PRESSTV — broadcast 20261011 043000 UTC 498 transcript segments Google Speech-to-Text API Automatic Transcription (Chirp) Data courtesy of The GDELT Project (https://www.gdeltproject.org/), from the Internet Archive TV News Archive. Machine transcription. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a verbatim quotation record. [00:00:00] elections, doesn't the [00:00:02] of previous 40-day momming campaign tell us that this campaign is [00:00:06] unlikely to work as well. there's [00:00:11] of another reason to [00:00:12] of doubt that this air campaign will work, and it has to do with the three [00:00:16] carriers argument. as I said, the clear [00:00:20] implication is that once the USS Teddy Roosevelt gets [00:00:23] there, that carrier [00:00:25] in addition to the USS, George Washington and the USS, [00:00:29] George W.W. "bush will give us three carriers [00:00:32] which can be used to attack Iran. But if [00:00:36] you [00:00:37] of actually look carefully of what's happening here, [00:00:40] it's apparent that the Roosevelt [00:00:44] is [00:00:45] of being sent to the Gulf region to [00:00:48] replace the George Washington. It's not [00:00:52] going to be sent there to work alongside the George [00:00:55] Washington, it's being sent there to replace it, further [00:00:59] more. pretend that the Bush, pretend that the [00:01:03] Bush, the USS, George W.W. Bush, is still in the [00:01:07] region. The fact is, it [00:01:09] a has left the region and it is now in Thailand, [00:01:13] and indeed, there is only one aircraft carrier in the [00:01:17] Gulf at this point in time. I shouldn't say in the Gulf, in the [00:01:21] Gulf region, because we wouldn't dare put a carrier inside the [00:01:24] Gulf, for fear it would be sank almost immediately, so it's in the [00:01:28] region, okay? so we only have one carrier there and that of [00:01:32] course is the Washington and the Roosevelt once it gets [00:01:36] there is designed to replace the [00:01:39] Washington. This tells you that we're [00:01:43] going to end up with only one carrier in the [00:01:47] region, not three carriers. Now you say to yourself, well we [00:01:51] could always move two [00:01:52] of the carriers back into the region and bring it up to [00:01:56] three. I don't think that's true. I think the most you can hope... [00:02:00] for as two carriers in the region, but even there you're going to [00:02:04] have all sorts of problems and [00:02:05] the reason is quite simple: the problem [00:02:09] is though that the navy has been, well [00:02:12] that the navy has been working [00:02:15] of at for months now, is so great that it's [00:02:19] put huge demands on the US navy. US naval [00:02:22] commanders are constantly saying that [00:02:25] of this tempo cannot be sustained over the long-term, we're [00:02:29] pushing the... navy to the brink, so the idea that you can bring back [00:02:33] three carriers and keep them there [00:02:35] of for sustained [00:02:36] of bombing campaign, I don't think that's correct. I think [00:02:39] of you'd be lucky if you can get two carriers there, and as I said, [00:02:43] even if you get two carriers there, just think about what happened with the [00:02:46] 40-day bombing campaign. Think about the fact that we have a [00:02:50] هذا significant shortage of munitions, what are those two carriers going [00:02:54] to do to bring the Iranians to their [00:02:57] knees? There's another problem you want to... think about, and that [00:03:01] is the fact that because we've lost naval bases in [00:03:05] the Gulf [00:03:06] of region, we are heavily dependent a [00:03:09] of supply structure that reaches back to Diego [00:03:12] Garcia, which is 2,500 miles [00:03:15] away. The logistical [00:03:18] of requirements of sustaining three [00:03:20] of carriers in the Persian Gulf region [00:03:23] are very, very great, very [00:03:27] difficult to do. So see, from [00:03:30] logistical point of view, and from the point [00:03:34] of view [00:03:35] of the state [00:03:36] of the US Navy [00:03:37] a today, sustaining three carriers for any appreciable period [00:03:41] of time is going to be extremely difficult [00:03:43] of if not impossible, then my final point [00:03:47] here is that some might say [00:03:51] that there's [00:03:51] a simple solution to this problem, John, and that is [00:03:54] of that of what we need to do is use that carrier-based air [00:03:58] and other air asset. [00:04:00] in the region to strike oil [00:04:03] infrastructure inside of [00:04:06] Iran and wreck [00:04:09] a in all of the oil infrastructure that Iran has and in effect [00:04:13] wreck the Iranian economy for the [00:04:16] long-term. The problem [00:04:19] of here is [00:04:19] that the Iranians have second strike capability. The reason that we have not [00:04:23] attacked [00:04:24] of Iranian oil infrastructure [00:04:26] in any meaningful way up to now, is our... fear that [00:04:30] the Iranians will do the same to the oil infrastructure [00:04:34] inside [00:04:35] of the various gulf states and inside Israel as [00:04:39] well, [00:04:40] this is major problem, so you want to remember that [00:04:44] Iran has second strike capability if you really want to play hard [00:04:48] ball and go after its energy infrastructure, [00:04:52] so that's the air dimension, now let's turn [00:04:55] to the ground dimension, [00:04:59] the military... [00:05:00] of [00:05:01] being brought in for a possible invasion of [00:05:04] Iran. I mean, the reason you would bring additional [00:05:08] ground forces into the region is because you're going to [00:05:11] threaten. to invade Iran, and in fact there is [00:05:15] lot of talk in the mainstream media about that, many [00:05:19] people see these 10,000 additional forces that [00:05:23] are coming into the region top the 50,00 that are already [00:05:27] there, as evidence that we're finally getting [00:05:30] serious about invading [00:05:34] Iran, this is not a serious [00:05:37] argument, the thing you want to remember about [00:05:41] that number, [00:06:15] to fight against Iran on the ground [00:06:19] to invade Iran, so what we have to [00:06:23] do [00:06:23] is we have to look at that number of [00:06:27] 60,000 and figure out how many of those [00:06:30] 6000 troops are in combat units that can be used [00:06:34] to invade Iran. I [00:06:38] think [00:06:39] that at the most there are... [00:06:42] 7,500 troops at the most, [00:06:46] 7,500 troops that could be used [00:06:50] to invade Iran inside that [00:06:53] 60,000 number. now how do I get to that [00:06:56] number? first of all, if you look at [00:07:00] these 10,000 troops that are being [00:07:04] sent to the Middle East, 10,000 troops [00:07:07] being sent to the Middle East, along with the carrier, the USS, [00:07:11] Teddy Roosevelt. those 10,000 troops, there are [00:07:15] only about 2,200 troops among the [00:07:19] two, among the 10,000 who can be used [00:07:23] in a combat operation involving [00:07:26] invasion of Iranian territory, there's [00:07:30] a marine expeditionary unit right, [00:07:34] the 13th marine expeditionary unit that is [00:07:38] inside those 10,000 troops [00:07:41] and that marine expeditionary unit includes [00:07:45] 2,200 troops. the rest [00:07:48] the troops, uh, the rest the military [00:07:52] forces among that number of 10,000 are [00:07:56] sailors on the Roosevelt, [00:07:59] sailors on uh, the other [00:08:03] ships that are coming along with the Roosevelt. they're not combat [00:08:07] troops that could be used to invade Iran. there are only [00:08:10] 2,200 troops. among the 10 [00:08:14] thousand that can be used for that purpose. now let's talk about the [00:08:18] 50,00 troops inside the middle [00:08:21] east at this point in time before the 1000 additional troops [00:08:25] arrive. if you look at those [00:08:28] 50,000 troops, there's a marine [00:08:31] expeditionary unit already there in the middle east, this [00:08:35] is the 11th meu, that's another [00:08:38] 2,200. there are approximately. [00:08:42] trops there from the [00:08:46] 82 airborne, and i would guess [00:08:50] that there are another 800, there are another [00:08:53] 800 troops there that have [00:08:57] been period of time before the war started, i think they're [00:09:01] about 800 ground forces in and around [00:09:04] kuwait, [00:09:06] so that tells you that in [00:09:07] the region you have right now you [00:09:09] have 2.2,ous marines. you have [00:09:13] 20 troops in the 82 [00:09:16] airborne, another 800 in [00:09:19] this military force that's been there for a long [00:09:23] time, and then of course coming into the region you have another [00:09:26] 2.2 th00 troops, and if you add this [00:09:29] all up, it's slightly under 7,500 [00:09:33] troops, those are the combat forces that are [00:09:37] available for invasion of [00:09:41] Iran. Now the question you have to ask yourself is, [00:09:45] what can you do with 7,500 troops? I like [00:09:49] to say, even if you multiplied that by two and you [00:09:52] got to 15,000 uh, or you multiplied [00:09:56] it by three, and you're up around 22,00, it [00:10:00] wouldn't make any difference, the force would be far [00:10:04] too small for purposes of [00:10:07] invading Iran. Now, why do I say this? [00:10:11] General Barry. Caffrey, four star retired US [00:10:15] Army general, who has looked carefully at this [00:10:18] issue, maintains that you would need a force [00:10:22] of 150,000. combat troops, [00:10:26] 150,00 combat troops, and you would have to [00:10:30] fight somewhere between the to six [00:10:33] months just to take over the straight of hormoves. you want to think [00:10:37] about that? mccaffer [00:10:38] is talking about the number of troops that are required to take over the straight of [00:10:42] hormoz, and he's telling you you need [00:10:44] 150,000 and you're going to fight for three to six [00:10:48] months. what do we have? i think we have [00:10:52] about 7,500 troops at the most. [00:10:55] Maybe if you double that you get up to 1500, but do [00:10:59] you really think that 1500, which is 1/10 the number [00:11:03] that mcaffry is using [00:11:05] is capable of taking the straight of hor moves, and then of course [00:11:09] you have to sustain those troops there over the long-term, which is [00:11:13] no easy task. Let me just illustrates the problem [00:11:17] here, it illustrates the problem here, when the [00:11:21] Russians invaded Ukraine in. [00:11:25] of 2022, i estimate that the Russian army went in [00:11:29] with about 190,00 troops, 19000 [00:11:33] troops, that was not [00:11:35] enough to to [00:11:38] take take and keep all the [00:11:41] territory that they initially conquered, right? [00:11:44] 19000 was not [00:11:46] enough, and you want to [00:11:49] remember that Iran that [00:11:53] Iran has twice. the population of [00:11:56] Ukraine and [00:11:58] the is much more formidable for the invading force [00:12:02] than the terrain in Ukraine has been for the Russian [00:12:06] attacking forces, so the [00:12:09] idea that we can invade [00:12:13] Iran or take back the straight of [00:12:17] warm with 7,500 troops is [00:12:21] simply not a serious argument. [00:12:26] points to drive this [00:12:29] home, first of all, can you [00:12:32] imagine what the public reaction [00:12:36] would [00:12:36] be in the United States if American soldiers start coming [00:12:40] back in body bags in large numbers? the [00:12:43] opposition to this war is already great, there was [00:12:47] significant opposition to this war as soon as it started, [00:12:51] and if anything [00:12:52] it is increased with time. if... This point [00:12:56] President Trump decides to launch a ground invasion and launch [00:13:00] a ground invasion and large numbers of Americans die [00:13:04] won't even succeed, won't even succeed, the [00:13:07] public outcry would be huge. One additional [00:13:11] point, to actually get those marines [00:13:14] in those two marine expeditionary [00:13:18] units, remember the 13th marine [00:13:22] expeditionary unit is coming into the region and the 11th. [00:13:55] ships like those amphibious carriers anywhere near the [00:13:58] Iranian coast for fear that the Iranians will launch cruise [00:14:02] missile and sync the ship. so the question i would ask is [00:14:06] how [00:14:07] are we going to get those marines who are on those amphibious [00:14:11] carriers onto the beaches? this is going to be a [00:14:14] formidable problem to put it mildly. but [00:14:18] again, even if you get the marines onto the beaches in the [00:14:22] final analysis, it's not going to matter. because the fact is [00:14:26] we don't have enough troops [00:14:30] to invade Iran and win [00:14:33] any meaningful way. [00:14:37] now let me switch from talking about the military [00:14:41] dimension to talking about the economic [00:14:45] dimension uh [00:14:49] the and start with the claims administration that we are inflicting massive [00:14:52] pain on the... and they are about [00:14:56] to surrender, there is no question that the [00:15:00] United States is inflicting massive pain on [00:15:04] Iran, there's no question that the blockade and the [00:15:08] best in strategy, and everything we did before this war [00:15:11] started has served to [00:15:14] punish the Iranian people in [00:15:18] significant ways, we have done enormous damage [00:15:22] to the Iranian economy. I have no doubt about [00:15:26] that, but about that, but the [00:15:30] question we have to ask ourselves, that given all that pain, [00:15:34] the Iranians are about to throw up their hands. [00:15:38] and surrender, I don't think so, [00:15:42] and I think there are three good reasons that this is not [00:15:46] going to work. The first has to do with the historical [00:15:49] record. I do not know of a single case in the [00:15:53] historical record where you had major [00:15:56] war and where one [00:15:59] side was able to bring the other [00:16:02] side to surrender ths [00:16:06] alone. through ins alone, through a [00:16:10] blockade alone. There's no question, for example, that in World [00:16:14] War I, uh, the blockade by Britain and the [00:16:17] United States at the end of World War I, had [00:16:21] devastating effect on Germany and its allies, [00:16:24] especially Austria-Hungary, and it played role for [00:16:28] sure, in causing Germany to surrender on [00:16:32] November 11th, 1918. No question, the blockade mattered, [00:16:36] but as everybody knows, from August 1st, [00:16:39] 1914, up until November 11th, [00:16:42] 1918, you had huge [00:16:46] ground war, not only on the western front, but also [00:16:50] on the eastern front, many millions of Germans [00:16:54] and allied soldiers died in that [00:16:57] conflict, so [00:16:59] it wasn't the blockade alone that caused the Germans [00:17:03] to throw up their hands, it was the ground war uh that [00:17:06] was main responsible, the ground war on the western front, the ground war on the [00:17:10] eastern front, we have no ground war here, and I don't even [00:17:14] think we have viable air war. uh, so what [00:17:18] we're counting on here basically up to this point [00:17:22] um is using a blockade plus the [00:17:25] besten strategy uh to bring Iran [00:17:29] to its knees, but again, there's no historical [00:17:33] example that tells us that we should be confident this is going to [00:17:37] work. "the second reason it's not going to work in my [00:17:41] opinion is that the United States and Israel of course [00:17:44] uh present an existential threat to uh [00:17:48] Iran. President Trump has recently talked about [00:17:51] annihilating Iran, by my count, on at least [00:17:55] seven occasions he has talked in effect about [00:17:59] annihilating Iran, wiping it off the map [00:18:03] the earth. Uh, the Iranian surely [00:18:06] understand." that this is an existential threat that they [00:18:10] are facing when they go to war against the United States, [00:18:14] and if you're facing an existential threat, you fight to the last [00:18:18] person. It's hard for me to imagine the Iranians [00:18:22] surrendering, even though they are suffering [00:18:25] greatly because of US [00:18:28] economic policies towards Iran. I fully understand that, but [00:18:32] they are facing an existential threat, and again, when you face an existential [00:18:36] threat,... "I make the argument that surrender is not an [00:18:40] option. My final point is [00:18:44] that let's assume I'm wrong. Let's assume that the [00:18:48] economic sanctions are so so [00:18:51] formidable, so damaging to Iran that it [00:18:55] understands that it is at the end of its rope, it it [00:18:59] can't go on. What happens [00:19:03] then is that the Iranians will escalate. The [00:19:06] Iranians have..." a retaliatory option [00:19:09] here, they can strike out at the [00:19:13] energy infrastructure all across the [00:19:17] gulf and in Israel itself, and [00:19:21] they have the ability to do enormous damage. further more, they [00:19:25] can strike out at the desalination plants all [00:19:28] across the region and do enormous [00:19:32] damage to countries like Saudi Arabia, [00:19:35] Kuwait, and even... [00:19:39] again, the Iranians, if they're pushed to their [00:19:42] limit, will retaliate, and if they retaliate, they will do [00:19:46] enormous damage, not only each of those [00:19:50] countries that they target, one could argue that if they after Saudi [00:19:53] Arabia [00:19:54] is oil infrastructure, and it's desalination [00:19:57] plants, they can basically ruin Saudi Arabia as a functioning [00:20:01] society, but it's more than that, the consequences for the [00:20:05] international economy of Iran launching a full-scale [00:20:09] attack on energy infrastructure and desalination [00:20:12] plants all across the middle east or all across the [00:20:16] Persian Gulf region would be [00:20:18] devastating, so I [00:20:21] think that we should probably hope that we don't [00:20:25] end up pushing Iran to the point where it [00:20:29] turns to that Doomsday [00:20:31] response. Now let's talk a little [00:20:35] bit about what's happening on. side the equation, [00:20:39] because you want to remember the economic argument has two dimensions to it, one [00:20:43] is that we are throttling the Iranian [00:20:46] economy, pushing the Iranians [00:20:48] to the point where they just have. to quit, that's the first part, but the second part [00:20:52] the argument is that we are doing very well, and in fact, as I [00:20:56] said before, if you look at the amount of oil [00:21:00] that's coming out the gulf, we're basically approaching [00:21:04] pre-war levels, and if anything, the situation just gets [00:21:08] better with time, this is the conventional [00:21:10] wisdom. Two points on [00:21:13] this: number one, you want to understand [00:21:17] that the Iranians... [00:21:21] are not just sitting there and letting this happen, [00:21:24] and in fact there's a piece on the wall street journal [00:21:28] today that says, this is the headline in the wall street [00:21:32] journal, new straight attacks [00:21:36] threaten oil flow, and what the wall street [00:21:39] journal says in the story is [00:21:42] that the Iranians have adjusted to the existing [00:21:45] situation, and you're getting new attacks and more. [00:21:50] sophisticated and more effective attacks by the Iranians [00:21:54] and the flow of oil is beginning to slow [00:21:57] down to take this a step further, as everyone [00:22:01] knows, there is the war involving Iran on one [00:22:05] side in the United States on the other side, but there's also [00:22:09] a war between Saudi Arabia [00:22:11] and [00:22:14] the Hutis are attacking oil installations inside of [00:22:18] Saudi Arabia and "there were reports [00:22:21] in today's [00:22:25] newspapers that the Saudis, excuse me, that the [00:22:28] hooties have hit the oil [00:22:30] pipeline that Saudi Arabia depends [00:22:34] heavily to get oil out [00:22:38] to the red sea and out into global [00:22:41] markets, and further more, there are all sorts of [00:22:45] Saudi installations, oil [00:22:48] installations. that are big fat vulnerable [00:22:52] targets that the hoothies can go after, and they may very [00:22:56] well go after, because the war between the Hutis and the [00:22:59] Saudis is heating up, so if you think [00:23:03] about the flow of oil out the Gulf, which is [00:23:06] admittedly moving at rates [00:23:10] that are not that far away from what the rate was on February [00:23:13] 207th, you see that we are probably [00:23:17] headed back in the other direction because the fact that the [00:23:21] Iranians are becoming more effective at cutting down the flow of [00:23:24] oil out the Gulf, and the Hutis are threatening, [00:23:28] critically important targets in Saudi Arabia that will [00:23:32] reduce the Saudi's ability to export [00:23:35] oil. It's hard to say exactly where this situation is [00:23:39] headed, but there's no reason to think it's [00:23:43] going to remain as favorable down the road as it [00:23:47] is today. But even if it [00:23:51] does not change much at all, and lots of oil [00:23:54] continues to come out the Gulf as it's been happening for [00:23:58] the past two or so weeks. Is this really going to [00:24:02] matter? I'm not sure it is. If you look at [00:24:06] inflation rates around the world, especially the [00:24:10] reports that are now coming out on inflation rates in Europe, [00:24:13] if you look at oil prices in the United States and other [00:24:17] places, if you look at bond deal. right, [00:24:21] if you look at the cost of diesel, if you look at the [00:24:25] cost of getting a mortgage here in the United States, if you look at all these [00:24:28] economic indicators, all the evidence is that even though [00:24:32] oil has been flowing out the Gulf, we are still, we are [00:24:36] still in deep economic trouble, and there's hardly [00:24:40] anybody I see in the media arguing that all these [00:24:43] problems, or most these problems are going to be solved anytime [00:24:47] soon, all of this is to say, "the [00:24:51] western economies and not only the western economies, [00:24:54] economies and countries in Asia, even more so, are [00:24:58] in deep trouble as result of what's happening in the Gulf, [00:25:02] and there is no evidence that this restoration [00:25:06] of oil flows out the Gulf to [00:25:10] levels that approximate what we had on February 27th, have [00:25:13] done much to solve the [00:25:16] problem uh." [00:25:20] bottom line: the bottom line is this propaganda [00:25:24] campaign is not going to work. again, the propaganda campaign has [00:25:28] two dimensions to it, one is the military dimension, and as I made [00:25:32] clear, we are not going [00:25:36] to be able to bring the Iranians to their [00:25:39] knees with the addition of a US [00:25:43] aircraft carrier in the region, even if we [00:25:47] end up with three carriers there, which is... highly [00:25:50] unlikely, the idea that we're going to be able to [00:25:54] bring the Iranians to their knees with a land [00:25:57] invasion is, I think it's fair to say, [00:26:01] laughable argument. "this is not going to happen [00:26:04] uh, it's hard to believe that President Trump would be foolish enough to launch a [00:26:08] land invasion, but if he does, he's not going to [00:26:11] succeed, and it's just going to make his situation worse, [00:26:15] all this is to say we have no military option here, we have no [00:26:19] military option today, and we're not going to have a military option after the [00:26:23] mid-term elections. there's no question, the [00:26:26] administration can spin a story that says we will have [00:26:30] that option, and there's no question of..." "the mainstream media will play along [00:26:34] with that, but facts are [00:26:36] facts and uh, the fact [00:26:40] is here, we don't have a military option. with [00:26:44] regarding, with regard to the economic side the [00:26:47] equation, again, there's no question that the United States is [00:26:51] inflicting massive pain on the [00:26:53] Iranians, but as I said, there's no evidence that [00:26:57] that has brought them to the point where they're close to [00:27:00] surrendering, there's nothing. historical record that makes us think [00:27:04] that should be the case, and if I'm wrong, [00:27:08] and it does become the case, and they feel like they're about to go off [00:27:12] cliff, they'll take everybody off that cliff with them, and that will [00:27:16] be disastrous for the international economy, it'll be [00:27:19] disastrous for President Trump, and in no way will he be able [00:27:23] to say that he won. The bottom line [00:27:26] again, is that the facts tell [00:27:30] us that this propaganda? campaign is not going [00:27:34] to work uh that you cannot [00:27:36] bamboosle the Iranians uh [00:27:40] at this point in time they're just too smart, they're too knowledgeable, they're [00:27:44] too experienced in dealing with the United States uh to [00:27:48] allow themselves to be conned into thinking uh that we [00:27:52] have the upper hand, [00:27:54] that they're on the verge of defeat, and therefore it's time for them to throw up [00:27:58] their hands and [00:27:59] surrender. [00:28:33] نحن الحمد لله بنصبر ابنائنا [00:28:36] بنصبرهم على ان شاء الله بنقول لهم يما بصير [00:28:40] مستقبل قدامكم احسن من هذه الحياه اللي نحن [00:28:43] عايشينها بس نحن لازم نصبر على هذا [00:28:47] لانه هذا بلاء والحمد لله من رب العالمين بدنا الصبر [00:28:51] نصبر عشان ان شاء الله الاحتلال مش [00:28:54] حيدوم 15 times [00:28:57] honestly [00:29:00] what [00:29:01] it means to be displaced 15 times. "the problem with western feminism I think [00:29:05] is more that it doesn't link the struggle of for [00:29:09] example Palestine, Iran, wherever, to the fight [00:29:13] against imperialism, and if you don't fight against [00:29:16] imperialism, then um, you're not really [00:29:19] tackling the root the problem, tackling the root the [00:29:23] problem." [00:29:58] This our stop headlines: Iran slams Trump's claim about [00:30:02] an attack on the American soil saying US leaders [00:30:05] conjure up an imaginary enemy to frighten their own [00:30:08] people. Despite [00:30:12] earlier denials, the Pentagon admits that the number of troops killed in the [00:30:16] aggression against Iran is higher than previously reported with [00:30:19] nearly 900 injuries. And [00:30:23] finally, new poll shows the French president's popularity has fallen to the [00:30:27] lowest level since 2017, amid violent protests and [00:30:31] cost of living.