković's inflation? Jasmin, thank
[00:18:29] you for this analysis. This was Jasmin Klarić from
[00:18:32] Telegram.
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[00:21:34] We continue the conversation right on this topic, with me
[00:21:38] is our colleague, meteorologist Mr. Bojan Lipovščak. Mr.
[00:21:41] Lipovščak, welcome. Good to
[00:21:44] see you. Here we see it all, very
[00:21:47] high temperatures. I don't know. "In the last two months, I don't
[00:21:51] know how many times I have mentioned the phrase
[00:21:54] heatwave, so the question to you is, have
[00:21:57] heatwaves become a new normal?"
[00:22:01] Well, the new normal is ugly, we have an ugly
[00:22:04] connotation when we say new normal, I immediately think of Covid and that
[00:22:08] situation, it comes back to us, but unfortunately in
[00:22:12] meteorology it has become a reality, not a new
[00:22:15] new normal,
[00:22:17] heatwaves are getting longer."
[00:22:21] they last longer and have also become
[00:22:23] more intense. Austria broke
[00:22:27] temperature records this week. We predicted
[00:22:31] temperatures up to 40° here,
[00:22:34] at private meteorological, at private
[00:22:37] meteorological stations, these are not official stations that are not
[00:22:41] installed everywhere exactly according to the regulations
[00:22:45] of the World Meteorological Organization, it was also
[00:22:48] 42 degrees yesterday in Slavonia and
[00:22:51] Baranja, which means that we have reached
[00:22:54] the true peak of the heatwave. Namely,
[00:22:58] dry warm air, this time dry air came
[00:23:02] from Africa, it came to our regions and we are currently
[00:23:05] right under the peak
[00:23:08] of that heatwave. It is slowly moving eastward.
[00:23:12] I mentioned that the air is dry because last
[00:23:15] heatwave we had humid air. Mhm. It was perhaps even
[00:23:18] harder
[00:23:22] for people to endure that heat, because then
[00:23:25] the heat index is much higher, because humidity
[00:23:29] acts in that way in the atmosphere that we have a feeling
[00:23:32] of heat that is much higher, the heat is three to four, even
[00:23:36] five degrees higher with a large percentage
[00:23:39] of humidity. What is interesting now in
[00:23:43] the atmosphere, the situation has
[00:23:47] changed in that ... the
[00:23:50] current is currently located somewhere
[00:23:53] from England across Denmark
[00:23:56] to uh, up to
[00:24:00] Scandinavia, mhm. That's the jet stream at an altitude of
[00:24:03] 11 km above the ground. The average
[00:24:07] wind speed is around 200, 210
[00:24:10] km/h, but north of that
[00:24:14] jet stream is cold air, and it is slowly
[00:24:17] descending as the jet stream moves south. So
[00:24:21] that cold air continues to move south, and it will
[00:24:25] reach the Alps and get stuck there on the Alpine
[00:24:28] barrier. Now, some will cross the Alpine barrier
[00:24:31] and bring a change in weather to
[00:24:35] us, mostly it will flow towards
[00:24:38] uh, towards the northeast. So,
[00:24:41] large storms are expected uh
[00:24:44] soon in Slovakia, Czech Republic,
[00:24:48] Poland, meaning... there will be the cold front
[00:24:52] itself and a real clash of air
[00:24:55] masses. Here, smaller amounts will pass
[00:24:59] through, mostly through the Vienna Gate. Uh, that term
[00:25:02] Vienna Gate is actually the place where the Alps end
[00:25:06] and the Carpathians begin. There's a plain there where the Pannonian
[00:25:10] Pannonian plain opens up, and
[00:25:13] through that natural passage
[00:25:17] cold air penetrates and then flows
[00:25:20] into our regions, so there will be
[00:25:23] a small drop in temperature. We already expect tomorrow
[00:25:27] afternoon the first cloud cover in the northwestern parts
[00:25:30] of the interior, northern Adriatic, where there are already
[00:25:34] some small instabilities, but that's all
[00:25:37] within the air mass, meaning nothing big.
[00:25:40] So we are not at the end of this heatwave, the
[00:25:44] cooling that is coming starts tomorrow, meaning from
[00:25:47] tomorrow the wave, the wave is moving, so... that we are coming to
[00:25:50] some kind of end to this heat wave,
[00:25:53] however, with the rapid passage of that
[00:25:56] cold front that will pass north of us, we are again
[00:26:00] getting high pressure. we are getting
[00:26:03] stable weather, clear weather
[00:26:06] continues. high
[00:26:09] air temperature continues, so we will have a small cool down that will
[00:26:13] last three to four days, mostly it will be felt in the northwestern
[00:26:17] parts of the interior on the northern Adriatic, while
[00:26:19] the eastern parts of the interior and
[00:26:23] southern and central Dalmatia will remain
[00:26:26] spared from large temperature changes, the temperature will
[00:26:29] drop by two to three degrees there, here with us... it will drop by
[00:26:33] 8 degrees, mhm, but that doesn't mean that
[00:26:36] the heat wave has stopped, meaning temperatures will
[00:26:40] be around 30 degrees here, on the Adriatic it will continue to be around
[00:26:43] 36, and
[00:26:46] now, these, these summers and
[00:26:49] these, we said, it's not a new normal, but a reality we
[00:26:53] are witnessing, why is that so? global
[00:26:56] warming was, was a term that was used, it stopped being used now,
[00:27:00] now these climate changes are used.
[00:27:02] What is this about? Global warming is
[00:27:06] part of climate change. What
[00:27:09] is, what is it all about? It is about the fact
[00:27:12] that the concentration
[00:27:16] of gases, i.e. CO2, greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
[00:27:20] is high, and they simply
[00:27:23] do not allow heat to leave
[00:27:25] the Earth's atmosphere that, the heat that comes from
[00:27:29] the sun to leave the entire system, that is one of the big
[00:27:33] barriers. The sea started to warm up,
[00:27:37] the sea is abnormally warm,
[00:27:39] currently, currently we have the Adriatic which is three to
[00:27:43] four degrees warmer than some average values we had
[00:27:47] before, a large amount of heat is
[00:27:50] accumulated in the Pacific, where El
[00:27:54] Niño started, which will affect the weather here, but
[00:27:57] not yet, it will affect us in about
[00:28:01] three to four months, meaning late
[00:28:04] autumn, early winter is the effect of El Niño,
[00:28:08] El Niño on Europe, it will now first
[00:28:11] the Pacific, Indo-
[00:28:14] China, Japan, and then it will move to America, its
[00:28:18] effect is gradual, it is, it is a
[00:28:22] process in the atmosphere that is taking place, and what are its,
[00:28:25] its effects, for example here when it comes, the effects here will be that it will
[00:28:29] be warmer and uh all...
[00:28:33] numerical models for medium-range and long-range
[00:28:36] weather forecasts already feel that
[00:28:39] physical impulse that comes from
[00:28:43] warm air, i.e. from the increase in temperature
[00:28:46] that is associated with the increase in temperature due to
[00:28:49] El Niño, mhm, so we expect that
[00:28:52] towards the end of the year, warmer
[00:28:56] weather will persist than usual, meaning
[00:28:59] with temperatures up to 1.5 to 3 degrees
[00:29:03] higher than usual,
[00:29:06] meaning we can expect a long warm autumn and
[00:29:09] a mild start to winter in terms of
[00:29:12] temperature, but in terms of precipitation, the models
[00:29:16] are quite varied, namely
[00:29:18] the results of the models we calculate so-called
[00:29:22] ensemble forecasts where the same model is
[00:29:25] run 50 times, but with different
[00:29:29] initial conditions, mhm, if the
[00:29:32] initial conditions change, then the outputs from the model are also different, so
[00:29:36] then we look at how much deviation there is when
[00:29:39] something changes in the initial conditions, here with
[00:29:41] the precipitation system, the deviation is quite
[00:29:44] large, so the problem is actually
[00:29:48] in the Mediterranean Sea, we go back then from global, we have to
[00:29:52] go back to a lower scale, I just had a question for
[00:29:55] you about the Mediterranean, to a lower scale, namely when you look at the climate
[00:29:59] overall, then you have more, you have different
[00:30:02] influences that affect the weather here, because what we
[00:30:06] look at as weather is something that in our
[00:30:09] synoptic scales is a one-day forecast, that is, the weather
[00:30:13] forecast for one to seven days, that is synoptic, above
[00:30:17] that we already come to a medium-range weather
[00:30:20] forecast that has a validity of 12 days, but there we already have to look at
[00:30:24] all of Europe, the Northern Hemisphere, when we switch
[00:30:27] to climate modeling for
[00:30:30] periods of six months, then
[00:30:33] we have to take the entire Earth globally with all its
[00:30:37] weather systems that are currently on Earth, and
[00:30:40] then we simulate how that would
[00:30:43] evolve over time, what happens with that
[00:30:47] amount of energy that we have in the system. now the problem
[00:30:51] with autumn is that the Mediterranean is very
[00:30:54] warm, warm Mediterranean can
[00:30:57] cause uh rapid phenomena.