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20261012 210000 UTC
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[00:00:03] of
[00:00:10] of
[00:00:17] Hello and as salam alaikum, welcome to Pakistan TV
[00:00:20] with the news of this hour, I'm saying
[00:00:21] of Bukhari, let's have look at the
[00:00:23] of headlines.
[00:00:31] of
[00:00:36] of
[00:00:37] of Deputy prime minister and foreign
[00:00:41] minister says Pakistan is committed to the complete
[00:00:44] of elimination of terrorism and
[00:00:45] of demands of
[00:00:46] of taliban regime to stop all support to terrorist addressing a counter terrorism
[00:00:49] conference star stresses that attacks originating from soil must
[00:00:53] end and world mass technology Pakistan
[00:00:56] sacrifices.
[00:01:02] Federal minister of information and broadcasting says
[00:01:05] of Pakistan is facing the major challenge of terrorism in extremism addressing a conference in
[00:01:09] of counter terrorism. The minister said thousands of
[00:01:12] of terrorists are living in safe havens of Afghan
[00:01:16] of soil.
[00:01:20] of
[00:01:26] of
[00:01:30] of
[00:01:42] Ministry of
[00:01:43] of information and broadcasting projects the Afghan taliban regime's rehitoric and
[00:01:46] division with the well documented terrorist threat eminating from Afghanistan
[00:01:50] refms Pakistan's commitment to dialogue and ages the regime to honor
[00:01:54] of its counter terrorism commitments and take verificable action against
[00:01:58] of terrorist sanctuaries and support network.
[00:02:01] of
[00:02:06] Chief of Joint chiefs of
[00:02:08] of staff of Brazil's
[00:02:10] admiral,
[00:02:14] calls and field marshall GHQ
[00:02:16] to discuss regional security and enhanced defense
[00:02:18] cooperation.
[00:02:25] Oman's
[00:02:26] prime minister will
[00:02:26] of visit Pakistan today for the eighth session
[00:02:28] of the Pakistan Oman. Ministrial commission at the invitation of deputy prime
[00:02:32] minister.
[00:02:39] A pakistani national is killed and 11 others are boomted to
[00:02:42] refresh the military strikes in
[00:02:44] of Raad International Airport marking the second attack on the Saudi Capitals airport in
[00:02:48] two
[00:02:51] in days.
[00:02:56] of The
[00:02:57] a yemen army carries out series fair strikes against. air positions in
[00:03:00] the southwestern province
[00:03:02] of the
[00:03:02] emit escalating military
[00:03:03] tensions.
[00:03:12] Saudi Arabia extends the shut down of Rav airport following with the attacks
[00:03:16] while the energy minister calls for serious response
[00:03:18] and rising security
[00:03:22] of concerns. Iran is reviewing
[00:03:26] Washington's response to its almost proposal saying reopening the street. and
[00:03:30] restoring security must be
[00:03:31] of priorities
[00:03:32] in as diplomatic contacts continue through
[00:03:34] mediators.
[00:03:39] At least six
[00:03:40] in people have been killed and nine others injured in separate Russian strikes on Ukraine
[00:03:44] raising fresh concerns about the effectiveness of an energy cere announced by his
[00:03:48] president Donald
[00:03:50] of Trump.
[00:04:25] of there's with the headlines now the news
[00:04:29] of and detailed. Prime Minister and formen Minister Sar has said
[00:04:32] Pakistan has
[00:04:33] a written story of everlasting sacrifices in the war on terror
[00:04:37] offering more than 90 thousand lives and suffering severe damage to its
[00:04:41] economy, addressing a conference on the changing
[00:04:43] of landscape of counter
[00:04:44] of terrorism in Islamabad, the deputy prime minister said Pakistan face terrorism
[00:04:48] with courage, bravery and
[00:04:50] of resilience, he
[00:04:51] a said on the director field marshall seminar operations against terrorists
[00:04:55] are being conducted daily and every province has to play its role, speaking
[00:04:59] about Afghanistan. Santa
[00:05:00] of said Pakistan has only one demand that Afghan territory not to be used for
[00:05:04] terrorism, he said Pakistan has continued to press
[00:05:07] the Afghan regime and has visited Afghanistan for talks deputy
[00:05:11] Prime Minister. said a trilateral meeting of Pakistan, China
[00:05:15] and Afghanistan was held in Kabul in August 2025, but the Afghan
[00:05:18] authorities did not fulfill their commitments. He also said the presence
[00:05:22] the ban TTP and other terrorist groups in Afghanistan is a threat to regional
[00:05:26] peace and that terrorists infiltrate across the border to attack soldiers and
[00:05:30] citizens. The deputy prime minister said terrorism from soil is not
[00:05:34] acceptable under any circumstances and the fan Taliban regime must
[00:05:38] immediately stop all support to terrorists including weapons. He
[00:05:41] reaffirmed that Pakistan is committed to the complete elimination of
[00:05:45] terrorism,
[00:05:51] federal minister for information and broadcasting has said that Pakistan
[00:05:55] is facing the major challenge of terrorism and extremism, addressing a
[00:05:59] conference on the changing landscape of counter terrorism, he said Pakistan made the
[00:06:03] greatest sacrifices in the war on terror and suffered economic losses for
[00:06:07] more than 100 billion dollars. The minister said Pakistan made the well
[00:06:11] safer by fighting. the war against terrorism, he added that
[00:06:14] Pakistan played the role of mediator between the United States and Iran and made a
[00:06:18] full contribution to establishing peace in the region. Speaking about
[00:06:22] Afghanistan, Paris said a peaceful and stable Afghanistan is in the
[00:06:26] interest of both Pakistan and divided region. Federal
[00:06:29] minister said Pakistan has repeatedly asked the
[00:06:33] fun regime on various forums to play its role in eliminating terrorism.
[00:06:37] He said Parted four million of fts for 40 years, adding that the
[00:06:41] world is a bitness to the. country's hospitality and love for Afghan
[00:06:44] refugees. The minister claimed that more than 2000 terrorists are
[00:06:48] present in Afghanistan including over 6000 TTP militants have taken
[00:06:52] refuge there. He said these terrorists are living in safe
[00:06:55] Havens on Afghan soil and receiving all kinds of training. Tar
[00:06:59] said Pakistan wants an
[00:07:01] end to extremism and militancy in Afghanistan. He also said the people of Kaibar
[00:07:05] Pakhtunkhah are
[00:07:06] patriots.
[00:08:00] Hello, welcome to the news room with Sunna. Today we're going to be taking a look at the latest
[00:08:04] developments taking place. The first segment is going to focus on what is happening on the
[00:08:08] front between the rebels and Saudi Arabia and in the
[00:08:12] latest. attacks against the airport in Riyadh, we have seen
[00:08:15] that number of people have been killed and killed and several others injured, there
[00:08:19] is of course um lot of actions that have been taken with
[00:08:23] regards to condemnation coming in uh from the
[00:08:27] R4 and also of course Saudi Arabia saying that now any
[00:08:31] consequences or responses uh will be the
[00:08:33] responsibility thehi rebels, this is of course the latest
[00:08:37] strikes that have been seen at the Riyadh Airport uh which has resulted
[00:08:41] in the loss of lives and injuries to many others and this
[00:08:44] of course then points to the question of whether or not there will be other
[00:08:48] forces joining in the conflict, particularly the United States in which Mr. Trump
[00:08:51] was heard saying on the weekend that he's deciding whether or not the US is
[00:08:55] going to be actively taking part in the strikes and the Saudi
[00:08:59] response to these offenses. Pakistan of course is also one the countries
[00:09:03] that's condemned these strikes and expressed solidarity with Saudi Arabia, it's also
[00:09:07] of course part the Makka alliance with Turkey and Saudi
[00:09:11] Arabia and so... what sort of support will be there by these countries is
[00:09:15] also going to be important as the situation unfolds. next we're going to take
[00:09:18] a look at what is happening between the United States and
[00:09:22] Iran. in particular of course the Iranian statements
[00:09:26] coming in that the US response to their earlier proposal is
[00:09:30] currently under review and uh that they're going to
[00:09:33] be sending messages through the intermediaries when that
[00:09:37] review is complete. of course it remains to be seen what exactly will be part of
[00:09:41] that but in the inition. responses that were reportedly
[00:09:44] received, Iran has said that the US has not
[00:09:48] addressed the seven conditions properly in
[00:09:51] terms of what has been earlier proposed by Iran to the reopening
[00:09:55] the straight of her moves, what essentially lies is the United
[00:09:59] States emphasis on Iran's nuclear program and Iran's emphasis
[00:10:03] on return to the mou in June and focus first on the reopening
[00:10:07] of this rate of hermus so it remains to be seen what is going to be the extent to this
[00:10:11] review and what would that? in terms the way forward in this conversation, particularly in the
[00:10:15] backdrop of what's happening between the huti rebels in Saudi Arabia and which
[00:10:19] we've reportedly also heard that Iran has
[00:10:22] expressed its willingness uh to provide
[00:10:26] any sort of mediation efforts between the two sides and
[00:10:30] lastly we're going to take a look in terms of what's happening within pakistan
[00:10:33] and the federal cabinets and the president's
[00:10:37] decision to impose the emergency and governor rule in
[00:10:41] KP as per article 232 and 234
[00:10:44] is important also in terms of what that means as
[00:10:48] the kind of aspects of law and order and security concerns that
[00:10:52] were developing in the KP province and also so in terms the
[00:10:56] fight against terrorism that Pakistan has been fighting for quite some time now
[00:11:00] and what of course has been sit as concerns of deliberate
[00:11:04] disengagement from the policy of terrorism by the KP government, what that means
[00:11:08] and what will be the future the KP province and how exactly
[00:11:12] these articles are going to affect what is going on within the province
[00:11:16] will be important to discuss, but also in terms of what the larger goal of
[00:11:19] fighting against terrorism is visib the threat eminating from within
[00:11:23] Afghanistan and the safe. that the Afghan taliban regime continue to
[00:11:27] provide to the terrorist organizations there, that will the focus at the end
[00:11:30] the show to start off with what is happening rebels in Saudi Arabia we have been joined by
[00:11:34] Dr. Kamran Bukhari who is the senior director the New Lions institute for strategy
[00:11:38] and policy and senior resident fellow with the middle east policy council in
[00:11:42] Washington. Thank you very much Dr. Kamran for joining us in the news room. It's
[00:11:45] pleasure having you once again. When we're taking a look at what's going on between the huti
[00:11:49] rebels and Saudi Arabia and the latest attack on on the
[00:11:53] airport of course these. seriousness the matter has been
[00:11:56] risen um and we've seen that many countries have expressed
[00:12:00] solidarity and the US has also said it's considering whether or not is going to
[00:12:04] be joining in um what do you think will be the likely next step in terms
[00:12:08] the saudi response how that will escalate the situation and what other
[00:12:12] countries do you think um are likely going to join this
[00:12:15] conflict? thanks for having me
[00:12:18] so look next steps are the
[00:12:22] imperative the saudis to...
[00:12:55] supporting the internationally back government based in Aiden that is
[00:12:59] trying to fight the hooties on the ground, they are, but these attacks
[00:13:02] continue, so the Saudis have to do something
[00:13:06] to put pause on this at least, so the Saudis
[00:13:10] don't have the ability to strike back just themselves,
[00:13:14] they're doing whatever they can on their own, so what that
[00:13:17] means is that they need US assistance, as you rightfully
[00:13:20] said that the United States doesn't look like it's going
[00:13:24] to... enter this conflict in any
[00:13:28] significant way, it may provide intelligence, it may do a few air
[00:13:32] strikes, it will provide hardware and logistics and satellite
[00:13:35] support, but I think that it will fall to the
[00:13:39] coalition that was formed after the the macca
[00:13:42] accords, and I think that you know the Saudis are
[00:13:46] definitely looking at Pakistan and Saudi and
[00:13:49] Turkey, both countries don't want to dive into this, they have
[00:13:53] their own respective issues. whose priorities to deal with, but they can't
[00:13:57] let this go unchecked uh, because uh, we're we haven't
[00:14:01] seen this kind of threat emerge for the Saudi
[00:14:04] kingdom a long time. I mean, these kind of strikes
[00:14:08] at airports and energy facilities were not even seen
[00:14:12] during the 2015-2022 war that between
[00:14:16] the Saudis and the Hutis that led to a cease fire, so this is in some
[00:14:20] ways unprecedented. Right,
[00:14:23] absolutely, but what we've
[00:14:24] heard from Mr. Trump over the weekend to be slightly different from what he had earlier said in terms of
[00:14:28] latently refusing any active role that the US
[00:14:32] has to play while this may also just be rhetoric do you think that there is a real consideration
[00:14:36] by the US administration to join
[00:14:38] forces? there has to be
[00:14:41] because I published an article on this this morning and
[00:14:45] so what I argued is uh on one hand it's not in
[00:14:49] the interest the United States to merge the two battle
[00:14:52] spaces, the first one being the US. Iran war that that
[00:14:56] the United States is trying to bring to closure, and the second one is the Saudi
[00:15:00] Houti conflict, so these are two separate battlefields, because
[00:15:04] unlike Hezbullah and the Iraqi Shia militias, the Hutis are
[00:15:08] not your traditional proxy the Iranians, they're their own actor, they're
[00:15:12] independent and they take their decisions independently, yes they
[00:15:16] will cooperate and coordinate with Iran, they will you
[00:15:19] know get assistance from them, both financial and
[00:15:23] material, but it's not the same as normal
[00:15:26] proxy would, so the United States understands that, and the United States wants to
[00:15:30] keep it that way, where the Saudi Huthi thing is dealt
[00:15:34] with separately from the war in. now obviously Iran
[00:15:38] wants to leverage this as much as possible and is already doing
[00:15:42] that, but I think whatever the United States does
[00:15:46] has to factor this imperative in mind, and again I
[00:15:49] said, as I said, there's a lot, the United
[00:15:53] States already dealing with Iran, they have an election coming up which is weighing
[00:15:57] heavily on the Trump White House, so lot
[00:16:01] the statements coming out for the administration will reflect
[00:16:04] that, but what they actually do ' will have to be
[00:16:08] carefully thought out, weighing all
[00:16:10] considerations. right, what do you make
[00:16:14] the kind of responses that we've seen by the Yemani government,
[00:16:18] of course back by South the air strikes, but how effective have they been, they have
[00:16:22] regained some the important areas around Babel Manda, but there are many high
[00:16:25] positions rebels still control, will they be able to recapture
[00:16:29] those and will be they able to, will they be able to sustain the ones that they
[00:16:33] have already recaptured?
[00:16:37] Yeah, so the areas that my understanding is that the areas that they
[00:16:41] recaptured are the ones they recently lost the Hutis when the Hutis did that
[00:16:45] push southwards along the coast the Red Sea,
[00:16:48] and so they're trying to regain those areas,
[00:16:52] in other words, restore sort the status quo anti before
[00:16:56] this current phase the conflict broke
[00:16:59] out, but I don't think that the
[00:17:02] government in the internationally recognized government back by Raad
[00:17:06] has the where with. to push further up north, that will
[00:17:10] require far more force being applied both on the
[00:17:13] ground and in the air, and of course it will need a naval
[00:17:17] component to it as well, that kind of
[00:17:21] firepower has not been brought to bear just yet, it'll take time
[00:17:25] before that happens, but will it dislodge the
[00:17:29] hootis? i don't think so, i i think that we're
[00:17:33] going to end up in another stalemate, it will all depend where the lines are
[00:17:36] drawn. and that is a function of supply lines for both
[00:17:40] sides, how far south can the hootis project their
[00:17:44] supply lines, do they how far south do they run so that they can actually
[00:17:47] take over additional areas and actually hold them, and same goes for the
[00:17:51] internationally recognized government, how far north can they push,
[00:17:55] so there I think the geopolitically
[00:17:57] significant piece of real estate in the country is
[00:18:01] still very much under the control the hoothies and I don't
[00:18:05] see you ' thing short of a large
[00:18:09] scale operation involving a coalition, changing that, and I just don't
[00:18:13] see the signs that that is about to happen anytime
[00:18:16] soon. Right, we've of course seen that there's been
[00:18:20] a recent meeting the Makacca alliance in
[00:18:23] Riyad, and there was actual decisions taken with regards to
[00:18:27] deployment of forces by Turkey and Pakistan, would this situation
[00:18:31] developing, what do you think will be the future and the extent the participation by these
[00:18:35] countries in this conflict? while we know that the
[00:18:39] agreement still has to be ratified by the turkia
[00:18:41] parliament, correct, and and and correct
[00:18:45] me if I'm wrong, that Pakistan hasn't ratified it either,
[00:18:49] but I don't know what the rules are over there, does it is it okay
[00:18:53] just for the cabinet to approve it, or does the Pakistani parliament also need
[00:18:57] to ratify that, so yes, both those components are
[00:19:00] prerequisites, at least as my understanding goes, but in
[00:19:04] terms of actual involvement, that will depend
[00:19:07] on the nature the threat to Saudi Arabia, I don't
[00:19:11] think ground forces will be introduced in other
[00:19:15] words, I don't think Pakistan or Turkey Turkey will send ground forces
[00:19:19] into Yemen, not because they don't subjectively want to, that
[00:19:23] is the case, that is true, but also because it's
[00:19:26] unnecessary, the the challenge to Saudi
[00:19:29] Arabia is one from the air, how do you degrade
[00:19:33] houti capabilities to fire ballistic crew and cruise missiles?
[00:19:37] as well as drones at energy facilities
[00:19:41] and aviation targets and so on and so forth, broader
[00:19:44] infrastructure, so that is a function of
[00:19:48] air power and air defenses, so it's a technical
[00:19:52] problem that Pakistan and Turkey and even the United States
[00:19:56] will have to sort of help the Saudis address and
[00:20:00] so
[00:20:01] I i that's why I don't think that because the hoothies are not invading
[00:20:04] Saudi soil, if that should that have... happen then of course
[00:20:08] you'll see ground troops engaging you know pakistani troops
[00:20:12] that are already there,
[00:20:14] dgispr acknowledged, I think
[00:20:16] it was few days ago to CNN that there are already
[00:20:19] Pakistani forces on the ground and I believe aviation assets
[00:20:23] as well as naval assets, so the the deployment
[00:20:27] of each these type different types of forces will depend on the mission
[00:20:31] set and what is it that the is the first order of business,
[00:20:35] I think the first order of business is to bring call to these air
[00:20:38] strikes right, we've also seen
[00:20:42] that Iran has offered mediation
[00:20:45] between the rebels and Saudi Arab has done so in the past as well,
[00:20:49] but the current situation with the US and Iran, what does such
[00:20:53] an offer mean? yeah, I mean, look, the
[00:20:57] Iranians are going to do that, I mean, they're going to use whatever leverage they
[00:21:01] have to try and shape the outcome, and and and
[00:21:04] remember, the Houties are using the Iran war
[00:21:08] to consolidate power in Yemen, that's their
[00:21:11] imperative, conversely, the Iranians are using the Huti
[00:21:15] Saudi conflict to deal with the war that
[00:21:19] they're uh... facing from the United States,
[00:21:22] so I think that it's the usage, it's a leveraging
[00:21:26] the the the other battlefield, but it's not as
[00:21:30] if uh the the Iranians can somehow play
[00:21:34] role here, they will use it, because if let's just say let's
[00:21:38] assume that the Saudis entertained the Iranian offer, and
[00:21:42] they say that, okay, sure, uh, what can you do to bring this to an
[00:21:45] end, then there are no free lunches, the Iranians are going to
[00:21:49] ask for... something in return, which is doesn't have to do with
[00:21:53] Yemen or Saudi, it has to do with them, and they and then that
[00:21:57] means that the Saudis will have to
[00:21:58] go to the Americans, and then it depends on the American
[00:22:01] calculus, this is why I said earlier that the US strategy
[00:22:05] is keep these two battle spaces separate.
[00:22:09] Right, absolutely. Let me also welcome in the discussion Richard Sanders is a former US
[00:22:13] diplomat, thank you very much Mr. Richard for joining us and being a part the news room
[00:22:17] when we look at what's happening between the rebels in south. Arabia we've discussed
[00:22:20] earlier what will be the impact of that in the entire
[00:22:24] region of course, but also in particular what is going on between the
[00:22:28] US and Iran, what Mr. Trump has said over the weekend
[00:22:32] is that he's going to be considering joining strikes against theuti
[00:22:36] rubbles is different from his earlier stance, but given the backdrop that's going on between
[00:22:40] US and Iran and already prolonged conflict, what do you think is the
[00:22:43] likely possibility the US actually joining in this
[00:22:46] conflict? well it's always difficult to make
[00:22:50] predictions, I doubt if President Trump has made any kind of final decision on
[00:22:54] his own, I would agree that
[00:22:57] it is not, I think a preferred outcome that the US
[00:23:01] wishes to
[00:23:01] be able to continue concentrating on what's going
[00:23:04] on in the Persian Gulf, it's blockade of Iranian
[00:23:08] oil exports entering directly into
[00:23:12] the confrontation between the His and Saudi
[00:23:16] Arabia is something that it would prefer to avoid, on the other hand
[00:23:20] is under a certain degree of pressure, Saudi Arabia and the US have a
[00:23:24] longstanding connection, and
[00:23:27] also we're seeing airports
[00:23:31] including the major airport for Riyad being being
[00:23:34] attacked, this adds to the instability in the area, the
[00:23:38] question is, would would us assistance
[00:23:41] into the air air assault air attacks
[00:23:45] actually make difference, Saudi Arabia already has a
[00:23:49] considerable air force with the F-15s and
[00:23:53] and euro fighter typhoons, it
[00:23:57] would seem to me that that ought to be able to handle the air the air
[00:24:00] attacks, at least for the time being uh, whether these air attacks are
[00:24:04] enough is another question, because you have essentially
[00:24:07] a asymmetrical kind of
[00:24:11] warfare going on, in Soudia has Arabia has been
[00:24:15] bombing the Houties for a long time, but as long as they
[00:24:18] have these um Iranian supplied cruise missiles, they are
[00:24:22] a position to do damage, even if the ground war
[00:24:25] doesn't necessarily go in their
[00:24:27] favor. right, Dr. Kamran,
[00:24:31] given what is developing between the US and
[00:24:34] Iran, what do you think will be the ways in which
[00:24:38] the two sides can possibly return to the negotiated table while
[00:24:42] what's going on between the huti rebels and soudy arabia, Iran of course I said is reviewing the
[00:24:45] US response, but of course uh there is lot of difference in terms.
[00:24:50] of uh what Iran wants as return to the MaU in June and for the
[00:24:54] straight to be discussed first and the US emphasizing more on Iran's
[00:24:57] nuclear program. So there are
[00:25:01] two elements that uh
[00:25:04] you know one for the US and one for the Iran to to sort
[00:25:08] of shape their behavior. First uh for the US, it's the
[00:25:11] midterms. To me, it seems like there's a bit of a
[00:25:14] time out if you will, unless there's some major provocation on
[00:25:18] the part the Iranians. uh then I don't think the United States will go
[00:25:22] back to kinetic operations before the midterms.
[00:25:26] I could be wrong on that, but that's just sort of my read right now.
[00:25:30] Uh, for the uh,
[00:25:32] Iranians, they're also looking at the mid-terms, but they're looking it a bit
[00:25:36] differently, they're looking at what happens after the midterms, because they
[00:25:40] have to know that come November 4th and until
[00:25:44] the new Congress takes office in in early to mid
[00:25:47] January, uh, there's a window of opportunity. in which Donald Trump will be
[00:25:51] unencumbered in terms of
[00:25:55] exercising military force, they know that and that's what they're preparing. That's why
[00:25:59] you're seeing all these ballistic missile tests that are taking place.
[00:26:02] uh have been taking place over the last couple of days, but there were three them, three
[00:26:06] tests today uh, initially was thought that they were firing
[00:26:10] ballistic missiles, but it turned out that the their tests inside their own
[00:26:14] territory, because they know that uh at that point in
[00:26:18] time the president would have been sort of
[00:26:22] released from that sort of encumbrance the midterm, so he'll have more
[00:26:25] freeer and the handcuffs will come off, so I think that's where
[00:26:29] we are, in the meantime, diplomacy, is is still
[00:26:33] underway, the question is, can the Iranians come to an
[00:26:37] agreement internally such that there is a
[00:26:40] consensus that yes, this is how we're going to move forward. i still think that the
[00:26:44] Iranians internally cannot come to an agreement. you see
[00:26:48] this in sort the internal debates in their media, you have former
[00:26:51] foreign minister and vice president of strategic affairs, Jawad Zarif giving
[00:26:55] lectures here in there uh arguing that you
[00:26:58] know the hawkish attitude that the Tehen has.
[00:27:02] right now is not in the interest of Iran, so you see an internal
[00:27:06] struggle taking place. Right,
[00:27:10] Mr. Sanders, when we're looking at these developments then and the of
[00:27:14] course the mid-term elections coming in within the United States,
[00:27:18] how then do you think that the developing situation uh with what's going on
[00:27:21] between the Hudi Republi and Saudi Arabia may impact the future strategy with
[00:27:25] Iran as well given of course Iran's own stakes in the matter and
[00:27:29] how that will then impact uh what Mr. Trump is going to
[00:27:33] be emphasizing upon in his campaign.
[00:27:37] Well, I think president Trump - has to continue
[00:27:41] to say that this is success. Unfortunately,
[00:27:45] as one looks at the price of gasoline right now, it's a very
[00:27:48] difficult position to sell. Um, I would
[00:27:52] agree that it's not all that likely that we will see
[00:27:55] kinetic action, a spike in US
[00:27:59] military force before the elections, because... such a thing is
[00:28:03] likely only to raise the price of
[00:28:05] oil, what happens afterwards is, i think truly
[00:28:09] anyone's guess, the other side
[00:28:11] the equation is what's happening
[00:28:13] in Iran, we should remember that the US has
[00:28:16] naval blockade of Iran, it's it's done from relatively
[00:28:20] far offshore, but it seems to be quite successful in terms of
[00:28:24] accomplishing what it's trying, Iran depends
[00:28:27] on oil for between I think 65 to 80%
[00:28:31] of its ear. and without those they
[00:28:35] talkk a good game, but they have simply have to be feeling a
[00:28:39] degree of pressure themselves and
[00:28:43] the their economy is slipping backwards pretty pretty
[00:28:46] quickly, so this this creates some incenters on their
[00:28:49] side, but the question is would they be enough for
[00:28:53] for a change a position as the Iranians i think see
[00:28:57] a short term a horizon within the united states,
[00:29:01] all of this is... It's going
[00:29:03] to going to play out uh,
[00:29:05] for for now, but our own elections are only three weeks
[00:29:08] away, so the the odds would seem to be that
[00:29:12] neither side will make major concessions during this
[00:29:16] period, we have seen from the Iranians uh that the
[00:29:19] acknowledgement they have received the US proposal, um, they
[00:29:23] say that, some elements of it they find acceptable, others
[00:29:27] not, which is an interesting formulation, they've also
[00:29:31] been reaching out to the... salties with regard to the hoothi
[00:29:35] issue and the attacks, trying
[00:29:38] to set themselves up
[00:29:39] as mediator, given that they are the huti's patron, they certainly have
[00:29:42] influence, but they are hardly an unbiased party, so all
[00:29:46] these multiple interlocking elements are going to be moving in
[00:29:50] different directions over the next few
[00:29:52] weeks. right, absolutely. dr.
[00:29:56] camran, when we are looking at the situation with the rebels in Saudi Arabia, there is also
[00:30:00] what the UAE has talked about and... terms of a joint gulf
[00:30:04] defense that needs to be put in place in light the situation, there
[00:30:08] was of course some sort of agreement in the past on the situation in Yemen between the UE
[00:30:12] and Saudi Arabia, which later then of course they they
[00:30:16] departed from, but in terms of what the current scenario
[00:30:19] is within the middle east, can the Gulf actually get together for a joint
[00:30:23] defense coalition? a great
[00:30:27] question, so let me say that there is no shortage of intent
[00:30:31] for that kind of... "the problem is one of
[00:30:34] capability, and
[00:30:36] and the gulf countries have for decades relied
[00:30:40] on the United States for for their collective security,
[00:30:43] and now that the United States is retrenching and
[00:30:47] is rolling out this doctrine of burden sharing and burden shifting,
[00:30:51] in response to which
[00:30:52] we have, something like the Mecca accord, and that's still an architecture in the
[00:30:56] making, it's difficult to see that the Gulf states."