PRESSTV — broadcast
20260914 223000 UTC
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[00:00:00] consequences are concerned uh, i have to admit,
[00:00:03] i i don't think about it too much because i'm
[00:00:07] scared to think about it, because i have
[00:00:11] two cars and two motorcycles and i'm not particularly
[00:00:15] rich and every time i go to fill up at the
[00:00:18] من gas station, notice the gas prices
[00:00:20] of keep going up and my
[00:00:23] of natural instinct of course is to uh say
[00:00:26] various launch various curse words.
[00:00:30] at Trump, because he is soly
[00:00:33] responsible for this absolutely
[00:00:36] idiotic war, why is it idiotic war? I'm not a
[00:00:40] fan of war,
[00:00:41] me but
[00:00:41] of usually in wars have strategic targets in mind, they
[00:00:45] have a plan to achieve those targets
[00:00:48] and that's the way you measure your success,
[00:00:52] so Trump's war, he
[00:00:55] of and his people completely misunderstood the
[00:00:59] a nature. of the Iranian government, the Iranian government is not something that
[00:01:03] you
[00:01:04] of can where you knock down the leader and then you
[00:01:07] in you you cause complete dust after
[00:01:10] as happened in Iraq for example or as happened
[00:01:14] in Libya or
[00:01:18] of Syria for that matter in Iran has an actual republic
[00:01:22] of with very
[00:01:23] a complex
[00:01:24] of mechanics that are designed to
[00:01:27] replace like any other. republic like any other
[00:01:31] democratic republic, so the problem
[00:01:35] with ending this war, particularly as Trump
[00:01:39] wants to end it, which
[00:01:40] of is before the midterms, as your other guess
[00:01:43] said, with victory is that he doesn't know
[00:01:47] of what this victory looks like, the the the goal
[00:01:50] posts, the the uh keep changing, this
[00:01:54] victory keeps changing, it was never
[00:01:56] of about hermus to begin with, 'm
[00:02:00] straight was completely free for to navigation
[00:02:03] of before the war started, this was a problem that is a direct
[00:02:06] consequence of his war,
[00:02:09] of the fact that the people in the white house are
[00:02:12] absolute, i have no words
[00:02:15] for for them, and to think that he was elected to
[00:02:19] prevent this kind of thing is another problem,
[00:02:22] so the world economy is has been shaken even even if
[00:02:26] the war ends tomorrow ' um
[00:02:30] the it's the infrastructure still needs to
[00:02:33] be revamped and
[00:02:37] there
[00:02:37] are there are new players involved now the yemeni
[00:02:41] hosis have are moving up
[00:02:44] inside eliminating the rebels the
[00:02:48] other the saudi backed groups
[00:02:51] of in northern Yemen um and
[00:02:55] I suspect the the the ease with
[00:02:57] of which the hoodzies managed to take is not
[00:03:01] just because
[00:03:02] of their strategic and tactical brilliance, which
[00:03:06] is surprising, I'm going to ask you some questions
[00:03:09] about the the situation in the balbal straight
[00:03:13] and also Yemen and Saudi Arabia, but I will come back to that,
[00:03:17] in the meantime, miss the side, brend crew has been
[00:03:21] above $100 for some time right now, while
[00:03:24] traffic through the straight
[00:03:25] of off from moves remains dramatically below the...
[00:03:30] world levels, we all know about the situation in the straight of bob and mandab straight, what
[00:03:34] happened to the very important pipeline from Saudi
[00:03:37] Arabia, that according to some, was responsible for
[00:03:40] 4%
[00:03:41] of the global oil supply, you can correct me if I'm wrong there, um,
[00:03:45] the question is uh, what would happen to the global
[00:03:49] economy if the current prices
[00:03:51] of stay the same or even go higher?
[00:03:55] well, the global economy will enter and
[00:03:59] well, it is already... very weak, you have to understand that the global economy
[00:04:02] has never fully recovered from the pandemic, then it was hit
[00:04:06] by the Ukraine war, which also led to an energy
[00:04:10] of shock, now it has been hit in between it was hit by
[00:04:14] the situation in
[00:04:15] of Gaza which may not have had immediate effects, but it certainly
[00:04:19] led to lot of disruption, and now it is being
[00:04:22] assaulted by the war on Iran, all
[00:04:29] of of these are cumulative, multiple shocks. that are going to send the global economy into a tail
[00:04:33] spin, obviously there will be an energy shock.
[00:04:36] now you have to understand the energy shock has so far been
[00:04:40] mitigated by several by several things. number
[00:04:44] one, china has had, china had lot
[00:04:48] of stock piles, so it has been
[00:04:51] using them. secondly, thanks to an already weak
[00:04:55] economy, there has also been a lot of demand destruction, which means
[00:04:59] that Essentially people are just closing down
[00:05:03] businesses, losing their livelihoods and not demanding
[00:05:07] oil, but this level, the continuing
[00:05:11] increase in oil price. which are not going to decline
[00:05:14] even if the war ended tomorrow as the other other speaker
[00:05:18] pointed out, there's going to be lot of
[00:05:22] time before the destroyed all facilities in the
[00:05:26] gulf region can be restored and other oil
[00:05:30] facilities can come online, so the energy impact will be
[00:05:34] huge. secondly, there's going to be
[00:05:36] a debt impact, number of countries in the world are heavily
[00:05:40] indebted and they face... higher oil prices will
[00:05:44] get deeper into debt and there will be debt crisis, so all
[00:05:48] in all we are looking at an extremely bad
[00:05:51] scenario for the world economy, but let add one other
[00:05:54] thing: president Trump's best friends
[00:05:58] in the oil economy, for whom he was announcing the
[00:06:02] drill baby drill initiative, they are
[00:06:05] making money hand over fist and doing so
[00:06:09] at the expense of US consumers. What do I mean
[00:06:13] by that? On the whole, most these majors
[00:06:17] are drilling oil in the United States, there
[00:06:21] costs have not gone up, but as world oil prices go
[00:06:24] up, they are charging the consumers world
[00:06:28] prices, so they are making a
[00:06:31] windfall game, and so you can imagine that
[00:06:35] President Trump, while he is electorally in trouble with
[00:06:39] the rising oil prices, he politically... He is
[00:06:43] doing very well, serving the precise interest whom he was
[00:06:47] elected to
[00:06:53] Saudi Arabia today reportedly requested the postponents of an
[00:06:57] Iran uh Persian gulf meeting in Oman a
[00:07:01] temporary shipping arrangement through the straight of Formus. Why
[00:07:05] would Riad want to delay arrangement that could help
[00:07:09] restore stability? Indus straight to for mous.
[00:07:13] Well, I have I have a feeling that Riyad's
[00:07:17] postponement has something to do with the with the hoosi
[00:07:21] victory, because the hoothies are constantly being
[00:07:23] presented, especially in the
[00:07:26] media, with Saudi
[00:07:30] complicity, as Iranian
[00:07:32] back, Iranian back is key element, so
[00:07:36] I think is the the Saudis
[00:07:40] are trying to bring in. Iran as well
[00:07:44] - into this are
[00:07:48] are are trying to get some kind of
[00:07:51] concessions, but but the or
[00:07:53] blame um to by postponing
[00:07:57] this meaning, and Oman has been a
[00:07:59] very um, very good broker, it's been one
[00:08:03] the best players
[00:08:06] in in this terrible situation, one the
[00:08:10] most reliable so far.
[00:08:25] prices, not only are the oil
[00:08:28] companies benefiting from this the the windfall,
[00:08:32] but the trump family and few people around him are
[00:08:35] benefiting by manipulating the stock
[00:08:39] market uh and to
[00:08:42] shorting oil futures on one day and then
[00:08:45] making the profits on the next, so
[00:08:49] they uh, there's a lot of corruption going
[00:08:53] on, Trump is the only president I ever heard of
[00:08:57] who, there is that going on, and also American
[00:09:01] oil companies drilling in Texas benefit from
[00:09:05] a high oil price, because it's very expensive to drill
[00:09:09] in in the United States and um...
[00:09:12] they with
[00:09:14] the the high oil prices, all of sudden the profit margins are
[00:09:18] justified, so shaale oil
[00:09:21] becomes economically viable, and also
[00:09:25] Trump made another mess in Venezuela before at
[00:09:29] Christmas, that was his Christmas gift to the world um by
[00:09:32] taking over the Venezuelan oil,
[00:09:36] which supposedly to great fan fair has been handed over to
[00:09:40] Chevron and Exxon to develop. and we've heard
[00:09:44] various projects being
[00:09:47] started, but there's something else that isn't
[00:09:50] mentioned, and that is that the investments needed
[00:09:54] to bring Venezuelan oil production up to
[00:09:57] speed are huge, billions and billions,
[00:10:01] dozens of billions of dollars are needed to upgrade the
[00:10:05] infrastructure, and also Venezuelan cruwed suffers from
[00:10:09] similar problems to shale, it's not sweet. It needs
[00:10:13] a lot of refining and it's very sludgy,
[00:10:16] unlike most middle eastern
[00:10:18] oil. Miss
[00:10:21] Desai, um, according to Mr. Bruno's uh... analysis
[00:10:25] when it comes to the oil prices, if there the oil prices go
[00:10:29] up from a certain point then it is good for the US
[00:10:33] economy, so if you wanted to
[00:10:36] actually tell what Iran should be doing at this moment, there
[00:10:40] must be a sweet spot that Iran should try its best to
[00:10:44] keep the oil prices in that range, am I in the right?
[00:10:48] um, yes, I mean there is a there is a certain
[00:10:51] complexity as Mr. Bruno just pointed out that ' you
[00:10:55] know the shale oil producers
[00:10:59] benefit from a higher oil price because their production
[00:11:02] is not viable under a certain price, but that does not
[00:11:06] go for all American oil producers, so that's the first thing.
[00:11:09] secondly, as I said, the the producers who are
[00:11:13] already producing a a lower price
[00:11:17] are already benefiting. I just
[00:11:30] is that Trump's announcements about you, how
[00:11:33] he is taking over Venezuelan oil or how the
[00:11:37] oil war will, how the Iran war will end
[00:11:40] after the midterms, all these are
[00:11:44] time to coincide with the midterm
[00:11:47] elections, so somehow to alleviate,
[00:11:51] somehow to essentially excuse his...
[00:11:55] is tremendous blunder in undertaking this war.
[00:11:59] now as far as Iran is concerned, I i
[00:12:03] suppose it will be wise for it to keep the oil
[00:12:07] price down to level which does not benefit the shale
[00:12:10] oil drillers and I don't know exactly
[00:12:14] what that price level would be, but honestly I am not
[00:12:18] sure that that's what necessarily Iran wants, because
[00:12:22] Iran's interest also is in
[00:12:25] continuing the supply of oil, at the end the day,
[00:12:29] Iran may benefit from higher oil prices, but it needs to sell some
[00:12:33] oil in order to keep going, and and Iran has been quite
[00:12:37] explicit about that, Iran has been quite explicit about that,
[00:12:41] so I would say that for Iran
[00:12:43] exactly how much to keep
[00:12:47] the what traffic to let through and how
[00:12:50] much are decisions that it far and I have no doubt
[00:12:54] it will continue. to make cleverly depending its needs and of
[00:12:58] course it's very important and genuine
[00:13:01] desire not to harm unduly harm
[00:13:05] its allies and other innocent
[00:13:08] parties in in the situation. Iran has not
[00:13:12] created this world energy crisis, it is the
[00:13:16] United States, the United States could stop the energy
[00:13:19] crisis tomorrow by simply ending its
[00:13:23] entirely unjustified. war on Iran,
[00:13:27] and of course same goes for Israel,
[00:13:30] absolutely. Mr. Bruno, Europe is
[00:13:34] also facing its own inflationary pressures as
[00:13:38] energy prices uh rise, could the uh
[00:13:41] crisis industry of removes actually shaped the
[00:13:45] European countries um to do something different from
[00:13:49] what they have been doing in the past decades? Well, I think
[00:13:53] European countries have... two serious problems, one is
[00:13:57] hormoz, actually three, the other is
[00:14:00] the close alliance with the United States,
[00:14:04] and the third problem is the obstinacy in Europe
[00:14:07] to perpetuate the war in Ukraine,
[00:14:11] which is hurting and them
[00:14:15] completely, it is one the biggest shooting yourself in the
[00:14:18] foot uh issues ever made, this
[00:14:22] war could could have ended for. four or five years
[00:14:25] whenever it started, but Europe decided to put all
[00:14:29] its marbles into defeating Moscow, which is
[00:14:33] an absolutely incredibly stupid go,
[00:14:37] we goal, historical terms everyone knows what
[00:14:40] happens when europe decides
[00:14:44] to mount some kind of campaign against
[00:14:47] Russia, and now Russia is going
[00:14:49] after - for for
[00:14:52] many years. the first Russia
[00:14:56] was careful not to damage civilian infrastructure too much
[00:15:00] in Ukraine, in fact we had foreign
[00:15:03] dignitaries, actors arriving in Kieve
[00:15:07] regularly. How many wars do we see that?
[00:15:10] where the the the leader is visited by foreigners without with
[00:15:14] complete impunity. this is unique, but
[00:15:18] now you know we heard
[00:15:20] there was a train, supposedly Boris Johnson was on that train, former British
[00:15:24] prime minister. and the train was seen as the
[00:15:28] Russians identified as carrying weapons and so they targeted it and
[00:15:32] now they're upping the Russians are much more
[00:15:35] serious they so there is going to be double whamy gas
[00:15:38] energy from Russia and now the straight of
[00:15:42] hormoz blocked and the straight babal
[00:15:46] mandab under huzi control. it's
[00:15:49] ironic the hoodzies took over the port of
[00:15:53] mocca. most europeans have no idea that that's the reason
[00:15:57] why coffee you know we have maca coffees because that's where
[00:16:01] it came from and and that's another interesting issue what's going
[00:16:05] to happen to coffee prices, but um,
[00:16:08] so we have a really terrible situation, Europe is the
[00:16:12] victim of its own, I don't even want to say Miopia,
[00:16:16] stupidity is more
[00:16:18] the the issue here, they really need to stop the
[00:16:22] war in Ukraine, and then they act all surprised
[00:16:26] when far right parties who
[00:16:30] have which have at their center the
[00:16:33] platform, the the political program
[00:16:37] to pull out of this Ukraine war, like the
[00:16:41] alternative for Deutschland, which won the elections a
[00:16:44] in state, last week,
[00:16:47] I believe, um, threatening
[00:16:51] Chancellor Merth's party,
[00:16:53] I don't know how long mer will last in fact, so Europe is
[00:16:57] already will soon face political consequences as
[00:17:00] result the totally misguided economic
[00:17:04] ones, there's another consequence too, China
[00:17:08] will benefit, China is the United States seems to be
[00:17:12] doing everything to make China the big, the
[00:17:16] next big diplomatic, economic and military
[00:19:18] ali pa
[00:19:18] dado.
[00:20:54] هذه حرب قاسيه كثير كثير كثير قاسيه
[00:20:56] نتي يشوفونا الدول
[00:20:59] العربيه نحن عايشينها اه
[00:21:02] والصعبه اكثر كمان علينا وهذه الخيم مش نافعه يقوللك الخيمه
[00:21:06] منيحه احسن الخيمته
[00:21:10] القطريه بالعكس القطريه والشوادر كله كله هذول مش
[00:21:13] نفعات الواحد الا زي
[00:21:15] بيته.
[00:21:20] her interview, she's calling out to them, come and see our lives,
[00:21:23] you know, come and save us, of course these Arabs are not going to do anything, they are
[00:21:27] complicit, aren't they? I think they put themselves a situation where that
[00:21:31] the whole they economy is based on rich people coming and living there in
[00:21:34] the in their countries, so once you've got that situation that even though
[00:21:38] they have defense, but they're
[00:21:39] not a military country, so really they they just want to keep the status
[00:21:43] quo for themselves, whatever is going on around
[00:21:45] them.
[00:22:09] In southern Iran, where the waters the Persian gulf meet the
[00:22:13] open ocean lies narrow stretch of water that may
[00:22:17] matter more than any battlefield. straight of
[00:22:20] hormos, passage through which, according to
[00:22:23] estimates by institutions such as the US energy
[00:22:27] information administration, a significant portion the
[00:22:31] world's oil flows every single day, not
[00:22:34] merely around, but vital artery the global,
[00:22:38] yet in recent weeks, this straight has, yet in recent
[00:22:41] weeks, this straight has once again moved from energy maps to the
[00:22:45] front pages of security crises, following tensions
[00:22:49] and clashes between Iran, the United States and Israel,
[00:22:53] the name hormos is being heard once more, this time not merely
[00:22:57] as passage, but as a tool, a tool caught between
[00:23:01] war, economy and law, and now an
[00:23:05] old question has been revived, can ts be charged for
[00:23:08] passage through this
[00:23:09] street?
[00:23:18] Here a fundamental. Question arises: does Iran have the
[00:23:22] right under international law to impose such levies
[00:23:26] similar to those charged in international canals, or is the
[00:23:30] straight of hormos fundamentally an international straight
[00:23:34] where no state may exercise sovereign measures such as tols
[00:23:38] or
[00:23:38] restrictions.
[00:23:42] The straight of homoz remains effectively closed by Iran. That's having
[00:23:46] a major impact on the global economy as it's a vital. corridor
[00:23:50] for oil, gas and huge range of other materials. the legal
[00:23:54] status of streets and canals worldwide regarding passage fees and
[00:23:58] tols fundamentally depends on whether the waterway is
[00:24:02] natural straight or an artificial
[00:24:04] canal.
[00:24:09] canals such as suwez and panama are artificial waterways
[00:24:13] under the sovereignty or joint administration the owning
[00:24:16] state. in these canals charging to
[00:24:20] cover construction, maintenance and operational costs is
[00:24:24] standard and accepted practice. For instance, in
[00:24:28] the Panama Canal, all vessels pay tools based
[00:24:31] tonage, type and cargo. In the SUS
[00:24:34] canal, these fees are determined according to specific
[00:24:38] indices such as net tonage and vessel
[00:24:41] type.
[00:24:55] By contrast, natural streets generally fall under the regime of
[00:24:59] international law the sea, particularly the
[00:25:02] 1982 United Nations Convention on the law the sea
[00:25:06] or unclose. Under this framework, levying
[00:25:10] tools or fees solely for passage is prohibited.
[00:25:13] International straights are natural waterways used for
[00:25:16] international navigation between two parts the... high seas
[00:25:20] or exclusive economic zones, and under our
[00:25:24] convention, they enjoy transit pack convention, they
[00:25:27] enjoy transit passage rights. However,
[00:25:31] the crucial point is that Iran and the United States, despite signing
[00:25:35] this convention, have never ratified it. Iran has
[00:25:39] even rejected portions of it, including the transit passage
[00:25:43] regime. Instead, Iran relies a different
[00:25:46] legal framework, innocent passage. From this
[00:25:50] perspective, Iran maintains that within its territorial waters,
[00:25:54] it reserves the right to exercise control, regulate
[00:25:58] navigation and even impose conditions, including potential
[00:26:01] tools.
[00:26:05] "Well, as matter of fact, the straight of hormos is open, it is
[00:26:09] only closed to the tankers and
[00:26:13] ships belong to the to our enemies, to those
[00:26:16] who are attacking us and their allies, others are free
[00:26:20] to pass, of course, many them prefer
[00:26:24] not because their security concerns, this,
[00:26:28] this has nothing to do with us. This approach is rooted in the
[00:26:31] 19'. 58 Geneva Convention and in practices such as the
[00:26:35] ruling in the Corfu Channel case, which allow coastal
[00:26:39] states to impose conditions on passage to protect national
[00:26:43] security and the environment. In the 1958
[00:26:47] Geneva Convention on the territorial sea a concept called
[00:26:50] innocent Passage was defined, passage that must be
[00:26:54] non-threatening, non-destructive and compatible with the
[00:26:58] security the coastal state. But this was not
[00:27:01] merely simple. definition: this concept gave the coastal
[00:27:05] state a tool, the right to determine whether passage is
[00:27:09] truly innocent or not, and if it is not, the
[00:27:13] right to respond remains reserved for them.
[00:27:16] thus, emerging from these very practices, logic took
[00:27:20] shape. passage is free, but not without
[00:27:23] constraints. the coastal state may monitor or set
[00:27:27] conditions for high risk passages such as military
[00:27:30] vessels or carriers of... dangerous materials may
[00:27:34] require prior notification and even under specific
[00:27:37] circumstances impose restrictions to protect national
[00:27:41] security or the
[00:27:42] environment.
[00:27:51] Within this framework, passage is no longer merely a physical
[00:27:55] movement, but illegal relationship between freedom the
[00:27:59] seas
[00:27:59] and state sovereignty.
[00:28:32] یک ماه افتاد خب نشون میده که ما
[00:28:35] برای اطمینان از تردد ایمن
[00:28:39] و امن شناورها باید مجموعه تدابیر رو
[00:28:43] اتخاض بکنیم این فقط در رابطه با حفظ
[00:28:47] امنیت ملی ایران به عنوان کشور ساحلی
[00:28:50] نیست.
[00:29:04] Ultimately, the straight of Hodmos is not merely waterway, it
[00:29:07] is a convergence point of law, power and
[00:29:11] interpretation, and after years of compromise and
[00:29:14] securing passage for all the world's nations, even those that have
[00:29:18] sanctioned Iran for decades, Iran has now decided to
[00:29:22] exercise its natural right and implement a comprehensive
[00:29:26] plan in cooperation with Oman to establish new
[00:29:29] passage regulations for this strategic city.
[00:29:32] Great: control and management that naturally does
[00:29:36] not suit the taste of hajamanic
[00:29:39] powers.
[00:30:07] says the straightful moves would be open within the framework of international
[00:30:11] law.