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20260926 103000 UTC
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[00:00:00] 8:49 for diesel and California. Join us in this
[00:00:04] edition of
[00:00:05] of program where we have a special guest
[00:00:07] of with us, Paulinera batista Jr., former executive director at international
[00:00:11] monetary fund or the IMF. What's what's
[00:00:15] going on in my opinion is the lack of trust
[00:00:17] increasingly
[00:00:20] of fragile confidence in the public finances
[00:00:24] and death of united
[00:00:26] of states. Do join us in this edition
[00:00:27] of the program of economic
[00:00:29] of divide.
[00:00:34] of
[00:00:38] Panic in the White House. Mr. Trump is so desperate that he is
[00:00:42] offering voters $5,000, so strap
[00:00:46] in as we start today's
[00:00:49] of Gringo. The secretary of state saying that we're very close to deal in the middle
[00:00:54] in east. We've been talking about this uh department of so we won the first world
[00:00:58] war, we won the second world.
[00:01:01] of
[00:01:15] a doubt that the elections on November the 3rd known as the
[00:01:19] midterms in the United States are hugely significant.
[00:01:23] control of both chambers of congress is at stake, but
[00:01:26] beyond being issue of interest and debate within... United
[00:01:30] States, what does it mean for us? What does it mean for the
[00:01:34] rest
[00:01:34] of the
[00:01:35] world?
[00:01:40] The midterm elections are closing in, and Trump doesn't know how to stop the
[00:01:44] avalanch he created with his war against Iran.
[00:01:47] me More and more images are emerging showing the massive destruction
[00:01:50] caused by Iran's response at US bases around the Persian
[00:01:54] Gulf. This is being reported by US military officials
[00:01:58] themselves and american media. We have an exclusive look at
[00:02:02] damage to US military sites in the middle east from Iranian drone and missile
[00:02:05] strikes. Active service members sent these photos to CBS News in his
[00:02:09] defeat against Iran, Trump has officially spent
[00:02:12] $44 billion so far. The American
[00:02:16] people are not happy about that at all. It is coming out
[00:02:19] of their pockets and they have to pay even
[00:02:22] in more. As
[00:02:23] a result
[00:02:23] of the same war, gasoline prices have approached $6 a
[00:02:27] gallon, while diesel, essential for transportation. has reached
[00:02:31] a historic
[00:02:31] of $6.39 a gallon, before the war, it
[00:02:35] was $3.70. the president is being
[00:02:39] crushed by the facts and is falling in the polls. only
[00:02:43] 38% approve of him. trump sees his party's elections
[00:02:46] slipping away, and
[00:02:48] in a desperate move, is offering $500 per
[00:02:52] person to get them to go out and vote. if
[00:02:56] the republicans win the house of representatives and the United States
[00:03:00] "I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the
[00:03:04] United States of America for
[00:03:07] $5,
[00:03:14] tengo dos invitados, I have two guests with
[00:03:18] me, I'll go first to Los Angeles,
[00:03:20] in California, where we have Juan Jose Gutierrez, leader
[00:03:24] of the Full Rights for immigrants coalition, we also have
[00:03:28] professor Eduardo Rosales'.
[00:03:50] of
[00:04:00] maintain control of both chambers of congress does not constitute a
[00:04:03] criminal act, because the president did not explicitly say that
[00:04:07] if people voted Republican, he would pay them that
[00:04:10] $500. He described it as
[00:04:14] a dividend. He said that,
[00:04:16] of regardless of how people vote, as long as Republicans
[00:04:20] maintain control of both chambers of congress everyone's
[00:04:23] in the United States, that would come to around 1.225
[00:04:27] trillion dollars in other words, nearly 1.3
[00:04:31] trillion dollars. Now, the president has no
[00:04:34] institutional authority to order that this
[00:04:37] of money be paid, hypothetically
[00:04:39] of of speaking, if Republicans won and maintained control of
[00:04:42] Congress. So I think that deep down, what's
[00:04:46] behind all of this is that the president really is, as the quote you
[00:04:50] just mentioned, indicates, panicking. Republicans are
[00:04:54] afraid
[00:04:54] of of losing their majority in Congress,
[00:04:57] of because that would put them
[00:04:58] in a position that I would say, is not only
[00:05:02] of uncomfortable, but politically dangerous. The majority in both chambers
[00:05:05] of Congress determines who chairs each
[00:05:09] of
[00:05:11] of of the committees that already exist, as well as any future committees. established for a specific purpose, and the
[00:05:15] president is very afraid that they could impeach him. On
[00:05:19] top of that, the congressional majority has the power to call
[00:05:23] all kinds of hearings to conduct investigations, and demand
[00:05:27] that all sorts of documents be handed over, including
[00:05:30] classified material, and obviously that is what has
[00:05:34] the president terrified as well as powerful members the
[00:05:38] Republican Party.
[00:05:40] That is why he is making this promise. to prevent Republican
[00:05:43] voters, who typically turn out in lower numbers in mid-term
[00:05:47] elections than they do in presidential elections, from staying
[00:05:51] home this time around. On top of that, many are
[00:05:54] disappointed that the president has failed to keep promises he made,
[00:05:58] such as keeping us out of war, lowering the cost of living and so
[00:06:02] on. Everything has gone in the opposite
[00:06:05] direction. As the Uruguayan writer Gillana once put
[00:06:09] it, the United States is upside down. and large
[00:06:13] parts the world are two, so I think what the president has
[00:06:17] done with this promise is almost, almost a
[00:06:20] bribe, but he wanted to make this election personal for
[00:06:24] voters. In other words, you have
[00:06:27] $5,000 at stake if republicans win, I'll
[00:06:31] pay you, or at least there's a possibility that you'll get paid.
[00:06:35] If you don't vote, you won't get anything if we lose, so the
[00:06:38] average person starts thinking, 5,000 for me.
[00:06:42] another $5,00 for my wife, that's $10,000 on
[00:06:46] the line, maybe I'd better get motivated and go
[00:06:50] vote,
[00:06:51] and the reason is that there is lot of panic over everything that could
[00:06:55] come crashing down politically, not only on the
[00:06:58] president,
[00:07:05] oye pues como dice aquel dicho, well as the saying goes, a
[00:07:09] bird in the hand is worth two in the boy, so
[00:07:12] even some democrats, I presume, might vote for Republicans to get
[00:07:16] that money. That kind of money would
[00:07:19] be huge relief for many American
[00:07:21] families.
[00:07:28] Well, I'd like to put two things in the table as background
[00:07:32] and context. First, we have to point out that Trump's
[00:07:36] approval ratings are very, very low, but that's not so to
[00:07:40] speak the main problem, rather
[00:07:42] it is. has taken for granted that if the elections were held right now,
[00:07:46] the Republican Party would lose its majority in the house of
[00:07:49] representatives, but what has raised the red flags is
[00:07:53] the possibility that they could also lose their majority in the
[00:07:57] senate, and that would be particularly serious. in Georgia,
[00:08:01] Maine, Ohio, and Texas, there is a strong
[00:08:04] possibility that democrats could win. Texas has been
[00:08:08] Republican for many years, but today there is a possibility that democrat.
[00:08:12] could win there, so Trump could lose control of Congress all
[00:08:16] together. My colleague, Juan already mentioned what that would
[00:08:19] mean, second, we should also point out that this has driven
[00:08:23] President Trump to come up with series of wild
[00:08:27] ideas, not just the 5,000 payment with a colossal
[00:08:30] budget deficit of nearly two
[00:08:33] trillion
[00:08:39] dollars.
[00:08:40] Juan says it's not illegal, are you saying? it is
[00:08:43] illegal,
[00:08:47] i believe
[00:08:48] it is, because while it's true that he says everyone would receive
[00:08:51] it, regardless of how they vote, he's obviously tipping the
[00:08:55] scales toward the republican vote, so there's something improper about
[00:08:59] that, and besides, he wouldn't be giving people the
[00:09:02] $5,000 out of his own pocket, it would come from
[00:09:06] public funds through indirect taxes which would further increase
[00:09:10] the enormous us debt and huge budget deficit,
[00:09:14] which is nearly two trillion dollars. In other words, it would be
[00:09:17] disastrous, but anyway, let me move to some of his other
[00:09:21] wild ideas, like putting his image on the currency,
[00:09:25] changing the name of lake Ontario, that famous map the
[00:09:29] United States that includes Canada, Mexico and Cuba
[00:09:33] and some islands in and Greenland, and Greenland,
[00:09:36] exactly. At one point he even included Venezuela, so
[00:09:40] this is all part of this series of... desperate measures,
[00:09:44] sometimes they sound ridiculous, but they are also sad,
[00:09:47] embarrassing and outrageous, all an attempt to
[00:09:50] maintain control the legislative branch. We should all and what
[00:09:54] Kininton said back in the and what killinton said back in the
[00:09:58] day, it's the economy, and economically speaking, things are
[00:10:02] frankly very bad, why? because inflation is above
[00:10:05] 3%, almost 3.5%. gas
[00:10:09] prices have gone up more than ever since the beginning of War between the
[00:10:13] United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the
[00:10:16] other, gas prices have increased by 60%,
[00:10:20] and by the way, despite the enormous military superiority the United
[00:10:24] States. "the issue with Iran has not been resolved, the Iranian
[00:10:28] government continues to maintain control the country and
[00:10:32] control the straight of hormos, so this is an entire adverse
[00:10:36] context for President Trump and it is pushing him toward these kinds of
[00:10:39] statements even irresponsible ones in attempt,
[00:10:43] I repeat to maintain control the legislative branch,
[00:10:47] despite his very low popularity and his
[00:10:50] obvious failures both domestically and
[00:10:53] abroad."
[00:11:55] so giving away $1.3 trillion dollars would still be
[00:11:58] something we would have to wait and see before criminal charges could
[00:12:02] theoretically be brought against him as provided by
[00:12:05] law. Juan
[00:12:09] jose, before i go back to Eduardo, let ask you
[00:12:12] this: in the US, there's something known as the October
[00:12:16] surprise in the period leading up to the elections, in this case
[00:12:20] the mid terms, what could the elements of a possible
[00:12:24] october?
[00:13:33] That way, any legal, political, or other actions that might be taken in the
[00:13:37] event of democratic victory could be portrayed as
[00:13:40] illegitimate. Through all these maneuvers,
[00:13:44] mainly legal and political, he could refuse to recognize
[00:13:47] democratic victory, and claim that the democrats did not
[00:13:51] actually win majority in the November elections.
[00:13:54] people
[00:14:03] normally
[00:14:07] speculate for example about what would be better for us, whether
[00:14:11] democrats or republicans are in power, and outside
[00:14:14] Mexico, in other parts the world, in this particular case, the
[00:14:18] United States under Donald Trump, has very clearly
[00:14:21] cided with Israel in this war against Iran. along with
[00:14:25] series of policies you've already mentioned, the straight of hormos, and
[00:14:29] so on. Is there something that would be better for the world, for
[00:14:33] Mexico, for Latin America, for democrats to win, or
[00:14:36] does it ultimately make little difference since US foreign
[00:14:40] policy in many aspects, since US foreign policy in many
[00:14:44] respects is quite similar under Democrats and Republicans? Se
[00:14:48] parece mucho diría yo entre demócratas y republicanos,
[00:14:52] bueno, yo creo que por totalmente de acuerdo con.
[00:14:56] Well, I completely agree with you, my dear Ruben, frankly, one or the
[00:15:00] other is practically the same, two sides the same coin. However, in
[00:15:04] this particular situation, in the circumstances we are living through,
[00:15:07] I think that not only for Mexico, but for the world,
[00:15:11] democratic victory would be more favorable. I believe there are
[00:15:15] some positions that are little more accommodating, more willing
[00:15:19] to negotiate, engage in dialogue and seek consensus, and those
[00:15:22] do contrast with the positions currently. being taken by the
[00:15:26] occupant the white house, going back a little to the question you
[00:15:30] asked, about the october surprise, i think
[00:15:33] it could be that the republican party manages to maintain control of... both
[00:15:37] chambers, which looks particularly difficult. now, on the other
[00:15:41] hand, we should also point out that it's not just about Trump's low
[00:15:45] popularity, meaning how the public perceives its president,
[00:15:49] which frankly has been quite negative. i also think there
[00:15:52] is a fracture within the republican party between the moderates so to
[00:15:56] speak, and the maga supporters. the famous make america
[00:16:00] great again movement. we can see this in two very recent
[00:16:04] developments, my colleague Juan mentioned one them. namely
[00:16:08] that the Supreme Court, to put it very subtly, did not approve the
[00:16:11] restrictions Trump wanted to impose and it also goes against
[00:16:15] Trump's openly stated wishes, so to recap: a country
[00:16:19] deeply in debt, a country with a budget deficit, a country
[00:16:23] with a trade deficit, a country where 15% the
[00:16:26] population lives in poverty, a country with enormous
[00:16:30] concentrations of wealth a country facing all these problems,
[00:16:34] and Trump himself said, "I'm going to end all..." wars, yet he
[00:16:38] hasn't ended the main one he's involved in right now, then there are
[00:16:42] the trade disputes with Canada, just look at all the disagreements
[00:16:46] his had with them, the European Union is even considering making
[00:16:50] Canada associate member, there are disputes with
[00:16:54] Mexico, rising food prices, rising, yet his speaches like
[00:16:58] the one about the $500 are classic examples of
[00:17:01] right-wing clásicos populism, de
[00:17:05] pues los populistas de derecha,
[00:17:07] mi querido Rubén.
[00:17:37] secretary of defense, now also referred to as the Secretary of
[00:17:41] War, Pete Hegsith, over all the strategic
[00:17:45] operational and other mistakes in the war against the Islamic Republic
[00:17:48] of Iran. That caused a political
[00:17:51] earthquake, and I think it is a loose thread that is still
[00:17:55] hanging there, a political thread that many other members of
[00:17:59] Congress could pick up a hypothetical future congress in which
[00:18:02] democrats controlled either one or both
[00:18:05] chambers. In that sense, regardless
[00:18:09] the fact that
[00:18:10] we understand that the American political system, although largely
[00:18:14] divided between Republicans and Democrats, ultimately
[00:18:18] represents the same interests. I would agree with Professor
[00:18:21] Eduardo that it will matter a great deal which party wins the
[00:18:25] legislative elections. There are very significant
[00:18:29] issues at stake, not only within the United States
[00:18:32] but around the world. He has already mentioned them all, but above
[00:18:36] all, I would point.
[00:19:07] 'if i were living in the US right now and could vote, might
[00:19:11] say, well, maybe i'll go with the democrats, right?
[00:19:15] unless this financial offer comes into play, and people
[00:19:18] say, well, for $5, we'll sell our souls to the
[00:19:22] devil, right, nos vendemos al demonio, no,
[00:19:26] bueno, mira, para que el
[00:19:28] público, vote in
[00:19:32] concrete terms for the audience watching this program, we're
[00:19:35] talking about those of us who are US citizens and will be able to vote on
[00:19:39] November 3 and more importantly, those
[00:19:43] who based on how we voted in
[00:19:45] the last three elections are statistically expected to turn out.
[00:19:48] half of all those voters are naturalized
[00:19:52] latino citizens. In other words, the Latino
[00:19:56] vote, the citizen vote, but from an immigrant Latino
[00:20:00] background is going to be decisive in determining which
[00:20:04] way the balance tips in favor of one party or the other.
[00:20:08] Right now, I think there is a widespread conviction within the Latino
[00:20:12] community that a strategic mistake was already made when
[00:20:16] 52% the Latino vote went to Donald Trump two years
[00:20:19] ago. That support has now collapsed, and at this
[00:20:23] point, among the electoral preferences of Latino
[00:20:27] voters, less than 30% say they intend to vote for
[00:20:31] Trump. That means he has lost almost 30%
[00:20:34] the support he received two years ago.
[00:21:20] What about Mexico, a military intervention in Mexico against the
[00:21:24] drug
[00:21:24] cartels?
[00:21:28] I think people don't change, and neither does Trump. For example,
[00:21:32] in foreign policy, he has now literally taken control of Venezuelan
[00:21:36] oil, and following that logic, his political and military
[00:21:39] actions against Iran will probably intensify, but we can
[00:21:43] also expect his actions and especially his statements against
[00:21:47] certain European countries to intensify as... well as against
[00:21:51] canada and he will certainly not lot up on greenland, that
[00:21:55] much needs to be very clear, but what concerns me more about the
[00:21:59] United States is whether the election results will actually be
[00:22:02] respected in terms of global democracy indicators, the
[00:22:06] United States is at one of its lowest points with red
[00:22:10] flags over what is happening in what is also known as the
[00:22:13] union, me
[00:22:16] recuerda que ofreció. that he offered
[00:22:20] a lot of oil at the G20 meeting, it brings to mind the
[00:22:24] energy issue, and you already mentioned that famous line from
[00:22:28] Clinton's campaign, it's the
[00:22:30] economy,
[00:22:32] entonces,
[00:22:37] thank you very much, Juan José, thank you very
[00:22:40] much, a big hug to both of you, and from my point of view,
[00:22:44] frankly, this business of offering should have joined me again a
[00:22:48] future edition of Gring.
[00:22:59] When Iraq invaded Iran in 1980, Said Ali
[00:23:02] Khamani went to the frontlines, but as the war
[00:23:06] entered its second year, his role
[00:23:08] changed, from battlefield visits to the
[00:23:12] presidency, from military coordination to international
[00:23:16] diplomacy, he became part of Iran's wartime leadership.
[00:23:22] This is the story of his eight-year journey through the Iran-Iraq
[00:23:26] war.
[00:23:45] For more than three decades, Iran's military
[00:23:48] doctrine rested on
[00:23:50] on one simple principle: strategic patience and retaliatory
[00:23:54] deterrence, nation still bearing the scars of eight-year
[00:23:57] imposed war, preferred to deter aggression through a
[00:24:01] network of defensive capability rather than direct
[00:24:05] confrontation, but today the page has
[00:24:07] turned. i'm and this is a
[00:24:10] nutshell.
[00:24:37] To understand this shift, we have to go back to the roots of Iran's
[00:24:41] defensive doctrine: the eight-year war that Iraq backed
[00:24:44] by western powers imposed on Iran left a deep
[00:24:48] imprint on the nation's military. be thinking, from that
[00:24:52] point on, Iran adopted a policy of passive defense, and later
[00:24:55] mosaic defense, an approach built on dispersing
[00:24:59] military of this defensive doctrine was Iran's missile program. The
[00:25:03] experience of Iraqi missile strikes on Iranian cities convinced Tehran
[00:25:07] that missile capability had to sit at the heart of its deterrant
[00:25:10] strategy. Alongside that, combat drones, asymmetrical naval
[00:25:14] assets latitively costly without direct engagement. This
[00:25:17] approach relied on deterrance through the threat. of retaliation, not
[00:25:21] preemption, and the 40-day war that began in February, and the
[00:25:25] 40-day war that began in February of 2026, permanently
[00:25:28] changed that equation. Iranian commanders have
[00:25:32] explicitly stated
[00:25:33] that the country's doctrine is shifting from defensive to
[00:25:37] offensive. army spokesman, brigadier general Muhammad Akraminia made
[00:25:41] clear that this shift has occurred gradually over the course these two
[00:25:45] most recent wars. muhammad, advisor to the IRG commander and
[00:25:49] chief, also... emphasized that Iranian forces must be ready to take
[00:25:52] operations into enemy territory whenever conditions demanded, rather than
[00:25:56] simply waiting to absorb a strike. The leader the Islamic Revolution,
[00:26:00] Ayatollah Mujtaba Khamenei, institution. this transformation by
[00:26:04] appointing experienced commanders such as brigadier general Ahmad Wahidi
[00:26:08] to lead the IRGC, tasking them with strengthening deterrents
[00:26:11] through powerful offensive operations. The difference
[00:26:15] between these two doctrines lies exactly here:
[00:26:19] defensive doctrine waits to absorb a blow before
[00:26:22] retaliating, while an offensive doctrine allows Iran
[00:26:26] to neutralize a threat before it ever reaches execution.
[00:26:30] Under this new doctrine, Iran response to any aggression will not
[00:26:34] only be faster, but will exceed the scale the original attack. a
[00:26:37] practical example of this approach was Iran's strike on the US base in
[00:26:41] Jordan carried out before Washington formally joined Israel's assault,
[00:26:45] action Iranian commanders cite as a model of preemptive operations. This
[00:26:49] approach has pulled the axis of resistance out of purely reactive
[00:26:52] posture and turn it into actor capable of shaping the battlefield in
[00:26:56] advance. What we are witnessing here is not merely a change in
[00:27:00] weaponry,
[00:27:00] it is a complete redefinition. of Iran's position in the
[00:27:04] balance of power across West Asia, the era when Iran
[00:27:08] simply held its borders is over. Today, any act of
[00:27:11] aggression against Iranian sovereignty will draw a response
[00:27:15] that extends well beyond those borders, clear message to
[00:27:19] Washington and Tel Aviv that the age of hit and run is
[00:27:23] not
[00:27:23] returning.