PAKISTANTV — broadcast
20260806 020000 UTC
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[00:00:00] of course is very high number, those incredible efforts made by
[00:00:03] Pakistan and in particular by his excellency prime
[00:00:06] minister.
[00:00:34] Good morning,
[00:00:35] a assalomu alaikum, you're watching Pakistan TV, with the news
[00:00:39] of headlines for this hour, I'm farwa
[00:00:41] Fayaz,
[00:01:01] US president Donald Trump says he prefers a deal with Iran
[00:01:05] over military action, but warns that force remains an
[00:01:09] option if diplomacy
[00:01:10] fails.
[00:01:17] Iran and Oman agree
[00:01:18] on route for ships transiting
[00:01:20] the straight
[00:01:20] of hormos. The nations are putting the final touches on
[00:01:24] arrangements for jointly managing the
[00:01:31] in of passage. Prime Minister
[00:01:35] Shahbas Sharif says Pakistan continues its sincere efforts to promote
[00:01:39] peace in the region and
[00:01:41] a highly values its close and brotherly relations with the Islamic
[00:01:44] Republic of
[00:01:46] a Iran.
[00:01:51] Iranian president Masud
[00:01:53] of Pesishiya described supreme leader Mushtaba Khaminai as a
[00:01:56] major source of strength for the country while noting that
[00:02:00] communication with him is currently very
[00:02:05] of difficult.
[00:02:10] Israeli strikes killed one person while two Israeli
[00:02:14] soldiers were killed in an explosion inside a booby trapped
[00:02:18] building in southern Lebanon a mid
[00:02:20] of ongoing talks aimed implementing a cease
[00:02:23] fire.
[00:02:29] a
[00:02:34] of
[00:02:39] of US president Donald Trump has
[00:02:43] said he would rather reach deal with Iran then resort to
[00:02:47] of military action
[00:02:49] of while a warning that the use of force remains an
[00:02:51] a option if diplomacy fails. Speaking at event
[00:02:55] in Las Vegas, Donald Trump
[00:02:58] of
[00:03:00] of
[00:03:01] of of said his administration had been prepared. to launch the biggest attack since World War II, but paused those plans
[00:03:05] after Iranian officials requested talks.
[00:03:09] The US president claimed Iran reached out saying, please don't do
[00:03:12] it, let's talk. He said direct discussions are
[00:03:16] continuing between US and Iranian representatives.
[00:03:20] Donald Trump said his
[00:03:21] in administration is pursuing diplomacy, but stressed that military
[00:03:25] action remains on the table if negotiations
[00:03:28] fail. Iran publicly denied Trump's
[00:03:32] of claim that it initiated contact, independent confirmation
[00:03:36] of of the alleged communication has not been
[00:03:38] provided.
[00:03:43] Iran and Oman have agreed
[00:03:44] on route for ships passing through the straight of hormos and are finalizing
[00:03:48] arrangements for
[00:03:50] of jointly managing the passage. Iran's state news agency,
[00:03:54] Irna, citing foreign ministry spokesperson Ismail Bai
[00:03:57] reported that the two sides had.
[00:04:00] of on the geographical coordinates
[00:04:02] of the route.
[00:04:04] Buk added that the joint statement, outlining the main
[00:04:07] considerations and points of agreement was in the final stages of
[00:04:11] review and drafting, provided certain third parties did not
[00:04:15] obstruct the process. According to the report,
[00:04:19] told journalists that talks with Oman were progressing, but
[00:04:22] cautioned that even if an agreement was reached, it would not
[00:04:26] necessarily mean the straight of Formos had become safe for all
[00:04:30] vessels transiting the
[00:04:32] of waterway, he said that the factors making the straight insecure
[00:04:36] still existed, blaming the united states naval
[00:04:39] in blockade and what he described as other aggressive and threatening
[00:04:43] actions against Iran and its
[00:04:46] of
[00:04:48] a interests. Prime Minister Shahbas Sharif has said
[00:04:52] Pakistan will continue its sincere efforts for peace in the
[00:04:55] region
[00:04:56] in a meeting with an Iranian delegation led by the minister of
[00:05:00] industry, mining and commerce,
[00:05:04] said, Pakistan sayid highly
[00:05:05] minister values Muhammad Atabak, the its prime relations
[00:05:08] with its best neighbor and brotherly country, the
[00:05:11] a of Islamic Republic of Iran. Prime Minister Sharif
[00:05:14] said that he had a good discussion with Iranian President Dr. Masud
[00:05:18] Pisishgan recently regarding the establishment of lasting peace in
[00:05:22] the region and further promotion of bilateral relations between
[00:05:26] Pakistan and Iran, especially trade. And the
[00:05:30] premier hoped that with continued efforts, the target of
[00:05:34] bilateral trade of 10 billion dollars set by the leadership of both
[00:05:37] countries will be achieved, adding that both countries will benefit from
[00:05:41] the promotion. of trade, especially food and agricultural
[00:05:45] products. Shahar Sharif conveyed his best wishes to
[00:05:49] Iran's supreme leader ayatullah Sayyad Mushtaba Husseini
[00:05:52] Khamenei and President Dr. Masud
[00:05:55] Bizishian. Iranian minister thanked Pakistan for
[00:05:59] the warm welcome and wonderful hospitality. He
[00:06:02] saluted Pakistani leadership and people for Pakistan's sincere
[00:06:06] diplomatic efforts for peace in the region and for expressing
[00:06:10] solidarity with Iran, adding that. Iran is keen to further
[00:06:14] expand economic and trade relations with
[00:06:16] Pakistan.
[00:06:22] Iranian president Masud Pesishian described supreme leader Mushtaba
[00:06:26] Khaminai as a major source of strength for the country while
[00:06:29] noting that communication with him is currently very
[00:06:32] difficult. Speaking an interview broadcast by Iranian state
[00:06:36] television to mark two years since he became president.
[00:06:40] Bisishya said that openly. raising issues with the supreme
[00:06:44] leader helps officials find common ground more
[00:06:47] easily. He described Hamini as an
[00:06:50] exceptional figure, saying he had been impressed by his ethics,
[00:06:54] humility and
[00:06:55] reasoning.
[00:07:01] Those were the top stories for this hour. For more details and live streaming
[00:07:05] the channel, you can visit our website pakistantv.com.
[00:07:09] It's goodbye from the news studio.
[00:07:46] From the heart of South Asia to the cross roads of central Asia, from the turbulent, Middle
[00:07:49] East and North Africa to the power corridors the west where narratives
[00:07:53] collide, perspectives matter and stories connect. This is beyond
[00:07:57] borders and I am Umar Khalid B. During the course the show we'll take you into a world
[00:08:01] that we consider without borders and boundaries and discuss issues that are
[00:08:05] extremely pertinent in this changing 21st century scenario. Now
[00:08:09] we'll begin with the top stories the day or as we call them region lines.
[00:08:16] We start from the middle east where US president Donald Trump wants that Iran would
[00:08:20] be hit very hard unless the strategic state of hormos is reopened very
[00:08:24] soon. Meanwhile US central command says the southern
[00:08:28] route through the straight of Hormus remains open to all commercial
[00:08:32] vessels.
[00:08:39] Moving to South Asia where Yasal Kashmir is observed
[00:08:43] today to mark the seventh anniversary of India's abrogation of articles
[00:08:46] 370 and 35A the Indian Constitution.
[00:08:50] Pakistan reaffirms its unwavoring solidarity with the people of Indian illegally
[00:08:54] occupied Jammu and Kashmir on Yahsal Kashmir and pays tribute
[00:08:58] to their courage, resilience and commitment to their just struggle for the
[00:09:02] realization the inalienable right to self
[00:09:04] determination.
[00:09:12] Now coming to Iran US conflict, diplomacy might be
[00:09:16] gathering pace on
[00:09:17] day 159, but Washington and Tehran are still telling two very
[00:09:20] different stories. President Trump claims talks are progressing, Iran insists
[00:09:24] that
[00:09:24] it is negotiating only with Oman, with hormos largely closed, red sea
[00:09:28] attacks continuing and fresh US threats on the table, can
[00:09:32] this be called genuine diplomacy or is it another brief pause before
[00:09:35] escalation? discuss that in detail, we've been joined by two guests
[00:09:39] and they are first timers for us at least, let me them to one by one
[00:09:43] Dr. Thomas PM Barnet who is geopolitical strategist joins
[00:09:47] us from Ohio in the US. Thank you very much Dr. Barnet to have joined us. Our
[00:09:51] second guest is Dr. Mattheo Mohammed Franzane. He is a professor and chair
[00:09:55] of history northeastern Illinois University. Also joins us from Utracht.
[00:09:59] Thank you very much Dr. Mateo to have joined us as well. We'll begin with Dr.
[00:10:03] Thomas. Dr. Barnet president Trump says discussions with Iran are
[00:10:07] going very nicely. Tehran denies holding direct talks with
[00:10:10] Washington. Are both sides. genuinely moving towards
[00:10:13] any kind of negotiation process, or are these
[00:10:17] public claims mainly aimed at controlling narrative.
[00:10:21] Trump has also repeatedly threatened a massive attack only to pull back. as he has
[00:10:25] done recently, including last weekend after gulf allies reportedly warned
[00:10:29] about Iranian retaliation. does this pressure strengthen
[00:10:33] Washington's negotiating position in your point of view, or does it make
[00:10:37] American threats less credible than time, each time rather
[00:10:40] that an Iranian attack is planned and
[00:10:44] then is cancelled at the last moment? well, I
[00:10:48] see your first question about whether the negotiations are they
[00:10:52] real or not, I think the key thing to... remember on the Iranian
[00:10:55] side is that the leadership cannot be seen
[00:10:59] domestically or in the wider muslim world
[00:11:03] as rushing into the arms the Americans under pressure, so they
[00:11:07] will deny direct talks, they'll emphasize that they're only dealing
[00:11:11] with intermediaries like Oman, they'll insist that
[00:11:15] there's no negotiation under fire, that's
[00:11:18] classic narrative control, they're protecting their political
[00:11:21] flank while they explore options,
[00:11:25] reality in between is that both stories can be true at once,
[00:11:29] there may not be any formal face to face negotiations, but
[00:11:32] there are clearly messages moving through mediators and both
[00:11:36] sides are testing what a deal on hormoves
[00:11:40] and the nuclear issue might look like, so are we in genuine
[00:11:44] negotiations yet? not in the sense of diplomats sitting down
[00:11:48] with the comprehensive package on the table, we're in the
[00:11:51] pre-negotiation phase and we're kind of stuck there back.
[00:11:55] channels, trial balloons, public spins, whatever
[00:11:58] President Trump tweets most recently,
[00:12:02] but from a strategic perspective, it's
[00:12:05] important, the important thing to remember is that the
[00:12:08] United States is keeping channels open, at least and putting diplomatic
[00:12:12] track on the table, that preserves American
[00:12:16] leverage for when this actually moves from narrative
[00:12:19] warfare to actual bargaining, as for the
[00:12:23] threats of massive... strikes, what we're seeing is
[00:12:27] Trump trying to use military signaling as leverage,
[00:12:31] but he is bumping up against the credibility uh limits
[00:12:35] there, on the one hand, repeated threats followed by
[00:12:38] visible shows of force, they remind everyone that
[00:12:42] the United States remains overwhelmingly capable and
[00:12:46] can escalate when and if it chooses, that kind of pressure,
[00:12:50] especially when coordinated with Gulf allies, does put
[00:12:54] Iran and... regional actors on notice, you can create
[00:12:58] openings for diplomacy because nobody really wants to test
[00:13:02] how far Washington Trump specifically wants to
[00:13:05] go. On the other hand, when you threaten massive attacks and then
[00:13:09] pull back again and again, you start to fall into this credibility
[00:13:13] trap. Each cancelled strike teaches Terran in
[00:13:17] the wider world that US red lines are
[00:13:20] movable, that domestic politics and allied concerns can
[00:13:23] veto. military action and that a certain amount of
[00:13:26] bringsmanship might be tolerable, so over
[00:13:30] time that can encourage Iran's
[00:13:33] escalated strategy, raising
[00:13:37] costs through hor moves and regional disruption,
[00:13:41] assuming all along that Washington will ultimately choose restraint rather
[00:13:45] than full scale war, so I think
[00:13:48] it, it it helps to keep the pressure on, but it
[00:13:51] does uh fall into that boy pride
[00:13:55] wolf trap uh and Trump has that
[00:13:58] reputation, the acronim taco, trump always chickens
[00:14:02] out that dogs him in these kinds of
[00:14:05] negotiations. well, it's a complicated
[00:14:09] situation to say the least and with the different statements that eminate and the two
[00:14:13] and fro, let's hope some kind of sensible
[00:14:17] outcome comes out of all of this and the talks finally
[00:14:20] resume and of course also these talks between Oman and Iran
[00:14:24] come to some kind of fusion Dr. Matazane, Trump says Iran
[00:14:28] must formally give up any path to nuclear weapon and wants that
[00:14:32] it will be hit very hard if it withdraws from talks. now after months
[00:14:36] of warfare and contradictory American statements, would Iran trust
[00:14:39] any new agreement offered by this administration? also
[00:14:42] our country, Pakistan, Qatar and Omar are all trying to
[00:14:46] secure a date and venue for future talks. Given Iran's
[00:14:50] present position, in your point of view, could Pakistani mediation finally bring
[00:14:55] Tehran and Washington into the same room and what would Iran demand
[00:14:58] first? We are
[00:15:01] truly in historic times right now, as far as the
[00:15:05] Iranian US relations are concerned, as far
[00:15:09] as the Iranian postering for having
[00:15:12] more power than anyone anyone wanted to
[00:15:15] have Iran since 47
[00:15:19] years ago, so in that respect and in that
[00:15:23] context this is
[00:15:24] a his historic moment for all parties involved, including the
[00:15:28] Persian Arab countries, including state of Israel, and
[00:15:32] including the United States as the major patron
[00:15:36] the... ladder as far
[00:15:39] as nuclear weapons
[00:15:42] program, we still don't know if Iran
[00:15:46] wants or is or has
[00:15:48] considered the idea of
[00:15:52] nuclear weapon, this has been
[00:15:55] an issue for some time now, this is nothing
[00:15:58] new, and when I hear Donald Trump saying that they don't want
[00:16:02] Iran to have nuclear weapon, I think pretty much the entire
[00:16:06] world would agree with that, and in some aspect uh
[00:16:09] Iran has said many times and
[00:16:12] there was a fatwa or religious decree issued
[00:16:15] by the now
[00:16:17] assassinated ayatullah Khamenei, the supreme leader of
[00:16:21] Iran that Iran would never want to have
[00:16:24] a weapon of mass destruction such as nuclear bomb,
[00:16:28] so Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons
[00:16:32] program. Iran, however, and rightly so, based on
[00:16:36] the idea that
[00:16:36] it is signatory to the MPT, the
[00:16:40] non-proliferation treaty that goes back some
[00:16:44] time, Iran can have nuclear program for
[00:16:48] peaceful means, and that was the base of how the
[00:16:51] P5 plus one, the nuclear
[00:16:55] agreement one 1.0, we can call it, was
[00:16:58] signed back in 2015, but Donald Trump as
[00:17:02] unconventional as he has been since the beginning of his first
[00:17:05] term as the American president cancelled that
[00:17:09] and we are in the mess that we are now, now they doubled down on
[00:17:13] this idea, somebody somewhere in some room had suggested
[00:17:17] to the administration that a US-Israeli joint
[00:17:21] air operation can bring the regime or the
[00:17:24] theocratic Islamic Republic to its knees, and that has
[00:17:28] proven to be not so, and
[00:17:32] now we have a ceasefire based on the need that the
[00:17:36] United States saw, that it had to enter into a
[00:17:39] ceasefire, because if it
[00:17:43] didn't have the need to engage
[00:17:45] with developing country such as Iran, it wouldn't have, so
[00:17:49] the I would be, I would say it's a safe assumption that
[00:17:53] Iran entered and US entered into this cease fire, and I think
[00:17:57] you mentioned that at the top the hour and your other guests
[00:18:01] had mentioned that there is this lack of
[00:18:04] genuine honesty.
[00:18:07] that for all intents and purposes, the United States has
[00:18:11] demonstrated that it cannot be trusted because what I just
[00:18:15] mentioned the JCPO was canceled for no good reason, no reason was
[00:18:19] given for, it was something that Donald Trump did because he
[00:18:23] wanted his own name apparently a possible peace
[00:18:26] agreement with Iran and that has turned out to be disaster for him
[00:18:30] and very very fact Dr. the fact remains that this is just not about the
[00:18:34] nuclear issue, it is much much deeper than this there
[00:18:37] is a whole control the state of hormones and of course uh
[00:18:41] how things are going to move along as far as you know
[00:18:45] the waterways are concerned. coming to you, Dr.
[00:18:48] Thomas P. M. Barnet, CNN reports and I'm quoting
[00:18:52] CNN because this was told by them and of course then it was shared by many
[00:18:56] other media handles. CNN says that the US
[00:19:00] has used nearly 80% of its third interceptors
[00:19:03] amongst others. Now about half its patriot interceptors as well and
[00:19:07] substantial share of its stomach hawks, although the white house disputes that
[00:19:11] account. could depleted stock files explain why Trump repeatedly
[00:19:14] steps back from major new attacks? what's your
[00:19:16] take? well, when you look at those
[00:19:20] CNN numbers, you're really seeing the downside
[00:19:24] of a long, high intensity technology
[00:19:28] heavy war. if the United States has burned through something
[00:19:32] like 80% of its fad interceptors and half
[00:19:36] its patriots and chunk the tomahawks, then you've turned
[00:19:40] some of your most precious slow to replace
[00:19:44] munitions into a constraint on future
[00:19:47] action, so not just a tool of pressure uh, but
[00:19:51] a tool of constraint. does that help explain why
[00:19:55] president Trump keeps stepping back from major new attacks? it can
[00:19:59] factor into the calculus definitely any us president has to think not
[00:20:03] just about today's strike package against
[00:20:06] Iran, "That president has will be concerned and always
[00:20:10] worried about other contingencies against other adversaries around the
[00:20:13] world. The Pentagon is clearly warning that rebuilding
[00:20:17] these stock piles is a multi-year project, so the
[00:20:21] more you deplete those interceptors and precision weapons,
[00:20:25] without clear end game, the more you risk eroding overall
[00:20:29] readiness and flexibility. But I wouldn't
[00:20:32] reduce Trump's decisions to inventory charts
[00:20:36] alone. He's not..." a numbers guy like along those
[00:20:40] lines, he's also listening to very nervous golf
[00:20:44] allies, he's watching global markets very intently, he's
[00:20:47] trying to keep diplomatic track alone. so stock
[00:20:51] pile depletion amplifies those other pressures
[00:20:55] and it definitely makes large scale escalation look more
[00:20:58] expensive and less sustainable and thus those threats of
[00:21:02] massive retaliation less
[00:21:03] credible there are
[00:21:07] threats of massive retaliation and there are threats of the war
[00:21:11] starting any moment that is why some kind of
[00:21:13] a deescalation or a process that could lead to deescalation is extremely
[00:21:17] important.
[00:21:20] president says Iran does not want to expand the war and considers the June memorandum,
[00:21:24] the memorandum that was signed by both parties with Pakistan as
[00:21:27] mediator, central to any kind of future
[00:21:31] relations. How much freedom does he have to negotiate when powerful
[00:21:35] hardliners remain deeply suspicious of Washington? Also, Iran has
[00:21:39] strengthened ties with Iraq, discussed safer oil passage with Baghdad and has
[00:21:42] threatened vessels using routes it considers illegal. At the same
[00:21:46] time it has cancelled plan strikes on Ukraine also after receiving and
[00:21:50] apology, does this suggest that Tehran is using some kind of
[00:21:53] calibrated pressure technique rather than seeking an
[00:21:56] uncontrolled regional war, how do you see the
[00:21:59] situation? well, let me answer the first
[00:22:03] question and hopefully I'll remember the second one as well, the first question
[00:22:06] ask that you ask is about Dr. Prisan and his
[00:22:10] administration in Tehran, and you're absolutely right, Dr.
[00:22:14] Position, as far as we know, without being in the
[00:22:17] know-how the... way the Islamic Republic
[00:22:21] runs things, but we can guess historically how it's doing
[00:22:25] things, does not really have the power to
[00:22:28] do things that regular, quote
[00:22:32] unquote normal democratic
[00:22:35] administration, republic can have, right
[00:22:39] now Iran has been
[00:22:41] factionalized for some time now, it's not
[00:22:45] only this war that has brought it to this point, this
[00:22:48] factionalization. existed after the Iran, Iraq
[00:22:52] war was over in 1988 and continued, but it was
[00:22:56] mostly concerned about domestic policy, but to a certain
[00:23:00] extent for the past 20 years or so, or certainly after
[00:23:04] September 11th, it involved international policy and
[00:23:08] doctrines and the defense doctrine as well, the
[00:23:11] IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary guard score has the
[00:23:15] ultimate power for the defense in Iran, although Iran has
[00:23:19] regular. standing army as well, but because the
[00:23:22] 90% 95% the defense industries controlled by the
[00:23:26] IRGC, they're the ones that make the call and the
[00:23:30] difficulty and the complexity of this for some people to
[00:23:33] understand, understandably is because the
[00:23:36] IRGC is highly ideologically
[00:23:39] driven, there is social justice sort
[00:23:43] of an understanding to how they want to do their work, and that starts with the
[00:23:47] defense the Palestinians, and the defense
[00:23:51] the shia lebanese that hisbullah
[00:23:54] controls in lebanon and hence you have the Israel lebanon
[00:23:58] war that makes it even more complicated so as far
[00:24:01] as Dr. posicion is
[00:24:05] concerned he can say whatever he wants but all for all intents and
[00:24:08] purposes from what we can see he's not really any position to
[00:24:12] make any decisions your second question if i
[00:24:16] remember correctly is the idea of Iran and Iraq
[00:24:20] entering into a new phase the relationship, but the newly
[00:24:23] young prime minister that's been
[00:24:25] elected, people need to realize
[00:24:29] that Iran and Iraq have had a cultural relationship for over
[00:24:33] 2500 years, it goes back before Islam and
[00:24:37] it is further strengthened back in 9th
[00:24:41] century when the prophet's grandson was killed and Iran effectively became
[00:24:45] a shit state in 1501, hence that
[00:24:48] relationship has created an environment between Iran
[00:24:52] and Iraq that Iran can pretty much has an
[00:24:56] open hand, especially after George W. Bush decided to
[00:25:00] overthrow the Saddam government and and it effectively
[00:25:04] handed the entire sheate politics of
[00:25:07] Iraq to Iran and that's what we're seeing right now, I don't see any
[00:25:11] indication or any reason how that could change, and
[00:25:15] as Iranian Shiites and Shiits around the world
[00:25:19] we're commemorate. the 40th day the marridom of
[00:25:23] imam hussein a couple of days ago the
[00:25:27] Iranian foreign minister
[00:25:29] made point to go to karabala in
[00:25:32] Iraq and have a showing and have kind of support
[00:25:36] that makes everybody nervous when it comes to
[00:25:39] transnational relationship between Iran
[00:25:43] and and Iraq that is true but there's also the
[00:25:46] Ukrainian angle but we'll discuss this a bit later Dr. Barnet.
[00:25:50] Iran and Oman are discussing new middle corridor, Iran is
[00:25:54] potentially saying that it wants to control incoming ships and Oman wants to manage
[00:25:58] outgoing traffic. Could this provide a workable compromise or would
[00:26:02] it? actively give Tehran unacceptable authority over an international
[00:26:05] waterway, also only eight vessels are now crossing hormos each day compared to
[00:26:09] roughly 130 to 140 that used to happen before this
[00:26:13] conflict began. Sendcom says that the southern route remains open,
[00:26:17] Iran rejects any route it has not approved. Who
[00:26:20] actually controls the passage through the straight of hormos at this very
[00:26:24] point? Well, what
[00:26:28] Iran and Oman are talking about with this middle corridor.
[00:26:33] is attempt to turn a very dangerous choke point back into
[00:26:36] something more predictable, without simply restoring the
[00:26:40] old status quo. Under the emerging framework
[00:26:44] inbound ships would move through landing monitored
[00:26:47] by Iran, outbound traffic would be managed by
[00:26:51] Oman, and both sides would share so-called
[00:26:55] service fees tied to security and environmental
[00:26:59] protection. Could that be a workable compromise? the short term,
[00:27:03] sure, because the world's priority right now is reopening hor
[00:27:07] moves and lowering the risk of miscalculation and
[00:27:11] and escalation into larger war. if Oman acts as a
[00:27:14] trusted manager on the outbound side, and if the US and
[00:27:18] his partners quietly help oversee implementation, I
[00:27:22] can imagine a temporary arrangement that restores traffic and gives everybody
[00:27:26] enough time to negotiate something more durable, but there's
[00:27:30] a strategic downside here, "if the deal is written
[00:27:34] a way that effectively ratifies Iran's authority to
[00:27:37] control, then you're edging
[00:27:41] away from the traditional idea of an open international
[00:27:44] waterway and toward a more Iran-centric
[00:27:48] maritime regime, and for Washington that's that's a red line, any
[00:27:52] temporary fix has to be framed this crisis
[00:27:56] management, not a permanent transfer of
[00:27:59] power to Iran, where Iran basically..." gets to
[00:28:03] beato in the future what happens in the straight of hor
[00:28:06] moves, in terms the ships going through
[00:28:10] um right now much diminished from the normal
[00:28:13] pattern obviously on the US
[00:28:16] sidecom is pretty clear the southern route
[00:28:20] running through Omani Waters is open and
[00:28:24] American forces have helped more than a thousand vessels transit that corridor
[00:28:28] over the past three months. That's Washington's
[00:28:31] way of saying. "this remains an international waterway, we're still
[00:28:35] guaranteeing freedom of navigation. on the Iranian
[00:28:39] side, the revolutionary guard has used the war to rewrite the
[00:28:42] rules. tanker traffic has collapsed from
[00:28:46] 130, 140 ships a day, to tiny fraction
[00:28:50] of that now, and many the vessels that do move are operating under
[00:28:54] government to government arrangements or ad-hawk deals
[00:28:58] with Iranian authorities. teran insists that any
[00:29:02] route. not explicitly approved by Iran is
[00:29:05] illegitimate, and it backs that claim with checkpoints, with
[00:29:08] vetting, with selective harassment by its forces,
[00:29:12] so who controls Hormus today?
[00:29:15] legally, the straight is governed by international law and shared
[00:29:19] Omani Iranian territorial seas,
[00:29:23] practically Iran has successfully leveraged its
[00:29:26] geography and enable presence to become a gatekeeper, while
[00:29:30] the US and its partners keep a... lifeline open
[00:29:34] and try to prevent that game keeper role from hardening into something
[00:29:38] like permanent sovereignty over global energy
[00:29:42] flows. thank you so very much dr. thomas
[00:29:46] barn to have joined us, it was our first interaction, it was lovely to talk to you
[00:29:50] and hope we will be talking much more in the future as well, till next time and
[00:29:54] thank you again. dr. mathew mohammad, iran
[00:29:57] describes its talks with oman as positive, but it insists that they
[00:30:01] have nothing to do with United States is theran genuinely refusing
[00:30:05] direct engagement with the US or
[00:30:07] is omand quietly calling messages between both the sides also Iran
[00:30:11] says an agreement with Oman would not automatically reopen Horms and that
[00:30:15] US violations must first end what specific American
[00:30:18] action would Tehran need to see before it allows normal shipping to
[00:30:22] resume in this area? well what the Iranians
[00:30:26] i'm assuming would need to see is for the United
[00:30:29] States to honor the contract. that they
[00:30:33] signed and as I mentioned earlier, they're not very good at that,
[00:30:36] obviously they cancelled the JCPOA, and now they
[00:30:40] entered very hardly, a very, very hurried matter, they
[00:30:44] entered into an mou back in June
[00:30:47] 17th, and one the articles, I think is article number four or
[00:30:51] number five, does talk about Iran having some sense
[00:30:55] of control or being allowed to charge some sort of a
[00:30:58] fee that the...