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[00:00:29] You are watching Global. The focus topic of energy insecurity,
[00:00:32] instability, energy crisis, we continue with one of the most prominent energy experts
[00:00:36] in Serbia, Mr. Aleksandar Kovačević, who is a senior research
[00:00:39] associate at the Oxford Institute for Energy
[00:00:42] Studies. Good evening, welcome to
[00:00:46] Global Focus. Let's start with you, what are the basic geopolitical
[00:00:50] factors that cause the energy crisis, energy
[00:00:53] instability, and how does that affect us
[00:00:55] here? Uh,
[00:00:59] many, many factors, so we have the
[00:01:01] traditional ones, meaning what we have
[00:01:05] known for decades as sensitive points in energy transit,
[00:01:08] the Hormuz Strait, the Suez
[00:01:11] Canal, the Malacca Strait, and
[00:01:15] so on, in all those places we have some kind
[00:01:18] of political, political
[00:01:22] when you look at oil and instability, one dimension, the second dimension is
[00:01:25] that of course there is...
[00:01:32] "reorganization of the world market,
[00:01:36] liquefied natural gas
[00:01:39] has taken a very large
[00:01:42] part of the world energy market, coal has
[00:01:45] somewhat decreased, coal is
[00:01:49] relatively available in many places and
[00:01:52] easier to transport and so
[00:01:55] on, liquefied gas is not, it
[00:01:58] is in a smaller..." number of places
[00:02:02] uh, the problem of investments in terminals, ships and so on is
[00:02:06] significantly larger, now we have a situation where
[00:02:09] the sensitivity of one and the same transport route is actually
[00:02:13] greater, because much larger sums of money are involved,
[00:02:17] meaning far, far greater,
[00:02:20] a far greater problem, thus it
[00:02:23] gives
[00:02:25] also ideas
[00:02:27] from terrorist groups to states.
[00:02:30] political actors and so on that
[00:02:33] they could achieve something if
[00:02:36] they exert appropriate pressure on the same point we knew from before, but
[00:02:39] now that point
[00:02:43] has a far greater intensity of capital than it ever had before,
[00:02:47] that is one
[00:02:51] one special dimension,
[00:02:54] of course this dynamic and
[00:02:57] the distribution of energy consumption has changed.
[00:03:01] Mhm, so consumption is more in the
[00:03:04] East, Far East, not just
[00:03:08] China, but also those countries there that have
[00:03:12] intensive economic development, Indonesia, Malaysia,
[00:03:15] Vietnam, Thailand, India and
[00:03:19] so on and so on, so now we also have a slightly
[00:03:23] different direction, slightly different
[00:03:26] transport than it was, those countries are...
[00:03:30] "with modern industry in a position to pay a higher price
[00:03:35] feet, tingling sensation, for energy than Europe, for example, that's where the disruption
[00:03:39] occurs, and how does that affect us and
[00:03:42] spill over,
[00:03:45] well, uh directly, I suppose, well actually,
[00:03:49] actually, I would say more indirectly, mhm,
[00:03:53] namely Serbia is uh, not only a country
[00:03:56] that has no access to the sea, so
[00:03:59] it participates in this, let's say
[00:04:02] global world market, participation is actually
[00:04:05] indirect, precisely because it is
[00:04:09] indirect, where the influence of these global
[00:04:12] events affects those
[00:04:16] few partners
[00:04:20] that Serbia has, the Russian Federation,
[00:04:23] Ukraine, here, here, let's say
[00:04:26] that regional, regional cooperation, we actually
[00:04:30] uh, not only do we not have access to the sea, but
[00:04:34] every conceivable direction to
[00:04:36] the sea, there are some countries
[00:04:40] whose logistics, transport systems
[00:04:43] are very unreliable, expensive,
[00:04:46] bad, insufficient, small, and so on
[00:04:50] and so on, so actually there is no good access to the sea,
[00:04:52] yes, it seems that we are a bit and then of course
[00:04:56] the difference in price is large.
[00:05:01] uh, so now we are observing
[00:05:03] the European spot gas market, and we say the
[00:05:07] price is very high, yes, this,
[00:05:10] we don't see the price that
[00:05:13] is formed by long-term contracts, which is formed
[00:05:16] on a liquid maritime
[00:05:19] market, the European market is not
[00:05:22] a liquid maritime market, and what
[00:05:26] measures has Europe taken in the last four or five years, I connect this to the war in Ukraine, do they have effects, what
[00:05:30] are their limitations?
[00:05:33] We will return to our situation,
[00:05:36] well, look at the
[00:05:39] crises, unfortunately, now
[00:05:43] it will be 34 years
[00:05:46] since I have been writing analyses about the crisis, or about
[00:05:49] energy crises,
[00:05:51] uh,
[00:05:54] there is a difference, when you look at the crisis from 2009,
[00:05:58] the effect was
[00:06:02] relatively modest, gas transit
[00:06:04] through Ukraine stopped, Europe
[00:06:08] found itself in a situation where it had to solve that problem in some other way.
[00:06:13] "adjustment was relatively quick, consumption
[00:06:16] was reduced to some extent,
[00:06:19] uh, prices went up a little
[00:06:22] more, but not much,
[00:06:26] and there was no significant release of reserves,
[00:06:29] the world market didn't even notice it, meaning
[00:06:34] gas prices in 2009, nothing particularly happened,
[00:06:38] look at 2022,
[00:06:41] the price jump didn't happen when the war started,
[00:06:45] no, it happened a few months later when
[00:06:49] public funds approved money to supposedly
[00:06:53] fill storage facilities,
[00:06:55] for a price jump to occur, you must have both
[00:06:58] sides, supply demanding
[00:07:01] a higher price, but also demand willing to pay that higher
[00:07:05] price, and that means, if I remember correctly, there were suddenly
[00:07:09] some repairs in Russia on...
[00:07:13] but you have you have subsidizing
[00:07:17] mhm which brings a new dimension
[00:07:20] of uncertainty, political risk
[00:07:24] and finally money to
[00:07:27] pay high prices, now who can
[00:07:30] pay them, the one who has a very large monetary and fiscal
[00:07:34] capacity to be able to withstand
[00:07:38] such fiscal
[00:07:41] uh effects.
[00:07:43] "in Germany, you just had a report,
[00:07:47] in Germany energy accounts for approximately 2%
[00:07:51] of industrial activity, in Serbia it's about 20
[00:07:54] percent, mhm, the fiscal
[00:07:57] capacity of both is not the same, of course,
[00:08:00] and we had
[00:08:04] a terrible effect on
[00:08:08] Serbia's fiscal capacity at
[00:08:11] that time. "due to circumstances of breakdowns in
[00:08:15] Obrenovac in December 2021, we had to
[00:08:18] import a lot of electricity, then we imported
[00:08:22] electricity at a terribly high price, so what was
[00:08:25] what what should we do, I mean we have to consume energy, that's what I'm talking about,
[00:08:29] so you simply have a fiscal
[00:08:31] this uh, fiscal intervention,
[00:08:35] mhm, that was not the case in earlier
[00:08:38] crises, so it is much better."
[00:08:42] uh, much better adjustment of
[00:08:45] demand, reduction of demand, look at the famous oil
[00:08:48] crisis of '73,
[00:08:51] demand adjustment was the key
[00:08:54] mechanism, and now
[00:08:58] uh, you are talking about that, you said that
[00:09:01] it seems from what you said that we don't have
[00:09:05] much choice now, what will we do in such
[00:09:09] circumstances, our budget again like any other country, we would not
[00:09:13] be able to find money for such interventions, and why has Serbia even come to a situation where it has
[00:09:17] no choice in such interventions
[00:09:19] that are happening externally. I think
[00:09:23] it's not only in Serbia but in Europe generally in this
[00:09:26] part of the world uh
[00:09:30] the problem of energy efficiency
[00:09:33] in general the effectiveness of energy
[00:09:36] use is a terribly big problem. So
[00:09:40] Serbia the degree of energy utilization
[00:09:43] in Serbia is low, when
[00:09:46] you look at uh, energy consumption
[00:09:49] per capita in Serbia is approximately
[00:09:52] the same as in Italy, mhm, and
[00:09:55] Italy has 2.8 times higher national product
[00:09:59] per capita than Serbia, with the same amount of energy per
[00:10:03] capita, that tells you Italy is not
[00:10:06] particularly good, mhm, if you compared Italy
[00:10:10] and Japan and... South
[00:10:12] Korea, you would have an approximately similar
[00:10:15] situation, but the fact that we
[00:10:19] are dramatically lagging in energy
[00:10:22] efficiency uh creates a problem. A problem,
[00:10:25] mhm, when energy efficiency is not adequate,
[00:10:29] then the economy pays energy
[00:10:32] costs with more difficulty, you need a larger quantity that needs to be brought from somewhere,
[00:10:35] you don't have access to the sea, you have increased transit costs
[00:10:39] and then plus we import huge
[00:10:43] quantities of gas in terms of percentages, so 80 or
[00:10:46] 90, the same applies to oil, it is specifically said for gas
[00:10:50] that we have no other choice but to do that
[00:10:54] uh from... Russia,
[00:10:57] why haven't we created a source for ourselves until now? Well, yes,
[00:11:00] that of course, uh, it's not the only thing, because
[00:11:03] this is not a problem from yesterday, the day before yesterday, it's that
[00:11:06] we have uh,
[00:11:10] oil supply through one route
[00:11:13] via this oil pipeline from Janif from
[00:11:17] Croatia, we have gas supply with the
[00:11:20] idea that it is a possible source, neither is
[00:11:23] true. Meaning there are enough
[00:11:26] different options that
[00:11:30] of course in the previous
[00:11:33] I would say 54 years
[00:11:36] could have been
[00:11:39] opened, arranged and used and so on and so
[00:11:43] on, uh more problems, energy
[00:11:46] efficiency is of course a problem
[00:11:49] uh terrible terrible
[00:11:52] seasonal sensitivity energy consumption is terribly
[00:11:56] sensitive to weather conditions, cold days
[00:12:00] produce high spikes, a large spike
[00:12:03] in energy consumption, very large,
[00:12:07] uh, again we have another situation, how do you assess the situation with NIS, so
[00:12:10] the Americans continue to insist that we must or rather that it must not
[00:12:14] be owned by Russia, at the same time they keep
[00:12:17] extending that license, so why on the one hand do the United
[00:12:21] States insist that it uh... should be taken from
[00:12:25] Russia, and why is Russia delaying the sale, will we in Serbia
[00:12:28] end up paying the price for all
[00:12:32] of that? Well, I mean,
[00:12:35] it's simple to conclude, the Russian Federation is
[00:12:39] at war, of course that country
[00:12:42] uses all its resources,
[00:12:45] property it has in the country, abroad, for war
[00:12:49] objectives,
[00:12:52] uh, so this property which is... enters
[00:12:55] Serbia, is not just commercial
[00:12:58] property with the goal of providing
[00:13:02] the highest income to shareholders,
[00:13:06] it has its strategic and other
[00:13:08] effects.
[00:13:11] Could management be better in a commercial sense? Yes,
[00:13:14] much, of course shareholders could have
[00:13:17] much better commercial
[00:13:20] effects than they have, unfortunately this has been going on for a long
[00:13:24] time. "uh, so it should not
[00:13:27] be viewed only as commercial, it is quite
[00:13:30] clear that a country with a strategic interest does not
[00:13:34] want to give up uh the tool that helps in
[00:13:38] executing that strategic interest, that is one dimension, of course
[00:13:42] everyone else has the opposite, the opposite goal
[00:13:46] to take that tool out of those hands
[00:13:49] or for someone else to take it out of those hands, Serbia's interest would actually
[00:13:53] be extremely simple."
[00:13:55] that this property yields the best possible, the best commercial
[00:13:58] result, because that would also enable
[00:14:02] the best market supply,
[00:14:04] the best fuel prices,
[00:14:07] finally the best result for Serbia
[00:14:10] or Serbian citizens who are shareholders in that
[00:14:13] company, so we have three
[00:14:16] completely different, completely
[00:14:20] different interests, now
[00:14:22] it's interesting that so far in... this discussion that
[00:14:26] has been going on for months, there has not been a
[00:14:29] way uh
[00:14:32] to align the interests of small shareholders and the Republic
[00:14:35] of Serbia, which would be expected, both actually
[00:14:39] have a very, very clear
[00:14:43] commercial interest,
[00:14:45] Mr. Kovačević, for this is all the time we have, thank you very much
[00:14:49] for being a guest of Global Focus on
[00:14:55] "Turkish opposition, the Republican Party achieved a great
[00:14:58] victory in the local elections of 2024, winning some of the largest
[00:15:02] votes in Turkey, the victory came at a price, the government attacked
[00:15:05] the opposition violently with pressures, arrests of opposition
[00:15:09] mayors, court disputes, and at the end of
[00:15:12] last week, surprisingly, the mayor of Izmir, the third largest
[00:15:16] city and opposition stronghold, defected
[00:15:19] to the AKP, President Erdoğan's ruling
[00:15:23] party. My colleague Dušan Mlađenović spoke about this with a member
[00:15:27] of the new party.
[00:15:33] Mr. Bilici, thank you for speaking to
[00:15:36] N1.
[00:15:38] I'm glad to be with you,
[00:15:40] Dušan.
[00:15:44] Izmir has long been an opposition stronghold. What does Cemil
[00:15:47] Tugay's defection to Erdogan's party mean for the people who voted for
[00:15:51] him, and how did your party react? We saw
[00:15:54] protests.
[00:15:59] Yes, if I may, I would go back a step to explain things from
[00:16:03] the beginning. As you may know, the opposition won
[00:16:06] the local elections in 2024,
[00:16:09] then for the first time in 47 years, the main opposition
[00:16:13] party CHP became the leading political party. Izmir
[00:16:17] is the third largest city in Turkey, a stronghold of progressive and
[00:16:20] social democratic politics. During various mandates and periods,
[00:16:24] it was inclined towards that political option. In the local
[00:16:27] elections of 2024, 49% of Izmir's citizens
[00:16:31] voted for the opposition, while only
[00:16:34] 37% voted for the ruling party. This
[00:16:37] decision was a shock, our party, its members and
[00:16:41] leadership strongly criticized it because we believe that
[00:16:44] the citizens of Izmir deserve a clear explanation that their
[00:16:47] democratic choices and decisions must be respected.
[00:16:51] By doing this, they feel betrayed and believe that their
[00:16:55] choice was not
[00:16:56] respected.
[00:17:00] Why is this happening, what makes opposition mayors
[00:17:04] join the ruling party, what do you hear about the pressures before?
[00:17:15] In short, there is a crackdown on the opposition, especially on
[00:17:19] the main opposition party. Just a few months ago, control
[00:17:23] over the main opposition party was taken. By a court decision,
[00:17:26] a disputed court decision, the leader of the opposition party
[00:17:30] Ozgur Ezel was removed from office, and the former party
[00:17:33] president was reinstated. This caused
[00:17:36] great disappointment in Turkish society, which is why
[00:17:39] we had no other choice, besides me, 90
[00:17:43] of my colleagues, including the president of our party, Ozgur
[00:17:47] Ezel, had no other choice but to start
[00:17:49] from scratch, so we founded a new party, but to
[00:17:53] answer your question, currently more than 40
[00:17:56] opposition mayors are in prison, all of them are from
[00:17:59] the opposition, this points to something dark, confusing,
[00:18:02] unusual, something you would not hear or see in democratic
[00:18:06] countries. One of the consequences is that since the local
[00:18:09] elections of 2024, around 76
[00:18:13] mayors have switched from the opposition bloc to the bloc
[00:18:16] of the ruling party or to the ruling party itself. In addition,
[00:18:20] around 20 members of parliament have also changed political
[00:18:23] affiliation and switched from opposition parties or the opposition bloc
[00:18:26] to the side of the ruling party. Politicians can, of course,
[00:18:30] make their own decisions, but there are allegations of
[00:18:33] enormous political pressure, blackmail, threats, as well as
[00:18:37] personal or political advantages and promises that were
[00:18:40] offered to them. We see this as a structural problem,
[00:18:44] because municipalities largely depend on the decisions and budget of the central government,
[00:18:48] including borrowing, financing, and the like.
[00:18:51] Large infrastructure projects also depend on the approval
[00:18:54] of the presidency. When political and personal survival, as well as
[00:18:58] access to money and resources become factors in
[00:19:00] decision-making, I think some people can succumb
[00:19:03] to it.
[00:19:06] But with these defections, Erdoğan's party gains positions it
[00:19:10] did not win in elections, how can the opposition defend
[00:19:13] the citizens' choice from such a transfer
[00:19:16] of power?
[00:19:21] You are asking very justified questions: first of all,
[00:19:25] we must document these illegal pressures and
[00:19:28] challenge them in courts and in parliament. Secondly, we must
[00:19:31] strengthen accountability towards the public. Voters deserve
[00:19:35] to know why an elected mayor changes political
[00:19:37] affiliation, what reasons, pressures, interests or
[00:19:41] benefits influence that decision. Thirdly, we need
[00:19:44] institutional reform that will protect municipalities and
[00:19:48] elected officials from arbitrary arrests and detention
[00:19:51] before trial. Such a way of imprisoning people creates
[00:19:55] an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty. Finally,
[00:19:57] political parties and politicians can win
[00:20:01] and lose, but citizens have the right to elect their local government,
[00:20:04] central government and their representatives.
[00:20:15] We see that the circumstances are somewhat different in Turkey than in
[00:20:19] Serbia, when I compare it to Serbia, we only have one
[00:20:22] municipality led by the opposition, while all other municipalities and
[00:20:26] cities are governed by the ruling party or its coalition
[00:20:29] partners, but in Turkey you have arrests and court
[00:20:32] proceedings, how much do they affect your party's ability to
[00:20:36] resist?
[00:20:52] First of all, Turkey is a large country, our citizens believe in
[00:20:56] democracy, not just in words or theory, but they show it through
[00:21:00] personal participation in elections. High voter turnout in Turkish elections
[00:21:03] confirms this. I will give you an example. Ekrem
[00:21:07] İmamoğlu was elected mayor of Istanbul
[00:21:10] in the 2019 elections, he is now in
[00:21:13] prison. In those elections, he won with a narrow margin
[00:21:16] of 16,000 votes, but that provoked
[00:21:20] anger or dissatisfaction, so he had to face
[00:21:23] repeat elections, in which the difference grew from
[00:21:26] 16,000 to around 8,000 votes. These
[00:21:29] are significant results and clear decisions by citizens. In the last
[00:21:33] local elections in 2024,
[00:21:36] Ekrem İmamoğlu again won in Istanbul with an even larger
[00:21:39] margin, more than a million votes. This shows
[00:21:43] that, although the ruling party has many advantages, voters and
[00:21:46] citizens of Turkey resolutely want to choose for themselves who they want to see
[00:21:50] in power. Investigations, arrests, and such an atmosphere
[00:21:53] of chaos can scare some people. However, our
[00:21:57] political leadership, especially the party president Ozgur
[00:22:00] Ezel, a key founder and driving force of our party,
[00:22:03] travels the country and organizes rallies since the arrest
[00:22:06] of the mayor of Istanbul. He held more than 120
[00:22:10] rallies across Turkey, he visited every city, every
[00:22:13] place. He went to suburban areas to first
[00:22:17] listen to the people and citizens, heard their
[00:22:20] spoke with them and addressed them. That energy
[00:22:24] and mobilization are yielding results. People are aware of this
[00:22:27] injustice and therefore support our party. Our party was also
[00:22:31] founded thanks to that support. Many people
[00:22:34] have applied for membership. Now we have about 700,000
[00:22:37] members, and the party was founded only a few months ago, at the end of
[00:22:41] July. In addition, citizens of a country with 86
[00:22:45] million inhabitants generously donated money
[00:22:48] to our party so that we could persevere in the political struggle and be the voice
[00:22:52] of people who are fed up with this system as a whole.
[00:22:56] Mr. Bilici, thank you for speaking to
[00:22:58] N1.
[00:23:12] 10 PM. Next up is the daily review and
[00:23:15] the latest information. I wish you a pleasant
[00:23:18] evening.
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[00:30:00] And all who think that without Europe we can do
[00:30:04] something alone are very wrong. After
[00:30:07] all, my colleague Marinka Tepić spoke about a special
[00:30:11] prosecutor for fighting corruption among high-ranking officials with the prosecution
[00:30:14] police 10 years ago, and
[00:30:18] seven years ago she wrote, together with
[00:30:21] people whose field it is, a law that we proposed to the
[00:30:25] assembly, I don't even know how many times. Today
[00:30:28] everyone talks about it, today everyone talks about the law
[00:30:32] on the origin of property, which we also propose for I don't know how many years, that those who
[00:30:36] stole money, and for whom we cannot
[00:30:39] prove criminal offenses, that they prove where they got it from, so that it
[00:30:43] becomes part of that
[00:30:47] fund for the return of plundered money that we will
[00:30:50] create. European Serbia is
[00:30:53] a summary word for that better life. It
[00:30:56] implies an ordered state with reduced corruption.