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20260915 093000 UTC
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[00:00:00] were pulling her from beneath the depre. the fallen sofa had
[00:00:03] shielded her head from the collapsing building, but her injuries
[00:00:07] for severe. her greatest wounds, however, were
[00:00:10] invisible. weeks later, a video of at home standing on the
[00:00:14] ruins of her home spread across
[00:00:17] in Iran. in her hands was a hand-written note rescued from the rubble,
[00:00:21] one her young son had written before the attack.
[00:00:25] as she read it, her voice faltered. around her lay the
[00:00:29] remains
[00:00:29] of the... life she had built, her father says that after
[00:00:33] losing her husband, her
[00:00:34] of ordinary sounds after more than two months of overwhelming
[00:00:38] grief after losing her family
[00:00:40] in a us
[00:00:41] of Israely attack, she suffered fatal stroke and died.
[00:00:45] her
[00:00:46] of story speaks to a quiet or taller war of survivors who
[00:00:49] carry the destruction with them long
[00:00:52] a after the dos settles. it also reflects a wider pattern
[00:00:56] of us Israeli aggression across the region that... has left
[00:01:00] behind a deeper tool not only
[00:01:02] in a single moment of impact, but in the lasting human
[00:01:06] consequences that
[00:01:10] of follow.
[00:01:15] of
[00:01:25] of
[00:01:35] of
[00:01:37] of
[00:02:10] of
[00:02:52] Good evening and tonight's a spotlight we examine the growing
[00:02:56] economic fallout from the crisis and the straight of removes as oil.
[00:03:00] prices search shipping remains severely disrupted and
[00:03:04] the impact reaches consumers across the globe. Brent Crude has
[00:03:08] climbed above $108 a barrel, while the latest
[00:03:12] disruptions to Saudi Arabia's alternative oil roots are
[00:03:15] adding further pressure to global supplies. At the same
[00:03:19] time, a planned Iran and Oman arrangement on shipping through the
[00:03:23] straight of removes has been postponed. President Donald Trump says the rise
[00:03:27] in prices is the legacy of buy. administration
[00:03:31] and insists that oil prices will drop like rock once
[00:03:35] the military conflict would Iran ends, what with American diesel
[00:03:38] prices at record levels and financial markets
[00:03:41] increasingly worried about inflation, the economic
[00:03:45] consequences
[00:03:46] of the war are becoming harder to separate from the military
[00:03:49] campaign, so who
[00:03:51] of is ultimately paying the economic price for this conflict? Washington launched
[00:03:55] a
[00:04:00] of of military campaign to impose its will on Iran, but the war hands instead. that produced major global energy
[00:04:03] in shock has this strategy achieved the opposite of what it
[00:04:06] intended? that's what we'll be discussing tonight with our
[00:04:14] of guests. redika desai, director
[00:04:19] a of the geopolitical economy research group joining us from the city of
[00:04:20] of London. and
[00:04:24] also joining us is Alessandra Bruno, author and geopolitical analyst join
[00:04:28] us from the city of Toronto.
[00:04:33] Thank you both of you for joining me at this spotlight program. I'm
[00:04:37] going to begin with miss desai. um,
[00:04:40] president Donald Trump has been posting about the straight of
[00:04:43] removes, the conflict in uh Russia between
[00:04:47] Russia and Ukraine and how the energy prices are at this
[00:04:51] point. Excuse me, he also said that the
[00:04:55] oil prices will drop like rock once the conflict
[00:04:59] of between Iran and the US ends, he also linked to the
[00:05:03] Russia-Ukraine war saying that
[00:05:05] of both sides have agreed that they are not going to attack each other's
[00:05:09] of energy infrastructure uh, how would you say? is
[00:05:12] analyzing the situation and would you call that realistic? Mr.
[00:05:16] Sai? I would definitely not call it
[00:05:19] realistic, I would call it totally self-interested.
[00:05:23] President, which he thought he could,
[00:05:27] which he thought he could finish off a
[00:05:30] weekend, it's now in its seventh
[00:05:33] month, it's not
[00:05:35] stopping, Iran's
[00:05:38] resistance, resilience and brilliance. I
[00:05:42] should say
[00:05:43] has a trumped Trump and as
[00:05:47] a consequence he is left dealing with the consequences and having to
[00:05:51] explain it to an extremely irirate American
[00:05:55] electorate whom his party is going to
[00:05:59] face in about six weeks
[00:06:02] time. he has not got clue
[00:06:06] about how he can end this
[00:06:08] war by winning, that is to...
[00:06:12] he would prefer, mean he he he he can end the war
[00:06:16] tomorrow, but that would involve admitting defeat, and that
[00:06:20] is the one thing, he cannot afford ahead
[00:06:23] midterms, the so we have seen him saying in
[00:06:27] front the cameras at
[00:06:31] an airport, tamarx somewhere, oh this is going to last at least until
[00:06:34] after the elections, because
[00:06:36] he knows that he cannot end this before the midterm
[00:06:40] elections, so all he
[00:06:41] can try to do is, as you pointed out, blame it on
[00:06:45] the Biden administration, claim that it will end after
[00:06:49] the end the midterms,
[00:06:52] meanwhile trying to make sure that he is going to
[00:06:56] still his party will still in the midterms, he's
[00:06:59] promised every American five, every adult
[00:07:03] American 500 US
[00:07:07] dollars if the Republicans win, go figure, I mean
[00:07:10] who's desperate? Absolutely, thank you so
[00:07:14] much, Mr. Sai, let me bring in our other guest, Mr.
[00:07:18] Bruno into this conversation as well, thank you so much uh for your
[00:07:22] time tonight, well thank you, also Donald Trump says that the
[00:07:25] military conflict will not last very long, and when
[00:07:29] that conflict ends, the oil prices are going to uh
[00:07:33] be back to the normal situation as they were before February
[00:07:37] 28th, the there are two questions that I wanted to pose, number one
[00:07:41] is um even if that would be the case, what would
[00:07:45] happen to the global economy? and second, can he actually
[00:07:49] do that? can he find out an exit ramp from this conflict
[00:07:53] that quick? well, thank you for having me.
[00:07:57] now as far as the economic consequences are
[00:07:59] concerned, uh, i have to admit,
[00:08:02] i i don't think about it too much because i'm
[00:08:06] scared to think about it, because i have
[00:08:10] two cars and two motorcycles. "and I'm not particularly
[00:08:13] rich, and every time I go to fill up at the gas
[00:08:17] station, I notice the gas prices keep going
[00:08:20] up, and my natural instinct of course, is
[00:08:23] to say various, launch various
[00:08:27] curse words at Trump, because he is
[00:08:31] soly responsible for this absolutely
[00:08:35] idiotic war. Why is it idiotic war? I'm not a
[00:08:39] fan of war, but usually wars have strategic..." targets in
[00:08:43] mind, they have a plan to achieve those targets
[00:08:47] and that's the way you measure your
[00:08:49] success, so Trump's
[00:08:53] war, you might say, failed at the very
[00:08:57] beginning, because he went for regime change, and he did not achieve
[00:09:01] regime change because he completely, he and
[00:09:04] his people completely misunderstood the
[00:09:08] nature the Iranian government, the Iranian government is not something that...
[00:09:12] can where you knock down the leader and then you you you
[00:09:16] cause complete dust after as happened
[00:09:20] in Iraq for example or has happened
[00:09:23] in Libya or Syria
[00:09:27] for that matter in Iran has an actual republic
[00:09:30] with very complex
[00:09:34] mechanics that are designed to replace like any
[00:09:38] other republic like any other democratic
[00:09:41] republic. so the problem with
[00:09:45] ending this war, particularly as Trump wants to end it, which
[00:09:49] is before the midterms, as your other other guests
[00:09:52] said, with the victory, is that he doesn't know what
[00:09:56] this victory looks like, the the the goal posts,
[00:10:00] the the keep changing, this victory keeps changing,
[00:10:04] it was never about hermus to begin
[00:10:07] with, the hermus straight was completely free for to
[00:10:11] navigation before the... war started, this was a problem that
[00:10:14] is a direct consequence of his war, the fact that
[00:10:18] the people in the white house are absolute, i
[00:10:22] have no words for ' for them and to think
[00:10:26] that he was elected to prevent this kind of thing is
[00:10:29] another problem, so the world
[00:10:32] economy has been shaken, even even if the war ends
[00:10:36] tomorrow, the it's
[00:10:40] the infrastructure still needs to
[00:10:42] be revamped, and
[00:10:46] there
[00:10:46] are there are new players involved, now the yemeni
[00:10:50] hosis have are moving up
[00:10:53] inside. eliminating the rebels, the
[00:10:56] other, the saudi-backed groups in
[00:11:00] northern Yemen, um, and I, I
[00:11:03] suspect the the the ease with which the hoodzies
[00:11:07] managed to take over is not just because their
[00:11:11] strategic and tactical brilliance, which is
[00:11:15] surprising, I'm going to ask you some questions about
[00:11:19] the the situation in the babal mandab straight and also
[00:11:23] Yemen and Saudi Arabia, but I will come... back to that, in the
[00:11:26] meantime, miss the side, brend crew has been
[00:11:30] above $100 for some time right now, while
[00:11:33] traffic through the straight of from moves remains dramatically
[00:11:37] below uh the pre-world levels, we all know about the situation in the
[00:11:41] straight of bob and mandab straight, what happened to the very
[00:11:45] important pipeline from Saudi Arabia that according to some was
[00:11:48] responsible for 4% the global oil supply, you can
[00:11:52] correct me if I'm wrong there - question is
[00:11:56] uh, what would happen to the global economy if the current
[00:11:59] prices stay the same or even go
[00:12:02] higher? well, the global
[00:12:05] economy will enter and well, it is already very weak, you
[00:12:09] have to understand that the global economy has never fully recovered
[00:12:13] from the pandemic, then it was hit by the Ukraine war which also led
[00:12:17] to an energy shock, now it has been hit in between it
[00:12:21] was hit by the situation in Gaza which... may
[00:12:25] not have had immediate effects, but it certainly led to lot of
[00:12:29] disruption and now it is being assaulted by the
[00:12:33] war on Iran, all these are
[00:12:36] cumulative multiple shocks that are going to send the
[00:12:40] global economy into a tail spin, obviously there will
[00:12:44] be an energy shock, now you have to understand the energy
[00:12:48] shock has so far been mitigated by several by
[00:12:52] several things, number one, China. has had
[00:12:56] China had lot of stock piles so
[00:13:00] it has been using them, secondly, thanks to an
[00:13:03] already weak economy, there has also been a lot of demand destruction,
[00:13:07] which means that essentially people are just closing
[00:13:11] down businesses, losing their livelihoods and not
[00:13:14] demanding oil, but this
[00:13:17] level, the continuing increase in oil prices
[00:13:21] which are not going to decline even if the war it
[00:13:25] tomorrow as the other other speaker pointed
[00:13:28] out, there's going to be lot of time
[00:13:32] before the destroyed all facilities in the Gulf
[00:13:35] region can be restored and other oil
[00:13:39] facilities can come online, so the energy impact will be
[00:13:43] huge. Secondly, there's going to be debt impact,
[00:13:46] number of countries in the world are heavily indebted and
[00:13:50] they facing higher oil prices will get deeper into debt
[00:13:54] and there will... be debt crisis, so all in all we are
[00:13:58] looking at an extremely bad scenario for the world
[00:14:02] economy, but let me add one other thing, president
[00:14:05] Trump's best friends in the oil
[00:14:08] economy, for whom he was announcing the drill,
[00:14:11] baby drill initiative, they are making money
[00:14:15] hand over fist and doing so at the
[00:14:19] expense of US consumers. what do mean by
[00:14:22] that? on the hole "most these majors are
[00:14:26] drilling oil in the United States, their
[00:14:30] costs have not gone up, but as world oil prices go
[00:14:33] up, they are charging the consumers world
[00:14:37] prices, so they are making a
[00:14:40] windfall game, and so you can imagine that
[00:14:44] President Trump while he is el was elected to
[00:14:46] serve, thank you so much, miss
[00:14:50] desai, mr. bruno, Saudi Arabia today
[00:14:54] reportedly request" to the postponents of an Iran uh
[00:14:58] Persian gulf meeting in Oman a temporary shipping
[00:15:01] arrangement through the straight of Ramus why would Riyadh want
[00:15:05] to delay arrangement that could help restore
[00:15:08] stability under straight of from
[00:15:10] moves? well um I
[00:15:14] have I have a feeling that Riyad's postponement has something to
[00:15:18] do with the with the Housi victory because the Housies are
[00:15:22] constantly being presented. in the
[00:15:25] media with Saudi
[00:15:29] complicity as Iranian back,
[00:15:33] we always hear the stories the Iranian backed hoossis
[00:15:36] and "nothing else is known about the hoothis in
[00:15:40] in in the mainstream, but Iranian back is key
[00:15:44] element, so i think is the
[00:15:48] the saudis are trying to bring in Iran as
[00:15:52] well into
[00:15:54] this are are are trying
[00:15:57] to get some kind of concessions, but
[00:16:01] but the or blame um to
[00:16:05] by postponing this meaning and oman." has been a
[00:16:08] very um very good broker, it's been one
[00:16:12] the best uh players
[00:16:15] in in this terrible situation, one the most
[00:16:19] reliable so far, might be the reason of course
[00:16:23] um might be the reason of course um the saudis
[00:16:27] on the other hand, what i want wanted to add to your
[00:16:30] other guests comments speaking of oil
[00:16:34] prices, not only are the oil company is
[00:16:38] benefiting from this
[00:16:39] the the windfall, but the Trump family and few people
[00:16:43] around him are benefiting by manipulating the
[00:16:47] stock market and to
[00:16:51] shorting oil futures on one day and then
[00:16:54] making the profits on the next, so
[00:16:58] they there's a lot of corruption going
[00:17:02] on, Trump is the only president I ever heard of
[00:17:06] who ' trades stocks
[00:17:10] through his family in Texas benefit from a
[00:17:13] high oil price because it's very expensive to drill in in
[00:17:17] the United States
[00:17:19] and they with
[00:17:22] the the high oil prices all of sudden the profit margins are
[00:17:26] justified so shale oil
[00:17:29] becomes economically viable and also Trump
[00:17:33] made another mess in Venezuela before uh
[00:17:37] christmas that was his christmas gift to the world by
[00:17:41] taking over the Venezuelan oil,
[00:17:45] which supposedly to great fan fair has been handed over to
[00:17:49] Chevron and exon to develop, and we've heard
[00:17:52] various projects being
[00:17:56] started, but there's something else that isn't
[00:17:59] mentioned, and that is that the investments needed
[00:18:02] to bring Venezuelan oil production up to
[00:18:06] speed, are huge, billions and billions, dozens
[00:18:10] of billions of dollars are needed to upgrade the
[00:18:13] infrastructure, and also Venezuelan cruwed suffers from
[00:18:17] similar problems to shale, it's not sweet, it needs
[00:18:21] a lot of refining and it's very sludgy,
[00:18:25] unlike most middle eastern
[00:18:26] oil. Mr.
[00:18:30] Sai, according to Mr. Bruno's analysis when it
[00:18:34] comes to the oil prices, if the the oil price. go
[00:18:38] up from a certain point then it is good for the US
[00:18:41] economy, so if you wanted to
[00:18:45] actually tell what Iran should be doing at this moment, there
[00:18:49] must be a sweet spot that Iran should try its best to
[00:18:52] keep the oil prices in that range, am I under
[00:18:55] right? yes, I mean there
[00:18:58] is a there is a certain complexity as Mr. Bruno just
[00:19:02] pointed out that
[00:19:03] you know the shale oil producers.
[00:19:07] benefit from a higher oil price because their production is
[00:19:11] not viable under a certain price, but that does not go for
[00:19:15] all American oil producers, so that's the first thing, secondly, as I
[00:19:19] said, the the producers who are already producing
[00:19:23] a a lower price are already
[00:19:27] benefiting. I just wanted to add a couple more points to what
[00:19:30] Mr. Bruno said, before I go to the question of
[00:19:34] what Iran should do, but so the points wanted to add is
[00:19:38] that Trump's announcements about
[00:19:41] you know how he is taking over Venezuelan oil or how the
[00:19:45] oil war will how the Iran war will end after
[00:19:49] the midterms all these are timed to
[00:19:53] coincide with the midterm elections
[00:19:56] so somehow to alleviate somehow
[00:20:00] to essentially excuse
[00:20:03] his tremendous blunder in
[00:20:06] undertaking. this war now as far as Iran is concerned,
[00:20:10] I I I suppose it will be wise for it to
[00:20:14] keep the oil price down to level which does not
[00:20:18] benefit the shale oil drillers and I
[00:20:22] don't know exactly what that price level would be, but
[00:20:25] honestly I
[00:20:26] am not sure that that's what necessarily Iran wants because
[00:20:30] Iran's interest also is in continuing the
[00:20:34] supply of oil at the end the day. 'Iran
[00:20:38] may benefit from higher oil prices, but it needs to sell some
[00:20:41] oil in order to keep going, and and Iran has been quite
[00:20:45] explicit about that, so I would say that for
[00:20:49] Iran'. exactly how much to
[00:20:53] keep the what traffic to let through and how
[00:20:56] much are decisions that it has been making very
[00:21:00] cleverly so far and i have no doubt it will continue to make
[00:21:03] cleverly depending its needs and of course it's
[00:21:07] very important and genuine desire not to
[00:21:11] harm unduly harm its allies
[00:21:15] and other innocent parties in in
[00:21:19] the situation. Iran has not created this
[00:21:22] world energy crisis, it is the United States, the United
[00:21:26] States could stop the energy crisis tomorrow
[00:21:30] by simply ending its entirely unjustified
[00:21:33] war on Iran, and of course same goes for
[00:21:37] Israel, absolutely. Mr.
[00:21:40] Bruno, Europe is also facing its own
[00:21:44] inflationary pressures as energy prices
[00:21:47] uh rise, could the uh "crisis industry of
[00:21:51] removes actually shaped the European
[00:21:54] countries um to do something different from what they
[00:21:58] have been doing in the past decades? well, I think European
[00:22:02] countries have two serious problems, one is
[00:22:05] Hormus, actually three, the other is
[00:22:08] the close alliance with the United States, the
[00:22:12] obstinacy in Europe to perpet obstinacy in Europe
[00:22:16] to perpetuate the war in Ukraine, which..."
[00:22:20] is hurting and them completely, it
[00:22:24] is one the biggest shooting yourself in the
[00:22:26] foot uh issues ever made, this
[00:22:30] war could could have ended four or five years
[00:22:34] whenever it started, but Europe decided to put all
[00:22:38] its marbles into defeating Moscow, which is
[00:22:42] an absolutely incredibly stupid go, we
[00:22:45] goal, historical terms everyone knows what happens.
[00:22:50] when Europe decides to mount
[00:22:53] some kind of campaign against Russia, and now Russia
[00:22:57] is going after - for for
[00:23:01] many years, for the first, Russia was
[00:23:05] careful not to damage civilian infrastructure too much in
[00:23:09] Ukraine, in fact we had foreign
[00:23:11] dignitaries, actors are riding in Kiev
[00:23:15] regularly, how many wars do we see that, you know
[00:23:19] where the the... "the leader is visited by foreigners without
[00:23:23] with a complete impunity. this is unique, but
[00:23:27] now
[00:23:28] we we heard there was a train, supposedly Boris Johnson was on that train,
[00:23:32] former British prime minister, and the train was seen
[00:23:35] as the Russians identified as carrying weapons and
[00:23:39] so they targeted it, and now they're uping, the
[00:23:43] Russians are much more serious, they so there is going to be double
[00:23:46] whamy gas energy from Russia."
[00:23:50] and now the straight of hermus blocked and the straight of
[00:23:54] babal mandab under huzi control, you know
[00:23:57] it's ironic, the hoodis took over the port of
[00:24:01] mocca, most europeans have no idea that that's the reason
[00:24:05] why coffee, we have maca coffees because that's where
[00:24:09] it came from, and and that's another interesting issue, what's going to
[00:24:13] happen to coffee prices, but so
[00:24:17] we have a really terrible situation. Europe is the
[00:24:21] victim of its own, I don't even want to say Miopia,
[00:24:25] stupidity is more
[00:24:27] the the issue here, they really need to stop the
[00:24:31] war in Ukraine, and then they act all surprised
[00:24:34] when far right parties
[00:24:38] who have which have at their center the
[00:24:41] platform, the the political
[00:24:45] program to pull out of this Ukraine war like the
[00:24:49] alternative. for Deutschland which won the elections in a
[00:24:53] state last week, I
[00:24:55] believe, um, party,
[00:24:59] I don't know how long party, I don't know how
[00:25:02] long
[00:25:03] mer will last in fact, so Europe is already will soon face
[00:25:07] political consequences as result the
[00:25:11] totally misguided economic ones, there's another consequence
[00:25:15] too, China will benefit, China
[00:25:18] is the United States. seems to be doing
[00:25:21] everything to make China the big the next
[00:25:24] big diplomatic, economic
[00:25:26] and military superpower. Absolutely, well we are going to
[00:25:30] see about that. Thank you so much for your insights, those were
[00:25:34] Redica desai, director of geopolitical economy research group joined us from
[00:25:38] the British capital, London, and Alessandra Bruno, author and
[00:25:41] geopolitical analyst joined us from the city of
[00:25:44] Toronto. And that brings us to the end of this edition over
[00:25:48] spotlight program. Thank you for joining us.
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