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20261011 060000 UTC
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[00:00:11] of
[00:00:15] of
[00:00:19] of
[00:00:33] At least 12 people have been killed and
[00:00:36] of 309 others wounded in
[00:00:37] of attack on king Khalid international airport in
[00:00:42] of of Riyadh. Prime Minister
[00:00:46] of Shahbas Sharief strongly condemns the hoothi militia's attack on King
[00:00:50] Khalid international airport in Riyadh calling it serious
[00:00:53] threat to regional peace and
[00:00:56] of stability. He was.
[00:01:00] President Donald Trump condemns attack on Ryan's international airport calling it
[00:01:04] unacceptable. He says he will soon decide whether to join Saudi
[00:01:07] strikes against the
[00:01:08] hoothies.
[00:01:13] The Saudi Led coalition in Yemen has vowed a firm response to huthi
[00:01:17] attack a passenger terminal at Riyadh King
[00:01:20] of Khalid International
[00:01:22] of in Airport that cause deaths and
[00:01:22] injuries.
[00:01:29] A meeting. the federal cabinet is underway in Islamabad with Prime
[00:01:33] Minister Shahbaz Sharif in the chair. Agenda items are being discussed in the
[00:01:41] of meeting. of The of United Nations Human Rights officer is
[00:01:44] India to immediately release people arbitrarily detained
[00:01:48] during protest against electoral misconduct,
[00:01:52] a expressing concern over mass detentions in New
[00:01:54] Delhi.
[00:02:24] in of
[00:02:25] of
[00:02:31] Those are the headlines and now for the news in
[00:02:34] of details: at least
[00:02:35] in 12 people have been killed and 309 injured an attack
[00:02:38] of on an international airport in the Saudi Capital Riyadh days after
[00:02:42] Yemen suthi
[00:02:43] of claimed to have carried out similar strikes in the hul. The Saudi
[00:02:47] Civil Aviation authority said the victims were four Saudi and two Bangladeshi
[00:02:50] nationals while Egypt, Jordan, Palestine, Sudan,
[00:02:54] of Syria and the US, each had one
[00:02:56] of their citizens killed. Operations at the K Khalid
[00:03:00] international airport in Riyadh have been
[00:03:02] of suspended.
[00:03:03] of of The US embassy said it was aware
[00:03:08] of of the attacks urging Americans to avoid the area. According to the Saudi Let Coelection, a projectile also fell near King
[00:03:12] Fahad international airport in them in eastern Saudi Arabia.
[00:03:16] The attack comes the day after authorities said three Saudis including pilot were
[00:03:20] killed in two attacks on the airport by the Hutis the day
[00:03:23] prior. Another three people were killed in Houti attacks
[00:03:27] on two Saudi airports on sixth. and 7th of
[00:03:31] of October. of Prime
[00:03:35] Minister Shahbas Sharif has strongly condemned the heinous attack by the Huti militia
[00:03:39] onken Khalid international airport in Riyadh expressing
[00:03:42] of deepest
[00:03:42] of condolences to the perief families and praying for the swift and full recovery
[00:03:46] of the injured. In
[00:03:48] in a post on next, the prime minister said the attacks targeting civilians and
[00:03:51] critical infrastructure were completely unacceptable and posed
[00:03:55] serious threat to regional peace and stability. He added that such acts
[00:03:59] of violence which
[00:04:00] of constitute a
[00:04:01] of flagrant violation
[00:04:02] of the international law must see immediately.
[00:04:05] shabas sharif reaffirmed Pakistan's unvavoring solidarity with the kingdom of Saudi
[00:04:09] Arabia, its leadership and the brotherly people. he
[00:04:13] also reiterated Pakistan's steadfast commitment to Saudi Arabia's
[00:04:16] sovereignty, territorial integrity and
[00:04:19] of security in accordance with the Makka joint defense agreement and the enduring bonds of
[00:04:23] brotherhood between the two countries.
[00:04:25] in a
[00:04:26] of separate statement, the ministry of foreign affairs also condemned the attack
[00:04:29] of calling the... of a civilian airport, an act of
[00:04:32] of terrorism and a grave threat to regional
[00:04:34] a peace and security. the ministry said Pakistan fully supported the
[00:04:38] kingdom's legitimate right to defend its territory, protect its people and
[00:04:42] of safeguard its citizens and the cities and vital infrastructure
[00:04:46] against all threats and
[00:04:47] of acts of aggression. the statement called on the hoothi militia to immediately
[00:04:51] see this attacks and urged the international
[00:04:54] of community to take a firm and unequivocal stand against acts
[00:04:57] that endanger innocent lives and undermine regional
[00:05:01] stability, it added that Pakistan would continue to stand shoulder
[00:05:05] to shoulder with the kingdom of
[00:05:06] a Saudi Arabia, referring its commitment to the kingdom
[00:05:09] sovereignty, security and defense.
[00:05:17] US president Donald Trump said that attack on Riyadh International Airport that killed at
[00:05:21] least dozen people on Saturday was
[00:05:24] not acceptable. Speaking to reporters Trump said he will be speaking with
[00:05:28] Saudi Arabia's crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman following the attack by the
[00:05:32] Yemen's hoothies. Earlier US President Donald Trump said that he
[00:05:36] would soon decide whether to join Saudi strikes against Sahuis following
[00:05:39] attack on Riyaz International Airport that killed 12 people. including a US
[00:05:43] citizen. Trump told reporters at the white house that the United States might join
[00:05:47] the Saudi strikes against the hoothies, adding
[00:05:50] that decision would be made soon as Washington
[00:05:52] had just learned the recent attack and could act quickly.
[00:05:56] Meanwhile, the US state department condemned the Houti attacks against civilian
[00:06:00] infrastructure and airports in Saudi Arabia. A state
[00:06:03] department spokes person told CBS news that it was in close contact with the
[00:06:07] Saudi partners, adding that the US stood firmly with the kingdom of Saudi
[00:06:11] Arabia against the hoouti.
[00:06:12] terrorism.
[00:06:18] The Saudi Lade coalition in Yemen has vowed to respond firmly to akuthi attack on
[00:06:22] King Khalid international airport in Riyadh which left people dead and
[00:06:26] injured. The attack on Saturday targeted a passenger terminal at the
[00:06:29] airport in Saudi Capital. Coalition spokes person Turki Al Maliki
[00:06:33] said a statement on X that the assault constitutes a war crime
[00:06:37] under International Humanitarian law. He described it as heinous
[00:06:41] act that violates. unitarian principles, values and
[00:06:44] morals. Al-Maliki stressed that the coalitions joint forces
[00:06:48] command would form respond firmly to what he called a
[00:06:52] terrorist attack in accordance with the international humanitarian
[00:06:55] law.
[00:07:31] Assalomu alaikum and welcome to Perspective. Regional tensions are
[00:07:34] escalating putting critical infrastructure, maritime security
[00:07:38] and regional stability at risk. Houti attacks on Saudi Arabia have raised.
[00:07:42] fresh security concerns, while the strategic mandab straight and the
[00:07:46] strate of hurmus remains central to wider regional tensions with the
[00:07:50] US mid-term elections approaching, president Donald
[00:07:54] Trump is also facing growing political pressure as the Iran
[00:07:57] conflict disrupts global energy markets and raises
[00:08:01] questions about the costs and consequences of his
[00:08:04] policies. How could the evolving security situation
[00:08:08] affect his party's electoral prospects and shape
[00:08:11] Washington? next moves: Pakistan has strongly
[00:08:15] condemned the attacks in Saudi Arabia and reaffirmed its commitment to
[00:08:19] Saudi sovereinity in security under the Makka joint defense
[00:08:23] agreement with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. As
[00:08:26] Islamabad continues to call for peace and
[00:08:29] deescalation, what is the shifting security
[00:08:33] landscape mean for the region? In our second
[00:08:36] segment we examine Trump's admin the Donald Trump
[00:08:40] administration's expanding immigration. crackdown, including the
[00:08:44] suspension of green card processing for major technological companies
[00:08:48] and investigations into leading us
[00:08:51] universities. as Washington tightens scrutiny the
[00:08:55] skilled foreign workers and international research
[00:08:58] questions are mounting over the future of global
[00:09:02] talent, mobility and America's
[00:09:04] competitive competitiveness
[00:09:08] in the technology sector, all this and more on perspective.
[00:09:12] today we have with us Hashamul umesi who is senior advisor
[00:09:16] on Yemen
[00:09:20] and on from European Institute of
[00:09:24] Peace, we also have with us Paul
[00:09:27] Fridge senior fellow middle east institute Switzerland executive in residence
[00:09:31] Geneva Center for security policy joining us. A little
[00:09:35] later on will also have other guests during the course the
[00:09:38] program. Welcome to the program Hisham.
[00:09:43] when we look at Babel Mandap,
[00:09:45] for example, the fact that it's become critical point in this
[00:09:48] regional, what strategic objectives are
[00:09:52] the how these sort of pursuing by threatening
[00:09:56] maritime traffic and of course what it
[00:09:59] means for this vital international shipping route,
[00:10:03] corridor, and and what are the implications in your opinion for regional
[00:10:07] security, and also what it means as far as
[00:10:11] global... security at
[00:10:13] this
[00:10:18] time,
[00:10:20] tot is want to exert pressure on the red sea on
[00:10:23] maritime trade. to get this economic and political
[00:10:27] leverage, they understand very well that the world will only pay attention to
[00:10:31] them if they make noise outside the border of yemen, yemen has been dubbed for
[00:10:35] the longest time for the past 12 years the conflict as the forgotten
[00:10:38] war, and to get some attention to get some
[00:10:41] recognition and to get that stick
[00:10:45] ofage, they needed to attack all these ships in the red sea,
[00:10:49] making that economic impact on global trade, but also
[00:10:52] threatening regional countries as well. because they ship lot of oil through that
[00:10:56] straight, so it's critical for their countries, for the
[00:11:00] stability their countries, and this is one the reasons why they also in the
[00:11:04] same way are threatening Saudi Arabia the past few
[00:11:08] weeks by attacking infrastructure within Riyadh, within
[00:11:12] other parts of Saudi Arabia, attacking aramco, attacking, I remember the
[00:11:16] electricity grid as well, and they'll continue to do that, because that's how
[00:11:20] they raised the cost the conflict, they learned that from the Iranians
[00:11:23] and that's how they kind of
[00:11:27] create this calculus where they can extract concessions, not just
[00:11:31] from Saudi, but also from regional and international
[00:11:34] stakeholders.
[00:11:36] fair enough, um, we also have with
[00:11:39] us Paul, but before
[00:11:43] we go to him, in terms of in terms the huti's
[00:11:46] actions, Hisham, when we look at you,
[00:11:49] Yemen's internal conflict and and the political
[00:11:52] landscape so to speak, how have
[00:11:55] years of political you know fragmentation,
[00:11:59] struggle for power, failure to reach a durable settlement
[00:12:03] enabled the hauties to consolidate their authority and
[00:12:06] expand their regional ambition,
[00:12:10] you know, because we know that internally also the situation and the fact that they've
[00:12:14] been able to do this, how how do you look at that in terms of
[00:12:17] what's happening now and the internal situation?
[00:12:21] that's actually an excellent question, this is what i've been saying for the for the... last 10
[00:12:25] years is that the huties
[00:12:29] owe their rise to the Iranian support, but also to the fragmentation
[00:12:33] and the division within Yemen, it's it's an inversal
[00:12:37] proportional relationship where the weaker the yemini factions
[00:12:40] are the stronger that the hutis grow, they managed to exploit all those
[00:12:44] divisions, the instability, the failure the state
[00:12:48] since since 2010 since the uprisings that accompanied the arab
[00:12:52] spring and managed to hijack the
[00:12:56] state and by doing so they entrenched themselves
[00:13:00] a position of power and throughout the past 10 years the conflict since
[00:13:04] 2015 they managed to
[00:13:07] expand across Yemen moving all the way to the west
[00:13:10] coast and that's what you hearing a lot of fighting now for instance in Babelmandab in the
[00:13:14] Red Sea because they want additional territories but they owe that as
[00:13:18] well because the internal fragmentation and I've
[00:13:22] always said if you want to defeat the Hut. is you
[00:13:26] need to unify the yemini factions led by the yemini government because
[00:13:29] only them can dislodge the hoothis from
[00:13:33] places like them the central part of yemen but also the capital
[00:13:37] san there needs to be a concerted effort backed by the regional international
[00:13:41] community and luckily for the time being you have the saudis back in the yemen
[00:13:45] government supporting them but ultimately this is a
[00:13:48] yemeny fight this is not and i remember lot of people
[00:13:52] trying to pitch it as a saudi versus fight It's not, it
[00:13:56] never was, it was the Yemenis that wanted to take back the
[00:13:59] country from the Hitis, but they also needed support from regional partners
[00:14:03] and our closest neighbor traditionally for the past 100 years have been Saudi Arabia, and
[00:14:07] that's one the reasons why it was the Saudis that let the
[00:14:10] coalition that helped attempting to restore
[00:14:14] the state in 2015, but but where
[00:14:18] does the how these actually derive
[00:14:21] authority within Yemen today, when you look at
[00:14:24] you know the... fact that the main sources their political,
[00:14:28] financial, military power and and of course,
[00:14:31] how how do they use that to control territory, you
[00:14:35] in terms of trying to understand and also the fact that they
[00:14:39] they are able to somehow sustain their position,
[00:14:41] right? yep, well
[00:14:44] one one the important things that lot of people
[00:14:46] need to understand is that the his did not spring into the scene just in the past 15
[00:14:49] years, the hutis were there for the past thousand years, we had the
[00:14:53] imat a monarchy. in yemen for the better part the
[00:14:57] past 1ous years, which was toppled in the
[00:15:00] 1960s. these are remonants of that
[00:15:03] regime that stayed in the northern part the
[00:15:07] country, and they managed to build the power over the
[00:15:11] past 25 years, beginning into the 2000s and in
[00:15:15] 2004 they launched an offensive in the north part the
[00:15:19] country, which led to six consecutive wars between 2004 and
[00:15:22] 2009, so the is actually there for hundreds of
[00:15:26] years, but they managed capitalizing on the
[00:15:30] instability in 2010, 2011 to expand
[00:15:33] their influence and exploiting the infighting. between the
[00:15:37] various factions, tribal and government and military between the
[00:15:41] period of 2011 and 2015, to jump on the scene, hijack the
[00:15:45] state, take over the capital, take over other parts of
[00:15:49] one, two, they also owe their rise because the
[00:15:53] support that they've gotten extensive support that they've gotten from Iran, they
[00:15:56] they got in financial support, they've gotten ballistic missiles, they've gotten cruise
[00:16:00] missiles, they've gotten drones, they've gotten lot of training not just from
[00:16:04] Iran, they've got a lot of training from Hizbollah as well. "and there's a lot the
[00:16:08] actually IRGC officers on the ground on the
[00:16:12] battlefield as commanders directing the
[00:16:15] war in multiple frontlines in Yemen and that includes
[00:16:19] Hisballah and IRGC
[00:16:21] so they're getting lot of support and
[00:16:24] in terms of question
[00:16:27] of course they've managed to have that kind of support that then
[00:16:31] allows them to exert this kind of
[00:16:34] external influence or extern'. far
[00:16:37] beyond the territory, how dangerous
[00:16:41] is it when when this kind of a grouping can
[00:16:44] happen and and then and then potentially have
[00:16:47] consequences outside a country's territory
[00:16:51] when we look at you in the light of this particular instance when we see the
[00:16:55] houtheis, extremely extremely concerning, you have
[00:16:59] to remember the past couple years, howthies sank or attacked
[00:17:03] close to 100 ships and there, you're not talking about the conflict.
[00:17:07] says
[00:17:07] it is not contained within the borders of Yemen, you're talking about the conflict had a spillover
[00:17:11] effect, remember during the Gaza crisis, heuties wanted to
[00:17:15] jump into the fray trying to pitch themselves as the banguard the Muslim, the
[00:17:19] Arab nation by attacking also Israel,
[00:17:22] and beyond that they started attacking ships, tried to extract tols
[00:17:26] from ships passing through the red sea, they wanted to be seen as regional
[00:17:30] player that would have say an international politics, so if anything does not
[00:17:34] go their way, irrespective if it is concerning
[00:17:38] Yemen or not, they want to exert that political
[00:17:41] pressure to get this recognition as regional
[00:17:45] player, and this is one the reasons why they attacked multiple ships from different
[00:17:49] countries, not just saudis now lately, but in the past they've attacked British ships,
[00:17:52] they've attacked Dutch ships, they've attacked American ships and all
[00:17:56] sorts of ships, because they wanted that recognition, and it's extremely
[00:18:00] difficult and extremely dangerous because at the end the day you're dealing with a
[00:18:04] militia, so few tolerate that,
[00:18:07] "you're only postponing yet another bout of conflict where the
[00:18:11] militia is going to blackmail international community seeking additional
[00:18:15] concessions and this is why I've always been talking to international partners and regional partners is
[00:18:18] that you need to address the root the conflict, you need to decisively deal with the hoothies,
[00:18:22] you cannot keep passing the buck and postponing the issue
[00:18:26] through temporary ceasefires or non-sustainable
[00:18:30] agreements that will allow the houties to stay in control,
[00:18:34] especially when they have control over the means the states and tax. ation and all
[00:18:38] revenues so in terms the consequences
[00:18:42] of of this kind of you
[00:18:45] know a group if one can call it that and and
[00:18:48] you know of course the kind of exercising of
[00:18:52] course influence outside the territory what kind of reaction
[00:18:56] do you overall you expect after what we've seen also and
[00:19:00] for Yemen also in particular what do you expect in the
[00:19:03] future unfortunately
[00:19:06] based on the track record the past three years, there has
[00:19:10] been some reactions, you've seen the Americans attack the Hutis, you've seen the
[00:19:14] Europeans create the speed's naval force to protect the ships
[00:19:18] in the red sea, but there they have always been half hearted
[00:19:22] measures, they never actually delt a blow to the
[00:19:25] hoothies, it was always a protective force, it
[00:19:29] was always
[00:19:31] um, it's just a bare minimum, they did not deal with the hoothies and
[00:19:35] dislodging the hoothies, they only... tried to protect some the ships in the red
[00:19:39] sea while leaving the infrastructure in place, while
[00:19:42] leaving the huti threat in place, which only
[00:19:46] means that they're postponing the problem,
[00:19:49] and come few months the his will come
[00:19:53] back, raise the bar, demand additional concessions, and
[00:19:57] this is devastating, and this is what happened with Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia signed an agreement with the
[00:20:00] hoothis in 2022, hoping to deescalate
[00:20:04] this way situation, hoping there's going to be calmer
[00:20:08] heads that will prevail amongst the huti movement, but we warn back
[00:20:12] at the time is that the hutis are only binding their time to
[00:20:15] regroup, restock, they will come back
[00:20:19] and they will ask for additional concessions and that's basically what they did right
[00:20:22] now,
[00:20:26] when we look at in terms of you know regional states and
[00:20:30] their response to the houthi attacks, the threats also
[00:20:34] against babal mandap, maritime commerce, what combination? of
[00:20:37] maritime security, deterrence, regional
[00:20:40] cooperation, political engagement
[00:20:43] you think could make difference at this point, you're also
[00:20:47] looking at the Saudi Arabia situation, to to sort
[00:20:51] of deescalate for things to at
[00:20:54] least
[00:20:55] you know sort of what can one say go back to a state
[00:20:59] of normalcy let's say
[00:21:02] well okay you need to
[00:21:05] begin with the cutting or choking the air out
[00:21:09] the huti means you need to economically kind of basically
[00:21:13] isolate them one two you cannot just protect the red
[00:21:16] sea without dislogging the hoothies from multiple ares
[00:21:20] three, this is a war that cannot be won just by aerial campaign,
[00:21:24] we've been there done that since 2015 and it did not dislodge the houties, what you
[00:21:28] need is ground forces to take over the houti controlled
[00:21:32] areas, you need to limit the power, i've heard lot of arguments
[00:21:36] the past two days people saying like if they government forces managed to secure the
[00:21:40] west coast then it's the end to the threat, that is a
[00:21:43] completely false, huties managed to attack the
[00:21:47] ships over the past two years when the... did not control
[00:21:50] b, well beyond uh within from
[00:21:54] the internal parts of yemen they attack the ships, so you don't need just to
[00:21:58] secure, you need to dislage the hoothies from the heartland and
[00:22:02] from places like the capital sal, for as long as
[00:22:06] people continue to treat the hoothis as a viable political party, we're not getting
[00:22:09] anywhere, hutis are a militia, they think in mentality of a
[00:22:13] militia, they're maximalist, they also always
[00:22:16] come back and raise the bar, if you don't limit... their military
[00:22:20] power, if you don't have that breaking point where you isolate them, we're
[00:22:24] not going to get anywhere. how do
[00:22:28] you in terms the the nexus when we look at Israel in
[00:22:32] particular, how does it factor in and and how
[00:22:35] you know the consequences of that nexus
[00:22:39] itself, do you think that it's been exposed enough? do you expect it to
[00:22:43] sort of have you know
[00:22:44] the the ramifications of that for the world, how do you look at that?
[00:22:48] well, let's refocus that. bit on yemen have
[00:22:52] had happened over the past three years especially with the the Gaza
[00:22:56] crisis, the hoti has managed to expos that to their
[00:22:58] advantage, they've seen how the world
[00:23:01] failed to act in defending the
[00:23:05] Palestinians and they use that
[00:23:08] to recruit fighters on the ground and lot of other factions did the same thing
[00:23:12] as well, but the is exploited it a very good way bause they have a really good PR
[00:23:16] machine and they recruitted tens of thousands of fighters.
[00:23:21] and and trying to position themselves as the strongest member the
[00:23:24] axis of resistance that is led by Iran and in doing so they
[00:23:28] managed to also get recruits from across the red sea and build
[00:23:32] relationships with the shabab in Somalia
[00:23:36] and they did so by also recruiting people from Syria from Lebanon and
[00:23:40] in Iraq as well and they built also opened offices even there
[00:23:43] so they built this regional network on the premise
[00:23:47] of dealing with Israel. but while having
[00:23:51] at heart their own objectives, their own max maximalist
[00:23:55] objectives and expanding their influence not just at the southern tip the peninsula,
[00:23:59] but regional influence, and they built this huge
[00:24:02] network of and also arsenal if i may
[00:24:06] that they could use any given moment, whether it's in regards to
[00:24:10] Israel or others, and that's what they did over the past month, what they started
[00:24:14] attacking Saudi Arabia, they didn't attack Israel,
[00:24:16] they attack Saudi Arabia, but what about you?
[00:24:20] reports of the delegation, when you look at the US delegation meeting how
[00:24:24] these and and the effects of that, do you think how
[00:24:27] credible and and you think that there is a possibility that
[00:24:31] something will emerge from there also? how do you look at
[00:24:34] that? well the UN led peace process is still
[00:24:38] ongoing, yes there's been a lot of multiple impediments
[00:24:41] and the it's a steep hill
[00:24:45] to climb especially during escalation so
[00:24:48] they always try to deescalate. where cooler heads would prevail and
[00:24:52] they will manage to bring people to the table, unfortunately every
[00:24:55] time they get to to that point something or the other happens and
[00:24:59] we're back into fighting mode between the various factions and always it's
[00:25:03] triggered by the hoothis and this is where we at now for instance, the un
[00:25:06] envoy delivered his remarks yesterday and he basically
[00:25:09] said we will continue on the path
[00:25:13] of uh trying to get a peace process
[00:25:17] started - ultimate.
[00:25:20] reconciliation, but right now
[00:25:24] emotions are high, right now the fighting is still ongoing, right now the dust
[00:25:28] has not settled, right now all the groups are trying to
[00:25:31] get as much territory as possible before they eventually move into
[00:25:35] negotiations, and this is one the questions that lot of people have asked
[00:25:38] me and they said, do you think government is going to completely
[00:25:42] obritate the hutis or the is going to be able to completely ablutate government,
[00:25:46] and i said like that's going to be difficult because you're talking about a complete massacre.
[00:25:50] 'if you want to wipe up
[00:25:52] the hutis, I don't think that's feasible, and vice
[00:25:55] versa, the hutis cannot wipe out half the country,
[00:25:59] eventually inevitably you reach an agreement, but the question'.
[00:26:03] is when we get to the table who's going to have the upper hand and right
[00:26:07] now is have leverage and they need to dilute that
[00:26:17] I want to move on we have with us Paul fritch who is a senior fellow institute
[00:26:21] switzerland executive and residence geneva center for security policy joining
[00:26:25] us always a pleasure having you Paul when we look at the
[00:26:28] midterm elections Iran Hormers and of course you
[00:26:32] the political cost of this war, how do you look at this? as far as the
[00:26:36] mid-term elections are concerned, of course the strategic
[00:26:40] constraint, if one can call it that, as far as Donald Trump
[00:26:44] administration is concerned, once the the
[00:26:48] pre-election situation versus the post election situation, how would
[00:26:52] how do you look at it and and you think it will be a change scenario
[00:26:56] considering what we know about the position of of you
[00:27:00] know at this time as far as the Donald Trump administration is
[00:27:03] concerned? yes, well, I think
[00:27:07] the strategic constraint on the
[00:27:10] president is uh, not so much the midterms
[00:27:14] themselves, the the strategic constraint is public
[00:27:17] opinion uh, that is by and large opposed to
[00:27:21] this war, and we see the mid-term
[00:27:25] election campaigns as an expression of that, and
[00:27:29] we had series of senate debates, this...
[00:27:32] week and Republican candidates have
[00:27:35] struggled to explain their formal support for the
[00:27:39] war in terms their votes against
[00:27:42] congressional resolutions that have sought to uh reign in President Trump's
[00:27:46] authority, and yes, I think that the
[00:27:50] midterms, if the polls are to be believed, are
[00:27:54] probably going to send major
[00:27:58] signal of a public rebuke the
[00:28:01] administration. policy, but but when
[00:28:05] if we you know, like you said, it's it's going to send a public signal of
[00:28:09] rebuke, does it,
[00:28:12] do you think to a man like President Donald Trump, do you think it's going to
[00:28:15] matter in the sense that right now, in terms of this is his
[00:28:19] second term, so in terms of what he's
[00:28:22] expecting, do you think he's thinking about his legacy, do you think that you
[00:28:26] know he is thinking about bettering the the
[00:28:30] original Obama agreement, or you
[00:28:32] I think we spoke earlier that is no
[00:28:34] more on
[00:28:35] the table, it's not something that's likely to happen anymore,
[00:28:39] so what is what is he going to be thinking, not that one can really
[00:28:42] judge, but what is your opinion
[00:28:44] generally? well, we have to remember that it's
[00:28:48] not the only constraint on president Trump, his
[00:28:52] military options have become more constrained by virtue
[00:28:56] of simple military realities, the uh force that's
[00:28:59] currently deployed in the Persian Gulf cannot remain there.
[00:29:02] indefinitely
[00:29:04] uh the loss the naval support activity in Bahrain um has
[00:29:08] strained uh logistical supply chains um we've
[00:29:11] seen um aircraft carrier groups remain deployed well
[00:29:15] beyond uh the point where um they remained operationally
[00:29:19] effective uh and then uh subsequently taken out of
[00:29:23] service for extended periods of time for emergency maintenance
[00:29:27] we saw that with the USS Gerald Ford we saw that with the USS Abraham
[00:29:31] Lincoln um these are um these
[00:29:34] are assets that the US has in limited quantities and it can't
[00:29:38] continue this pace and intensity of deployment
[00:29:42] indefinitely. um, if there is a change in control of
[00:29:46] Congress and Congress is willing to assert its prerogatives uh more
[00:29:50] aggressively in terms of restricting funding and
[00:29:53] uh passing concrete legislative
[00:29:57] constraints on the president's ability to conduct this war
[00:30:00] then uh that uh further constrain President Trump in
[00:30:04] the the options that he has. Um, we've seen the depletion of
[00:30:08] critical munitions worldwide. The US has
[00:30:12] has lost between half and two-thirds of its supplies
[00:30:15] of critical offensive and
[00:30:19] defensive munitions, tomahawk missiles, patriot pack
[00:30:23] 3 interceptors, that interceptors. These are developments
[00:30:27] that have an impact not only with regard to this conflict, but also with
[00:30:31] regard to the strength the US. military deterrant in Asia, in
[00:30:34] Europe, so uh, yes, the sorry, go
[00:30:38] ahead, is it fact that
[00:30:42] the US can you, continue this war at least
[00:30:46] on the military front indefinitely, or you
[00:30:50] think that you within these constraints,
[00:30:52] no, no, I don't think, I don't think that it's
[00:30:56] sustainable, I think that it can continue,