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[00:00:02] of
[00:00:14] Hello
[00:00:14] of and welcome, you're watching Pakistan TV, we news
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[00:00:17] with Arias, let's head towards the
[00:00:22] of headlines. of
[00:00:22] of
[00:00:28] of
[00:00:45] US president Donald Trump announces deal to allow russian diesel to be
[00:00:49] immediately released to the
[00:00:50] of US of and global markets while Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky criticizes the
[00:00:54] dean as a gift to
[00:00:56] Putin.
[00:01:02] of of US president Donald Trump urges Ukraine to replace President Vladimir
[00:01:05] Zelensky with the new leader while criticizing him over strikes on Russian oil
[00:01:09] refineries that contribute to high diesel prices before
[00:01:12] election.
[00:01:18] Russian president Vladimir Putin conveys
[00:01:20] of Iran's position a
[00:01:21] of possible resolution of its conflict with the United States to US President
[00:01:25] Donald Trump in coordination with Iranian President Masushkian as
[00:01:29] Moscow seeks to. facilitate diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict and promote a
[00:01:32] peaceful settlement to dialogue and
[00:01:34] negotiations.
[00:01:39] of
[00:01:45] of Oman condemns
[00:01:49] of attacks on Saudi Arabia and King Khalid
[00:01:51] of International Airports reaff solidarity with the kingdom and rejects all
[00:01:55] actions that threaten its security and safety of civilians.
[00:02:02] of Several thousand pro
[00:02:05] Palestinian protesters
[00:02:06] of marched through central London and Berlin. Calling for an end to Israeli
[00:02:10] strikes on gassah marsh has carried packards
[00:02:13] of reading and the genocide and free
[00:02:15] Palestine.
[00:02:21] Prime Minister Mohammad Shahbas Sharief and Azerbaijan President Ilham alive agreed to
[00:02:25] boost economic
[00:02:26] a investment and trade corporation by exchange views on regional and international.
[00:02:30] developments during a telephone conversation and refm their commitment to
[00:02:33] strengthening bilateral ties across multiple
[00:02:36] sectors.
[00:02:42] deputy prime minister
[00:02:43] of sar refuse
[00:02:47] of of preparations for the eighth pakistan joint ministerial commission to strengthen bilateral cooperation and ensure tangable
[00:02:52] of outcomes.
[00:02:53] of the united
[00:02:57] nations human rights officer just india to released people
[00:03:01] arbitrary detained during protests against electoral
[00:03:04] misconduct expressing concern over mas detentions in New
[00:03:08] of Delhi.
[00:03:09] of
[00:03:54] of of
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[00:04:11] I'm Natalia Baker, signing off, take
[00:04:13] of care. of of
[00:04:24] a
[00:04:31] of
[00:04:41] of a
[00:04:51] Assalomu alaikum and welcome to Perspective. Regional tensions are
[00:04:56] in of escalating, putting critical infrastructure, maritime
[00:04:57] of security and regional stability at risk. Hothy attacks on Saudi
[00:05:01] Arabia have raised fresh security concerns, while the strategic
[00:05:05] Babel Mandap straight and the straight of
[00:05:06] of Hurmus
[00:05:07] in remains central to wider regional tensions with the US
[00:05:10] of mid-term elections approaching. President Donald Trump is also
[00:05:14] facing growing political pressure as the Iran conflict
[00:05:18] disrupts global energy markets and raises questions
[00:05:22] about the costs and consequences of his policies.
[00:05:25] How could the evolving security situation affect his party's
[00:05:29] electoral prospects and shape Washington's next
[00:05:32] moves? Pakistan has strongly condemned the attacks on Saudi
[00:05:36] Arabia and reaffirmed its commitment to Saudi sovereinity and
[00:05:40] security under the Macca joint. defense agreement with
[00:05:44] Saudi Arabia and Turkey, as Islamabad
[00:05:47] continues to call for peace and deescalation, what is the
[00:05:51] shifting security landscape mean for the
[00:05:54] region? In our second segment, we examine Trump's
[00:05:58] admin the Donald Trump administration's expanding immigration
[00:06:02] crackdown, including the suspension of green card processing
[00:06:06] for major technological companies and investigations into
[00:06:10] leading US universities. As Washington tightans
[00:06:14] scrutiny the skilled foreign workers and international
[00:06:17] research, questions are mounting over the future of
[00:06:21] global talent, mobility and America's
[00:06:24] competitive competitiveness
[00:06:28] in the technology sector. All this and more on perspective
[00:06:32] today, we have with us Hashamul umesi
[00:06:35] who is senior advisor
[00:06:38] on Yemen and on from
[00:06:42] European institute of peace, we also have with
[00:06:46] us Paul Frich senior fellow middle east institute Switzerland,
[00:06:49] executive in Resident Geneva Center for Security Policy drawing
[00:06:53] us. A little later on we'll also have other guests during
[00:06:57] the course the program. Welcome to the program
[00:07:01] Hisham, when we look at Babel Mandap, for
[00:07:04] example, the fact that it's become a critical point in this
[00:07:08] regional, what strategic objectives are
[00:07:12] the... how these sort of pursuing by
[00:07:14] threatening maritime traffic and of
[00:07:18] course what it means for this vital international
[00:07:22] shipping route corridor and and what are the implications in your
[00:07:26] opinion for regional security and also
[00:07:30] what it means as far as global security at this
[00:07:33] time
[00:07:39] is want to exert pressure on the red sea. on
[00:07:43] maritime trade to get this economic and political
[00:07:47] leverage, they understand very well that the world will only pay attention to
[00:07:51] them, if they make noise outside the border of yemen, yemen has been dubbed for
[00:07:55] the longest time for the past 12 years the conflict as the forgotten
[00:07:58] war, and to get some attention, to get some
[00:08:01] recognition and to get that
[00:08:03] stick, they needed to attack all
[00:08:07] these ships in the red sea making that economic impact on
[00:08:11] global trade, but also threatening regional countries as well
[00:08:14] because they ship lot of oil through that straight, so it's
[00:08:18] critical for their countries, for the stability their countries, and
[00:08:22] this is one the reasons why they also in the same way are threatening Saudi
[00:08:25] Arabia the past few weeks by attacking
[00:08:29] infrastructure within Riyadh, within other parts of Saudi Arabia, attacking
[00:08:33] aramco, attacking, I remember the electricity grid as
[00:08:36] well, and they'll continue to do that because that's how they raised the cost
[00:08:40] the conflict, they learned that from the Iranians and that's
[00:08:44] how they kind of create this
[00:08:47] calculus where they can extract concessions, not just from
[00:08:51] Saudi, but also from regional and international
[00:08:53] stakeholders. fair
[00:08:56] enough, um, we also have with us
[00:08:59] Paul, but before we go to him,
[00:09:03] in terms of in terms the huti's actions,
[00:09:07] Hisham, when we look at
[00:09:08] you know Yemen's internal conflict and and the political...
[00:09:12] landscape so to speak, how have years of
[00:09:15] political,
[00:09:17] you know, fragmentation, struggle for power, failure to reach a
[00:09:21] durable settlement, enabled the hauties to
[00:09:24] consolidate their authority and expand their regional
[00:09:28] ambition, because we know that internally also the
[00:09:31] situation and the fact that you know they've been able to do this, how
[00:09:35] how do you look at that in terms of what's happening now and the
[00:09:39] internal situation, that's action next. question, this is what I've been
[00:09:43] saying for the for the past 10 years is that the
[00:09:47] houties owe their rights to the
[00:09:50] Iranian support, but also to the fragmentation and the division within
[00:09:54] Yemen, it's it's an inversely proportional
[00:09:57] relationship where the weaker the yemani factions are, the
[00:10:01] stronger the the hutis grow, they managed to exploit all those
[00:10:04] divisions, the instability, the failure the state
[00:10:08] since since 2010, since the uprisings that
[00:10:11] accompanied the... spring and they managed to
[00:10:15] hijack the state and by doing so they entrenched
[00:10:19] themselves a position of power and throughout the past 10 years
[00:10:23] the conflict since 2015. "they managed to
[00:10:27] expand across Yemen, moving all the way to the west
[00:10:30] coast, and that's what you're hearing a lot of fighting now, for instance in Babel Mandab, in the
[00:10:34] Red Sea, because they want additional territories, but they owe that
[00:10:38] as well because the internal fragmentation, and I've
[00:10:42] always said if you want to defeat the hoothies, you need to
[00:10:46] unify the Yemini factions led by the Yemini government, because only
[00:10:50] them can dislodge the hoothies from places like
[00:10:54] Damar, the central part of Yemen, but also the capital
[00:10:57] Sana, there needs to be a concerted effort backed by the regional international
[00:11:01] community, and luckily for the time being
[00:11:03] you have the saudis back in
[00:11:04] the Yemeni government supporting them, but ultimately this is a
[00:11:08] Yemeni Yemeni fight, this is not and I remember lot of people trying
[00:11:11] to pitch it as a Saudi versus Hothies fight, it was not
[00:11:15] never was, it was the Yemenis that wanted to take back the
[00:11:19] country from the Htes, but they also needed support from regional partners
[00:11:23] and our closest neighbor traditional. for the past 100 years have been Saudi Arabia and
[00:11:27] that's one the reasons why it was the Saudis that let the
[00:11:30] coalition that helped and attempting to restore
[00:11:34] the state in 2015, but
[00:11:37] but where do the how these actually derive
[00:11:41] authority within Yemen today? when you look at
[00:11:44] you know the fact that the main sources their political,
[00:11:47] financial, military power and and of course
[00:11:51] you how how do they use that to control territory? you
[00:11:55] in terms of trying to understand and also the fact that they
[00:11:58] they are able to somehow sustain their position
[00:12:01] right? yep, well one one the important things that
[00:12:05] lot of people need to understand is that the hutis did not spring into the scene just in the past
[00:12:09] 15 years, the hutis were there for the past thousand years, we
[00:12:13] had the imam a monarchy in yemen for the better part
[00:12:16] the past 1ous years, which was toppled in the
[00:12:20] 1960s, these are reminants of that
[00:12:23] regime that's in Yemen in the northern part the
[00:12:27] country and they managed to build their power over the
[00:12:31] past 25 years beginning into the 2000s and in
[00:12:35] 2004 they launched an offensive in the north part the
[00:12:38] country which led to six consecutive wars between 2004 and
[00:12:42] 2009 so the his actually existed there for hundreds of
[00:12:45] years but they managed capitalizing on the
[00:12:49] instability in 2010 2011 to expand
[00:12:53] their influence. and exploiting the in fighting between the
[00:12:57] various factions, tribal and government and military between the
[00:13:01] period of 2011 and 2015, to jump on the scene, hijack the
[00:13:05] state, take over the capital, take over other parts theman,
[00:13:09] one, two, they also ow their rise because the
[00:13:12] support that they've gotten, extensive support that they've gotten from Iran, they
[00:13:16] they got in financial support, they've gotten ballistic missiles, they've gotten cruise
[00:13:20] missiles, they've gotten drones, they've gotten lot of training, not just from Iran,
[00:13:24] they've got lot of training from hizbullah as well and there's a lot there
[00:13:28] actually IRGC officers on the ground on the
[00:13:32] battlefield as commanders directing the
[00:13:35] war in multiple frontlines in Yemen and that includes
[00:13:39] Hisballah and IRGC so they're getting lot of
[00:13:41] support and in terms
[00:13:44] of question of course they've
[00:13:48] managed to have that kind of support that then allows
[00:13:51] them to exert this kind of external '
[00:13:55] influence or extern, far beyond the territory,
[00:13:59] how dangerous is it when when this kind of a
[00:14:03] grouping can happen and and then and and then potentially
[00:14:07] have consequences outside a country's
[00:14:10] territory when we look at you in the light of this particular
[00:14:14] instance when we see the houtheis, extremely
[00:14:17] extremely concerning, you have to remember the past couple years sank
[00:14:21] or attacked close to 100 chips. and there it
[00:14:25] see, you're not talking about the conflict that is not contained within the borders of Yemen, you're talking
[00:14:29] about the conflict had a spillover effect, remember during the Gaza
[00:14:33] crisis, helutes wanted to jump into the fray trying to pitch
[00:14:36] themselves as the vanguard the Muslim, the Arab nation by attacking
[00:14:40] also Israel, and beyond that they started attacking
[00:14:44] ships, tried to extract tols from ships passing through the red sea, they wanted
[00:14:48] to be seen as regional player that would have a say in international
[00:14:52] politics, so if anything does not go their way,
[00:14:55] "Irrespective if it is concerning Yemen or not, they want to
[00:14:59] exert that political pressure to get this
[00:15:03] recognition as regional player, and this is one the reasons why they
[00:15:07] attacked multiple ships from different countries, not just Saudis now lately, but in the past
[00:15:11] they've attacked British ships, they've attacked Dutch ships, they've attacked
[00:15:14] American ships and all sorts of ships, because they want that
[00:15:18] recognition, and it's extremely difficult and extremely dangerous because at
[00:15:22] the end the day you're dealing with a militia,
[00:15:24] so - few tolerate that, you're only
[00:15:28] postponing yet another bout of conflict where the militia is going to
[00:15:32] blackmail international community seeking additional concessions, and this is why I've
[00:15:36] always been talking to international. partners and regional partners is that you need to address the
[00:15:40] root the conflict,
[00:15:40] you need to decisively deal with the hoothies, you cannot keep passing the
[00:15:44] buck and postponing the issue through temporary cease
[00:15:48] fires or non-sustainable agreements that will allow the
[00:15:52] hoothies to stay in control, especially when they have control over
[00:15:56] the means the states and taxation and oil revenues. so
[00:15:59] in terms the consequences of of this kind
[00:16:03] of
[00:16:04] you know a group, if one can call it? that
[00:16:08] and and
[00:16:08] you know of course the kind of exercising of
[00:16:12] course influence outside the territory, what kind of reaction
[00:16:16] you overall expect after what we've seen also and
[00:16:20] for Yemen also in particular, what do you expect in the
[00:16:23] future? unfortunately,
[00:16:26] based on the track record the past three years, there has
[00:16:30] been some reactions, you've seen the Americans attack the hoothies, you've seen the
[00:16:34] Europeans create the aspedies naval force. to protect the ships
[00:16:38] in the red sea, but there they have always been half hearted
[00:16:42] measures. they never actually delt a blow to the
[00:16:45] hooties, it was always a protective force, it
[00:16:49] was always um, it's just a bare
[00:16:52] minimum, they did not deal with the hoothies and dislogging the
[00:16:55] hoothies, they only tried to protect some the ships in the red sea
[00:16:59] while leaving the hoot infrastructure in place while leaving the houti threat
[00:17:03] in place, which only means that their post
[00:17:07] the problem and come few
[00:17:11] months,
[00:17:12] the his will come back, raise the bar, demand additional
[00:17:15] concessions, and this is devastating, and this is what happened with Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia
[00:17:19] signed an agreement with the hoothis in 2022,
[00:17:23] hoping to deescalate the situation, hoping that there
[00:17:27] is going
[00:17:27] to be calmer heads that will prevail amongst the
[00:17:30] movement, but we warn back at the time is that the hutis are only binding their
[00:17:34] time to regroup, restock. they will come
[00:17:38] back and they will ask for additional concessions and that's basically what they did right
[00:17:42] now,
[00:17:46] when we look at in terms of
[00:17:48] you know regional states and their response to the hauti
[00:17:51] attacks, the threats also against babal mandap, maritime
[00:17:55] commerce, what combination of maritime security,
[00:17:59] deterrance, regional cooperation, political engagement you
[00:18:03] think could make difference at this point, you're also looking at
[00:18:07] this
[00:18:07] without
[00:18:07] the sea arabia situation to to sort of
[00:18:11] deescalate for things to at least
[00:18:15] sort of what can one say go back to a state of
[00:18:18] normalcy, let's
[00:18:21] say, well, okay,
[00:18:25] you need to begin with the cutting or
[00:18:29] choking the air out the huti means, you need to economically
[00:18:32] kind of basically isolate them, one, two, you cannot
[00:18:36] just the... protect lodging
[00:18:37] red the the hoothies for multiple areas. three,
[00:18:41] this is a war that cannot be won just by aerial campaign. we've been there done
[00:18:45] that since 2015 and it did not dislodge the hoothies. what you need is ground
[00:18:48] forces to take over uh
[00:18:51] the hoothi controlled areas. you need to limit the power. um,
[00:18:55] i've heard lot of arguments the past two days people saying like, if the government
[00:18:58] forces managed to secure the west coast, then it's an end to the hoothi threat. that
[00:19:02] is a completely false. hethies managed to attack
[00:19:06] the ships. over the past two years when they did not control
[00:19:10] b, well beyond uh within
[00:19:14] from the internal parts of yemen they attack the ships, so you don't need just to
[00:19:18] secure babel mendeb, you need to dislarge the hoothies from the heartland
[00:19:21] and from places like the capital sana, four, as long as
[00:19:25] people continue to treat the hoothis as a viable political party, we're not getting
[00:19:29] anywhere, hutis are a militia, they think in mentality of a
[00:19:32] militia, they're maximalist, they also always come
[00:19:36] back and raise the... bar, if you don't limit their military
[00:19:40] power, if you don't have that breaking point where you isolate them, we're
[00:19:44] not going to get anywhere. how do
[00:19:48] you in terms the the nexus when we look at Israel in
[00:19:51] particular, how does it factor in and and how
[00:19:55] you know the consequences of that nexus
[00:19:59] itself, do you think that it's been exposed enough, do you expect it to
[00:20:03] sort of have you know
[00:20:04] the the ramifications of that for the world, how do you
[00:20:07] look at that? well let's refocus that a little bit on
[00:20:10] Yemen, whatever
[00:20:12] have had happened over the past three years especially with the guys the Gaza
[00:20:16] crisis, thehis has managed to exploit that to their advantage,
[00:20:20] they've seen how the world failed to act
[00:20:23] in defending the Palestinians and they use
[00:20:26] that to recruit fighters on the ground,
[00:20:30] and lot of other factions did the same thing as well, but the hutis exploited it a very good way
[00:20:34] because they have a really good PR machine and they recruted. tens of
[00:20:38] thousands of fighters and and and trying to
[00:20:42] position themselves as the strongest member the axis of resistance that is
[00:20:45] led by Iran, and in doing so they managed to also get recruits.
[00:20:50] from across the red sea and build relationships with the
[00:20:53] shabab in Somalia and they did so by
[00:20:57] also recruiting people from Syria, from Lebanon and in Iraq as well,
[00:21:01] and they built also on the opened offices even there, so they built this
[00:21:04] regional network on the premise of dealing with
[00:21:08] Israel, but while having at heart
[00:21:12] their own objectives,
[00:21:13] their own max maximalist objectives and expanding their influence not
[00:21:17] just at the southern tip the peninsula, but regional influence. and they
[00:21:21] built this huge network of and also arsenal
[00:21:25] if if i may that they could use any given moment whether
[00:21:29] it's in regards to Israel or others and that's what they did over the past
[00:21:33] months when they started attacking Saudi Arabia they didn't attack Israel
[00:21:35] they attacks arabia but what about you
[00:21:39] the reports of the delegation when you look at the US delegation meeting
[00:21:43] how these and and the effects of that do you think how
[00:21:47] credible and and do you think that there is a possible? that
[00:21:51] something will emerge from there also, how do you look at
[00:21:54] that? well, the UN led peace process is
[00:21:58] still ongoing, yes there's been a lot of multiple impediments
[00:22:01] and it's a steep hill
[00:22:05] to climb, especially during escalation, so they always try to
[00:22:08] deescalate where cooler heads would prevail and they will manage to bring
[00:22:12] people to the table, unfortunately every time they get to to
[00:22:16] that point something or the other happens and we're back. into
[00:22:20] fighting mode between the various factions and always it's triggered by the huis and
[00:22:24] this is where we at now, for instance, the UN envoy delivered his
[00:22:28] remarks yesterday, he basically said, we will continue on the
[00:22:32] path of trying to get a peace
[00:22:36] process started - ultimately
[00:22:39] reconciliation, but right
[00:22:42] now emotions are high, right now the fighting
[00:22:46] is still ongoing, right now the dust has not settled, right now all the group
[00:22:50] are trying to get as much territory as possible before they
[00:22:54] eventually move into negotiations
[00:22:56] and this is one the questions that lot of people have asked me and they said do you
[00:23:00] think the yemini government is going to completely obliterate the hutis or the hutis are going to be
[00:23:04] able to completely abliterate the yemini government and i said like that's going to be difficult
[00:23:07] because you're talking about a complete massacre if you want to wipe up
[00:23:11] the hoothis i don't think that's feasible and
[00:23:15] vice versa the hutis cannot wipe out half the
[00:23:17] country eventually evitably you reach an agreement, but the
[00:23:21] question is, when we get to the table, who's going to have the
[00:23:25] upper hand? and right now, hutis have leverage, and
[00:23:29] they need to dilute that leverage. fair enough, thank
[00:23:33] you so much, thank you for summing it up so well, thank you for your time, hisham. i want
[00:23:37] to move on, we have with us Paul fritch who is a senior fellows institute,
[00:23:40] switzerland, executive and residence, geneva center for security policy joining
[00:23:44] us, it's always a pleasure having you Paul, when we look at the
[00:23:48] midterm elections, Iran hormos and of
[00:23:51] course, the political cost of this war, how do you look at
[00:23:55] this? as far as the midterm elections are concerned, you of course
[00:23:59] the strategic constraint, if one can call it
[00:24:03] that, as far as Donald Trump administration is concerned,
[00:24:06] once the the pre-election situation versus the post
[00:24:10] election situation, how would how do you look at it and and you think it will be a
[00:24:14] changed scenario, considering what we know about the
[00:24:17] position of of you know at this time as far
[00:24:21] as the Donald Trump administration is
[00:24:23] concerned? yes, well, I think
[00:24:27] the strategic constraint on the
[00:24:30] president is not so much the mid-terms
[00:24:34] themselves, the the strategic constraint is public
[00:24:37] opinion that is by and large opposed to
[00:24:41] this war, and we see the midterm
[00:24:45] election campaigns as an expression of that, and we
[00:24:49] had series of senate debates um this week
[00:24:53] and uh republican candidates have struggled to
[00:24:57] explain their formal support for the war in terms
[00:25:00] their votes against congressional resolutions that
[00:25:04] have sought to uh reign in president Trump's authority
[00:25:07] and uh yes I think that the mid-terms um if
[00:25:11] the polls are to be believed are probably going to
[00:25:15] send major signal
[00:25:19] of uh a public rebuke the administration's
[00:25:22] policy, but but when if we you know,
[00:25:26] like you said, it's it's going to send a public signal of
[00:25:29] rebuke, does it,
[00:25:31] do you think to a man like president Donald Trump, do you think it's going to
[00:25:35] matter in the sense that right now, in terms of this is his
[00:25:39] second term, so in terms of what he is expecting, do
[00:25:43] you think he's thinking about his legacy, do you think that you know he is
[00:25:47] thinking about bettering the the... original Obama
[00:25:51] agreement
[00:25:51] or you, I think we spoke earlier, that is no more on the
[00:25:55] table, it's not something that's likely to happen anymore, so what
[00:25:59] is what is he going to be thinking, not that one can really?
[00:26:02] but what is your opinion generally? well, we
[00:26:06] have to remember that it's not the only constraint on president
[00:26:10] Trump, his military options have become more
[00:26:14] constrained by virtue of simple military
[00:26:16] realities, the force that's currently deployed in the
[00:26:20] Persian Gulf cannot remain there indefinitely, the loss
[00:26:24] the naval support activity in Bahrain, has
[00:26:27] strained logistical supply chains, we've
[00:26:31] seen ' aircraft carrier groups remaine deployed well
[00:26:35] beyond uh the point where um they remained
[00:26:38] operationally effective uh and then uh subsequently
[00:26:42] taken out of service for extended periods of time for emergency
[00:26:46] maintenance, we saw that with the USS Gerald Ford, we saw that with the
[00:26:50] USS Abraham Lincoln, um these
[00:26:52] are um these are assets that the US has in
[00:26:56] limited quantities and it can't continue this uh pace and
[00:27:00] intensity of deployment uh indefinitely. um, if there
[00:27:04] is a change in control of Congress and Congress is willing to
[00:27:07] assert its prerogatives uh more aggressively in terms of
[00:27:11] restricting funding and uh passing
[00:27:14] concrete legislative constraints on the president's
[00:27:18] ability to conduct this war, then that will
[00:27:22] further constrain President Trump in the the options that he
[00:27:25] has. um, we've seen the depletion of critical munitions
[00:27:29] worldwide, the US has has lost, between
[00:27:33] half and two-thirds of its supplies of
[00:27:36] critical offensive and uh defensive munitions,
[00:27:40] tomahawk missiles, patriot pack 3 interceptors, thad
[00:27:44] interceptors, these are developments that have an impact not
[00:27:48] only with regard to this conflict, but also with regard to the strength the
[00:27:51] US military deterrant in Asia in Europe.
[00:27:55] so uh, yes, the sorry, go
[00:27:58] ahead, do is it fact that
[00:28:02] the US can you know continue this war at least
[00:28:05] on the military front indefinitely or you
[00:28:09] think that you within these constraints?
[00:28:12] no, no, I don't think, I don't think that it's
[00:28:16] sustainable, I think that it can
[00:28:19] continue the blockade of Iranian ports for some period
[00:28:23] of time, but I think even that um will be
[00:28:26] subject to a balancing test with regard to the impact of that
[00:28:30] operation on U.S. capabilities in other
[00:28:34] theaters around the world and in particularly east Asia
[00:28:38] um where uh the US presence has been weakened
[00:28:41] significantly um by uh this conflict, there
[00:28:45] there is not currently a single uh US aircraft carrier
[00:28:49] strike group uh deployed anywhere in the Asia pacific
[00:28:52] theater um that's
[00:28:54] a problem uh when most the American foreign policy
[00:28:57] establishment remains focused on the long-term a strategic
[00:29:01] competition with China um and uh
[00:29:05] faces and the US and its allies face other threats in the Asia
[00:29:09] Pacific region such as uh North
[00:29:11] Korea. Um, this, this is a
[00:29:14] situation that can continue for some time, it cannot continue
[00:29:17] indefinitely, and the options for a
[00:29:21] significant military escalation, such
[00:29:25] as the introduction of ground troops um are limited by military
[00:29:29] capabilities and they're limited by lack of public support.
[00:29:34] How pushed is Donald Trump
[00:29:37] knowing that he is losing support for the
[00:29:40] midterms?
[00:29:43] Well, that's a difficult question,
[00:29:46] because I I hesitate, I hesitate to try to get
[00:29:49] into the president's head, um, if you listen to him
[00:29:53] at his rallies,
[00:29:55] he doesn't seem to believe that he's losing public support, uh, clearly
[00:29:59] he is, um, unlike in his first term.
[00:30:03] uh where uh he seemed to retain uh a fairly
[00:30:07] diverse set of sources of information,
[00:30:11] um, he seems to be um
[00:30:15] locked inside bubble where people largely tell him what he wants
[00:30:19] to hear, uh,
[00:30:21] so um, I don't know how much of a surprise the mid-term elections are going to be for the
[00:30:25] president, um, clearly when he wakes up on the morning of
[00:30:29] November 4th, um, if uh, "the
[00:30:32] situation is as it seems to be at the moment, um, he's going to be
[00:30:36] dealing with very different political reality than the one that he's been
[00:30:40] living with for the past two years. so what if the
[00:30:44] republicans lose control of congress?
[00:30:48] in terms of an electoral setback, do you think that it
[00:30:52] could push Trump back to the diplomatic
[00:30:55] table, or you think that
[00:30:57] you know it could escalate the confrontation?"?