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20260920 233000 UTC
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[00:00:17] of of
[00:00:17] of
[00:00:23] There has a been over this weekend a major exchange of missile
[00:00:27] fire by Iran and the US
[00:00:29] of targeting. oil tankers and even a
[00:00:33] U.S. destroyer. Uh, the new
[00:00:36] secretary of Iran's supreme National Security
[00:00:40] Council Mohsen Razay said
[00:00:41] in a very recent interview that Iran didn't use
[00:00:45] ballistic missile for that attack on the
[00:00:48] in destroyer.
[00:00:50] of But a new weapon. But let's go to Iran's escalation
[00:00:53] latter, which we've talked about before. This is a country
[00:00:57] that takes its time to send messages and only does so when
[00:01:01] necessary and to serve a strategic objective,
[00:01:05] of unlike the
[00:01:07] of Americans. um, what is Iran's intent in this new round? you
[00:01:11] know, one seems obvious to me, which is to punch a hole in
[00:01:14] Trump's claims that
[00:01:16] of tankers worth 9
[00:01:18] of billion dollars are getting through hormos daily.
[00:01:22] um, and two, it seems to me that Iran is
[00:01:25] now looking to force an end to the
[00:01:28] of US naval
[00:01:29] a blockade. Okay, let's
[00:01:33] start from the beginning, a bit of background is necessary to get to
[00:01:37] your point, the background is that all
[00:01:40] along, what the Iranians were doing is
[00:01:44] since the war started on February 28, the
[00:01:48] primacy was given to the diplomacy, that was the key
[00:01:52] thing, and as far as the military was concerned, it
[00:01:56] was responding it for that to whatever the Americans were.
[00:02:00] in the region, so it was a proportionate response from the
[00:02:04] in Iranian military (IRGC). now when we look at
[00:02:07] diplomacy, what they were
[00:02:11] a of trying to accomplish is create
[00:02:12] a regional framework, what that means
[00:02:16] is when we say
[00:02:18] a regional security framework, it
[00:02:20] in means that all the issues concerning the region should
[00:02:24] be
[00:02:25] of resolved by the countries
[00:02:26] of the region itself without any inter. from
[00:02:30] outside pass, that's
[00:02:32] a regional framework and this is something entirely new,
[00:02:36] just to put it
[00:02:37] in a context, this is the thinking
[00:02:39] of the new world order which has the
[00:02:42] of support of two great powers, russia in China in the
[00:02:46] multipolar world, so what we saw
[00:02:49] was that Iran's foreign minister Abbas
[00:02:52] Arakshi in the month of May and
[00:02:55] June, he traveled to Russia, he met up with
[00:02:59] President Putin. for an hour and a half in Saint
[00:03:01] of Petersburg, after that early June he
[00:03:05] traveled
[00:03:07] of to China, met up with his counterpart Wonghi, got the
[00:03:11] support for this framework from both the countries, and after
[00:03:15] that when he came back, the Iranian leadership would have
[00:03:19] discussed this that look, we got the support, and after that on the
[00:03:23] 30, 23rd of June, Iranian
[00:03:26] president, he did a state visit to
[00:03:30] Pakistan to get
[00:03:31] in Pakistan on board, the Pakistan leadership, because Pakistan
[00:03:35] is playing very important role in this re
[00:03:39] framework, the idea of which is about is coming
[00:03:43] of from
[00:03:44] of Iran, but this is one
[00:03:45] of the key fundamentals
[00:03:47] of the new world order, as I pointed out. As a
[00:03:51] consequence of that, what has happened
[00:03:53] of is that on that what has happened is that on the 31st of
[00:03:57] August two big events happened.
[00:04:00] of On 31st of August in Islamabad in
[00:04:04] sorry in Istanbul in Turkey there was a
[00:04:08] announcement that there will be a
[00:04:11] formalized arrangement was made to be
[00:04:14] of called Macca joint defense agreement where there are
[00:04:18] three countries which is Pakistan, Turkey
[00:04:22] and Saudi Arabia. The concept is of collective
[00:04:25] security, which is what this new world order
[00:04:29] of fundamental thinking. is
[00:04:31] of about, so on the same day, 31st
[00:04:34] of of August, the SEO summit also
[00:04:37] of happened in Kirgistan, and in Kirgistan, when you
[00:04:40] look at the
[00:04:41] a joint statement, there was total
[00:04:44] of support given to Iran, support not only to
[00:04:48] Iran its
[00:04:49] of territorial
[00:04:49] of integrity and sovereinity, to the fact that there
[00:04:53] was aggression on Iran by America and
[00:04:56] Israel and that Iran should... have
[00:05:00] or can have peaceful uses of nuclear energy
[00:05:04] under the NPT, so there was total support for
[00:05:08] Iran
[00:05:08] of and the Iran thinking of
[00:05:10] a regional framework. now Once this was done on the
[00:05:13] 31st of August, this is when the Iranian
[00:05:17] leadership decided, now we need to give
[00:05:20] privacy to the military power,
[00:05:24] and that is when the lead was
[00:05:27] taken by the secretary the supreme National Security
[00:05:31] Council, Major General Marsin Rizai,
[00:05:35] now he is extremely important man, so after
[00:05:39] that there were tanker to tanker hits now, you see a
[00:05:43] tanker does not have any defensive means, but the
[00:05:46] key thing was what resided, he
[00:05:50] fired something unusual that the Iranians had not done
[00:05:54] before, and first thing to note is that the firing
[00:05:58] was not done by the IRGC navy,
[00:06:02] it was done by the IRGC aerospace
[00:06:05] force, and what was fired was a
[00:06:09] anti-hip ballistic missile with... a
[00:06:13] suppressed trajectory or depressed
[00:06:16] trajectory and this missile is being called Kasim
[00:06:19] Basir. Now this was basically fired
[00:06:23] as demonstration to tell the Americans that
[00:06:27] look all your fleet which is part the naval
[00:06:31] blockade that you have put there, naval blockade
[00:06:35] is an act of war. Until now the Iranians
[00:06:39] were quiet about it. So this was clear.
[00:06:42] indication about the vulnerability that the US military
[00:06:46] faces and sentcom acknowledged that yes
[00:06:50] this missile ballistic missile was fired but our
[00:06:54] aircraft carrier obviously it was George Washington now
[00:06:58] what happens is that whenever there is a aircraft
[00:07:01] carrier then there are lot of guided
[00:07:04] missile destroyers which provided
[00:07:07] basically the security which provide the defense
[00:07:11] and what these guided missile destroyers have what
[00:07:15] is called the ag system,
[00:07:19] now in this edges combat system, the interceptors
[00:07:23] are there and the interceptors or the American
[00:07:27] destroyers are of ratio company, there are three
[00:07:30] types, the SM2 which is standard missile 2,
[00:07:33] standard missile three and standard missile six. the long and
[00:07:37] short the story is that the missile that was
[00:07:41] fired and ballistic missile with depressed
[00:07:44] trajectory, it basically means that it it
[00:07:48] did not leave the atmosphere, it stayed within the
[00:07:52] stratosphere on the higher reaches the atmosphere, so we
[00:07:56] are looking at altitude of about 60 to 80
[00:08:00] or 90 kilometers, it stayed there and
[00:08:04] it had a speed of close to 10 mac
[00:08:07] and mac is the speed of sound and it
[00:08:11] it fire. at by the IRGC aerospace
[00:08:15] force, it was filed a distance of around
[00:08:18] 1000 kms and with a
[00:08:21] warhead which has a weight of close to
[00:08:25] 1.3 ton. now this
[00:08:28] SM6, this is supposed to take a ballistic
[00:08:32] missile or hostile ballistic missile within
[00:08:36] the atmosphere when it is in the descent phase, it is coming
[00:08:40] down because ballistic missile follows a
[00:08:43] parabolic path, it is very clearly defined path,
[00:08:47] but the problem here is that this missile is coming at
[00:08:51] such a speed and the SM6
[00:08:54] interceptors the Americans, they have only been
[00:08:57] tested in a controlled environment, not in a
[00:09:01] operational environment, and when you have
[00:09:05] this missile coming at such a speed, it does not
[00:09:08] give any reaction time to the SM6 and the...
[00:09:12] radar the ages system, which is very good
[00:09:15] radar to basically identify the that
[00:09:19] yes, there is hostile missile coming and to kill
[00:09:22] that missile, so the point i making
[00:09:26] is as far as the Americans are concerned, they are totally defenseless
[00:09:29] against this missile and the Americans
[00:09:32] know it, and what this missile
[00:09:35] can do is because of its 1.3 or 1.2 ton
[00:09:39] warhead, it has explosive power and it has kinetic
[00:09:43] energy, so if it hits a
[00:09:46] ship, it can actually go through the deck the
[00:09:49] ship, that is what it can do, so the point
[00:09:53] here is mosin razi has made it clear
[00:09:57] that this is the capability we have, and what is being told
[00:10:01] to the Americans is on the one hand
[00:10:05] that look, you lift your naval blockage that
[00:10:09] you have put in place, it was put two times, once on the
[00:10:13] 13th of April and after that early
[00:10:16] July,
[00:10:17] you know, I think it was early July after they signed the mou
[00:10:21] on 17th of June, so the point being made is...
[00:10:25] that this is your vulnerability and wel hit it, and
[00:10:28] already now the reports are saying that sendcom,
[00:10:32] they have moved their ship further back, and what
[00:10:36] Ri has further announced is that look, wherever
[00:10:40] the line the blockade now is the
[00:10:43] blockade, starting from there, there will be
[00:10:46] restricted zone a restrictive zone that
[00:10:50] covers the gulf of Oman, state of hermos and goes all
[00:10:54] along along the persian gulf to the north we are talking
[00:10:58] about a length of 1500
[00:11:02] km, this will all be restricted zone, so the
[00:11:05] long and short is enormous capabilities they have in
[00:11:09] state of hormos, not to go in the details right now, i'm just
[00:11:13] trying to give you a broad big of what's
[00:11:17] happening, so what they are basically saying
[00:11:20] Iranians is that on the one hand we are
[00:11:23] announcing very soon a restricted zone because
[00:11:27] Razay has said that this is not state of Harmos, this is
[00:11:31] state of Iran's dignity. now on the
[00:11:35] other hand, now on the other hand, they have made
[00:11:39] the conditions for assumption of talk conditions for assumption
[00:11:43] of talk extremely harsh and extremely
[00:11:46] difficult, and of all the conditions, if you ask me, I have
[00:11:50] to pick up a single one, I would say that they want the
[00:11:53] American forces. out of West Asia,
[00:11:57] this is very big thing in because you see what I
[00:12:01] earlier mentioned to you that they have created
[00:12:05] this regional framework, the physical manifestation of
[00:12:08] which is the Makka joint defense agreement with headquarters
[00:12:12] in Saudi Arabia and the first
[00:12:16] secretary general to be from Pakistan, it's
[00:12:19] a very big thing and top of that
[00:12:23] already two countries. Sergi Labrov has said
[00:12:27] they are interested in joining this you know this
[00:12:30] Macca joint defense agreement and these countries are
[00:12:34] Egypt that will be very big thing because Egypt
[00:12:37] basically is a country which is
[00:12:40] transcontinental the Sinai is in part of west
[00:12:44] Asia but all the Egypt is in North Africa
[00:12:48] and then Algeria has been mentioned as another
[00:12:51] country so this is what is being created and
[00:12:55] get the Americans out of West Asia,
[00:12:58] so let me just finish this broad overview
[00:13:02] by telling you that Americans today have no
[00:13:06] military options at all given their vulnerability,
[00:13:10] and what is their vulnerability, they have enormous military
[00:13:14] capabilities, they are one country which spend one
[00:13:17] trillion dollars on the Pentagon on the defense
[00:13:21] budget, but unfortunately the... abilities
[00:13:25] they have, they are the 20th century warfare,
[00:13:29] big destroyers, big aircraft carrier or has
[00:13:32] changed, these are the vulnerabilities are now,
[00:13:36] now no longer the assets and I am not even talking
[00:13:40] about right now, the enormous cyber
[00:13:43] capabilities that today the Iranians have, so
[00:13:47] Iranians are wise people who have gone step
[00:13:51] by step, there are far too many other vulnerability also,
[00:13:55] which they can destroy and the Americans know it,
[00:13:58] so Americans, yeah, please, no, you've given us such a
[00:14:02] broad overview that you've almost hit my entire lot
[00:14:06] of questions, but so let's dig deeper into some these
[00:14:09] points, mosin ri of course announced
[00:14:13] that it said that Iran would announce
[00:14:15] shortly this new no go zone
[00:14:19] around hormos which would extend to the US Navy's
[00:14:23] blockade line. "We don't actually know where the
[00:14:26] bloccade is, um, because the
[00:14:30] Americans don't announce where their their ships are based
[00:14:34] in in various waterways, but it sounds, you were
[00:14:38] talking about going to the north the Persian Gulf, it sounds that Iran is now
[00:14:41] expanding the military theater in
[00:14:44] waterways, well into the Arabian sea
[00:14:48] and Indian Ocean, from where the US Navy
[00:14:52] ostensibly enforces its blockade." um,
[00:14:55] but
[00:14:56] you know, here's the thing, the US Navy is
[00:15:00] likely to strike Iranian ships in any waters, anywhere
[00:15:04] in the world, so it's not a blockade in the typical
[00:15:08] sense, where you prevent ships from moving within
[00:15:11] a defined uh,
[00:15:14] you know, waterway geography, how do you see
[00:15:18] this develop? all right, first of all, first of
[00:15:21] all, there are reports and you have satel
[00:15:25] pictures, because the Iranians are
[00:15:29] helped by the Chinese space capabilities which are way
[00:15:32] ahead that the Americans, which is why in
[00:15:36] 2019 President Trump in his first term in office,
[00:15:39] he created the space force new service.
[00:15:43] Now the point here to understand is that reports
[00:15:47] clearly say that the blockade is 300
[00:15:51] kilometers away from the Gulf of Forman and
[00:15:55] the Cyncom reports now are coming and saying they pulled back
[00:15:59] now another 100 kilometers, so we are talking about
[00:16:02] a 400 kilometer present line. Now talking
[00:16:06] the... there what you said, let's understand what
[00:16:10] is the war theater about for
[00:16:13] Iran, today the Iranians have
[00:16:16] the missiles and the drones, Iranians have
[00:16:20] drones which are jet part, which are long
[00:16:24] range, which can fire with precision because the
[00:16:27] space capabilities provided by the Chinese, their
[00:16:31] bedu three constellation as well as the Yagon
[00:16:34] augmentation satellite systems. which are there in the
[00:16:38] lower orbat which provide you a persistent
[00:16:42] stare the theater, the theatre
[00:16:45] today, when you look at the north, it goes to
[00:16:49] the entire Mediterranean sea, and now you look at
[00:16:53] south, in the Indian Ocean region, we are talking
[00:16:57] about the capability of Iran to hit
[00:17:00] digoghasya, and dig today
[00:17:03] is one logistic base the Americans which is
[00:17:07] serving three commands, it is serving the Africa
[00:17:11] command, it is serving sidcom and it is serving pacific
[00:17:14] command, and given the cyber capabilities that
[00:17:18] today the Iranians have, first of all
[00:17:22] cyber capabilities are such that they can
[00:17:26] anywhere in the state of hermose or around that
[00:17:30] disturb or disrupt,
[00:17:33] the communications, ship to ship communications.
[00:17:37] the US Navy and ship to show communications
[00:17:41] and as far as Digo Garcier is concerned,
[00:17:45] the entire logistic base the Americans which is
[00:17:48] huge base is automated, so it is
[00:17:52] all digitized. Now when you have all
[00:17:55] digitalization, that means your missiles are a particular
[00:17:58] bunker, your fuel is somewhere else, then your loading
[00:18:02] sites are somewhere else, then they have massive runways for
[00:18:06] their stealth bomb. everything is there
[00:18:09] digitized and the brain of a digitization is what
[00:18:13] is called the PLC, programmable logic
[00:18:17] controllers and today the Iranians have come
[00:18:21] very long way from 2010, please
[00:18:24] recall in 2010 the Americans and
[00:18:28] the Israelis they had done their
[00:18:31] stuckness you
[00:18:33] know.
[00:18:38] their centrifuges malware and what they
[00:18:42] did with that was that the centrifuges the
[00:18:45] nasan facility nuclear facilities they were
[00:18:49] disrupted so today the Iranians have come a
[00:18:53] long way and they can disrupt the PLCs which are
[00:18:57] there indigogartia in other words create
[00:19:00] disturbance create complete chaos at digo
[00:19:03] garsia so what theater are we talking of what?
[00:19:07] capabilities are we talking of, so they cover
[00:19:10] everything, their drones and missile capabilities
[00:19:14] and everything what they have is underground, the
[00:19:18] Iranians, this is the work done over decades, what
[00:19:22] they have done over decades, they have studied the
[00:19:25] Americans, the military capabilities of Americans
[00:19:29] and the strategy the
[00:19:31] Israelis and of course
[00:19:35] the American, the US Navy has... retreated to Diego Garcia
[00:19:39] because they've lost access to the fifth
[00:19:43] fleet headquarters in
[00:19:45] Bahrain, um,
[00:19:48] correct? That's right, so they have
[00:19:51] lost basically the fifth fleet in Bahrain, the
[00:19:55] infrastructure has been destroyed there, so now the
[00:19:58] logistics for their ships, it is
[00:20:02] coming from
[00:20:03] Digo Garcia, and because PET Hekset kept this, he did not...
[00:20:07] disclose this, perhaps even to his commandering chief, the
[00:20:11] destruction in chief, the destruction by the
[00:20:14] Iranians in Bahrain to the logistic
[00:20:17] center that we we then now we have the
[00:20:21] reports the problems that Abraham
[00:20:24] lincoln air faced, it was all
[00:20:28] because of not telling publically as
[00:20:31] to what all has happened on Abraham Lincoln, so
[00:20:35] Abraham Lincoln now I think is... somewhere in Thailand, Thailand,
[00:20:39] yeah, why would they go all the way to Thailand and not to Diego
[00:20:43] Garcia? No, Diego Garcia basically is
[00:20:47] a port for the refilling, it is logistic.
[00:20:50] but for the repairs and everything they have to go to Thailand, they
[00:20:54] have basically, they have basically three
[00:20:58] allies, Thailand is one allies, South Korea is
[00:21:01] another and Japan is another, and then of course they have
[00:21:05] Australia, this is what they have, now as far as Pacific
[00:21:09] Command is concerned, there they have massive shortages
[00:21:13] of interceptors and
[00:21:15] initions, and all these interceptors they
[00:21:19] take. to build, not that,
[00:21:23] you see America's industrial, military
[00:21:26] industrial capabilities, they are very
[00:21:30] frugal right now, to build them up to a war
[00:21:33] surge level that will take a few years,
[00:21:37] nothing happen a hurry, so the point is that when you
[00:21:41] talk of a theater, the theater are under the
[00:21:45] command of and the not command really, they are under the
[00:21:49] observation. total observation 24
[00:21:52] into 7, what is what we call persistent
[00:21:56] stair the Iranians? i also think the
[00:21:59] war with Iran is um
[00:22:02] offering opportunities to break
[00:22:06] all the US dominated global networks from
[00:22:09] insurance to shipping even you
[00:22:13] know AI data centers right, these are all
[00:22:17] potentially targets on Iran's escalation. ladder if
[00:22:21] the US persists at this ridiculous war, but you you
[00:22:25] made a really important point about the US um fighting a
[00:22:28] 20th century war in the 21st century, it
[00:22:32] is, it is outcassed as we
[00:22:36] have seen, but but so
[00:22:40] then are its allies because they
[00:22:43] operate under those same paradigms right,
[00:22:46] militarily, and that means... Israel
[00:22:50] is included in this, Israel will be outclassed
[00:22:54] a direct Iran Israel
[00:22:56] confrontation, but I want to ask you from
[00:23:00] where you sit, is return to direct war between Iran and
[00:23:03] Israel inevitable, is Iran waiting for the US to retreat
[00:23:07] entirely before that kicks off, as you know, I'm sitting in
[00:23:11] Beirot right now, the situation southern Lebanon has become
[00:23:14] untenable, Israel is blowing up entire villages and towns
[00:23:18] every single day in the south. "and
[00:23:20] as we know, it was Iran's number one demand in the failed Mou
[00:23:24] from last June, a withdrawal of all Israeli forces from Leben on all
[00:23:28] regional states, does this war end,
[00:23:32] whether today or next year or three years down the road within an
[00:23:36] evitable Iran, Israel final
[00:23:39] showdown? see, first of all, let me start by
[00:23:43] telling you that Israel is not a
[00:23:46] military power, we Israel" military
[00:23:50] capabilities are overblower. Israel basically is
[00:23:54] a state which does terrorism. israel's
[00:23:58] unique thing is Musad. that is what they
[00:24:01] do. now as far as lebanon southern Lebanon is
[00:24:05] concern. you know it's a story which we can discuss another time.
[00:24:09] you are sitting there, you know lot. the long and short is
[00:24:13] that the Iranians are very clear that they have to also
[00:24:17] clear the security zone that they have captured. southern
[00:24:20] Lebanon and any case Beirot is the is their red
[00:24:24] line where you are coming back to Israel, please, but coming
[00:24:28] back to Israel, please remember when this war started
[00:24:31] in just a couple of weeks, the Israeli
[00:24:35] chief of army he publically made the
[00:24:38] statement that the IDF is over
[00:24:41] stretched because
[00:24:45] they are everywhere, they are fighting a war with, they are
[00:24:49] with southern. southern Lebanon, in
[00:24:52] southern Lebanon, they are in Syria, they are with the
[00:24:55] Yemen, and they are fatigued, so the point I'm
[00:24:59] making talking about between talking about
[00:25:03] between Iran and Israel after the American
[00:25:07] leaves, I don't think it makes any
[00:25:09] sense, because yes of course
[00:25:13] Israel will have the capabilities of sent
[00:25:15] com, there is no doubt about it because the
[00:25:19] strong. lobby in Washington and in the US
[00:25:22] congress, but the point the matter is
[00:25:25] that once the once the American forces
[00:25:29] leave and in that time frame even this
[00:25:33] Macca joint agreement would also have further
[00:25:37] expanded and one the things the Makka difference
[00:25:40] agreement is the concept of collective
[00:25:44] deterrence, there are two key concepts, one
[00:25:48] is collective security, the other is collective deterence,
[00:25:51] so even today, if the Israelis have to attack
[00:25:55] Turkey, if they have to fight with Turkey, Turkey has no interest in
[00:25:59] fighting with the Israelies, but "if they
[00:26:03] fight, then they have to duftail this in their
[00:26:06] war scheming that there are three countries,
[00:26:10] now whether one will fight or how many will fight, what
[00:26:14] sort of capabilities will be provided by the other two countries to
[00:26:18] turkey, israelis have to keep that in mind, and
[00:26:22] as this agreement you know more and more
[00:26:25] countries joined, iran iran's hand will be
[00:26:29] strengthened, not weakened, we are. looking a
[00:26:33] situation, perhaps even
[00:26:36] you know by next year the entire situation will change
[00:26:39] and change to the detriment of Israel, not
[00:26:43] to the benefit of
[00:26:44] israel.
[00:27:19] Saudi Arabia thought it could bypass hormos. It thought its
[00:27:22] pipelines, its American weapons and its strategic partnerships could keep
[00:27:26] the oil flowing and the kingdom insulated from the consequences of
[00:27:30] regional war, but that... carefully constructed illusion is now
[00:27:34] cracking, this week we examine how strikes have forced the shutdown
[00:27:38] of riyadh's crucial east-west pipeline while Yemen's armed
[00:27:42] forces and nasarulah are rapidly reshaping the strategic
[00:27:46] equation around Babel Mandib. KSA's oil
[00:27:49] bypass backfires this week on the mediast
[00:27:53] stream.
[00:30:17] Your headlines on first TV Iran's parliament speaker says despite his
[00:30:21] apparent hegemony the US is vulnerable to the hormones straight
[00:30:24] closure and cannot suffocate Iran economically without any
[00:30:28] blowback. Yemen's top military officials warn of devastating
[00:30:32] response to Saudi blockade the country that will target the
[00:30:36] regime's strategic depth and interests
[00:30:39] and the death doll from Ukraine's drone attacks on Russia's main oil
[00:30:43] refinery and residential building rises to three with nearly
[00:30:46] 20 others
[00:30:47] injured.