PAKISTANTV — broadcast
20261011 030000 UTC
516 transcript segments
Google Speech-to-Text API Automatic Transcription (Chirp)
Data courtesy of The GDELT Project (https://www.gdeltproject.org/), from the Internet Archive TV News Archive.
Machine transcription. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a verbatim quotation record.

[00:00:05] of of of
[00:00:18] Hello and a welcome to pakistan tv live from Islamabad studios, I am Sn
[00:00:23] of Haqani. Let's have look at the
[00:00:24] headlines.
[00:00:33] of a
[00:00:40] At least 12 people have been killed and 309 others wounded in
[00:00:44] attack on king Khalid
[00:00:46] of international airport in
[00:00:48] in Riyadh.
[00:00:49] of
[00:00:54] The Prime Minister Shabbaz Sharief strongly condemns the Hulthy militia's attack on King Khalid
[00:00:58] of International
[00:00:59] in Airport in Riyadh. it serious threat to regional peace and
[00:01:02] of stability.
[00:01:07] of The US president Donald Trump says he will soon decide whether to
[00:01:11] join the Saudi strikes against the hoothies following attack on Riyadh's
[00:01:14] international airport, adding that Washington DC had just
[00:01:18] of learned
[00:01:18] of the incident and will make a quick
[00:01:20] decision.
[00:01:26] of Several thousand pro
[00:01:27] of Palestinian of protesters marsh through Central London and Berlin calling for
[00:01:31] an end to the Israeli strikes on
[00:01:32] of Gaza, marches carried the plakards, reading and the genocide and free
[00:01:36] Palestine.
[00:01:43] The US president Donald Trump urges Ukraine to replace president Vladimir
[00:01:47] Zelinski with new leader while criticizing him over the strikes on Russian
[00:01:51] oil refineries that contribute to the high diesel prices before the
[00:01:55] of election. of The President
[00:01:59] Asif Ali Zaddari. The Prime Minister Shahbas Sharif discuss political and security
[00:02:02] situation and agreed to conven National Assembly Senate sessions on
[00:02:06] of October the
[00:02:06] of 13th.
[00:02:12] in Pakistan will face Sri Lanka today in the second T20 international
[00:02:16] at Ravalpendi cricket stadium. The green shirts lead the three match series 1-0
[00:02:20] after four wicket win in the opener. BDV Sports HD will be telecasting
[00:02:23] the match
[00:02:24] of
[00:02:25] of live.
[00:02:42] Those were the headlines,
[00:02:43] of now the news in detail: at least 12 people have been killed and 309 others
[00:02:47] injured an attack on the international airport in
[00:02:50] of Saudi Arabian Capital Riyadh. Days after Yemen's
[00:02:53] of hoothies claimed to have carried out similar strikes on the
[00:02:56] of hub, there a Saudi civil aviation authority.
[00:03:00] said that victims were four Saudis and two Bangladeshi
[00:03:03] nationals, while Egypt, Jordan, Palestine,
[00:03:06] of Sudan, Syria and the US, each had one
[00:03:11] of of their citizens killed. Operations at the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh have been suspended.
[00:03:15] The US embassy said that it was aware
[00:03:18] of of the attacks urging Americans to avoid the area. According to the Saudi Led
[00:03:21] coalition, a projectile also fell near the king father international airport in
[00:03:25] them in eastern Saudi Arabia. The attacks come day
[00:03:29] after the... Authorities said
[00:03:30] a that three Saudies, including pilot were killed in two attacks on the
[00:03:34] airport by the Hutis the day prior. Another three
[00:03:38] people were killed in the Houti attacks on two so the airports on the
[00:03:41] 6th and the 7th of
[00:03:43] October.
[00:03:48] of The Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shahbas Sharif has strongly condemned the Huti
[00:03:51] of militia's attack on the King Khalid international airport in Rad calling it serious
[00:03:55] threat
[00:03:55] of to regional peace and stability. In a post
[00:03:58] of to next, the prime minister expressed condolence. to the berieved families and prayed for the
[00:04:01] speedy recovery
[00:04:02] of the injured. He said the attacks on the civilians and critical infrastructure are
[00:04:06] completely unacceptable and constitute a serious threat to regional peace and
[00:04:09] stability. He described such attacks as a flagrant
[00:04:12] of violation
[00:04:14] of of the international alliance that they must see immediately. Reaffirming Pakistan's
[00:04:18] of solidarity with Saudi Arabia Sharif wow support for the kingdom's
[00:04:22] of sovereignty, territorial integrity and security under the Maca joint
[00:04:25] agreement.
[00:04:32] Now the
[00:04:32] of US president Donald Trump has said that he would soon decide whether to join the Saudi
[00:04:36] strikes again the Hutis following the attack on the Riyads International
[00:04:40] Airport, killed 12 people including
[00:04:43] a US citizen. Now Donald Trump told the reporters at white house that the United States
[00:04:47] might join the Saudi strikes against the Hutis adding that decision would be made soon
[00:04:51] as Washington DC had just learned
[00:04:54] of the recent attacks and could act quickly.
[00:04:56] of Meanwhile the US state department condemned the hoothi
[00:04:59] of attacks against the civilian. infrastructure and the airports in Saudi Arabia. A state
[00:05:02] department spokes person told the CBS news that it was in close contact with the Saudi
[00:05:06] partners, adding that so the Arabia and United States are
[00:05:10] standing together and United States stood firmly with the
[00:05:14] Saudi Arabians against hoothi
[00:05:16] terrorism.
[00:05:22] That's all the news that we have for the moment, for more news details and live streaming. Do log onto our
[00:05:25] website Pakistan
[00:05:27] TV.
[00:05:55] Assalam alaikum and welcome to perspective. Regional tensions are
[00:05:58] escalating, putting critical infrastructure, maritime security
[00:06:02] and regional stability at risk. Hauti attacks on Saudi Arabia have raised
[00:06:06] fresh security concerns, while the strategic Babel Mandap straight and
[00:06:10] the state of Hurmus remains central. to wider regional tensions with the
[00:06:14] US mid-term elections approaching, president Donald
[00:06:18] Trump is also facing growing political pressure as the Iran
[00:06:21] conflict disrupts global energy markets and raises
[00:06:25] questions about the costs and consequences of his
[00:06:28] policies, how could the evolving security situation
[00:06:32] affect his party's electoral prospects and shape
[00:06:36] Washington's next moves. Pakistan has strongly condemned
[00:06:40] the attacks in Saudi Arabia and its commitment to Saudi
[00:06:43] sovereinity and security under the Makka joint defense
[00:06:47] agreement with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. As
[00:06:51] Islamabad continues to call for peace and
[00:06:53] deescalation, what is the shifting security
[00:06:57] landscape mean for the region? In our second
[00:07:01] segment, we examine Trump's administrator Donald Trump
[00:07:04] administration's expanding immigration crackdown, including the
[00:07:08] suspension of green card processing for major technological companies.
[00:07:12] and investigations into leading US
[00:07:15] universities, as Washington tightens scrutiny the
[00:07:19] skilled foreign workers and international research
[00:07:22] questions are mounting over the future of global
[00:07:26] talent, mobility and America's
[00:07:29] competitive competitiveness
[00:07:32] in the technology sector, all this and more on perspective
[00:07:36] today,
[00:07:37] we have with us Hashamul umesi who is senior
[00:07:39] advisor ' on
[00:07:43] Yemen and on from European
[00:07:47] Institute of Peace, we also have with
[00:07:50] us Paul Fritch senior fellow middle east institute Switzerland,
[00:07:54] executive in residence Geneva Center for security policy joining
[00:07:58] us.
[00:07:59] A little later on we'll also have other guests during the course the
[00:08:02] program. Welcome to the program
[00:08:05] Hisham. When we look at Babal Mandap, for
[00:08:09] example, you the fact that it's become a critical point in this
[00:08:12] regional, what strategic objectives are
[00:08:16] the howt is sort of pursuing by
[00:08:19] threatening maritime traffic and of
[00:08:22] course what it means for this vital international
[00:08:26] shipping route corridor and and what are the implications in your
[00:08:30] opinion for regional security and also
[00:08:34] what it means as far as global security at this
[00:08:37] time?
[00:08:42] "Dut is want to exert pressure on the red
[00:08:46] sea a maritime trade to get this
[00:08:50] economic and political leverage. They understand very well that the world will
[00:08:54] only pay attention to them if they make noise outside the border of
[00:08:58] Yemen. Yemen has been dubbed for the longest time for the past 12 years the conflict as the
[00:09:01] forgotten war, and to get some attention, to get
[00:09:05] some recognition and to get that
[00:09:07] stick, they needed to attack
[00:09:11] all these ships in the red sea." making that economic impact on
[00:09:15] global trade, but also threatening regional countries as well,
[00:09:19] because they ship lot of oil through that straight, so it's
[00:09:22] critical for their countries, for the stability their countries, and
[00:09:26] this is one the reasons why they also in the same way are threatening Saudi
[00:09:30] Arabia the past few weeks by attacking
[00:09:33] infrastructure within Riyadh, within other parts of Saudi Arabia, attacking
[00:09:37] armco, attacking, I remember the electricity grid as
[00:09:41] well, and they continue. to do that, because that's how they raise the cost
[00:09:45] the conflict, they learned that from the Iranians and that's
[00:09:48] how they kind of create this
[00:09:51] calculus where they can extract concessions, not just from Saudi,
[00:09:55] but also from regional and international
[00:09:57] stakeholders. fair
[00:10:00] enough, we also have with this
[00:10:03] b, but before
[00:10:06] we go to him, in terms of in terms the huti's
[00:10:10] actions, Hisham, we look at
[00:10:13] you know Yemen's internal conflict and and the political
[00:10:16] landscape so to speak, how have years of
[00:10:20] political
[00:10:21] you know fragmentation, struggle for power, failure to... reach a
[00:10:25] durable settlement enabled the hauties to
[00:10:28] consolidate their authority and expand their regional
[00:10:32] ambition,
[00:10:34] you know, because we know that internally also the situation and the fact that
[00:10:38] they've been able to do
[00:10:40] this, how how do you look at that in terms
[00:10:42] of what's happening now and the internal situation?
[00:10:46] that's actually an excellent question, this is
[00:10:47] what i've been saying for the for the past 10 years is that the
[00:10:51] hutis uh oh their r the
[00:10:55] Iranian support, but also to the fragmentation and the division within
[00:10:59] Yemen, it's it's an inversal proportional
[00:11:01] relationship where the weaker the yemani factions are, the
[00:11:05] stronger the duties grow, they managed to exploit all those
[00:11:08] divisions, the instability, the failure the state
[00:11:12] since since 2010, since the uprisings that
[00:11:16] accompanied the arab spring, and they managed to
[00:11:19] hijack the state, and by doing so they entrenched
[00:11:23] themselves a position of... power and throughout the past 10
[00:11:27] years the conflicts since 2015 they managed to
[00:11:31] expand across Yemen moving all the way to the west
[00:11:34] coast and that's what you hearing a lot of fighting now for instance in Babel Mandab in the
[00:11:38] red sea because they want additional territories but they owe that as
[00:11:42] well because the internal fragmentation and I've
[00:11:46] always said if you want to defeat the hoothies you need to
[00:11:50] unify the Yemini factions led by the Yemini government because only
[00:11:54] them can dislodge the hoothies from places like
[00:11:58] Damar, the central part of Yemen, but also the capital
[00:12:01] Sana, there needs to be a concerted effort backed by the regional international
[00:12:05] community, and luckily for the time being you have the Saudis back in the Yemini
[00:12:09] government supporting them, but ultimately this is a
[00:12:12] Yemeny Yemeny fight, this is not, and I remember lot of people
[00:12:16] trying to pitch it as a Saudi versus Hothies fight, it's
[00:12:19] not never was, it was the Yemenis that wanted to take
[00:12:23] back the country from the His. but they also needed support from regional partners
[00:12:27] and our closest neighbor traditionally for the past 100 years have been Saudi Arabia and
[00:12:31] that's one the reasons why it was the Saudis that let the
[00:12:34] coalition that helped attempting to restore
[00:12:38] the state in 2015, but but where
[00:12:42] does the houtis actually derive
[00:12:45] authority within Yemen today when you look at
[00:12:48] you know the fact that the main sources their political,
[00:12:52] financial, military power and... and of course
[00:12:55] you how how do they use that to control
[00:12:58] territory in terms of trying to understand
[00:13:01] and also the fact that they
[00:13:03] they are able to somehow sustain their position
[00:13:05] right? yep, one one the important things that
[00:13:09] lot of people need to understand is that the hutis did not spring into the scene just in the past
[00:13:13] 15 years,
[00:13:14] the hutis were there for the past thousand years, we had the imamat,
[00:13:18] monarchy in Yemen for the better part the past 1ous
[00:13:22] years, which was toppled in the 1960. these
[00:13:26] are reminants of that regime that stayed in
[00:13:29] yemen in the northern part the country and
[00:13:33] they managed to build their power over the past 25 years
[00:13:37] beginning into the 2000s and in 2004 they launched an
[00:13:41] offensive in the north part the country which led to six consecutive
[00:13:45] wars between 2004 and 2009 so the is actually
[00:13:48] existed there for hundreds of years but they managed
[00:13:52] capitalizing on the instability. in 2010,
[00:13:56] 2011 to expand their influence and exploiting
[00:14:00] the infighting between the various factions, tribal and government and
[00:14:03] military between the period of 2011 and
[00:14:06] 2015 to jump on the scene, hijack the state,
[00:14:10] take over the capital, take over other parts of Yemen, one, two,
[00:14:14] they also owe their rise because the support that they've gotten
[00:14:18] extensive support that they've gotten from Iran, they they got in financial
[00:14:21] support, they've gotten ballistic missiles, they've gotten missiles, they've gotten
[00:14:25] drones, they've gotten lot of training, not just from Iran, they've got a lot of
[00:14:29] training from Hizballah as well, and there's a lot, the actually
[00:14:33] IRGC officers on the ground, on the
[00:14:36] battlefield as commanders directing the
[00:14:39] war in multiple frontlines in Yemen, and that includes
[00:14:43] Hisbollah and IRGC, so they're getting lot of
[00:14:46] support, and in terms
[00:14:48] of question, of course they've
[00:14:52] managed to have that kind of support that... then allows
[00:14:56] them to exert this kind of external
[00:15:00] influence or extern, far beyond the territory.
[00:15:04] how dangerous is it when when this kind of a
[00:15:07] grouping can happen and and then and and then potentially
[00:15:11] have consequences outside a country's
[00:15:14] territory, when we look at you in the light of this particular
[00:15:18] instance when we see the houthees, extremely
[00:15:22] extremely concerning, you have to remember the past couple years. 'his sank
[00:15:26] or attacked close to 100 ships and there at
[00:15:30] sea, you're not talking about the conflict that is not contained within the borders of yemen, you're talking
[00:15:34] about a conflict had a spillover effect, remember during the gaz'.
[00:15:37] prices helties wanted to jump into the fray trying to pitch
[00:15:41] themselves as the vanguard the muslim the arab nation by attacking
[00:15:45] also Israel and beyond that they started attacking
[00:15:48] ships tried to extract tols from ships passing through the red sea they
[00:15:52] wanted to be seen as regional player that would have a say in
[00:15:56] international politics so if anything does not go their way
[00:16:00] - respective if it is concerning yemen or not they want to
[00:16:04] exert that political pressure to get this
[00:16:07] not uh recognition as regional player and this is one the reasons
[00:16:11] why they attacked multiple ships from different countries, not just saudis now lately, but in
[00:16:15] the past they've attacked British ships, they've attacked Dutch ships, they've
[00:16:18] attacked American ships and all sorts of ships, because they wanted that
[00:16:22] recognition, and it's extremely difficult and extremely dangerous because at the
[00:16:26] end the day you're dealing with a militia, so if
[00:16:29] you tolerate that, you're only
[00:16:33] postponing yet another bout of conflict where the militia is going to
[00:16:36] blackmail. community seeking additional concessions and this is why I've always
[00:16:40] been talking to international partners and regional partners is that you need to address the root
[00:16:44] the conflict,
[00:16:45] you need to decisively deal with the hoothies, you cannot keep passing the
[00:16:49] buck and postponing the issue through temporary cease
[00:16:52] fires or non-sustainable agreements that will allow the
[00:16:56] hoothies to stay in control, especially when they have control over
[00:17:00] the means the states and taxation and all revenues. so
[00:17:04] in terms the consequences of of this kind. of
[00:17:08] a you know a group, if one can call it
[00:17:12] that, and and of course the kind of
[00:17:14] exercising, of course influence
[00:17:17] outside the territory, what kind of reaction do you overall
[00:17:21] you expect after what we've seen also, and for Yemen also, in
[00:17:25] particular, what do you expect in the future?
[00:17:29] unfortunately based on the track record the past
[00:17:33] three years, there has been some reactions, you've seen the Americans
[00:17:36] attack. you've seen the Europeans create the speed's
[00:17:40] naval force to protect the ships in the red sea, but
[00:17:43] there they have always been half hearted measures, they
[00:17:47] never actually delt a blow to the hoothies, it was always
[00:17:51] a protective force was
[00:17:54] always, it's just a bare minimum, they did
[00:17:58] not deal with the
[00:18:02] the hoothis and dislodging the hoothis, they only try to protect some ships in the red sea while leaving the infrastructure
[00:18:06] in place, while leaving the... threat in place, which only
[00:18:10] means that they're postponing the problem
[00:18:13] and come few months, the his will come
[00:18:17] back, raise the bar, demand additional concessions, and
[00:18:21] this is devastating, and this is what happened with Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia signed an agreement with the
[00:18:24] hoothis in 2022, hoping to deescalate the
[00:18:28] situation, hoping that there is going to be calmer
[00:18:32] heads that will prevail amongst
[00:18:35] the huti movement, but we weren't back at the time is: that the hutis are only binding
[00:18:38] their time to regroup, restock, they will come
[00:18:42] back and they will ask for additional concessions, and that's basically what they did right
[00:18:46] now,
[00:18:50] when we look at in terms of you know regional states in
[00:18:54] their response to the houthi attacks, the threats also
[00:18:58] against babal mandap, maritime commerce, what combination of
[00:19:01] maritime security, deterents, regional
[00:19:04] cooperation, political engagement you think could make
[00:19:08] difference at this point, you're also looking at the Saudi
[00:19:11] Arabia situation
[00:19:14] to to sort of deescalate for things to at
[00:19:18] least sort of what can one say go back to
[00:19:22] a state of normalcy, let's say,
[00:19:26] well, okay, you need to
[00:19:29] begin with the cutting or choking the air
[00:19:33] the out huti means you need to economically kind of basically
[00:19:37] them, one, two, you cannot just protect the red sea without
[00:19:41] dislogging the hoothies from multiple areas, three,
[00:19:45] this is a war that cannot be won just by aerial campaign, we've been there done
[00:19:49] that since 2015, and it did not dislodge the hoothis, what you need is ground
[00:19:53] forces to take over the houti controlled
[00:19:56] areas, you need to limit the power, I've heard lot of arguments
[00:20:00] the past two days, people saying like, if the America government forces managed to secure the
[00:20:04] west coast, then it's an end to the
[00:20:06] huti threat, that is a... completely false, heuties managed
[00:20:10] to attack the ships over the past two years when they did not
[00:20:14] control b, well beyond bau mendeb
[00:20:18] within from the internal parts of yemen they attack the ships, so you don't need just
[00:20:22] to secure babel mendeb, you need to dislagge the hoothies from the hotland
[00:20:26] and from places like the capital sal, four, as long
[00:20:29] as people continue to treat the hoothis as a viable political party, we're not getting
[00:20:33] anywhere, houties are a militia, they think in mentality of a militia.
[00:20:38] they're maximalist, they also always come back and raise the
[00:20:41] bar, if you don't limit their military power, if you
[00:20:45] don't have that breaking point where you isolate them, we're not gna get
[00:20:49] anywhere. how do you in terms
[00:20:53] the the nexus when we look at Israel in particular,
[00:20:57] how does it factor in and and how you know the consequences
[00:21:00] of that nexis itself, do you think
[00:21:04] that it's been exposed enough, do you expect it to sort of
[00:21:07] have you know the the ramifications of that for the world, how do
[00:21:11] you look at
[00:21:13] that? well let's refocus that a little bit on yemen, whatever
[00:21:16] have had happened over the past three years especially with the guys, gaza
[00:21:20] crisis, the hutis has managed to exploit that to their advantage,
[00:21:24] they've seen how the world failed to act
[00:21:28] in defending the Palestinians and they use
[00:21:31] that to recruit fighters on the ground, and
[00:21:34] lot of other factions did the same thing as well, but the hutis exploited it a very good way bause
[00:21:38] they have a really good PR machine and they recruited tens of
[00:21:42] thousands of fighters and and trying to
[00:21:46] position themselves as the strongest member the axis of resistance. that is
[00:21:50] led by Iran and in doing so they managed to also get
[00:21:53] recruits from across the red sea and build relationships with the
[00:21:57] shabab in Somalia and they did so by
[00:22:01] also recruiting people from Syria from Lebanon and in Iraq as well
[00:22:05] and they built also opened offices even there so they built this
[00:22:09] regional network a premise of dealing with
[00:22:13] Israel but while having at heart
[00:22:16] their own objectives their own max maximalist objectives. and
[00:22:20] expanding their influence not just at the southern tip the peninsula but regional
[00:22:23] influence and they built this huge network
[00:22:27] of and also arsenal if i may that they could
[00:22:31] use any given moment whether it's in regards to Israel or others
[00:22:35] and that's what they did over the past month when they started attacking Saudi Arabia they
[00:22:39] didn't attack Israel they attack Saudi Arabia but what
[00:22:43] about the reports of the delegation when we look at the US
[00:22:47] delegation meeting how these and and the effects of that. that do you
[00:22:50] think how credible and and do you think that there is a
[00:22:54] possibility that something will emerge from there also?
[00:22:58] how do you look at that? well, the UN led peace
[00:23:01] process is still ongoing, yes there's been a lot of multiple impediments
[00:23:05] and it's a steep
[00:23:09] hill to clibe, especially during escalation, so
[00:23:12] they always try to deescalate where cooler heads would prevail and
[00:23:16] they will manage to bring people to the table, unfortunately every time...
[00:23:20] they get to to that point something or the other happens and we're
[00:23:23] back into fighting mode between the various factions and always it's
[00:23:27] triggered by the hoothies and this is where we at now for instance the un
[00:23:30] envoy delivered his remarks yesterday and he basically
[00:23:33] said we will continue on the path
[00:23:37] of trying to get a peace process
[00:23:41] started - ultimately
[00:23:44] reconciliation but right
[00:23:46] now emotions are high right now the fighting is
[00:23:50] still ongoing, right now the dust has not settled, right now all the
[00:23:54] groups are trying to get as much territory as possible
[00:23:57] before they eventually move into negotiations, and this is one the questions
[00:24:01] that lot of people have asked me and they said,
[00:24:05] do you think government is going to completely abliterate the hutis or the hutis are going to be able to completely obliterate
[00:24:09] the uni government and
[00:24:10] i said like that's going to be difficult because you're talking about a complete massacre
[00:24:14] if you want to wipe up the hoothis, i don't think that's
[00:24:16] feasible and vice versa. "the hoodis
[00:24:20] cannot wipe out half the country, eventually,
[00:24:24] inevitably, you reach an agreement, but the question is,
[00:24:28] when we get to the table, who's going to have the upper hand? and right now,
[00:24:31] huties have leverage, and they need to dilute that
[00:24:35] leverage. fair enough, thank you so much, thank you for
[00:24:38] summing it up so well, thank you for your time, hisham. i want to move on, we
[00:24:42] have with this paul fritch who's a senior fellow institute, switzerland, executive and
[00:24:46] residence, geneva center for security policy joining us, it's always a pleasure" having
[00:24:50] you Paul, when we look at the midterm elections,
[00:24:53] Iran, Hurmas and of course,
[00:24:56] you know, the political cost of this war, how do you look at this? as far
[00:25:00] as the midterm elections are concerned, of course the
[00:25:03] strategic constraint, if one can call it that,
[00:25:07] as far as Donald Trump administration is concerned,
[00:25:11] once the the pre-election situation versus the post
[00:25:14] election situation, how would how do you look at it and and you think it will be a
[00:25:18] change scenario? "considering what we know about the
[00:25:22] position of of you know at this time as far
[00:25:25] as the Donald Trump administration is
[00:25:27] concerned? yes, well, I think
[00:25:31] the strategic constraint um on the
[00:25:34] president is uh, not so much the mid-terms
[00:25:38] themselves, the the strategic constraint is public opinion
[00:25:42] uh that is by and large opposed uh to this
[00:25:46] war, and uh we see the uh mid-term election.
[00:25:50] campaigns as an expression of that, and we had
[00:25:53] series of senate debates this week,
[00:25:57] and republican candidates have struggled to
[00:26:01] explain their... support for the war in terms
[00:26:04] their votes against congressional resolutions that
[00:26:08] have sought to uh reign in president Trump's
[00:26:11] authority, and yes, I think that the
[00:26:14] midterms, if the polls are to be believed, are
[00:26:18] probably going to send major
[00:26:22] signal of a public rebuke the
[00:26:26] administration's policy, but but when
[00:26:30] if we you, like you said, it's it's going to send a public. signal of
[00:26:33] rebuke, does it,
[00:26:36] do you think to a man like President Donald Trump, do you think it's going to
[00:26:39] matter in the sense that right now, in terms of this is his
[00:26:43] second term,
[00:26:45] so you know, in terms of what he's expecting, do you think he's thinking about his
[00:26:48] legacy, do you think that you know he is thinking about
[00:26:52] bettering the the original Obama agreement, or
[00:26:56] you know I think we spoke earlier, that is no more on the table,
[00:27:00] it's not something that's likely to happen anymore. so what is what
[00:27:04] is he going to be thinking? not that one can really judge, but what is your
[00:27:07] opinion generally? well, we have to
[00:27:11] remember that it's not the only constraint on president
[00:27:14] Trump, his uh military options have become more
[00:27:18] constrained by virtue of simple military
[00:27:21] realities, the uh force that's currently deployed in the
[00:27:24] Persian Gulf cannot remain there indefinitely, the loss
[00:27:28] the naval support activity in Bahrain has straine.
[00:27:33] logistical supply chains, we've seen
[00:27:36] aircraft carrier groups remain deployed well beyond
[00:27:40] the point where they remained operationally
[00:27:43] effective and then subsequently taken out of
[00:27:47] service for extended periods of time for emergency maintenance,
[00:27:51] we saw that with the USS Gerald Ford, we saw that with the USS Abraham
[00:27:55] Lincoln, these are um these are
[00:27:59] assets that the US has in limited quantities and it's
[00:28:02] continue this pace and intensity of deployment
[00:28:06] indefinitely, if there is a change in control of
[00:28:10] congress and congress is willing to assert its prerogatives
[00:28:13] more aggressively in terms of restricting funding
[00:28:17] and passing concrete legislative
[00:28:21] constraints on the president's ability to conduct this war,
[00:28:24] then that will further constrain president Trump in the
[00:28:28] the options that he has. we've seen the depletion of...
[00:28:32] munitions worldwide, the US has has
[00:28:36] lost between half and two-thirds of its supplies
[00:28:39] of critical offensive and
[00:28:43] defensive munitions, tomahawk missiles, patriot pack
[00:28:47] th interceptors, that interceptors, these are developments
[00:28:51] that have an impact not only with regard to this conflict, but also with
[00:28:55] regard to the strength the US military deterrent in Asia
[00:28:58] in Europe, so yes the
[00:29:01] sorry when we
[00:29:04] do is it fact that the US can
[00:29:07] you know continue this war at least on the military
[00:29:11] front indefinitely or you think that you
[00:29:15] within these constraints? no, no, I
[00:29:18] don't think I don't think that it's sustainable, I think that
[00:29:22] it can continue the blockade of Iranian ports
[00:29:26] for some period of time, but I think even that um
[00:29:30] will be subject to a balancing. with regard to the
[00:29:34] impact
[00:29:34] of that operation on US capabilities in other
[00:29:38] theaters around the world and in particularly east
[00:29:41] Asia where the US presence has been weakened
[00:29:45] significantly by this conflict, there there
[00:29:49] is not currently a single US aircraft carrier
[00:29:53] strike group deployed anywhere in the Asia pacific
[00:29:56] theater um that's a problem when most
[00:30:00] the American foreign policy establishment remains focused on the
[00:30:04] long-term a strategic competition with China
[00:30:08] um and faces and the US and its
[00:30:11] allies face other threats in the Asia Pacific region such as North
[00:30:15] Korea. um this this is a
[00:30:19] situation that can continue for some time, it cannot continue
[00:30:22] indefinitely
[00:30:23] and uh the options for a significant military
[00:30:27] escalation such as the introduction of ground
[00:30:30] troops are limited. by military capabilities and they're
[00:30:34] limited by lack of public
[00:30:35] support. how
[00:30:39] pushed is Donald Trump knowing that
[00:30:43] he is losing support for the
[00:30:44] midterms?
[00:30:47] well, that's a difficult question,
[00:30:50] because I, I hesitate, I hesitate
[00:30:53] to try to get into the president's head. um, if you
[00:30:57] listen to him at his rallies, um, he does